The Ukraine conflict may end in a capitulation, not in a brokered offer. That gives me an idea of where the conflict is going and why the events are unable to reach a compromise.
The latest blemish in the missing negotiating story is a declaration , in the form of an exam given by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the , Philadelphia Inquirer.  ,  ,
In the interview, Zelensky said there , ca n’t be direct negotiations , between Ukraine and Russia but there could be indirect negotiations through a third party. In Zelensky’s proposed situation, the third group may serve as an entity and any offer will only be with the middleman, no between Russia or Ukraine. The UN had play this role, according to Zellensky.
The Zelensky plan is a non-starter for a number of factors, but the most important being that all conflicting states must come to an agreement before the issue can be resolved.  ,
There is no hope of a third party implementing any deal, as the failed Minsk agreements ( 2014, 2015 ) proved. In a hybrid case, Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE ) signed the deal.  ,
The OSCE proved incapable and willing to try to impose the Minsk accords, and Ukraine refused to follow through on the agreement. Germany and France both supported the agreement, but neither was officially required to do so in any way.  ,
Zelensky’s “proposal” really is just another ruse to distract criticism of Ukraine for not wanting a negotiation with Russia. Zelensky is being kept out of the negotiating table by three powerful troops.  ,
The most crucial aspect is that any agreements with Russia are opposed by the two major Anglo-Saxon players in NATO, specifically the US and the UK. The US has tried everything, including imposing sanctions and diplomatic methods, to halt any discussions with Russia on anything other than slave exchanges.  ,  ,
The second reason is Ukrainian policy, sponsored by Zelensky, prohibiting agreements with Russia. If Zelensky requested them to do so, the Verkhovna Rada ( Ukraine’s parliament ), which is likely to do so, could rescind the legislation in a split second.  ,
Zelensky absolutely controls the Ukrainian legislature, has arrested or exiled opposition lawmakers, and controls the media and other multimedia. Zelensky’s iron fist means that he wo n’t personally allow direct negotiations.
Zelensky even has signed , a order prohibiting any negotiations , with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.
The second reason relates to stress on Zelensky from difficult- right nationalists, including particularly the neo- Nazi Azov brigade. The best captain of Kiev’s troops in the Kharkov region, Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol, was fired, providing strong evidence for this.
Sodol was  , accused by Azov regiment leaders , of killing more Russians than the Russians in the Kharkov wars. Zelensky obliged them by firing Sodol after Azov sent their concept to the Rada.
Since Sodol’s departure, Ukraine’s situation has worsened along the full line of contact.  , Russian war costs are extremely large, with as many as 2, 000 killed and wounded on some nights.
The Russians have stepped up their attacks with FAB fly bombs, including the monster , FAB- 3000 , which only hit a Russian military command center in the Donbas town of , New York , and apparently killed 60 or more Russian military personnel.
Because Zelensky’s term of office expired in May, according to the Russians, he is no longer a feasible communicating partner. Since Zelensky served his name, there is some misunderstanding about the legal system in Ukraine, but experts from both inside and outside the country believe that the country’s leaders may be elevated to the position of the Rada.  ,  ,
Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speech of the Rada, is becoming more socially active, despite his opposition to Zelensky’s continued rule.
However, given the battle situation, the Russians no uncertainty determine that the time may soon arrive when the Russian army either collapses or surrenders, or both.  ,
In either case, Russia will need to choose a temporary military command to replace the Russian authorities in some way. That would enable the Russians to come up with a surrender plan for a new government.
NATO’s extended involvement in Ukraine would be difficult if the army of Ukraine surrendered and there was agreement with a Russia-appointed government.
When NATO understands what happened and why, that could lead to a security discourse between NATO and Russia. However, loading NATO with has- been political leaders like Marc Rutte does no bode well for the future of the empire.  ,
The crucial message for NATO if the Russians win in Ukraine is that the security alliance may prevent expanding and look for a more robust relationship with Russia in Europe, as seems to be more and more probable.
Stephen Bryen is Asia Times ‘ senior correspondent. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff director and its deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.  ,
This , article , was first published on his , Weapons and Strategy , Substack and is republished with permission.