In Kursk, the Russians were discovered with their trousers down. The Ukrainians pulled off a large-scale war using new methods.
They advanced much into Russian country, largely unchallenged, or countered only by some inexperienced regional models. They used drone power, but not any other air power, primarily because they lack it ( despite the symbolic F-16s built in Romania ).
Russia has declared a , Federal Emergency , in the Kursk place.
This is written on the night of Friday, August 9. The war began on August 6 before the past Tuesday. The Russians are only just bringing up enough troops and specific users to try and stop the Russian advance, despite the Russians ‘ current assault on the Ukrainians.  ,
The Ukrainians and their NATO supporters also planned this out. Russian forces are attempting to hang onto country for as long as they can by digging in wherever they can.
According to Rybar, AFU troops, which include the 82nd and 80th independent air abuse regiments, are spearheading the attacks, with the assistance of the AFU’s 22nd and 61st individual automated brigades.
In contrast, the 150th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 5th Air Assault Brigade, 151st Territorial Defense Battalion and 24th Mountain Assault Brigade are participating in a restricted power.
The Russian area is still rather confused. In recent months, the general direction of Kursk and the northern region has changed hands, creating confusion and preparing void.  ,
The Russians are reportedly bringing up fresh forces ( so far not named ), including units known as “fire brigades” . , These are assault spetsnaz-type units that are well-trained and effective.
Everyone knows that sooner or later the Ukrainians, despite the addition of supply army, will be driven out of Soviet territory. But that will take time, and” sooner” and “later” had special meaning in the context of the objectives of the invasion, a subject I may return to above.
Russia’s lack of preparedness is the subject of a lot of censure. Without a doubt, the Russian General Command did nothing to stop Ukrainian war preparations or even gave them advance notice.
A number of advances that both have already occurred or are about to occur are definitely at the forefront of the large focus on major victories by Russian forces, particularly in Donbass.  ,
The top Russian military commanders did not consider the Kursk preparations to be particularly concerning because of the uber-command target and the discovery that Ukraine needed all the troops it could summon to prevent Soviet advances.
Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the general staff, is drenched in a lot of hot water. Vladimir Putin presided over two meetings of the Russian Security Council, during which Gerasimov provided updates on the condition in Kursk.  ,
The reviews that were made to the press were incredibly positive and suggested a positive outcome.  , It was and is no. There are some video clips of Putin frowning as Gerasmov spoke, though we are n’t sure what else Gerasimov had to say or what Putin retorted. He was able to demonstrate to him that he uttered no nonsense about what Gerasimov was saying.
Two other problems in the Kherson region were planned to coordinate with the Kursk strike. These episodes featured marine flights. The second took place on August 6 on the , Tendra Spit, then at evening on August 8 on the Kinburn Peninsula.  ,
The attacks made significant use of electronic warfare and drones, including Baba Yaga drones that have six rotors and have a large 33-pound bomb. Four abuse boats and two Baba Yaga drones were lost by the Ukrainians. The attacking forces were defeated, but only one boat was able to get. The escape failed, despite being successful in thwarting both problems.  ,  ,
For the history, the Russians have reported losses on the Russian side.  , The Russia Today (RT ) government news site, based on Russian Defense Ministry information,  , reports , that , Ukraine has lost up to 945 soldiers as well as 102 armored vehicles, including 12 tanks and 17 armored personnel carriers.
In the areas that border the Kursk Region, over 280 soldiers and 27 armoured vehicles have been killed in the last 24 hours.  , There is no data on Russian costs. Russia has been pounding the Russians with heat energy, including , fly bombs , equipped with precision-strike capacity.
Operational Priorities
Why do Ukraine consent to sacrificing so many soldiers in a” sooner or later” rollout activity? Here are the factors:
First, Ukraine’s ability to defend its place in Donbass is at a dead end, as the Russians are carrying out relentless attacks carefully dislodging Ukraine’s defenses, yet in built-up towns with high-rise masonry and steel buildings as powerful positions for Ukraine’s troops.
On a daily basis, Ukraine has been losing around 1, 000 troops (killed and wounded ) and morale in some brigades has likely gone to near zero. The losses, even though Ukraine does its best to cover them up, pervade society.  ,
Much of the resistance to Ukraine’s new draft laws is the sense that raw, newly-recruited troops will be thrown into combat as “meat” brigades and slaughtered. The majority of the front-line Ukrainian brigades are far below capacity, and many of their experienced fighters have been eliminated.
Secondly, Ukraine’s leadership is under considerable Western pressure to negotiate with Russia, something that even President Volodymyr Zelensky has acknowledged.
While Zelensky keeps promoting some sort of , multi-nation peace conference, with Russia invited to the next one, the Russians have made it clear , they are not interested. Zelensky is also being pressured by the Russians because they claim that he is no longer Ukraine’s elected leader and therefore not a qualified interlocutor.
Zelensky is also aware of the serious problems that Donald Trump faces if he wins in November. Trump is saying that,  , even before he actually takes office, if he wins he is going to solve the Ukraine problem.
Ukraine counters that they may be forced to give up a lot of territory in the present and that they have little leverage at the moment. There is little hope ( despite a great desire ) for NATO to intervene, and Ukraine cannot continue the conflict for very long. Rightly so, Ukraine worries that it wo n’t be able to stand alone.
Thus, Ukraine’s use of the Kursk offensive as a leverage in a peace negotiation is viewed as a gamble.
Russia is very sensitive in Kursk. The Soviet Union’s pivotal moment in World War II was the Kursk conflict, which ultimately led to the Wehrmacht’s defeat.
The biggest tank battle in history is still being held today, one of the most expensive fights of World War II. Boris Sokolov , places the Russian losses at 450, 000 killed, 50, 000 missing ( POWs ) and 1.2 million wounded throughout the course of the battle.
If Ukraine can hold Russian territory, perhaps for a few months, they can use it as a trading card with Russia. But more is involved, and this should not be overlooked.
NATO and Ukraine have collaborated to create the strategies and tactics used at Kursk. In the event of a Russian attack, it serves as a test case for Europe’s defense.
Why is this so?  , NATO, in its present configuration, is in a bad place when it comes to defending territory. If fighting were to break out in Poland, or Romania, or north in the Baltics, the Russians would have a significant , advantage in ground forces.  ,
A strategy to counteract that would be the kind of operation Ukraine is currently testing in the Kursk region. A wider European conflict that is likely to focus on St. Petersburg or even Moscow would have a similar pattern.
There are other factors in Ukraine’s operation that may play a role, such as the , Sudzha Gas Metering station. The station, located on the Russia-Ukraine border several kilometers from the Russian town of Sudzha, handles all gas flowing from Russia to Europe. It is located about five miles inside Russia’s border with Ukraine.  ,
There is rumor that Ukraine may decide to destroy the station, despite the country’s claim that it currently controls it. If that occurs, Europe will need to export US-sourced LNG. If Ukraine can hold onto the gas metering station, like the Kursk operation as a whole, it will serve as a bargaining card. If they blow it up, Russia and Europe will have an economic problem.
The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, which is much further inland than the Gas Metering Station, is another potential target. Moreover, any attack on the power plant could cause a Chernobyl-type disaster that would not help Ukraine ‘s , political position in Europe.
Even so, the Ukrainian press is making speculative reports about the power plant’s future and suggesting that Russians have decided to install more security around the facility.
The key question is whether the Kursk operation will be successful for Ukraine. Much depends on how quickly the Russian response and Ukrainian forces can penetrate and hold back.
While the operation is military, the hoped-for outcome is political. It is undoubtedly a significant gamble. It discredits the systematic and stodgy strategy of Russian territorial conquerance.  ,
But if it fails prematurely, it runs the risk of a sizable reaction and complete defeat. It’s unclear how quickly the Ukrainians will approach Russia and whether or not they will accept the offer.
At Asia Times, Stephen Bryen is the senior correspondent. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff director and its deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.  ,
This , article , was first published on his , Weapons and Strategy , Substack and is republished with permission.