Trump’s Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg told , Reuters , that he’d like to see Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hold legislative and presidential primaries, though that site’s resources in Kyiv say that Washington has yet to officially make the request.
Ukrainian law requires that elections be held during times of conjugal union rules, requiring the need to first uphold it. That didn’t happen without a peace, yet, but therein lies the problem since Russia’s ceasefire conditions are also unethical to Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia, stated in a statement last June that Russia would stop hostilities once Ukraine withdrawn from all the country it now claims as its own and declares that it no longer wants to join NATO.
Negotiations may continue soon afterwards, but he , specified at the time , that they would have to be held with the parliamentary listener instead of Zelensky, whose constitutional term expired at the end of May per Putin’s checking of the Ukrainian Constitution. He then , reiterated this position , past week but with an additional spin.
According to Putin, Zelensky could also potentially participate in discussions, but he’d be useless to signal anything. This followed Zelensky ‘s , claim , that October 2022’s prohibition on talks with Russia applied to everyone but himself.
He therefore told the , Associated Press , over the weekend, around the same day as Kellogg’s interview with Reuters, that he is interested in resuming talks with Russia but doesn’t think that it wants a peace. Amidst these remarks from Kellogg, Putin and Zelensky were Trump’s.
He , claimed , that” We’re having very serious discussions ( with Russia ) about that war, trying to get it ended”, but said that he hadn’t yet talked to Putin about it, thus implying that talks are only taking place at the embassy level. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Rybakov , confirmed , on the same day that” there is no development” on organizing those leaders ‘ future visit.
However, their unavoidable talk will likely be about a peace and, specifically, the agreement Trump hopes to agent.
In order to ensure compliance with the ceasefire, he might ask: 1 ) Ukraine withdraws from Kursk and Donbas, the latter of which is at the center of the territorial dispute with Russia, but stays where it is everywhere else; 2 ) neither side rescinds its territorial claims to the other; 3 ) Ukraine holds its next elections; and 5 ) the new government begins peace talks with Russia after taking office.
Ukraine can be coerced into all this by threatening to withhold military aid , while , threats of maximally disbursing such to Ukraine alongside the imposition of maximum secondary sanctions against Russia’s top energy clients ( China , and , India ) could coerce it into compliance as well.
As an opportunity to Russia, which has been continuously advancing for the past two years, the US might consent to mobilise the” trans-Dnieper” place and place it under the command of non-Western soldiers.
That request forms one of the two hundred concessions that were analyzed on these pages , these  , and elaborated on in detail , around.
In order to convince Russia to accept a peace, its full implementation or some other variant thereof may prove crucial in terms of achieving this goal without Ukraine initially fully adhering to Putin’s demands from last June regarding its claim to all the place that Russia claims as its own. Trump’s diplomats had, so, do well to seriously consider this plan.
The previously mentioned threats could still be used as compulsions to encourage compliance if they can persuade Ukraine and Russia to accept a ceasefire, while carrots may involve more Ukrainian aid for reconstruction and gradual sanctions relief, increasing the chances that it will be implemented.
The US may yet consent to the US allowing the EU to resume pipeline fuel imports from Russia, whether through the last intact portion of Nord Stream or across Ukraine if Kyiv agrees. As part of the benefits of Russian compliance, the US may also agree to do so.
In terms of the successive election step in this process, the US might like that Zelensky never work for re-election; in addition, it may support one of his possible rivals as part of a “phased leadership transition” to facilitate a peace deal, which is premised on Putin wanting him out of the way.
Between the hypothetical ceasefire and Ukraine’s next elections, Zelensky might still participate in talks, but Russia wouldn’t allow him to sign anything, so he’d only take part in them for self-serving political reasons.
In any case, the legal changes that Russia’s stated objectives of restoring Ukraine’s constitutional neutrality and “denazifying” its society entail can only be advanced once the elections establish a new parliament, which could then bring these changes under US pressure ( the second goal perhaps only partially ).
Prior to that, the size of the armed forces could be curtailed in partial compliance with Russia’s demilitarization goal as a trust-building measure, but Russia ‘s , spring 2022 demands , might not ever be met in full.
Trump’s strategy to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine mostly depends on the latter’s agreement because the former can be much more coerced, necessitating pragmatic compromises that meet some of Putin’s ceasefire demands from last June.
This might include imposing sanctions on Russia on Ukraine, seriously considering a demilitarized” Trans-Dnieper” region under the control of non-Western peacekeepers, and promising gradual sanctions relief.
Putin might agree to these conditions if they are followed by threats to provide Ukraine with the most military aid and the enactment of the most severe secondary sanctions against China and India, two of Russia’s top energy clients.
Putin’s continually proven his preference for avoiding escalations, notably reaffirmed last November through , Russia’s unprecedented use of the hypersonic Oreshniks  , for de-escalation purposes vis-a-vis the US, while a sizeable share of Russia’s budgetary revenue is dependent on Asian energy imports.
If Trump agrees to the ceasefire terms that were discussed as well as the threatened consequences if Putin rejects them, these things will work in his favor.
A ceasefire will undoubtedly lead to peace, which will likely require some territorial concessions from Ukraine in order for Russia to agree to a compromise on Putin’s demands. Then new elections can be held to validate peace negotiations. The most likely scenario is to diplomatically end the conflict.
This , article , was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber , here.