President Donald Trump, on , Truth Social , and in interviews, is pushing the idea that Russia needs to hurry up and make a bargain on Ukraine before Trump, taking advantage of Russia’s financial problems, imposes higher taxes and additional sanctions on Russia.
To emphasize his own thinking about the absurdity of the Ukraine conflict, Trump says that Russia , has suffered over a million casualties , and Ukraine 800, 000.
Trump’s figures on deaths exceed also Ukraine’s wild projections of Russian deficits. The “official” range pushed by Ukraine’s Zelensky is Russia has suffered 812, 670 deaths to day, while , Ukraine has lost 43, 000 dying,  , according to Zelensky.
It is commonly accepted that , the ratio of maimed to dead , in the Ukraine war is running 3 to 1, but following Zelensky’s range, Ukraine has lost 129, 000 in full.
Don’t think Zelensky’s figures, as Ukrainian deaths are higher than he says.
Obviously, both parties present losses in their own words. The Ukrainians greatly exaggerate Russian loss, reassure their personal populace and their NATO supporters, while the Russians do not provide any numbers at all.
The best knowledge about Russian deaths comes from a group called Mediazona. Mediazona is a Russian separate media outlet that the Russian state has tried to shut down.
It is strongly anti-Putin.  , Mediazona’s report , on Soviet” confirmed killed” between February 24, 2022, and January 18, 2025, is 88, 726. Using the 3 to 1 amount, that may provide complete Russian deaths to 266, 178, or about one-fourth of what Trump has said.
Trump’s assessment of the Russian economy good echoes what US knowledge has told him. He appears to believe that Russia’s economy is about to decline, which prompts him to urge Putin to act quickly and negotiate a bargain or suffer the consequences.
The American media has been complete of reports that all have the same theme. Russia’s economy is in free drop and in a big issue. Following on from these” themes,” there are rumors that Putin is having domestic issues, has been angry with his financial advisors, and wants some sort of solution.
Anyone planning a costly war in a country where the value of the national currency has fallen abruptly, where interest rates are outrageously high, and where inflation is practically out of control, would normally be worried and alarmed. However, that does not imply that Putin or his ministers are in a state of panic or that the Russian state is about to fall.
The majority of these articles that appear in Eastern media reports lacking sources. Yet where they exist, they are direct. For instance, the pro-Ukraine , Daily Mail , reports that Oleg Vyugin, a former deputy president of the Central Bank of Russia says that” Russia, of course, is commercially engaged in negotiating a diplomatic end to the conflict”.
So far the best non-government review coming out of Russia was published in , Foreign Affairs , by Alexandra Propenenko. She is a colleague at Berlin’s Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. She worked at Russia’s central banks until early 2022. Putin’s claim that” Putin is not yet hungry” and that Ukraine’s economic suffering won’t reverse the course is persuasive.
She writes:” The concern for the West is timing. Democratic leaders want the conflict to stop right away. Some experts have even suggested that Putin will need to find an off-ramp in the coming weeks to stabilize the economy and keep his hold on power.
” But European aspirations sleep on a false notion. Russia’s financial difficulties are not yet so severe that they will have a significant impact on the conflict in the near future. The Kremlin should be able to prevent a full-blown problems from arising from its overheated business for at least the following year. Putin will most likely still have the resources to carry out his terrible campaign in Ukraine, as well as the motivation to hold off the West.
Russia correctly now has a labour shortage and entire career. Usually, an economy in trouble is characterized by persons out of work, small pay or no wages, and provide shortages, particularly consumer goods. Although imported goods and some local goods ( butter and eggs, for example ), are expensive but not in short supply, Russia has consumer goods.
Sanctions have opened the door for China, and Chinese goods, like cars, are less expensive than those from European countries. There is no denying that the conflict has caused the labor shortage, but it is difficult to determine how many. Wages are large and increasing.
Russia, in contrast to Europe, has no control over gasoline prices at home and is energy independent. In fact, the European markets are in worse shape than Russia in terms of employment, energy shortages, and fees due to the restrictions being imposed on Russia and the not-so-secret destruction of Soviet pipes ( as well as the arbitrary decision to not renew transit contracts for refineries through Ukraine ).
Germany is already in a crisis, but Russia is not. Some think that the German dollar, the Euro, is , living on borrowed period. The value of the Euro may be affected by additional financial decline in Germany and France.
If Russia decides to stop providing gas, oil, and LNG, Putin could significantly worsen the energy issue in Europe than Trump or with new taxes or other financial measures.
The torrent of information about Putin’s problems and Russia’s economy is a part of a circumstance promoted by Biden and his heavy state allies because they mistakenly believe that the US could force regime change in Russia. Trump appears to be supporting that strategy. However, it is contradictory because it only strengthens Russia’s resolve to win the Ukraine war.
Worse still, it harms Trump’s trust with Moscow in getting a bargain to end the war. Trump largely exempt from any connection to the Biden heavy state plan when he took business. He appeared to understand that his attempt to overthrow Putin and Moscow was ignorant and counterproductive. His method gave him an edge, coming into business without any Trump foreign policy bag, which he is now in danger of losing.
Trump and Putin’s anticipated telephone conversation has not taken place, and the White House and NSC have never made any plans to strike up a conversation with them. The reason why is clear.
Stephen Bryen is a former US assistant secretary of defense for plan and a unique journalist for Asia Times. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter , Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.