JAKARTA – Prabowo Subianto has been inaugurated as Indonesia’s seventh leader, marking the end of both cheerful President Joko Widodo’s ten years in office and Prabowo’s personal multi-decade search for the best work.
In his inaugural address to Indonesia’s parliament, Prabowo urged lawmakers and the country to be courageous in the face of difficulties and prioritize the needs of the Indian people over those of their own interests, including their own personal interests.
But, what can we truly expect for the next five times? On the campaign trail, Prabowo, when Widodo’s bitter enemy, vowed to be a devout heirs to his counterpart’s policies.
However, some people believe that the renowned former common will have his own plan on a number of fronts. A few key themes emerged in his inaugural address and afterwards cabinet picks, including the need for a strong international policy, an economics lean, a poverty-relief focus, and a potential shift to authoritarian rule.
European legislation
” In facing the global world, Indonesia chooses a free and effective way, non-aligned”, declared Prabowo, speaking to congress. ” So, we want to be associates with all nations, but we have principles, especially anti-colonialism because we have experienced conquest”.
In light of this, he continued to appoint Indonesia’s support for Arab independence, which the parliament greeted with loud cheers.
Indonesia’s theory of non-alignment paired loosely with a Fourth Worldist arrangement is regular fare, suggesting consistency with Widodo, and, indeed, the plans that have guided Indonesia since 1998. However, there are also indications that Prabowo may flame his own road.
Widodo generally let the foreign ministry run its own for ten years, leaving little interest in foreign affairs aside from their economic impact. Jokowi, however, takes a little closer individual interest and will probably seem to perform an active part on the world stage.
This is reflected in the recently appointed foreign secretary, Sugiono, a somewhat little-known secretary to Prabowo. In choosing Sugiono, Prabowo has broken with the post-1998 law of appointing a job minister to mind the government.
Prabowo appears to want a foreign minister with few, if any, ties to the strong government civil service.
Jokowi has urged people to play the role of an honest seller in international issues in his speeches. Most notably, at the Shangri La Dialogue in 2023, he surprised many with a proposed peace prepare for the Russia-Ukraine battle.
Defense geopolitics may also increase. In his capacity as Indonesia’s defence minister from 2019 to 2024, Prabowo oversaw the expansion of Garuda Shield drills with the US and the filing of a new military assistance deal with Australia.
Considerably, his views of the Quad and AUKUS, both seen as aimed at counterbalancing China in the Indo-Pacific, are considerably more comfortable than many in the Indonesian creation.
However, this should n’t be taken as Prabowo leaning toward the US and its allies in its purest form. However, Prabowo’s first overseas visit after his election this year was to China, a representation of both China’s need to judge Indonesia and Indonesia’s needed for Chinese funding to grow its business. His China trip was finally balanced out by subsequent trips to Malaysia and Japan.
Revisionist is anticipated to adopt a careful position on the Israel-Palestine debate. Unlike some in Indonesia, he declined to condemn techniques like Australia’s shift of its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
The Indonesian army has long had silent ties with Israeli rivals, giving the military a more amiable outlook on the nation than many in the foreign government. Public opinion may also give Prabowo a limited amount of room to maneuver.
Governmental development
Are we conscious that Indonesians also suffer from excessive hunger? In his annual conversation, Prabowoo asked the legislature. Prabowo made the main component of his plan to be fighting poverty and its effects.
His name promises in this case include free school meals for children and diet assistance for pregnant women. Additionally, he has pledged to construct three million fresh homes.
Some investors and economists are concerned about the potential value of these programs. There have been suggestions that the school meals program alone could end up costing some 400 trillion rupiah ($ 25.8 billion ) annually.
And according to comments made by various figures in the Prabowo camp, his government would be willing to allow the national debt to rise from 39 % to 50 % right now.
But, Prabowo has moved to try and alleviate those worries. Most notable is the request to keep Indonesia’s symbolic finance secretary, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who excelled under Widodo and his succeeding President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in her position.
Her reinstatement defied expectations that Prabowo may fire her because, according to reports, the two were at odds with one another over the defence budget.
But, if tensions between Prabowo and Sri Mulyani reappear, it is questionable how they will be handled. Widodo apparently played a vital role in persuading Prabowo to maintain her on. But as Widodo’s control wanes, but does Prabowo’s patience with a strong financing minister with a penchant for fiscal prudence.
Importantly, Prabowo’s brother – Thomas Djiwandono – is also staying on as assistant finance minister, a position he was appointed to in July 2024 to help ease the transition to Prabowo’s state. This ostensibly suggests that Prabowo may ultimately want his devoted associate in the finance department.
However, making room for extra saving on social programs may require cuts elsewhere. There have already been indications that Widodo may reduce his name infrastructure spending. And the government’s willingness to commit money to Widodo’s last megaproject, the new investment Nusantara, which is being constructed from scratch in Borneo, is a question mark.
Autarky and isolationism
” Brothers and sisters, I have made the declaration that Indonesia has eat a lot of food within the shortest amount of time. We ca n’t rely on external food sources. In a crisis, in a crucial position no one will help their items for us to buy”, Prabowo told congress.
” We also have to be self-sufficient in power. In a state of tension, in a state of possible battle everyday, we have to be prepared for the worst possible outcome”, he added.
Throughout the course of Prabowo’s presidential campaign, self-sufficiency in food and fuel were important elements. Prabowo’s military service has given him a different perspective on the world than Widodo, who had an entrepreneurial background as a furniture supplier and was more favorable to the development of global trade.
Jokowi has set incredibly ambitious goals, nevertheless with serious query marks about their achievability. In his statement, he suggested Indonesia could obtain food self-sufficiency in 4-5 times. Additionally, Indonesia has plans to increase its percentage of biodiesel blended with regular fuel from 35 % to 50 % or even 60 %.
However, critical questions have been raised about the viability of these objectives. Prabowo’s push for meals property projects as defense minister was somewhat unsuccessful. In Papua, more mega-projects are undergoing intense attention in order to achieve these objectives.
Green goals may suffer as a result of the emphasis on energy independence. As sources of energy self-sufficiency, Prabowo cited volcanic, diesel and fuel. While the first has low emissions, the second may have high emissions if combined with logging to produce biodiesel fuel like sugar or hand oil. Coal, of training, is anything but natural.
Zulkifli Hasan, who has been appointed the recently appointed Coordinating Minister for Food, will be in charge of all of this. As a close social supporter of Jokowi who displayed protectionist impulses as trade minister, the pick suits Prabowo’s interests. Some may be concerned about Hasan’s uneven performance in his past post, despite the fact that it appears to be central to implementation.
However, the new secretary of trade, past civil servant Budi Santoso, is said to be linked to a certain prominent businessman with huge coal and large biodiesel interests.
It’s unknown whether these protectionist instincts will eventually manifest in other sectors of the economy. Airlangga Hartarto, the coordinator of Minister for Economic Affairs, will continue in his current capacity and may serve as a potential counterweight.
Nickel and downstreaming
” We must all have commodities downstream.” In his speech, Prabowo said that the increased economic value of all those goods must help ensure that our people can enjoy a high standard of living.
In Indonesia, the heart of “downstreaming” is the nickel industry. Indonesia is the world’s top nickel producer thanks to a combination of export bans, tax breaks, and Chinese investment. Additionally, efforts are being made and plans to incorporate this into the production of batteries and electric vehicles.
However, Luhut Panjaitan, the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment ( CMA ) under Widodo, has left with him. Without direction, the policy may change, but Luhut’s centrality depended more on his personal status than his title.
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia, who is now taking the lead in the role he was given in the Widodo administration’s final months, is now the focal point. Although some have questioned how he allegedly finished his PhD dissertation on the nickel industry in just under two years while serving as minister, a title he recently obtained was recently published under his name.
Despite the PhD’s dubious origins, it could provide some indication of Bahlil’s priorities. Four flagged issues include overreliance on foreign workers, lack of opportunities for local entrepreneurs, a paucity of revenue-sharing with local governments and a lack of post-mining diversification plans.
Authoritarianism
” In the midst of such great ideals and dreams, we need an atmosphere of togetherness, unity, collaboration, not prolonged bickering”, declared Prabowo. Let us be aware that our democracy must be one that is unique to Indonesia, he continued.
While the comments may seem innocuous, they’ll put a shiver down Prabowo’s critics ‘ spines. In the past, Prabowo has criticized democracy in particular as a difficult habit to break, like smoking. He has suggested removing direct elections for president and regional leaders.
The key concept here is musyawarah, which broadly means deliberation. It is often invoked to argue Indonesia’s culture means its politics must be centered on consensus-building and not oppositional. In practice, this typically refers to a system that makes little room for criticism and dissention.
Every party that has been elected to the national parliament, aside from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle ( PDI-P), is now a part of Prabowo’s governing coalition. Despite attempts to organize regional elections using nomination thresholds, the idea was pulled out due to a pending Constitutional Court ruling.
This, plus Prabowo’s tendency to blame protests on foreign agitation, has left many worried about the space for opposition under the new government.
Cabinet appointments here provide little reassurance. Attorney General ST Burhanuddin and Minister of Home Affairs Tito Karniavan, who served during Widodo’s second term when the former president increasingly used legal institutions for political purposes, will continue in their positions.
In addition, Prabowo is close to new Attorney General Supratman Andi Agtas and new State Intelligence Agency head Muhamad Herindra. New Minister of Communication and Digital Meutya Hafid, a former journalist, is a potential bright spot.
Looking ahead to Prabowo’s new era, many anticipate challenges to media freedoms, tough crackdowns on any protests, and possible changes to election rules. Constitutional changes to repeal or modify liberalizing amendments introduced post-1998, measures that effectively gave birth to Indonesia’s modern democracy, are also not inconceivable considering Prabowo’s known views.