Taiwan’s bold development of its submarine ship marks a high-stakes bargain to store China’s growing military danger despite considerable economic, administrative and political challenges.
Taiwan has set aside a sizable budget to build seven additional submarines by 2038, according to the South China Morning Post (SCMP ) earlier this month to deter China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) from potentially launching an attack.
SCMP mentions that the determination, approved by the government and awaiting congressional evaluation, has sparked controversy among analysts over its timing and macroeconomic prudence, given that the prototype submarine, Hai Kun, is still undergoing testing.
The report says that the project’s hefty price tag of NTD 284 billion ( US$ 8.88 billion ) contrasts with the prototype’s cost of NTD 26 billion ($ 806 million ), raising questions about the rush to expand the fleet without finalized sea trial results.
According to the SCMP record, critics advocate for fiscal control and warn against excessive budget allocation. It also mentions that opponents of the PLA’s threats emphasize the corporate necessity of advanced submarines.
Experts point out Taiwan’s optimistic underwater program’s crucial role in disrupting PLA operations and strengthening Taiwan’s symmetric defense strategy while Taiwan’s ambitious underwater program stirs macroeconomic prudence debates.
In a report from January 2023 for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank, Mark Cancian and other authors mention submarines as having the potential to attack Chinese amphibious ships and supply convoys, disrupting PLA logistics, and reducing the effectiveness of any invasion force.
Cancian and some claim that submarines operating in the shallow and confined waters of the Taiwan Strait may use their stealth skills to shield themselves from the anti-submarine weapons of China.
They claim that submarines are a crucial asymmetrical tool in Taiwan’s defense strategy because they can cause considerable damage to the envading fleet.
Cancian and people point out that ships alone would not be sufficient to stop a full-scale war, but they would still have a significant impact on delaying and putting the PLA’s attempts at risk.
That, in turn, may provide Taiwan and its supporters, including the US, more time to respond and possibly prevent Chinese troops from establishing a lasting foothold.
In accordance with Cancian and some ‘ analysis, David Axe claims in a September 2023 Forbes content that the Hai Kun and its seven girl submarines, along with bombers, are essential for preventing an invasion and have the ability to drop several Chinese ships.
In addition to providing military and administrative options for Taiwan, Collin Koh, in a February 2024 Newsweek content, points out the emotional and social significance of Taiwan’s submarines.
Koh claims Hai Kun’s public appearance was intended to show that the Taiwanese people were accountable and that the project was on schedule. He adds that the unveiling projects deterrence, leaving China guessing about the submarine’s capabilities.
Taiwan’s audacious submarine program is a crucial asymmetric defense project, but its construction, personnel training, and strategic integration challenges have made it difficult to bring this vision into reality.
John Dotson explains that building eight submarines is a challenging task in a June 2023 article for the Global Taiwan Institute ( GTI). Dotson notes that it’s difficult to predict how long it will take Taiwan’s current naval shipbuilding facilities to complete the project, especially given the local production capacity and budgetary constraints preventing building surface ships locally.
He also makes comments about the difficulties of setting up protocols to manage overlapping patrol areas with allies and regional countries during peacetime and wartime as well as the training and certification of crews for a significantly larger Taiwanese submarine fleet.
Dotson points out that integrating these assets into Taiwan’s overall defense strategy poses the biggest operational challenge for submarines.
He says that Taiwan could consider operational models such as Nazi Germany’s “wolfpacks”, the US Navy’s controversial 1980s” Maritime Strategy”, and a passive submarine “fleet in being” to complicate PLA planners ‘ blockade or invasion plans.
Taiwan must balance using a diverse naval force and conventional military strategies with a balanced effort to build submarines.
Asia Times reported in January 2024 that Taiwan’s simultaneous naval construction projects may indicate a challenge in designing its naval force.
This difficulty arises from achieving a balance between establishing a conventional force to defend against a potential invasion and building an asymmetric force to counter China’s unconventional tactics in disputed areas.
To combat China’s “gray zone” tactics, Taiwan emphasizes building a highly visible conventional naval force. However, this approach does not effectively address China’s significant military advantage.
Taiwan may become vulnerable as a result of its decision to diversify its force structure and procurement in order to combat conventional and asymmetric warfare.
Taiwan’s new light frigates and corvettes could be more effective in dealing with China’s frequent surface and underwater intrusions into Taiwan’s territories. However, if Taiwan fully embraces an asymmetric warfare strategy, submarines could soon become its most important naval vessels.
As Taiwan struggles to maintain a balanced naval force design, China’s efforts to modernize and expand its submarine fleet have become even more difficult due to its political influence operations.
The success of Taiwan’s Indigenous Defense Submarine ( IDS ) program is heavily dependent on continued political and financial support, according to a Strategic Comments article from January 2021, especially since it is closely linked to former president Tsai Ing-wen and her Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ).
In line with that, Alan Yu and other writers mention in a February 2024 article for the Center for American Progress ( CAP ) that despite China’s extensive efforts to influence the results of Taiwan’s January 2024 presidential elections, Taiwanese voters elected DPP candidate Lai Ching-te as president.
Yu and others point out that China’s coordinated efforts to influence the election included a sophisticated disinformation campaign using AI to influence public opinion and stifle Taiwan’s political support for its military modernization, particularly its submarine program.
They point out that despite these tactics, Taiwan’s robust countermeasures, including legislative actions and public awareness initiatives, have at least partly blunted China’s influence operations.