Kerry’s COP28 fusion address will change the world

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On November 20, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry announced that he would present a new global strategy for fusion energy at the now-ongoing COP28 conference in Dubai.    

In a high-profile visit to the headquarters of Commonwealth Fusion, one of the world’s leading private fusion companies, Kerry declared:

“Fusion energy is no longer just a science experiment. Benefitting from decades of investment from the [US] Department of Energy’s world-leading Fusion Energy Sciences programs, it is now also an emerging climate solution. I will have much more to say on the United States’ vision for international partnerships for an inclusive fusion energy future at COP28, during an event on December 5.”

Kerry also spoke of “The first ever modern strategy — fusion strategy — for the United States.”

Whatever the details of Kerry’s address, we have good reason to expect that it will be substantive and not simply a political gesture. It could literally change the world.

Kerry will be the first top-level US government figure to thrust fusion into the center of the global stage in this way. As former secretary of state under the Obama administration, Kerry is quite aware that his fusion initiative is de facto a foreign policy move. To us, it constitutes one of the few unambiguously positive such moves in a long time.   

In narrow terms, Kerry’s forthcoming speech will signal the aim of the US to restore its leadership position in international fusion research – a position which has eroded progressively since the late 1980s.

At the same time, it will reflect the fact that realizing fusion as an economically viable energy source will require enormous resources, more effective cooperation between states and a new form of public-private partnership involving diverse technological approaches.

We expect Kerry’s proposal will extend the new “philosophy” of fusion research and development which has emerged in the US as well as the UK in the last decade, to the entire global fusion effort.

The implications go even beyond that. Whether he intends it directly or not, Kerry’s forthcoming announcement promises to redefine the entire issue of reducing human CO2 emissions, which is the central focus of COP28. In a sense, it amounts to turning the global warming campaign upside down.

In our view, fusion is far more than an unlimited energy source; it embodies the upward vector of human civilization, which has increasingly been lost over the last 50 years.

The specter of a global warming “doomsday” has fed dangerously into the environmentalist ideology, which sees human beings first and foremost as destroyers of the planet. Although many environmental problems have to be solved, human civilization cannot survive without upper and outward development. That is what fusion is all about.  

Without nuclear energy – fission today, fusion tomorrow – the global anti-CO2 campaign translates into brutal economic austerity, especially for developing nations.

In the meantime, amid deep economic crises in many of these nations, we witness the farcical spectacle of the COP28 conference, with 80 000 representatives traveling from all over the world on a thousand CO2-spouting planes to one of the world’s largest oil producers in order discuss how to reduce CO2 emissions!

If Kerry succeeds in making the realization of fusion power a top global priority as an answer to the “climate crisis”, that alone could make this latest United Nations extravaganza worthwhile.    

Background of Kerry’s initiative

What is the background of Kerry’s forthcoming move? Where is this coming from? I and my co-author have a pretty good idea about that.

I have followed developments in fusion since 1977, promoted fusion research through countless articles, presentations and at one point even played a role in off-the-record “fusion diplomacy” between the US and the USSR.

My co-author is an active participant in the growing private fusion “ecosystem” in the US and has worked with Scott Hsu, now senior advisor to the US Under Secretary of Energy for Science and Innovation and Lead Fusion Coordinator for the Department of Energy.  

Hsu is a central figure in the ongoing transformation of US fusion strategy and no doubt one of the main sources of the concepts Kerry will present in his forthcoming speech.

Co-author Florian Metzler with Scott Hsu. Photo: Florian Metzler

As readers of my Asia Times articles know, efforts to realize fusion as an energy source are moving forward at an accelerating pace, propelled by technological breakthroughs, powerful national commitments of nations such as the UK, Japan and China and not least of all by the skyrocketing growth of private investment into fusion companies.

Although the US has been the leading breeding ground for private fusion companies, there has been no decisive national commitment to fusion.

The US used to be the main fusion “superpower”, with the largest and most comprehensive fusion effort in the world. Not surprisingly, US fusion capability was centered on national labs with close military connections.

But starting in the 1980s the US fusion sector suffered from massive budget cuts, from which it has still not fully recovered. I experienced this firsthand. Participation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project served as a pretext for failure to pursue a serious national fusion effort.  

Kerry has long been a strong supporter of fusion, going back at least to his term as senator of Massachusetts. In 2012-2013, for example, then-Senator Kerry mounted a major effort to prevent the shutdown of the Alcator-C-Mod reactor at MIT – one of the most promising innovative fusion projects in the US.

I remember meeting the mastermind of the Alcator program, the brilliant Italian physicist Bruno Coppi. Although Kerry’s effort succeeded in prolonging the life of the Alcator-C-Mod, the reactor was prematurely shut down in 2016.

Just two years later, however, the results and know-how of the Alcator provided the basis for the start-up company Commonwealth Fusion Systems, now one of the largest and most successful private fusion companies aiming to commercialize fusion.

It is no accident that Kerry chose his November 30 visit to Commonwealth Systems as the occasion to announce his forthcoming fusion initiative at COP28.

The process of “spinning off” a 100% government-funded research program into a private fusion company – with continued government support – has no doubt played an important role in forming Kerry’s vision for the future of fusion.

From fusion monopolies to ecosystems

There is more to this tale, however. The last two decades have witnessed a momentous transformation in the philosophy and organization of fusion-related research and development in the United States.

In former times, fusion research was practically a monopoly of giant US national laboratories, specifically the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Sandia National Laboratory and the Naval Research Laboratory. Not by accident, all of these have a strong military background.

The US national labs’ contribution to the worldwide fusion effort cannot be overestimated. Without that and the work of a few analogous institutions in other countries, fusion would be nowhere today.

At the same time, problems inherent to such giant entities such as the tendency to fixate on a few large projects at the expense of smaller ones and conflicts of interests in the struggle for government funding have had a crippling effect. That applies especially to the post-1986 period when fusion research in the US was chronically underfunded.

Meanwhile, throughout the 2010s, the face of fusion research in the US has been radically transformed from insular research activities pursued by decades-old entrenched lab groups toward the cultivation of a topically and organizationally diverse research “ecosystem.”

The change reflects a new philosophy of fusion research, one that acknowledges that, in the absence of a single frontrunner among reactor concepts, a diversity of physical and technological approaches as well as a diversity of organizational forms is prudent.

National labs, universities and startups should not be seen as living in their own separate spheres, but can and should be brought together in complementary ways.

The key driver of this transformation has been the innovation agency of the US Department of Energy,  ARPA-E, created in 2009. While ARPA-E’s budget for fusion is extremely limited, the agency’s influence goes far beyond just injecting funds into projects. 

In fact, ARPA-E has played a critical role in coordinating across different fusion actors, providing a stage to present ideas and have them subjected to scrutiny and peer validation.

My co-author has participated in such discussions and witnessed how the role of ARPA-E has had a signaling effect and often led to investor commitments that far exceeded ARPA-E’s public funding amounts.

The creation and rise of ARPA-E coincided with another key development: the rise of the fusion startup and the growth of a private fusion industry –  a process fueled by massive investor interest.

During the 2010s, the saturation of internet markets along with growing public concerns about climate change turned investor attention to new markets and fusion in many ways fit the bill. 

A flagship among fusion startups is Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), the Massachusetts-based startup that was spun out of MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center in 2017.

CFS’s December 2021 announcement that it had raised US$1.8 billion in capital from private investors served as a signal for a wave of investment into new-founded fusion companies.

Commonwealth Fusion’s SPARK reactor, now under construction Image: Creative Commons

The Fusion Industry Association (FIA) was founded in 2018 as a lobby for the burgeoning private fusion sector. (Readers can learn more from the interview I conducted in December 2021 with the FIA’s CEO Andrew Holland.)

The latest 2023 survey of the Fusion Industry Association reported that private fusion companies had raised a total of $5.9 billion in private funds.

Member companies of the Fusion Industry Association. Image:  FIA

The contrast between fusion startups and traditional fusion players has created a clearly defined task for ARPA-E. Some degree of “sensemaking” was required to reconcile the two separate universes of fusion approaches and claims. 

The emergence of the private fusion industry in parallel to the old incumbents created paradoxical situations. While there were groups that claimed net energy production could not be achieved until at least the 2040s, several private companies claimed to have already achieved it.

Companies like Helion, for instance, signed a power purchase agreement this year with Microsoft, claiming it would deliver fusion energy as early as 2025. 

All of this screamed for some sort of independent referee who maintains an overview of the full range of activities in the fusion space and who keeps actors honest through rigorous and independent assessment of their claims. Such a process can then also help inform the distribution of resources with the goal of yielding the greatest societal returns. 

That kind of referee emerged with the person of Dr Scott Hsu, who is today a high-level government employee with the Department of Energy but who is also a highly decorated physicist with a research history at Los Alamos National Laboratories. 

Hsu has transitioned out of his research job to become a program director at ARPA-E, which served as a stepping stone to his current role in the DOE executive suite.

Hsu is known and respected across the US fusion community. He’s widely seen as an embodiment of ARPA-E’s core principles: deep technical as well as managerial and strategic acumen; understanding of policy and economic issues; curiosity and openness towards new approaches alongside rigor in their assessment and evaluation.

The significance of Hsu’s transition from affiliate of a research lab to a government position cannot be overemphasized. While many countries occupy their expert commissions with acting scientists laden with conflict of interests, the US provides a track for high-level government employees who can put deep technical expertise to bear in the interest of the general public.

In Hsu’s role today as lead fusion coordinator he acts as a central node connecting political decision-makers to those who devise and conduct fusion research at the lab level. 

Educating and pulling along political decision-makers has become more and more critical. This relates to the size of the annual funding pool for fusion research as well as regulatory concerns. 

A key worry was that a future fusion industry may face a similar fate as the fission industry, which has been burdened by inflated regulatory requirements.

 To the great relief of many in the industry, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission decided in April this year to regulate future fusion reactors not like fission reactors but like particle accelerator facilities, greatly simplifying regulatory requirements, 

To summarize, much momentum has been building in the US fusion space in recent years Many drivers have come together fortuitously – from investor interest to the creation of ARPA-E and the commitment to create a coordinated ecosystem. The resulting dynamics have turned basic research efforts into a mission-driven ecosystem. 

The extension of this process on the international scale that we are seeing now represents a logical next step. Other countries have taken notice and are likewise aiming to support and align their fusion-related actors.

While the intention is clear, often such countries are overwhelmed on how to engage with difficult technical and strategic questions. A global strategy may provide guidance to them to coordinate and exchange information on an international level and to create an even vaster and more diverse ecosystem that identifies and exploits synergies and complementarities among different actors. 

Kerry’s fusion initiative: a selective chronology

Whoever wants to fully appreciate the force behind Kerry’s fusion initiative should take a glance at some of the highlights of the process that went into it. The following chronology contains only some highlights but should be enough to get a sense of how the process builds up more and more.

2005: In a report for Congress, entitled “Rising Above the Gathering Storm: Energizing and Employing America for a Brighter Economic Future” the US National Academies called for decisive action, warning policymakers that US advantages in science and technology ­­– which made the country a world leader for decades – had already begun to erode. The report recommended that Congress establish the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) within the US Department of Energy (DOE) modeled after the successful Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the agency credited with key innovations such as GPS, the stealth fighter and computer networking. 

2007: Congress passes “The America COMPETES Act” which officially authorized ARPA-E’s creation. In 2009, ARPA-E received its first appropriation of $400 million, which funded ARPA-E’s first projects.

2010s: the US switched to an ecosystem approach. Commercial nuclear fusion start-ups that first appeared in the 2000s – Commonwealth Fusion, TAE Technologies, General Fusion, Tokamak Energy and others attracted more and more private investment and development of major capabilities in fusion technology.

March 19, 2012:  US Senator John Kerry visits MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) to tour the Alcator C-Mod tokamak and see first-hand how the experiment operated. The C-Mod fusion project was at risk of being terminated due to proposed cuts in the domestic fusion program in the fiscal year 2013 presidential budget. Kerry was already working to restore the project’s funding, writing a letter to the Senate Appropriations Committee strongly arguing against cuts to domestic fusion research.

2014: The American Security Project, a bipartisan think tank founded by John Kerry and Chuck Hagel in 2006, publishes a White Paper entitled “Fusion Power – a 10-year Plan to Energy Security”, declaring: “It is a national security imperative that America makes a dedicated commitment to fusion energy”, and calling for an investment of $30 billion over 10 years, “with the goal of producing demonstration levels of electric power within a decade.”

2018: Commonwealth Fusion Systems is founded as a spin-off from the MIT Plasma Science and Fusion Center with initial funding of $50 million in 2018 from the Italian multinational Eni. Not surprisingly, the CEO of Eni joined Kerry on his latest visit to CFS.

2018: Founding of the Fusion Industry Association (FIA) as a Washington-based lobby for private fusion companies.

2020: Creation of the Milestone-Based Development Program for Fusion of the US Department of Energy via the 2020 Energy Bill and the CHIPS and Science Act. 

2021: US Representative Don Beyer founds the bipartisan Congressional Fusion Caucus, which has since grown to 50 members.

March 30, 2021:  The first annual policy conference of the Fusion Industry Association in Washington, DC is held.

October 1, 2021: Publication of the UK government’s official Fusion strategy, a comprehensive program with emphasis on building up a domestic fusion industry capable of building fusion power plants.

March 17, 2022: White House summit meeting devoted to “Developing a Bold Decadal Vision for Commercial Fusion Energy.” The US Department of Energy launches an agency-wide initiative to accelerate the viability of commercial fusion energy in coordination with the private sector. Hsu, head of the fusion program at ARPA-E, is named new DOE Lead Fusion Energy Coordinator, joining the Office of the Under Secretary for Science and Innovation.

September 22, 2022: the US Department of Energy (DOE) launches the Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program to support the development and commercialization of a fusion pilot plant

March 9, 2023: President Joe Biden’s proposed Budget for the Fiscal Year 2024 contains a historic $1 billion request for increased government funding for fusion.

April 14, 2023: The Nuclear Regulatory Commission voted to regulate fusion under a different framework than fission, making it possible for fusion to avoid the licensing morass that has long plagued conventional nuclear reactors. 

April 14, 2023: Japan’s Cabinet announces a full-scale national Fusion Energy Innovation Strategy.

August 18, 2023: Bipartisan consensus in the US Congress on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s decision to regulate fusion under the byproduct materials framework and amend the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 to include fusion.

November 8, 2023: US-UK Joint Statement between the UK Department for Energy Security and Net and the US Department of Energy, announces a strategic partnership to accelerate fusion energy demonstration and commercialization.

(I was not surprised to see this agreement. During my visit to UK fusion facilities in August 2023, I was struck by the particularly close connections between the national fusion laboratories of the two nations, which no doubt reflects the long-standing special relationship between the two countries in defense-related areas.)

November 20, 2023: US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate Kerry visited Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) headquarters in Devens, Massachusetts, near Boston, along with CFS CEO Bob Mumgaard and Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi.

John Kerry, left, talks with Commonwealth Fusion Systems CEO Bob Mumgaard and Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi. Photo: CFS

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Xi’s big push to reverse China’s massive capital flight

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Xi Jinping’s first public visit to Shanghai in three years signals a new effort to boost China’s private sector. Yet even more important, Xi’s team in Beijing chose this week’s occasion to unveil a series of reforms that are a bigger deal than might meet the eye.

The stocks of Shanghai-centered tech companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd. and Will Semiconductor Co. rallied on the news Monday.

The visit, coupled with new policies to level playing fields and increase private companies’ access to capital, is seen by some as Xi following through on vows made in California earlier this month to make life easier for China’s beleaguered entrepreneurs.

To date, Xi’s attempts to restore investor confidence amid struggles to move past Covid-19 fallout have fallen short. More than US$1 trillion of foreign capital fled mainland share markets since Xi clamped down on Big Tech in late 2020. More recent fears about deflation haven’t helped.

In recent weeks, Xi restarted China’s stimulus machine amid calls for greater government action amid a property crisis and stalling economic recovery. In particular, the People’s Bank of China, China’s central bank, has channeled more liquidity to troubled property developers.

Analyst Zerlina Zeng at CreditSights speaks for many when she says “we expect China’s softening external stance and warming relationship with the US and other developed markets to set a more conducive geopolitical backdrop for China credit.”

But the reforms being outlined this week could be a game-changer. The PBOC and seven other government bodies have unveiled 25 steps to increase the role of the private sector.

They will apply to a broad range of private sector industries, including the ailing property market. Gavekal Research analyst Xiaoxi Zhang isn’t exaggerating when she warns that “debt strains from property developers and local government financing vehicles are spreading across China’s economy.”

There are concerns, too, that Beijing’s criminal probe into the wealth management unit of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, one of China’s largest “shadow banks,” could soon spook Asian markets the same way China Evergrande Group’s default did in 2021.

The Zhongzhi Group shadow bank is on the verge of collapse. Image: Twitter

Broader initiatives include setting clear and transparent targets for widening access to financial services for private enterprises.

With an emphasis on regular performance assessments and financial support, the plan is to increase the proportion of loans to private enterprises while improving organizational structures to increase efficiency.

Areas of particular focus include: supporting technological innovation amongst small and medium-sized enterprises, entrepreneurs in the green and low-carbon space and innovators keen to disrupt China from the ground up.

This will include a greater tolerance for risk-taking and the non-performing loans that startups can rack up. Beijing seeks to recalibrate lending and borrowing practices to increase private sector development while limiting risks.

This also includes increased support for first-time loans and unsecured loans. Financial institutions will be encouraged to develop a wider range of credit-financing products suitable for private enterprises.

Most important of all, Xi’s reform team is eying a great leap forward for China’s corporate bond market. This has long been a stumbling block for smaller, less established corporate credits. In particular, China plans to expand the range of bond financing options — and the scale — to private enterprises.

Under a series of “innovation bills” under the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors and China Securities Regulatory Commission, new structures will be welcomed for stock-bond hybrid products, green bonds, carbon neutrality bonds, transition bonds, infrastructure bonds and other financing tools.

Support programs will seek to incentivize private enterprises to issue asset-backed securities to restructure and revitalize existing assets. Registration mechanisms will be streamlined.

And Beijing will prod state-owned entities like China Bond Insurance Co and China Securities Finance Corporation, and even non-government institutions, to adhere to global standards and raise their credit market games.

That means building world-class systems for credit guarantees, credit risk mitigation tools, credit analysis and ratings and expanding China’s universe of bond financing support tools for private enterprises.

At long last, the Communist Party finally seems serious about facilitating increased bond investment in private enterprises. In years past, Beijing worried about a “crowding out” effect if private issuers lured capital from the national and local governments.

China’s bond markets haven’t kept pace with the economy’s needs. Image: Twitter

Now, Beijing will encourage banks, insurance companies, pension funds, public funds, and other institutional investors to allocate capital to private enterprises. Regulators will be charged with internationalizing trading mechanisms, market pricing, compliance and disclosure procedures.

Xi’s team also is stepping up efforts to develop a high-yield bond market. Few steps might be more impactful for private sector development – especially tech-oriented SMEs – than creating a dedicated high-yield debt platform empowered by world-class trading systems. It would supersize capital-raising options and pull in new generations of overseas investors.

In June, local media reported that the PBOC and CSRC sought advice from market participants on setting up a high-yield marketplace. As of then, only four high-yield debt issues with coupons exceeding 8% had priced in 2023.

Authorities sought input from fixed-income players, investment bankers, legal experts, rating companies and accountants. This would channel greater financing to tech enterprises, startups and riskier borrowers.

The key, though, is implementation. The disconnect between Xi’s rhetoric since 2012 and execution helps explain why investors tend to be skeptical of China’s past efforts to reboot the reform process.

“Time will tell whether President Xi’s words will first stem the current large foreign direct investment outflows and eventually lead to a resumption of the net FDI inflows that China has enjoyed for more than four decades,” says Nicholas Lardy, senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “A safe assumption is that it will take more than words to accomplish this objective.”

It helps that the news dropped days after Xi’s government drafted a list of property developers eligible for large-scale support, including the troubled Country Garden Holdings. The property crisis remains a major turnoff for overseas investors.

New data, Lardy notes, “imply that foreign firms operating in China are not only declining to reinvest their earnings but – for the first time ever – they are large net sellers of their existing investments to Chinese companies and repatriating the funds.”

The outflows in question exceeded $100 billion in the first three quarters of 2023 and, as Lardy predicts, “are likely to grow further based on trends to date.”

Among the factors Lardy cites as repelling overseas investors and chieftains: tense Sino-US tensions; recent news of Beijing cracking down on foreign consultancy and due-diligence firms vital to evaluating investments; Beijing’s increasingly stringent regulatory environment; new national security laws; and restrictions on cross-border data flows.

Michael Hart, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, notes that “foreign business executives here are eager to continue in China. But boards back in the US are wary.”

Hence the importance of Xi and Li ensuring that these new private enterprise policies are implemented in credible and transparent ways. The good news is that Li, party secretary for Shanghai City from 2017 to 2022, has close ties with, and deep understanding of, China’s tech sector.

Li Qiang understands the tech sector. Image: Screengrab / NDTV

Veteran banker Zhu Hexin seems a solid choice as new party chief of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). He will assume management of China’s foreign exchange stockpile from PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng. Zhu also was appointed as a member of the central bank’s party committee.

Prior to SAFE, Zhu helmed state-run financial conglomerate CITIC Group, meaning he comes to the job with deep market knowledge and industry contacts. Also, Vice Premier He Lifeng has been tapped to oversee economic and financial policy and trade talks with the US and Europe as head of the Central Financial Commission.

It now falls to Li, Zhu and He to ensure that President Xi’s recent pledges to top Western chieftains in San Francisco don’t fall by the wayside.

CEOs on hand to hear Xi speak included Apple’s Tim Cook, Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio, Citadel Securities’ Peng Zhao, ExxonMobil’s Darren Woods, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla and Tesla’s Elon Musk.

There, Xi claimed that “China doesn’t seek spheres of influence, and will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone.” Xi also seemed to preview the next phase of reform, stating that “we should remain committed to open regionalism, and steadfastly advance the building of a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific. We should make our economies more interconnected and build an open Asia-Pacific economy featuring win-win cooperation.”

Xi added that “we should promote transitions to digital, smart and green development. We should boost innovation and market application of scientific and technological advances and push forward the full integration of digital and physical economies. We should jointly improve global governance of science and technology, and build an open, fair, just and non-discriminatory environment for the development of science and technology.”

Earlier this month, Xi presided over a private sector symposium in Beijing to highlight its central role in a more innovative and productive Chinese future. There, Xi stressed that private enterprises contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product, 50% of tax revenue, 80% of urban employment, 90% of new jobs and 70% of tech innovation.

“Over the past 40 years, the private sector of the economy has become an indispensable force behind China’s development,” Xi acknowledged.

Yet private enterprise has had a rough few years, from Covid-19 to Xi’s tech crackdown. A major concern now is that China falls into a Japan-like lost decade, so-called “Japanification.”

Economist Takatoshi Ito, a former Japanese deputy vice minister of finance, notes that the Chinese property sector’s “travails echo Japan’s experience” with bad loans and deflation.

But, Ito adds, “perhaps the greatest threat to China’s economic growth and development is Xi himself. Xi has spent the last few years tightening government control over all aspects of life in the country, including the economy. The regulatory crackdown on large tech companies like Alibaba, which began in late 2020, is a case in point.”

Alibaba took the brunt of Xi’s tech clampdown. Image: Agencies

Though regulators “have since backed off somewhat, and China’s government is actively supporting high-tech industries like electric vehicles, Xi’s obsession with control continues to pose a serious threat to China’s prospects. Not only does it hamper innovation by domestic firms; it also discourages foreign investment.”

The good news is that the private sector reforms detailed in recent days suggest Xi is serious about bold economic disruption and recalibrating growth engines away from state-owned enterprises and public investment toward private sector innovation.

As long as implementation is swift and credible, 2024 could be a markedly better year for China than many investors now pulling their investments from Asia’s largest economy expect.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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Quantum advantage coming into view

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Quantum advantage is the milestone the field of quantum computing is fervently working toward, where a quantum computer can solve problems that are beyond the reach of the most powerful non-quantum, or classical, computers.

Quantum refers to the scale of atoms and molecules where the laws of physics as we experience them break down and a different, counterintuitive set of laws apply. Quantum computers take advantage of these strange behaviors to solve problems.

There are some types of problems that are impractical for classical computers to solve, such as cracking state-of-the-art encryption algorithms. Research in recent decades has shown that quantum computers have the potential to solve some of these problems.

If a quantum computer can be built that actually does solve one of these problems, it will have demonstrated quantum advantage.

This frontier of scientific and technological innovation not only promises groundbreaking advances in computation but also represents a broader surge in quantum technology, including significant advancements in quantum cryptography and quantum sensing.

The source of quantum computing’s power

Central to quantum computing is the quantum bit, or qubit. Unlike classical bits, which can only be in states of 0 or 1, a qubit can be in any state that is some combination of 0 and 1. This state of neither just 1 or just 0 is known as a quantum superposition. With every additional qubit, the number of states that can be represented by the qubits doubles.

IBM’s quantum computer got President Joe Biden’s attention. Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

This property is often mistaken for the source of the power of quantum computing. Instead, it comes down to an intricate interplay of superposition, interference and entanglement.

Interference involves manipulating qubits so that their states combine constructively during computations to amplify correct solutions and destructively to suppress the wrong answers. Constructive interference is what happens when the peaks of two waves – like sound waves or ocean waves – combine to create a higher peak.

Destructive interference is what happens when a wave peak and a wave trough combine and cancel each other out. Quantum algorithms, which are few and difficult to devise, set up a sequence of interference patterns that yield the correct answer to a problem.

Entanglement establishes a uniquely quantum correlation between qubits: The state of one cannot be described independently of the others, no matter how far apart the qubits are. This is what Albert Einstein famously dismissed as “spooky action at a distance.”

Entanglement’s collective behavior, orchestrated through a quantum computer, enables computational speed-ups that are beyond the reach of classical computers.

YouTube video

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The ones and zeros – and everything in between – of quantum computing.

Applications of quantum computing

Quantum computing has a range of potential uses where it can outperform classical computers. In cryptography, quantum computers pose both an opportunity and a challenge. Most famously, they have the potential to decipher current encryption algorithms, such as the widely used RSA scheme.

One consequence of this is that today’s encryption protocols need to be re-engineered to be resistant to future quantum attacks. This recognition has led to the burgeoning field of post-quantum cryptography.

After a long process, the National Institute of Standards and Technology recently selected four quantum-resistant algorithms and has begun the process of readying them so that organizations around the world can use them in their encryption technology.

In addition, quantum computing can dramatically speed up quantum simulation: the ability to predict the outcome of experiments operating in the quantum realm. Famed physicist Richard Feynman envisioned this possibility more than 40 years ago.

Quantum simulation offers the potential for considerable advancements in chemistry and materials science, aiding in areas such as the intricate modeling of molecular structures for drug discovery and enabling the discovery or creation of materials with novel properties.

Another use of quantum information technology is quantum sensing: detecting and measuring physical properties like electromagnetic energy, gravity, pressure and temperature with greater sensitivity and precision than non-quantum instruments. Quantum sensing has myriad applications in fields such as environmental monitoring, geological exploration, medical imaging and surveillance.

Initiatives such as the development of a quantum internet that interconnects quantum computers are crucial steps toward bridging the quantum and classical computing worlds. This network could be secured using quantum cryptographic protocols such as quantum key distribution, which enables ultra-secure communication channels that are protected against computational attacks – including those using quantum computers.

Despite a growing application suite for quantum computing, developing new algorithms that make full use of the quantum advantage – in particular in machine learning – remains a critical area of ongoing research.

a metal apparatus with green laser light in the background
A prototype quantum sensor developed by MIT researchers can detect any frequency of electromagnetic waves. Photo: Guoqing Wang, CC BY-NC-ND

Staying coherent and overcoming errors

The quantum computing field faces significant hurdles in hardware and software development. Quantum computers are highly sensitive to any unintentional interactions with their environments. This leads to the phenomenon of decoherence, where qubits rapidly degrade to the 0 or 1 states of classical bits.

Building large-scale quantum computing systems capable of delivering on the promise of quantum speed-ups requires overcoming decoherence. The key is developing effective methods of suppressing and correcting quantum errors, an area my own research is focused on.

In navigating these challenges, numerous quantum hardware and software startups have emerged alongside well-established technology industry players like Google and IBM. This industry interest, combined with significant investment from governments worldwide, underscores a collective recognition of quantum technology’s transformative potential.

These initiatives foster a rich ecosystem where academia and industry collaborate, accelerating progress in the field.

Quantum computing may one day be as disruptive as the arrival of generative AI. Currently, the development of quantum computing technology is at a crucial juncture. On the one hand, the field has already shown early signs of having achieved a narrowly specialized quantum advantage.

Researchers at Google and later a team of researchers in China demonstrated quantum advantage for generating a list of random numbers with certain properties. My research team demonstrated a quantum speed-up for a random number guessing game.

On the other hand, there is a tangible risk of entering a “quantum winter,” a period of reduced investment if practical results fail to materialize in the near term.

While the technology industry is working to deliver quantum advantage in products and services in the near term, academic research remains focused on investigating the fundamental principles underpinning this new science and technology.

This ongoing basic research, fueled by enthusiastic cadres of new and bright students of the type I encounter almost every day, ensures that the field will continue to progress.

Daniel Lidar, Professor of Electrical Engineering, Chemistry, and Physics & Astronomy, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Kerry, Zeng, Bou and Stern win sustainability honors

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STOCKHOLM – The Nobel Sustainability Trust, with the support of the Instittue of Advanced Study of the Technical University of Munich, has presented medals recognizing outstanding contributions in sustainabity to John Kerry, the US Special presidential envoy for climate, and Robin Yuqun Zeng, Chairman of CATL, the world-leading battery company.

NST and TUM IAS also presented an award for outstanding research and development in the field of energy to Elena Bou of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology and an award in leadership and implementation to Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics and Political Science. This is the first year these two awards have been presented.

The recipients of the sustainability awards were selected by an independent committee managed by the Technical University of Munich. This committee includes professors appointed by various institutes and universities from around the world. The sustainability awards will be presented annually to individuals or institutions that have facilitated significant developments in or made outstanding contributions to the implementation of sustainable solutions for communities.

In 2022, TUM became NST’s academic partner. The TUM Institute for Advanced Study is responsible for selecting the academic award winners. The awards were handed over at the Nobel Sustainability Trust summit at the Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities in Munich on November 9.

Nobel Sustainability Trust Chairman Peter Nobel remarks:

It is with great joy and pride that we jointly announce, here in Munich, the awardees for the first sustainability awards in energy and leadership and the medals, presented for the second time this year, for outstanding contribution in sustainability. The future of humanity and its survival largely hinge on our abilities to use the Earth’s resources and leverage technological innovations in a sustainable manner. We believe the sustainability awards and medals will play a pivotal role and become a powerful symbol within the sustainable field. Our objective is to inspire and mobilize individuals and organizations worldwide to develop sustainable technologies in key resource areas such as energy, water, and agriculture. Such efforts require substantial intellectual engagement and financial support.

President of the Technical University of Munich Thomas Hofmann says:

TUM’s core strategy is to promote the concept of sustainability and its implementation via promising and marketable technologies. I am pleased that we at TUM are helping to push sustainability even further with the sustainability awards and to demonstrate that science and technology are the keys to sustainability.

John Kerry, US special presidential envoy for climate

John Kerry, a US politician, served in the Senate (1985–2013) and later was secretary of state (2013–2017) in the administration of President Barack Obama. Kerry is one of the world’s most effective climate champions. As secretary of state in 2015, he helped negotiate the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2019 Kerry was a key figure in the creation of World War Zero, an organization dedicated to fighting climate change. In 2020 he was named special presidential envoy for climate in the administration of President Biden. Kerry has been crisscrossing the globe rallying foreign allies and adversaries to make bolder commitments to fight climate change, urging governments and industries to bring concrete plans to boost renewable energy and cut greenhouse emissions by 2030.

Robin Zeng, Chairman of CATL

Robin Zeng established CATL in 1999 and built it the world’s leading company in the field of lithium-ion batteries for consumer electronics. In a new endeavor in 2011 he established CATL, a world leading power battery provider and a global leader of new energy innovative technologies. The company has made continuous breakthroughs in key technologies of EV and energy storage batteries, providing premier solutions and services for new energy applications worldwide. CATL’s global market share of power battery ranks first in the world for six consecutive years. It also ranks first in the global market share of energy storage battery production.

Elena Bou, medalist for outstanding research and development in energy

Elena Bou co-founded EIT InnoEnergy in 2010 and, since 2011, has served as innovation director and member of its executive board. In her position, she leads the development of major InnoEnergy efforts in creating and accelerating startups and scaleups in the energy field, including the investment process in such ventures. EIT InnoEnergy is a knowledge and innovation community supported by the European Institute of Technology, which has supported since its foundation around 450 companies in the sustainable energy field, focusing on energy storage, sustainable buildings and cities, renewable energies, smart electric grid, energy efficiency, energy for circular economy and energy for transport and mobility.

As an associate professor in the Department of Operations, Innovation, and Data Sciences at the Spanish business school Escuela Superior de Administración y Dirección de Empresas (ESADE), Elena Bou is active in researching and teaching in the field of knowledge and innovation management. She holds a PhD in management sciences from ESADE and is the author of several publications in the fields of knowledge management, collaborative innovation, and entrepreneurship.

Nicholas Stern, medalist in leadership in implementation

Lord Nicholas Stern is an expert in the economics of climate change. He has been chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science since its foundation in 2008.

Over the past 20 years, he has made an outstanding contribution to international climate policy, and to promoting the transition to sustainable, inclusive, and resilient economic development and growth. His report “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” published in 2006 and commissioned by the British Government, had a broad impact nationally and worldwide on decision-makers and business leaders.

Through his advisory role at the United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Economic Forum he improved the understanding of the costs of inaction on global climate change.

In his research activities, Nicholas Stern focuses on the topics of economic development and growth, economic theory, tax reform, public policy and the role of the state and economies in transition. His many honorary degrees, prizes, citations and publications in the most renowned journals testify to a high level of recognition from his peers.

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MYStartup NXT heads to the Land Below The Wind for its next stop

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ecology leaders’ opinions, grant opportunities, and marketing opportunitiesThe Kota Kinabalu innovative ecosystem needs to be strengthened, nurtured, and educated.Following its second and most recent proposal in Penang, MYStartup NXT, a series of micro-conferences, will make its third stop in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah.The initiative emphasizes the significance of a sustainable and inclusive…Continue Reading