SMALL BEGINNINGS VNG was born in 2004 as Vinagame, a start-up with just five people, who prepared the launch of their – and Vietnam’s – first online game by travelling the country on motorcycles. They plastered posters for the game across 5,000 internet cafes, the founders say. They have nowContinue Reading
China’s expanding naval presence in the Pacific Ocean and the South and East China Seas has become a major focus for Australia, the US and its allies.
Australia’s latest strategic defense review, for instance, was prompted, in part, by the rapid modernization of China’s military, as well as its increasing naval presence in the South China Sea.
According to the US Department of Defense’s most recent annual report to Congress, China’s navy has been strengthened with the addition of 30 new warships over the past 12 months. By 2030, the total number of ships is expected to increase to 435, up from the current 370.
But China is not the only potentially adversarial maritime power that is flexing its muscles in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia is becoming a cause for concern, too, even though the 2023 strategic review did not mention it.
My latest research project, Battle Reading the Russian Pacific Fleet 2023–2030, recently commissioned and published by the Royal Australian Navy, shows how deeply the Russian military is investing in replenishing its aging, Soviet-era Pacific Fleet.
Between 2022 and October 2023, for instance, it commissioned eight new warships and auxiliaries, including four nuclear-powered and conventional submarines. On December 11, two new nuclear-powered submarines formally joined the fleet, in addition to the conventional RFS Mozhaisk submarine, which entered service last month.
These figures may not look as impressive as the new Chinese vessels mentioned above, but it’s important to recognize that the Russian Navy has the unique challenge of simultaneously addressing the needs of four fleets (in the Arctic and Pacific oceans and Black and Baltic seas), plus its Caspian Sea flotilla.
Furthermore, Russia’s war in Ukraine has not had a considerable impact on the Pacific Fleet’s ongoing modernization or its various exercises and other activities. Between early 2022 and October 2023, for instance, the Pacific Fleet staged eight strategic-level naval exercises, in addition to numerous smaller-scale activities.
In addition to rebuilding its once-powerful navy, the Russians are committing enormous resources to building up naval ties in the Indo-Pacific and strengthening their key maritime coalitions.
In recent months, for instance, a naval task group of the Pacific Fleet embarked on a tour across Southeast and South Asia. This tour made international headlines but was effectively overlooked by the Australian media.
The Russian warships spent four days in Indonesia, then staged their first-ever joint naval exercises with Myanmar and another exercise later with India. The ships then visited Bangladesh for the first time in 50 years, followed by stops in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
The tour signals a widening of Russia’s scope in the region, though its most important naval partner remains China.
According to my findings, between 2005 and October 2023, the Russian and Chinese navies have taken part in at least 19 confirmed bilateral and trilateral (also involving friendly regional navies) exercises and three joint patrols.
The most recent was carried out in mid-2023, when the Russian and Chinese joint task force was deployed to the North Pacific, not far from the Alaskan coast.
Canberra’s preoccupation with China should not make us blind to other potential adversaries that could threaten our national security in the medium to long term.
According to my estimates, by the time the Royal Australian Navy commissions its first Hunter class frigate and the first Virginia-class, nuclear-powered attack submarine begins operations in 2032, the replenished Russian Pacific Fleet would have a battle force of at least 45 core warships.
This is expected to include 19 nuclear-powered and conventional submarines, supported by minor combat and auxiliary elements. Most of these units would be newly designed and built.
This clearly shows that if war someday breaks out in the Pacific, the Russian Pacific Fleet could present a formidable challenge to Australian and allied naval fleets in the western and northwestern Pacific, as well as the Arctic.
Australia’s decision to acquire nuclear-powered platforms from the United States and United Kingdom suggests our intent to support and engage in long-range maritime operations with our allies, possibly as far as the northern Pacific and Arctic oceans.
And in times of crisis short of open war, Russia will also have more assets to support operations around Southeast Asia and in the Indian Ocean, extending its reach closer to the Royal Australian Navy’s areas of immediate concern.
Finally, the deepening naval cooperation between China and Russia could become a risk factor in its own right as the two countries seek to counter the AUKUS security pact. This is especially true with the possibility of expanded joint naval operations in the Pacific.
Despite the tyranny of distance between Australia and Russia, we are no longer irrelevant in Moscow’s strategic planning. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made this clear in recent remarks blasting AUKUS as a threat to stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
This means Australia’s navy and its maritime ambitions are increasingly being viewed as a risk factor to the Kremlin.
During the Cold War confrontation in the Asia-Pacific, the Soviet Union’s naval power in the region was a primary point of strategic concern for Australia, the US and its allies. This is once again proving to be true.
Alexey D Muraviev is Associate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies, Curtin University
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
PHUKET: The outcome of the first direct flight from New Delhi to this resort island province has sparked optimism in the tourism industry.
It is expected that direct flights from the Indian capital, operated by Air India, will increase from four days a week to every day starting next month.
The positive outlook follows the inaugural flight of AI378, which arrived in Phuket on Friday. Visitors were welcomed by provincial governor Sophon Suwanrat and Phuket Airport Director Monchai Tanod.
Lertchai Wangtrakuldee, director of the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s (TAT) Phuket office, said Indians comprise the third largest number of arrivals to the province, after Russian and Chinese tourists.
He said direct flights will bring more travellers from India, and it is hoped that their arrival will offset a slow recovery in the Chinese market.
There are about 1,000 Indian visitors in Phuket per day, and the number from January to November stood at 235,070, according to the TAT.
Overall, there are about 14,000 to 15,000 foreigners in the province per day, an increase from 10,000 in September, TAT data showed. Phuket hotels have seen an 85% occupancy rate.
Patsee Permvongsenee, director of TAT’s Asean, South Asia and South Pacific department, said direct flights to the resort island will boost local tourism after the government began a visa exemption programme for Indian visitors until May 10 next year.
Air India currently operates four direct flights a week, and each can carry 162 passengers, she said. The airline now plans to operate daily flights starting next month, she noted.
She said the TAT offices in New Delhi and Mumbai are currently carrying out marketing campaigns with their partners to target golfers and newlyweds. Thailand will also be promoted as a wedding destination, she said.
Since the start of the visa exemption programme, the number of Indian visitors to Thailand has jumped from 4,000 daily to about 5,000, the TAT said. More than 1.5 million Indian travellers visited the country from the beginning of January to Dec 10, which represents a 77% recovery when compared with pre-Covid levels in 2019, it said.
It said that the top destinations in Thailand are Bangkok, Chon Buri, Phuket, Krabi and Phangnga. Tourism revenue from the Indian market is estimated to exceed 65.6 billion baht this year, with average spending per head per trip at 39,500 baht.
Thanet Tantipiriyakit, Phuket Tourist Association president, said India is a key market for tourism operators thanks to the short travel time to Thailand.
“Tourists are looking for travel convenience. In addition to travel regulations like visa, a direct flight is also key. There are several segments, from luxury lifestyle travel to honeymoons,” he said.
About 1.5 million Indian tourists have so far visited Thailand this year, surpassing the target, following the introduction of a tourist visa exception scheme, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said on Friday.
Patsee Permvongsenee, TAT Executive Director of Asean, South Asia, and South Pacific Region, said the visa exemption for Indian travellers, in effect from Nov 10 this year until May 10, 2024, has resulted in an increase in daily Indian arrivals from 4,000 people to 5,000-5,500 people.
The number of Indian tourists entering the country has now reached 1.5 million, exceeding the TAT’s earlier target of 1.4 million for this year, said Ms Patsee.
TAT’s New Delhi and Mumbai offices have intensified promotional campaigns with their partners to boost tourist arrivals from India. The campaigns focus on corporate and incentive groups, golfers, wedding and honey-moon groups as they were considered high potential groups, she said during a special activity to welcome the inaugural flight of Air India from New Delhi to Phuket on Friday.
Phuket governor Sophon Suwannarat, executives and officials from the TAT, Phuket airport, government agencies and private firms attended the event to welcome Indian visitors on board flight AI378.
Starting from Friday, Air India will operate four flights per week on the New Delhi-Phuket route, said Ms Patsee. The airline will use A320 Neo airbus that could accommodate 162 passengers per flight for this route that will depart New Delhi on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays. The number of flights will be increased from four per week to daily flights in January, she added.
Direct flights on this route will increase the air-seat capacity between India and Thailand to 2,438,043 seats, marking a 77% rebound from 1992, pre-coronavirus-pandemic.
From Jan 1 to Dec 10 this year, there have been 1.5 million Indian arrivals with an average spending of 39,500 baht per person per trip.
Most Indian arrivals were free independent travellers or FIT which accounted for 75%. Their popular tourist destinations were Bangkok, Chon Buri, Phuket, Krabi and Phangnga, according to the TAT.
Indian tourists arrive at Suvarnabhumi airport, Samut Prakan province, on Nov 10, 2023. (Photo: Nutthawat Wichieanbut)
Monchai Tanode, director of Phuket airport, said Air India will operate seven flights per day after New Year. Currently, India ranks third in terms of passenger arrivals, with Russia in the first position, followed by China, he said.
Lerdchai Wangtrakoondee, director of TAT’s Phuket office, said the inaugural flight of New Delhi-Phuket would further boost the Indian market for the island resort province.
India has moved up to the third position from fourth, with approximately 1,000 Indian tourists visiting Phuket daily. From January to November, there were 235,070 Indian arrivals to the island province.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) holds an activity to welcome tourists from he inaugural flight of Air India from New Delhi to Phuket on Friday. (Photo: Achadthaya Chuenniran)
JAKARTA: Dilapidated boats carrying an estimated 400 ethnic Rohingya arrived in Indonesia’s Aceh province on Sunday (Dec 10), chief of a provincial fishing community has confirmed, adding to a recent surge of Myanmar’s Muslim minority arriving in the country. Prior to Sunday’s arrivals, the United Nations’ refugee agency (UNHCR) saidContinue Reading
Not so long ago, countries were ecstatic about the potential of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a mega-infrastructure scheme launched in 2013 that would connect the world through ports, power grids, railways, roads and telecommunications networks.
Western pundits worried that BRI projects were pulling countries into China’s orbit, empowering Chinese companies and birthing a Sinocentric global order.
For many, it was obvious the road was speeding along as “evidenced” by China’s investments, loans or grants ranging from hundreds of billions to, supposedly, the low trillions of dollars.
Commentators often mixed distinct kinds of monies, classifying loans to countries like Venezuela as BRI loans, equating money invested in or lent to BRI participant countries as BRI money, or labeling projects with no connectivity features as BRI projects. China facilitated these misjudgments by not producing an authoritative BRI project list.
The BRI, initially consisting of the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road Initiative, only raised more concern as it repeatedly broke geographic boundaries, reaching into the Pacific Islands, the Arctic and even outer space.
But one current refrain is that the BRI is falling short of its goals. In fact, before the Third BRI Forum held in Beijing in October 2023, some analysts proclaimed the BRI’s downfall. One only need look at Kenya, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Zambia and perhaps Malaysia to see the dismal state of the BRI.
Italy has opted out and Greece is allegedly no longer enthusiastic, despite the successes of Athens’ BRI-linked Piraeus port. Driven by domestic economic constraints, financial problems with BRI participants and project loans, as well as political pushback from the West, BRI investment and contracting are shrinking.
Facing an uncertain future, another popular contemporary refrain is that the BRI is being rebooted. Beijing has shifted towards what analysts characterize as a “smaller, greener and more beautiful” initiative featuring solar and wind power, ICT infrastructure and ports.
As for the supposed geopolitical ambitions embodied within the BRI, the situation looks rather bleak for China with fewer heads of state attending the October 2023 BRI Forum.
It is easy to paint the current state of the BRI as off-course when it is measured against aspirations it was never likely to reach. Those analyzing the BRI have long pointed out that the complexities of infrastructure, as well as the economic and political shortcomings of numerous BRI participant countries, would adversely affect the BRI’s progress.
Domestic political changes flowing from elections, center–local divides, civil war, terrorism and public protests have time after time stunted, delayed and prevented the realization of BRI projects.
A “smaller, greener and more beautiful” BRI will come against these challenges, which will be coupled with China’s economic downturn, the financial situation of some BRI participants and European disinterest or opposition.
Many of the factors that powered the BRI in the past will continue to power it in the future. China has long been seeking greater market access, pathways to acquire natural resources and ways to improve the security of its resource and trade flows.
As well, Beijing has long searched for ways to deploy its massive foreign currency reserves, internationalize its currency, create opportunities for its companies and promote Chinese tech and standards.
These impetuses will continue to drive the BRI and one that is not necessarily small, green or beautiful. To think that green and ICT-related infrastructure projects will be small ignores reality — green energy projects can easily run into the billions of dollars and hydropower, while green in theory, is not necessarily “beautiful” or entirely non-polluting.
The BRI is not all about “push.” There remain dozens of countries such as Cambodia, Greece and Malaysia continuing to welcome traditional, large-scale BRI projects. The BRI is also much more than Africa or South Asia — the Middle East, for instance, is a place where the BRI will thrive.
The future of the BRI likely will entail a mix of big and small, green and polluting, beautiful and ugly. The key for businesspeople and policymakers is to ignore the generalizations present in many discussions about the BRI. Instead, they should undertake nuanced analyses attentive to regional and national political and economic conditions as well as sectoral dynamics.
They also need to be cautious about making decisions based on the data points of the day as opposed to larger trends that will affect their countries or companies over the medium- to long-term. Only then can policymakers and businesspeople take a smart and targeted approach in dealing with the BRI.
Jean-Marc F Blanchard is Executive Director at the Mr & Mrs S.H. Wong Center for the Study of Multinational Corporations, Palo Alto, United States.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.
Nestled in Pakistan’s Hindu Kush mountains, the remote Kalash valley is a popular tourist destination. But a recent attack by Taliban militants has left people living there afraid for their future.
“It was 04:00 in the morning when we saw men coming down the mountain with turbans on their head, backpacks, weapons and belts of bullets around their bodies,” says a Kalashi shepherd, Michael (not his real name).
He was taking sheep and goats to a nearby pasture with his father, uncle and a friend when the militants attacked their valley.
“There were Taliban everywhere, behind every rock and every tree. One was just a few steps away from me. There must have been more than 200 of them,” Michael recalls. “We hid under big rocks and stayed there for 48 hours.”
The Pakistani authorities sent in forces and say five security officers and at least 20 Taliban militants were killed in the fighting that lasted two days.
“There was an unusual stillness. Everyone was worried and scared. It felt like a war zone,” says Shaira, a mother of two, as she recalls hundreds of troops, military vehicles, drones and attack helicopters hovering over the valley.
Attacks like this have become more frequent in Pakistan in recent months, and although this assault in September took residents by surprise, sources within the government have confirmed they received information and intercepted a phone call hinting at an imminent attack at least a week before it happened.
The Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, said they carried out the assault, reportedly from over the border in neighbouring Afghanistan.
Pakistan has consistently accused Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban of providing shelter to TTP members in provinces along its border with Pakistan and this is seen as one of the most significant cross-border attacks since the Taliban retook control in Kabul in 2021. The Taliban government denies the allegations it provides sanctuary to militants.
Authorities in Pakistan believe the aim of the assault was to take control of the strategically-important Kalash valley.
“Its capture would have given the TTP what they want, causing fear among people and a message to the world that they are strong,” says Muhammad Ali, the district’s deputy commissioner. But he points out: “Our security forces didn’t let that happen.”
The attack has left the indigenous Kalashi community, 400km (250 miles) from Pakistan’s capital Islamabad, feeling tense.
The people in this valley – who claim they are descended from Alexander the Great despite evidence that they are indigenous to South Asia – are renowned for their culture, religion and traditions that are distinct from Pakistan’s Muslim majority.
But the joy they display in their dances and music has been overshadowed by a sense of fear, uncertainty and despair.
As Shaira cradles her one-year-old daughter, she explains that she came back to Kalash after finishing her university degree “to preserve their culture and unique religion”.
The community worships a pantheon of gods and goddesses, holding festivals to mark the seasons and their links with farming. At these times women may declare their love, elope or even end their marriages.
But living in a maze of tiny houses, the people here also face challenges and threats of forced conversions by both Muslim and Christian groups.
And they now fear the latest attack represents a new wave of threats that could spell the end of their community. Many, like Shaira, are wondering what their options are. Where should they go if the Taliban attack again?
“Everyone said the Taliban had come for us Kalashis. They’ll kill us or force us to change our religion,” she says. “We don’t have any resources to leave, so we have to stay in Kalash, dead or alive.”
They are worried that attacks like this could also affect their livelihoods. The Kalash valley attracts a significant number of visitors each year from Pakistan and beyond.
The clash brought both tourism and shepherding in the area to a standstill, as the valley was closed for days. Foreign tourists were evacuated, locals were instructed to stay away, and all roads leading to the valley were barricaded. Troops were deployed, and the pastures became no-go areas.
“Tourists benefit us all, and after this attack, we faced shortages of essentials,” says Kai Meera, a community leader. “We were also unable to take our livestock to the pastures, and there was a complete loss of income.”
After the attack, Pakistan announced the closure of two main border crossings with Afghanistan, which resulted in substantial losses in trade revenue. Thousands of people were stranded at the border crossings for days.
Michael managed to leave his hiding place under the rock after 48 uncomfortable and terrified hours. His body had been bent over for so long he couldn’t walk for a while.
Now back in his village, fear is a constant in his life.
“They [militants] used to cross the border in the past, but they would snatch our livestock at gunpoint and go back. This time they came to take our valley away. I think they’ll come again,” he says.
The deputy commissioner has tried to reassure Michael and the rest of the community, saying: “While it may take some time for the fear to subside, we have decided to fortify the border, increase the number of checkpoints, and bolster border security.”
Shaira shares a parting thought as she leaves her baby sleeping soundly and heads to the fields to gather crops before the winter falls: “War is war, whether it’s the Taliban or someone else. In the end, it’s us, the unarmed people, who suffer and die.”
Arati Kumar-RaoEnvironmental photographer and writer Arati Kumar-Rao travels across South Asia in all seasons to chronicle the subcontinent’s changing landscape. Here, in photos and in her own words words, she captures the increasing threat climate change poses to the lives and livelihoods of the Ladakhi people, who face an uncertain future below the melting glaciers of the Himalayan mountains. Kumar-Rao is one of this year’s Climate Pioneers on the BBC 100 Women list.
The night of 5 August 2010 is still fresh in the memory of the people of Ladakh, in northern India, when it felt like a cloud had burst over the area surrounding the capital, Leh.
One year’s worth of rain fell on the cold desert in just two apocalyptic hours. Massive walls of sludge swallowed up everything in their path. Scrambling people were buried mid-stride under a thick brown-grey mass.
Several hundred people were never found after that fateful night.
The Ladakh region, the northernmost plateau of India, sits more than 3,000m (9,850ft) above sea level. The Greater Himalayan Range shields the region from the annual monsoon that much of the rest of India relies on.
Until recently, Ladakh has been bathed by the sun for 300 days per year, while barely four inches of rain have fallen on the vast landscape of rock and mountains. Floods were virtually unheard of.
The destructive flood of 2010 was followed in quick succession by further floods in 2012, 2015, and most recently, in 2018.
Something that had not happened in seven decades, occurred four times in fewer than 10 years. Such freak weather events are a result of climate change, experts say.
A decade and a half ago there used to be a regular rhythm to the Ladakhi land, which provided villagers with a steady water supply. Winter snow melted to feed streams, just as meltwater from the glaciers trickled down and provided water for farming and agriculture in springtime.
However, climate change has seen average winter temperatures in Ladakh rise by about 1C over the last 40 years.
Snowfall has become increasingly unpredictable and glaciers have retreated farther up towards the peaks, or disappeared altogether.
I first visited Ladakh in 2018. I returned in 2019, and again in spring this year – kept away in the interim by the coronavirus pandemic. The difference was startling.
The snow now melts faster, leaving villagers with little to no water by spring. Glaciers are now so high up in the mountains that they melt later in the year. Ladakhi springtime – once lush and fertile – was dry and silent this year.
A lack of water has led to a decrease in meadows – keeping large flocks of pashmina goats is becoming unviable. The Changpa herders are giving up their traditional livelihoods and migrating to other parts of India or to Leh looking for non-pastoral work.
Farmers, unable to find water for their barley and apricots, are leaving in droves.
Despite the destruction caused by climate change, there is hope for this isolated region.
On my second visit to Ladakh in March 2019, I met engineer Sonam Wangchuk. He told me that on a drive through the valleys in 2013 he noticed a large mound of unmelted ice under a bridge, sheltered from the sun. The sight of that small tower of ice triggered an idea.
“High school maths tells us that a cone is the simple answer,” he grinned at me.
Wangchuk wanted to help villagers freeze water in winter which could be saved for use in spring. Freezing it in the shape of a cone would maximise the volume of ice per square metre of surface area exposed to the sun and lengthen the amount of time it would take to melt.
The engineer assembled a team of local people and began experimenting, looking for the best way of creating cones of ice. Eventually, they found the right formula.
After piping water from a mountain stream down into the valley, the group forced water to flow up a vertical pipe with a fine nozzle attached to its end. The water went up the pipe and exited via the nozzle as a fine spray.
In night-time temperatures of -30C, the spray froze as it exited the pipe. Gradually, as more and more water emerged as spray and turned to ice, the edifice began to resemble a cone.
Now named ice stupas, after Buddhist places of meditation, they have gained popularity all across Ladakh. The structures, some of which tower over 100ft (30m), provide a water supply for a community that has seen climate change disrupt its natural resources.
They also provide a surprising source of entertainment – hotly contested competitions for the tallest stupa take place annually.
But the injustice of the situation is not lost on either Wangchuk or his stupa-building friends. Ladakhi people are paying the price for carbon emissions made elsewhere.
“It is not enough that we keep coming up with technical innovations, keep adapting, keep solving problems,” Wangchuk tells me.
“I want to use ice stupas as much to sensitise the world about the need for a change in behaviour, as I want to use it to provide water for us.”
As a photographer who has travelled across vast spaces of south Asia, I know Ladakh is not alone in its fight.
For the first time in history India and its neighbouring countries, China and Pakistan, face a common enemy – climate change. It has the potential to destroy river basins and threaten the most populated regions of the world. It may be time to come together to shore up resilience against this threat to survival.
Produced by Rebecca Thorn, BBC 100 Women.
BBC 100 Women names 100 inspiring and influential women around the world every year. Follow BBC 100 Women on Instagram and Facebook. Join the conversation using #BBC100Women.
Pakistan’s recent missile technology advancement, shown by the Ababeel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) test launch with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capabilities, signifies a pivotal development in South Asia’s strategic balance and defense capabilities.
The International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) reports that Pakistan last month conducted its second test launch of the Ababeel MRBM designed to carry MIRVs, moving a step closer to achieving the enhanced capability to penetrate India’s nascent missile defenses.
IISS says that the recent test at Sakhi Sarwar range in Punjab province followed the 2005 India-Pakistan agreement on pre-notification for ballistic-missile tests, which included seven Notice to Air Missions issued by Pakistan. It mentions the test was conducted to revalidate various design and technical parameters and evaluate the performance of different subsystems.
IISS notes that the Ababeel is one of two nuclear-capable MRBMs that Pakistan is developing, with the main difference being its MIRV capability, which increases deterrence by increasing the chances of penetrating India’s emergent ballistic-missile defenses.
The institute says that India is also preparing its own MIRV capability, linked to its Agni VI intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that is designed primarily to penetrate Chinese missile defenses and not for use against Pakistan.
MIRVs were first developed in the 1960s to enable a missile to deliver multiple nuclear warheads to different targets, in contrast to traditional missiles that carry one warhead. While the original MIRVs were not designed to penetrate missile defenses, they are much harder to intercept than the traditional missile type.
For instance, the US LGM-30G Minuteman III, the main component of the US ground-based nuclear deterrent, can carry three Mk 21 MIRVs, each with a W87 thermonuclear warhead with a 375 to 475 kiloton yield. MIRVs can also be launched from an ICBM at different speeds and directions, and some MIRV-capable missiles can hit targets 1,500 kilometers apart.
However, MIRVs have their strategic pitfalls. In a 2014 article for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Zachary Keck mentions that MIRVs can destabilize since they emphasize first strikes, as one missile can hit multiple targets.
In connection with that, Keck says MIRVs enable countries to launch various warheads at a single target, with numerous lower-yield warheads being more destructive than a single warhead with an equivalent yield. He also notes that MIRVs make it easier to defeat missile defense systems.
Keck says for all those reasons MIRVs make small and medium-sized nuclear arsenals highly vulnerable to a decapitation first strike, presenting significant capability loss with each launch platform destroyed.
He says that a rival’s acquisition of MIRV capability forces nuclear states to significantly expand and disperse their arsenals to maintain a secure second-strike capability. In addition, he notes that MIRVs create the need to build more nuclear weapons to arm missiles.
In line with those reasons, Pakistan has a multifaceted rationale for acquiring MIRVs. Missile Threat noted in July 2022 that Pakistan’s strategic forces, consisting mainly of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and MRBMs, allow it to target almost any point in India, offsetting the significant conventional military asymmetry between the two rivals.
Islamabad’s MIRV program may be a response to New Delhi’s “Cold Start” military doctrine, formulated in response to past border conflicts with Pakistan and to alleged Pakistan state-sponsored terrorism.
In a December 2022 article in the peer-reviewed BTTN Research Journal, Saba Hanif explains that India developed its Cold Start doctrine in 2004 to swiftly capture small parts of Pakistani territory around 50 to 60 kilometers deep to use as leverage in post-conflict negotiations, prevent an international response and avoid Pakistani nuclear retaliation.
Hanif says that Cold Start involves using eight division-sized integrated battle groups with mechanized infantry, artillery and tanks working with the Indian Air Force to achieve rapid mobilization and shallow territorial gains.
Given Pakistan’s smaller military and limited nuclear arsenal of approximately 165 warheads, it may opt to use MIRVs as tactical battlefield weapons against India’s superior conventional military.
Pakistan may also be concerned about the survivability of its relatively small nuclear force, with MIRVs maximizing retaliation capability for every launch platform and missile that survives initial Indian strikes.
However, Pakistan’s MIRV developments may complicate South Asia’s nuclear triangle dynamics involving Pakistan, India, and China.
In a June 2020 Stimson article, Monish Tourangbam says that the proximity of these nuclear-armed countries raises the risk of nuclear warfare or a two-front war for India in the event of a military standoff.
Tourangbam characterizes this triangle as Pakistan’s efforts to bridge its power asymmetry with India through nuclear deterrence, Chinese support and India’s concerns over China’s growing military capabilities and influence in the region.
However, he notes that the strategic alliance between China and Pakistan is more implicit than explicit, with no clear commitment to mutual defense in case of a war involving either country.
Given that, a May 2022 report by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) highlights that China, India and Pakistan have increased their nuclear arsenal and military technologies, leading to a security dilemma and a higher risk of nuclear conflict.
The report mentions that the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot crisis highlighted the future of India-Pakistan strife, with both nations drawing lessons that could escalate future concerns. It also notes the 2020-2021 Ladakh border clashes between India and China marked a significant deterioration in India-China ties.
In line with that, Daniel Markey notes in a February 2023 USIP article that South Asia’s strategic stability is increasingly precarious due to geopolitical changes and evolving military technologies, including expanding nuclear arsenals and advanced delivery systems.
Markey notes several risks to the region’s strategic stability, such as nuclear escalation from accidents like India’s March 2022 Brahmos missile misfire into Pakistan, the potential for crisis escalation from terrorism or border disputes and deteriorating India-Pakistan relations exacerbated by domestic politics and external factors like the Taliban’s influence in Afghanistan.
He notes that heightened India-China border tensions and their growing military capabilities create fears of conventional and nuclear escalation, contributing to a “cascading security dilemma” where defensive measures by one state spur insecurities and arms advancements in others, potentially leading to an unpredictable and dangerous South Asia arms race.
Getty ImagesThe US Food and Drug Administration has approved the world’s first vaccine for chikungunya, which it sees as an “emerging global health threat”.
The mosquito-borne disease causes fever and joint pains and can be fatal to newborns.
The FDA’s approval is expected to speed up the vaccine’s global rollout.
This year, about 440,000 chikungunya cases, including 350 deaths, have been reported as of September.
There is currently no specific drug to treat chikungunya. South America and South Asia have seen the most number of cases this year.
The vaccine named Ixchiq has been approved for those aged 18 and above and are at high risk of contracting the disease, the FDA said on Friday. It was developed by Europe’s Valneva and will be administered in a single shot.
“Infection with chikungunya virus can lead to severe disease and prolonged health problems, particularly for older adults and individuals with underlying medical conditions,” senior FDA official Peter Marks said.
At least five million chikungunya cases have been reported since 2008, the FDA said. Other symptoms include rashes, headaches and muscle pain. Joint pains can persist for months or even years.
People in tropical and subtropical regions of Africa, Southeast Asia, and parts of the Americas are at the highest risk of infection because mosquitos carrying the chikungunya virus are endemic in these areas.
“However, chikungunya virus has spread to new geographical areas causing a rise in global prevalence of the disease,” the FDA said.
Data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control showed that Brazil has had the highest number of cases so far this year with 218,613.
More than 93,000 cases have also been reported in India, where the capital Delhi saw a large outbreak in 2016.
