US should wade carefully into the Indian Ocean – Asia Times

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The strategic significance of the Indian Ocean region is considerable and growing.

Consisting of vast and diverse maritime geography of several subregions, including the Indian subcontinent, parts of Australia and Southeast Asia, West Asia, and Eastern and Southern Africa; it is home to 2.7 billion people — over a third of the global population — with an average age of 30 years old; it is resource-rich; and it is comprised of some of the fastest growing countries.

The region also connects peoples and economies worldwide via sealines and telecommunication fiber optic submarine cables; significantly, 80% of global maritime oil shipments traverse Indian Ocean waters.

The region, of course, faces major challenges, including actions by nefarious non-state actors such as pirates, smugglers, and terrorists. The ongoing attacks by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red and Arabian Seas that are wreaking havoc on global maritime trade exemplify this problem.

Other challenges include the impact of climate change, which affects the region disproportionately, and growing naval competition, notably as China is increasingly flexing its muscles in the region.

How should the United States approach the Indian Ocean region?

Ambitions and realities

The United States recognizes the importance of maintaining a peaceful, secure and prosperous Indian Ocean region.

In recent years, Washington has embraced the terminology “Indo-Pacific,” as opposed to “Asia-Pacific,” and in 2018 it renamed the US Pacific Command the US Indo-Pacific Command. Even if US strategy documents say little about the Indian Ocean region, several US officials have recently stressed that Washington is committed to elevating its engagement there, notably through new partnerships.

Admiral Eileen Laubacher, special assistant to US President Joe Biden and senior director for South Asia at the US National Security Council, reiterated this commitment at the recently concluded 2024 Indian Ocean Conference.

Admiral Eileen Laubacher. Photo: US Navy

The annual event is spearheaded by the India Foundation and this year was hosted by the Perth USAsia Center in Australia and supported by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs and the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

There are problems, however. The US bureaucracy is not structured to engage the Indian Ocean region.

The US Department of State approaches it through four different bureaus: African Affairs, East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Near Eastern Affairs, and South and Central Asian Affairs. The US Department of Defense, for its part, separates it into three combatant commands: the Indo-Pacific Command, Central Command, and Africa Command.

These divisions make it difficult for the United States to appreciate and address dynamics of the region as a whole, especially maritime developments.

Another problem is that the United States – unlike India, Australia, Japan, and a few others – does not include the Western Indian Ocean or the eastern coast of Africa in its conceptualization of the Indo-Pacific.

The US framing of the Indo-Pacific coincides with the Indo-Pacific Command’s area of responsibility, which ends with India. That further complicates the United States’ ability to craft a unified strategy for the Indian Ocean region.

Perhaps partly due to these bureaucratic and conceptual issues, US engagement of the region has been limited.

US military planes parked at Diego Garcia military base, December 2017. Photo: Facebook

Recognizing it as a priority route and theater for US military power projection, the United States has of late improved its technology and facilities, notably its joint naval base (with the United Kingdom) at Diego Garcia, and increased logistics and supply cooperation with India, with which it wants to strengthen relations, notably as both countries worry about China’s rising power.

But the United States has been slow to roll out non-military programs and engage smaller regional countries. It only has one “ship-rider” agreement in the region (with Seychelles), constraining its ability to promote security cooperation, and only three embassies and two defense attaches to cover seven countries.

The United States also participates as a dialogue partner in one of the two primary regional multilateral bodies, the Indian Ocean Rim Association. But it’s not part of the other, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. More worryingly, in terms of assistance for the development of small regional countries the United States is falling behind China, which is investing massively in ports, fiber optic cables, and other maritime infrastructure.

The United States, therefore, should take immediate steps to adapt its approach to the Indian Ocean region. It should do so by embracing the region as a whole and ramping up engagement, notably by acting as a problem-solver and committed partner.

Embrace the region as a whole

The United States should begin by clearly defining its interests, goals, and priorities in the region as a whole and developing a strategy for it. That work, as mentioned, has not been done.

Broadening the US Indo-Pacific construct to include the Western Indian Ocean and eastern coast of Africa would be a good start. Not only would it bring the United States in line with many of its key partners, notably India, Australia, and Japan, but it would also help identify ways to implement the US Indo-Pacific Strategy in the region.

Meanwhile, the United States should probably steer clear of undertaking a major bureaucratic restructuring to better grasp, and act on, dynamics in the Indian Ocean region because it is too labor-intensive and time-consuming. Yet the appointment of nodal points or coordinators for the region in the US State and Defense Departments would be a good, easy fix to address the problems associated with the current US bureaucratic structure.

Act as problem-solver

The United States could be tempted to engage the region primarily — even only – with an eye to countering China because, after all, that goal is driving much of its foreign policy. Some have made that case, advocating that Washington focus its competition with Beijing in the Indian Ocean region because it has a bigger advantage there than closer to China’s coastline.

A blockade in the region, the argument goes, could help deter Chinese adventurism in the Pacific because it would force Beijing to devote resources to a distant area where it has disadvantages and trigger greater balancing by regional countries, notably India, which would feel threatened by a larger Chinese presence in the theater. The idea is that horizontal escalation in the region could replace vertical escalation in the Pacific.

It is unclear that this approach would work, however, either at the required speed or at all. Balancing by regional countries would also not be given because many have a favorable view of China, and even those that do not, are not prepared to go “all in” against China.

S Jaishankar, Indian minister of external affairs. Photo: Sputnik

Of note, virtually no one participating in the Indian Ocean Conference in Perth this month uttered the words “China” or “deterrence,” let alone in the same sentence. Even S Jaishankar, India’s minister of external affairs, only took oblique swipes at China in his keynote address, never mentioning it explicitly. Besides, many Indian Ocean regional states are suspicious about, and some even opposed to, cooperation with the United States, and there is a deep tradition of non-alignment in the region.

Rather than “countering China,” then, the organizing principle for US engagement in the region should be “fixing problems.” The United States should present itself as a problem-solver, a country that can help address issues of direct concern to IOR countries.

Although regional countries have different goals and priorities, by and large, that means helping respond to non-traditional security threats, including, but not limited to, nefarious non-state actors; illicit trafficking of all sorts; illegal, unregulated, unreported fishing; or climate change.

The recent US commitment to do just that is a good first step, but words should quickly turn into deeds so that regional countries can “see” more concrete deliverables, more regularly.

In this regard, the United States should bear in mind that building partner capacity to respond to non-traditional security threats can have multiple purposes, and therefore multiple payoffs. Enhancing a partner’s ability to combat maritime crime, for instance, simultaneously provides tools useful vis-à-vis China’s maritime developments.

Be a committed partner

Doing more in the Indian Ocean region does not mean that the United States will have to divert resources away from other theaters or the Pacific. The United States can – and should – ramp up engagement of the region while remaining focused on the Pacific.

In addition to repurposing some of its in-theater resources from continental to maritime challenges and maximizing its diplomatic and military visits to regional countries as it transits in the region, as some have recommended, the United States can do more by building on its existing relationships with regional countries and, more importantly, supporting regional leaders.

So, the United States should present itself not just as a problem-solver, but also as a committed partner.

Partnering with India, the predominant regional power, should be priority number one. The United States should build upon the recent flurry of cooperation agreements it has concluded with India and work out ways it can best support Indian activities in the region, be it through

In so doing, the United States should let India be in the driver’s seat, both because Washington should focus on the Pacific and because of possible backyard anxieties from New Delhi about an overly active US presence in the Indian Ocean region.

Ram Madhav. Photo: Wikipedia

Such an approach could benefit the United States in other ways. For instance, Ram Madhav, the President of the India Foundation, has argued that US appreciation and upholding of India’s primacy in the region would encourage New Delhi to “get involved in the imperatives of the Pacific region.”

In other words, US support for Indian leadership in the Indian Ocean region will trigger Indian support for US leadership in the Pacific, a clear upside from a US perspective.

Of course, the United States should work with other regional leaders as well. A staunch US ally often described as the United States’ “southern anchor” in the Indo-Pacific, Australia immediately comes to mind. So do other non-Indian Ocean regional countries, such as Japan, France or the United Kingdom, all of which play important roles in the region.

The United States should seek to leverage their roles to do more in the region, including to resolve longstanding issues such as the Diego Garcia stalemate; some have proposed innovative approaches to the problem.

Alfred Thayer Mahan. Photo: Naval History and Heritage Command

The United States also should urge mini-lateral arrangements such as the Quad, a security arrangement that includes Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, to pivot to the Indian Ocean region and perhaps even to develop ties with the “I2U2 group,” a new cooperative partnership between India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States.

Alfred Thayer Mahan, the now famous US naval strategist, reportedly prophesied in the late 1890s shortly before he became admiral that “The destiny of the world will be decided” on Indian Ocean waters. These words continue to ring true today, and it is thus high time the United States gave the Indo side of the Indo-Pacific the attention it deserves, even as it remains focused on the Pacific.

David Santoro ([email protected]) is president of the Pacific Forum. He specializes in strategic deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation. Santoro’s current interests focus on great-power dynamics and US alliances, particularly the role of China in an era of nuclear multipolarity.

This article, originally published by Pacific Forum, is republished with permission.

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Pakistan needs a plan – Asia Times

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Pakistan is a vast country of 231.4 million people. It’s one of only nine countries in the world with nuclear weapons. It’s located in South Asia, which is now one of the world’s most dynamic and fast-growing regions. It has generally favorable relationships with both the United States and China.

It has a long coastline in a generally peaceful region of the ocean. It has plenty of talented people, as evidenced by the fact that Pakistani Americans, on average, out-earn almost all other ethnic groups in the US.

And yet despite these natural advantages, Pakistan is one of the world’s biggest economic basket cases. It’s a poor country, and its income is growing only very slowly; it has now been passed up by India and Bangladesh, despite starting significantly richer:

If recent growth rates hold, Pakistan is projected to fall far behind its South Asian peers.

And it gets worse. Pakistan isn’t just poor and stagnant; it’s also in a huge amount of debt. In order to make its citizens feel just a little less poor, Pakistan has borrowed quite a lot of money over the past few decades. Mostly, this money was borrowed from the International Monetary Fund.

But because its economy is poor and stagnant and it’s not very good at collecting taxes, Pakistan generally hasn’t been able to pay the money back.

Its solution has been to borrow even more money from the IMF in order to cover the debt that it already owes. As you might expect, this strategy led Pakistan’s foreign debt to increase relentlessly over the years.

More recently, though, Pakistan started borrowing a lot of money from other countries as well — from Saudi Arabia and UAE, but especially from China. Much of the debt from China was related to the Belt and Road project, which was supposed to build new high-quality infrastructure in Pakistan, but…didn’t.

Now Pakistan, like many of the Belt and Road borrowers, is discovering that all those Chinese loans weren’t contingent on whether the projects actually worked out. Shehad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book, explains:

And Brad Setser provides some additional context, declaring that “Pakistan’s leaders should panic a bit more.”

The IMF has bailed out Pakistan many, many times, but that was when it was the IMF itself that Pakistan mainly owed money to. The organization will probably be less willing to lend Pakistan money to cover its Chinese debt, as this would make the Chinese government whole while leaving the IMF holding the bag.

And China is unlikely to extend Pakistan a neverending string of bailouts, as the IMF has done. As the Pakistani American economist Atif Mian puts it, “the country is bankrupt.”

What this means is that Pakistan is in ever greater danger of a classic emerging-market currency crisis, in which a country’s currency gets so cheap that the only ways to pay off foreign debt are either by default or by high inflation — either of which hurts the real economy a lot. Already, the Pakistani rupee has lost a lot of its value:

And inflation is pretty high:

Already, some are talking about the possibility of a Pakistani default.

Pakistan had elections earlier this month. Although the party of the recently ousted Imran Khan won a plurality, Khan’s opponents made a parliamentary coalition and thus managed to take control.

The government is negotiating with the IMF for yet another bailout, which probably won’t alleviate the Chinese debt problem much, but would at least provide some breathing space. Mian, however, is not optimistic that the new government is really serious about solving the country’s long-term problems:

If Mian is right, and Pakistan’s elites have little or no interest in solving the country’s problems, then that’s the whole ball game — Pakistan is doomed, and only a revolution will replace those elites with someone who actually cares enough to take decisive action.

But a revolution would be very likely to either break up the country or burden it with an ideological, totalitarian regime, which would also spell doom. So Pakistan’s leaders have a very large incentive to prove Mian wrong and to make a concerted effort to fix their country’s economy.

Escaping the debt trap is obviously job #1. An IMF bailout will replace old debt with new debt, so it’s just a delaying tactic. A better idea, as Samir Tata writes, is a privatization program — selling off government assets to pay down debt:

The key to escape Pakistan’s sovereign debt trap is hiding in plain sight – deleveraging…[P]rivate holders (e.g., portfolio investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, and corporate investors) of existing Pakistani sovereign debt denominated in foreign currencies would swap such debt for shares of state-owned enterprises that are to be privatized…

Privatization would have two objectives: raising cash via the sale of state-owned assets and reducing the budgetary burden of supporting poorly performing loss-making state-owned enterprises…An example of an individual transaction to transfer control of an SOE to a foreign company could be the sale of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to a foreign airline company.

That trick would really only work once — you pretty quickly run out of SOEs to privatize — but it would give Pakistan a single golden opportunity to escape from the crushing cycle of foreign debt that has characterized the last forty years.

So how can Pakistan take advantage of that one-time opportunity? The answer, in broad strokes, is that it needs to invest more.

Right now, Pakistan builds very, very little new capital. Whereas Bangladesh and India are reinvesting 32 and 29% of their GDP each year, respectively, Pakistan is reinvesting only 14%:

As I put it in a post back in 2021, this means Pakistan is a low-income consumption society:

Pakistan is eating its proverbial seed corn instead of planting it in the ground. Bangladesh and India, in contrast, are planting their seed corn — foregoing current consumption in order to build productive capital and be richer tomorrow…Pakistan is behaving like a lot of natural resource exporters behave — but without the natural resources. Instead of a middle-income or high-income consumption society, it’s a low-income consumption society — keeping its people barely treading water, with lots of help from external largesse.

How can Pakistan increase investment? Obviously, when the government is so strapped for cash, it can’t do much.

A privatization program, coupled with bailouts, might get it out from under the debt burden, but it would still have to figure out how to tax the economy more effectively. That’s a worthy goal, but one that will probably take a lot of time and effort.

In lieu of government investment, Pakistan will have to rely on the private sector. Pakistani businesses will invest more if the country is both politically stable and macroeconomically stable. The former is something that Pakistan’s elites have to work out for themselves, while the latter mainly requires reducing the foreign debt burden and curbing inflation.

But that leaves one important actor: foreign investors. FDI is a tried-and-true strategy that has lifted countries like Malaysia to near-developed status, and which helped Bangladesh grow quickly in the 2000s and 2010s.

The most important type of FDI for Pakistan, by far, will be greenfield investment in export manufacturing.

This is when companies come to set up factories in Pakistan to make stuff to sell elsewhere. This kind of export-oriented investment can help narrow a country’s trade deficit, even as it also provides employment, raises productivity, and pumps money into the country’s financial system.

Pakistan has low wages, but by itself, that’s not typically enough to attract a bunch of FDI. Foreign companies need more than just low wages — they need water and electricity and transport infrastructure, they need government assistance in setting up their business, they need cheap financing, and they need low regulatory and tax burdens.

But most of all, they need security. They need to know they aren’t going to lose their business. There are basically three kinds of people who can destroy or appropriate your business assets — the government, rebels/terrorists, and criminals.

If Pakistan’s government is serious about attracting FDI, it’ll avoid expropriating foreign businesses’ assets; instead, it’ll roll out the red carpet and give them what they need.

Rebels and terrorists are a bigger threat, as Pakistan has both. Baloch separatists have attacked Chinese workers and projects. And various Islamist terrorists, including the Taliban, have attacked Pakistani cities. They might conceivably try to blow up foreign factories.

Crime is also a problem. Karachi, the country’s biggest port, is beset by chronic gang warfare, and for a while was considered one of the world’s most dangerous cities. There has been a big effort to clean it up, but high violence rates persist.

Yet Pakistan has shown that it’s capable of creating pockets of public safety, if it really wants to. The capital, Islamabad, is generally viewed as an extremely safe city.

So the best approach for Pakistan is to make heavy use of special economic zones. SEZs are places where foreign businesses can cluster and find qualified workers easily. But they’re much more than that — they’re places where governments in poor countries can create pockets of stability and good infrastructure.

Within a designated factory zone on the coast, Pakistan’s government can use the army and police to provide security from terrorists and criminal gangs. And even its meager resources are probably enough to provide those small areas with electricity, water, roads, port infrastructure, and so on.

Pakistan already has a few SEZs, many of them created as part of Pakistan’s economic partnership with China. These should be upgraded and expanded, if possible. But more importantly, these existing SEZs and some new SEZs should be opened up to countries other than China.

Companies in the US, France, South Korea, and other developed democracies are eager to de-risk their operations by moving them out of China; right now they’re moving to India, Vietnam, and Mexico, but Pakistan could make itself another contender. All it has to do is to encourage developed democracies to come set up shop in its special economic zones, right alongside their Chinese rivals.

Pakistan has been playing the developed democracies off against China for a while now, using its possession of nuclear weapons and its strategic importance in fighting terrorism to pressure both sides of Cold War 2 into letting it borrow cheaply and in large volumes. Now it’s time to use that same strategic importance to encourage FDI instead of loans.

There are a couple of other ingredients Pakistan will need in order to take advantage of FDI. One is education. No country is an attractive base of operations without a large base of workers who can read, write, and do basic math.

Pakistan scores notoriously poorly on international measures of education, with much lower literacy rates than Bangladesh. Indices of human capital place Pakistan more on a level with the very poor countries of Sub-Saharan Africa.

This obviously needs to change, and quickly. Simply spending more on public education is clearly the solution here. The government is strapped for cash, but if foreign debt can be reduced and tax collection improved, then there will be some money to invest in quality public schooling for the mass of Pakistanis.

The final thing Pakistan needs is peace with India. This idea will doubtless ruffle some feathers in the Pakistani military and the more nationalistic elements of Pakistani society, who view resistance to India as their country’s national purpose.

But it’s time to face facts — Pakistan has gone to war against India four times, in 1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999, and it lost every time. India is just way too big for Pakistan to ever beat.

The old adage goes: “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.” Pakistan has failed to defeat India in more than 70 years of trying, and it’s time to stop. Pakistan should recognize that it controls part of Kashmir, and India controls the other part, and that’s how it’s going to stay.

A lasting rapprochement between these two countries may sound like an unrealistic pipe dream, but it happened to Germany and France, and it’s now happening to Japan and Korea, so maybe it could happen to Pakistan and India as well.

Instead, the focus should be on opening up trade links and economic cooperation between the two countries. This will improve Pakistan’s security because it will free up military resources to provide security for special economic zones and foreign investors.

It could also improve Pakistan’s fiscal position since it would allow decreased spending on the military. And most importantly, trade with India would give Pakistan’s economy a direct boost.

This is South Asia’s moment to shine in the global economy. Pakistan needs to take advantage of that moment before it’s too late. If it misses the window, it’ll end up being a poor, dysfunctional backwater, while India and Bangladesh advance confidently to middle-income status and beyond.

Success will require determination, pragmatism, compromise, dogged purposefulness, and some smart planning on the part of Pakistan’s elites. But the alternatives are just too awful to contemplate.

This article was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion Substack and is republished with kind permission. Read the original and become a Noahopinion subscriber here.

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Multilateralism a catalyst for sustainable development – Asia Times

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The pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represents a concerted effort by the international community to confront the most pressing global challenges of our era.

These goals, which were adopted by the United Nations in 2015, articulate a shared vision for achieving a sustainable future that is equitable, inclusive, and resilient. The SDGs are comprehensive, covering a broad spectrum of issues, including poverty, health, education, climate change, and environmental protection.

As a collective framework, they offer a unique opportunity to transform our world by the year 2030, but this transformation demands more than just aspiration; it requires a robust commitment to multilateralism and international cooperation.

The SDGs were designed to be universal, taking into account the different realities, capacities, and levels of development across nations, and respecting national policies and priorities. However, the journey toward achieving these goals has been fraught with challenges.

Complex challenges

The complexity of the SDGs is evident as they encompass a broad range of interrelated issues.

Poverty eradication (SDG 1) remains a persistent challenge, with the World Bank reporting that more than 700 million people still live in extreme poverty, struggling to fulfill the most basic needs such as health, education, and access to water and sanitation​​.

The pursuit of zero hunger (SDG 2) is another critical challenge, as food insecurity and malnutrition continue to affect millions, compounded by the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food production.

The Covid-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on progress toward good health and well-being (SDG 3), disrupting global public-health achievements and impeding pathways to ensure healthy lives and well-being for all.

The repercussions extended to other SDGs, notably affecting vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and low-wage workers, particularly under SDG 10 (reduced inequalities).

Recognizing the interconnected nature of global challenges, the World Health Organization underscores the significance of strong partnerships where multilateralism is deemed essential for post-Covid recovery, aligning with the SDGs.

In addressing quality education (SDG 4), substantial progress has been made, but disparities in access and quality persist, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has reported that about 258 million children and youth are out of school, indicating a significant gap in achieving inclusive and equitable quality education for all.

The goal of gender equality (SDG 5) is foundational to the SDGs, recognizing that empowering women and girls has a multiplier effect and accelerates progress across all development areas​​.

The challenges of climate action (SDG 13) are becoming ever more apparent. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns of the dire consequences of global warming, which is projected to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2040 if current trends continue.

To mitigate climate change and its impacts, there is an urgent need for significant investments in renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, and climate-resilient practices.

Collaboration essential

The call for multilateralism in achieving the SDGs is not merely about collaboration but about a fundamental restructuring of international cooperation. It requires a concerted effort to create a global partnership for sustainable development (SDG 17) that is predicated on shared values, visions, and goals.

The United Nations has repeatedly emphasized the need for a renewed approach to multilateralism – one that is more networked, inclusive, and effective​​​​.

Financial reform is also a critical aspect of this new multilateralism. There is a significant financing gap in developing countries, which has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), achieving the SDGs by 2030 will require an annual investment of about US$6 trillion. Closing this gap will necessitate not only increased aid and domestic resource mobilisation but also innovative financing mechanisms that can leverage private capital​​.

The digital divide presents another profound challenge in the pursuit of the SDGs. As the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) reports, despite growing Internet penetration, nearly half the world’s population remains offline.

Addressing this divide is crucial for ensuring access to information and knowledge, as well as for the full participation in the digital economy, which can be a lever for development and a means of achieving the SDGs​​.

In conclusion, the path toward 2030 is complex. Achieving the SDGs requires persistent efforts, innovative solutions, and a renewed commitment to multilateralism.

The world needs to bridge the gap between current realities and the sustainable future we aspire to create. This calls for a paradigm shift in the way nations cooperate, finance development, and embrace technology.

It is only through such transformative changes that the international community can hope to fulfill the ambitious agenda set forth by the SDGs and ensure that no one is left behind.

The vision for a sustainable future is within reach, but it mandates that all stakeholders work together in an unprecedented alliance of shared responsibilities and coordinated action.

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‘Cheap Japan’ falling fast on global economy tables – Asia Times

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TOKYO – No Japanese leader wants to preside over a bad milestone — like your economy dropping from No 3 to No 4 globally.

Welcome to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s hellish 2024. Barely six weeks in, Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party is struggling to spin Japan’s falling behind Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) in US dollar terms and the LDP’s culpability for this symbolic changing of the guard.

Kishida’s party is also giving Chinese leader Xi Jinping something of a much-needed soft power win. At a moment when Beijing is struggling to tame a property crisis, head off deflationary forces, restore confidence in the stock market and address record youth unemployment, news that it is pulling further ahead of arch-rival Tokyo sure is making for a welcome positive news cycle.

Japan, meanwhile, entered 2024 in recession. GDP contracted an annualized 0.4% in the October-December period after a 3.3% retreat in the previous quarter. “Japan’s economy is in poor shape,” says Stefan Angrick, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Yet that’s true, too, of the longer-term trajectory as Germany surpassing Japan indicates.

Granted, this change in the league tables might rock Tokyo a bit less than China blowing past Japan’s annual output. Depending on which data set you use, that happened in 2010 or 2011, somewhere between the premierships of Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda, and set the stage for the LDP’s return to power in 2012.

At the time, premier Shinzo Abe didn’t exactly sell his return to power as a beat-China mission. But so-called “Abenomics” was indeed a reformist retort to China becoming the world’s No 2 and Japan relegated to third place.

Sadly, the Abe era prioritized weakening the yen over reviving Japan’s once-vaunted innovative spirits. That failure, 11 years on, did more than anything to enable Germany to put Japan in the rearview mirror.

Adding insult to injury is the “sick man of Europe” narrative now plaguing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s economy.

Germany’s once-fabled growth model has lost its groove. China’s slowdown and Russia’s war on Ukraine have become headwinds for Germany. So is softening global demand for autos, machinery, chemicals and other vital German industrial products.

At a moment when Europe is desperate for growth engines, Germany is looking at its second year of post-pandemic economic disappointment.

“At this point, economic underperformance of the German economy and the whole Eurozone is the key risk to the downside to our forecasts,” says Juraj Kotian, an economist at Erste Group Bank AG.

Economist Daniel Kral at Oxford Economics says “it’s clear that Germany was the worst performer among the major eurozone economies last year.”

In other words, it’s debatable whether Germany overtook Japan or Tokyo ceded the road to its fellow Group of Seven member. And this gets us back to Kishida, who’s now fighting for his political life.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida looks wobbly. Image: Twitter Screengrab

Kishida ended 2023 with a 17% approval rating largely because inflation has been outpacing top-line growth and wage gains. On top of a host of political finance scandals afflicting his party, Kishida is now struggling to finesse the second bad milestone of recent months.

The other: China overtaking Japan to become the globe’s largest exporter of automobiles. Those headlines brought back that 2010-2011 feeling that Japan has little choice but to accept China’s rising dominance in Asia.

But might this latest wake-up call be the one that jolts the LDP from its legislative slumber?

Since October 2021, Kishida telegraphed a series of promising ideas to take control of the economic narrative. One was a “new capitalism” that redistributes wealth to middle-class families to boost consumption. Another was catalyzing a startup boom to disrupt Japan’s top-down and rigid economic system.

This latter scheme seemed particularly promising. It entails opening a path for the $1.5 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest such entity, to help finance entrepreneurs and provide incentives to pull more overseas innovators Japan’s way.

But just as during the 2012-2020 tenure of mentor Abe, Kishida’s 28-plus months in office have been maddeningly unproductive from a structural reform perspective. In fact, Kishida has put virtually no upgrades on the scoreboard.

Falling to No 4 globally seems as good a reason as any to get busy. What better way to get Kishida’s approval ratings back toward 30% than clawing back Japan’s global economic status?

Were economic time travel possible, imagine where Japan might be if Kishida’s party had acted boldly since 2012. If only it had moved more assertively then to reduce bureaucracy, increase innovation and productivity, alter the tax code in favor of startups, empower women, lure foreign talent and remind global CEOs and investors that Tokyo is as good a place to be as any.

Yet the second-best moment to launch a financial “big bang” is the present. First, though, Kishida and his party have to move beyond the weak yen crutch on which they have been leaning.

An undervalued exchange rate and hyper-aggressive Bank of Japan policies took pressure off government officials and corporate chieftains to do the hard work of recalibrating growth engines or taking risks.

Now, Tokyo’s weak yen-centric strategy is backfiring. The reason? The “cheap Japan” strategy of recent years is increasingly diminishing Japan’s global relevance in GDP terms.

This characterization has been popularized in recent years by economist Hideo Kumano at Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute. Since at least 2019, he’s been warning that reducing Japanese purchasing power in the long run is a risky way to boost GDP in the short run.

The costs of this complacency can be seen in Kishida’s abysmal approval ratings but also in how Japan is essentially walking in place as even troubled Germany steps forward.

Meanwhile, India is setting the stage for the next round of surpassing-Japan headlines that Tokyo must explain to the next generation of voters. Being surpassed by South Asia’s biggest economy would be another big blow to the collective Japanese psyche.

Of course, the magnitude of headwinds facing Germany is a source of keen debate. At Davos in January, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner dismissed the “sick man” label.

“I know what some of you are thinking: Germany probably is a sick man. Germany is not a sick man — Germany is a tired man after a short night,” Lindner said, arguing that the economy just needs a “cup of coffee” to regain momentum.

Japan bulls make a similar point as Tokyo stocks rally to the highest levels in 30-plus years. “We remain bullish on Japan equities which are our largest overweight recommendation in our coverage universe,” says strategist Jonathan Garner at Morgan Stanley MUFG.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is currently over 38,000 and “now seems likely to break near term the all-time high of 38,916 which was set as long ago as December 1989,” Garner says.

“In our view, the major turning point for the Japanese equity market came in late 2012 – when the Nikkei was below 9,000 – with the launch of the three arrows of Abenomics and [the BOJ’s] initiation of an innovative policy approach to combat deflation,” he says.

Amundi Asset Management strategist Eric Mijot argues that Japan’s stock market “remains attractive.” As economic headwinds intensify, he says, “this robust performance is unlikely to be replicated with the same strength in 2024, but the outlook for the market remains favorable.”

Sadly, though, all Japan is proving in 2024 is that 1980s-style “trickle-down economics” works no better today.

A woman looks at shoes on sale at an outlet store in Tokyo’s shopping district, Japan. Photo: Asia Times Files / Twitter Screengrab

Abe did indeed take steps to strengthen corporate governance, setting the stage for record profits and share buybacks. But none of these tweaks translated into significant wage increases or broad-based efforts to increase productivity and innovation.

At the same time, everything BOJ officials thought they knew about 2024 is going awry. “The Bank of Japan will likely now become even more cautious about any policy change,” says economist Min Joo Kang at ING Bank.

Just six weeks ago, it seemed a foregone conclusion that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda would end quantitative easing (QE) and raise rates as soon as next month. Now, economists are scrambling to walk back those expectations.

A similar whiplash is confronting Fed watchers in the US as the economy confounds the skeptics.

“While pricing for the March [Fed meeting] has been trimmed to negligible levels, there’s still latent upside fuel for the US dollar in pricing for FOMC meetings beyond that,” says strategist Richard Franulovich at Westpac. “We assume US resilience can extend well into 2024 … and will make for a bumpy disinflation last mile.”

In the meantime, as the “cheap Japan” problem ruins Tokyo’s year, the race is on to see what drops faster: Kishida’s approval numbers, Japan’s GDP – or any remaining hope that Japan will ever regain its position as a top-three global economy.

Follow William Pesek on X, formerly Twitter, at @WilliamPesek

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Imran Khan’s PTI-backed candidates emerge as strong contenders in Pakistan election

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With a vote count underway, candidates backed by jailed cricket star Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have emerged as a challenge to former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who has been widely regarded as the man to beat.

The independent candidates’ popularity is not unexpected, analysts told CNA on Friday (Feb 9).

It was projected that if electoral turnout was healthy, these candidates might pull off a surprise victory, said Associate Professor Mariam Mufti from the Department of Political Science at University of Waterloo in Canada.

Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar ul Haq Kakar said that turnout was high among the about 128 million registered voters. 

As of Friday afternoon, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) had announced results for 15 of the 265 contested seats in parliament, according to Al Jazeera’s live blog, showing close competition between PTI and Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party.

The high voter turnout shows that PTI has been the most popular political party in the run-up to the election and that citizens went out to show their allegiance, said Dr Mufti.

“The electorate in Pakistan has generally been so disheartened by the allegations of corruption, by the fact that this election was being referred to as a selection instead of an election where the military had already predetermined the winner, that I think voters have come out to show that they had a choice and that they were going exercise their choice,” she told CNA’s Asia First.

Observers believe the nation’s powerful military is backing Sharif. The military has denied such allegations, and says it remains apolitical.

Dr Amit Ranjan, research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Institute of South Asia Studies, noted that even before the election was announced, there were reports that PTI was going to do well.

This is despite the commission in December stripping PTI of the iconic bat symbol on technical grounds that the party had not held internal elections, a prerequisite for any political party to take part in national polls.

PTI candidates contested using individual symbols.

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Dividing line between clean and corrupt countries – Asia Times

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Along with the World Bank’s Department of Institutional Integrity staff, I co-led an investigation into a billion dollar health job in Odisha, India, in 2008. Our goal was to dispel corruption-related rumors, and the journey took us to almost 50 institutions across the state.

What we found was startling: the system was heavily entwined with a web of corruption. It was shocking to learn firsthand how a sizable payment amount intended for the common good was diverted by politicians and bureaucrats.

The information we gathered painted a bleak portrait of an opaque system. When we informed the Odisha state of our findings, it shocked the entire administration.

A public outcry that reached the state legislature was greatly aided by the media in boosting our message. Lastly, the Odisha Vigilance Department received the situation from the government, which prompted some action.

The battle was far from above, though. I was subjected to pressure, threats, and abuse that served as a stark reminder of the people involved’s enormous power. It became painfully obvious that overcoming for forces, especially for a regular member, was no simple task.

My experience has shown that fighting corruption calls for unwavering commitment, the capacity to resist harassment, and a continuous pursuit of justice. Only then will we be able to destroy the sneaky sites that continue to plague our systems and make sure that public funds are used for everyone’s benefit. &nbsp,

Even though the concept of problem may have changed fifteen years later, the struggle for accountability has not changed. Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index ( CPI ) paints a depressing picture, showing that the systemic problems I saw still exist. Although the size and designs may have changed, the fight against corruption still requires bravery and tenacity.

According to the CPI- 23 statement, more than two-thirds of nations fall short of the standard for good governance. The Covid- 19 crisis served as a breeding ground for fraud, with asset distribution and emergency messages making it easy to commit crimes. Lack of protection made it possible for people to take advantage of important issues like health treatment and relief efforts.

Corruption’s hold on the world

Despite having typically lower rates of corruption, East Asia is concerned about condition capture and the undue influence of influential business groups. As Pakistan and Afghanistan struggle with political unrest, a shaky rule of law, and administrative problems that obstruct anti-corruption efforts, the nbsp says that South Asia is viewed as having both advantages and disadvantages.

This difficulty is echoed in Southeast Asia, where Singapore is leading the fight against corruption and Cambodia and Myanmar are battling organized crime and political meddling.

The dominance of the ruling parties and the abuse of resources present serious obstacles to accountability and transparency. Due to their limited resources, lax rule of law, propensity for widespread fraud, state capture, and crime, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East experience particularly difficult challenges. &nbsp,

Corrupt actors frequently employ advanced techniques to hide their wrongdoings, whereas governments with transparent procedures and constrained political clout may purposefully withhold information. Data set efforts can be hampered by inadequate legal frameworks, restricted media exposure, and the effect of criminal networks.

It is challenging to monitor changes and gauge improvement because corruption is so covert. Clarity is additionally hampered by poor governance, constrained data collection systems, and deliberate information suppression by regimes.

The absence of actual data continues to be a major limitation, even though the CPI- 2023 relies on professional assessments and surveys.

Who benefits from hiding problem information? is a vital question that this raises. What challenges exist in various nations? How can we get past these obstacles? What challenges exist in various nations? Data collection attempts may be hampered by &nbsp, inadequate legal frameworks, restricted media exposure, and the impact of judicial networks.

According to the review, nations with deteriorating democratic institutions and the rule of law typically have higher levels of corruption. This is due to the importance of political checks and balances and a powerful independent courts in preventing problem.

These crucial safeguards are in danger as dictatorship and democracy grow in many nations. The lack of a universally agreed-upon description of bribery makes measuring it even more difficult, adding to the difficulty. The creation of precise and achievement methods for data collection and study is hampered by this lack of standardization. &nbsp,

constructing roads rather than windows

Despite its drawbacks, the CPI acts as a crucial wake-up contact. It emphasizes the need for more reliable data collection strategies that use cutting-edge strategies like social media analysis and sophisticated data analysis to reveal hidden designs.

We can develop more precise instruments and take efficient action to combat corruption’s damaging effects on our planet by acknowledging the restrictions of the CPI and constantly working to solve them. This is about people’s life, not just statistics. This shed some light on the gloom and create a future devoid of fraud.

First and foremost, it’s important to strengthen political institutions, guarantee information access, and establish robust justice systems. For long-lasting change, encouraging people participation and giving citizens the ability to keep their governments accountable are also crucial.

Supporting separate studies, enhancing journalist protection, and promoting international cooperation are crucial actions. Utilizing cutting-edge methods like social media analysis and sophisticated data analysis may also reveal hidden styles.

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Imran Khan is in jail. Pakistan has never been more divided

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Imran Khanshabby graphics
By Farhat Javed, Tarhub Asghar &amp, and Kelly Ng
Islamabad, Lahore, and Singapore

There is a ground law in the Zeshaan home that states that political discussions are not permitted when the home is present.

Soon after Imran Khan was chosen as Pakistan’s prime minister in July 2018, a principle was established.

” I recall that my parents did not cast a ballot in the 2018 votes for Imran Khan. He was n’t in contact with my sister or me for three months. Nida Zeshaan, who calls herself a “diehard Khan supporter,” said,” We could n’t sit together at meals or anything.”

No other lawmaker has shattered Pakistani relationships as much as the former cricket star who rose to become prime minister before being ousted, despite the fact that social disagreements between families and friends are not unusual.

Khan was chosen because of his campaign pledge to combat fraud and revive the faltering business, but he has been engaged in a number of legal battles since his downfall in 2022. He is currently prohibited from running for public election on Thursday due to a number of legal views. The 71-year-old asserts that these are socially motivated to remove him from office.

Despite this, he continues to dominate discussions before the ballot on February 8th.

We were unable to sit up at foods.

Ms. Zeshaan says,” I can say it out loud that I love Imran Khan, but my father does n’t think he’s a good politician.”

The 32-year-old housewife claims that Khan’s ideal of an Islamic welfare state ( or Riyasat-e-Madin ), “where equality and equity can be for everyone,” particularly appealed to her.

However, the nationalist politician’s perceived close ties to the government at the beginning of his political career are what her father dislikes about him.

Pakistan’s political system is significantly influenced by the military, which is widely regarded as its most potent establishment. Since its founding in 1947, it has immediately ruled the nation for more than three decades and has remained significant ever since.

Three out of the four military dictators in Pakistan were able to act for longer than nine years each, despite the fact that no prime minister has ever completed a five-year name.

” I think my father was evaluating Khan based on his previous career. We’ve decided not to discuss elections when we are together because social differences are difficult to resolve, according to Ms. Zeshaan, who resides in Lahore, the second-largest town in Pakistan.

It is commonly believed that Khan’s military establishment in Pakistan helped him rise to political prominence at first, but after he took office, tensions between the two sides grew. He reportedly had a disagreement with then-military leaders over who should lead the nation’s intelligence organization.

Finally, four years after becoming prime minister, Khan was removed from office in a vote of no confidence that he claims was supported by the US in “foreign conspiracy” that also included Pakistan’s defense. The US and the defense have both refuted these claims.

His followers were inspired by this and, like Ms. Zeshaan, jumped to his defense.

” However, he did not have enough opportunities and time to put all of these things into practice. Additionally, she claimed that the country’s conditions and other forces prevented him from performing.

His financial and anti-corruption promises have disappointed many Pakistanis, but even from behind bars, his popularity has not diminished.

His approval ratings are 57 %, which puts him just ahead of his rival Sharif Nawaz with 52 % of the vote, according to a Gallup opinion poll conducted in December. Khan was chosen by some Muslim finance professionals to lead the nation’s faltering business, according to a Bloomberg survey conducted last month.

Farmer Muhammad Hafeez

Some people claim that Khan’s portrayal of himself as a” change candidate” who promised to put an end to dynastic elections sparked an uprising in politics.

” It was Imran Khan and his group who explained to a peasant like me how two events pillaged the country’s money.” Farmer Muhammad Hafeez, who resides in the Punjabi town of Nabipura, said,” He taught us how to vote for change.”

Mr. Hafeez was referring to the Pakistan Muslim League ( PML-N) and Pakistan People’s Party ( PP ), two political families that have long dominated Pakistani politics.

They teamed up to overthrow Khan and his PTI in 2022 after after being fierce competitors.

Sharif Nawaz, the PML-N candidate, is widely anticipated to win the election and take office as prime minister for a record-breaking third term.

This is viewed as a significant improvement in his social situation. In a military coup in 1999, he was removed from his second term and given the death penalty for charges of terrorism, kidnapping, and fraud.

He was elected prime minister for a second time in 2013 after returning to Pakistan from exile in Saudi Arabia in 2007. Following a bribery investigation involving the Panama Papers, he was ousted from office in 2017 and given seven years in prison for another transplant case the next year. This made it possible for Khan to be prime minister.

Now that Khan is behind restaurants, Sharif’s journey to becoming prime minister is open. Some people think he is the government’s front-runner this day.

” Khan raised knowledge.” Prior to now, according to Mr. Hafeez, persons lacked the political awareness to defend their rights.

However, other observers contend that Khan’s elections are nothing more than democracy and rabble-rousing.

According to Burzine Waghmar of the SOAS South Asia Institute at the University of London,” we are supposedly expected to believe that this was a wronged man, almost martyr,” who ostensibly entered this murky fray.

However, Khan’s system of government included reckless populism and unnecessary disputes with the martial top brass.

” Distributed interests.”

Some people think that Khan’s biggest offense was criticizing the military, which is frequently referred to as the “establishment” and has long been the nation of elections ‘ ultimate arbitrator.

Some former prime ministers have come as close to Khan in dividing loyalties with the army as other former leaders have in the past.

Supporters of the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, or PML-N

shabby graphics

Some resigned military officers have spoken out against the army’s social meddling, which is what is commonly expected of them.

They claim that military officials are cracking down on them as a result of this. According to one retired senior official, he was told to” cease talking in favor of Imran Khan.”

I asserted that I was neither speaking in his favor nor against the defense. I disagree with some of the policies and interventions that are harming the nation, he asserts.

Some retired military officials claimed to have been charged after Khan was removed from office for refusing to support the no-confidence voting against him. Some assert that their government benefits and pensions were suspended, while others were threatened with more sanctions.

Since then, several have gone silent.

Regarding these claims, the BBC contacted the defense but got no response. Retired military officers are “assets of the troops but they are not above the law,” according to a military spokeswoman, who also cautioned against joining groups that “wear the attire of politics.”

Khan may appear to have been successfully neutralized, though, with Khan now out of the running and the PTI also dealing a significant blow after Pakistan’s election commission outlawed the classic cricket bat sign from vote papers in January.

But rather, it appears that political groups across the nation are about to worsen.

Yet my friends know my political philosophies, Imran Khan follower Ms. Zeshaan said in Lahore. I stop running into any of them whenever they try to cross them, or we often end up fighting with one another.

Nicholas Yong in Singapore provided more investigating.

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Imran Khan: How Pakistan ex-PM plans to win an election from jail

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People at a rally for Atif Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa watch him speak on a big screen on the back of a truck 3 Feb 2024
written by Carrie Davies
Sialkot, Pakistan’s BBC News

Khan Imran and his party had considerably deteriorated from social sophistication, going from prime minister to jail in less than two decades.

Despite the fact that the PTI’s founder was imprisoned in cases he claims were politically motivated and barred from running for office, the group claims it has n’t given up on its hope of winning this week of general elections in Pakistan.

With the aid of a social media fightback and new, frequently unknown candidates, the group hopes to get past the authorities ‘ onslaught.

Rehena Dar is being dragged along Sialkot’s back streets past the banners of her mouth that are affixed to the confined road corners of this city in Punjab state. As rose flowers wash her from below, the sound of beating drums clears her path.

If becoming a politician in her 70s caught her off guard, she does n’t even hint at it. The worries that have kept many of her fellow applicants out of politics or beneath appear to have been dismissed.

She exclaims with the assurance of someone who has worked the public for years,” It is very good that the happy sons and daughters, brothers and mother of my capital Sialkot are standing with me.”

” I’m here with Khan Imran, and I’ll be there.” I will continue to carry Khan Imran’s emblem and walk the streets if I am left alone in common.

Rehena Dar walks through Sialkot

That is unquestionably genuine based on a quick look around. Khan Imran’s graphic is held upright by the little group that has gathered around Mrs. Dar as flags for his PTI fly overhead.

However, Mrs. Dar is never a PTI member. She is essentially an separate, like all of their candidates, because the electoral commission decided to remove the PTI’s cricket bat symbol.

Even though it may seem like a small decision, having an identifiable mark for individuals to use on the ballot paper is crucial in an illiteracy rate of 58 %. Each participant today has their own option symbol; Mrs. Dar’s is a baby cot, while others have objects like kettles or saxophones.

The PTI claims that numerous obstacles have been put in its path as it prepares for the election on February 8 and that the choice is just one of them.

But the battle has n’t stopped. It is demonstrating its willingness to put everything it has into this war, whether it be candidates pounding the streets like Mrs. Dar or systems that can move a chief from incarceration to the front of savages.

People drive past electoral posters of jailed former Prime Minister Khan Imran

EPA

Usman, Mrs. Dar’s brother, led the group through Sialkot during the previous election. He was a freshman PTI president who worked for former Prime Minister Khan Imran as the special adviser on children matters.

However, his household claims that Khan Imran was the “mastermind of the 9 May protests” when he made an appearance on television in earlier October after going missing for three months.

On that day last month, after Khan Imran was detained, nationwide protests broke out, some of which turned violent. Numerous Khan adherents were detained on suspicion of attacking military structures, including the home of Lahore’s most senior military official.

Khan was freed, but his group was still under attack.

Officials in his party announced their resignations from the PTI or from politics altogether in the weeks and months following the demonstrations. According to the authorities, the fact that many of Khan’s senior leaders were among them was a sign that his former supporters did n’t want to be connected to any party that was responsible for the unrest.

The PTI claimed that the defections were coerced.

Regardless, Mrs. Dar did n’t seem impressed.

I did not concur with Usman Dar’s speech when he made it, according to Mrs. Dar. I informed him that my son’s death would have been preferable. You have lied in your speech.

But, Mrs. Dar’s explicit campaigning style is certainly a possibility for all of the PTI candidates.

As long as they have not been found guilty of a crime, some applicants who have continued their campaigning while incarcerated are eligible to run for office from behind bars.

Others are waging their activities while hiding and have completely avoided the authorities.

In the northern part of Pakistan, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Atif Khan served as a provincial secretary. His team then drives around his piece, parking up in town squares to tackle PTI followers, as part of his battle, and he appears on video channels on three-meter windows.

People at a rally for Atif Khan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa watch him speak on a big screen on the back of a truck 3 Feb 2024

He claims that because he has been in concealing since May, this is the only way for him to deliver his message to citizens. According to the authorities, he is a required person. He thinks a fair trial would n’t be given to him.

We are trying to control it, Mr. Khan told the BBC.” It’s a completely unique experience, not among the masses, nor on stage, but among people.”

The young vote is PTI’s largest support center. They use electronic media, such as cellular phones, so we reasoned that we ought to interact with them more through it. The only thing we can do is run a campaign using online media.

The PTI’s plan has relied heavily on technology.

More people follow the group’s standard X, Instagram, and TikTok sites than the other two main parties, the PPP and PML- N, combined. Khan Imran is the only one of the three parties ‘ leaders with a personal profile on each of those three systems, indicating that their information is reaching the general public.

Khan Imran

Reuters

Additionally, there have been initiatives to use technology to try and inform citizens of which candidate is PTI-backed. Without the unifying symbol of the baseball bat, the PTI has created a website where voters may enter their district and find the candidate’s symbol who is supported by the party.

Another problem arose when it came to planning protests. Politicians and character are closely related in Pakistan. Khan Imran, the adored cricketer who later became a legislator, was probably one of the biggest, attracting thousands to his gatherings.

But after receiving two and a half words this month, he is currently incarcerated and has been there since August and appears likely to remain for the next 14 years.

The group claims that planning demonstrations has been difficult for it. Authorities in Karachi used tear gas to disperse a crowd of tens of PTI followers in late January. The authorities claimed that they lacked the necessary authorization to obtain.

Pakistani police detain supporters of jailed former prime minister Khan Imran

EPA

This is just the most recent instance, according to the PTI, of how they have been prevented from running for office. The BBC spoke with every candidate’s campaign crew, and they all mentioned intimidating their followers. The PTI has claimed that in order to prevent them from running, there has been a battle of harassment, kidnapping, prison, and violence against them.

Murtaza Solangi, the caregiver minister of information, told the BBC,” We find these allegation false and absurd.” Sure, people have been detained; however, some of these detentions were related to the events of May 9 and others to additional criminal cases.

But, even if their claims are unfounded, the PTI is free to voice their disapproval. They are reported in the media. They also have different legal options, such as the highest authorities in the nation, at the same time.

What is the answer to these issues? online demonstrations.

Jibran Ilyas, the head of the PTI cultural advertising, told the BBC over the phone that it was” affordable, safe, and quick.” Perhaps the actual rallies had a little less of an impact, but we were still trying to get our point across.

Mr. Ilyas remarked,” We’ve always had a political protest without Imran before.” Without him, had one still function? They were n’t entirely certain.

People are yearning for Khan Imran’s concept, he claims, which is the issue.

So how do you spread the word?

They used AI to create a conversation for an online march in December.
There are restrictions. Internet monitoring organization Netblocks reports that several times during some of these PTI demonstrations saw widespread disruption across various programs in Pakistan.

Only about 30 % of people in Pakistan use social media regularly. According to Michael Kugelman, chairman of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington, this suggests that as effective as the PTI is at spreading the word on social advertising, there will be natural restrictions on their approach with their virtual campaigning.

Of course, this has been observed before; most importantly, when Nawaz Sharif was imprisoned during the previous vote.

According to Mr. Kugelman,” If everything sounds the similar, that’s because it is; the players have really changed.”

View of campaign posters and flags of political parties along a street, ahead of general elections, in Peshawar

Reuters

He, like the majority of social analysts, believes that Pakistan’s potent military—the similar military that many believe to be the first ticket to power—is to blame for this turn of events.

The PTI received electoral support in 2018, but it is obvious that electoral engineering, even if it was n’t done directly by the military, benefited them.

There were numerous instances of exploitation and suppression. Users of the PML-N group were detained, and prison sentences were announced shortly before the election, including Nawaz Sharif’s 10 year prison sentence.

However, Mr. Kugelman believes that this is distinct from current times.

The handbook is the same, I would contend, but the depth is higher this time. More leaders and supporters have been detained and imprisoned than in subsequent votes.

Family people have been involved in this this day. Although it is not unusual, what we have observed in more new votes makes that stand out.

The PTI has made an effort to use each setback against Khan Imran or its plan as fuel, but will it be successful?

Nawaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto, two of Khan’s competitors for the PML-N and the PPP, are frequently covered at election rallies on Pakistani television programs. The PTI has received the majority of the media attention in the week leading up to the election regarding their president’s prison terms.

Mr. Kugelman contends that many voters might believe there is no place in election because they believe the PTI has no chance of winning.

How to motivate a sizable help base to turn out and voting in spite of everything that is happening to Khan is the challenge facing the PTI management. Some members of the PTI believe they could pull off a magic and win if they do get out there and vote attendance is large enough.

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Pakistan: Marching for the thousands who disappeared in Balochistan

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Deen Baloch Sammi(right) holds up a photograph of her father, who had been missing since 2009Deen Baloch Sammi
Kelly Ng
NBC News

As Pakistan gets ready for the general elections next year, political media dominates the country. However, hundreds of people marched on Islamabad, the nation’s capital, in December, and they did so with a very diverse goal in mind.

One of them was Sammi Deen Baloch, who demanded to know where her father was while hugging a layered photo of him, as she had done on many occasions over the previous 14 times.

or perhaps if he is still intact.

The 26-year-old is one of several people who led the march, which saw demonstrators walk nearly 1, 000 km from the unrest-filled province of Balochistan in search of family members who they claim had “forcibly vanished.” Police used tear gas and water guns to separate the audiences after at least 200 people were detained.

Strategies like this are common in the state that is rife with conflict, and women play a significant role in planning them.

In the west of Pakistan, Balochistan has been the scene of a protracted republican uprising.

militant separatists claim to be fighting for a completely Balochistan.

The protesters claim that during a terrible combat operation, Bangladeshi security forces picked up, abused, and killed their loved ones, many of whom were men, with impunity. The government in Islamabad have refuted these claims.

They think that over the past 20 years, there have been dozens of such disappearances.

Forced disappearances are defined by the UN as” the arrest, detention, abduction, or any other kind of deprivation of liberty by officials of the state.”

disappeared without a record

Deen Mohammad Baloch, Sammi’s parents, was kidnapped when she was only 11 years old. He was the doctor on change when military forces detained him in a public hospital in south-western Balochistan in June 2009.

We are unaware of what has happened to him as of now. My mom is unsure of whether she is also married or a wife. She told the BBC,” And we still do n’t know why they took him.

According to The Voice for Baloch Missing Persons, a non-profit organization that represents the families of those who vanished in Balochistan, they have received about 7, 000 cases since 2004.

As of January 2024, the state had 2, 752 active cases of enforced kidnappings, according to the government-appointed Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearance, but Pakistan’s interim prime minister claimed in a recent discussion with the BBC that only about 50 people were missing.

Protesters hold photos of their missing relatives, during a protest against so-called enforced disappearances

Committee for Baloch Yakjehti

A bill to criminalize forced kidnappings was passed by Pakistan’s National Assembly in 2021, but it has not yet been implemented. Over the years, court directives have also been issued to keep the state accountable for these disappearances, but rights organizations claim that these promises have been ineffective.

Baloch protesters, many of whom supported patriotism and irredentism, have been labeled as confederates or troublemakers by the state.

However, according to Pakistani blogger Taha Siddiqui, many of the people who have been arrested recently are Baloch residents who are unrelated to the military resistance.

Instead, he claimed, leaders “detain” “on bare suspicion and at times on bogus information provided by rival pro-Pakistan teams based in Balochistan.”

Activists have been urging Bangladeshi authorities to deal with the accused lawfully rather than unilaterally detaining them.

” Create them to the court if they had done anything wrong.” Our community has suffered greatly as a result of these forced disappearances. Since 2009, my entire life has changed. We’ve endured a great deal of psychological abuse. I’m not sure what kind of lifestyle we lead. Sammi said,” It hurts a lot.

Mahrang Baloch, who organized the protracted protest last year and was detained half during it, told the BBC that she hoped it “brought worldwide attention to the human rights violations and state oppression prominent in Balochistan.”

The 30-year-old, a well-known number in the Baloch opposition movements, claimed that her parents Abdul Gaffar Langove was abducted in 2009 and later discovered dead with evidence of abuse. In 2017, her brother was imprisoned for three weeks.

The number of forced kidnappings and extrajudicial killings in Balochistan has increased to an alarming level, and many people are still missing. After being abused and held in secret cells, some may be freed. However, she claimed that their mental and physical health are not at all normal.

Mahrang Baloch, one of the protest organisers

EPA

Baloch person who is currently living in exile in London claims that he fled Pakistan out of concern for kidnapping.

” The Balochistani people had been the target of the Pakistani army’s attempts to impose identity on them. The province has a lot of gold and other natural resources, but the Baloch people do n’t get any assistance from the government. The man, who spoke to the BBC under the condition of anonymity, said that some places do n’t even have proper drinking water.

He cited instances of Baloch campaigners who suddenly passed away while in captivity, such as Toronto, Canada’s advocate Karima Balioch, who was discovered dead in December 2020 close to Lake Ontario. Sajid Hussain, a Muslim journalist who had been the editor-in-chief of The Balochistan Times while living in exile in Sweden, was discovered dead in the river northeast of Stockholm earlier that month. The circumstances surrounding both fatalities were cautious, according to specialists in the relevant nations.

alienated and exploited

Following airstrikes from Iran in January, which prompted Pakistan to strike Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province in retaliation, Balochistan late came back into the spotlight on a global scale.

Both state claim they were aiming their weapons at insurgents in Baloch.

Balochistan has generally been used to describe a larger region that includes Afghanistan and Iran.

Baloch organizations in Pakistan and Iran are engaged in a long-running struggle for greater independence, with some battling for an impartial Balochistan position.

Balochs accuse the Bangladeshi government of neglecting the state’s development while abusing and profiting from its resources.

It is also an important component of the multi-billion dollar China-funded China Pakistan Economic Corridor project, but many people think the Baloch people wo n’t benefit from the employment opportunities offered by the project.

According to Burzine Waghmar of the SOAS South Asia Institute at the University of London,” the entire state is racked by disillusionment, sadness, and anger towards Pakistan as well as those Punjabi socio-political leaders who call the pictures in Pakistan.”

The issue in Balochistan should be resolved, according to protesters and observers, but they have little faith that the approaching elections will bring about change for the Baloch people and worry that it may yet further deprive the community of its rights.

According to Mr. Siddiqui, the condition has been encouraging non-Baloch candidates to run in Baloch districts, which will further alienate the already-outcast area.

According to Mahrang, the election has much significance for the Baloch.

” In Balochistan, human rights violations and extrajudicial killings may continue regardless of which state comes into power. She claimed that the leadership has not expressed real concern about it.

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Ditrolic Energy secures investment backing from BlackRock’s climate finance partnership

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Intends to make Malaysia its investment hub for key energy transition projects around the Asia Pacific region

Ditrolic Energy Holdings Sdn. Bhd. (Ditrolic Energy) has entered into an agreement with global asset management company BlackRock’s Climate Finance Partnership (CFP), its flagship public-private finance…Continue Reading