G7 summit: Taiwan looms large as Japan prepares to host leaders

Soldiers at airbaseBBC/Jiro Akiba

At Japan’s Naha airbase in Okinawa, the roar of F-15 fighter jets dwarfs the sound of commercial planes that share the same runway.

Three jets take off one after the other, to start the day’s training – mostly scenarios involving combat and aircraft interception.

At least a couple of jets have gone on “real life scrambles” or emergency calls to intercept suspected Chinese aircraft, say those here.

These routine exercises have taken on a new sense of urgency, according to Lt Col Masatoshi Tanaka.

“We’re very nervous,” he says. “We’ve been facing airspace violations of Japanese territory every day. Chinese activities have expanded in number and quality. They involve UAVs [drones], bombers and reconnaissance planes. There are many active aircraft carriers in this area.”

Naha is part of the Okinawa island chain, which is on the frontline of any potential conflict between China and the self-ruled island of Taiwan. The territory, which Beijing claims and has vowed to take by force if necessary, has become one of the biggest flashpoints in the world, especially as tensions soar between the US and China.

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Lt Col Masatoshi Tanaka

BBC
We’re very nervous. Chinese activities have expanded in number and quality
Lt Col Masatoshi Tanaka

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As China becomes more assertive, Taiwan’s security has become a growing concern for Japan, which is hosting the G7 summit in Hiroshima this weekend. And with China expected to dominate the agenda at the summit, Japan’s role as a key player in building regional stability has only grown.

The war in Ukraine and an increasingly volatile Indo-Pacific has pushed Japan to a “crucial position in the alignment of powers,” according to Yoko Iwama, a professor of international relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.

“We are the linchpin of the network of American alliances and partnerships in the region and I think the Americans are aware of that,” she said.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has certainly been making moves to reflect that. In March, Japan normalised diplomatic ties with South Korea after years of terse silence in what has been hailed as a “new chapter”.

That same month, Mr Kishida met India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and then made a surprise visit to Ukraine and pledged $30m (£24m) in non-lethal military aid.

Under him, Japan has announced the biggest military build-up since World War Two, pledging to double defence spending by 2027 – which would give it the third largest defence budget in the world. This illustrates both Tokyo’s urgent need to show that it can defend itself, and also help its closest ally, the US.

Any defence scenario will involve the US, and Okinawa is home to the biggest concentration of US troops in Japan, but the country also needs to show that it can put up a fight. The hope is that this would be enough to deter Beijing and avoid a conflict in the region.

BBC map showing location of Okinawa and Ishigaki in Japan

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But Japan is close enough to feel the ripples of a conflict that it does not want, but could be pulled into.

When China’s military rehearsed “sealing off” Taiwan during three days of military drills in April, Japan’s defence ministry said a Chinese aircraft carrier was some 230km (145 miles) south of Miyako Island, also part of the Okinawa chain.

When a furious China fired missiles after former US house speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit last year, at least five landed less than 100km from the westernmost Japanese island of Yonaguni.

“Geographically speaking we’re very close to Taiwan and South East Asia, we feel a sense of crisis,” says Yoshitaka Nakayama, the mayor of Ishigaki. The island is about an hour’s flight from the Naha airbase and is a picturesque haven known for fishing and agriculture. Its white sands and crystal blue waters have long attracted holidaymakers and snorkelling fans.

Now, Ishigaki is also home to Japan’s Self-Defence Forces’ (SDF) newest military base. As farmers tend to their crops in the fields around it, soldiers man the gates and cranes and bulldozers move bits of earth as construction continues.

Soldiers behind gates at an airbase

BBC/ Jiro Akiba

Mr Nakayama says they need to protect themselves: “Chinese ships are patrolling very closely. The equipment we have in terms of missile launchers is for defending ourselves. It’s to protect us in case there are planes or ships that want to attack us. We’re not looking for war.”

Earlier this year nearly 600 troops moved here, including squads capable of launching land-to-ship and land-to-air missiles into the East China sea and beyond.

Ishigaki and the neighbouring chain of islands are in close proximity to two flashpoints. One is the uninhabited Senkaku Islands which Japan controls but China also claims under the name Diaoyu Islands. The other is Taiwan, which is 200km away.

And Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened fears of a potential Chinese attack. As the war rages on there, parallels have been drawn on this side of the world.

There are some similarities, according to Prof Iwama.

“The leader type: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping. But also the claim that a land that is controlled by someone else is yours,” she said. “People see this and are afraid it could happen here.”

She adds that watching large parts of Ukraine being bombed and shelled has brought up memories of World War Two. “You could relate to what was happening,” Prof Iwama says.

But those memories have also angered people in Ishigaki who fear that their home might once again be caught up in conflict. Okinawa, after all, was the site of a historic battle between the US and the Japanese armies.

Now, nearly eight decades later, a military base has renewed those fears, splitting a once close-knit community.

Setsuko Yamazato

BBC/Jiro Akiba

When 85-year-old Setsuko Yamazato, who lost four members of her family in WW2, heard that a military base was being built in Ishigaki, she gathered a “group of grandmas” to speak out against it.

“The first thing that came to my mind was ‘not again’,” she says.

Now, she and the others turn up outside the base every week to protest. With her cane in one hand and a banner saying “give our children a peaceful future” in the other, she chants, stopping at times to cough and take a breath.

“The SDF are coming to the island. They’re building a missile base here,” she chants. “Our island is protected by the God of Miroku, not by the military.”

As someone who experienced war in her early life, she says she does not want to witness another in her old age.

“I don’t want this island to become a battlefield,” she says.

“We’ve been nurtured by the nature and culture of this island. I don’t want that to be destroyed or stolen by war.”

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Indonesia’s military wants its lost powers back

JAKARTA – More than two decades ago, democratic reforms ended the Indonesian military’s dwifungsi (dual-function) role that had underpinned the 32-year rule of authoritarian leader President Suharto since the anti-communist bloodletting of the 1960s.

In doing so, the uniformed branch was effectively removed from the political equation, even if it has retained considerable influence through a nationwide territorial structure and a public image that is second to none.

Now, a proposed revision to the 2004 Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) Law that would dilute the president’s authority over the military and allow more officers to serve in the bureaucracy is causing waves in both military and civilian circles.

Even Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a prospective candidate for next year’s presidential elections, doesn’t see the need for tinkering with legislation he feels has been effective in preserving the principle of civilian supremacy.

Some retired generals are opposed to a TNI law at all, arguing that other nations rely not on legislation but on doctrine and protocols to keep their militaries in line. “Why,” asked one three-star retiree, “are they always trying to put us in a cage.”

Dwifungsi was first introduced during a period of martial law in 1957 and then expanded when Suharto took power a decade later to include “every effort and activity of the people in the fields of ideology, politics and economics and in the socio-cultural field.”

By 1980, serving military men held as many as 8,156 positions in all levels of government, from city mayors and provincial governors to ambassadors, state enterprise executives, jurists, legislators and Cabinet ministers.

That had been reduced to about 6,000 in 1995, but despite the reforms that followed Suharto’s downfall four years later, finding jobs for the boys became an increasingly difficult problem in an institution with shrinking duties.

It is unclear who is pushing the changes, but analysts point out that a proposed extension to the retirement age for some senior posts from 58 to 60 would allow TNI chief Admiral Yudo Margono to stay on beyond November when his short 11-month term expires.

Other analysts speculate that the overall move may be a reaction to what one calls “mission creep” by the well-funded national police and their ever-dominant role in the security framework which does not sit well with army generals. 

An army soldier checks the body temperature of a resident before collecting rice from an automated machine ATM rice as a government aid during the Covid-19 outbreak at a military district command in Jakarta, Indonesia on May 5, 2020. Photo: Anton Raharjo / Anadolu Agency via AFP

Political activists aren’t pleased at whatever is happening. “The revision of the TNI Law reinstates dual function, violates the Constitution and is betrayal of reform,” the Civil Society Coalition for Security Sector Reform said in a statement last week.

“Instead of promoting TNI as a professional state instrument for defense, the proposed changes will put its reform agenda into reverse,” it said. “We believe some of the changes pose a threat to democracy, a nation of laws, and the advancement of human rights in Indonesia.”

Activists are particularly alarmed about the plan to revoke the president’s prerogative to mobilize and deploy TNI forces, noting Article 10 of the Constitution stipulates that the head of state wields the highest level of authority over the army, navy and air force.

Another article in the 2002 National Defense Law underscores the president’s authority to mobilize the armed forces, despite the head of state not being part of the formal chain of command. He is directly responsible, however, for the police.

The coalition statement said it would be “dangerous” to put the mobilization and deployment of the armed forces outside the approval and control of the president.

“This will certainly restore TNI to the position it once held in the past, wherein it was empowered to act in the face of a threat to security, to undertake a military operation other than war without deferring to presidential decision.”

This, it said, “indisputably goes against the principle of civil supremacy that is fundamental to the concept of a democratic state with regard to maintaining democratic civil-military relations.

Critics are also worried about the new law’s proposed increase in the types of Military Operations Other Than War (OMSP) from 14 to 19, which they say indicates a desire to expand the role of the military beyond the defense sector.

They point out that some of the additions are in fields beyond military competence, including ani-narcotics measures, drug precursors and other addictive substances, and vague missions in support of national development.

A third major point of contention is the plan to increase to 18 the number of ministries where active officers can hold jobs as a way of relieving a logjam in the upper echelons of the 300,000-strong army that has so far defied solution.

Members of Indonesia's special forces Kopassus march during celebrations for the 72nd anniversary of the Indonesia military, in Cilegon, Banten province, October 5, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Beawiharta
Members of Indonesia’s special forces Kopassus march during celebrations for the 72nd anniversary of the Indonesia military, in Cilegon, Banten province, October 5, 2017. Photo: Twitter

Interestingly, the International Institute of Strategic Studies lists Indonesia as having a per capita ratio of one active serviceman per 1,000 population, one of the lowest in the world and on a par with East Timor and Cameroon.

Under the 2002 law, serving officers can currently hold positions in 10 different institutions, including the Defense Ministry, the Political Coordinating Ministry, the National Defense Institute, the National Search and Rescue Agency, the anti-narcotics and counter-terrorism agencies and the Supreme Court.

Although the numbers vary, military spokesmen have said in the past there are about 100 generals and more than 500 colonels who have no designated jobs, many of them so-called “expert staff” on the packed eighth floor of the Defense Ministry. 

Apart from an end to dwifungsi, the shortage of positions is put down to a 2005 extension to the retirement age from 55 to 58, fewer internal security threats since Aceh and East Timor, and a failure to retire officers if they don’t make the grade by a certain age.

When the issue surfaced four years ago, there were concerns that discontented colonels might either stray towards religious extremism or shift their loyalty to Prabowo, Widodo’s then-presidential rival and a former three-star general.

But shedding colonels and one-and-two-star generals ahead of retirement – and ending what is effectively a womb-to-tomb vocation – could only worsen morale.

Analysts believe a better way to alleviate pressure at the top may be to reduce the annual Indonesian Military Academy intake of 150-200 cadets and cut back recruitment of specialized junior officers from the country’s universities.

In 2019, as part of a review of the country’s 15 regional commands, Widodo authorized the upgrading of many of the Type B resort commands (korems) to Type A status, but that created only a handful of new positions for colonels and brigadier generals.

Back then, National Defense Institute governor Agus Widjojo described opening up the bureaucracy to more serving officers as a “one-dimensional” plan which ignored the side effects or failed to offer any long-term solution.

“It is not a way to solve the problem of officers who don’t have jobs,” said the retired three-star general who played a major role in getting the military out of politics and is currently the Indonesian ambassador to the Philippines. 

Both Western-educated, Widjojo and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, then chief of staff for socio-political affairs, initiated the first moves to depoliticize the military in 1999.  

Over the next two years, the police were separated from the armed forces and active-duty officers were ordered to leave their posts in the bureaucracy and either take early retirement or return to the military, which many did. 

But it wasn’t until 2004, just months before Yudhoyono became the country’s first directly elected president, that the remaining military and police appointees were finally compelled to quit Parliament.

The TNI’s pervasive territorial structure remained in place, although Yudhoyono did issue a decree placing all military businesses under the umbrella of the Defense Ministry, saying that command authority tended to destroy good corporate governance.

General Gatot Nurmantyo (L) shakes hands with then-outgoing military chief General Moeldoko during the swearing-in ceremony at the presidential palace in Jakarta on July 8, 2015. Photo: AFP / Adek Berry

In the years that followed, the military kept a generally low profile – until successive TNI commanders, first General Moeldoko, now Widodo’s chief of staff, and then General Gatot Nurmantyo, began seeking a wider domestic role for the military and openly talked about their own presidential ambitions.

Fearing it may represent the thin end of the wedge, pro-democracy activists have continued to question why military officers who either retire or voluntarily leave the service opt for a political career, sometimes unreasonably so.

Despite everything, however, the TNI has a far better public image than the national police – or for that matter any other institution. A Kompas survey last February gave it an 86.5% approval rating, with the once poll-topping Anti-Corruption Commission (24%), the Constitutional Court (52%), the police (50%) and Parliament (29%) trailing in its khaki wake.

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Zibo barbecue: Millions bring sudden fame to industrial Chinese city

Barbecue joints in ZiboGetty Images

Zibo, a sleepy industrial city of 4.7 million in eastern China, is not typically known as a tourist hot spot.

But when Zibo native Mr Zhang travelled home for his wedding last month, he was stunned by the “outrageous” deluge of tourists that he found.

Going back to the city had never been an issue before, said Mr Zhang, who did not give his full name. “But this time, I couldn’t promise my guests that I could either get high-speed train tickets for them, or guarantee a hotel room booking, let alone find a place available for a barbecue meal,” he told the BBC.

Zibo has been at the centre of a social media frenzy since China shed its Covid restrictions in January. Millions of domestic visitors have descended on the previously little-known city in Shandong province, lured by influencers and a chance to let off steam after crippling lockdowns.

But the biggest attraction is barbecue on the cheap, with skewers selling for as low as 2 yuan ($0.30) each.

Footage posted from Zibo shows a bustling atmosphere as crowds eat and drink their fill. A video on Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu shows revellers breaking into dance and song around their dining tables, while others wave light sticks around.

“There was an open-air karaoke session going on, everyone was passionately eating and singing their hearts out,” wrote the user who posted the video.

One of the nation’s favourite cuisines, especially in the north and west of China, barbecue typically involves small pieces of marinated meat and vegetable skewered and grilled over charcoal.

Locals in Zibo particularly enjoy rolling the grilled skewers in thin pancakes with scallions.

Some online influencers are now calling Zibo “China’s outdoor barbecue capital”. There are more than 1,270 barbecue joints in the city, according to the president of Zibo’s Barbecue Association.

Tourists picking out meat skewers at a barbecue joint in Zibo

Getty Images

“Zibo barbecue” has been a trending topic on Chinese social media platforms like Xiaohongshu and Weibo since early March.

That month, Zibo’s population more than doubled. On 29 April, Zibo Railway Station saw a record 87,000 train trips to and from the station, according to Chinese news website Caixin.

The city also saw one of the nation’s highest hotel room occupancy rates during the Golden Week holiday in the first week of May.

Domestic tourism in China rebounded above pre-pandemic levels during Golden Week, with 274 million trips made within the country. This is almost 20% higher than in 2019, according to China’s Ministry of Tourism.

Local authorities in Zibo have been quick to capitalise on the sudden influx of visitors. A barbecue zone that can accommodate 10,000 people, featuring live band performances, was built overnight.

Volunteers, including kindergarten children, have been dispatched to the railway station to offer advice and recommendations to tourists, while museums have extended their opening hours. Designated buses and trains bring tourists to and from the hottest barbecue spots.

The government has even threatened to punish profiteering hotels who raise prices by more than 50%.

Many say such moves have been a big draw for tourists.

One third-year university student described the barbecuing methods as delicious and unique. “The government also reacted swiftly and grabbed onto the trend. People there are down-to-earth, friendly to tourists, and prices and cheap. Sincerity is always the best killer move,” said the man, who declined to be identified.

A barbecue restaurant in Zibo is packed with diners as long queues of customers wait for vacant tables

Getty Images

Several theories have surfaced as to Zibo’s newfound popularity.

One harkens back to almost a year ago, when more than 10,000 university students from other cities were transported to Zibo for quarantine.

After they were released, authorities treated them to barbecue, and invited them to come back for a visit “during the warmth of spring when all the flowers bloom”. Some accepted the invitation, and hashtags about their trips started trending on social media platforms like Douyin, China’s domestic version of TikTok.

Zibo’s cheap prices are also appealing to students who have adopted the recent trend of “special forces” travel, which features short trips with packed itineraries, at minimal cost.

“We don’t have much money, but we have a lot of free time,” said the third-year university student who declined to be named. “After three years, people feel suffocated, so everyone is revenge-travelling.”

Social media influencers have spread the word too. In a widely liked Douyin video, SpecialWulala, a food vlogger with more than 15 million followers, travelled to Zibo in March after being tagged by people asking him to visit.

A month later, a popular influencer who specialises in exposing dishonest restaurants went to Zibo and said he found nothing underhand about any stalls.

Butnot everyone in the city has been able to cope with the influx of tourists.

A video widely shared on Weibo shows a restaurant owner on his knees, repeatedly bowing down and apologising to a customer who was not served as the restaurant was at full capacity. “Please forgive me,” he said.

A diner rolls a pancake with two skewers and some scallions at a barbecue restaurant

Getty Images

An employee of the restaurant said staff had been sleeping just four hours a day in order to fulfil customer demand, according to South China Morning Post.

On 26 April, officials from Zibo’s Culture and Tourism Bureau even published a letter advising people to avoid the city during the May Day holiday.

“The Zibo barbecue ‘fire’ has gone out of hand. We have been doing our best to accommodate the recent influx of tourists, but it has caused trouble and inconvenience to everyone,” they wrote.

Mr Zhang agrees having so many tourists is not sustainable, especially as barbecue is a summer event.

“In the long run, it is really up to the city’s capacity. It has less than five million people, so it’s hard to host a net inflow of 200,000 people.”

Still, most locals seem happy enough about the influx of visitors and shy away from hot spots to make space for outsiders, according to Mr Zhang, who says he is “proud” that his hometown has gained nationwide fame.

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Govt wants talks to continue

The government will continue its policy of negotiating for peace in the deep South despite the recent Barisan Revolusi Nasional Melayu-Patani (BRN) announcement that it would suspend peace talks until a new administration is formed.

Maj Gen Pramote Prom-in, a deputy commander of the 5th Army and the deputy leader of a government team negotiating peace in the region, said on Friday that Thailand would nevertheless continue with the peace dialogue as part of the Joint Comprehensive Plan Towards Peace (JCPP) agreed by all parties.

He said that the BRN had not informed the Malaysian facilitator of their decision despite previously agreeing that all such moves should be presented to the facilitator first. Thailand’s negotiating team is still waiting for an update from the Malaysian facilitator, Maj Gen Pramote added.

The JCPP is scheduled to proceed from July to the end of 2024, following the recent meeting between Thailand’s negotiating team and the BRN in February in Malaysia. Maj Gen Pramote said that the meeting had agreed to finalise the technical details by June. However, the move from the BRN might push back that time frame.

“The peace dialogue is included in the government’s strategy to solve the conflict in the deep South. The plan still has to be executed regardless of who is leading the government,” he said.

However, a roadside bomb went off in the Bannang Sata district of Yala yesterday, killing an army ranger and injuring three other ranger volunteers.

The bomb exploded on the Yala-Betong road in tambon Bannang Sata near Ban Taopoon School at around 10am when a patrol of army rangers and ranger volunteers walked past. The ranger killed in the blast was identified as Sgt Sommai Natsuebwong, while Natthaphol Upatha suffered a broken leg, Komin Sarathee sustained serious shrapnel wounds, and Porncharoen Yokphoonpholdee suffered head injuries.

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BJT sues Chuvit for B100m for ‘undermining party’

The Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) is suing former politician and whistleblower Chuvit Kamolvisit for allegedly damaging the reputation of its party candidates and is demanding 100 million baht in damages.

The party is also seeking a court injunction to bar the former massage parlour tycoon from its final election campaign rally today in Bangkok.

Lawyers Natchanikarn Ketkhamkhwa and Pichai Iem-on claim in the suit — authorised by BJT executive Supachai Jaisamut — that Mr Chuvit has undermined the popularity of the party in the run-up to Sunday’s general election.

In addition to barring him from the BJT rally at the Show DC Hall today, the party wants the court to order Mr Chuvit not to disrupt any party events from today through Sunday.

Mr Chuvit has declared war on the BJT’s cannabis policy and encouraged voters to join his crusade against allowing the recreational use of the plant.

The BJT insists it supports the medicinal use of cannabis but opposes its recreational use.

But the latter has been an unintended consequence of its push to remove the plant from the national list of controlled drugs before a law could be passed to clarify what is and is not allowed.

Mr Pichai said the party was suing Mr Chuvit because he had infringed on the rights of the party and further intimidated its members and supporters near Din Daeng police station in Bangkok on May 2. The amount of damages was based on the campaign budgets of party candidates in 400 constituencies nationwide, or 1.9 million baht per constituency MP, said the lawyer.

The court has accepted the suit for consideration and will begin witness examinations on July 3. A decision on the injunction was expected yesterday evening.

Mr Pichai said Mr Chuvit was free to hold press conferences or give media interviews as he had the right to do so under the framework of the law. But the party wanted him not to stage any moves against it near its rally venues in order to avoid any confrontation, said the lawyer.

A court in April granted a BJT request for a temporary injunction that barred Mr Chuvit from criticising its cannabis policy, a decision that concerned free-speech advocates. It was quickly overturned, with the Civil Court saying that the public had a right to hear about the benefits and potential risks of cannabis.

Mr Chuvit has also been an outspoken critic of the Chidchob family, the main power behind the BJT.

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Top US, China officials meet in Vienna for ‘candid’ talks

WASHINGTON: US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi met in Vienna this week, Washington and Beijing announced on Thursday (May 11), as the two powers seek to maintain communication amid soaring tensions, especially over Taiwan. The two held eight hours of talks stretching over WednesdayContinue Reading

Bhumjaithai files B100m suit against Chuvit

Party says whistleblower has hurt its chances, seeks injunction to bar him from final campaign rally

Chuvit Kamolvisit campaigns against the Bhumjaithai Party’s cannabis policy at the Ruamsap market on Asok Montri Road in Watthana district of Bangkok on April 19. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)
Chuvit Kamolvisit campaigns against the Bhumjaithai Party’s cannabis policy at the Ruamsap market on Asok Montri Road in Watthana district of Bangkok on April 19. (Photo: Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)

The Bhumjaithai Party has sued former politician and whistleblower Chuvit Kamolvisit for allegedly damaging party candidates nationwide and demanding 100 million in damages.

The party is also seeking a court injunction to bar the former massage parlour tycoon from its final election campaign rally on Friday in Bangkok.

Lawyers Natchanikarn Ketkhamkhwa and Pichai Iem-on claim in the suit, authorised by Bhumjaithai executive Supachai Jaisamut, that Mr Chuvit has undermined the popularity of the party in the run-up general election on Sunday.

In addition to barring him from its rally at the Show DC Hall on Friday, the party wants the court to order Mr Chuvit not to disrupt any party events from Friday through Sunday.

Mr Chuvit has declared war against the Bhumjaithai Party’s cannabis policy and encouraged voters to join his crusade against allowing recreational use of the plant.

Bhumjaithai has insisted that it supports medicinal use of cannabis and opposes recreational use. But the latter has been an unintended consequence of its push to remove the plant from the national list of controlled drugs before a law could be passed to clarify what is and isn’t allowed.

Mr Pichai said the party was suing Mr Chuvit because he had infringed on the rights of the party and intimidated its members and supporters near the Din Daeng police station in Bangkok on May 2. The amount of damages was based on the campaign budgets of party candidates in 400 constituencies nationwide, at 1.9 million baht per constituency, said the lawyer.

The court has accepted the suit for consideration and will begin witness examination on July 3. A decision on the injunction was expected later on Thursday.

Mr Pichai said Mr Chuvit was free to hold press conferences or give media interviews as he had the right to do under the framework of the law. But the party wanted him not to stage any moves against it near its rally venues in order to avoid confrontation, said the lawyer.

A court in April granted a Bhumjaithai request for a temporary injunction that barred Mr Chuvit from criticising its cannabis policy, a decision that concerned free-speech advocates. It was quickly overturned, with the Civil Court saying that the public had a right to hear about the benefits and potential risks of cannabis.

Mr Chuvit has also been an outspoken critic of the Chidchob family, the main power behind Bhumjaithai. He has also targeted suspended Transport Minister Saksayam Chidchob, whom he has accused of irregularities. He has insisted that he is acting alone and not pursuing anyone else’s political agenda.

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EC moves to ensure poll transparency

Admits fault in last week’s early voting

The Election Commission (EC) has set up a Cyber Threat Surveillance and Response Operations Centre to ensure transparency in the election, EC secretary-general Sawaeng Boonmee said yesterday.

The commission worked with the National Cyber Security Agency, Office of the Personal Data Protection Commission, Cyber Crime Investigation Bureau, the Bureau of Registration Administration and National Telecom Public Co Ltd in setting up the centre.

Mr Sawaeng said the EC accepted responsibility for errors in the advanced voting last Sunday and will prevent such mistakes occurring on Election Day this Sunday. “We will keep all ballots safe and there will be no ballot rigging,” said Mr Sawaeng.

Responding to a question from a Pheu Thai candidate about election observers, Mr Sawaeng said the EC encouraged all sectors to work with the EC in observing the election.

But if parties want to send their own observers, they have to inform the EC within 15 days of the poll under Section 55 of the Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives. They must also be responsible for their own expenses.

Seats for observers will be reserved at polling stations. If they do not inform the EC in advance, parties can have their own observers but they will be situated outside polling stations.

The EC used to help cover such expenses under rules set out by the Organic Act on Political Parties 1998 but that law was scrapped under the 2007 constitution.

The EC has told directors in every province to record events at polling stations from the start of voting at 8am until the result is announced. The EC expects unofficial results about 11pm.

EC deputy secretary-general Suranee Pontawee said people can access www.ectreport.com and initial results are expected around 7pm or two hours after polling stations close.

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Russia in 180-degree flip from West to East

On March 31, 2023, Russia published its new Foreign Policy Concept. Rapid growth in Asia has fuelled Russia’s drift toward the East and the pivot has now been integrated into official policy. This is a tectonic shift for Russia domestically but the material effects in Asia will be felt gradually.

Russia lists global regions in order of priority in the Foreign Policy Concept. The West has been relegated to penultimate priority before the Antarctic, which signals a 180-degree flip. Moscow asserts its desire for “peaceful coexistence” but the ball is in the West’s court.

Russia’s first strategic priority after former Soviet Union states is the Arctic region. It is only now bringing its plans for the North Sea Route out of the cold. Russia’s moves in the North Sea will have a direct effect on logistics from China, easing its geo-economic difficulties and allowing more efficient transit of goods via Southeast Asia.

The Arctic is also a confrontation point with circumpolar states, which will likely further delay thawing of relations with the West.

While seeking “peaceful coexistence”, Russia does not see a detente with the United States and other Western states in the foreseeable future. This sentiment is illustrated by high-ranking officials including Deputy Secretary of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev.

Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept lists China and India as its first and second priority relationships with Southeast Asia as its third. China’s importance is obvious, deep and enduring. 

So is India’s, considering the tight relationship between Moscow and New Delhi since India’s independence. The long history of cooperation in the military and economic spheres has created significant institutions of cooperation — for example, the joint missile program BrahMos requires deep mutual trust throughout the verticals of government.

Crowded out of global fora, Russia is reprioritizing its relations with regional organizations such as ASEAN going forward, juxtaposing them with Western-dominated groupings including the Quad, Chip4 and AUKUS. The strategy may resonate with Chinese policymakers and roughly half of Southeast Asian decision-makers.

The interest expressed towards joining the BRICS format by 19 states, mostly from the Global South, is evidence that Russia’s bet on non-global decision-making fora can be a winning strategy.

Russia’s foreign policy strategy places economics first. Russia is shifting its economic attention to Asia and will likely concentrate on the rapidly growing nations of Southeast Asia.

Russia–Asia links began to develop long before Russia’s official pivot to greater focus on Asia and prior to the hostilities between Russia and Europe. Links include the Power of Siberia pipelines, increases to the Trans-Siberian railway’s capacity and rejuvenation of the North–South Transport Corridor into Iran.

Gazprom’s Power of Siberia gas pipeline to China came online on December 2, 2019. Photo: Gazprom

Frequent references to infrastructure projects now pepper Moscow’s strategy. New market access initiatives in sectors where Russia has an advantage or is on par with the West should be expected. Some of these market initiatives are already visible — for example, India contracted Russia’s Transmashholding corporation in April 2023 to produce trains.

Russian energy, commodities and niche specialties like nuclear technology may be a boon to energy-poor but relatively cash-strapped Southeast Asian states. India becoming one of Russia’s major oil customers is a case in point.

While Russia has no state ideology, its many peoples have long been traditional and conservative. Russia has found itself the de facto defender of thought that is seen as reactionary in the West. As Western values evolve, Western countries find themselves distancing from the Global South.

Russia, in contrast, is moving closer to its southern counterparts and has now made “traditional spiritual and moral values” part of its foreign policy.

This is a significant shift after three decades without explicit value-led foreign policy. Russia will likely use the soft power of tradition to pave the way for market access through press and diplomatic campaigns. In Moscow’s eyes, Russia’s success in Africa shows that backing primary exports by bolstering traditionalist governments is a functional foreign policy model.

Since the first Far Eastern Economic Forum in 2015, Russia has been taking steps to increase capacity, interest and opportunities with Asia. Changes in education, social attitudes and business relationships have laid the groundwork for the pivot that Moscow has now put in writing.

Economies in Southeast Asia are growing and so are potential markets for Russian exports. Russia’s turn to the East is a long time coming and not the effect of conflict in Europe.

The lack of sanctions toward Russia from most Asian states is an advantage and Moscow’s strategy maintains that current negative perceptions toward Russia may yet be overturned to facilitate increased cooperation.

Russia’s foreign policy structure is compatible with China’s Global Civilizational Initiative — both argue for multipolarity in international relations, the importance of resisting hegemony and the need to respect different civilizations.

Compatibility between Russia and China may have a multiplier effect on multipolarity. The entente between Beijing and Moscow in Africa and the Middle East sets a precedent for Asia. Russian and Chinese resources and industry may yet prove mutually reinforcing in Asia.

Despite Moscow’s intentions, Russia’s presence in Asia has been low. But Russia has been laying the groundwork for the pivot for over a decade and Asia is becoming even more vital. Russia’s shift toward Asia may be gradual, taking place in a select range of sectors and focusing on a limited number of countries to start with — but the direction has been set.

Oleg Yanovsky is Lecturer in the Department of Political Theory at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

This article was originally published by East Asia Forum and is republished under a Creative Commons license.

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