We express our deep concern about the South China Sea’s dangerous and violent behaviour by the People’s Republic of China. The South China Sea’s militarization of restored capabilities and unlawful sea states are also preoccupring, the nations said in a speech following the mountain. A Chinese diplomat was summoned toContinue Reading
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Ukraine conflict risk and the silver hedge
The recent spike in gold prices is analyzed by David P. Goldman, who attributes it to a number of factors, including political risks, governmental challenges faced by major industrial nations, and central banks activities.
Russia is thinking about Ukraine’s upcoming corporate decisions.
James Davis discusses the Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian system and the increase of Soviet air strikes in the Avdeyevka and Bakhmut regions of Ukraine.
US to China: Quit working so hard
Scott Foster writes that Janet Yellen’s new criticisms of China’s export-driven growth design and her support for financial protectionionism are both echoes of Trumponomics.
But why would Grab’s competitiveness become a matter of public attention, not just the immediate issues of its shareholders? Yet if Grab was one of the pioneer rainbows out of Singapore and went public on Nasdaq in 2021, it extends beyond the realm of corporate success stories.
Given that Grab has become a key component of daily living in Southeast Asia, this change does not just involve healthier balance sheets. Its economic health immediately impacts a great ecosystem of motorists, merchants, consumers and employees. Using Grab’s marketing system, GrabAds, which processes over 10 million transactions normal across Southeast Asia, indicating a huge interest from retailers.
Success allows it to continue to invest in regional markets, create innovative solutions to regional problems, and support the digital equipment of the communities it serves. creating strong business concepts that would sustain regular jobs and companies in the face of economic uncertainty.
In some markets, Grab’s economic services have the potential to improve economic inclusion, offering available, user- friendly solutions to those who might often remain on the margins of the banking system.
However, this journey to success may be navigated with treatment. The advancement of fiscal sustainability should not be taken at the cost of the wider social and economic contributions that have helped Singapore become a tech head in Southeast Asia.
The current corporate decisions made by Grab show the inherent dangers and realities of financial innovation. They should not be taken while isolated examples, but rather as a reflection of the developing modern payments industry, which has regressed and frequently unchecked its expansion strategies.
As the online landscape continues to evolve, the real measure of Grab’s super- game ambitions will be its capacity to balance complex, usually competing, demands- profit and innovation with the responsibility of being a key player in the region’s digital economy.
Dr. Jonathan Chang is the CEO of Fintopia Indonesia, a banking dragon that specializes in online lending. He is also a teacher, open policy advisor and an honor- winning researcher.
In a less-than-ideal nuclear tone, the US is forced to use outdated nuclear ballistic missile boats and intercontinental ballistic missiles in the face of fierce energy rivalries and uncertainty.
This quarter, Breaking Defense reports , that the Pentagon, due to delays in deploying their descendants, is exploring approaches to prolong the lifetime of its ICBMs and of the channels that are called, for small, SSBNs. ( The , SS , denotes submarine, the , B, ballistic missile, while the N tells us the vessel is nuclear- powered. )
The US Department of Defense’s assistant secretary of defense for area policy, John Plumb, stated in a statement to Breaking Defense that while the agency is working on upgrading its atomic triad, it is considering ways to ensure that Minuteman III ICBMs and aging Ohio-class SSBNs stay in the mix for longer than originally anticipated.
Additionally, the release mentions that the DOD is reassessing the US Air Force’s Sentinel program , following a 37 % rise in software expenses, an flooded important enough to have qualifed as what is called in Pentagon- talk a Nunn McCurdy breach. It points out that the action required by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to enact the legislation’s terms in order to determine whether the program you continue and, if successful, to confirm its viability.
Breaking Defense says that the US Navy’s manufacturing has been plagued by , structural issues in its business center, resulting in significant 12- to- 16- quarter delays for the future Columbia- class SSBN, built by , General Dynamics , Electric Boat and , Huntington Ingalls Industries.
According to the report, the B-21 bomb from the US Air Force is the only nuclear modernization project to have closely followed the planned schedule. Despite the punctuality it notes that, due to inflation,  , Northrop Grumman , has incurred a monetary loss of$ 1 billion on the initial production, a damage that the organization is obligated to eat under the fixed- cost problems of its deal with the Air Force.
A US congressional commission on US nuclear posture, according to Breaking Defense, warned that the Pentagon’s plan for modernizing its nuclear arsenal is based on a” just in time” schedule, which involves eliminating outdated systems at the same time as new platforms.  ,
The commission recommended a number of measures to address capacity issues brought on by delays in modernization, according to the publication. Allocating funds for improvements to Ohio-class SSBNs is a proposed measure. Another is distributing the country’s aging nuclear platforms with existing nuclear warheads.
US ICBMs play a complex role in nuclear deterrence, but vulnerabilities that have sparked debates about their relevance in comparison to those from the air and sea have offended their use.  ,
In terms of the benefits, Asia Times reported in April 2023 that ICBMs serve as a “missile sponge” to draw incoming enemy missiles, thereby requiring an adversary engaged in a preemptive strike to use enough missiles to destroy widely dispersed nuclear silos.
ICBMs also offer a first-strike capability because almost all are on alert and can launch in a matter of seconds.  ,
Further, Steve Fetter and Kingston Reif note , in an October 2019 War on the Rocks article , that ICBMs act as a tripwire, forcing adversaries to attack the US mainland directly, triggering mutually assured destruction. According to Fetter and Reif, ICBMs serve as a buffer for the country’s ocean-based nuclear deterrent.
They point out weaknesses in the US ICBM arsenal, specifically that the missiles cannot survive a large-scale nuclear attack unless launched within the first 30 minutes of an incoming missile’s trajectory and impact, with the US “launch on attack” nuclear posture requiring a 10-minute response time.  ,
Additionally, they claim that a second strike can be delivered by US bombers and SSBNs, making an ICBM arsenal redundant. In contrast to bombers and SSBNs, Fetter and Reif contend that ICBMs do n’t offer any unique advantages. Indeed, they say, ICBMs are less flexible than bombers and SSBNs.  ,
Further, Toby Dalton and other authors in a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace paper from September 2022 contend that the choice between a nuclear retaliation and a non-nuclear attack on US ICBMs would be a problem. Dalton and others also point out that ICBMs from the US would have to overfly Russia to attack Chinese targets, increasing the chance of a two-front nuclear conflict.  ,  ,
SSBNs are regarded as the most effective nuclear deterrent, but the US’s long-term disarmament strategy, rising costs, and technological advancements may eventually make their relevance questionable.  ,
James Wirtz makes reference to the American commitment to maintaining an underwater nuclear deterrent due to its survivability, second-strike capability, and ability to hold targets in danger after a nuclear or conventional attack in a February 2020 article for the Australian National Security College.  ,
Wirtz points out that the Obama Administration’s pledge to end nuclear weapons as a long-term US objective results in a 40 % fewer ships per ship than the previous one, with only seven units for the next-generation US SSBNs, which would be developed in 2060.  ,
According to Wittz, support for the US SSBN program may be undermined by the high costs associated with deploying a few warheads on an expensive system and a trend toward nuclear disarmament, with the Columbia class possibly being the last US SSBN. He also makes note of the discussions that the US might have to make do with just 10 SSBNs from the Columbia class.  ,
Most tellingly, Wirtz mentions the possibility of technological “black swans” upending the relevance of SSBNs. By 2050, advancements in AI, sensor technology, and underwater communication will make the oceans transparent, which means that all submerged vessels will be able to be identified despite advancements in stealth technology, according to Asia Times in March 2023.  ,
China claims to have developed an ultra-sensitive submarine detector capable of detecting nearly imperceptible bubbles created by a nuclear submarine’s hull as a result of the magnetohydrodynamic effect, according to Asia Times in August 2023.
Additionally, according to Asia Times, China has developed a terahertz device that can detect vibrations made by low-frequency sound sources in the open sea, which was published in September 2023. Those waves reportedly can be used to identify submarines and determine their model.  ,
These problems with US land and sea-based nuclear arsenals may contribute to a bigger issue that could be exacerbated by potential nuclear proliferation and increased power competition.  ,
In an article this month, The Economist notes , that the world may be facing a period of nuclear uncertainty – specifically, that the US and its allies may face uncertainty driven by the Ukraine War and China’s expanding nuclear arsenal.  ,
The Trump and Biden administrations ‘ nuclear policies have sharp differences, according to The Economist, with the latter proposing a more robust nuclear posture with the SLCM-N program and the other trying to halt it because it is unneeded by a more restrained US nuclear posture.  ,
The publication notes that this contradiction may raise questions about the validity of the US nuclear umbrella and extended deterrence guarantees.
According to The Economist, uncertainty can result in such a situation.
The People’s Bank of China is giving a total new meaning to “monetary knowledge”. Asia’s biggest economy’s central bank is devising a program to provide as much as 500 billion yuan ( US$ 69 billion ) to support innovation in science and technology.
It’s a “relending” system, meaning that the , PBOC , may extend funds to choose institutions that lend , money to qualified sectors in need of financial support. The Communist Party’s presentation of the business on April 7 during US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s attend to Beijing demonstrates why Washington’s hope for significant reflationary stimulus seem implausible to materialize.
China’s 2024 plan combination is inspiring a lively debate among global economics. Some think that the PBOC should use yuan to prevent deflation and study from Japan’s errors from the 1990s. Others believe that fundamental reforms are much more essential to address China’s property crisis, stabilize the economy, and reduce the number of youth unemployment records.
However, President Xi Jinping’s team appears to be in favor of a second strategy: hyper-targeted liquidity infusions, efforts to change growth engines to tech-driven future industries that promote disruption and productivity, and a strategy that is specifically targeted at the areas where the PBOC’s liquidity might be most influential in boosting China’s upmarketness.
New hints from the group led by Governor , Pan , Gongsheng suggest the PBOC is assuming a key role in driving the supply- side renaissance that Xi and Premier Li Qiang pledged –  , And that this retooling effort, certainly aged- school blasts of stimulus, is the priority.
To start, the , fresh program , will channel one- year loans through 21 economic entities, including China Development Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China and various policy banks, state- owned business banks and combined- stock commercial banks. The loans are intended for small and medium-sized technology companies with a 1.75 % interest rate. The money may be re-allocated.
The drive aims to increase support for technology and technology-focused SMEs in both the growth stage and the early stages of development. It will prioritize businesses with the greatest potential to spur China’s transformation, as well as provide funding for a range of equipment renewal projects to promote natural initiatives across sectors.
The PBOC’s minutes from its first-quarter Monetary Policy Committee meeting next week included the hinge. Pan’s group emphasized the need to intensify efforts to implement structural reforms and develop new tools to improve performance in the real economy.
In order to boost demand and support distressed property developers, the meeting highlighted the need to update cover credit policies that are tailored to city-specific needs. In response to China’s economic opening, legislators urged officials to develop a new model for real estate development to lessen boom/bust processes and lessen challenges.
More significantly, officials referred to” mix- continuous adjustment”. That includes addressing longer-term structural issues, and how Pan’s PBOC addresses one of the most contentious topics in contemporary economic technology: whether central banks have a distinct role to play in promoting greater sustainability through increased innovation and productivity.
It’s a sign that Yellen’s hopes that China may accept Washington please- reflate- soon stance is a non- starter. On Saturday, after two days of meetings with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Yellen said the two had agreed to promote “balanced” economic growth amid US concerns about , overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry.
The effort, Yellen says,” will facilitate a discussion around macroeconomic imbalances, including their connection to overcapacity, and I intend to use the opportunity to advocate for a , level playing field , for American workers and firms”.
In Guangzhou on Friday, Yellen chided China for pursuing “unfair economic practices, including imposing , barriers to access , for foreign firms and taking coercive actions against American companies”. She expressed concern that mainland factories could produce more goods than the world’s economy could handle. Vice Premier  responded by saying that China wants to” create a favorable environment for businesses and deliver benefits to our two countries and our two peoples.”
Yellen made a point of shouting out Deng Xiaoping’s 1992 visit to manufacturing , and export powerhouse Guangzhou. Yellen hopes the Xi era will level the playing field for Western companies, marking a significant milestone in China’s transition to a market economy.
According to Yellen,” I firmly believe that this will not only harm these American businesses; it will also benefit China by promoting the improvement of the business climate in this country.” She added that many corporate CEOs worry about” the impacts of China’s shift away from a , market approach“.
Yet Yellen’s recent pitch has influenced China to increase its stimulus efforts significantly. And there’s a lost- in- time element to Washington’s latest pleadings.
Change a few numbers, a few dates, and a few names, and Yellen’s remarks will sound similar to those made by Washington in the middle to the late 1990s. It’s not difficult to imagine then-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin or his successor Lawrence Summers offering Tokyo officials the same counsel.
Japan has been trying to do this for 25 plus years with little success, as Yellen is advocating. The fiscal and monetary floodgates opening up year after year undoubtedly helped to boost the country’s gross domestic product. Tokyo’s only action was to address the signs of the weak demand that contributed to its multi-decade funk, but without bold supply-side reforms.
Japan currently accounts for roughly 260 % of GDP, which is the most of developed nations ‘ debt burden. The , Bank of Japan,  , meanwhile, has kept interest either near zero, or below, since 1999. Six years ago, the BOJ’s balance sheet even topped the size of its US$ 4.7 trillion economy, a first for a Group of Seven economy.
All this excess wealth covered the underlying economy’s deepening gaps. It took the onus off government after government to do the needful: cut red tape, internationalize labor markets, catalyze a startup boom, increase productivity and empower women. It lessened the need for corporate CEOs to experiment, change, and take risks.
When the Liberal Democratic Party won back control of the country in 2012, things got worse. With bold plans for a supply-side shakeup like Japan Inc. had never seen before, the LDP did so. Instead, the three governments have since allowed the BOJ to take the lead with more easing measures.
This includes Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government today. Look no further than the BOJ’s refusal to increase interest rates beyond 0.0%- 0.1 % on March 19. So tepid was the BOJ’s “rate hike” that day that the yen is 1.8 % weaker now.
No matter how much Yellen & Co. is receiving from China, Beijing must stay away from this formula for economic mediocrity.
International Monetary Fund head Kristalina Georgieva urged China to prioritize future-oriented industries over smokestacks during a trip to Beijing last month.
” Domestic consumption depends on income growth, which in turn relies on the productivity of capital and labor”, Georgieva explained. ” Reforms such as strengthening the , business environment , and ensuring a level playing field between private and state- owned enterprises will improve the allocation of capital. Higher labor productivity and higher incomes will be achieved when human capital is invested in: education, life-long training, and reskilling.
Such upgrades, Georgieva stressed, are “particularly important as China seeks to seize the opportunities of the AI ‘ big bang.’ Countries ‘ readiness for the artificial intelligence world is already a problem for today.
This has long been Xi’s plan. Efforts to champion high- tech industries, particularly cutting- edge manufacturing and , service sectors, are centerpieces of the party’s” Made in China 2025″ project.
The plan is to lead the global charge on semiconductors,  , biotechnology, aerospace, renewable energy, self- driving vehicles, artificial intelligence, green infrastructure, logistics and other areas.
It is “absolutely necessary to support the efforts to modernize the industrial system and accelerate the development of new productive forces,” according to Xi’s team’s statement at the National People’s Congress last month.
More recently, Xi’s party unveiled a list , of state- owned enterprises and conglomerates that will spearhead this fresh wave of , future- oriented sectors , that will raise Japan’s economic game. Priority areas include AI, neuroscience, nuclear fusion and quantum computing.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will be in charge of the business. According to Lin Xipeng, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, it has been “given a clear mandate that developing emerging and future industries is a crucial task.” ” While cultivating start- ups and units within their ecosystems, SOEs will also tap external investment and merger opportunities”.
Enhancing the quality of growth rather than just increasing the quantity has always been a top Xi priority. A major priority for moving there is increasing the percentage of GDP driven by technology. According to a recent Bloomberg Economics study, the high-tech sector’s contribution is projected to surpass that of real estate by 2026.
According to economists Chang Shu and Eric Zhu,” the high-tech sector has the potential to become a much more significant source of growth.” Tech is seen driving demand worth nearly 19 % of GDP by 2026, up from 14.3 % last year. Just over 20 % of GDP is driven by the property sector.
The PBOC’s lending program could help hasten the transition, particularly if Xi and Li ensure that this initial , 500 billion yuan to support science and technology is just the beginning.
According to an outgoing legislator and a supply in the South, important political events are trying to sway the new program, which allows for the election of 200 senators, with the goal of taking control of the Upper House with their own associates.
According to Senator Seree Suwanpanont, these big events have made it abundantly clear that they want to regain complete control over the new Senate while also gaining the support of regional governments through local elections, according to Senator Seree Suwanpanont.
He made the remarks on Friday in his capacity as the committee’s president on social development and open membership.
The recent Senate will serve for five years, ending on May 10. The forthcoming election is anticipated to take place in two weeks or in July. It will involve choosing individuals from 20 expert groups to fill the entire Senate, or 200 tickets.
According to Mr. Seree, this circumstance could cause the new Senate to be primarily made up of senators who are democratic supporters of these key House of Representatives events.
” In the end, instead of having perfect legislators, we may end up seeing politicians filling the Upper House. And they would be then colluding to]literally ] seize]parliamentary ] power and power over the country”, said the senator.
He urged the Election Commission to at the very least assume responsibility for educating the electorate about the new senatorial system in order to ensure justice for all individuals in the upcoming vote.
Lectures were being organized thus potential individuals could get to know each other in an effort to secure seats for specific individuals who are supported by these political events, according to Mr. Seree as one instance of how the election is being manipulated by these big parties.
In the new political system, senatorial candidates are required to vote among themselves to select the right candidates as new senators, he said, leading to the defeat of those independent candidates by candidates supported by these events.
Numerous civic and political organizations in the South are taking extra steps to help their candidates win the Senate election, according to a cause in Phatthalung state.
The source claimed that “many candidates are receiving total financial aid from their sponsors, covering everything from paying their candidacy registration fee to paying for hotel room and travel expenses.”
These social activities are being supported by the three major functions, particularly Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai and the Move Forward Party, said the same cause.
The parliament’s leader, Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, stated that the new system of indirect voting new senators will result in the establishment of checks and balances in congress.
The Ukraine conflict is frequently portrayed as enabling intercontinental partners to strengthen their defence cooperation and consolidation. But while this may be true in many ways, the fight has also exposed the different passions among those numerous partners.
Hidden fault lines in the current security architecture, which are mostly drawn on political and economic grounds, may very well result to a number of previously unbounded fissures that are starting to break out in the post-war time as Kiev’s ability to maintain the present line of contact becomes more weak by the day.
The relationship between the United States and its Western allies is the first significant rift. It is possible to create the argument—albeit in a somewhat sarcastic manner—that forcing Ukraine to preserve fighting instead of agreeing to confined concessions at the beginning of the war served to achieve effective returns for Washington.
The US power sector has been instantly benefited by the Russian oil and gas pipeline’s closure, which will make it the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2023, with Europe serving as the main destination.
Europe once more led the way as the top export destination ( 1. 8 million barrels per day, compared to 1.7 million for Asia and Oceania ), and this past year also set new records for US crude oil exports. This was all undergirded by one of the most significant inter- empire developments in the article- Cold War period: the damage and destruction of both Nord Stream pipelines.
The relative competitiveness of the US economy has increased as production costs have soared on the continent as a result of the rising price of energy and supply chain issues in Europe. Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse with a highly dependent economy and a market for manufactured goods, has precipitously fallen to become the worst-performing major developed nation in the world.
Unsurprisingly, since the start of the war, the German population has suffered from declining living standards. The International Monetary Fund predicts economic growth in the Eurozone of only .9 % in 2024, particularly measly when compared to 2.6 % predicted in Russia.
Farmers are still protesting in large parts of Europe as a result of the rise in stringent regulations passed under the umbrella of “environmental measures” as well as the flood of cheap agricultural imports from Ukraine.
When the EU decided that free trade with Kiev would start the war, local European populations suddenly saw their share of the market for agricultural goods being cut off by cheap Ukrainian alternatives. Most notably, Polish tractors continue to attempt blockades of the border with their war- torn neighbor, while further west in Brussels farmers hose down the bastions of EU bureaucracy with fresh manure.
Additionally, there have been political repercussions. The Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) party is growing in both popularity and parliamentary power, causing Berlin’s Eurocentric political elite to cling on to a Liberal pretzel. Officials are still talking about banning AfD outright, stamping out any genuine dissent in the name of inclusivity and openness.
And while the displacement of the Law and Order Party ( PiS ) in Poland was undoubtedly a cause for celebration among the champions of European consolidation, there is still evidence of lingering public discontent with the general direction of things.
PiS is actually just as bellicose if not more outright anti-Russian than Donald Tusk’s Europhile Civic Platform Party, despite the fact that the Western media frequently portrays AfD as being pro-Russia and calling for the EU establishment to stop supporting war with Moscow.
In Poland, it was determined that combating “illiberalism” was necessary, much like there was with AfD. When the Tusk administration came back to power, one of the first things they did was to act against political snatchers from PiS.
Of course, there has also been a sharp divergence between the interests of individual European nations. Hungary is frequently criticized in Central Europe for hesitant to support Ukraine without réserve.
At the end of 2023, when it presented the 50 billion euro aid package to Kiev, which was funded by the EU common budget, it was among the sights of Brussels and Berlin.
Budapest had also pushed back against the rubber stamp for Ukraine’s ascension to the EU over issues with the large Hungarian minority that is currently located within the borders of Ukraine.
The group’s efforts to completely alienate Russia have also resulted in sharp divergences between Czechia and Slovakia, one of which even went so far as to refuse a typical joint cabinet meeting with the latter following a meeting with Sergei Lavrov, the top diplomat from Russia.
Further to the southeast, the Bulgarian government has generally backed the EU’s position in Ukraine. And yet, in every round of parliamentary elections that have taken place since the start of the war ( there have been five ), the two most pro- Russian opposition parties have by far made the greatest gains.
Another round of snap elections are expected to take place this summer, which suggests even more potential gains. Bulgaria and Russia have significant cultural ties, but Sofia has been subjected to a number of additional economic challenges as a result of its almost entirely reliance on Moscow for its oil and gas needs.
Meanwhile, France under the leadership of Emmanuel Macron has presented itself as an apparent leader in European security. This is undoubtedly a good thing for the United States, which has a constantly overstretched defense posture.
The current war in Ukraine has also highlighted shortcomings in America’s defense system, particularly in terms of its capacity for industrial production, despite accounting for roughly one-third of all military expenditures worldwide.
The US needs to better concentrate its limited resources abroad, and it needs to focus on refocusing on the domestic dispute’s deteriorating domestic situation.
Most importantly, however, the war has highlighted a number of divergences in national security interests among the various transatlantic partners.
Any political and economic considerations are typically ruled out by the security issue. Although that may be true, it should be made clear that having a shared NATO membership does not necessarily mean having the same kind of strategic interests, threat assessments, or approaches to international relations in general.
This is intuitive, as the variable circumstances of geography, size, population and culture lead to unique considerations of national interest. When that national interest conflicts with those of other coalition members, there is the possibility of dissension.
The Baltic countries, which view Russia as a significant threat and support the most extreme measures in confronting Moscow, are the best illustration of this.
However, the bellicosity of a nation such as Estonia ( population of about 2 million, 104th ranked economy in the world ) or Latvia ( whose officials have hinted at the need to outright destroy Russia ) raises serious questions about whether the US ( or any other country ) will be able to muster the public support necessary to send its own citizens to fight and die for foreign borders – unless one distills the complex world of geopolitics down to political talking points and moral grandstanding.
But, especially in the US, as more and more people appear to be willing to do it, things seem to be getting worse. Despite official proclamations to the contrary, Western officials are undoubtedly aware that the likelihood of seriously altering the territorial outcome of the conflict in Ukraine’s favor is, at this point, essentially zero. It therefore makes sense for the US specifically to begin seeking peace in Ukraine.
The risk of escalation is currently outweighing any potential benefit, and the more the bloodshed drags on, the worse the outcome will be for Kiev, again in the most cynical sense.
That’s not to mention exposing vulnerabilities in Western weapons systems that could reduce the effectiveness of any potential conflict. Destroyed M1 Abrams Tanks and Patriot Missile systems neither project power abroad nor instill confidence at home.
Sadly, Washington’s willingness to negotiate a deal is still largely dependent on the same ideological biases as its European counterparts.
Those who disagree with a realist assessment of the situation in Europe may cite the ascension of Finland and Sweden to NATO as proof of a strong transatlantic order. However, this still leaves out any of the underlying problems raised above.
Leaders have relied on the consent of their own national populations to carry out their idealist agendas. That quiescence can no longer be counted on as the citizenries of both the US and individual European countries begin to push back against the increasingly disconnected policy positions of their respective governments.
The divide between the two fundamental political parties that are currently in power and those who are ruled is the one that is most likely to grow in the transatlantic order after the Ukrainian war’s eventual conclusion.
A restructured security structure in Europe that allows for greater regional leadership by nations like France and Germany and the potential for even smaller sub-coalitions would increase the effectiveness of working toward shared goals and the unification of interests.
In the future, this would result in greater stability both in Europe and the world. However, such a state of affairs would also inherently be viewed as a threat to the first principles of international politics upon which the current order was erected: the multilateral over the national, the ideal over the concrete.
However, there has been evidence of a growing opposition to that order both in the US and Europe. In many ways, the opposition was at a crossroads during the Ukraine war. As the smoke clears, a period of nationalist renaissance – or nationalist regression, depending on whom one is asking – may be waiting in the breach on both sides of the Atlantic.
At Hillsdale College, Dominick Sansone is a doctoral student of political philosophy. He previously completed a Fulbright grant in Bulgaria while pursuing an education at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies ( SAIS ).
His writings on US- Russia relations have been published at , The American Conservative,  , National Interest and the , American Mind, among others.
The second edition of Asia Times ‘ biweekly economics and geopolitics newsletter, Global Risk- Reward Monitor, published this study. Subscribe to this site.
On April 2 in the afternoon, gold traded for the first time at roughly US$ 4,300 per ounce. We present a novel way to analyze the price of metal by dividing it into:
On some occasions, we’ve already noted that gold lost interest in its long-term connection with TIPS yields in February 2022, namely, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
There is without a doubt a political risk premium involved. But aside from political risk, how significant is it, how has it changed, and what else is affecting gold?
Among other things, silver is an industrial steel. About 11 % of silver demand is absorbed by commercial applications.
Unsurprisingly, there is a strong, significant correlation between the cost of gold and other industrial metals ( the most obvious example is copper ).
The horizontal relationship between gold and copper usually changes, but it still shows up in the disperse graph below of post-date prices relationships.
Metal even behaves like a coin, most clearly like the Japanese yen.
Gold’s price increased as JPY depreciated against the US dollars, but there is a clear and consistent inverse relationship between the two.
Silver is primarily used as a hedge against the dollar, which is why the demand for gold is increased by the sudden dollar depreciation and the strengthening of alternative currencies. The connection between gold and the USD/USD is similar, though less regular.
All developed nations have problematic governmental policies. The rapid rise in its federal loan is not a relief for the United States.
Japan, whose federal loan reached 264 % of GDP in 2023, may help but continue to sell its debt, leaving the renminbi essentially poor.
Given the poor sector and mounting money constraints brought on by the Ukraine War, Germany’s Bundesbank is under stress to impose legal restrictions on how much debt can grow.
That is, all the world’s big created- market currencies have a lengthy- term architectural weakness. That indicates gold’s potential.
By regressing the gold rate in relation to all three of these factors, we can get a rough idea of the combined effects of TIPS provides, industrial metals, and dollar weakness on the silver value. By this measure, the political risk advanced – the remaining – is$ 525, or about 23 % of the silver price.
The remaining is what these three variables do not explain, and that is the best measure of the political risk premium we can come up with.
Notice that this residual increased considerably on two preceding occasions, once in 2011 during the Covid-19 illness and once more in 2011 during the same year’s European financial crisis.
From this, we can conclude that political risk is high and growing, or even higher than it is ever ever measured.
However, there are other causes for the price of gold, such as Japan’s and Europe’s lack of macroeconomic controls and strong business metal demand. Platinum is indicating a rise in danger, but not the end of the world.
Prior to the March 31 municipal elections, there was a conflict between the status quo and shift. In retrospect, it can be said that the event has caused a previously unheard of change in Greek politics. This is not just because the outcomes have resulted in operational shifts across 29 regions, but also because it represents a significant change in regional power relationships.
For the first time in over two decades, the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party ( CHP), surpassed Erdoğan’s conservative Justice and Development Party ( AKP ) on a national scale, capturing 37.77 % of the vote. The expansion of its effect beyond its traditional industrial heartlands to areas long considered hotbeds of the ruling AKP, what made its victory traditional.
Erdoan’s party remained strong in its traditional fortifications in northern Anatolia and continued to prosper in the southeast Asian provinces affected by the double quake in February 2023, most notably in Kahramanmaras and Gaziantep, despite losing some provinces in the area.
However, its electoral losses are tied to both the CHP’s method and the accomplishments of those political parties that backed Erdozan in the election of last year. However, the March 31 results highlight a substantial shift within the correct- conservative area, also.
The successes of the more extremist factions, represented by the Islamist Yeniden Refah Partisi ( YRP ) and the Nationalist Movement Party ( MHP), show discontent on both sides of Erdoğan’s electorate. People who think the AKP has taken an excessive liberal attitude on faith and patriotism have shifted to the YRP and MHP in this election.
Conversely, those who opted not to support the AKP for economic reasons have shifted to the Republican People’s Party ( CHP).
Exploiting these drifts within the right- conservative camp, for the first time the CHP made a breakthrough in municipalities such as Bursa ( northwest ), Afyon ( west ), and Adiyaman ( southwest ). Although this expansion may have been primarily due to the candidates ‘ poor financial performance and their poor choices, it also signaled a growing support base for the opposition, even in traditionally traditional areas.
This pattern also manifested itself in Istanbul’s districts. In addition to reelecting Mayor Ekrem Imamolu, the CHP also succeeded in winning elections in historically conservative areas like Üskudar ( Asian Side ) and Beyolu ( European Side ).
Additionally, these elections once more demonstrated how crucial the Kurdish voting is for shaping the outcome of votes. As evidenced by both its ballot discuss and the number of counties won compared to five years ago, the pro-Kurdish and left-wing group DEM increased its aid in the south of the nation, along the border with Syria and Iraq.
The goal of the elections was impacted by a number of factors. The opposition successfully highlighted the distinction between regional economic achievements and national economic issues as the economic situation came into focus. At the same time, in- party dynamics even played a part.
Turkey’s main opposition group, the CHP, responded to its followers ‘ hopes for change after several political costs under the command of Kemal Kilicdaroğlu. By appointing Özgür Özel as the new director and elevating the characteristics of personable politicians like Imamoğlu and Ankara’s Mansur Yavaş, who oppose Turkey’s shift toward monarchy, the group has made significant strides in appealing to citizens.
Turkey, known for its high electoral turnout, saw a slight decrease in voter participation, with rates falling from 84 % in 2019 to 78 % now, reaching the lowest level since 2004. This reduction mainly reflected the discontent among Erdoğan’s group supporters, many of whom expressed dissatisfaction with the country’s economic path. Promises of overall improvements went unfulfilled, fueling voting disillusionment, mainly from the more vulnerable populace segments, such as resigned and poor people.
With Erdoğan never being a strong candidate, AKP’s followers seemed to have made a difference between the head and the group. Despite his direct candidacy, Erdoan’s very personal campaign failed to pique his support, highlighting a need for social change and renewal. This might be a result of the national system’s introduction, which has more power in the hands of the president with every passing year.
This was clearly demonstrated in Turkey’s largely Kurdish southeast region, where the political campaign focused on opposing the exercise of appointing authorities officials in place of mayors who had won past municipal elections.
The regional elections in Turkey exemplify the traditional notion of” checks and balances” of political systems, which have less room at the administrative level, in a dynamic authoritarian system where the government’s power is almost unchecked. Erdoan has often argued that the ballot box helped him establish his authority and legitimacy, but this time he received an unanticipated answer.
The Greek voters, known for their sturdy civil society engagement, have become a vital pressure against the country’s drift toward autocratic rule. By taking action, they have helped make a more sensible political environment, reducing the supremacy of any one great.
It is not by chance that Istanbul’s Imamoğlu began his election speech by saying,” As we celebrate our victory, we send a message to the world: the reduction of politics is over”. This demonstrates that Turkey demonstrated a strong political endurance despite the lower turnout, which confirms the importance of the ballot for its residents and the need for its rulers to win actual popular support.
The CHP’s traditional success signals a transition in the social dynamics, with economic discontent, management registration and governance concerns driving a large swath of the electorate toward the opposition. The post-election process will undoubtedly not be straightforward despite these elections having produced an unprecedented result for the opposition in Turkey.
Erdoan and his party will rule Turkey until 2028. That is why, until that date, the opposition needs to focus on two main points:
The outcome of the election signals a crucial change and an increasing desire for change among its citizens that could change the country’s political trajectory as Turkey progresses. The question is whether the opposition, who is caught between having less political freedom and having more responsibilities, can successfully manage the support given by the electorate.
At the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Catholic University of Milan, Samuele Carlo Ayrton Abrami and Riccardo Gasco are both PhD candidates in institutions and policies.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
President George W Bush once described himself as “a uniter, not a divider.”
China’s leader, Xi Jinping is a uniter as well – though in a different sort of way.
On April 11, US President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr will meet in Washington, DC. This is the first such joint meeting.
And it’s Chinese pressure on both the Philippines’ and Japan’s maritime territory that is bringing everyone together. Some meetings are more important than others. And this one’s important.
The Philippines is fighting off aggressive Chinese encroachment on its maritime territory in the South China Sea. It isn’t the first time and last time it ended badly for the Philippines, in part because the country didn’t get effective backing from the US.
In 2012, the Chinese grabbed Scarborough Shoal, which had long been claimed by the Philippines.
The US did nothing when the Chinese broke their promise to then-Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell to withdraw its ships and instead remained to occupy Scarborough Shoal.
State Department lawyers presumably worked overtime to come up with excuses for why the mutual defense treaty didn’t apply. The Filipinos were dismayed.
Then, in 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of Philippine claims and largely demolished Beijing’s wide-reaching claims in the South China Sea. The Obama administration remained mostly mute – expecting the PRC would reciprocate the restraint.
It didn’t. Instead, it dismissed the ruling as a piece of “scrap paper.” Even worse, the Americans had encouraged the Philippines to bring the suit. The Americans now have two strikes on them as far as many Filipinos are concerned.
China is still on Scarborough Shoal. Now it is trying to make it difficult, if not impossible, for the Philippines to resupply its men who are stationed on a deliberately grounded Philippine Navy ship on the Second Thomas Shoal, a location that is, as determined by the Court of Arbitration, well inside Philippine waters.
Besides bumping and blocking, the Chinese have blasted Philippine ships with high-power water hoses – causing structural damage and serious injury to crewmen, some of whom are Philippine military personnel.
The Chinese – including a PLA Navy helicopter – are also interfering with Philippine ocean research efforts elsewhere in Philippine waters. The Filipinos gamely resist, but the Chinese are gradually tightening things up and anytime they want they can keep the Philippines from their own territory.
President Marcos has stuck his neck out since taking office two years ago. He’s shifted his country away from China and given new life to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows US military access to a number of facilities in the Philippines. Military exercises with the Americans and others have also ramped up, and the country has bought BrahMos anti-ship missiles from India.
The Americans have done joint naval and air patrols elsewhere in the South China Sea. But US ships and planes haven’t accompanied the Filipinos to where the Chinese get rough with Philippine ships or when the Philippines asserts its rights by, for example, removing China-installed barriers at the entrance to Scarborough Shoal.
Bottom line? What’s this upcoming meeting in Washington about? Philippine President Marcos is looking for help but are his and the Philippines’ hopes misplaced? They may find out sooner rather than later.
Beyond pushing the Filipinos around, Beijing has thrown down the gauntlet to the United States. Marcos must be praying their mutual defense treaty ally won’t leave the Philippines in the lurch as it did in 2012 and 2016.
So the stakes are high, as are Filipino expectations.
The Americans are talking a good game. “We stand with the Philippines and stand by our ironclad defense commitments, including under the mutual defense treaty,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Manila recently.
And following the most recent water-cannoning attack and blocking moves by China Coast Guard and maritime militia against Philippine Coast Guard and resupply boats at Second Thomas Shoal, the US State Department declared:
The United States stands with its ally the Philippines and condemns the dangerous actions by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against lawful Philippine maritime operations in the South China Sea on March 23.
The United States reaffirms that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea.
All good, but US spokespersons always seem at pains to stress that it is “armed” attacks that trigger American support. And people in Manila (and Beijing) notice this.
The Philippines might worry that the Americans are once again looking for a way out. They’ve heard empty pronouncements before – apparently made in hopes of not having to do anything.
And the Chinese might reckon that as long as they don’t shoot, the Americans won’t do much.
A Filipino friend noted the other day, “We can take only so much. People feel the Chinese push us to the point where Washington will have to step up and do more.”
Washington might or might not. It can take the “legal” escape route, or it can keep its promises.
You see, there’s precise wording of a treaty – but there’s also the spirit of a treaty. And that’s as important – at least when dealing with honest people.
The US-Philippine security treaty presumably did not intend to allow an enemy (the PRC) to use water cannons and a swarm of ships to occupy and seize Philippine territory. Otherwise, what’s the point of a treaty?
The Biden administration either gives the Philippines the help it needs and was promised at the very least under the spirit of the treaty – and runs the risk of a fight with China – or it accepts humiliation at the hands of the Chinese and retreats.
And it’s not just the Filipinos watching what Washington will do next. Everyone else in Asia (and beyond) will make up their own minds about US promises of protection – explicit or implicit. And if it fails, that will be strike three for the United States. It might as well go home at that point.
What about the Japanese? They know that the Chinese won’t stop at Second Thomas Shoal. There’s a whole series of Japanese islands on Beijing’s menu as well. They are quietly doing a lot for the Philippines – and they should keep it up. It would be nice if Japan Coast Guard ships helped out, but that’s unlikely.
By showing up to the meeting, Japan is letting the Philippines know it is involved and letting Washington (and Japan’s neighbors) know that this is a regional issue. And Tokyo may also be hinting that it expects the US military to pitch in when it needs help protecting Japanese maritime territory.
Indian External Affairs Minister, S Jaishankar was in Manila the other day and reiterated India’s support for the Philippines upholding its national sovereignty, in a statement clearly referring to the nation’s South China Sea dispute with China. That’s helpful.
But, ultimately, it’s the Americans who have the treaty with the Philippines and whose word is on the line.
As it happens, Kurt Campbell, who was bamboozled at the time of the Scarborough Shoal retreat, is the current deputy secretary of state. Jake Sullivan, the current national security advisor, was during that previous time State’s director of policy planning and then national security advisor to the vice president. And the then-vice president, Joseph Biden, is now the president.
This team has been here before. They should know what happens if you give Beijing maneuvering room – it drives right over international law and right over you. The question is: Will history repeat itself or have they learned from their mistakes? One wonders.
Grant Newsham is a retired US Marine Colonel and the author of When China Attacks.
This article was first published by India’s The Sunday Guardian and is republished with permission.