Raised on oil: Azerbaijan takes the driver’s seat in global climate talks but will ‘black gold’ legacy threaten its green transition?

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Even though that would improve Azerbaijan’s individual national emissions of greenhouse gases, it only raises the issue of polluters purchasing its gas exports. &nbsp,

Export emissions are generally not included in climate finance, leaving nations that buy and use power with a burden of pollution.

It is why there should be increased attention on the overall energy network, from producer to seller to buyer, much of which has a strong American footprint, said Ms Kate Watters, director of Crude Accountability, a animal rights and economic watchdog for the Persian Basin.

She has serious concerns about the allegations of Azerbaijan’s weak human rights history, lack of transparency on key issues and rooted levels of corruption, byproducts of a resource-heavy, generally state-controlled business.

She cited the significant investments made by companies like BP, Total, and ExxonMobil, Europe’s growing dependence on its energy exports, and the international green funding flowing to solar power projects that are truly substituting in place of the national gas that supplies Azerbaijan’s oil sector.” I think one of the most important things to understand is our responsibility as Western consumers of fossil fuels in what’s happening in Azerbaijan best then,” she said.

Are they simply exporting their carbon pollution to Europe if we examine the entire supply chain from beginning to end? Does that actually address the concerns about how to achieve a more green coming and less carbon emissions? No, it merely pushes the bits around”, she said.

According to the 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, published by Transparency International, Azerbaijan ranks 154th out of 180 locations with a score of 23 out of 100, making it one of the most crooked countries in the world.

In October, members of the German parliament highly condemned the” Azerbaijan regime’s historic home and extraterritorial repression of activists, journalists, opposition leaders, and people” and even labelled its “ongoing human rights abuses… incompatible with its hosting of the climate event”.

They requested that the EU-Azerbaijani strategic energy partnership be suspended.

The UN Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review Working Group also reviewed Azerbaijan’s human rights record for the fourth time in late 2023, and 319 recommendations were made.

The government agreed to adopt 185 of those, including measures related to civil and political rights, anti-corruption and national human rights legislation.

In order to “discredit the image of Azerbaijan and undermine its position,” President Ilham Aliyev has previously referred to allegations of corruption by his family and government as “insinuations or half truths.”

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China’s .4 trillion debt swap girds for Trump tariffs to come – Asia Times

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The US$ 1.4 trillion debt swap package announced by China today ( November 8 ) may have a more significant impact than what might seem.

The shift to mortgage regional authorities bill, approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, marks the first such effort since 2015 to increase the debt roof for communities.

It comes amid concerns about a new Donald Trump presidency that will restore world trade wars, inflationary pressures, and great youth unemployment.

The swap agreement, according to Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, “is a big policy decision taking into account international and domestic advancement environments, the need to maintain the stability of the financial and fiscal operations, and the actual development situation of nearby governments.”

Lan reckons the swap might save roughly 600 billion yuan ( US$ 84 billion ) in interest payments over five years, freeing additional resources to boost investment and consumption. As of the close of 2023, Lan estimates, China’s excellent hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan.

Some economists think Friday’s action is enough to revive assurance, as evidenced by a fall in stocks and the renminbi. Most people do n’t believe that this will be the final attempt to alter the story.

As Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée, sees it,” the local authorities debt swap program remains inadequate, but extra measures could inspire a recovery in personal investment and a broadening of local consumption”.

Some economists believe that there might still be room for more immediate action to increase home need. What the transfer system may do, though, is get Xi’s Communist Party some time to implement critically needed changes.

Everyone is aware that Team Xi needs to concentrate on strengthening money markets and repairing the property market. Beijing has act more quickly to lessen its hold on power over state-owned enterprises and create more room for startups to stifle the economy. Additionally, authorities had create stronger social safety nets to encourage families to invest more and keep less.

However, despite the desire for these improvements, international investors rarely grant Beijing the patience to carry them out. And efforts to fix, change or adapt China’s economic engines are sure to lower rise significantly. Markets, though, wo n’t hear of it.

Any hint of disappointing island progress causes Chinese stocks to be sold off by international investors. It encourages economists all over to describe the decline in global progress, trade flows, and commodity prices in frequently depressing, market-deflating conditions.

It results in Xi becoming the financial relative of a CEO struggling to produce quarterly earnings. This pattern fosters short-termism, which is one that contributes to Beijing’s gradual progress with China Inc.

Granted, Xi’s group does itself no privileges by continuing to reveal annual development goals. Setting subjective GDP goals year after year distorts incentives and causes policymakers to promote trigger over supply-side retooling.

With this most recent trigger explosion, Xi’s reform team may gain some reluctance from global markets. It’s ambitious enough to convince skeptical people that China is committed to permanently putting an end to recession.

Restoring trust “relies on fiscal and monetary policy help lifting minimum demand”, says Alex Muscatelli, scientist at Fitch Ratings. ” If present trends in the home market are exacerbated, price falls may be entrenched”.

Muscatelli adds that there is a chance of sustained value declines as a result of the “potential exacerbation of recent supply and demand styles coupled with demographic and debts overhang challenges.”

Avoiding that “exacerbation” means pairing monetary and fiscal stimulus with strong revamping moves to increase China’s dynamic activity.

Premier Li Qiang stated in a statement at the China International Import Expo that Beijing has “ample room for fiscal plan and financial policy,” adding that the country will meet the country’s 5 % goal this year. ” The Taiwanese government has the ability to push sustained financial improvement”, Li said.

However Trump’s re-election ups the ante on Beijing. Travel January 2025, when he’s sworn in, Trump will be on the time to hit 60 % levies on Asia’s biggest economy, as he vowed he would on the plan path.

” To mitigate rising US taxes on the market, we believe Beijing had probably scale up governmental stimulus”, says Robin Xing, a planner at Morgan Stanley. Xi may feel compelled to do something about them the more Trump raises trade tensions, according to Xing.

With a Trump success, ING Bank’s main China analyst Lynn Song adds that” the chances for a larger policy assistance package will increase fairly.”

Although China is more prepared to stifle global trade, Eurasia Group’s China practice’s managing director Rick Waters claims Beijing may struggle to stop the collateral damage.

According to Waters,” I believe the challenge is that China is still at a structural disadvantage in a trade war because they lack symmetry.” When the US imposes tariffs on them, they are unable to do so.

Song counters that” the first trade war was a game changer, many companies were caught off guard, and investors were left scrambling. Trump’s proposed tariffs have been in discussion for some time, so they should n’t surprise you much this time around.

Yet the magnitude of the trade tariffs to come could be unprecedented. Take the 100 % tariffs Trump has threatened on Mexican-made cars. How long do Toyota and Hyundai CEOs anticipate that Trump will extend their agreements to South Korea and Japan?

Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, says,” the world’s second-largest economy is already underperforming, and Beijing is feeling increasingly defensive about the tariff threats coming from hawks like former Trump trade czar Robert Lighthizer”.

The Chinese, Bremmer adds, “are going to be frantically trying to establish back channels to China-friendly Trump allies like Elon Musk, hoping they can facilitate a less confrontational relationship. Trump’s hawks will gain favors and demand an even more confrontational strategy, or both? Beijing will move cautiously and slowly in this environment”.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, notes that an “insufficient stimulus package, coming on the heels of Trump’s re-election” would backfire, meaning China “needs to find other sources of growth because trade will not make it”.

Another concern is how these and other Trump levies might conflict with Wells Fargo &amp, Co.’s strategy to lower interest rates, writes Brendan McKenna.

More tariffs could fan inflation, he says, adding that the Fed easing “less aggressively” than currently forecast could “act as a tailwind for the dollar”.

China is hardly recession-bound. Data on exports in October, for example, signaled a healthy acceleration — the biggest upshift in activity since mid-2022. In response to Trump’s tariffs, some analysts wonder if Beijing might devalue the yuan in retaliation.

” Beijing might look to devalue the yuan as they did in 2018-2019 to counter tariff effects and boost export competitiveness”, says Dilin Wu, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone.

It’s a difficult balancing act. China, after all, is facing multiple challenges from several angles. And if the yuan falls, the biggest of all might get worse. If the yuan drops significantly, property developers who have sizable offshore debt may find it more difficult to make payments.

China’s obsession with annual growth goals plays a major role in the weaker yuan argument. It’s become a particular distraction since the 2008-2009 Lehman Brothers crisis era.

Since then, China’s growth model has relied heavily on municipal leaders around the nation ordering up huge projects: six-lane highways, monorails, international airports, stadiums, conference and shopping centers, city hall complexes, corporate campus districts, five-star hotels, massive museums.

For local government leaders, making China’s annual numbers has dominated the economic incentive structure. A motivated local powerbroker can consistently turn in above-average GDP rates, which is the quickest way to capture Beijing’s attention.

When Xi rose to power in 2012, he pledged to let market forces play a “decisive” role in economic policymaking. Beijing has worked for the past five years to lessen risk in the financial system and reduce risks for property developers to demonstrate this. However, the GDP goal contradicts that priority.

The problem, argues Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific unit, is that” the economy is very investment heavy”.

The biggest headwinds China’s way is being slowed by the property crisis and falling global demand, according to the IMF. Yet, so is a growth model that encourages unproductive borrowing.

Beijing, Helbling says, must level the playing field for private businesses to compete with state-owned enterprises. To encourage consumption and boost investment in education and technology, it must create a strong social safety net. Pension reforms are also crucial to dealing with China’s aging population.

” If you do those reforms, there is an upside to growth”, Helbling concludes.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Commentary: In wake of US election, conditions are ripe for a more active ASEAN bloc

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CEMENTING ASEAN’S BARGAINING RESERVOIR

Although it is true that the US and China’s GDP differences will probably increase as they compete against the next big strength, smaller nations may have stronger bargaining positions. Places like Malaysia, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia and Botswana are rising upper-middle-income states with growing negotiation power and control.

Use financial strength, which is anchored in rationality and lodging, as ASEAN’s negotiations reservoir to demand for extended neutrality and resistance to picking sides.

This strategy, however, calls for a withdrawal from a silent non-alignment stance to one that is cautious, considered, and strategic neutrality. It is, therefore, appropriate for ASEAN to contemplate deepening economic inclusion, both internally and externally with another coalitions.

This might take a variety of forms, all of which are of economic nature and do n’t seek political integration like the EU model does. The most significant of these is the ASEAN Power Grid, which aims to integrate the power systems of member states and which has widely-accepted benefits ( decarbonisation, creating up to 9, 000 jobs annually ). Resolving the Laos-Thailand-Malaysia-Singapore pilot implementation grab is concern, as this would create regional-level planning skills. With this, discussions about grid system funding will also following, serving as a check for region-wide funding structures.

Another related meaningful financial integration is local infrastructure development, quite as highways and railways, that are supported by local funding mechanisms. Labour mobility might be a key component of ASEAN’s transformation from a dispersed company of various entities to a 650-million market in order for it to truly become a 650-million market. Instead of a complete free motion, which meets the stage of development of most part state, this could be focused on high-skilled skills.

On top of that, ASEAN could be used as a program for inter-regional teamwork with other big financial blocs, such as the BRICS, US, China, EU, MERCOSUR, African Union, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. ASEAN would be a leading advocate for business in the world, and this could lead to more important broad-based and/or regional free trade agreements or actions plans with investment areas.

Understandably, critics may say that ASEAN has not been an effective company specifically due to its non-interference approach, where member states may overlook local pressures and deal with business-as-usual. However, there are a few problems that favour traditional moves to combine.

One, configuration of leaders ‘ interests. Because nations compete to pass up or down the price ring, the leaders of the majority of member states place economic growth before other measures. Technology and renewable energy are also prominent topics on the leaders ‘ agenda of the member states. There is also a desire to prove themselves through a strong financial and investment effect, as the majority of the member states ‘ rulers were only appointed less than five years ago.

Next, trade protectionism is a worsening danger. Local economies typically form when exterior conditions are unbalanced, let alone in a trade-heavy area that has benefited from an open economy like ASEAN. In a peace, this openness to regional integration may not be as widely accepted.

Third, Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim‘s legality of chairman in 2025. Anwar is a standout for his distinguished political past and foreign diplomacy because he is the second ASEAN leader to create trade relations with China in 1974 and has a stake in the South China Sea conflict. Anwar also has the opportunity to adopt a legacy-building steer by prioritizing substantive integration that has n’t previously been achieved as 2025 approaches the halfway point of his prime ministership.

The ASEAN’s return narrative has demonstrated how effective it is and has a wider impact on the world today. In order for ASEAN to become like the numerous facets of a rock, each separating in various ways but unified in the same light, the next decade needs more thought and proactivity.

James Chai is the creator of Sang Kancil ( Penguin Random House ), as well as a political scientist and blogger.

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Protectionist moves like iPhone 16 ban could help Indonesia gain investments, but risk backfiring: Analysts

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Overcome LOCAL BUSINESSES ‘ UNDERLYING PROBLEMS, EXPERTS SAY

In recent years, Indonesia has seen a sharp decrease in its middle-class people from the effects of the COVID-19 crisis, which left some businesses and factories shuttered. &nbsp,

According to experts, Mr. Prabowo has promised to build 19 million jobs, and the best way to do that is by attracting more foreign investment to revive its lagging manufacturing industry. &nbsp,

According to experts, the best course of action is to press companies to participate by putting up tariffs and trade bans.

ByteDance reportedly started cutting about 450 work at its Indonesian e-commerce shoulder starting in June after combining its TikTok Shop and Tokopedia. The decline makes up about 9 per share of the leg people, Bloomberg reported.

” To bring purchase, policy persistence is vital. According to Mr. Faisal of CORE, unfair treatment should not be used against both domestic and foreign investors regardless of the government’s coverage. &nbsp,

By creating infrastructure like ships and streets, he said, Indonesia needs to train its workforce, eliminate bureaucracy, and lower the cost of shipping goods across the great island.

It needs to address the core issues that prevent local goods from competing with cheap imported products and safeguard Indonesia’s MSMEs, who make up 97 % of the country’s gross domestic product and use 97 percent of the workplace. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Bhima of CELIOS,” the issues ( faced by ) SME business actors in Indonesia are not only opposition with imported goods but also large lending rates, a relative skill gap for SME people, low quality control, and weak shipping prices.” &nbsp,

” Rather than carrying out baseless protectionism, the government should solve ( these ) fundamental problems”.

High tech costs and limited economic support, according to the Asian Development Bank, have created a challenge for Indonesia’s small business operators. &nbsp,

There are options for Indonesia, according to Dr. Siwage from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in adapting to the experiences of a global online marketplace where customers can purchase goods at competitive prices from overseas.

Dr. Siwage cited the success of native e-commerce systems Tokopedia and Bukalapak, both of which are now regarded as “unicorns” – start-ups valued at over US$ 1 billion. He said the nation could make a better environment for more nearby start-ups to develop. &nbsp,

“( Indonesia ) should design policies and incentives for foreign investors to collaborate with local investors”, he said, noting that Tokopedia’s merger with TikTok Shop could be a business model for other companies. &nbsp,

SOME CONSUMERS BURNT BY phone 16 Swindlers

Many people are currently looking for the products on the black market or abroad, which could result in millions of dollars in sales tax in Indonesia as a result of the restrictions on the phone 16 and Google Pixel telephones. &nbsp,

Indian economy ministry official Febri Hendri said that as of final quarter, 9, 000 phone 16 products have entered Indonesia. &nbsp,

The devices were purchased elsewhere, and they are currently being used solely by individuals. Mr. Febri stated that his office will work to ensure that the phones wo n’t be resold and will be sold on the Indonesian market. &nbsp,

The cheapest iPhone 16 is priced at about S$ 1, 299 ( US$ 994 ) in Singapore, according to Apple. If Indonesian customers want to buy the phone into their nation, they will have to pay an additional US$ 135 in import duties.

Soon after the restrictions on October 25, Indonesian e-commerce sites were flooded with customers claiming to be selling the new phone. &nbsp,

Mr. Febri claimed that the government had requested that these sites stop these offers, and many of them have accepted. &nbsp,

We advise consumers to avoid purchasing an iPhone 16 from illegal online retailers and marketplaces. We will act on any details regarding the sale and purchase of the phone 16,” Mr. Febri said in a statement on November 1. &nbsp,

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Raygun: Rachael Gunn retires from breaking after Olympic backlash

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Getty Images Rachael Gunn performing at the OlympicsGetty Images

Rachael Gunn, the reigning champion of Australia, has announced that she will stop competing because of the positive feedback she received at the Paris Olympics.

Gunn, who is known as B-girl Raygun, failed to appear on the score in all three of her August competition sessions with a program that included unusual moves like the water and a bunny fly.

The 37-year-old college professor’s moves catapulted her to international attention and scorn, spawned crime theories about her certification, and reignited condemnation of breaking’s addition in the Olympics.

Gunn had intended to continue competing, but she later said the story had been so “upsetting” that she had to change her mind.

She told the local radio station 2DayFM on Wednesday,” I just did n’t have any control over how people saw me or who I was.”

” I was going to stay competing, for certain, but that seems really hard for me to do today.

” I think the level of scrutiny that’s going to get it, and people will become filming it, and it will go electronically.”

After the Olympics, Gunn received a lot of aggressive information, and she was the issue of an anonymous complaint requesting an apology. It erroneously accused her and her husband of stifling another American skills at the cost of her choice.

Olympian officials vigorously defended her, but some in the breaking industry claimed that she made fun of the game.

It also rekindled debates over whether breaking, which debuted in Paris but is n’t on the 2028 Games in Los Angeles, should have ever been a part of the Olympics because of the genre’s creative side, which does n’t necessarily suit organized competition.

Gunn has recently claimed that the backlash for her, to which she once again alluded on Wednesday, made a personal statement.

” Dancing is so much joy, and it makes you feel good. I do n’t believe that people should be unhappy with their dancing.

” I also dance, and I also break. But, you know, that’s like in my living space with my companion”!

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‘Trump trade’ wins, Asia loses as risk factors surge – Asia Times

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It’s obvious Donald Trump’s big gain is a game-changer of epic sizes, from the harsh effect in Asian economies to the frantic press speculation about what lies ahead.

The declines in Chinese securities and the yuan only demonstrate how investors are quickly rearranging their strategies for addressing global financial risks and opportunities. The money surged on the news Trump scored a&nbsp, next term. US companies jumped, as did crypto prices. Provides on US Treasury securities shot higher, also.

The” Trump trade” that Asia has in mind is to take cover. A Trump 2.0 White House may certainly be more inward-looking, putting Asia’s export-oriented economy in harm’s way.

A large fire radius is present. Though aimed at China, Trump’s designed 60 % tariffs will destroy Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and another trade-driven markets. The aftermath on shipping flows could be unimaginable.

According to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, a planner at JPMorgan,” a significant increase in tariffs would reflect the most significant departure in policy from the latest administration and possibly the largest source of volatility.” The current macro environment is significantly different from what it was eight years ago, when the business cycle was in its mid-cycle, when the Fed did n’t care about inflation, and when pro-growth 1.0 policies were simpler to implement and had a greater impact on the bottom line.

Trump’s win over Kamala Harris is more of a “black swans” occasion for Asia than a “gray one.” Unlike the past, the latter is a repetitive but doubtful results. A “gray swan”, though, does have its own&nbsp, serious consequences, too.

Unexpected effects might be a way to strengthen Xi Jinping’s influence in China. Trump may effectively strengthen it by attacking Beijing with such an aggressiveness that he essentially strengthens by compulsion to integrate with an Eastern economy with China at its core and not an America led by an uneven, mercantilist president who blames Asia for many of his country’s failings.

For Asia, the best-case situation is that Trump’s tax risks are more a negotiating strategy than a real accompli. In fact, Goldman Sachs economists predict that Trump may only establish 20 % tariffs on China and resist the urge to impose blanket charges on other countries.

Trump may turn the other means and impose taxes he has previously threatened to impose. Trump has already stated that there will be 100 % taxes on Mexican car exports.

How much is manufacturers in Japan and Korea hope to avoid such restrictions, especially given that Tesla’s CEO has Trump’s ear? At the very least, electronic vehicle charges will be stacked confidently against non-US manufacturers.

The&nbsp, financial challenges &nbsp, may be even greater. One is that a penny march that has already irritated Asia will take a turn. For years, the economy’s “wasteball” impulses have shook international markets. It has lured enormous waves of global capital west, disadvantaging emerging-market markets in specific.

The difficulty, explains Tom Dunleavy, a companion at MV Capital, is that emerging markets “rely strongly on assets and have debts in money”. The majority of business and debt is also based in dollars, along with fuel. And he says that” the ratio of everything is going up.”

Regardless of the dubious reasoning behind it, the more packed a continued-dollar-strength business becomes as the result of the global fallout when depressed punters flee for their exits. And Trump was serve up some such situations.

Though Trump’s tariffs get the headlines, Asia is extremely worried about what his next president may mean for the Federal Reserve, the keeper of the world’s top supply money.

Trump put the techniques on the Fed during his 2017-2021 stay in the White House. Jerome Powell sabotaged his hand-picked Fed chair, and he went after him frequently. In 2019, Powell bowed to unrelenting force from&nbsp, Trump, who also threatened to fire him.

That’s how the world’s most powerful economic authority added liquidity to a flourishing business that did n’t need new substances. Trump’s Fed meddling set the stage for the post-Covid-19 price surge to come. It also tarnished the Fed’s credibility in global markets.

For Asia, Trump’s Fed policies are especially worrisome. The region’s central banks are armed with the largest stocks of US Treasury securities. Japan alone holds$ 1.1 trillion of US debt, China$ 770 billion.

Together, Asia’s largest holders of dollars own about$ 3 trillion worth. Trump 2.0 would put at risk vast amounts of Asian state wealth if his fiscal policies push Washington’s debt far above today’s US$ 35 trillion.

Not to mention the ways China might retaliate, leading to cycle of tit-for-tat trade curbs. Or might Beijing make a move to dump sizable amounts of Treasuries to punish the Trump 2.0 gang?

Or what if Trump’s designs on altering the Fed’s mandate come to pass? A key plank of the” Project 2025″ strategy that the Heritage Foundation devised for a&nbsp, second Trump term&nbsp, is watering down Fed independence.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Trump took shots at Powell and his fellow policymakers. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump said. Everybody talks about you like a god when you say,” Let’s say flip a coin,” and you show up to the office once a month.

Trump also contends that the White House has every right to compel the Fed to do its bidding.

Trump once remarked in August that the Federal Reserve had “kind of got it wrong” ( very interesting ). He went on to say that” I feel the president should have at least ]some ] say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better instinct than those who, in many cases, would be chairman of the Federal Reserve.

This could put the Fed’s economic role closer to that of the People’s Bank of China.

To be sure, the concept of central bank independence has been muddied. Take the&nbsp, Bank of Japan, which has held interest rates at or near zero for 25 years. What truly self-governing central bank would do that?

Yet the Fed is a different story. The dollar serves as the foundation of global finance and trade. Trump frequently discussed using a weaker dollar to gain a competitive advantage during his first term. Any policy change that undermines confidence in the US government and the dollar makes the world system shakier.

A weaker dollar could fan inflation. That, on top of Trump’s tariffs, could put the Fed in a very tough spot as Trump looks over Powell’s shoulder. Economists are frantically debating how all of this might turn out.

” On the US dollar, Trump wants to revitalize US manufacturing and exports”, says Will Denyer, an analyst at Gavekal Research. He may try to manipulate the dollar lower because he recognizes that the strength of the US dollar is an obstacle to these goals.

However, Denyer says, “he has few good options. Given how dependent the US government and companies are on foreign capital today, it is difficult to use capital controls to deter foreign inflows. And if Fed chair Jay Powell persists until the end of his term in May 2026, leaning on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates wo n’t be simple in the near future.

Trump might try to use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic in an effort to revalue their currencies, Denyer adds. However, it is doubtful whether multilateral or even broader economic policy changes will significantly weaken the US dollar in the absence of broader economic policy shifts.

This, Denyer concludes,” will leave Trump to hope that continued disinflation allows the Fed to cut rates, weakening the US dollar. However, there is a sizable probability that loose fiscal policy and sticky inflation will keep&nbsp, monetary policy&nbsp, relatively tight, supporting the US dollar and confounding Trump’s aim of weakening the currency”.

Another irrational possibility: whether Trump will continue to flirt with defaulting on US debt. He declared to CNBC in 2016 that he would “know that you could make a deal” if the economy crashed. And if the economy was good, it was good. So, therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

Trump considered canceling Beijing’s debt while serving as president for the first time in light of trade tensions. With the US national debt twice the size of Chinese gross domestic product, it’s easy to see how that would make the 2008″ Lehman shock” seem quaint by comparison.

Asian assets are also weighed by the threat of geopolitical conflict. One example is what a Trump 2.0 foreign policy team might have for Taiwan.

Trump’s return is music to Vladimir Putin’s ears, giving the Russian leader greater scope to commandeer&nbsp, Ukraine&nbsp, once and for all. Compared with US President Joe Biden’s administration, Trump also seems less likely to come to Taipei’s defense if China moved against the island of&nbsp, 23 million people.

Asia investors will also keep their bets guessing about the direction US policies in the Middle East will take. Trump, for instance, might give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more freedom to fight the conflict in Gaza. He’s also likely to tighten sanctions on Iran, adding fresh uncertainty to oil supply dynamics and, by extension, energy prices.

” Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous”, says commodity researcher Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby at Goldman Sachs.

As Trump 2.0 assumes power, other issues will concern Asian governments. Japan and Korea are concerned that Trump’s “grand bargain” trade agreement with Xi leaves other top Asian nations staring in from the distance.

All that’s clear, though, is that there will be fewer guardrails or inhibitions as Trump seeks to “make America great again” at Asia’s expense.

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Indonesia-Russia naval exercises more surface than substance – Asia Times

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On Monday ( November 4), Indonesia held its first-ever diplomatic naval exercise with Russia. Three Russian ships and a support vessel were present, and the drills were scheduled to last from November 4 to November 8.

The activities, known as Orruda 2024, have been interpreted in some quarters as Indonesia’s new leader, Prabowo Subianto, tilting the Southeast Asian nation aside geopolitically from the US and its supporters and toward Russia and apparently China.

However, there is a general discussion in Jakarta regarding the exercise, with some claiming that it is simply a response to Russia’s growing security ties to the US and its supporters.

To be sure, there is no denying that President Prabowo, who assumed department on October 20, is strong on cultivating warm relations with Russia, a long-time company of Indonesian hands.

In July, when Prabowo was president-elect but also serving as defence minister, he traveled to Moscow and met with President Vladimir Putin. Prabowo praised Russia as a “great buddy” of Indonesia during the journey and expressed political optimism that ties between the two countries would continue to improve.

On October 25, Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono announced Indonesia’s desire to join BRICS while attending the expanding bloc’s summit in Kazan, Russia – a clear break from the past Joko Widodo administration’s non-committal position.

There was no denying that Sugiono received the best education because she is a close friend of Prabowo. So, Prabowo’s first big foreign policy walk as national head was Russia-friendly.

Importantly, Indonesia and China have begun debate about the possibility of conducting diplomatic joint military exercises, which could be groundbreaking since they have not been held for nearly a decade.

Indonesia suspended them in 2015 as a result of the two countries ‘ ongoing conflict over the North Natuna Sea, which are Indonesian territorial waters that fall under China’s nine-dash range state to almost all of the South China Sea. These preliminary actions may irritate Americans and allies, but in their wider context they are less serious.

For one, despite the standard branding, this year’s drills are not the first day Indonesia has held a naval exercise with Russia. The international Komodo Exercise, held four times since 2014 and most just in 2023, included Russia from the outset alongside the US, Japan and China, among others. Holding a smaller bilateral training with Russia may be a significant growth, but it’s rarely a step modify.

However, while serving protection minister, Prabowo oversaw the continuous expansion of Indonesia’s protection ties with the US and its allies. In August, Indonesia signed a new security pact with Australia, hailed by the latter as the most important safety contract in the two neighbors ‘ story, with Prabowo shepherding the agreement on Indonesia’s side.

Super Garuda Shield, an annual martial training involving Indonesia and the US plus aligned capabilities, grew in size and difficulty under Prabowo’s view. This time, the practice ran for a fortnight from August 26 to September 26 and involved some 5, 500 forces from Indonesia, the US, Japan, Singapore, the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Brazil, Brunei, India, South Korea, New Zealand and Thailand.

By contrast, the Orruda 2024 naval exercise being conducted with Russia right now is obviously smaller in size, lasting only four times and involving only a few hundred soldiers overall.

As one expert, who preferred to remain unnamed, frankly put it:” It’s kind of a pitiful practice if you compare it with Garuda Shield. This is similar to the shift you give a man after consuming a delicious meal at Garuda Shield.

Fauzan Malufti, a security analyst and part of JATOSINT, which provides open-source knowledge on Indonesia’s defense, was less contemptuous.

” Given the number of warships and the exercise materials, I do n’t think it’s merely symbolic”, he said. But, Malufti agreed that if compared to activities with American forces, Orruda was evidently much smaller and less complicated.

Zooming out, Prabowo’s willingness to amuse hot ties with Russia and possibly boost military assistance can be viewed as part of Indonesia’s classic choice for non-bloc positioning.

In terms of security, reaching out to Russia and China might serve as a signal that Indonesia’s close ties to the US do not indicate that it has abandoned its space for political maneuvering.

According to Fitriani Bintang Timur, a senior researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute,” I privately think Prabowo would like to emulate India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who positioned India as a member of the Quad while also meeting with Putin.”

She cited Prabowo’s unanticipated request for a peace deal with Ukraine at the Shangri-La summit in Singapore in 2023 as evidence of his desire to establish Indonesia as a dominant middle-class on the global stage.

However, Prabowo’s well-known preference for foreign plan, his desire to cut an important figure on the global stage, and his unpredictability may be what are driving a foreign policy that is attention-grabbing but does not actually signify a course change.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s deputy executive producer, Shafiah Muhibat, acknowledged that some members of Indonesia’s foreign policy community were surprised by moves like joining the BRICS but unsure of their true significance.

Jokowi is known for his ability to attract attention, but he also enjoys being on the international stage, she said. Whether these may add up to a clear and specific proper perspective, though, is still uncertain, Shafiah said, suggesting the situation may be clearer over the next year.

For the time being, this year’s marine practice seems more important for Russia than Indonesia, according to Radityo Dharmaputra, a teacher and specialist in Indonesia-Russia connections at Airlangga University.

Russia can demonstrate that, despite American attempts to isolate it diplomatically, it still has strong diplomatic relations with an important middle power, he said.

The exercises have the potential to grow even further. Russia, I believe, also understands that Prabowo wants a global stage to showcase his abilities. If Russia gives that, and the West overly criticizes Prabowo, he will lean to Russia more”, Dharmaputra predicted.

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Who’s afraid of the big bad bond market? – Asia Times

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When interest levels were being cut in the US, a funny thing happened: they ended up being higher.

The US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point in September, &nbsp, raising expectations&nbsp, that another levels may soon start coming along. Otherwise, the US Treasury’s two-year and 10-year information and the common 30-year lease rate have all risen by half a percentage point or more.

What happened? The Fed has limited authority over interest rates, which is the quick reply. The bond market, when well, has a lot to say about rates—the longer-term charges in particular, although no entirely.

The relationship economy’s” say” is a simple representation of supply and demand. The key is to comprehend that bond yields and prices move in the opposite direction: one moves off and the other moves down.

The 30-year mortgage interest rate is one of several other bond market-based rates that was coming down before the Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark rate on Sept. 18 but went up after it. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis chart)
The 30-year loan attention rate is one of several different bond market-based levels that were decreasing before the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate on September 18 but increased after it. Graph: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

For example: If I buy for US$ 100 a bond that yields 5 %, I will receive$ 5 a year in interest. Let’s say I’m selling the bond to you and you only pay$ 90 because the demand is subdued and the supply is strong. You currently receive$ 5 in interest per year, but because you paid$ 90, your yield is 5.55 %. ( If, instead, you had to pay$ 105 for the bond, your yield would be 4.76 %. )

What’s happening, therefore, is that while the Fed is now trying to push prices down, ties are selling off and that’s driving costs higher. The question is: Why is the connection business negative?

There are at least two possible solutions.

Some experts blame what they’re calling the” Trump trade”. Although the surveys are a tossup, the industry think Trump is going to win the presidency. They also believe that a second Trump term will aggravate the trend toward higher inflation and worsen the already bad national debt.

Understand that the markets do n’t have a political agenda. Bond investors may be mistaken about the effects of a Trump success, as well as the success itself, but their predictions do n’t represent anti-Trump discrimination.

Their purchasing and selling of securities is based on what they think will happen in terms of prices. Lenders apprehension about being reimbursed in undervalued currency. Both candidates have pledged to provide tax breaks and freebies that will help with inflation, but academics believe Trump has already made those promises.

The business serves as the other justification for the ties selling off. The Fed’s September 18 price cut reflected an market that was scarcely creating 100, 000 new tasks a month. Some economists were predicting another half-point split at the Fed’s November meet.

But in early October the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 254, 000 increase in work in September, well above the 12-month regular, and Census revised some of the earlier times forward. Meanwhile, the inflation rate in September continued its downward march toward the Fed’s 2 % target but did n’t drop as much as analysts expected.

With those studies, a half-point November split by the Fed looked less good. One Fed official also expressed his willingness to avoid a split in November.

The November 1 report that only 12, 000 additional jobs were reported for October seems likely to be dismissed as being distorted by significant storms and the Boeing attack.

Financial businesses are forward-looking, they anticipate activities. In anticipation of the Fed’s September cut, owners had bought securities, which drove bond yields over. In light of the studies showing a stronger market and worse-than-expected prices in September, owners ‘ anticipation changed. If the Fed was n’t going to lower rates as much or as fast as expected, markets had to adjust.

It’s possible, of course, that the true answer is some mix of the Trump deal and expectations of future Fed price movements. The expectations solution is more normal. You’d have to wonder why then if shareholders were selling bonds out of concern for higher imbalances and prices. Bond traders have ignored decades of multi-trillion-dollar national budget deficits.

If those shortfalls are then causing bond traders to feel uneasy, it would represent a return of those who were known as the “bond vigilantes.” Bond investors ‘ concerns about federal spending three decades ago led to 10-year note yields falling from 5.2 % annually to 8 %.

Years later, the administration also managed to generate a budget surplus by working with Congress on plans to control spending. That it had to be pushed by the markets to do so caused a Clinton consultant, James Carville, to say – reportedly – that, if he could be reincarnated as anyone, it would be the relationship industry so he could scare everyone.

For farmers, ranchers and another business loans, the big question is where interest rates are going from below. The most probable course for them to take is, in my opinion, to fall, perhaps more quietly than analysts had predicted in September.

The US economy is robust, according to The Economist, and inflation is essentially under command. The present level of interest rates is much higher than current economic situations warrant, and if the economy continues to grow at this rate, which is very unlikely and if a rebound in inflation is possible but not specially unlikely.

If I’m correct about the economy, the Fed will continue to cut interest rates, perhaps just quarter-point cuts, and perhaps not at every meeting, but it will be closer to 3 % than 5 % over the long run.

The industry will eventually fall in line as the Fed moves in that direction, particularly if whoever wins the presidency is prevented from carrying out their most inflationary campaign promises by Congress, the relationship market, or a return to common sense.

Urban Lehner, a former Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor, is DTN/The Progressive Farmer’s editor emeritus. &nbsp, This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, actually published by DTN on November 1, and now&nbsp, republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved. &nbsp, &nbsp, Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on X @urbanize

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How will the war in Lebanon end? – Asia Times

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How else will the war end, begging the question,” How long will it last if Hezbollah and Israel do n’t reach a ceasefire?”

Earlier in the week, the Israeli army had declared its mission accomplished and removed protective barriers it had set up against Hezbollah’s Anti-Tank Guided Missiles ( ATGM ) in Israel’s northernmost towns, near the Lebanese border.

The techniques signaled Israel’s assurance that its strategy to mitigate the Iran-backed army’s threat was going as planned. But Hezbollah’s high-trajectory fireplace continued. Israel, in consequence, has been fighting two wars against the Iran-backed Syrian army.

The first war, now seemingly over, was particular to Israeli communities that live within of 5, 500 meters ( 3.4 miles ) from the border, the range of Hezbollah’s hand-held ATGMs. Another threat was posed by the frontier itself.

Israelis lost trust in safety railings like the one that kept them from Lebanon after Hamas massacred 1,200 Israelis on October 7, 2023.

Hezbollah’s ATGMs and the uncertain border gate forced the movement of over 60, 000 Jewish settlers. Israel wanted to regenerate its north, but it did it the fastest because of the relatively small size of its military, which made it wait until it had defeated Hamas ‘ danger in the north.

Israel launched a ground operation on October 1 to clear Palestinian territory both underground and above ground from Hezbollah. Since then, the Jewish state has pushed up three meters inside Lebanon, neutralizing Hezbollah’s ATGM danger, and has lost close to 70 soldiers.

The Hebrew state will assuredly hold Palestinian territory until further notice in order to prevent this threat and given the absence of a trustworthy Lebanese government that you manage its side of the border.

If Beirut complains against activity, Jerusalem may provide the Syrian a business: Disband Hezbollah and input into a security arrangement, then consider your land again. Until finally, Israel will have to keep this country as a buffer zone — a no-man’s property.

Israel is fighting another battle with Hezbollah, one in which the Iran-backed military uses high-trajectory fire to beat somewhere in Israel. In reply, Israel has been hitting weapon hoard stores and eliminating Hezbollah’s chain of command.

Additionally, Iran’s proxy militias are prohibited from receiving supplies shipping via land and air to the Beirut airport under an arms sanctions.

To claim Israel success, Hezbollah and Hamas have frequently set two indicators: Israel’s ability to eliminate the militias ‘ leaders, and its failure to stop high-trajectory fireplace on Israel. A political arrangement on the terms of the militia was added by Hezbollah, which promised Israel that it would not be able to reunite its citizens with their north cities.

Hamas furthermore added a second measurement: Without concessions on hard-earned surveillance efforts, Israel may not be able to release the roughly 100 victims that the Palestinians kidnapped on October 7th. But since October 7, 2023, Israel has managed to essentially crush the “victory” indicators of both Hezbollah and Hamas. Both armies ‘ command has been destroyed by it.

In Gaza, Israel has even managed to reduce the high-trajectory fire hazard. Estimates suggest that, since October 7, Hamas has fired over 20, 000 missiles on Israel. By August 2024, but, Hamas had depleted its reserves. Its launch ceased to be frequent.

Hezbollah’s weapon stockpile was little bigger, estimated at 150, 000 before the war. By October 2024, Hezbollah’s property had apparently fallen to 27, 000. If Hezbollah maintains its normal regular launch of 100 projectiles, its missiles will last until early July, after which the army’s great missile fire withers away.

Hezbollah’s very existence may become useless if it is unable to launch missiles or shoot across the border at Israel.

Israel will either continue to monitor and restrict the supply of weapons to Hezbollah and Hamas while maintaining a buffer zone between Lebanon and Gaza, or it will need to establish concerned governments that remove the weapons from the hands of their armies.

Syrian and Palestinian citizens can rely heavily on international and Arab capitals to support and guide them from surviving on militias to demanding trustworthy governments. However, the Syrian and Palestinians must initially demand and demand for a result. After all, one can only lead a horse to the valley, but can never make it drink.

Hezbollah and Hamas seem to be unaware that the status quo has changed as a result of Israel’s defense victories and the deaths of their communities. The militants appear to believe they can turn the clock back to October 6, 2023, a classic example of “resistance” hopeful thinking that has hampered serenity and sparked war throughout the past decade.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain works for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies ( FDD ) as a researcher.

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CelcomDigi considering viable options after losing out on Malaysia’s second 5G network

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  • Decision has no effect on its 5G customers, may remain delivering companies
  • Contends it would have been the best move to quickly and affordably give system

Idham Nawawi, CelcomDigi’s CEO, made the case that the telco was best equipped among the parties that bid for the second 5G network to quickly and at a more cost-efficient rate, roll out its 5G network for the benefit of the rakyat.

The Indonesian government announced on November 1 that it had selected U Mobile Sdn Bhd as the operator of Malaysia’s next 5G network, CelcomDigi, the largest telco in the nation with 20.2 million subscribers, and reiterated in a statement today that it had reaffirmed its position that it had submitted a powerful technical and commercial proposal to build the next 5G network based on its economic standing and track record of investing in and developing large-scale wireless networks and providing high-quality services to the

This includes the ability to begin a global implementation almost immediately following the award of the spectrum, and to create a 5G network that will suit our 4G and 4G network’s people in the shortest possible amount of time,” it said.

In a recent interview with business publication The Edge, before Friday’s selection by the government, Idham Nawawi, CelcomDigi’s CEO, made the case that the company was greatest equipped among the parties that charge for the next 5G network to quickly and at a more cost-efficient level, roll out its 5G network for the benefit of the rakyat.

Idham noted that the merged company had quickly made progress in reducing its combined network from 21, 000 to 18, 000 towers that could be converted to 5G-ready in two years with additional and software upgrades following the merger of Celcom and Digi in 2021. &nbsp,

Looking ahead, the telco reiterated that the top priority is still to ensure that its customers have access to a reliable and affordable 5G network. We will talk with various stakeholders to discuss the various options that might be available to us, in order to benefit both our customers and shareholders.

CelcomDigi will continue to concentrate on merger integration to achieve its savings and synergy goals while achieving network integration in the process. At 68 % complete, it said 65 % of customers have benefited from improved experience on the new intelligent network.

In order to support Malaysia’s transition into a 5G-AI-powered digital society, CelcomDigi vowed to continue providing the best choice and value in connectivity services and the best customer experience to Malaysian consumers and businesses.

Attention has turned to a world-class Single Wholesale Network ( SWN ) approach that would have allowed all telcos to compete on purely service delivery and marketing, instead of opting for a Dual Wholesale Network approach and allowing industry lobbying in addition to its SWN decision.

U Mobile will work with other telcos to create the second network in the capacity of owner and operator of the second 5G network. Those that partner with U Mobile and happen to be Digital Nasional Bhd ( DNB) shareholders, as U Mobile is, will have to exit ( DNB) selling their stakes back to it. U Mobile has named Telekom Malaysia Bhd and CelcomDigi ( a shareholder in DNB) as the companies it will be approaching as partners.

Maxis Bhd ( a shareholder in DNB), which was rumored to be interested in acquiring U Mobile if it were successful to win the bid for the second 5G network, was not mentioned.

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