Moves – Page 15 – Sure A Not

PM Wong makes ‘radical’ policy shifts in maiden National Day Rally: Analysts

On: August 18, 2024

Previous non-constituency member of Parliament and associate professor of economics at the National University of Singapore, associate professor for undergraduate education, said the laws were intended to promote equitable growth, a development that Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong set as Prime Minister, as well as President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, when he was in Cabinet.

A DIFFERENT Century

Dr Leong noted that Mr Wong’s view was “groundbreaking” in its own manner, compared to his father Mr Lee.

In his first National Day Rally in 2004, Mr. Lee had touched on spiritual cattle by introducing a five-day work week and the concept of gambling in Singapore.

” I think it’s about reaching out to a different era of Singaporeans. Up then, there was a sizable population of people who were born before freedom when then-PM Lee delivered his first NDR. According to him, the audience to which PM Wong is reaching out had a very unique relationships.

The key is to understand that it’s about a new social small, and now we witnessed the crystallization of the dialogue in different policies that Singaporeans can relate to, such as housing and education.

Dr. Goh noted that Mr. Lee was responding to significant problems in his day, such as the risk of stagnation in the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS.

Dr. Goh noted that most of Sunday’s announcements are focused on these issues, and that Mr. Wong is now directly concerned with hardening social mobility and the threat of long elitism and sturdy inequality.

Strong MOVES IN Guidelines

The launch of a SkillsFuture Jobseeker Support Scheme, which would assist low- and middle-income employees who have lost their jobs, was one particular policy that caught the attention of spectators.

Dr Leong noted that it is” a big change of way”, recognising that even the white-collar university-educated workplace may face issues about the loss of employment.

Being a work is more than just monetary compensation; it’s also about a form of identification and dignity, according to the Singaporean tradition. The financial aid is certainly a lot compared to what you get in a full-time task, but it is crucial”.

Independent social observer Felix Tan, who has written about Singapore’s political and social environment, called it a shocking move as it is” a shift away from the president’s strict ‘ little welfare state ‘ concept”.

” I would caution against the notion that this would imply that Singapore is a “welfare state.” There are requirements for the financial support programs for those who have lost their jobs. Therefore, it is not like many developed Western countries where the state provides for its people, come what may”, he said.

Dr. Goh noted that the initiative is being referred to as the SkillsFuture banner because it is crucial that incentives to retrain and reskill the workforce in addition to the S$ 6, 000 over six months financial support.

Raygun: How did B-Girl Rachael Gunn make it to the Olympics?

By: Marcus Ching

On: August 17, 2024

In: Asia

Getty Images Raygun, wearing a t-shirt and cap, holds her arms out in front of her

When Rachael Gunn, also known as Raygun, bombed out of the Paris Olympics, a small hip-hop image on the other side of the world was shocked by the ripples.

Breakers in a Sydney warehouse-turned-community center cozy up with abdominal exercises that would make a Pilates instructor cry before performing gymnastic acrobatics on the floor so difficult to identify.

The past week has been very important for one of the most significant activities of the year, which is the Red Bull BC One World Finals tournament.

A few people sigh uneasy as the few cameras that line the dancing group, their minds undoubtedly flashing images of Gunn that have thrown the internet into the mix.

Asian hip-hop pioneer Spice told the BBC,” I feel like it’s just pushed our scene in Australia into the Dark Ages.”

Gunn, a 36-year-old university lecturer, lost all three of her Olympic battles in viral fashion, her green and gold tracksuit and unorthodox routine – which included the sprinkler and kangaroo-inspired hopping – generating waves of memes and abuse.

The American community’s breaking has been divided and disappointed by the consequences.

” It made a ridicule of the American image and I think that’s why a lot of us are hurting”, Spice says.

Some people have sprung up to protect Raygun from the assault.

Others are willing to acknowledge that there are questions that need to be answered about her performance and qualifications, but claim that the widespread harassment has undermined any effort to properly assess what transpired in Paris.

Red Bull Australia/Ken Leanfore A "b-girl" competes to qualify for the Red Bull BC One World Final

Gunn’s doubtful roots

Gunn has always been a dance, though initially in music, touch, and room, but it was her father and mentor Samuel Free who first introduced her to the world of breaking when she was 20.

She claims it took her years to reshape the male-dominated field.

Before the Olympics, she told The Guardian Australia,” There were times when I would go into the bath crying because I was but embarrassed at how bad I was at this.”

Gunn gradually emerged as the face of breaking in Australia as a top-ranked b-girl and educational with a PhD in the ethnic politics of the game.

And at a eligible Olympics event in Sydney in October, where 15 Oceanian people competed, Raygun triumphantly won the title and was awarded her Parisian entry.

Like Gunn, bursting was apparently a shocking candidate for the Olympics. The street party quickly developed into a worldwide phenomenon after being born in the social melting pot of the Bronx in the 1970s.

And in recent years, it caught the attention of Olympic officials who were trying to draw in new and younger people in addition to industrial sports like skateboarding and BMX slalom.

Some claimed it did n’t merit Olympic recognition, while others claimed a contest like this could n’t capture the essence of breaking and would only further detract from the street culture it originated in.

All eyes were on the Paris event to see if the Olympic Committee’s bargain had fruit.

Hottest issue on the planet

It was obvious right away that splitting had truly captured the world’s attention when the last b-girl battle at the Olympics ended, or more precisely, Raygun had.

Murmurings and criticism of her achievement spread like animals, especially online. Gunn received a torrent of aggressive information.

An unnamed petition demanding Gunn sorry was signed by 50, 000 people.

Without providing any evidence, she was accused of manipulating her way onto the biggest step in Australia at the cost of other young talent.

Some people made up a fabricated claim that she had founded the brain that oversees the Oceania qualifiers and that her father, a well-known part of the breaking area and a competent judge, was a member of the panel that chose her.

Australian factchecking organisations and AUSBreaking, the national organisation for breaking, quickly tried to correct the record, but that didn’t stop the flood.

Those who claimed she had mocked hip-hop traditions were also voiced objections.

AUSBreaking emphasized in a number of statements that judges were” trained to uphold the highest standards of objectivity” and that not an Australian was ever a member of the nine-person board for the Oceania finals.

And while AUSBreaking has had many “interactions” with Raygun since its conception in 2019, at no stage had she ever held a management position or been involved in “any selection making over events, money, strategy, determine choice or performer selection”.

Te Hiiritanga Wepiha, a Kiwi prosecutor on the Oceania eligibility section, took to Instagram to deny all the” lunatic ideas,” saying Raygun won fair and square.

” All us judges talked about how she was going to get smashed, absolutely smashed ]at the Olympics ] … She knew it was going to be rough, so it’s actually courageous of her”, Wepiha – also known as Rush – said in a livestream

Some of the nation’s most renowned sports and top Olympic officials also vehemently defended Gunn.

” The complaint has sparked public anger without any scientific justification.” It’s appalling”, the Australian Olympic Committee’s Matt Carroll said in a speech.

Gunn herself had previously said she was “never” going to be able to defeat her prominent competitors, but had “wanted to proceed differently, be creative and creative”.

Gunn stated in a video that was posted to social media in the face of the storm that she had taken the competition “very seriously.”

” I worked my hardest while trying to get ready for the Olympics,” I said. Truly”.

She had only been trying to “bring joy”, she said. ” I did n’t realize that that would also open the door to so much hate, which has frankly been pretty devastating”.

Community split

Photography.jny B-girl Tinylock battles in 2022

Some hip-hop artists in Australia acknowledge that the reaction to Raygun’s routine initially elicited” a chuckle” but quickly got out of hand.

Everyone blasted the level of misinformation, abuse, and ridicule that had been directed at Raygun and the wider Australian b-girl population without exception.

But beyond that, feeling is somewhat split.

Many b-girls say Raygun’s performance does not reflect the standard in Australia.

” When I first saw it, I was so embarrassed”, Spice– who retired from breaking years ago – says.

On any other stage, Raygun would have been praised and applauded for “having a go,” Spice claims, but there is a requirement for those who represent the nation to be at a certain level.

” It’s the Olympics for God’s sake”!

” In hip-hop we have this thing, you step up or you step off … You need to know your place”.

She stresses, though, that the “bullying is just disgusting”.

B-girl’s videos are being trolled, their DMs inundated with insults and violent threats. Many young dancers now feel unsafe performing in public because of harassment they are receiving at school.

” The impact this controversy has had on the local Australian girls has been devastating…]we’re ] allowed to be angry”, b-girl Tinylocks told the BBC.

She said, like some others the BBC spoke to, that they did not want their full names to be published due to the volume of abuse that was being circulating.

Tinylocks, who has battled Raygun herself, believes Gunn simply had a terrible day, and questions her routine choices.

” We know you’re capable of more … Were you set up for success”?

Wepiha, the judge on the Oceania panel known as Rush, claims Gunn’s victory in qualifying shows how big the “tiny” breaking scene in Australia is and how much more popular and government-backed it is.

” I mean, we had to actually get people out of retirement to make up the numbers”, Rush said.

” That’s how small the scene is”.

Others claim that there were rules in place that could have increased the talent pool, such as the requirement that potential qualifiers must be members of AUSBreaking and have a valid passport in accordance with those recommendations made by the World Dance Sport Federation.

AUSBreaking did not respond to the BBC’s queries about Raygun’s selection, the financial support it receives or how it seeks out the country’s best breaking talent.

However, Steve Gow, the group’s secretary and Stevie G’s long-time b-boy, tells the BBC that the size and geographic isolation of Australia prevents the growth and development of the scene.

Being so far away from larger, more hip-hop communities abroad can make it difficult to learn from them, both financially and in terms of the required time.

” It can be very insular”, he says.

As if proving the point, he regularly pauses to greet almost everyone who walks into the Red Bull competition, which he is judging.

He asserts that there is still a high standard of breaking in Australia.

Ultimately, the community is bitterly hurt by the world’s response.

They feel breaking is n’t truly understood, and that people have piled on without knowledge or context.

” It’s a big disappointment because they’re not talking about the winners … they’re all talking about Raygun’s memes, and they’re not even seeing her full set”, Samson Smith– a member of hip hop group Justice Crew and a breaker for over two decades – told Network 10.

However, many people are hopeful that there may still be a bright side to the story.

” She might actually bring enough attention to get resources”, Rush said.

” Australia has the most well-known Olympian of 2024, and she might actually save the scene here,” she said.

Commentary: We need to think hard about joss paper burning habits

By: Marcus Ching

On: August 16, 2024

In: South-East Asia

NOT JUST ABOUT THE SMELL

Singapore’s technique so far is one of tolerance and expediency. We ca n’t completely stop burning, but we can continue to ignore the problem year after year.

To be honest, there have been fewer concerns over joss paper losing. During the Chinese New Year time this year, city governments and government organizations logged 567 problems, down from 761 instances during the same time in 2023, marking an all-time small.

Although the AfA’s complaint reduction points to progress and powerful advocacy, our population density increases as Singapore’s people grows. More and more people are residing closer and closer up, which means that a greater number of homes are affected by the by-products of joss paper using at any one day.

The problem is not just about taste or discomfort. According to studies in air pollution, like dust, whether religious or not, poses a growing threat to public health. In other words, it’s not just about the unpleasant scent; it’s also about improving one’s health.

However, as household wealth likewise increases, people are similarly tempted to buy more and lose more. There are plenty of companies willing to fulfill desire in our customer community. One only needs to enter a supermarket right away to purchase as much papers as possible and burn a Fort Knox value of “gold paper.”

As an away, we might want to know whether the amount we burn is a reflection of the desires of our grandparents or whether the existing are under pressure to “keep up looks.” Are our wishes to protect against misfortunes unfairly influenced by a world that is driven to consume more and consumes more each month?

Fresh-faced Shinawatra takes the helm in tumultuous Thailand – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: August 16, 2024

In: Asia

A dramatic and unexpected change in national leadership that consolidates the family clan’s hold on politics but wo n’t necessarily bring them to a stable foundation has been announced for Thailand’s next prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. &nbsp,

The 37-year-old political novice and devoted girl of until late self-exiled ex-premier and present Peua Thai party sponsor Thaksin Shinawatra voted overwhelmingly in favor, 319 for, 145 against, and 27 abstinence.

The beautiful Paetongtarn, a estate executive known as” Ung Ing,” becomes Thailand’s youngest-ever premier and is the third Shinawatra family member to take the lead, after the previous three were toppled by dictatorships and courts. &nbsp,

Paetongtarn was being prepared to take the leadership of Peua Thai in the 2027 general elections, giving the party’s aging greats who decades back won on a” think fresh, act new” seat a desperately needed children boost.

Srettha Thavisin’s fate, which was announced this week, accelerated the royal timeframe. On August 14, the Constitutional Court ruled that his Cabinet’s visit of an ex-convict who again tried to bribe court judges with cash in a carrier in a situation involving Thaksin constituted a violation of ethics.

Srettha’s brief tenure will be remembered as largely ineffective as a result of bureaucratic resistance to his populist digital wallet cash handout scheme, which he bowed deeply and frequently and frequently to.

It will be closely watched and crucial to stability and her own political survival whether Paetongtarn adopts the same conciliatory stance toward the royal establishment that led to her father and aunt’s exile. &nbsp,

Although Thaksin and his ex-wife were known to be reluctant to put their politically conservative daughter, who was pregnant on the 2023 campaign trail, in the line of fire so early in her political career. &nbsp,

That reluctance was evident in Thaksin’s initial support for Chaikasem Nitsiri, the party’s choice for prime minister, hours after Srettha’s fall. The blazing hot-button issue that led to the downing of the progressive Move Forward party last week was Chaikasem’s previous calls to reform the lese majeste law.

The appointment of Chaikasem would have divided the coalition and signaled the backroom agreement between Thaksin and palace representatives that had united Peua Thai and conservative-leaning parties as uneasy bedfellows in the name of national unity prior to last year’s poll was now over.

Srettha’s unexpected court-ordered demise and the numerous conservative roadblocks that torpedoed his stimulus policies and the Thai economy may indicate that the royal establishment has already abandoned the agreement and will likewise attempt to disrupt and stymie Paetongtarn’s rule. If so, Paetongtarn may have been deliberately shoved in by Thaksin’s careful hand until now, putting her in position of power before she is ready for prime time.

By not spending a single night in jail for his criminal convictions and then overtly leading Srettha’s government from behind the scenes, some conservatives claim Thaksin violated the terms of his royal pardon, which King Vajiralongkorn granted him. &nbsp,

If the royal deal is indeed dead, Paetongtarn could face similar conservative opposition, especially if she prioritizes a pending political amnesty that could bring her ex-premier aunt, who has been sentenced to death, from self-exile. On the campaign trail last year, she might also be subject to scrutiny for her own remarks about lese majeste reform.

There are new indications that the royalist noose on the Shinawatras is tightening once more. With a first hearing set for August 19, Thaksin faces a new lese majeste charge that he apparently is not covered by his previous royal pardon. Any move to withhold the ex-premier’s bail would mark a hard and clear escalation. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Paetongtarn’s moves will be closely and critically watched for signs of Thaksin’s paternal guidance. His command control was apparent even before she took the chair when announcing on August 15 Srettha’s 450 billion baht ( US$ 12.5 billon ) digital wallet handout, set for populist disbursal in November, would be scrapped.

Some people believe that the digital wallet will be replaced by village funds for the” creative economy,” according to Paetongtarn’s fiscal plan in her first address to a foreign audience at a small-room American Chamber of Commerce event on November 30.

That would potentially give her a new-age signature policy that could seek to reprise and modernize Thaksin’s own “one village, one product” scheme, the brainchild of his then-top advisor Pansak Vinyaratn that showered one million baht on all of the country’s then 77, 000 villages.

Indeed, Pansak’s voice was audible in Paetongtarn’s Am-Cham presentation, which referenced Harvard academic Joseph Nye’s notion of” soft power” as a model for Thai diplomacy and policy, and unabashedly lauded Thaksin and Pansak’s past grassroots policies aimed at the rural poor. &nbsp,

However, Paetongtarn must persuade Thailand’s voters and international investors that her leadership is a truly new, more innovative approach to Thailand’s economic woes and demographic challenges, and that she is not just a stooge for Thaksin’s frequently grasping old guard.

The People’s Party, the new incarnation of the Move Forward party, is now wearing that new-age mantle; the party was banned this month for its campaigning to reform the lese majeste law, a position the Constitutional Court ruled was equivalent to trying to overthrow the constitutional monarchy.

A local authoritative poll conducted in mid-June showed Move Forward’s now-banned ex-leader Pita Limjaroenrat was favored by 45.5 % to be prime minister, widely outpacing then-premier Srettha’s 12.85 % and Paetongtarn’s 4.85 %. ( 20.55 % of respondents opted for” no satisfactory choice”. )

The same poll showed 49.2 % would have chosen Move Forward if new elections were held, streets ahead of the second-placing Peua Thai’s 16.85 %. While the People’s Party lamented Srettha’s court-ordered dismissal as “anti-democratic”, with the polls firmly on its side, the party declined to vote for Paetongtarn as his democratic replacement.

China isn’t getting the Japan it wants – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: August 16, 2024

In: Asia

This content was originally published by Pacific Forum, and it has since been republished. Read the original below.

The US and Japanese overseas and defence ministers met in Tokyo last month of July to declare they would increase bilateral security assistance as Beijing looked on furiously.

The US government announced that it would improve its military control post in Japan to a combined force headquarters, improving connectivity between the two supporters ‘ militaries. A&nbsp, shared statement&nbsp, strongly criticized China over a wide variety of policies.

In response, the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) Ministry of Foreign Affairs&nbsp, said, &nbsp,” We call on the US and Japan to immediately stop interfering in China’s internal affairs, stop creating confrontation, ]and ] stop triggering a new Cold War”.

This is yet another example of the PRC’s long-term inability to tame its main Asian rival. In profound ways, China is n’t getting the Japan it wants, largely because of Beijing’s own counterproductive behavior.

What does the Chinese authorities want Japan to get?

Second, Beijing wants Tokyo, along with all other institutions, to refrain from criticizing China or its laws.
Next, ^the PRC wants ^the global community to acquire Japan continually unwor^thy of regional administration because of Japan’s crimes during ^the 20^th&nbsp, millennium.
Third, Beijing wants Tokyo to accept all Chinese says that it is the owner of the disputed country, including those involving Japan and Taiwan as well.
Third, the Chinese government wants a Japan that is neither physically strong nor aligned with the US, leaving China as the region’s uncontested strategic great power.
China wants Japan to provide high-tech and experience to China, thereby enabling it to advance up the value-added ladder and later become a global leader in crucial emerging systems, as stated in Beijing’s ambitious blueprint,” Made in China 2025.”

In each of these conditions, but, Tokyo is moving in the opposite direction of China’s choices.

Until lately, Tokyo was somewhat careful about calling out China. The US-Japan mutual declaration in late July, however, contained copious&nbsp, accusations. China, it said,” seeks to restructure the global order for its own profit at the cost of others”, uses “political, financial, and military coercion”, and “represents the greatest geopolitical challenge in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond”.

The declaration mentions China’s “escalatory behaviour” around Japan’s southern islands, the “rapid” and non-transparent growth of China’s nuclear weapons products, “unlawful maritime claims” and “provocative activities” in the South China Sea, harmful harassment by PRC vessels and aircraft, threatening behavior toward Taiwan and support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

It also criticizes Chinese domestic policies, including those that “disclose Hong Kong’s freedom and rights as well as the PRC’s human rights issues, including those in Xinjiang and Tibet.”

Despite PRC politics that denigrates Japan, Chinese leadership is exceedingly welcome&nbsp, in the region. Japan is typically rehabilitated in the eyes of the international community despite the fact that many Chinese and Koreans harbor grievances.

PRC officers continue to&nbsp, talk&nbsp, about Japan needing to “gain the confidence of its Eastern relatives”, but the neighbors have moved on. In a 2024&nbsp, survey&nbsp, of wealthy attitudes in South Asian nations conducted by Singapore’s Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, respondents named Japan the “most trusted” big country.

Notwithstanding escalating Chinese pressure since 2012, Japan has refused to acknowledge China’s claims to ownership of the Senkaku Islands ( called Diaoyu by Beijing ) as legitimate, insisting the issue is settled.

In recent years, Tokyo has become more vocal in its criticism of Chinese military intimidation, despite the fact that Japan has never rebuffed Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.

Tokyo&nbsp, supports&nbsp, the 2016 ruling by the intergovernmental Permanent Court of Arbitration that invalidated Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea.

The US-Japan military alliance is still strong and growing. Japan is putting more of its military to the test, and it is loosing the restrictions on using force that were put in place after World War II. Both trends are fundamentally unfavorable to the PRC.

The Chinese government has publicly criticised every significant step as Japan slowly and gradually re-militarizes over the past few decades.

However, this did not stop the Japanese government from accelerating its re-militarization over the past two years, which saw the government designating a long-range strike capability, expand defense spending from 1 % to 2 % of the country’s GDP, operate small aircraft carriers, lift the export ban, and appoint a new unified command for the three branches of the Japanese military.

Instead of reliably supplying China with advanced technology, Japan supports economic&nbsp, de-risking. In particular, Tokyo is&nbsp, cooperating&nbsp, with Washington’s campaign to restrict the transfer of advanced semiconductors to China.

All of this is occurring primarily as a result of Beijing’s aggressive actions, with additions from Russia and North Korea.

Japanese&nbsp, think&nbsp, China’s military buildup is excessive and worrisome. China’s burgeoning military capabilities and&nbsp, intensifying&nbsp, threats toward Taiwan seemingly increase the prospect of Beijing seizing control of the island, which would position the PRC to control sea lanes vital to Japan’s well-being.

Xi’s decision to build a complex of military bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea beginning in 2013 jolted the region, including&nbsp, Japan, into viewing Chinese foreign policy more pessimistically.

Beijing has been able to persuade Japan’s citizens that China is threatening to annex its own territory. Since 2012, China has increased the number of government vessels sailing close to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, overreacting with the Japanese government’s decision to buy the islands from a Japanese family. The PRC releases occasional hints in&nbsp, official media&nbsp, and even from&nbsp, Xi himself&nbsp, that China rather than Japan is the rightful owner of the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa.

The southernmost tip of the Japanese archipelago is made up of the Ryukyu Islands. Map: Wikipedia

Finally, Russia’s attempt to annex all of Ukraine starting in 2022 made Japan feel much less secure, mostly because of the&nbsp, sense&nbsp, that the Russian invasion makes a Chinese war of conquest in Asia more likely. The Russian war effort is supported by Beijing, but Beijing’s diplomatic and financial support does nothing to quell Japan’s concern.

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and PRC Foreign Minister Wang Yi met just before the US-Japan meeting in July. PRC official media paraphrased Wang&nbsp, telling&nbsp, Kamikawa that” the China-Japan relationship is at a critical juncture where it would reverse if failing to advance”, the&nbsp, same thing&nbsp, Wang&nbsp, said&nbsp, over a year ago. However, if there ever was such a” critical juncture,” Japan is now well past it.

Denny Roy ( royd@eastwestcenter .org ) is a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu.

China’s rhetoric turns dangerously real for Taiwanese

By: Marcus Ching

On: August 15, 2024

In: Asia

Getty Images A supporter of ruling Democrats Progressive Party (DPP) puts a sticker on her face reading "Defense Democracy, stand guard Taiwan" during a Parliament reform bill voting at the Parliament on 24 May, 2024.

Calls to reject “die hard” Chinese secessionists, a tipline to record them and punishments that could include the death sentence for “ringleaders” – Beijing’s common rhetoric against Taiwan is turning extremely true.

The democratically-governed area has grown used to China’s says. Perhaps the boats and planes that defend its defenses have become a regular occurrence. However, the current moves to criminalize help for it irritate Taiwanese who reside and work in China and those who reside there.

A Chinese businesswoman from China stated,” I am now planning to accelerate my departure.” This was immediately after the Supreme Court approved changes that would allow for the death penalty for those who had fought for Taiwan’s independence.

” I do n’t think that is making a mountain out of a molehill. The collection is now very unclear”, says Prof Yu Jie, a constitutional scholar at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica.

The 23 million Taiwanese were quickly informed by China’s Taiwan Affairs Office that this is not intended for them, but rather an “extremely small number of hard-line freedom protesters.” The office claimed that the “vast majority of Japanese compatriots have nothing to anxiety.”

However, Taiwanese who are wary claim that they do n’t want to put that theory to the test. Numerous Taiwanese who reside and work in China have spoken to the BBC and said they are either considering leaving quickly or have already left. Some people wanted to get interviewed on-camera, and nobody wanted to get identified.

” Any statement you make right now could be misinterpreted and you could be refuted.” China now encouraged people to report on people, even prior to this new legislation, according to the woman.

Last week, a site that identified Japanese public figures who were deemed “die hard” separatists was made established by Chinese authorities. The website had a list of email addresses where users could mail” facts and crimes” about people they knew or suspect of being named.

According to scholars, Beijing hopes to imitate Hong Kong’s national protection laws, which it argued were required for stability, but they have stoked the pro-democracy movement because original lawmakers, activists, and regular citizens who despise the government have been imprisoned as a result.

Beijing hopes to” slice off the group’s relations with the outside world and to distribute Taiwan’s community between those who support Taiwan’s independence and those who do not,” according to Prof. Chen, a constitutional scholar at Taiwan’s Academia Sinica.

She claims that some Taiwanese who reside in China will almost certainly be prosecuted as a result of the Supreme Court’s guidance.

” This opinion has been communicated to all levels of law enforcement throughout the country. So, this is a way to say to them:” We want to see more cases like this being prosecuted, so go and find one.”

Getty Images Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te waves as he delivers his inaugural speech after being sworn into office during the inauguration ceremony at the Presidential Office Building in Taipei on May 20, 2024.

” We must be even more cautious”, said a Taiwanese man based in Macao. He claimed that he had always been prepared for threats, but that the new legal guidance had caused his friends to “express concern” about their future in the Chinese city.

” Patriotic education has become more prevalent in Macau in recent years, with more assertive statements on Taiwan causing a more tense environment than before thepandemic period,” he continued.

Taiwan, which has powerful allies in the US, the EU and Japan, rejects Beijing’s plans for “reunification” – but fears have been growing that China’s Xi Jinping has sped up the timeline to take the island, an avowed goal of the Chinese Communist Party.

For more than 30 years Taiwanese companies- iPhone-maker Foxconn, advanced chips giant TSMC and electronics behemoth Acer – have played a key role in China’s growth. Additionally, the prosperity brought Taiwanese from across the strait who were looking for better jobs and employment opportunities.

When I first moved to Shanghai, I was in awe of it. It felt so much bigger, more exciting, more cosmopolitan than Taipei”, says Zoe Chu*. She managed foreign musicians who were in high demand from clubs and venues in cities across China for more than a decade in Shanghai.

This was the mid-2000s when China was booming, drawing money and people from across the globe. Shanghai was at the center of it; it was bigger, shinier, and more fashionable than any other Chinese city.

My friends in Shanghai were hostile toward Beijing. They called it the big northern village”, Ms Chu recalls. Shanghai was the ideal location. It had the best restaurants, the best nightclubs, the coolest people. I felt like such a country bumpkin, but I learned fast”.

Getty Images Soldiers on board an amphibious ferrying vehicle take part in a river defense exercise as part of the annual Han Kuang military drill, at Tamsui River in New Taipei, Taiwan on July 22, 2024

By the end of that decade – in 2009- more than 400, 000 Taiwanese lived in China. By 2022, that number had plummeted to 177, 000, according to official figures from Taiwan.

” China had changed”, says Ms Chu, who left Shanghai in 2019. She has no intention of returning to work for a medical company in Taipei.

” I am Taiwanese”, she explains. ” It’s no longer safe for us there”.

The Taiwanese exodus has been driven by the same things that have pushed huge numbers of foreigners to leave China – a sluggish economy, growing hostility between Beijing and Washington and, most of all, the sudden and sweeping lockdowns during the Covid pandemic.

Taiwanese in China have expressed concern because they are not seen as “foreigners,” which makes them particularly vulnerable to state oppression.

15 Taiwanese nationals are currently being detained in China, according to senior Taiwanese officials, for “violations of the anti-secession law” among others.

In 2019, China jailed a Taiwanese businessman for espionage after he was caught taking photos of police officers in Shenzen – a charge he denied. He was only released last year. In April 2023, China confirmed that it had arrested a Taiwan-based publisher for “endangering national security”. He still remains in custody.

Amy Hsu*, who previously lived and worked in China, claims that because of her job, she is now afraid to even go there. She returned to Taiwan and began volunteering at an NGO that assisted people who had fled Hong Kong in making their permanent residence there.

” It is definitely more dangerous for me now”, she says. ” In 2018, they started using surveillance cameras to fine people for jaywalking, and the system could pick up your face and send the fine right to your home.”

She claims the level of surveillance disturbed her and that it can be used to pursue even visitors, especially those who are on a list of potential offenders.

Getty Images A device to monitor passenger flow is seen at the Bund on March 31, 2023 in Shanghai, China.

” Oh I am definitely on the list. I am a hardline pro-independence]guy ] with lots of ideas”, chuckles Robert Tsao, a 77-year-old tech billionaire, who founded one of Taiwan’s largest chip-makers, United Micro-electronics Corporation ( UMC).

Mr Tsao was born in Beijing, but today he supports Taiwan independence and avoids not just China, but also Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand and even Singapore.

Mr. Tsao had a history of hostile relations with China. One of the first investors from Taiwan to establish cutting-edge chip factories in China. However, he claims that the Hong Kong crackdown caused him to change his perspective:” It was so liberating and vibrant and now it’s gone.” And they want to treat us similarly here.

He claims that” this new ruling is actually helping people like me.” He thinks it will backfire, boosting Taiwan’s people’s resolve to stand up for China.

” We have all become criminals because they claim the new law will only affect a select few hard-line independence supporters like me, but so many Taiwanese people either support independence or the status quo, which is the same thing, so we have all become criminals.”

* Names changed on request of contributors

AUKUS AI drones shadowed by China’s tech supremacy – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: August 15, 2024

In: Asia

Cutting-edge AI-enabled AUKUS drone tests show the group’s push for technologically superior military power, but business restraints and Chinese marketplace dominance could stymie its readiness for upcoming conflicts.

The UK’s Defense Science and Technology Laboratory ( DSTL ) reported this month that Australia, the UK, and the US have successfully tested AI-enabled uncrewed aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) that enable human operators to identify and neutralize ground targets.

The trial, which is a component of the AUKUS Resilient and Autonomous Artificial Intelligence Technologies (RAAIT ) series, is reportedly the first real-time military use of autonomous and AI sensing systems, according to DSTL.

The source says that the practice, conducted during the annual US-hosted Project Convergence, showcased creative AI and freedom, substantially reducing target identifying time and minimizing risk to personnel.

Additionally, it mentions that the training demonstrated improved interoperability and access to advanced AI among the AUKUS countries, as well as the potential for protecting defense goods from digital war and GPS problems.

According to DSTL, Commodore Rachel Singleton, head of the AUKUS Defence Artificial Intelligence Center ( DAIC ), stressed the value of interoperable systems developed across the three countries.

According to the cause, the technology, which has been fast developing since its first British test in April 2023, aims to give the military an operational edge against evolving threats.

These creative work may be part of AUKUS Pillar II, which focuses on advanced military features such as computer capabilities, AI and freedom, classical technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, and digital war capabilities.

Small robots have proved to be devastating weapons in the continuing conflict in Ukraine, but AUKUS has probably been slow to adopt them as the core of the tech-driven empire.

The group faces major difficulties in implementing small drones due to high production costs, fierce opposition from Chinese manufacturers, reliance on Chinese components, and source competition from different projects.

Defense One pointed out this month that Ukraine’s powerful annual production of one million first-person-view drones could result in a potential shortfall in the US Army’s small drone production for defense purposes.

Defense One points out that private companies like Skydio and Teal struggle to match demand because of China’s market hegemony and higher generation costs, despite the US Army’s increasing inclusion of drones, inspired by Russian battle successes.

According to the Defense One report, the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) slow purchasing and limited assistance create barriers for startups in the drone market. Additionally, it raises questions about the higher price and lower performance of US drones compared to Chinese ones.

However, Breaking Defense reported this month that the US had chosen some systems for Tranche 2 of its Replicator program, which was intended to field large numbers of disposable drones. Previously, the US included the Switchblade kamikaze drone in the program.

Underscoring Australia’s dependence on China for drone capability, Defense Post reported in August 2023 that the Australian government is using 3, 000 Chinese-made drones with components such as cameras, gimbals and batteries blacklisted by the US for their alleged links to China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).

Due to the absence of a sovereign drone manufacturing base, Australia is more prone to supply chain disruptions, according to Defense Post. Although it claims that Australia has a mature drone ecosystem, it only uses it commercially.

Despite those difficulties, Defense Post reported in February that Australia has awarded contracts worth US$ 800, 899 to 11 domestic companies to develop prototype unmanned aerial systems ( UASs ) for its military.

The source says such a move will further Australia’s sovereign drone industry, create jobs and increase military operational effectiveness.

In March 2024, Breaking Defense reported that the UK’s Royal Air Force (RAF ) 216 Squadron, established in 2020 to test uncrewed aircraft, has not conducted any drone tests. The national military drone strategy’s goal of rapid integration of drone services is challenged by this circumstance, according to the report.

In a parliamentary statement, then-President of the UK, James Cartlidge, noted the squadron’s inactivity and the canceled trial with the Koios intelligence drone due to resource conflicts.

The UK Defense Drone Strategy 2024 recommends investing$ 5.91 billion over the next two years in uncrewed capability, accelerating acquisition reform, building a resilient industrial base, defining digital architectures for seamless integration, and instilling a culture of innovation to spur domestic production.

Although the AUKUS bloc has taken significant steps to address these issues and is facing several challenges, the steps may not be enough.

The situation does not bode well for AUKUS vis-à-vis China, the world’s largest drone manufacturer and arguably the reason for the bloc’s existence.

In keeping with that, WSJ reported this month that China saw an opportunity to modernize its military in comparison to the US while the US focused on the Global War on Terror ( GWOT ).

WSJ notes that AI-enabled drones are critical to China’s military modernization efforts. Although the WSJ report notes that drones with limited autonomy could be deployed in combat in the coming years, fully autonomous drones may be far off.

The report also mentions that China dominates the global drone supply chain and is the market leader in large, complex drones like the MQ-9 Reaper and RQ-4 Global Hawk.

It points out that China’s DJI controls 72.3 % of the worldwide drone market share, while the US struggles to create reliable, inexpensive small drones at scale.

WSJ points out that China has a competitive advantage in developing small-scale systems, giving it an advantage in drone swarm tactics. It also mentions that while the US follows a man-in-the-loop approach to using AI-enabled drone swarms, its potential adversaries, such as China, may not abide by such norms.

Additionally, Mark Milley and Eric Schmidt claim in a Foreign Affairs article this month that the US is not adequately prepared for the developing war zone, which is dominated by autonomous weapons, AI, and unmanned systems.

Milley, until recently the US Joint Chief of Staff, and Schmidt, CEO of Google, point out that despite global competitors ‘ rapid advancements in these technologies, the US has lagged in developing and deploying such capabilities effectively.

They attribute delays to outdated military doctrine, bureaucratic inertia, and a lack of explicit strategic intent when integrating AI and autonomous systems into combat operations.

They claim that this inadequacy is particularly worrying because more and more conflicts rely on these cutting-edge technologies to gain a competitive edge on the battlefield. They warn that ignoring the gaps could make the US vulnerable in upcoming conflicts, where they contend that AI and autonomous weapons systems will be crucial.

Leave requests, paperwork delays: Singapore construction firms feel the effects of Bangladesh unrest

By: Marcus Ching

On: August 14, 2024

In: South-East Asia

Expatriates IN SINGAPORE

As activists celebrate Hasina’s withdrawal, but are Bangladeshis in Singapore.

” Simply speaking, it was a sense of enormous relief. The long black night had suddenly ended”, said Dr Muntasir Mannan Choudhury, a Singapore permanent citizen of 17 years. &nbsp,

Many lives were lost in the past few weeks and with her departure, there was” no prospect of further intensification” in the situation that could lead to further deaths, said the senior advisor hand clinician at Alpha Joints and Orthopaedics.

He added that the protests were more about a” cumulation of suffering and anger” over the years due to a variety of causes, including problem and the lack of freedom of speech. They were not just about the task limits. &nbsp,

We applaud the individuals and the common people for doing something that people thought was impossible, according to Dr. Muntasir, who described the incident. &nbsp,

That being said, the 46-year-old was concerned about the safety of his family back home during the top of the protests, especially from the government.

” Many of our family individuals from all over the world and at home had expressed their condolences to the activists because we all thought it was a legitimate and only reason. &nbsp,

” We were scared of vengeance from the authorities on the ones who were now in Bangladesh, particularly my elder friend’s family,” said Dr Muntasir. &nbsp,

Abdullah Hilton, the owner of the business, said his worries heightened when he was unable to call his home for several weeks during the internet outage. &nbsp,

The Bangaldeshi, who has been in Singapore for 17 times, was also concerned about his younger brother, a blogger who moves around usually for his work. &nbsp,

” We ( did n’t ) know who was going to shoot, who was going to die,” said the 41-year-old.

And it was not at all helpful that the location where a college student died was just five minutes away from his parents ‘ home. &nbsp,

However, both Mr. Abdullah and Dr. Muntasir claimed that their problems have been eased as the situation in their home state begins to improve.

Dr Muntasir said he is enthusiastic about Bangladesh’s coming, pointing out that Professor Yunus is the” best option” to lead the country. &nbsp,

One of its “great abilities” will be the addition of the two scholar officials from the organization that organized the demonstrations in the new Cabinet, he said. &nbsp,

We think the people have been heard, and we do n’t think the door will close. It’s a stop. ” &nbsp,

Furthermore, Mr Abdullah said the modifications the protests brought may serve as a reminder for the next state. &nbsp,

” Because of the student protesters, the government ( that ) will be formed in the future will not dare to do anything dishonest. ” &nbsp,

Why Japan’s Kishida finally called it quits – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: August 14, 2024

In: Asia

TOKYO — As Fumio Kishida bows out of Asian leadership, let’s first supply with the roll on why.

No, Prime Minister Kishida is n’t falling on his weapon because of slush fund scandals. His Liberal Democratic Party members are about as uncommon as Tokyoites who consume fresh fish. After 1, 045 days in strength, Kishida’s struggling economy and failure to implement any significant reforms derailed.

Perhaps the premiership of a Group of Seven economy is n’t for you if your biggest improvement in 34 months is increasing the minimum wage to a whopping US$ 7 per hour.

Of course, Joe Biden did Kishida no privileges by stepping away. The strongest argument made by Kashida for winning the party’s leadership election in the upcoming month was her close connection with the US leader. Kamala Harris will now be considered debate as Biden is no longer the Democratic Party nomination.

But Kishida’s situation is its own financial sign with repercussions for shareholders rushing into Tokyo companies, Bank of Japan policies, Eastern geopolitics and US-Japan relations.

The tale driving waves of investment sliding Tokyo’s approach is a “booming” Japan. That epic changes over the last few years, led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whipped aging, inefficient, change-averse Japan Inc. into form.

In one method, this acquire has merit. It’s correct that Abe, Kishida’s leader, from 2012 to 2020 pressed companies to increase returns on investment and offer owners a louder tone. These actions, in addition to sharp drops in the renminbi, boosted corporate earnings and elevated the Nikkei Stock Average above its all-time highs from 1989.

Problem is, that’s very little all so-called” Abenomics” accomplished. Abe’s big talk of weakening labour markets, cutting government, supporting companies, empowering women and attracting top global expertise amounted to little.

Abe encouraged the main bank to open the pecuniary gates and removed the heavy lifting from the BOJ’s management in order to retool the market. However, a weaker yen even fueled a bull industry in confidence.

The japanese depreciation was prioritized over moves to boost competition in all three Asian governments that have been in power since late 2012. More drastic quantitative easing made politicians less and less subject to the force to stage playing fields. It took the burden off CEOs to develop, rebuild and jump for the railings.

That’s then backfiring on Kishida brilliantly. In many ways, he is footing the bill for the growing disconnect between what Abenomics promised and the situation Japan will face in 2024. The fact that compensation benefits are also trailing prices, generally speaking, amid a once-in-a-generation property bubble says it all.

The significant disparity between business pledges to raise wages and real gains is Kishida’s other issue. Earlier this year, labour unions were thought to possess scored a once-in-generation pay gain. The truth may end up being quite distinct.

” The’ shunto’ flower salary negotiations produced a three-decade report result, but real pay gains recorded across the economy have been disappointing”, says Stefan Angrick, top economist at&nbsp, Moody’s Analytics.

What’s more, he adds, “industrial manufacturing stalled in the second quarter and wage increases have headroom, both of which move the healing further into the range”.

All this has given the BOJ a circumstance of rate-hiker’s shame. More tightening measures are currently off the table, as Governor Kazuo Ueda’s group has already indicated following the rate increase decision on July 31.

The social formation in Tokyo is largely unknow where all this will lead. The list of possible Kishida descendants includes: Digital Minister Taro Kono, past Defense Minister Shigeru&nbsp, Ishiba, LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu&nbsp, Motegi, former Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, past Environment Minister Shinjiro&nbsp, Koizumi, and Economic Security Minister Sanae&nbsp, Takaichi.

As of now, none of the above is a distinct front-runner. In reality, the LDP election process will have the most intense political competition in Japan in recent memory.

The problem, of course, is that none of the apparent applicants is known to be an economical reformer. Given that the LDP has essentially wasted the next 12 years, which provided a window into Japan’s future, that is problematic.

No modern Chinese leader had a blueprint for an economy that voters approved of, great endorsement ratings, and plenty of time to put it into action when Abe won the league for a second time in 2012 ( Abe held business for almost eight years ).

Then, Kishida is paying the price for LDP silence over the last 4, 249 time. Yes, Kishida is to blame for his low 20 approval rankings. He is also suffering from the combined effects of the ruling party’s failure to improve Japan’s economic standing.

Kishida is n’t without his win. A big one is raising defense spending to a record 7.95 trillion yen ( US$ 54 billion ), or close to 2 % of gross domestic product. If Donald Trump is to get another term in the White House, this success may be beneficial. Trump agitated for allies to increase military spending during his first name as US senator, which spanned 2017 to 2021.

Despite the economic mood that wages are falling, prices is still at its peak. Below, Kishida did himself some favors by slowing-walking techniques to revitalize the reform process.

This includes some of Kishida’s unique ideas. In October 2021, Kishida promised a “new neoliberalism” to destroy Japan Inc. and redistribute money toward the middle category.

Kishida furthermore proposed to open a way for the US$ 1.5 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s largest for object, to finance a business bonanza. Along with tapping&nbsp, GPIF, Kishida sought to woo foreign investment.

But little came of” Kishidanomics”. The reality as Kishida bows out is that wage gains are bigfooted. This is largely a side-effect of Abenomics, which shaved a third off the yen’s value.

In addition to facilitating complacency, it made Japan particularly vulnerable to import inflation given the rise in food and energy costs. Japan has been particularly hit by the effects of Covid-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and rising Middle Eastern tensions.

Japan has now experienced the inflation it has been attempting to produce for 25 years. But it’s the “bad” kind that depresses consumer confidence and business investment. This predicament tarnished Kishida’s economic legacy.

Political finance scandals are never helpful, of course. However, Kishida is losing the sword because of an economy that has n’t kept up the lofty goals of the last ten plus years. Promises that the LDP’s next leader will struggle to keep as the US economy struggles and China’s economy slows.

On Wednesday, Kishida said, without irony, that&nbsp, “in order to fully emerge from a deflation-prone economy, we must accelerate wage and investment growth, and ensure we achieve our goal to expand Japan’s gross domestic product to 600 trillion yen ($ 4.10 trillion )”.

If only the LDP had done that, Japan might actually be booming. Additionally, it might not be required to elect its fourth prime minister in less than a year. Suffice to say, that to-be-named leader might be set up for economic success.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

China has a bond vigilante problem – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: August 14, 2024

In: Asia

Xi Jinping, the president of China, is competing with much success to convert stock bears to bulls. However, China has the same issue with foolish joy pushing long-term yields very low in the bond industry.

Officials are now trying to control the third-largest federal loan market in the world. On Monday, prices tumbled as the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) intervened assertively in the market. It was the worst moment in 17 times for China’s 10-year government prospects, sending yields up 4 base points.

At the same time as Xi favors a stable-to-firmer trade price, bond prices have recently fallen. The issue with Xi and the PBOC is that bond bull claim that the rally is supported by basics like negative forces and slowing growth, and that it still has room to grow.

Beijing’s regulators have constantly aimed to increase the volume of immediate funding. When combined with bonds and stocks, it made up only 31 % of the cultural finance overall last month, with bank loans accounting for the rest.

In the US, by contrast, the number is more than 70 %. China’s Communist Party intends to sell more long-dated sovereign bonds in order to aid efforts to accelerate progress in its US$ 17 trillion market.

PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng issued a warning about bubble problems as wobbly stock prices flooded into bonds and walls of money flowed from weak stocks in recent weeks.

In July, flows from Chinese securities “are largely explained by the lingering problems that investors see in the Foreign economy”, said Jonathan&nbsp, Fortun, an analyst at the Institute of International Economics.

It’s not all that surprising that Asia’s largest economy is experiencing significant domestic funding withdrawals. China’s direct investment liabilities, a balance of payments barometer of incoming foreign investment, fell by$ 14.8 billion in the second quarter year&nbsp, on year, only the second time the figure has turned negative, according to Bloomberg.

The first-half of 2024 saw a decrease of$ 5 billion, which would be the first net outflows since 1990. As a result of trade tensions between the US and Europe, China’s possess additional investment is declining while these diminishing capital flows are occurring.

All of this has resulted in Pan’s PBOC stepping up efforts to combat the friendship cows. The problem, though, is that the merchants testing Beijing are increasingly looking like so-called “bond police”, or activist investors who often take matters into their own hands.

Pan’s crew is about to discover what James Carville had warned the world about 30 years earlier. In 1994, Carville was a planner for US President Bill Clinton and is best known for his “it’s the economy, idiotic” phrase. That year, Carville made another popular study: that he’d like to be reincarnated as the&nbsp, bond&nbsp, business because” You you scare everybody”, he quipped.

The framework was balanced-budget conversations in Washington. Back then, tie investors were sensitive to the slightest tilt in Washington’s fiscal path. Carville’s reference to the influence of relationship vigilantes is now the issue for China as continent assets are being priced by traders.

A “hopeful flip” is starting to appear about what the PBOC is doing, according to Bill Bishop, who writes the Sinocism email. The goal may be to stress organizations to reduce their exposure before a more immediate fiscal stimulus package that would raise provides. However, the desire to invest in these bonds does not indicate assurance in the economy or the prospects for different asset classes.

Officials in China’s Jiangxi province advised commercial banks this week against paying back their government bond purchases. It’s daring to encourage institutions to rely on trades in a bid to lower risk.

The issue is that this could undermine Xi’s slow economic growth. Trust in Chinese bonds was decline even further if counterparties in relationship trades worry that further transactions might go wrong.

Very often in recent years, Xi’s authorities intervened in investment and foreign exchange trading, turning off international money managers. It’s not surprising that foreign transactions are dumping money into China’s economy in unprecedented amounts as a result.

Since April, the PBOC has frequently warned the business about price risks, according to Becky Liu, mind of Standard Chartered’s China macro strategy. ” This time, they want to take a strong enough message to the market, to greater recognize their’ comfort’ level of long-dated bonds, to minimize potential theoretical positions”.

Pan even cited the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in the US in early 2023 in a June press release. The concern is that Chinese regional banks may become alarmed by bond yield movements that are unpredictable.

The SVB in the United States has taught us that the central bank needs to monitor and evaluate the state of the financial market from a macro-prudential perspective, Pan said. ” At the moment, we must pay close attention to the maturity mismatch and interest rate risks that come with the large holdings of medium and long-term bonds by some non-bank entities.”

Entities in potential harm’s way include insurance companies, investment funds and other financial firms. That’s particularly the case as China flashes some Japan-like warning signs.

” The property woes are causing the weak credit demand.” In consequence, banks are forced to purchase more bonds because the interbank market is where money is trapped, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.

Just as in the case of Japan in the 1990s, says Ken Cheung, currency strategist at Mizuho Securities, low government bond yields can do more harm than good to an economy.

At least four Chinese brokerages put new restrictions on domestic government bond trading earlier this week. One even went so far as to halt dealing with certain maturities. This likely makes the threat of additional intervention” the main factor driving yields higher”

For now, the financial equivalent of” the sword of Damocles is falling”, says Tan Yiming, analyst at Minsheng Securities. Tan points out that “while the scale of any selloff&nbsp, in China&nbsp, bonds may not be substantial in the medium and long term due to the fragile growth momentum in China, chasing duration returns in China does not seem appropriate in our opinion.”

But risks abound going forward. With this so-called “asset famine” environment where high-yielding assets are in short supply persisting,” the&nbsp, bond&nbsp, bull market remains alive”, Tan says.

The concern for Xi and Pan is that the yuan would fall if the Chinese yields dropped even further. That could increase the risk of default for large property developers as they struggle to make payments on offshore bonds. Before the November 5 presidential election, where China has been a punching bag for both parties on the campaign trail, it may enrage US politicians.

Of course, China is n’t alone in fretting about bond vigilantes. The Bank of Japan is tussling with traders in Tokyo, which causes the yen to rise more quickly than Tokyo wants.

Meanwhile, the US’s record-breaking national debt, which is up to$ 35 trillion at a time of severe political dysfunction, could stoke the appetite of speculators. &nbsp,

The concern is that bond vigilantes will make a comeback in a troubled time rather than use deficit spending, according to analyst Tan Kai Xian of Gavekal Research. Geopolitical tensions and attempts to “waffear the dollar,” which are making non-US allies consider diversifying away from Treasuries, have increased this risk.

China’s difficulties would be less somber if its capital markets were prepared for the world’s prime time. To build trust among global investors, Team Xi must accelerate moves to improve liquidity.

It needs to develop new hedging tools, reform a sizable and opaque state sector, create a top-notch credit-rating system, and increase transparency to lessen risk and facilitate a more advantageous allocation of capital. These and other actions are essential to boosting the yuan’s reputation as a leading currency in trade and finance.

Some of China’s largest state banks recently received advice from regulators to gather more information about the owners of sovereign notes. The idea is to tighten the leash on speculators. Officers are meeting with financial institutions at the PBOC’s branch in Shanghai to discuss bond market risks.

According to Citigroup economist Xiangrong Yu,” the PBOC’s concerns about financial risks are valid.” ” Whether its moves are sufficient to lift the long-end yield appears uncertain”.

Fundamentals may at this point support the PBOC’s desire to see lower Chinese yields. According to Pictet Asset Management’s analysts,” the lack of low-volatility investment opportunities should make Chinese government bond investments attractive for many investors, especially at a time when the country’s stock market is still under pressure and the economy recovers only slowly.”

It implies that more than a lot of people think, authorities may have a harder time taming the market. &nbsp, Though heady demand for China’s government bonds dovetails with Beijing’s long-term agenda, it’s colliding with PBOC efforts to support the yuan.

Overall, the recent flattening of the yield curve has hampered Pan’s policy flexibility, which has fueled renewed rumors that more monetary easing is on the horizon. This explains why the PBOC’s tug-of-war with bond vigilantes is only just beginning, and why China wo n’t have a chance to win.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Moves (Page 15)

A DIFFERENT Century

Strong MOVES IN Guidelines

Gunn’s doubtful roots

Hottest issue on the planet

Community split

NOT JUST ABOUT THE SMELL

Expatriates IN SINGAPORE