Leftists’ excesses are turning more South Koreans conservative – Asia Times

South Korea is mired in political unrest as US President Donald Trump continues to implement his” America First” plan. The senate of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is causing perilous social unrest and stifling the regional balance of power.

This issue resembles the shocking impeachment of Park Geun-hye in 2016 in an alarming way. In both instances, the ruling, traditionalist People’s Party acted unfairly toward its own leader, which led to the passage of the senate resolution in the National Assembly.

Legacy internet fabricated and manipulated news to deceive the public, which had a significant impact on shaping public view. The Constitutional Court, which has been widely criticized as a “kangaroo jury,” violated due process by holding two trial sessions per week for President Yoon and four per week for President Park.

Also, doubts have arisen that Foreign citizens, disguised as Koreans, participated in pro-impeachment gatherings. These worries were made even more acute when the Chinese consulate officially forbade its citizens from participating in Korean political demonstrations.

A change in social interactions

Despite connections, important variations exist between the 2016 and current anti-impeachment activities. In 2016, the anti-impeachment demonstrations were disorganized and fundamental. Activists, mostly in their 50s and 60s, wore hiking equipment and waved Korean and US flags to communicate their pro-democracy position.

At the time, pro-impeachment liberals, mostly in their 30s and 40s, ridiculed them as obsolete and capable of good judgment. At the age of 45, Rhyu Si-min, a dramatic communist and former minister of health and happiness, reportedly observed that Koreans ‘ mental powers begin to decline after 60.

Today, however, the political environment has shifted. A considerable majority of Koreans aged 18–30 and 60–70 muscular traditional, leaving liberals in their 40s and 50s extremely isolated. Unfortunately, past Minister Rhyu, then 65, just contradicted his earlier claim by dismissing young liberal men in their 20s and 30s as “garbage”.

Asian girls, usually left-leaning, have furthermore gravitated toward conservative. The traditional parents ‘ online group” Right Terrace” has grown to 8, 500 people. The organization has since expanded its efforts to support different liberal causes, starting with providing heated trucks for march participants during wintertime protests.

The enlightenment of South Korea’s liberal movement

What has changed? Meetings with conservatives disclose a number of important reasons why they engage in engagement:

  1. Media disdain – They were aware of the biases that the legacy media had when they were impeached in 2016 but not imagined they would actually create the news.
  2. New advertising platforms – In 2016, YouTube was never a major media source, and the majority of people relied on traditional advertising. Today, other media play a crucial role.
  3. Financial decline under Moon Jae-in – The prior administration’s policies greatly impacted the economy, leading some to reevaluate their social stance.
  4. A reluctance to change – They refuse to been deceived once after one prosecution based on false information. Some believe that if this prosecution succeeds, South Korea’s politics will be at risk.

In this way, South Koreans are taking real rights of their politics. South Korea has a liberal democracy-style exterior composition but lacks its heart since its independence in 1948.

Then, the people are actively shaping their country in line with their personal background, traditions, and values. They are battling for their liberty, which is a necessary battle because it cannot be just granted or required. South Koreans are living examples of how a thriving politics may be owned by its citizens.

International consequences

On the global front, today’s problems varies from that of 2016. The US also believed that China could be incorporated into the current world order for peaceful coexistence at the time. Yet, the US has since abandoned its proposal plan, then viewing China as a strong competitor.

What are the worldwide consequences? It was destroy the area and cause a “doomsday effect” if isolationism is practiced by America Firsters today in the same manner as their post-World War I predecessors.

The US created the Washington Treaty System in 1921 to halt Chinese development and stop China from entangling. The US omitted it, though, in 1931 when Japan seizes Manchuria because it feared intervening was against its wishes. Essentially, this passive attitude gave Japan free grip in Asia.

Currently, as the US prioritizes its own passions, China has rapidly expanded its control over South Korea – slowly, quietly and secretly.

Two significant occurrences best illustrate this pattern:

  1. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ‘ ( 2002-2007 ) project aimed to rewrite history by claiming that the ancient Korean kingdom of Goguryeo was a part of China.
  2. The establishment of Confucius Institutes ( 2004–present ) – South Korea was the first country to host a Confucius Institute, a Chinese government-backed institution used to exert soft power and ideological influence.

With US assistance, South Korea has become a regional superpower. However, it remains resilient. If the US fails to stand solidly behind South Korea’s politics, China will eventually fill the vacuum.

Given China’s regional proximity, financial power and military fall and the growing Chinese people in South Korea, the danger is evident and immediate.

The struggle for politics in East Asia

In 1950, the US formulated National Security Council Document 68 ( NSC-68 ), marking a radical shift in policy. It stated that the global conflict was “momentous, involving the realization or loss of both this Republic and of civilization itself” and established a goal of” to fight local Soviet moves with local actions.”

Now, South Korea stands as the front defence against tyranny.

In a 2017 post for Asia Times, I claimed that the highest rates of crime were a result of a larger subterfuge plot by authoritarian forces.

The current issue suggests that story may become repeating itself, but South Koreans are more knowledgeable, more engaged, and more determined to stand up for what is happening. The battle for the future of democracy in East Asia may be recognized by the global community as a whole.

The risk of allowing authoritarian pushes to advance more is that the free world’s actions could threaten the stability of the entire region. The time has come to show a strong commitment to the politics of South Korea.

Hanjin Lew&nbsp is a former South Korean liberal party foreign official and a social commentator with an emphasis on East Asian matters.

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Why Trump and Ishiba aren’t ‘bromance’ material – Asia Times

TOKYO — Call it the financial bigotry of low objectives.

The first meeting between Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Donald Trump on Friday ( February 7 ) is a smashing success, according to Japanese and international media outlets.

Given how few, if any, objectives did Ishiba return to Tokyo with, or any indications that some might be forthcoming, it makes for unusual headlines. Of course, in the madly turbulent Trump 2.0 era, Trump’s decision to not attack a world leader on social advertising is its own little success.

However, the US president reminded Tokyo’s social elite that Japan’s business is in Trump’s path two weeks after Ishiba visited the Oval Office.

Trump’s statement that 25 % taxes are on the way for all steel and aluminum imports&nbsp, served up sounds of Japan’s knowledge during Trump 1.0 from 2017 to 2021. That was when Shinzo Abe, the then-Prime Minister, allegedly developed a strong friendship with the infamously contextual Trump.

Even now, the later Abe is frequently remembered as the” Trump whisperer”, the only president of a big politics who seemed able to tame Trump’s worst feelings. Yet this is merely half accurate, at best.

There’s no question Abe understood Trump’s needed for flattery. In November 2016, after Trump 1.0’s election win, Abe was the first earth president to jump to Trump Tower in New York for an audience. Abe also offered his support for the” America First” president in most ebullient words.

” I am convinced Mr Trump is a leader in whom I may have great trust” and” a relationship of trust”, Abe told reporters that morning.

Abe’s intuition didn’t time well. Despite Abe’s pleas, Trump exited the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ), the core of Tokyo’s effort to contain China. Nor did Trump 1.0 give “friend” Abe a cancellation on steel and aluminum fees.

Complicated gifts— including Abe giving Trump a US$ 3, 800 sport team — didn’t do the trick. Nor did Abe voting Trump for a&nbsp, Nobel Peace Prize. Worse, Trump boasted about the election while humiliating Abe in Liberal Democratic Party lines. And the ruling LDP was not all that happy that Kim Jong Un’s bizarre relationship with North Korean dictator Trump came at the expense of Japan’s national protection.

None of this kowtowing bought Japan little, if any, kindness from Trump. In truth, it took Ishiba completely 94 times to get an audience with Trump since November 5 — his opportunity to build an Abe-like “bromance”.

Despite the positive coverage that the Chinese and foreign media have received, Japan finds itself right in the collateral damage area. Sunday’s tax media makes that obvious enough. The fact that Trump 2.0 appears to be acting as though Ishiba’s Japan is more unnecessary than most people would like to say.

Narendra Modi’s attend to Washington this week attracted much more hype than Ishiba’s. Odd, considering Trump 1.0 had no better ally than Tokyo.

Despite its tendencies to criticize China, Trump 2.0 is most likely focused on achieving a significant Group of Two business deal with Xi Jinping, which is a part of the connect. So why is he hesitant to form a strong relationship with Ishiba.

Trump might never care because Joe Biden and Ishiba aren’t nearly as well-liked among citizens. With federal elections slated for July quick approaching, Ishiba‘s chances of keeping his work aren’t wonderful. Team Trump might not see the benefit of investing in a state that is irrational.

Either way, there’s almost no situation where Trump 2.0 goes also for Japan. On top of Trump’s levies on steel and aluminum, Japan is bracing for Trump’s comment to Taiwanese president Xi’s punitive measures following the 10 % tax Washington slapped on Beijing.

Chances are, too, that Trump’s anti-China industry experts are prodding him behind the scenes to reach Xi’s business equally hard.

On Friday, the same day he met Ishiba, Trump&nbsp, declared he would immediately announce a series of mutual taxes on any number of important buying partners. Morgan Stanley economists don’t see Trump halting with only 10 % tariffs on Chinese goods as a result.

They make the argument in a word that” we also anticipate that the US will impose more tariffs on China after this year as part of its larger business goals.” That, they note, may inspire a pattern of tit-for-tat trade restrictions.

According to Oxford Economics analysts, the” trade war is in the early stages, but the likelihood of additional tariffs is high.” In order to reflect this, Oxford Economics is currently adjusting its China development direction for 2025.

That spells major problem for Japan, as Ishiba’s main trading partner faces intensifying challenges. Retail sales are struggling at house despite the Bank of Japan’s commitment to keep up with its payment strengthening.

Since Donald Trump’s return to office, the world macro environment has become more dangerous, according to Masahiko Loo, a strategist at State Street Global Advisors. The possible combination of policies put forth by the new leadership is deemed to gain the US dollar, causing the yen to suffer even more. This makes it possible for the BOJ to consider lowering the plan price difference between the US and the US, thereby reducing the chance of a second rate increase.

The BOJ’s use activity score, adjusted for traveling, fell 0.5 % in December from November. It’s a” unexpectedly poor effect”, Angrick says. Consumption of durable and non-durable goods, meanwhile, dropped&nbsp, 1 % and 0.7 %, respectively. Across 2024, consumption fell 0.7 %.

The BOJ’s state that private consumption is increasing moderately is difficult to reconcile with the unsatisfactory run of data, according to Angrick. Real wages have been declining for nearly three years, straining the budgets of the households and having an impact on use. Consumption will increase with higher wages in 2025, but the treatment may take a while as inflation is still high.

This is even before Trump 2.0 introduces the taxes that major commerce officials like Peter Navarro have long advocated for in Asia. According to economists at UBS, the 60 % tariffs Trump has threatened to impose on Chinese goods had cut China’s around 5 % economic growth rate in half.

Economists advise staying objective about how little Ishiba really accomplished in Washington last week as this threat looms over Asia’s 2025 like a weapon of Damocles. This includes the unsatisfying “deal” he and Trump allegedly struck over US Steel.

Nippon Steel had been trying to acquire US Steel for about$ 14.9 billion. Previous President Biden vetoed the bargain, leaving Team Ishiba hoping Trump, Mr Art of the Deal, might say yes. To no avail. Instead, Trump said Nippon had “invest greatly” in US Steel without being granted a lot interest.

Some are reading it as a win-win for Trump and Ishiba. &nbsp,” Trump’s wonder choice … to support a Nippon Steel funding in US Steel represents a significant win for Ishiba”, says David Boling, analyst at Eurasia Group.

Boling notes that “while the facts remain ambiguous, this statement is a better-than-expected results for Ishiba, and it will likely increase his political sitting at home in the immediate future.”

Trump, Boling adds, had met with US Steel representatives on February 6,” which perhaps paved the way for the new approach. Ishiba has been outspoken in favor of the agreement, even urging Biden to approve it near the end of his presidency, unlike his predecessor Kishida Fumio.

As such, Boling says,” Ishiba will be in a good position to claim credit for smoothing the way for a compromise, which may also help to assuage concerns by the&nbsp, Japanese&nbsp, business community that the US was turning against FDI”.

Others are perplexed. Jeffrey Park, &nbsp, head of alpha strategies&nbsp, at Bitwise Asset Management, speaks for many when he notes:” Nippon Steel tried to buy US Steel last year but now instead found themselves investing billions into the US, which Ishiba actually spinned it as a’ successful’ meeting so then Trump sealed it with his signature kiss of a 25 % tariff”?

Ishiba is beginning a terrible year of trying to win over a US leader who is looking elsewhere. Additionally, Team Ishiba‘s decision to settle for a shadow of the deal Nippon wanted and appear to like it repeatedly causes it to be rolled over by Team Trump.

What happens, for example, when Trump demands Tokyo engage in another bilateral trade deal? Trump must be aware that the initial agreement with Abe was a failure.

The US-Japan trade agreement, which was announced on September 25, 2019, is “honored by President Donald Trump as a major breakthrough,” according to Jeffrey Schott, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, who is an expert on the subject. It actually only partially restores the advantages that Trump recklessly discarded when he pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP )

This economic-bigotry-of-low-expectations problem isn’t new for Japan. To this day, many economists argue that Abe’s 2012-2020 premiership, the longest in Japanese history, was a whirlwind of disruptive reforms that ended deflation and set the nation up for a vibrant future. In reality, Japan imports a lot of its inflation because of rising global commodity prices and an undervalued yen.

So far, wage gains aren’t keeping up with inflation. According to economists, this will likely result in higher wage increases this year. In this context, according to Barclays strategist Shinichiro Kadota,” we anticipate that Japan’s annual spring wage negotiations will result in another respectable 5 % increase this year while inflation will remain above the target of 2 %,” according to Barclays.

Also, Abe – and the three prime ministers who followed – made little progress in reducing bureaucracy, internationalizing labor markets, rekindling innovation, increasing productivity or empowering women. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average reached all-time highs in 2014 thanks to the success of efforts to increase shareholder value. However, larger efforts to boost Japanese wages and increase competitivity continue to be underwhelming.

The solution is for Ishiba to resurrect reforms in order to improve Japan’s economic standing. Leaders like Trump only respect strength. Team Ishiba would be wise to develop more domestic economic muscle to restore Japan’s global relevance rather than making any moves to placate Trump or offering trade concessions that will never satisfy him.

Rather than follow the Abe playbook, Ishiba, many observers say, might be better off leaning into the “anti-Abe” persona he had long cultivated. Perhaps a little more of the same enthusiasm as that of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in order. Instead of agreeing to Trump’s demands for trade concessions, both leaders are pushing back.

” Ishiba will be walking on thin ice and needs to woo Trump, but he lacks the subservient qualities that served Abe well and Trump smells desperation”, says Jeff&nbsp, Kingston, head of Asian studies at Temple University’s Tokyo campus.

Accepting that Ishiba’s Oval Office visit was nothing more than a positive experience would be the first step in recognizing that Japan needs a new direction in the Trump 2.0 era. Just adds to the possibility that Tokyo will be a good choice for the upcoming trade talks.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Gaza embodies Trump’s diplomacy of disruption and confusion – Asia Times

This year, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will scurry through the Middle East, bringing President Donald Trump’s tips for resolving the conflict in Gaza and pacifying the region.

But in advance of the journey, Rubio is running into a problem that vexed Trump’s foreign legislation crew members during his first 2017-2021 term in office: how to make sense of the government’s apparently off-the-cuff policy claims consular officials regarded as off-the-wall.

It has created confusion outside and inside the new leadership. To recap: On February 4, Trump announced a potential US invasion of the Gaza Strip that would contain moving all its residents to” a beautiful location to absorb people, permanently”, after which Gaza would be reborn as a Mediterranean” Riviera”.

He said he had already fingered Jordan and Egypt as the “beautiful area” for Gaza’s Palestinian transplants. ” We’re going to take over”, Trump wrote online. And it will make the Middle East a very proud place to live.

Rubio, who at the time was traveling in the Caribbean, tried to clarify. Judging that the war’s rain of destruction had left Gaza uninhabitable, he suggested residents would have to leave, but only for a while, to allow for rebuilding. ” To fix a place like that, people are going to have to live somewhere else in the interim”, he said.

Rubio insisted Trump was only referring to a US “willingness” to be responsible for fixing the place.

On February 6, Trump clarified Rubio’s clarification: By the time the US took over, the Palestinians would already have “been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region. They would actually have a chance to be happy, safe and free”.

The policy ping-pong suggests a return to the ambiguities and disagreements that characterized Trump’s first-term foreign policy leadership. Then, even hand-picked aides left in despair or were fired, including:

  • Rex Tillerson, an oil executive, was fired as Secretary of State because of frequent policy disagreements regarding Russia policy.
  • Over disagreements regarding Trump’s desire to meet with the Taliban ahead of a US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, veteran diplomat John Bolton, who served as the country’s national security advisor, was quoted as saying.
  • Joint Chiefs of Staff head James Mattis&nbsp, over Trump’s desire to abruptly pull US troops out of Syria that were supporting indigenous anti-regime forces.

Will Rubio make another mistake? His effort to make sense of Trump’s remarks was at odds with Trump’s notion of “disruptive diplomacy”, which he practices with the supposed goal of untangling policy paralysis among what he considers stale bureaucrats, worn-out allies and bloated international organizations.

When asked in a briefing what exactly the Gaza policy would entail, Trump’s spokesman Karoline Leavitt described it as an “out-of-the-box idea” to prevent” the same people pushing the same solutions to this problem for decades.”

It’s not clear that she was referring to Rubio, a Florida senator for 14 years. In any event, rather than explain how the new” Riviera” approach would work, she did detail what it would not entail: US troops in Gaza or American taxpayer money to fund reconstruction.

The evacuation-reconstruction proposal, according to Trump’s national security adviser Mike Waltz, is not something that allies in the area must support at all, but rather as a tool to spur their own fresh ideas. Trump’s announcement “is going to bring the entire region to come up with their own solutions”, Waltz predicted.

Arab countries, including Egypt and Jordan, have roundly rejected the notion of moving Palestinians out of Gaza.

Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s foreign minister, reported speaking with 11 Arab nations that had all “rejected any measures aimed at removing the Palestinian people from their land or encouraging their relocation to other countries outside the Palestinian territories.”

Any such actions would constitute a “flagrant violation of international law, an infringement of Palestinian rights, a threat to the region’s security and stability, and an undermining of opportunities for peace.” It was described as” a declaration of war,” according to a Jordanian official.

Israel, on the other hand, predictably welcomed the idea. This is” the first good idea I’ve heard.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Trump last week in Washington, and I believe it needs to be seriously pursued and implemented because I believe it will have a different future for everyone.

His comments ought not to surprise. For at least four decades, Netanyahu’s Likud Party and other nationalist right-wing organizations have been recruiting Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank.

It wasn’t immediately clear whether Trump’s remarks represented a well-devised strategy. Reporters in Washington requested from White House officials to produce a policy paper or direct the committee that had prepared the plans. The answer was there was neither, just Trump “laying it out to the American people”.

In reality, a similar idea had been broached in Trump’s orbit last year. A similar transfer idea was described as a real estate opportunity by his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, a businessman and real estate investor who served as Trump’s senior advisor during his first term but does not currently hold a formal position. &nbsp,

During an appearance at Harvard University, Kushner said Gazans could be resettled into Israel’s far southern Negev Desert, thus opening” Gaza’s waterfront property” for development that” could be very valuable”.

” It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but from Israel‘s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up”, Kushner said. ” But I don’t think that&nbsp, Israel&nbsp, has stated that they don’t want the people to move back there afterwards”.

Netanyahu isn’t waiting for Rubio’s arrival to put Trump’s ideas into practice. Any Palestinians who have been given an invitation to travel to any foreign country that would take them must leave immediately by land, sea, or air, according to his Defense Minister, Israel Katz, who issued an order to soldiers inside Gaza.

Gazans should have “freedom of movement and migration”, Katz said. Countries that have criticized Israel for the war were “obligated” to take in refugees, he added without elaborating.

The removal idea was first proposed by Netanyahu in 2012. His diplomats immediately questioned the United States and European governments about accepting tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians after Israel invaded Gaza in response to the deadly Hamas raid in southern Israel on October 7, 2023.

None agreed at the time.

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UK on horns of a mega-Chinese embassy dilemma – Asia Times

In the shape of a novel, enormous-sized embassy built for the heart of London, the United Kingdom is facing a Chinese conundrum. The consulate had probably boost Chinese purchase in the UK’s struggling business, but it also did put a strain on relations with the Donald Trump-led United States.

After Labour Party leader Keir Starmer promised Chinese President Xi Jinping in a conference last November that his government would assist in removing obstacles for the construction of a novel Chinese embassies at the Royal Mint Court, the discussion broke out. The Tower Hamlets Council had previously rejected the job application half in 2022 prior to this.

China’s Finance Ministry said on January 14 this year that China and the UK have reached 69 trade and financial contracts, which it projected may make about £600 million ( US$ 744 million ) of economic benefits for Britain over the next five years.

We want to exchange ideas and goods with everyone in the universe. Of course, we do, but that isn’t cost-free. During a protest against the novel Chinese military project on February 8, Tom Tugendhat, an antagonism Conservative Party MP, said,” It doesn’t appear for nothing.”

How much body would you be willing to have on your fingers for low products if you were looking at the fabric from Xinjiang or the batteries and solar panel made by prisoners? In this nation, we fought slavery 200 years ago, when we resisted honey produced by slaves on crops.

A sizable Embassy will be constructed close to the Tower of London, according to the Chinese authorities. Photo: Asia Times

Trump was considering how American diplomatic trade ties with the UK were being reviewed as a result of Starmer’s efforts to strengthen ties with China. &nbsp,

Trump announced in early February that he would impose levies on the European Union, which still has a significant trade deficit with the US. Trump claimed that he and Starmer had a great phone conversation in late January and that possible bilateral trade concerns may be resolved.

Trump may decide whether or not to take the mega-Chinese ambassador into account when he imposes tariffs on the UK.

In goods, the UK had a trade surplus of £2.5 billion ($ 3 billion ) with the US while the EU had a 156 billion euro ($ 161 billion ) surplus with the US in 2023. But in both goods and services, the UK’s trade surplus with the US amounted to £71 billion ($ 88 billion ) while the EU only had a trade surplus of 52 billion euros ($ 54 billion ) with the US. &nbsp,

British exporters will have to spend £6 billion to the US Customs every if the US imposes a 10 % tax on UK goods, given that the UK exported £60 billion of products there in 2023. &nbsp,

London opposition calling

On February 8, many thousand activists, primarily from Hong Kong and some from Taiwan, island China, Xinjiang and Myanmar, rallied in front of the two-centuries-old Royal Mint Court, which was bought by China in 2018 as a possible site for a new ambassador. &nbsp,

The fresh embassy and flat, if established, will be able to provide 250 team members. The Qing government’s present Chinese ambassador on Portland Street was established in 1877, and Sun Yat-Sen was being held there in 1896. &nbsp,

Some activists waited on the streets because the pavements weren’t wide enough. During the march, the Metropolitan Police reportedly clashed with some of the protest while closing off some of the intersections. Two people were reportedly detained by the police for refusing to move while standing on the streets. &nbsp,

YouTube video

]embedded material]

Robert Jenrick, the Shadow Secretary of State for Justice of the UK and a Conservative MP, stated in a statement at the rally page that” (MI5 Director General ) Ken McCallum said that China is the number one spying threat to our land.” &nbsp,

” When you have China stealing our intellectual property, spying on individuals of our government, sanctioning Members and intimidating, harassing American residents day in and day out, why would we allow them to have around the biggest mega-embassy and spy headquarters in Europe? No self-respecting state would do that”.

Another Liberal MP, Iain Duncan Smith, criticized China for bullying all the nations in the South China Sea and preparing to invade Taiwan. &nbsp,

Blair McDougall, an MP from the Scottish Labor Party, stated that if China wants to start an ambassador at the Royal Mint Court, it had close its” focus tent” in Xinjiang, unblock the income funds of Hong Kong residents, and release Hong Kong media mogul and activist Jimmy Lai from prison. &nbsp,

YouTube video

]embedded material]

The Taiwanese government has stated that there are only education facilities for Muslim Uyghurs to eliminate extreme emotions and develop job skills in Xinjiang. &nbsp,

As tens of thousands of Hong Kongers did not withdraw their pension cash after moving to the UK, according to McDougall,” the freezing money.” The Hong Kong government said these people’s British National ( Overseas ) visas cannot be legal proof of living abroad. &nbsp,

Catherine West, the UK Foreign Office minister, traveled to Hong Kong next November and met with a representative from the Chinese foreign government. She eventually revealed in an interview to former RTHK television network Stephen Vines that she had spoken with the Chinese national about Jimmy Lai’s arrest. He is a British citizen.

” Britain is however denied diplomatic access. We are aware of people who regularly attend Jimmy Lai’s trial, and officials at the president went to the tests, West said. We were relieved to see how well he actually looked in judge, and we were relieved to see how well he looked.

Vines said the Labour government highlighted 3Cs – cooperate, thrive and task, but it seems the target is only on cooperate. West asserted that she had a sincere conversation with the Chinese national and that she remained committed to the UK’s liberal and democratic norms. &nbsp,

Opposition opponents point out that despite the slow progress made with Jimmy Lai’s release, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves met with Taiwanese officials in Beijing next month and signed a number of new cooperation agreements.

Extraterritorial crime

Some Hong Kong residents expressed concern about a 2022 incident where many Chinese consulate staff members attacked some pro-democracy protesters outside the United States consulate in Manchester. One of the protesters was allegedly escorted into the compound and punched. The adversaries have since broken up in the UK. &nbsp,

Three men connected to the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office ( HKTEO ) in London were charged last year with attempting to break into a Hong Kong person’s home. While the jury case was continued, Matthew Trickett, one of the accused, was strangely found dead in a garden near his home.

Safeguard Soldiers, a non-governmental business, said there were at least three Chinese “police company channels” in the UK – in Croydon, Glasgow and Hendon.

Video footage from a group of pro-China campaigners harassing American pianist Brendan Kavanagh at a nearby train station in early 2024 went viral. Foreign spy Christine Lee apparently had ties to the troublemakers.

Prince Andrew, the younger sibling of King Charles III, was implicated in an alleged snooping plot involving a reputed Chinese agent, according to a decision from the British High Court in December.

Prince Andrew and alleged Chinese detective Yang Tengbo are seen together in China in 2017. &nbsp, Image: Pitch@Palace

According to the decision, the duke had” cultivated an unusual degree of faith” with Yang, who was prohibited from the nation on national security grounds, and was willing to engage in business relations with the alleged Chinese broker. Yang has denied being a Taiwanese detective.

From February 11 to February 18, the Towers Hamlets Council may conduct a public investigation into the construction of the Chinese embassies. &nbsp, China’s best minister, Wang Yi, may visit the UK in mid-February parallel with the investigation.

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a contribution. He is a Chinese blogger who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics. &nbsp,

Read: China building country’s biggest military base in training for US combat

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Japan PM Ishiba’s Donald Trump study sessions pay off at talks

24 days before
Shaimaa Khalil

Tokyo journalist

Reporting fromTokyo

It received that and some other assurances if Japan needed to be assured that the US was still its principal ally and friend in the increasingly unpredictable Asia-Pacific.

What was striking about the Trump-Ishiba gathering at the White House was the absence of any surprises.

This was neither provocative nor aggressive, as opposed to the majority of the domestic and global dynamics currently affecting Trump.

” On broadcast, he is quite frightening”, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba told reporters after Friday’s meeting.

” But when I met him, he was very earnest, quite powerful and strong bequeathed”, he added.

There’s a ton that ties Washington and Tokyo. Japan has been the major foreign investment in the US for five straight years, generating thousands of jobs. And there are 54, 000 US military officers stationed in Japan.

But President Donald Trump has given his friends and foes a lot to worry about: from tariff wars against China, Canada and Mexico to his US “ownership” of Gaza proposal and his sanctions against the International Criminal Court.

” Trump has made some chaotic decisions towards countries that believed themselves to be America’s buddies”, said Jeffrey Hall, professor at Japan’s Kanda University of International Studies.

There was a concern in Tokyo that the same situation might occur: that Trump may impose massive levies on Japan or scuttle a trade dispute. But that didn’t happen”, he added.

Trump’s” research lessons”

While Trump didn’t rule out levies against Tokyo, it wasn’t the main function of this meeting.

Ishiba went to Washington prepared. He’d studied. Absolutely. he held” research lessons” with staff and sought counsel from his father, Fumio Kishida.

On the golf course, he also had some assistance from the wife of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who had a close relation with Trump during his first administration.

Ishiba’s coursework paid out.

There weren’t many eye-raising moments like the numerous other US president’s presentations, aside from the one where Trump incorrectly called Nippon Steel” Nissan.”

In reality- as far as Japan is concerned- this conference was reassuring.

Getty Images US President Donald Trump, right, and Shigeru Ishiba, Japan's prime minister, shake hands during a meeting in the Oval Office of the White House.Getty Images

Both officials seemed to have met eye-to-eye on their locations ‘ strategies to increase business and military ushering in a “golden-era” of Japan-US relationships.

Ishiba announced his country’s plans to increase investment in the US to$ 1tn ( £806bn ), as the two economic powers rebalance trade relations.

Ishiba predicted that Japanese automakers would increase investment while Tokyo would increase imports of US-licensed liquefied natural gas ( LNG ).

This would have been tunes to Trump’s ear and a boost to his “drill, child, drilling” news from his opening statement.

In addition, the two men were able to agree on a contentious Nippon Steel matter.

Trump said Nippon would “invest heavily” in the Pennsylvania-based US Steel without taking a majority stake.

President Joe Biden had earlier rebuffed the Asian company’s attempt on national security grounds.

Keeping speaks easy

Japan could breathe easy knowing that there were enough boxes checked, but Ishiba’s primary goal was to meet with him for a specific reason.

The Japanese PM has been in a fraught political position at home – with his minority government keeping a weak grip on power after it was humiliated in October’s general elections when they lost their ruling majority.

Ishiba longed for victory.

The guy hasn’t really gained much confidence in his ability to perform well in front of a famous Trump.

According to Mr. Hall, “local media for weeks pumped up the notion that Trump would never achieve politely, that he was awkward, unlikable, and that he would take his lunchtime if he made it to Washington.”

However, Ishiba is leaving with what appears to be a lot of victory.

The former Chinese defense secretary is a seasoned politician known for lengthy speeches in parliament. Some Spectators claim that his statements confound some of his rivals and bore others.

But in a” Trump plan meeting” with his team, the biggest piece of advice he apparently got was:” Conclusion second. Keep it simple”.

Instead of confronting him,” Ishiba followed a playbook to impress Trump personally and provide him financial assets in the US,” said Mr. Hall.

Avoiding fight

There are several issues that Japan and the US could disagree on. Not least Trump’s proposal of a US takeover of the Gaza Strip, which sparked fierce criticism around the world.

Japan reiterated its long-standing position of supporting a two-state answer.

” We didn’t alter our stance”, said Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya last year.

Tokyo is also watching Trump’s trade war with China nervously.

However, Hall claimed that if Japan had help in the US-China trade war, it would not be drawn into it.

When it comes to China, Japan needs to hit a good compromise.

Beijing is Tokyo’s largest buying lover. One of the biggest expense destinations for Chinese companies is China.

Both the US and Japan are at odds with China’s growing control and confidence both domestically and internationally.

Not least with Chinese military’s now frequent and provocative moves in waters near Taiwan which Beijing sees as a renegade province.

In 2022, Japan, a pragmatist state, announced it would increase its military saving by 2027, citing challenges posed by China and North Korea, and saying it would acquire the ability to reach army bases.

The modifications made the most significant change to Japan’s protection method since it instituted a pragmatist law after World War Two.

With North Korea continuing its nuclear programme, South Korea in social collapse, and the continuous US-China conflict, Japan has yet again presented itself as America’s least challenging and even unobjectionable friend in the region.

Japan did prevent resembling Trump as much as possible. It will most likely be a’ yes’ friend”, said Hall.

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Trump 2.0: How to lose a trade war in just 18 days – Asia Times

Japan – So far, China has had a little better-than-feared encounter with the Donald Trump 2.0 president.

In reality, Xi Jinping’s Communist Party is probably relieved to discover Trump stifling world markets, torn political relationships, and destroying the soft power that America has come to rely on so much for decades to accumulate in just 18 days.

Elon Musk, a Trump benefactor, is filmed slinging dust into US institutions and using it to espionage sensitive data, affecting trust both domestically and abroad.

Increase in Trump’s concern over his disastrous trade war. Though Trump went away with 10 % levies on Xi’s business, that was just one-sixth of the 60 % he had threatened. At the same time, the Price Man-in-chief backed away from 25 % levies on Canada and Mexico. For today, at least.

But Wall Street now senses Trump’s retreat. The biggest player in the cutting of US companies a few days ago. Today, many investors are concluding Trump’s taxes leg competition is far more wood than bit.

The principles that surround Trump 2.0 and the fear of a stock market collapse and the backlash from the oligarchs who are trying to control the country are varied. Trump’s businessman entourage is evidently worried about their earnings.

It’s possible, too, that Trump’s advisers are warning him that threatening a massive trade war are one point, devastating the world market, and Wall Street with it, is quite another.

Since Trump’s surprise victory in November, Xi has been promoting China as a more robust power than the US as the protector of free business and international economic institutions. Beijing says it stands ready to protect modernization from” serious problems” amid a “new period of volatility and shift” and disruption.

CEOs gathered in Peru for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) summit in November told Xi,” Dividing an interdependent world is going back in history.”

Xi was harkening again to 2017, when a turbulent Trump 1.0 White House was likewise spooking global markets. Xi in Davos stated to CEOs that trade wars and protectionism may result in “injury and damage to both sides” at the time.

However, according to Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,” there is now Washington is located in the scheme equivalent of Tornado Alley, battered by a storm of confusing and norm-shattering professional commands that promise to upend eight years of US internationalism.”

Plan experts, Patrick says, “have become storm-chasers, tracking down the latest offense in the hopes of answering a simple question: Just what is the White House hoping to accomplish with all this conflict”?

No recent step tells us more about Trump’s “disdain for America’s global reputation” than the “reckless and arguably illegal and unconstitutional effort to dismantle” the US Agency for International Development ( USAID ) without legislative approval,” Patrick says.

The episode exposes Trump’s contextual relativism, which recognizes that the US has no purpose in world affairs. These misplaced choices may harm Americans themselves.

Yet as Trump complains about China’s supremacy, he’s paving the way for Asia’s biggest economy to grow its effect at America’s price. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) expands its colossal infrastructure investment strategy around the world, especially in the Global South, by ending US development aid.

” None of these individuals has any thought of how the universe works,” says Stuart Stevens, a lifelong Republican strategist whose latest book is titled” The Conspiracy to Stop America.”” The country’s greatest authority wants to have as little impact as Liechtenstein. ” Either by design or unwittingly, Stevens says, the Trump-Musk label group is” going to give away National energy” to China and Russia.

Yun Sun, director of China programs at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based consider container, adds that any” decay of US management and credibility does gain China.”

That goes, also, for Chinese goods. There is confusion over why Trump’s Treasury Department gave Musk exposure to the US national payments system amid the legislation conflict in Washington.

Owners and Eastern central banks sat on hills of US Treasury securities are already sufficiently concerned about Washington’s persistently high inflation and US$ 36 trillion debt load. Then they may be concerned about a number of tech bros scurrying around Washington’s financial system for enigmatic reasons.

If Tokyo, which holds more than$ 1.1 trillion of US Treasuries, or Beijing, with$ 770 billion, doubt the sanctity of the reserve currency, it might result in titanically large debt sales and surging yields.

Though the economic fallout would rattle China’s 2025, the longer-term gains may be worth the short-term problems. It may, at a minimum, perform into Xi’s fingers as he works to export the yuan. The dollar’s influence on global commerce and finance increased over the past ten years ‘ Xi’s party.

On top of Trump’s extreme strength grabs, he’s pushing to implement another multi-trillion-dollar duty cut, wrestle decision-making power away from the Federal Reserve and apparently degrade the dollar. The odds of credit rating organizations allowing US debt to remain unchanged are decreasing.

Trump’s MAGA plan to end America’s low-cost, high-impact foreign aid programs to help fund tax cuts for the ultrawealthy is a blow to US influence abroad, according to Alan Yu, senior vice president at the Center for American Progress think tank.

Trump, Musk, and their allies are satisfied, but the aid attacks have also stifled trust and uncertainty among American allies and partners, which the United States relies on to maintain world security, Yusays.

The programs Trump is pausing, Yu explains”, strengthen the capabilities of partner nations, deter adversaries, and reduce the need for direct military intervention.”

In particular, he adds, the status of assistance to Ukraine, critical to sustaining Kyiv’s war effort against Russia, remains ambiguous. Military assistance to Taiwan, which relies on US training and equipment to deter Chinese aggression, has also been thrown into uncertainty.

To be sure, many observers think the tariffs will eventually be imposed. The justification is that you don’t talk about the power of trade restrictions and how crucial they are to rebuilding America. Also, the ways in which Xi is pushing back may have Trump’s gang of anti-China advisors, including Peter Navarro, apoplectic.

As such, says Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, chief US economist at advisory Macro Hive”, tariff increases are likely to proceed on two tracks. The long-term track is broad-based, gradual and meant to generate revenues and support reshoring. Meanwhile, the’ opportunistic’ track is country-specific, aggressive and meant to exert leverage on trade partners.”

Dwor-Frecaut notes that during his confirmation hearing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained that tariff policy had three objectives: revenue generation, reshoring and leverage in trade negotiations”. Because the goals for generating revenue and reshoring are long-term, permanent tariff increases are required. Also, this is likely to lift prices, possibly inflation, and lower growth.”

Thickening the plot, Xi’s party struck back with tit-for-tat tariffs on US energy, manufacturing and minerals while hitting Google with an antitrust investigation. Overall, economists and analysts say, it’s a reasonable and proportional response that leaves the door open to future negotiations.

According to Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst for Capital Economics China, “fairly modest” is how it sounds.

However, Ian Bremmer, CEO of Eurasia Group, believes that the prospect of a market-wrecking conflict between Washington and Beijing fundamentally misunderstands both the scope of Trump’s strategy and the nature of US-China relations during the Xi era.

According to Bremmer,” the most geopolitically significant relationship in the world is fundamentally adversarial and devoid of trust.” The Biden administration made a significant effort to create and maintain 25 high-level bilateral channels across the cabinet as the only reason it remained comparatively stable in 2024.

Team Trump, by contrast”, has no interest in putting in that kind of painstaking diplomatic work for a relationship they view as fundamentally adversarial,” Bremmer says”. Without those safeguards, there will be few management and communication strategies to stop even minor incidents from developing into major crises.

Can Trump get past this reality and coerce Beijing into signing a deal? Bremmer thinks not.

” The problem, “he says”, is that his strongman tactics only work against much weaker countries. When he threatens Colombia and Panama with tariffs, they have no choice but to capitulate because, in the event that their economies would collapse, they would have to. However, hitting down is simple. China is a completely different game. It has the power and leverage to retaliate against the US in ways that other nations cannot. And punch back it will.”

According to economist Alicia Garcia Herrero at Natixis, the question that no one can answer is whether Trump might respond to Beijing’s initial retaliation in broader ways. If]Trump ] doubles down, China will have a problem,” she notes.

Agatha Kratz, economist at the Rhodium Group, tells AFP that” given the current economic downturn, China cannot afford – and does not want – to impose excessive trade barriers. China’s economy is in a fragile state, and this limits its ability to act freely. Beijing cannot afford to take reckless actions, and I don’t think it wants to.”

The bottom line is that no one really knows, so perhaps it’s best to remain agile, says Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management”. Be patient and opportunistic – there may be a time to be aggressive, but it isn’t upon us yet,” Ma notes.

According to Ma,” President Donald Trump may be willing to let the US suffer a lot of economic pain in an effort to realize his stated goals of reducing trade deficits, bringing jobs to the US, and improving border security.”

We still anticipate that the US will impose more tariffs on China later this year as part of its larger trade goals, according to Morgan Stanley’s economists, which will only lead to further retaliatory actions from China.

Part of the issue is Trump’s frustration that efforts to date haven’t slowed China’s trajectory. That goes both for Trump 1.0 policies and those of Joe Biden’s White House”. From DeepSeek to Huawei, US tech restrictions on China are backfiring,” says Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics.

In fact, Choyleva argues, US efforts to curb China’s technological advancements may be having the opposite effect: accelerating China’s move upmarket toward self-reliance and innovation.

Huawei, Huawei, and others are providing case studies on how China Inc. is developing workarounds for US chip and other tech export controls. Along with creating genuine obstacles, decoupling efforts are incentivizing domestic innovation.

China has other opportunities ripened by Trump’s tariffs. For one thing, they’ll cost America’s friends, particularly staunch US allies Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and certain governments in Southeast Asia.

Hard feelings between Washington and top Asian democracies could generate greater distrust, increasing China’s appeal as an alternative. It has given Xi the moral support she needs, and it has made her appear more committed to capitalist principles than tycoon Trump.

Xi’s party is still benefiting from Trump’s unilateral withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, which later became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( CPTPP ) without the US.

Trump 2.0, in contrast, is clinging to misguided interests in bilateral trade agreements over wider efforts to establish a Chinese military fortress.

In particular, Carnegie’s Patrick notes, the demise of USAID is an early win for Beijing. Many innocent people around the world will pass away if the agency does. As for the United States ‘ continued reputation as a nation that values its own self-interest and values itself in international affairs, Patrick concludes,” so will it do so.”

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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When tariffs make good common sense – Asia Times

The&nbsp, hazard of US tariffs&nbsp, on Canada and Mexico seems to have abated for today. Both nations made mainly symbolic commitments to border security, which led to Trump’s decision to postpone the tariffs by one month. This suggests that the taxes may be delayed or completely canceled.

This is the least negative results. Although the majority of the world is euphoric, the simple knowledge that Trump may change his mind and impose tariffs on America’s important allies and trading partners at any time will chill business investment. &nbsp, Bloomberg information:

Over a furious 72 hours, President Donald Trump’s danger of punishing fresh tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China …sent manufacturing organizations scrambling for cover…Even after the senator put a&nbsp, one-month hold&nbsp, on the Mexico and Canada tasks on Monday, professionals are still very much on watch for extra taxes …

It was …frantic for Randy Carr, who runs&nbsp, World Emblem, the biggest global manufacturer of emblems and patches …” We have had to suspend every capex project we have for the next 24 months until we better understand the trade situation”, Carr said… World Emblem also paused hiring plans, said the executive, whose company has 1, 300 employees between production bases in the US and Mexico. ” It’s suggestive of the changes we had to make during Covid-19″.

Tariffs benefit private manufacturers by shielding them from foreign competitors, but they also hurt them by raising the price of imported components. One of the two main issues with taxes is that they raise customer costs, which is the other.

Does this imply that tariffs are usually unfair? Some people praised the benefits of free trade in response to Trump’s turbulent tariff announcement, even some Democrats who are typically wary of liberal arguments.

But after years of underdevelopment, for fanatic explanations are improbable to carry much weight. Any ideological blanket denunciation of tariffs will likely face that deep reservoir of ( somewhat justified ) anger. It seems like free trade was America’s sucker’s bet.

In reality, there&nbsp, are &nbsp, some reasonable explanations for when taxes may be useful. These concepts have been the subject of numerous documents written about them that economists have known for centuries. The reasons for tariffs are often discussed in public conversations because economists frequently have an overt attachment to the concept of free trade.

I therefore decided to go over some of these. But notice that all of them are claims for&nbsp, targeted&nbsp, taxes, instead of the large, across-the-board tariffs that Trump threatened against Canada and Mexico.

Federal safety concerns

The most important rationale for taxes, as I see it, is national security. If a war breaks out between the US and China, the US will own to create a whole lot of munitions and weapons quite fast— especially drones, ships, missiles, and so on. It’s crucial to have existing human industries that can be immediately repurposed for defense functions in order to accomplish that, just like automakers built planes and vehicles in World War 2.

A nation’s manufacturing base will collapse and die in a lengthy standard modern war against a rival nation. For instance, if the US finds itself without battery factories — both on its own soil or in a secure area of the country — it won’t be able to produce the FPV drones that have come to be the standard tool on Ukraine’s battlefields. That could be devastating. Therefore, it is important to keep some power production power in the US, Canada, and/or Mexico.

Today, Xi Jinping knows this. One thing he can do is try to crush the US producing industries by outpacing them with targeted surges of cheap exports, as he almost certainly does if he wants to undermine the US. It’s quite possible that this is one motivation behind China ‘s&nbsp, sudden wave of manufactured exports, which is being promoted with below-market bank loans, government grants, and a host of other laws.

Taxes are a means of preventing this forced underdevelopment method. If Xi unexpectedly decides to flood America with affordable Chinese batteries, the US may respond very quickly by raising taxes on Chinese chargers, canceling out the impact of China’s incentives. In reality, this is what Biden did last year, when&nbsp, he levied extremely large tariffs&nbsp, on a variety of China’s proper business.

However, take note that Trump’s tariff proposals for Mexico and Canada don’t exactly suit this technique. Most important, putting taxes on US allies doesn’t protect against forced underdevelopment by China, in truth, it makes the problem&nbsp, worse, by disrupting North American supply stores and raising prices for US manufacturers.

It also makes the US dollar value, making American imports less aggressive. This is a common reason why intended tariffs like Biden’s are more powerful than large, across-the-board tariffs like the ones Trump is threatening.

In fact, dollar appreciation is exactly what happened in 2018-19 after Trump’s initial tariffs, and it’s exactly what’s happening now:

So if you want tariffs for national security reasons, Trump’s proposed tariffs on US allies are &nbsp, exactly the wrong kind.

Our companies vs their companies

Economists don’t typically think about national security, instead, they tend to think good policies are those that produce more growth, more employment, and so on. And if those are your objectives, there are definitely still some reasons why tariffs might be a good thing— at least, from a single nation’s perspective.

The most common reason is all about&nbsp, national champions. Real-world markets aren’t perfectly competitive — some big companies make a ton of profit, by leveraging what economists call&nbsp, increasing returns to scale.

Increasing returns to scale are just anything that gives big companies a cost advantage over smaller ones — maybe network effects, or big fixed costs, or a” superstar” effect that draws in top talent, etc. In a world of increasing returns, the winning companies make a lot of profit, and smaller companies don’t.

A country might, therefore, be able to increase its wealth by using tariffs to guard its own “national champion” companies. The idea is basically to block foreign companies ‘ domestic markets by using tariffs to lower their scale.

This will make it easier for your own nation’s national champions to outshine their international rivals, resulting in greater profit for them on the market. This is called” strategic trade” policy.

James Brander and Barbara Spencer&nbsp, pointed out&nbsp, this argument for tariffs back in the 1980s. Paul Krugman, who helped develop the leading theory of increasing returns and trade, &nbsp, summarized&nbsp, their work on this topic in 1987:

If a nation can somehow make sure that the lucky firm that receives the most money is domestic rather than foreign, it can raise its national income at the expense of other nations. James Brander and Barbara Spencer uncovered in two well-known papers that, when appropriate, government policies like export subsidies and import restrictions can deter foreign companies from entering lucrative markets.

Government policy here serves much the same role that” strategic” moves such as investment in excess capacity or research and development ( R &amp, D) serve in many models of oligopolistic competition —hence the term” strategic trade policy” .…]A ] t least under some circumstances a government, by supporting its firms in international competition, can raise national welfare at another country’s expense.

In fact, there’s some evidence that free trade can make a country poorer by destroying its national champions. This is from&nbsp, Sampson et al. ( 2022 ):

Import liberalization lowers import costs and boosts competition. However, with scale economies, import liberalization can also reduce domestic industry’s productivity by reducing its scale, leading to lower exports.

Evidence from the permanent normalization of US trade relations with China in the early 2000s, as this column demonstrates, demonstrates that increased Chinese import competition did indeed reduce US exports through this channel, implying the existence of industry-level economies in the US.

The point is that America would have been a little wealthier if the US had started importing tariffs to protect some very oligopolistic industries from Chinese competition in the early 2000s.

But again, this argument for tariffs doesn’t apply to Trump’s recent efforts. First of all, it only applies to those sectors where there are few winners and a lot of profits to be made. That implies, again, that&nbsp, targeted&nbsp, tariffs are the way to go.

Broad, across-the-board tariffs will dilute the effect, through exchange rate appreciation. Trump would have imposed tariffs on agriculture, which is a highly competitive sector with few profits to compete for. Simply put, this strategy does not align with the theory of strategic trade.

Second, you probably don’t want to start a trade war with your most significant allies and trading partners if you want your national champions to be able to scale up. They will almost certainly retaliate, denying market access to your own top companies.

If their attempts to buy off Trump with symbolic concessions failed, Canada and Mexico would likely resort to retaliation measures. The top companies in America would lose market share and suffer in their fierce competition with Chinese rivals as a result.

And finally, if you want to increase your national champions ‘ scale, you can probably get a lot more mileage out of&nbsp, export subsidies&nbsp, than tariffs. Tariffs can hurt national champions by denying them access to cheap production inputs, export subsidies, although they cost more in fiscal terms, don’t have this problem.

The American way of protecting the infant industry

In this recent blog post by Anthony Pompliano, many people have questioned my response to the pro-tariff arguments. Please click on the link.

Some of Pompliano’s arguments in this piece are simply bad. For example, he cites the factory construction boom and&nbsp, the reshoring of the solar industry &nbsp, as examples of American industrial successes driven by tariffs.

However, in both of those cases, while tariffs might have been a significant factor, we didn’t really see much progress until Biden introduced industrial policy through the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

Pompliano also contends that tariffs are less deflationary than income taxes, which is generally true if the subject is the same tax rate. But if you’re talking about raising a set amount of&nbsp, revenue&nbsp, from either income tax or tariffs, then the tariffs are almost certainly much worse.

This is because tariffs are a lot easier to&nbsp, avoid&nbsp, than income taxes, you just buy similar products made elsewhere. Because tariffs are relatively easy to avoid, they don’t raise a lot of revenue. And so if you want to use tariffs to raise, say,$ 1 trillion a year for the US government, you’re going to need to set the tariff rates&nbsp, very&nbsp, high. And that will be very distortionary.

But anyway, Pompliano’s strongest argument is that tariffs for infant industries were useful for America’s economic development back in the 19th century:

Tariffs are widely credited as&nbsp, an essential tool&nbsp, for the success of the Industrial Revolution, which created the American economy we know today…Historical figures like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Henry Clay, James Monroe, Abraham Lincoln, William McKinley, and Theodore Roosevelt were all outspoken supporters of tariffs as a necessary tool for America to thrive. Give us a protective tariff, and we shall have the greatest nation on earth, according to the well-known Lincoln quote on tariffs.

This is what economists refer to as an “infant industry argument.” Basically, American leaders in the early days of the republic wanted to promote the creation of new industries in the US Alexander Hamilton wrote his famous&nbsp,” Report on Manufactures” &nbsp, in 1791.

He claimed that tariffs would enable domestic champions to have the same level of scale as foreigners, which was in line with the strategic trade theory developed a century later. Hamilton added that shielding brand-new American industries from competition would give them more time to “learn” about how to compete with established foreign rivals.

In some cases, infant industry arguments are plausible; Pompliano certainly exaggerates when he claims that tariffs built America, but they were likely a result of helping some important American industries start their own businesses rather than being replaced by floods of British imports.

But here too, the specifics of Trump’s plans are at odds with the economics. Once again, the economic argument is for&nbsp, targeted tariffs&nbsp, in very specific cases— in this case, new industries facing competition from big foreign incumbents. Trump’s across-the-board tariffs are almost entirely targeting&nbsp, non-infant&nbsp, industries. ( Also, in general, &nbsp, import quotas are more helpful&nbsp, for infant industries than tariffs. )

Two more speculative arguments

So those are the three basic arguments in favor of tariffs — national security, national champions, and infant industries. All of them are pretty solid arguments, though they all imply that Trump’s preferred approach to tariffs is highly suboptimal. However, there are still some intriguing tariff debates that merit discussion.

One of these is&nbsp, Michael Pettis ‘ theory&nbsp, that tariffs on China will help to correct global trade imbalances, and could force China to change its economic model to a more consumption-focused one. I discussed this concept here.

Basically, I think this makes sense as a&nbsp, China-specific political-economic&nbsp, argument. The idea is that Chinese companies will quickly become unprofitable ( due to overproduction and over competition ) if tariffs force them to concentrate more on their domestic market.

This unprofitability could prompt China’s government to reduce its subsidies for industrial overproduction. That’s my personal interpretation of Pettis ‘ ideas, and I’m not sure how plausible it is, but it’s certainly an interesting thought. I would note, however, that this is a purely&nbsp, China-specific&nbsp, idea, rather than a justification for tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Another theory, &nbsp, courtesy of Sam Hammond, is that tariffs are the first step in a forced de-dollarization of the global economy:

The US intentionally undermines the stability of the dollar as a trade currency by imposing universal tariffs, which I believe is the case because disruption forces other nations to consider reducing dollar holdings or considering alternative reserve arrangements, thereby enabling a monetary reset.

I don’t put much credence in this theory. The reason, as I’ve explained a number of times, is that tariffs make the US dollar more expensive, not less.

Anyway, I believe that national security, as well as the traditional economics justification for tariffs, such as strategic trade and infant industry protection, are still the strongest arguments in favor of tariffs. And every single one of them raises doubts about the tariffs Trump is proposing. Trump’s threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico are incredibly unlikely to be those that are, even if some tariffs are acceptable in some circumstances.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Myanmar’s Shwe Kokko: Inside a city ‘built on scams’

47 seconds ago
Jonathan Mind

South East Asia journalist

Jonathan Mind/ BBC Workers in blue shirts sit amid construction rubble in front of tall buildings near a crane.Jonathan Mind/ BBC

The large, beautiful structures that emerge from the meadows on the Myanmar part of the Moei creek are so jarring that you find yourself squirming to make sure you haven’t imagined them.

Eight years ago there was nothing over there in Karen State. A long-running legal war and a few roughly-built concrete structures have made this region of Myanmar one of the poorest places on earth, all combined with trees. But now, on this area along the border with Thailand, a little town has emerged like a dream. It is known as the Golden Raintree or Shwe Kokko.

It is accused of being a city built on schemes, home to a profitable yet lethal connection of scams, money-laundering and human trafficking. She Zhijiang, the person responsible for it, is awaiting extradition to China while he is imprisoned in Bangkok.

But Yatai, She Zhijiang’s firm which built the city, paints a very unique perspective of Shwe Kokko in its promotional videos – as a resort town, a healthy holiday destination for Taiwanese tourists and shelter for the super-rich.

Shwe Kokko’s story is also one of the unbridled ambition that has swept away from China in recent years.

She Zhijiang dreamed of building this glittering city as his ticket out of the shadowy world of scams and gambling which he inhabited.

But by aiming so high, he has attracted Beijing’s attention, which is now eager to stop the fraudulent activities along the Thai-Myanmar border, which are increasingly targeting Chinese citizens.

Publicity about the scams is also hurting Thai tourism – Thailand is shutting down power to compounds over the border, toughening its banking rules and promising to block visas for those suspected of using Thailand as a transit route.

Shwe Kokko has been stranded in Myanmar’s post-coup, war-ravaged country, unable to attract the investment and visitors it needs to continue.

Yatai is trying to fix the city’s sinister image by allowing journalists to see it, holding out hope that more favourable reporting might even get She Zhijiang out of jail.

So they sent the BBC to Shwe Kokko.

Inside Shwe Kokko

Finding the location is challenging.

Ever since construction began in 2017, Shwe Kokko has been a forbidden place, off-limits to casual visitors.

Access became even more difficult as the civil war in Myanmar grew even more after the military coup in 2021. It takes three days from the country’s commercial hub Yangon – through multiple checkpoints, blocked roads and a real risk of getting caught in armed skirmishes. Crossing Thailand takes only a few minutes, but careful planning is required to avoid Thai police and army patrols.

She Zhijiang’s colleagues took us on a tour, highlighting the newly-paved streets, the luxury villas, the trees–” Mr She believes in making a green city”, they told us. Wang Fugui, who claimed to be a former police officer from Guangxi in southern China, was our guide. He ended up in prison in Thailand, on what he insists were trumped-up fraud charges. He became one of his most dependable lieutenants there after getting to know She Zhijiang.

Getty Images Thai military personnel keep watch atop armoured vehicles along the Moei river on the Thai side, next to the 2nd Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge, in Thailand's Mae Sot district on April 12, 2024. Getty Images
Jonathan Mind/BBC A market in Shwe Kokko. Two women walk along a wet brown road, one pushing a wooden cart with white flowers in it. Their outfits are shades of pink. Shops selling baskets and dresses line the street on one sideJonathan Mind/BBC

At first glance, Shwe Kokko has the appearance of a provincial Chinese city. There is a constant procession of Chinese-made construction vehicles going to and from building sites, and the signs on the buildings are written in Chinese characters.

Yatai is vague about the tenants of all its buildings, as it is about many things. They told us that “rich people from many nations rent the villas.” And what about the businesses? ” Many businesses. Hotels, casinos”.

However, the majority of the people we saw were local Karen, who are one of the ethnic minorities in Myanmar, who visit Shwe Kokko daily for work. We saw very few of the overseas visitors who are supposed to be the customers of the hotels and casinos.

Yatai claims Shwe Kokko has stopped a number of scams. It has put up huge billboards all over town proclaiming, in Chinese, Burmese and English, that forced labour was not allowed, and that “online businesses” should leave. However, local people quietly informed us that the scam business was still operating.

Starting a decade ago in the unchecked frenzy of Chinese investment on the Cambodian coast, then moving to the lawless badlands of Myanmar’s border with China, the scam operators have now settled along the Thai-Myanmar border. The Myanmar military and a roiling gang of rebel armies and warlords are battling it out for control of Karen State around them.

The scams have grown into a multi-billion dollar business. They involve tens of thousands of workers who are kept in locked-down buildings where they defraud people all over the world of their savings.

Some work there willingly, but others are abducted and forced to work. Those who have fled have enslaved and suffered horrifying experiences. Some have come from Shwe Kokko.

We had the opportunity to speak with a young woman who had recently worked in one of the scam centers. She had not enjoyed it and been allowed to leave.

She claimed that her role in the modeling team, which consisted primarily of attractive young women, was to attempt to establish an intimate online relationship with potential victims.

” The target is the elderly”, she said. You begin a conversation by saying,” Oh, you look just like one of my friends.” Once you make friends you encourage them by sending pictures of yourself, sometimes wearing your night clothes”.

Then, she explains, the conversation shifts to get-rich-quick schemes, such as crypto investments, where the women claim that’s how they made a lot of money.

” When they feel close to you, you pass them on to the chatting section”, she says. The chatting partners will continue to communicate with the client to convince them to purchase shares of the crypto company.

During our brief time in Shwe Kokko we were only allowed to see what Yatai wanted us to see. Even so, it was obvious that the scams continue to exist and are likely still the city’s main industry.

Our request to see inside any of the newly-built office buildings were turned down. They kept telling us that those were private. We were escorted at all times by security guards seconded from the militia group which controls this part of the border. We were not permitted to enter the buildings ‘ construction sites or the exteriors. Many of the windows had bars on the insides.

Jonathan Mind/ BBC A military vehicle inside the city. Armed men in fatigues stand on the back of a black pickup truck driving down a road with shops on it, one called Family Fashion ShopJonathan Mind/ BBC

The young woman who used to work in a scam center said,” Everyone in Shwe Kokko knows what goes on there.”

She dismissed Yatai’s claim that it no longer permitted scam centres in Shwe Kokko.

That is a lie, I tell you. There is no way they don’t know about this. In those high-rise buildings, the entire city is doing it. No-one goes there for fun. Yatai has no way of knowing.

Who is She Zhijiang?

She Zhijiang reportedly received a call from Bangkok’s Klong Prem Prison, where he is currently imprisoned, saying,” I can promise that Yatai would never accept telecom fraud and scams.”

Yatai wanted us to hear from the man himself, and hooked up a ropey video link. We had to rely on Mr. Wang to answer our questions and keep our eyes off the prison guards because only Mr. Wang could be seen conversing with him.

Not much is known about She Zhijiang, a small-town Chinese entrepreneur who Beijing alleges is a criminal mastermind.

He left school when he was 14 and started learning computer coding in Hunan province, China, a poor village. He appears to have moved to the Philippines in his early 20s and into online gambling, which is illegal in China. He began to make his money at this point. In 2014 he was convicted by a Chinese court of running an illegal lottery, but he stayed overseas.

He managed to obtain Cambodian citizenship by investing in gambling companies there. He has used at least four different names.

He and a Karen warlord Saw Chit Thu, who controls the Moei River in Myanmar, made a deal in 2016 to create a new city together. She Zhijiang would provide the funds, the Chinese construction machinery and materials, while Saw Chit Thu and his 8, 000 armed fighters would keep it safe.

Yatai’s glitzy videos depicted a high-rise wonderland of hotels, casinos, and cyberparks, promising a$ 15 billion ( £12 billion ) investment. Shwe Kokko was described as part of Xi Jinping’s Belt-and-Road Initiative or BRI, bringing Chinese funds and infrastructure to the world.

In 2020, China publicly split its support for She Zhijiang, and the Myanmar government opened an investigation into Yatai, which was operating casinos before they were made legal in Myanmar.

Courtesy Yatai She Zhijiang wearing a black leather jacket and black trousers at Tiananmen Square, in front of yellow barricades Courtesy Yatai

She Zhijiang was detained and imprisoned in Bangkok in August 2022 following a Chinese request to Interpol. He and his business partner Saw Chit Thu have also been sanctioned by the British government for their links to human trafficking.

She Zhijiang claims to have been a victim of double deception by the Chinese government. He says he founded his company Yatai on the instruction of the Chinese Ministry of State Security, and insists that Shwe Kokko was then a part of the BRI.

He claims that because he refused to give them control of his project, China’s communist leadership is turning against him. They wanted a colony on the Thai-Myanmar border, he says. She Zhijiang’s business relationship has been denied by China.

While he denied any wrongdoing on Yatai’s part, She Zhijiang, however, admitted to” a high probability” that scammers were coming to Shwe Kokko to spend their money.

” Because our Yatai City is completely accessible to anyone who wants to enter and leave freely. Refusing customers, for a businessman like me, is really difficult. This is my area of weakness.

It is, however, stretching credulity to believe that Yatai, which runs everything in Shwe Kokko, was unable to stop scammers coming in and out of the city.

Other than scams, it’s also difficult to imagine any other business choosing to operate here. With Thailand cutting off power and telecommunications, electricity comes from diesel generators, which are expensive to run. Additionally, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system, which is also very expensive, is used for communication.

Yatai’s strategy is” to whitewash the project to create a narrative that Shwe Kokko is a safe city”, says Jason Tower, from the United States Institute for Peace, which has spent years researching the scam operation in Shwe Kokko.

He claims that they may even be “begin moving some of the more notorious components of the scam industry, like torture, into other areas.”

But he doesn’t think the plan will work:” What kinds of legitimate businesses will go into Shwe Kokko? It’s simply not appealing. The economy will continue to be a scam economy”.

A company operating in a conflict zone

When we were eventually allowed to see inside one casino in Shwe Kokko, run by a genial Australian, he told us they were going to close it down.

Local Karen were the only customers inside, playing a well-known arcade game where they had to shoot digital fish. We were forbidden from doing any interviews. The roulette and card tables were not present in the back rooms. The Australian manager said the casino- built six years ago- had been popular and profitable when there were just one or two of them, before the civil war. However, these days, with at least nine customers in place, there were not enough customers to turn around.

The real money was in online gambling, which he said was the main business in Shwe Kokko.

Jonathan Mind/BBC A woman walks past a sign saying trafficking is prohibited. The sign is largely blue, with drawings of people with tools apparently smashing rocks on one side, and skyscrapers on the otherJonathan Mind/BBC

It is impossible to determine how much money is made through online gambling and how much is made through blatant criminal activity, such as money laundering and fraud. They are usually run from the same compounds and by the same teams. When we inquired about the amount of money they made, Yatai refused to answer with even a ballpark figure. That is private, they said. Although the business has registered in Hong Kong, Myanmar, and Thailand, these are essentially shell companies with very little revenue or income passing through them.

We turned down Yatai’s offer to see the go-kart track, water park and model farm that they have built. Although we were unable to enter Yatai’s own luxurious hotel, we did see one more casino while being served breakfast there. It seemed empty.

The only other place we were permitted to visit was a karaoke club, which had incredible private rooms and gigantic domes that were completely obscured by digital screens and where large tropical fish and sharks swam. They also ran video loops extolling the vision and virtues of She Zhijiang. Except for a few young Chinese women who worked there, this club also appeared deserted.

They wore opera masks to avoid being identified, and danced unenthusiastically to music for a few minutes before giving up and sitting down. Interviews were not permitted. We were allowed to talk to a local Karen member of staff, but she was so intimidated by this we got little more than her name.

Jonathan Mind/BBC Seven women in a karaoke bar, wearing white, black and gold clothing, holding hands and dancing in neon lightsJonathan Mind/BBC

She Zhijiang has left Shwe Kokko’s running to a young protégé, 31-year-old He Yingxiong, in his absence. He lives with Wang Fugui in a sprawling villa they have built on the banks of the Moei River, overlooking Thailand, and guarded by massive Chinese bodyguards. They play mahjong there, eat the best food and beverages, and watch business closely.

Mr He has a slightly different explanation from his boss for the scams still operating under their noses. We are just developers of properties, he said. ” I can guarantee that this kind of thing does not happen here. However, even if it does, the locals have their own legal system, so it is their responsibility to handle it. Our job is just to provide good infrastructure, good buildings and supporting industries”.

However, this region of Myanmar has neither a legal system nor a functioning government. It is ruled by the various armed groups which control different bits of territory along the Thai border. Their leaders decide who can start or run a business, using their profits to help pay their battles with the Myanmar military or against one another. Many of them are known to be hosting scam compounds.

Jonathan Mind/BBC He Yingxiong who is running Shwe Kokko stands in front of a wooden fence with a field and city in the backgroundJonathan Mind/BBC
Jonathan Mind/BBC A view of the villa that is being used by He Yingxiong who is currently running Shwe Kokko. A decking area with woven chairs overlooks a river and green trees on the other sideJonathan Mind/BBC

Mr. He acknowledged that the war had allowed Yatai to purchase the land for such a low price. Karen human rights groups have accused Saw Chit Thu of driving the original inhabitants off their land, with minimal compensation, though it is clear Yatai is also providing badly needed jobs for the locals.

The lawlessness of Karen State appeals to illegal businesses, but that doesn’t help Shwe Kokko’s reputation.

Neither do recent headlines.

A 22-year-old Chinese actor, Wang Xing, was duped into Thailand with an offer to work on a movie shoot, and last month he was freed from a scam center on the border. His disappearance spurred a barrage of questions on Chinese social media, forcing the Thai and Chinese authorities to mount a joint operation to free him.

Chinese tourists have been putting off travel to Thailand because they worry for their safety. Other rescues have followed. Some scam victims have emailed the BBC asking for assistance, and rescue organizations claim there are still thousands of people trapped. Nearly all are in smaller compounds along the border south of Shwe Kokko.

Yatai emphasized to us that they are not the same as these heinous operations, which are essentially a collection of sheds constructed in forest clearings. That is where all the bad things happen now, they said. They discussed Dongmei, a cluster of low-rise buildings run by a well-known Chinese crime lord known as Wan Kuok Koi, also known as Broken Tooth, and KK Park, a notorious compound south of the border town of Myawaddy.

That distinction hasn’t helped She Zhijiang, who once had the ear of politicians, police bosses and even minor royalty in Thailand. He appears to have lost even the influence he once had in prison today to obtain special privileges. He has complained of being roughed up by the guards.

His attorneys are contesting the Interpol red notice used to justify his arrest, but China’s voice will likely be the one that will determine his fate.

From our interview with him, Shi Zhijiang seemed genuinely outraged over his sudden reversal of fortune.

” Before, I had no understanding of human rights, but now I really understand how horrible it is to have human rights violated,” he said. ” It is hard to imagine how the human rights of ordinary people in China are trampled upon when a respected businessman like me, who used to be able to go to the same state banquets as Xi Jinping, does not have his human rights and dignity protected in any way”.

It appears he actually believed he could create something that would, one day, transcend Shwe Kokko’s vile beginnings as a scam city.

What happens to it now is hard to guess, but if the Thai and Chinese governments keep acting to shut down the scams, the money will start to dry up.

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GE Newbie Watch: PAP makes moves in opposition wards, PSP and WP fresh faces hit the ground

In December, Ms. Phneah was spotted in one of WP’s social media posts talking about walkabouts and referral initiatives in both the East Coast and Jalan Besar GRCs.

Her involvement with the WP dates back to the 2015 General Election, when she began volunteering with the Jalan Besar staff. &nbsp,

After that vote, she joined the group’s East Coast-Fengshan staff and helped out with local activities. &nbsp,

Since then, the WP part has been outspoken about socio-economic problems on various social media platforms, including her blogging, where she frequently details her opinions and experiences. &nbsp,

In a website blog earlier this month reflecting on Singapore’s 60th anniversary, she said she joined WP as she believed political competition may boost leadership in Singapore. She wrote,” It was a good platform for me to contribute to creating a credible and rational opposition and promotes Singapore’s improvement.”

Ms. Phneah is already an account chairman at business intelligence company AlphaSense, where she has been employed since 2023, according to her LinkedIn profile.

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