Trump tariffs: China is a manufacturing powerhouse- can tariffs change that?

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14 days before
Joel Guinto

BBC News

Reporting fromSingapore
Getty Images This photo taken on February 22, 2018 shows a woman working at a textile factory in Haian in China's eastern Jiangsu province.Getty Images

US President Donald Trump has hit China with a second tariff in as many months, which means imports from there now face a levy of at least 20%.

His most recent attack on Beijing is that country already faces steep US tariffs, which range from 100 % on Chinese-made electric vehicles to 15 % on clothes and shoes.

Trump’s tariffs target the brain of China’s production boom, a network of companies, assembly lines, and provide chains that produce and deliver a wide range of products, including everything from fast clothing and toys to solar panels and electric vehicles.

China’s trade surplus with the world reached a record$ 1 trillion ($ 788 billion ) in 2024 thanks to strong exports ($ 3.5 billion ), which overshadowed its import ($ 2.5 billion ) growth.

China has long been the largest manufacturer in the world, and it has grown ever since it first opened its doors to international trade in the late 1970s thanks to cheap labor and express investment in infrastructure.

How much could Trump’s trade conflict affect China’s ability to succeed in developing?

How do levies operate and what are they?

Taxes are taxes levied on imports from other nations.

The buyer is typically the one who pays the taxes, which are typically set at a fraction of the value of the goods.

A product imported to the US from China would therefore be subject to an additional$ 0.40 charge if it were to be subject to a 10 % tariff.

Getty Images Workers weld parts at a factory which produces cabs for excavators in Qingzhou, in China's eastern Shandong province on October 31, 2024Getty Images

In order to encourage consumers to purchase less expensive home goods, companies should increase the price of imported goods, helping to promote their own economy’s growth.

Trump sees them as a way of growing the US economy, protecting jobs and raising tax revenue. But economic studies of the impact of tariffs which Trump imposed during his first term in office, suggest the measures ultimately raised prices for US consumers.

Trump has stated that his most recent tariffs are intended to pressure China into more to prevent the US from receiving the narcotic.

He also imposed 25 % tariffs on Mexico and Canada, claiming that the country’s leaders were not doing enough to stop the flow of illegal drugs across borders.

Does Trump’s tariffs wounded Chinese factories?

Well, experts assert.

Exports have been China’s” saving kindness,” according to Harry Murphy Cruise, an analyst at Moody’s analysis, and if the income continue, exports to the US may drop by a third to a second.

Due to China’s imports, which account for a fifth of the country’s earnings, the sheer volume of which means a 20 % tax could undermine international demand and reduce the trade deficit.

The tariffs may harm China, according to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, general analyst for Asia-Pacific at Natixis in Hong Kong, to the BBC. They must perform a lot more, they say. They must “boost local need,” as Xi Jinping has already said.

That is a tall task in an economy where the property market is slumping and disillusioned youth are struggling to find high-paying jobs.

Chinese people have not been spending enough to recharge the economy – and Beijing has just announced a slew of stimulus measures to boost consumption.

According to analysts, tariffs may slow down or change Chinese manufacturing, but they can’t do so quickly.

Getty Images UBTECH's swarm-intelligent humanoid robots conduct practical training at Zeekr's 5G Intelligent Factory on March 1, 2025 in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province of ChinaGetty Images

” Not only is China the largest producer, it can also be the single supplier like solar panel. You can only get thermal panel in China, according to Ms Garcia-Herrero.

Before Trump became president, China had already started transitioning from making clothes and shoes to advanced tech like robotics and artificial intelligence ( AI ). And that has given China an “early movers” benefits, as well as the size of creation in the second-largest sector of the world.

According to Shuang Ding, general China analyst at Standard Chartered, Chinese factories may produce high-end technology in large quantities at a low cost.

” It’s truly difficult to find a replacement,” he said.” China’s position as a market leader is quite difficult to overtake.”

How is China reacting to Trump’s levies?

China has responded with counter tariffs of 10-15% on US agricultural goods, coal, liquefied natural gas, pick-up trucks, and some sports cars.

Additionally, it has announced an anti-monopoly analysis against Google and issued export restrictions to US companies in the fields of aircraft, defense, and technology.

From Trump’s second word, China has also had to spend years adapting to taxes. For example, some Taiwanese manufacturers have relocated their businesses away from the country. And because exporting from there without paying taxes, supply stores are increasingly dependent on Vietnam and Mexico.

However, according to Ms Garcia-Herrero, Trump’s new tariffs on Mexico won’t hurt China too much because Vietnam is a bigger loophole for Chinese products.

Vietnam is the answer, they say. I believe it will be very difficult if taxes are imposed on Vietnam, he said.

Getty Images This photo illustration shows the DeepSeek app on a mobile phone in Beijing on January 28, 2025.Getty Images

Experts believe that US limits on advanced chips predominate over China’s concerns.

These restrictions have caused China to face significant opposition from the two nations, but they have also fueled its desire to invest in separate, domestic technology.

It’s why Chinese AI firm DeepSeek shocked Silicon Valley and unnerved Washington when it released a chatbot that rivals OpenAI’s ChatGPT. The firm had reportedly stockpiled Nvidia chips before the US began cutting off China’s access to the most advanced ones.

Although this might have an impact on China’s profitability, I don’t believe that would have an impact on China’s position as a fabrication power, according to Mr. Ding of Standard Chartered.

On the other hand, any surface China can gain from innovative technology manufacturing will raise its high-value exports.

How did China grow to be a top producer?

According to experts, it occurred as a result of state aid, an unparalleled supply chain, and cheap labor.

The Economist Intelligence Unit analyst Chim Lee told the BBC,” The combination of globalization, as well as China’s pro-business policies and marketplace potential, helped to get the first wave of international investors.

The government then doubled down, investing heavily in creating a enlarging system of docks and bridges to import raw elements and export Chinese-made products to the earth. A robust exchange rate between the US dollars and the Chinese yuan also helped.

According to experts, a change in recent years toward advanced technology has made sure that it will continue to be related and forward of its competitors.

Getty Images This aerial photograph taken on April 16, 2024 shows electric cars for export stacked at the international container terminal of Taicang Port in Suzhou, in China's eastern Jiangsu Province. Getty Images

China currently has a lot of financial clout as a leader in the manufacturing sector. However, Trump’s tariffs also present a political option because they upend America’s relationship with other countries.

China must stand out as a strong international pressure and a proponent of free business, according to Mr. Cruise of Moody’s.

But that is not easy, given Beijing has been accused of flouting international trade norms, such as imposing a tariff of more than 200% on imports of Australian wine in 2020.

China must look beyond the US, which is still the main export place, according to researchers. After Canada and Mexico, the US export industry is the third-largest.

China’s business with Latin America, South East Asia, and Europe has been expanding, but it’s difficult to believe that the two biggest economies in the world you stop relying on one another.

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Taxi operators can convert used cars into taxis in move to level playing field with private-hire cars

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With new regulations allowing them to convert used cars under five years old into taxis, taxi operators in Singapore will have greater flexibility in managing their fleets, according to senior minister of state for transport Amy Khor on Wednesday ( Mar 5 ). &nbsp,

Operators have an additional option to expand their fleet, which may help reduce costs, according to Dr. Khor said, as part of the Ministry of Transportation’s ( MOT’s ) spending plans for the year, which was announced in parliament.

Operators who want to convert old cars into taxis will need to ask the Land Transport Authority ( LTA ) for permission. &nbsp,

The ministry is putting in place one more strategy to level the playing field between private-hire cars ( PHCs ) and taxis.

Taxi providers will also be permitted to buy up to 5 % of their ship if they are more than three years old. According to Dr. Khor, this move aims to lower the risk of operators trying out new taxi models like multi-purpose vehicles ( MPVs ), which are more expensive but better suited for commuters who require larger vehicles. &nbsp,

Users can continue expanding their ships beyond 2 percent annually, but the 2 % annual cap on growth for car fleets will also be lifted. Since 2021, the cap, which was first put in place in 2013, has been in place to allow car drivers to restock their ships following the pandemic. &nbsp,

According to LTA, the methods take time to become operational once they are in place.

More information will be provided at a later time as part of the consultation with vehicle users, the National Taxi Association, and the National Private Hire Vehicles Association.

According to LTA, the vehicle fleet has more than halved over the past ten years, from around 28,700 in 2014 to about 13,100 in 2024.

In contrast to PHCs, cars have higher running costs because of variations in the regulatory frameworks, with taxi drivers being subject to more restrictions, the authority said.

” These actions give taxi operators more room to control costs and expand their fleet,” said Dr. Khor. They” complement our goes in the PHC industry to more level the playing field between vehicles and PHCs.”

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Behold China’s innovative golden age – Asia Times

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Writing about the chaos of Trump’s evening is exhausting. I’ll get back to it later, but now I’d like to get a short break to read about a civilization that&nbsp, isn’t &nbsp, now tearing itself apart and accelerating its own drop: China.

A number of rising powers all reached their heights during the 20th century in terms of not only relative military may and economic power but also technological and cultural development.

These included the United States, Japan, Germany and Russia. Thus far, the 21st century is a little different, because just one big society is&nbsp, hitting its peak&nbsp, right today: China. India is only beginning to take off against the ancient power, and all of them are fading.

China’s top is&nbsp, really spectacular&nbsp, — a masterpiece of state capability and resource recruitment never seen before on this planet. China built more high-speed bridge in just a few years than the total number of different nations in the world. Its engine manufacturers are leapfrogging the developed earth, seizing authority in the EV market of the future.

China has produced so many solar panels and batteries that it has driven down the price to remain competitive with fossil fuels — a great blow against climate change, despite all of China’s huge fuel emissions, and a win for global electricity abundance.

China’s towns are scale-unmatched: dense forests of towering buildings adorned with LED lights, dense stores with wonderful restaurants and shops selling every modern convenience for a reasonable price, large highways and enormous train stations.

Yet China’s policy missteps and totalitarian misuses inspire awe and dread — Zero Covid failed in the end, but it demonstrated an ability to control world lower to the detailed stage that the Soviets would have envied.

However, it’s also up for debate whether China will be as inventive and cultural as the great empires of the 20th century. Many people ( including&nbsp, myself ) compare early 21st century China to&nbsp, early 20th century America. But by the start of World War 1, Americans had already invented the aircraft, the light bulb, the phone, the report person, air conditioning, the automatic transmission, the system weapons and the ball pen.

And the nation now had spawned a large number of well-known authors, Hollywood films, and jazz music. Japan’s social explosion&nbsp, came a little after, but was every bit as spectacular.

It is clear that a state that is authoritarian and oppressive inhibits creativity. I also expect China’s cultural export and control to improve as time goes on, due to increased individual wealth and leisure moment that make Taiwanese people feel more free to pursue artistic interests. But everything in the country is&nbsp, heavily censored, which means that the&nbsp, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ne-zha-2-chinese-animated-film-shatters-box-office-records-heads-overs-rcna191619″>movies&nbsp, and music and&nbsp, video games&nbsp, and TV and art that come out of China will usually tend to be bland, anodyne stuff. 1.

It’s much less clear whether&nbsp, scientific and technological&nbsp, creativity suffers from autocracy, though. To strengthen their nations, autocrats want to advance science and technology. They sometimes squelch private entrepreneurs out of fear that an alternative center of power would threaten their rule, but at the same time they tend to direct large amounts of resources toward research and development.

The USSR beat the US to space ( twice ), and Germany was pretty autocratic for most of its run as the world’s leading scientific and technological powerhouse.

Modern China is undoubtedly a very creative nation. Chinese scientists now publish the majority of high-impact papers in fields like chemistry, physics, computer science, materials science, and engineering:

Source: The Economist, &nbsp

The country’s true dominance is probably less than depicted in this chart, due to&nbsp, “home bias” in the citations&nbsp, used to measure papers ‘ impact. But even correcting for that bias, China is undeniably a scientific superpower.

China’s innovation outside of the lab is just as impressive. A vast number of&nbsp, incremental improvements&nbsp, and&nbsp, process innovations&nbsp, allow many Chinese businesses to improve product quality and decrease manufacturing cost much more effectively than their foreign rivals. Most of the manufactured goods we buy today would be either lower-quality, more expensive, or both without Chinese innovation.

In fact, Chinese companies are responsible for&nbsp, most of the nation’s research spending. As a result, Chinese companies dominate the global market for a number of high-tech products:

Source: RAND

China is now ahead of most or all of the rest of the world in terms of&nbsp, deploying&nbsp, and utilizing those technologies so that people can use them. It has the world’s biggest high-speed rail system, one of the world’s best&nbsp, 5G cell phone networks, the world’s best mobile payments system, the world’s best&nbsp, delivery robots, some of the world ‘s&nbsp, most automated factories, and the world ‘s&nbsp, most futuristic cars.

What, however, has China produced in its golden age so far in terms of actual big scientific and technological breakthroughs and breakthroughs? The answer to this question might not be&nbsp, economically&nbsp, important — it’s hard to name an invention that came out of Singapore, and yet it’s among the richest countries on Earth. But it’s kind of an interesting question nonetheless.

Some people now contend that significant breakthroughs are no longer as prevalent as they once were. Some believe the low-hanging fruit of science has &nbsp, already been picked. It’s also possible that it’s harder for a single inventor or discoverer to stay ahead of the pack due to the much greater competitiveness of today’s global scientific enterprise and the global economy.

Nevertheless, we&nbsp, have &nbsp, seen a bunch of big breakthroughs and game-changing inventions in the last two decades — AI, generative AI, mRNA vaccines, Crispr, smartphones, reusable rockets, lab-grown meat, self-driving cars and so on. And it’s usually not too hard to identify a few researchers or a single company that made the big breakthrough for each one of these.

What significant ones have also emerged from China over the past ten and a half? First of all, I think it’s helpful to differentiate three different types of breakthrough innovation:

    Scientific discovery: This occurs when someone develops a new useful theory or discovers some significant empirical result.

  1. Prototype invention: This is when someone demonstrates some technological functionality in a lab setting.
  2. Commercial invention: This is when a company creates a version of a technology that has sufficient functionality to achieve mass commercialization.

The distinction between 2 and 3 is the source of many debates about who invented what, though the line between 1 and 2 isn’t particularly important in my opinion. James Watt didn’t build the first working&nbsp, steam engine, nor Apple the first working&nbsp, smartphone, but they made critical improvements that made those technologies mass-marketable in forms that would be recognizable many years later.

Some people believe Watt and Apple don’t deserve credit for these inventions because of this, but I believe they’re mistaken. Successful commercial invention requires bringing together a set of features, functional improvements, cost reductions, design, marketing/branding, and a business model for selling the thing, and so it involves a different set of skills than making a prototype in a lab.

On the other hand, prototype invention is clearly important as well, because it demonstrates that something is possible to build. Even though the Wright Brothers didn’t create the type of plane that a lot of people wanted to buy and use, everyone agrees that they were the ones who invented the airplane.

So anyway, I tried to look up the answer to this question. My sources include a report from ChatGPT’s” Deep Research” AI, Google searches, and lists of Chinese&nbsp, inventions&nbsp, and&nbsp, discoveries, Google searches, and a conversation with&nbsp, Glenn Luk&nbsp ( who is very bullish on Chinese innovation ). 2

In terms of&nbsp, commercial inventions&nbsp, like the smartphone or the steam engine, there are some big things that have come out of China since the turn of the century. Among these are:

1. The quadcopter drone

When people say “drone” these days, they usually don’t mean things like America’s Reaper or Iran’s Shahed — things that run on fossil fuels. They mean battery-powered quadcopters. This kind of drone has significantly altered our physical world over the past few years, surpassing all other technological innovations since the smartphone, and has seen a lot more widespread commercial adoption.

The first electronic remote-controlled&nbsp, quadcopter drones&nbsp, were built by a Canadian company called Draganfly in the 1990s. The first commercially successful quadcopter was released by a French company called Parrot in 2010.

But it wasn’t until China’s DJI released their Phantom in 2013 that drones attained the baseline level of functionality we expect from them today, and took off as a popular global product. DJI’s drones had better control, more stability, and longer flight time than Parrot’s, as well as a number of additional features that we now see as crucial.

In the same way that Steve Jobs is generally regarded as the inventor of the iPhone, I think it’s probably acceptable to refer to DJI’s founder andnbsp, Frank Wang&nbsp, as the inventor of the contemporary quadcopter drone. 3

2.5G wireless communications

5G isn’t one thing — it’s a product standard, meaning it’s a suite of various wireless technologies and capabilities. But Chinese companies, especially Huawei and ZTE, led the world in terms of the integration of those various technologies.

They developed and expanded upon these technologies, combined them with technologies like Massive MIMO ( a technique for using multiple antennas ), beam forming ( a method for more directly and effectively transmitting wireless data ), and polar codes ( a noise reduction technique ). They then successfully distributed them to consumers.

So I think it’s fair to say that Chinese companies “invented 5G” in the same sense that Japanese companies invented 3G, or American companies invented 4G.

3. The personal air taxi

Lots of companies have been working on these, but most people agree that the Chinese company Ehang was &nbsp, the first to commercialize these. They appear pretty inventive:

Photo: Ben Smith via&nbsp, Wikimedia Commons

4. The semi-solid state battery car and the sodium-ion battery car

Chinese car companies were the first to release vehicles powered by&nbsp, semi-solid state batteries&nbsp, and&nbsp, sodium-ion batteries, two alternatives to the typical lithium-ion batteries we use in EVs.

In contrast to the typical kind of electric car, sodium-ion batteries are slightly safer and charge more quickly, while semi-solid batteries have faster charging, better safety, higher energy density, and longer lifespans.

5. Sharing of bikes without docks

Bike sharing itself was invented elsewhere, but a Chinese company is generally believed to be the first to commercialize&nbsp, dockless bike sharing, which has now&nbsp, become widespread&nbsp, in the country.

6. The smartphone that folds is

The Royole FlexPai is generally acknowledged as the world’s first commercialized foldable smartphone. It’s pretty neat!

YouTube video

]embedded content]

7. Payments made using a Face-scan

China’s Alipay was the first to implement” smile to pay” systems, back in 2017.

8. The vape (e-cigarette )

This was actually&nbsp, invented back in 2003, by a Chinese pharmacist named Hon Lik.

9. The skyscraper building machine ( and various other construction machinery )

This is really awesome. A Chinese company &nbsp, created a machine&nbsp, that moves up a skyscraper as it’s constructed, building each floor as it goes:

YouTube video

]embedded content]

There are also some pretty cool original machines for&nbsp, laying high speed rail track.

10. Electromagnetic car suspension

Bose long ago invented this, but BYD seems to finally be able to do so:

YouTube video

]embedded content]

Those are the main commercial inventions I could find. I’m sure this isn’t a complete list, because A) there are a few things that are probably known inside of China but not well-known in English-language media yet ( I’ve heard rumors that Chinese chip companies are already mass-producing&nbsp, 3D DRAM, for instance ), and B) there are some inventions that will end up being important but whose importance people haven’t generally realized yet ( like the air conditioner in 1902 ).

Additionally, this list may soon grow. Chinese companies might soon come out with the world’s first marketable&nbsp, humanoid robots, &nbsp, solid-state car batteries, &nbsp, vacuum maglev trains&nbsp, ( “hyperloop” ), &nbsp, thorium nuclear reactors, &nbsp, perovskite solar cells, &nbsp, lab-grown organs, etc. Any one of these technologies would change the game, but it’s never been clear how far these technologies have come from widespread use. They have been in development for a while.

So if you can think of anything else that should go on this list, please let me know.

But even allowing for the incompleteness of this list, I feel like I expected it to be…a little more impressive? Although some of the other items in this list seem a little unimportant, drones are amazing and are already having an impact. Dockless bike-sharing is neat, but I’m not sure how big of a difference it makes in terms of transportation convenience relative to the docked variety.

Although folding smartphones are cool, will you actually buy one? Sodium-ion and semi-solid-state battery cars have some advantages, but seem likely to end up as niche products. Facial recognition payment doesn’t really save you much time versus swiping a phone, and it’s a little creepy. A few frequently mentioned items, like BYD’s “blade battery,” sounded so incremental that I didn’t even list them on this list.

Anyway, &nbsp, prototype inventions&nbsp, are a bit harder to identify, because unless they’re done in an academic lab, it’s hard to tell how well the prototype really works. Companies are typically secretive about what they create, especially in China, where other businesses are constantly attempting to steal their intellectual property.

And what you do see&nbsp, publicly released&nbsp, is often a marketing stunt that doesn’t really reveal how well the thing works. Then there are military inventions, which are kept under&nbsp, even tighter wraps. It’s unclear whether a Chinese company actually entered the field of humanoid robots, solid-state battery cars, vacuum vacuums, or even when you know that they do.

The Wright Brothers were sort of a special case here — everyone could see for themselves that the thing flew.

Here I’m having a&nbsp, lot&nbsp, of trouble constructing a list. As for&nbsp, scientific discoveries. The top ones I could find include:

1. The development of space-based quantum communications (useful for determining when your communications have been compromised )

2. The first&nbsp, cloned primates

3. The first&nbsp, photonic quantum computer&nbsp, to demonstrate “quantum supremacy”

4. The first human babies whose&nbsp, genes were edited&nbsp, using Crispr ( though the scientist was jailed for doing this )

Really, there isn’t much else there. Not being a scientist, I’m not really able to judge how groundbreaking a discovery in chemistry or materials science or biology is.

But AI, Wikipedia, and the lists I find online are having real trouble listing Chinese achievements in science that aren’t of the form “world’s biggest radio telescope” or “fastest supercomputer on Earth for six months” .&nbsp, Wikipedia’s list&nbsp, of modern Chinese discoveries is almost all math theorems from the mid 20th century (usually work done outside China ).

This is a little strange, don’t you think? Chinese scientists are publishing 80 % of the world’s high-impact papers in materials science, 75 % in chemistry, and almost 60 % in physics, and neither I nor the entire English-speaking internet can find more than one or two breakthrough advances coming out of China in these fields?

Chinese science cannot be the answer, so let’s say that. I mean, &nbsp, a bit of it is fake, because of citation rings and perverse incentives at Chinese universities, but most of it is very real. It’s just all incremental stuff. Although all those incremental discoveries are unquestionably significant, there haven’t been many significant breakthroughs in recent years.

The seeming paucity of Chinese invention and discovery is even stranger when we consider how much human capital the country has. The nation should be producing more Nobel-caliber scientists with 1.4 billion people, one of the best educational systems in the world ( at least in the richer regions ), and incredibly well-funded universities. The talent is there. Except when you hear about Chinese scientists making world-changing discoveries, they all seem to have &nbsp, done their work outside China, often in the US.

Now, I’m always very skeptical of the myth that Asian nations are uncreative. This stereotype got lobbed at Japan for a long time, but it was never true, &nbsp, a list of Japanese inventions and discoveries&nbsp, will run for many pages. 4&nbsp,

Yes, there were cases in which Japanese companies adopted and improved technology from the US and Europe — CNC machine tools, shipbuilding, and fuel-efficient cars come to mind — but at the same time, Japanese scientists and inventors made breakthroughs at about the same rate as their counterparts in the West.

The” Japan is uncreative” trope partly came from Japan’s slightly later industrialization, but was also a defensive coping reaction by American businesses in the 70s and 80s who were afraid of Japanese competition.

However, some smaller Asian nations do seem to fit the stereotype a little better. Singapore, especially, is notorious for having some of the world’s best scientists and engineers, but&nbsp, very few breakthrough discoveries. The same holds true for Taiwan, too.

South Korea is somewhere in between — there are &nbsp, a few standout Korean inventions, but so far no science Nobels and few game-changing products. Together, those three countries have 80 million people, or about 2/3 of Japan’s population, but they have produced far fewer breakthroughs than Japan combined.

The good news here is that a country doesn’t actually have to produce a bunch of standout inventions and Nobel-winning scientific discoveries in order to get rich. Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan all have GDPs that are higher than Japan’s. So the question of” Where are all the Chinese breakthroughs”? might ultimately not matter to China’s leaders. Being “giant Korea” or “giant Taiwan” doesn’t sound like a particularly bad fate.

Still, I do wonder why China, with its vast talent pool, its avalanche of research funding, and its huge consumer markets, hasn’t produced more game-changing inventions and discoveries yet.

I genuinely don’t believe it’s a result of autocracy; the CCP would surely reward  a Chinese researcher for developing mRNA vaccines or the transformer model or Crispr. And Frank Wang wasn’t punished for inventing the modern quadcopter drone— in fact, he’s a billionaire, and seems to be escaping the negative attention that peers like Jack Ma have received.

One possibility is that China’s economic institutions reward fast-following and intense competition over breakthrough innovation. It might be economically useless to create something truly new because there isn’t enough strong intellectual property protection; it will just be copied by someone else who will get the all the credit.

That seems like it would encourage more incremental advances. In science, incentives for  and the quantity of papers over quality  may be to blame. These incentives, along with various industrial policies, might produce intensive overcompetition, which I believe Chinese people call “neijuan“.

Whether China can tweak its system to produce more breakthrough discoveries and inventions is an open question. Given the success of nations like Singapore, Taiwan, and Korea, whether it should even care about doing so is another open question. The country certainly does tons of innovation, and maybe the incremental kind is all you really need.

However, if the lack of breakthroughs persists, I believe there is a chance that the 21st century great powers may turn out to be a little bit more boring than their 20th century foes.

Notes:

1 There are exceptions, of course. Check out&nbsp, this list of interesting new music&nbsp, from China. The band Carsick Cars is my favorite of the bunch.

2 Deep Research is a very good product — the first AI I’ve found that’s really useful for my writing. The key is that it lists sources that you can independently verify, so you can’t put your trust in it to prevent hallucinate. One prompt is basically like getting a smart undergrad to spend a day or two writing you a research report.

3 On the other hand, most people wouldn’t call Henry Ford the inventor of the car, so there will always be arguments here.

The digital SLR camera, the hand calculator, the laptop, flash memory, the DVD, the LCD TV, quartz wristwatches, color plasma TVs, CDs, VHS, the semiconductor laser, the microprocessor, the hybrid car, the lithium-ion batteries, carbon nanotubes, pluripotent stem cells, quantum electrodynamics, the blue LED, mesons, CP violation, spontaneous symmetry breaking, neutrino detection, neutrino oscillations, MSG, high-fructo This very partial list includes all three types of breakthroughs — scientific discoveries, prototypes, and commercial inventions.

This article, Noah Smith’s Noahpinion, was originally published on Noah Smith’s Substack, and it is now republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Five takeaways from Trump’s Ukraine military aid freeze – Asia Times

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Trump reportedly announced to the media on Monday night that a senior US defense official would suspend all military aid to Ukraine until its leaders demonstrate a good-faith devotion to peace.

The announcement comes just weeks after Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, and vice chairman JD Vance, president of the United States, met at the White House.

In such a scenario, The Wall Street Journal had previously predicted that Ukraine could simply remain fighting at its present stage until this summer. What can we take away from this significant advancement in five simple terms:

<strong>1. Trump </strong><strong>i</strong><strong>s </strong>determ<strong>i</strong>ned to f<strong>i</strong>nd harmony w<strong>i</strong>th all<strong>i</strong>es.

Zelensky made it clear that he is determined to keep fighting and is still seeking NATO membership and American forces during his fatal attend to the White House last Friday.

Trump doesn’t like those names because they, he said, would harm World War III and that continued fighting would also be a possibility. &nbsp,

Trump, therefore, probably realized that the only way to bring Zelensky to terms with Putin is to thaw all military assistance until he reformers his attitude, which he perceived as severe.

2. Trump and Putin probably have a close-knit deal.

Trump claimed last week that” a ceasefire was occur right away,” which could have unintentionally revealed a surprise deal with Putin.

The second Ukrainian presidential elections are likely to lead to lasting peace, but they can’t be held without lifting martial law, implying the need for a peace.

Putin may help a peace to support the US’s curtailed support to Ukraine and validate Russian-US agreements, but he previously conditioned&nbsp, this on Ukraine withdrawing from the contested areas.

3.<strong> </strong>However,<strong> </strong><stro<strong>n</strong>g>i</stro<strong>n</strong>g>t<strong> </strong><stro<strong>n</strong>g>i</stro<strong>n</strong>g>s<strong> </strong><strong>n</strong><strong>ot<strong> </strong></strong><strong>y</strong><strong>et<strong> </strong></strong><strong>c</strong>omplete.

If the debate is correct, it doesn’t think that those two have reached a consensus.

Major issues like the border crossing between Russia and Ukraine and the peacekeeping issue may not be resolved until after the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine.

So, it’s unnecessary to say whether the Line of Contact will become the country’s last frontier or whether American peacekeepers may be stationed along it, particularly since Russia opposes both.

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In exchange for post-conflict benefits, about 90 % of American military aid to Ukraine routes through Poland. Therefore, Trump does ask it to prevent the Europeans from using its place to arm Ukraine while a ceasefire is in place.

He says he doesn’t want the British, French, or Germans to encourage Ukraine to offend the peace or to inspire Russia, and he can encourage Poland to do so by promising to keep American troops there, possibly from Germany to Poland, and by transforming Poland into its most important partner in Europe.

5. Trump’s top priority is the” New Detente.”

Every significant shift that has taken place since Trump’s phone with Putin in mid-February has been based on advancing his grand strategic objective of” New Détente,” which essentially aims to improve international relationships through a game-changing complete partnership.

Trump finally made the fateful decision to stop providing any military assistance to Ukraine because of this goal.

As Trump makes strong techniques to force Zelensky into the table of peace with Putin, transatlantic relations, Russian-US connections, and the nature of British hegemony are all changing before one’s vision.

His most recent one was essentially one of the worst-case cases from the standpoint of Ukraine and Europe, but they had little else to do in order to comply with his demands.

People who believe usually risk paying the price, as Trump repeatedly reminded Zelensky last Friday.

This article, originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack, is republished with sort agreement. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter around.

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China courts a shaken Europe after Trump-Zelenskyy row, slams US tariff moves

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After a writer from US information store NBC News inquired if taxes would be a vital topic at this year’s Two Sessions, NPC director Lou criticized Washington’s decision to impose punitive tariffs as a infraction of global trade rules.

The United States ‘ unilateral imposition of tariffs violates the WTO’s ( WTO ) regulations and impairs the stability and security of the world’s industrial chain and supply chain, according to Lou.

Lou advocated for a balanced approach and expressed hope that” the United States and China will match each other half and discover a solution to the problem through similar conversation.”

Lou emphasized Beijing’s commitment to international cooperation and a rules-based world trading system as tensions between the world and shifting political dynamics continue to impose on international relationships. &nbsp,

China” will even work together to promote equitable economic globalization by strengthening cooperation with all countries in the world to simultaneously guard the hard-won multilateral trading system, oppose unilateralism and isolationism, and promote cooperation in this regard,” he said.

DEALING WITH ECONOMIC PRESSURES

In light of this situation, the Chinese government acknowledged on Tuesday that the country’s business, which is already grappling with local difficulties, has been negatively impacted by external pressures.

According to Lou, the NPC spokesperson, “internationally, rising economic and political difficulties make it harder to stabilise outside demand.”

He continued,” some businesses are experiencing operational difficulties, and domestically, demand is insufficient, and.”

However, Lou emphasized the tenacity of China’s economic bases despite the persistent difficulties.

He cited the country’s” super-large market” and” complete industrial system” as cases as examples, noting that the country’s economic foundation is stable, has many advantages, strong endurance, and great potential, and the long-term aid situations and fundamental changes have never changed.

Lou cited the a number of steps that were announced in September of last year as one of the steps taken to boost the Chinese market. He even brought up the national effort to “use new productive makes,” or” xin zhi wen chan li” in Mandarin.

” China’s market has often grown stronger through testing and ups and downs. We are comfortable in the state of the Chinese economy,” Lou said.

Premier Li Qiang will deliver the government function statement at the NPC beginning on Wednesday, when China is expected to outline its economic priorities and commitments for the year. These include goals for important measures like GDP growth and fiscal gap.

Experts have told CNA that they anticipate that Chinese policymakers will introduce new measures aimed at a more violent, household-focused fiscal strategy as authorities increasingly look to collect money from their own citizens to boost the economy.

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At China’s annual Two Sessions, what policy actions do workers, businesses and analysts expect to see?

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They need to actually make fiscal policy more valuable, make it more expansionary, according to Huang, and they have gradually come to realize that their long-standing fiscal conservatism is difficult.

Senior economist Xu Tianchen of the Economist Intelligence Unit ( EIU) agreed with this and predicted that this year’s lianghui would spark more government discussions on spending, which could lead to more action on this front.

Xu also made note of China’s intention to increase exclusive treasury bond funding this year. They represent additional governmental firepower, he told CNA,” While that is not within the article budget.”

According to a source cited in a Reuters report from December last year, Taiwanese officials agreed to challenge 3 trillion yuan value of specific government bonds in 2025. That would be the highest ever recorded amount, representing a significant boost over the 1 trillion yuan issued in 2024.

Chinese state organizers have not disclosed the anticipated value, merely stating that the release will aid in encouraging business expense and consumer-boosting initiatives.

” GREATER EMPHASIS ON HOUSEHOLDS”

Observers claim that these actions are intended to promote household-driven growth, which is gaining traction in China as a stressed external landscape, especially US tariffs, threatens to undermine its export prowess.

Previously, China’s policies were strongly geared toward purchase in the manufacturing field, according to EIU’s Xu.

” But we’re starting to see a more focused focus on folks, on families.” That is perhaps quite crucial to China’s long-term growth, Xu said.

Chinese leaders have never made a remark about their force for local consumption.

Premier Li Qiang made the most recent exhortations during a study program in the late February State Council, where he argued that” use must be placed in a more notable position,” with more resources and more targeted measures required.

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Japan’s Astroscale transforms into defense contractor – Asia Times

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With the award of a commitment to develop a “responsive place program show dish” for Japan’s Ministry of Defense, Astroscale, the Chinese area venture company, has actually become a defense contractor.

The three-year job, which will be announced on February 27, will begin with the creation and testing of a “proto-flight” model, which will then be launched to exhibit space domain awareness, surveillance, intelligence, and functional capabilities.

As Astroscale Japan expands into the security and defense business,” We have established a second wall of our procedures,” according to managing director Eddie Kato.” As a result, we have established a considerable step.”

Prior to just, Astroscale has been generally known for its function on space dust tracking and removal. When it went public on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in June 2024, it did so in terms of both how it promoted itself and how the Japanese media perceived it.

However, it should be obvious that a high degree of ability to see and follow other objects in orbit and space is required for the identification, interception, and removal of space debris ( including satellites, defunct or otherwise ).

Officially known as space domain awareness ( or space situational awareness ), this ability to track satellites, rockets, and space debris requires telescopes, optical sensors, and radars. It serves both for military and civilian purposes and has always been a dual-use technology.

The definition of space situational awareness is” the necessary current and predictive knowledge of the space environment and the operational environment on which space operations depend,” according to NASA. It “provides knowledge and understanding of threats posed to space systems by adversaries and the environment [italics added ] and is essential in developing and employing space asset protection measures.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency ( JAXA ) selected Astroscale as the private sector partner for Phase II of its Commercial Removal of Debris Demonstration program in April 2024.

Astroscale was in charge of the ADRAS-J close proximity observation satellite’s preliminary design, development of navigation sensors, and other tasks during Phase I of the project. Phase II moves on to detailed design, ground testing, assembly, and mission operations.

The launch of a full-fledged debris removal service, ADRAS-J ( Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan ), was described as” the world’s first attempt to safely approach and characterize an existing piece of large debris through Rendezvous and Proximity Operations ( RPO )”.

Following the announcement on February 11 that Astroscale’s UK subsidiary had successfully completed the Mid-Term Review of the UK Active Debris Removal mission’s current development phase with the UK Space Agency, Japan’s Ministry of Defense awarded the company. &nbsp,

Additionally, Astroscale UK has been chosen as the lead contractor for the European Space Agency’s Capture Bay for Active Debris Removal for In-Orbit Demonstration mission.

For work on In-situ Space Situational Awareness ( ISSA ), Astroscale UK announced a multiyear contract with leading UK defense contractor BAE Systems on January 14. Specific details were kept secret. In other words, spy satellites that spy on other satellites refer to the ability of one spacecraft to monitor another.

According to Astroscale,” We must understand them before we can safely remove defunct satellites and other debris from orbit. Includes the location, close approach, and rendezvous with an object, followed by the collection of in-space data to better understand the movement characteristics of the object.

For the US Space Force,” Space Domain Awareness & Combat Power” is focused on delivering cyber, ground, and space-based systems that quickly identify, warn, characterize, attribute, and predict threats to national, allied, and commercial space systems, as well as providing National Security deterrence capabilities in a space conflict.

International executive line-up

In Japan, Astroscale was established in 2018. It has offices in Tokyo, but it has grown to be a multi-national corporation with branches in the United States, France, and Israel. The top management of the business is composed of individuals who are connected to these countries ‘ space and defense establishments and have related industries:

Nobu Okada, the CEO of Astroscale, is a fellow member of the Royal Aeronautical Society of the UK and a member of the Subcommittee on Space Space Industry at the Japanese government’s cabinet office. Prior to that, he worked as an IT consultant and entrepreneur in Singapore, India, China, and Japan.

Chris Blackerby, the CEO, was formerly the senior space policy official at the US Embassy in Tokyo and the attache for Asia for NASA.

At OneWeb, Chief Technology Officer Mike Lindsay oversaw mission design, systems engineering, and spacecraft performance while also serving as the company’s director of spectrum architecture. He also held positions at Google and NASA.

Prior to joining Orbital Sciences ( which was later acquired by Northrop Grumman ), Chief Engineer Gene Fujii worked on commercial low earth and geostationary satellites and launch vehicles. He previously worked as a space technology executive at ORBCOMM and as a senior systems engineer at Orbital Sciences ( which was later acquired by Northrop Grumman ).

Nick Shave, managing director of Astroscale UK, was formerly vice president of strategic programs at satellite telecommunications company Inmarsat and chairman of UKspace, the trade association of the UK space industry.

Ron Lopez, president and managing director of Astroscale US, began his career as an intelligence officer with the US Air Force Space Command’s responsibility for developing space situational awareness capabilities. He later joined Honeywell Aerospace and headed the defense &amp, space Asia Pacific sales team.

Before joining Astroscale Japan as president and managing director, Eddie Kato established a space and telecommunications consulting firm in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, he served as a senior executive at Leonardo, an Italian defense contractor and the French aerospace and defense company Thales Alenia Space. Additionally, he held positions in the space divisions of Mitsubishi Electric, GE, and Lockheed Martin.

The French armed forces, the Centre NationalD’Etudes Spatiales, the UK Ministry of Defence, and the European Space Agency have worked with the managing director of Astroscale France, Philippe Blatt, who has previously held positions as a systems engineer and executive at Thales and Thales Alenia.

Ofir Azriel, the managing director of Astroscale Israel, began his career as a satellite engineer for the Israeli Air Force and later as a systems engineer for Israel Aerospace Industries. He then headed the on-orbit service company Effective Space Solutions and, four years later, handled the company’s acquisition by Astroscale, where he first served as engineering vice president.

This executive line-up suggests that Astroscale is more than just a company that cleans up the space environment.

Awareness of the space domain

Since 2021, Astroscale has been working with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan’s top defense contractor and rocket manufacturer, to develop on-orbit technology and services.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry chose it in the same year to conduct research and development on robotic and robotic arms and hands that can be attached to spacecraft to perform complex and complicated tasks like maintenance and operations, as well as in orbit and on the moon.

The first space domain mission unit of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to operate the Space Situational Awareness ( SSA ) system with the main objective of monitoring things like space debris and suspicious satellites, which could pose a threat to Japanese satellites, was established in Japan in 2020.

The squadron was later renamed the Space Operations Group of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force. It “entertained the full operation of a system a system in 2023″ and” took the position and orbit of space objects” in its entirety.

It collaborates with JAXA and other organizations to “monitor activities around the clock and warns satellite operators of the possibility of approaching objects.”

A consortium led by the UK Ministry of Defense’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory ( DST ) and SJE Space was chosen to explore space-based space domain awareness mission concepts for launch in the 2030s. &nbsp,

Air Self-Defense Force Major General Takahiro Kubota told the audience that improving space domain awareness is one of Japan’s top strategic priorities at a Sasakawa Peace Foundation public lecture and panel discussion on” Enhancing Japan’s Defense Capabilities and Challenges Beyond 2027″ that took place in Tokyo on February 27.

In line with this, the Japanese Air Force will be renamed the Japan Air and Space Self-Defense Force in fiscal year 2027.

In light of all of this, Astroscale’s demonstration satellite for the responsive space system can be seen as yet another step in the direction of the development of hunter-killer satellites that are integrated into Japan’s and its allies ‘ space defense systems.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Singapore to buy 2 more submarines and introduce new ‘Titan’ infantry fighting vehicle

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Singapore’s Armed Forces ( SAF ) plans to purchase two more submarines to add to its four-strong fleet, according to Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen on Monday ( Mar 3 ).

The Singapore Army will even purchase a brand-new troops fighting vehicle, the” Titan,” which is wheeled and, for the first time, substantially increased in power thanks to a 30mm gun as a distant weapons system.

Unmanned aerial systems ( UAS ) will also be a part of the Titan’s defense.

The long-range High Mobility Rocket System ( HIMARS ) launcher from the army will also be upgraded to rockets with greater rocket capability.  

Since 2010, the HIMARS has been beneficial and efficient. Dr. Ng cited Russia’s continuing conflict with Ukraine.

The minister provided these updates as he presented the spending plans for the Ministry of Defense ( MINDEF ) in parliament.  

In 2017, the Republic of Singapore began producing four European, hand-made Invincible-class ships. According to Dr. Ng, all of them are on record to be functional by around 2028.

The primary two were already ;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; entirely operationalized past September.  

However, four boats are not the best option for a ship, according to Dr. Ng. Our submarines, are subject to more strenuous maintenance cycles and regular maintenance checks; as you can picture ,  they must run figuratively and physically under extreme pressure.

Operational day is” contrary reduced in some ways.” This is why the majority of submarine-operating warships have more than four countries, including Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and others. of our near neighbors,” he continued.  

” Having demonstrated that the Invincible-class ships may perform to;
plans to purchase two more ships to make up the SAF’s inventory in exotic lakes; six represents the state of our submersible fleet’s stability. ”  

UPGRADES AT THE Water AND IN THE AIR

Later this year, the navy will also introduce its first multi-role combat craft ( MRCVs ). Six of them were previously purchased as substitutes for a aging fleet of Victory-class weapon ships that had been in use since 1989.

About  The MRCVs are larger and have a wider selection. three days more advanced than the ships.

The MRCV is a mothership with autonomous systems, not a single ship. She will improve the navy’s ability to protect our sea interests, according to Dr. Ng, with its collection of advanced sensors and combat systems.  

The Republic of Singapore Air Force ( RSAF ) is looking into appropriate replacements for its Fokker-50 maritime patrol aircraft, which has been in service for three decades and has guarded Singapore’s sea defense and maritime communication lines.

The Boeing P-8A and Airbus C295 are being evaluated especially.

The past is flown by, to name a few, the US Navy, the Royal Air Force, and the Royal Australian Air Force.  

In addition, countries like Chile and Spain have purchased the Airbus C295 for anti-submarine battle operations.

Dr. Ng also made note of the formation of an F-35 and F-16 fighter aircraft training détachment at Ebbing Air National Guard Base in Fort Smith, Arkansas, in the US, on Monday.

Singapore lately confirmed the order of F-35As from the US, with Dr. Ng before confirming the decision to purchase eight more of those aircraft. during the MINDEF budget conversation next year.  

After conducting thorough practicality studies between the RSAF and the US Air Force, which took into account factors like applicability of place and teaching area, as well as equipment and logistical support, Ebbing was chosen.  

These actions show the strength of our cooperation in the US’s defense industry and our continued commitment to a multi-decade relationship. Dr. Ng thanked the US for their assistance.  

The SAF as a fairly small war would have evolved with state-of-the-art platforms similar to developed militaries abroad and appropriate for our safety purposes with these additional capabilities for air, land, and sea. “

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Europe’s dangerous delusion of defense without the US – Asia Times

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US President Donald Trump unceremoniously showed Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky the door following an acrimonious exchange at the White House on Friday. Trump’s angry words for Zelensky were televised for all of America to hear, and no doubt shocked many in the viewing audience.

“You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III. You’re gambling with World War III,” Trump said. “You’re not winning. You’re not winning this. But you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out.”

Just as shocked as the American TV audience about Trump’s blunt “make a deal or you’re on your own message” were the US’s European allies and rushed to pledge their support for Zelensky and condemn Trump –moves and words they may soon live to regret.

European Union chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa jointly tweeted: “Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President@ZelenskyyUa.” 

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said: “Ukraine, Spain stands with you”; his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk wrote: “Dear [Zelensky], dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.”

Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz addressed a tweet directly to “Dear Volodymyr” and vowed to stand with Ukraine “in good and in testing times.”

Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Keir Starmer chimed in with similar profundities.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat and former prime minister of Estonia, outgunned them all: “Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine. We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the aggressor. Today it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”

Most of them were scheduled to meet the Ukrainian leader on March 2 in London for a summit on Ukraine organized by Prime Minister Starmer. Zelensky was set to be honorably hosted by King Charles III at his Sandringham country retreat.

As a welcome to London on Saturday, Zelensky was handed a 2.6 billion pound check (a loan), a down payment on the UK’s “standing with you as long as it takes to protect the integrity of your country.”

In a Nikkei Asia opinion piece, Trump’s peace initiative is portrayed as “forcing Kyiv to concede its occupied lands and deny its ambition to join NATO” and “closer to appeasement than clever dealmaking.”

In the same op-ed, Trump is compared to “British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain [who] proclaimed that he had brought ‘peace for our time.’ But this ultimately led to the Nazis marching into Czechoslovakia in March 1939, and the outbreak of World War II. Similarly, Richard Nixon’s 1973 ‘peace with honor’ deal in Vietnam resulted in the fall of Saigon just two years later.”

Presumably, in this British-inspired charade (the Nikkei owns and channels the Financial Times), Zelensky is assigned the role of Churchill.

The only dissenting European voices were those of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban who wrote: “Strong men make peace, weak men make war. Today President Donald Trump stood bravely for peace.… Thank you, Mr. President!

And of a man who may be worrying that he’ll lose his job, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who told the BBC he had called Zelensky, said: “I said: I think you have to find a way, dear Volodymyr, to restore your relationship with Donald Trump and the American administration. That is important going forward.”

Which European stance and view will prevail? That is dictated by reality, not the will and delusional thinking of Eurocrats such as von der Leyen and Kallas or the leaders of the UK, France and Germany, just to pick the top three.

Trump’s basic peace plan, which specifies no NATO membership for Ukraine, territorial concessions and no NATO Article 5-type US security guarantees but relies on the repair of US–Russia relations and prospective new security structures for Europe, will either be implemented or there will be continued war ending in Russian victory or, should European NATO forces intervene directly, World War III as Trump has warned.

Europe today has no military forces capable of successfully confronting a full-scale Russian onslaught without reliance on the US military and the US nuclear umbrella, nor will it likely ever have such capabilities even with a sustained crash rearmament program.

Not even in the 1980s, when this writer served in the (West) German military, with its strength at its peak of 500,000 soldiers and 7,000 tanks, was the defense of Western Europe without the US ever so much as contemplated. Today, it’s a dangerous fantasy.

Germany’s authoritative Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) released detailed studies proving the point in September 2024 (“Fit for war in decades: Europe’s and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-à-vis Russia”) and February 2025 (“Defending Europe without the US: First estimates of what is needed”).

The summary of the 2024 study states:

Germany did not meaningfully increase procurement in the one and a half years after February 2022, and only accelerated it in late 2023. Given Germany’s massive disarmament in the last decades and the current procurement speed, we find that for some key weapon systems, Germany will not attain 2004 levels of armament for about 100 years. When taking into account arms commitments to Ukraine, some German capacities are even falling.

For the record, Germany currently has 180,000 active personnel (61,000 in the army, 27,000 air force, 16,000 navy, remainder support staff); 350 main battle tanks compared with 2,398 in 2004; 120 howitzers compared to 978 in 2004; 218 combat aircraft compared to 423 in 2004. It is not capable at this time to field a single combat ready division of 20,000.

Other European NATO forces similarly lack manpower and equipment, with no early change in sight. That includes the UK. The UK Ministry of Defence last released detailed figures on the number of trained personnel in combat-ready roles in July 2024. British Army: 18,398. Royal Air Force: 21,915.

Meanwhile, the Russian military is expected to reach its target strength of 1.5 million by mid-2025, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The only NATO member other than the US in the same general class is Turkey, with 511,000 under arms.

The Kiel Institute estimates that Europe would need an additional 300,000 troops and an increase of about $250 billion in defense spending to even begin to redress this sorry state of military affairs. The spending looks doable even in the near term; the manpower increase is not.

And the critically important role the US plays in NATO, planning, coordination and commanding large-scale multinational forces, will not be replaceable for many years. Nor will US real-time tactical intelligence and targeting capabilities. 

It is hard to believe that even the most belligerent European leaders, grandiloquently speaking of “strategic independence” (such as Germany’s Merz) and of going it alone are not aware of these facts.

And the same Merz, so eager to launch German Taurus missiles against Russia, will likely think twice about such bravery if the US is not around to back him up.

Europe can dream about strategic autonomy after peace is made in Ukraine. But it has no military capability to defy or undermine the Trump peace plan. In reality, there is no other.

Uwe von Parpart is editor-in-chief of Asia Times.

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