Singapore labour market expands in Q2, with growth coming solely from non-residents

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NON-RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT

While work permit holders increased, the numbers of S Pass and employment pass ( EP ) holders both fell.

MOM said the S Pass recipients ‘ decline, which mainly consisted of those in manufacturing, was in line with recent efforts to raise qualifying salaries and taxes and lower limits.

In addition to increased administrative and support services and general trade, EP holders increased in information and communications, specialized services, and financial and insurance solutions.

MOM reported that as companies adjusted their post-pandemic workforces and adapted to plan changes to improve the quality of the international labor, the total amount of S Pass and EP buyers decreased in the first quarter of 2024.

” With the business picking up, the number of higher-skilled foreign employees is expected to rise in the medium-term, if economic conditions remain good”, said the government.

JOB VACANCIES AND Layoff

The great number of job openings remained steady at 81 and 200 in June, despite strong labor demand in Q2.

Job vacancies exceeded the number of poor people’s employment in June, increasing to 1.67 in the ratio.

Unemployment rates improved in June ( 2.0 per cent overall, 2.7 per cent for residents and 2.8 per cent for citizens ) and the resident long-term unemployment rate stayed low at 0.8 per cent.

Cutbacks rose slightly to 3, 270 from 3, 030 in the first quarter, with rises in financial and insurance companies and retail business, but remained reduced total at 1.4 retrenched per 1, 000 employees.

However, the rate of re-entry to the workforce following retrenchment decreased from 59 % in the previous quarter to 55 %.

According to MOM, the re-entry price substantially increases with time based on the experiences of previous groups of retrenched workers.

More than 70 % of retrenched native workers in the first half of the year 2023 found work within 12 months of losing their jobs.

Companies cited restructuring or business organization as justifications for retrenchments.

” Layoff have decreased as regional external need outlook is anticipated to be resilient for the rest of 2024,” said MOM.” Recessations due to concerns of crisis or downturn in the market have decreased.

The government predicted that the labor sector speed would continue moving forward, with wages and employment growing in combination with economic growth.

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‘Malaysia’s Bavaria’: Sarawak Premier Abang Johari aims to lift state’s stature through infrastructure, education

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Before the next state elections scheduled for 2026, Mr. Abang Johari wants Sarawak to contribute the second-highest to Malaysia’s gross domestic product ( GDP ).

Sarawak accounted for 9.1 % of the GDP in 2023, compared to Selangor ( 25.7 % ), Kuala Lumpur ( 15.9 % ), and Johor ( 9.5 % ), according to data from the Statistics Department of Malaysia ( 29.9 % ).

Sarawak is attempting to follow nations that have made significant investments in equipment in order to promote economic growth, the Premier said.

” What Sarawak is doing now is to improve our system, because we’ve got the strength, including power, and we build our inner home connectivity”, he said, adding that the condition is working with investors to construct its economy.

” We are getting funding in Sarawak, and the advantages may be shared with the owners as well as the Sarawak state or, for that matter, Sarawak as a whole,” the statement read.

However, Mr. Abang Johari argued that Sarawak’s rapid growth and towering ambitions should not be taken as a declaration of independence, dismissing calls for the state to leave Malaysia by some Sarawak activists.

These campaigners are frustrated by what they perceive as the federal government’s ongoing failure to restore Sarawak’s right under the Malaysia Agreement of 1963, which was the legal foundation for Malaysia’s founding with Sarawak and Sabah acting as equal partners with Malaya.

The federal government acknowledged, of course, how the state operated and how things went ahead. It does n’t mean that there is an urge for us &nbsp,- some ( have this ) perception- ( to go ) on our own”, Mr Abang Johari said.

Independent TERTIARY EDUCATION

Sarawak is beginning to make its own in the form of a free training program for Sarawkians at its five state-owned institutions.

These are the Curtin University Malaysia Sarawak Campus, Swinburne University of Technology Sarawak Campus, University Technology Sarawak, Centre of Technology Excellence Sarawak, and i-CATS University College.

Local advertising had recently reported that the proposed scheme, which is anticipated to cost the government up to RM625 million, will gain about 25, 000 pupils in Sarawak’s state-owned institutions and higher-learning organizations.

The Sarawak state, nevertheless, has said that the free training will only apply to selected science and specialized fields, in line with the country’s development programs and to optimise sources.

Opposition Sarawak assembly Chong Chieng Jen, from the Democratic Action Party, questioned these instances, calling it a “lame reason”.

Is there a hidden issue with the Sarawak government’s financial condition that prevents it from funding the bank? In a statement from the August 29 Dayak Daily, he was quoted as saying.

CNA has contacted Sarawak’s Ministry of Education, Innovation and Talent for more information about the programs that will be completely subventioned and the number of individuals who will gain.

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‘Never give in’: Philippine top diplomat has choice words for China – Asia Times

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Enrique Manalo, the director of international affairs of the Philippines, claims that his organization has no purpose of jetting down or compromising its sovereign rights or interests by challenging the country’s political balance with China.

However, as the two parties shift from issue to conflict in the contested South China Sea, it is getting harder to strike a balance.

Diplomacy does not imply giving in. You not give in. See if you and your partner may come to terms with a remedy or contract. In an exclusive meeting this week in Manila, Manalo told this creator,” It is never a situation that you give in completely to the other side or submission.” &nbsp,

Manalo made a statement just before the most recent Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) meeting between the two parties, which was held this week in Beijing. The Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands has recently sparked fresh conflicts, which were discussed at the meeting.

On September 11, the Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, Chen Xiaodong, and Philippine Undersecretary Theresa Lazaro held what were referred to as “frank and candid” discussions on way to de-escalate conflicts and avoid armed conflict in the fiercely disputed waters.

” Emphasizing that]Sabina ] Shoal is within the Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ) of the Philippines, Undersecretary Lazaro reaffirmed Manila’s consistent position of the Philippines and explored ways to lower the tension in the area”, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs ( DFA ) said in an official statement following the high-level discussions.

” I reaffirmed the Philippines ‘ unwavering support and looked into ways to lower the tension,” Lazaro said in a separate statement on X. ” We agreed to continue conversations on areas of cooperation, particularly on line process, coastguard assistance, and marine scientific and technological assistance”.

” The two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on maritime issues between China and the Philippines, especially the issue of]Sabina ] Reef”, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in its own statement.

But China vowed to “firmly defend its independence” in the contested waters and&nbsp, reiterated its earlier demand&nbsp, for the Philippine Coast Guard troops to abandon the contested reef in the Spratly group of islands.

The Sabina Shoal, also known as Escoda in Manila and Xianbin in Beijing, is 150 kilometers east of the Philippines ‘ special economic zone and 1,200 kilometers from Hainan, China’s southern state, is located 150 kilometers west of Palawan.

China seems concerned that Manila does attempt to build military installations on another disputed territory features despite failing to stop the Philippines from successfully fortifying its de facto naval base at the Second Thomas Shoal.

Both parties appear to be determined to avoid an military conflict at sea, which could lead to US intervention under its bilateral security agreement with the Philippines.

Earlier this month, Samuel Paparo, the captain of the US Indo-Pacific Command, boldly offered to directly support Philippine resupply and police operations in the contested waters.

Earlier this year, Manila and Beijing negotiated a faintly defined “provisional contract”, which has reduced conflicts, at least over the Following Thomas Shoal.

Potrivit to reports, proposals to develop a similar agreement across different tense sea regions have been made. The urgent need for politics has, however, been largely obstructed by both sides ‘ exceedingly uncompromising jobs.

Aggressive tones are present everywhere. Gilbert Teodoro Jr, the director of Philippine security, has questioned the knowledge of actually holding diplomatic talks with China on numerous occasions, even though this position directly contradicts the Department of Foreign Affairs ‘ place.

” No, because they ( the Chinese ) have the tendency of using the talks against us. When questioned about political management of conflicts in the South China Sea, Teodoro asserted in a Senate hearing earlier this year that they have not demonstrated a level of good faith that warranted talking to our delicate department.

Teodoro went so far as to accuse China of being” the biggest industry of international peace” last month while explicitly calling for” stronger collective international actions against China.”

Generally speaking, that tough talk is in line with local polls that constantly reveal that the majority of Filipinos favor a hard line against China alongside allies.

Chinese leaders have likewise indulged in carrot-and-stick language. At the Xiangshan conference in China, Chinese military Commander General He Lei addressed a small group of journalists as they “hope that the South China Sea may be a lake of serenity.”

” We in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army does resolutely love any foreign hostile invasion on China’s regional, royal and maritime rights and interests with strong determination, staunch may, powerful capability and powerful means”, he warned.

” If the United States moves its puppets behind the scenes, if it pushes locations to the front line, or if the United States itself ends up on the front line, therefore we in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army … will never have any patience”, He said.

Leading Spanish officials quickly responded to the provocative statement made by the Chinese general.

” We do n’t feel like we were alluded to.” In response to He’s remarks, National Security Council ( NSC ) spokesman Jonathan Malaya told the media that the Philippines is not and will never be a pawn of the United States. ” As a sovereign country, the Philippines will firmly support its regional dignity, sovereign right and jurisdiction”, he added.

In the meantime, Philippine Navy spokesman Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad stated to reporters that the army was prepared to intervene if China launches aggressive tactics against the Philippine Coast Guard’s premier ship BRP Teresa Magbanua, which has been stationed at the Sabina Shoal since April to avert China’s presence there.

” There are contingencies in place that our Western Command]in Palawan ] already knows if in case this would escalate”, Trinidad said.

A plan to extend the previous temporary agreement for the Second Thomas Shoal to various disputed ocean areas was also recently made. Filipino diplomats appear at least for the time being pushed by the security creation and another influental corporate voices and have since abandoned that strategy in favor of a tougher stance.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Manalo has vehemently denied there was any” cooperation” with China under the interim agreement, contradicting Beijing’s state of a “prior warning” mechanism for Asian resupply missions to the Next Thomas Shoal.

Filipino officials have made it clear on numerous occasions that the interim agreement does not violate the nation’s right to selfdetermination within its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone.

” We have an Exclusive Economic Zone, which is recognized. Our presence]in the Second Thomas Shoal &amp, Sabina Reef ] is grounded in international law, which were agreed to by]other ] countries”, Manalo told the author this week.

China “is not necessarily adhering to the rules it has signed onto,” Manalo said, referring to China’s nine-dash line claims in the South China Sea, which were rejected by an international court in 2016 under the aegis of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.” We ca n’t discuss this based on]their ] so-called historic rights,” he said.

Manalo also refuted claims made by Chinese officials and media outlets that the Philippines is a” American puppet,” pointing rather to Manila’s unique national interest-based business model.

” We are just exercising our]sovereign ] rights…. The narrative that every action]the ] Philippines takes…It’s all at the behest of a foreign power ]assumes that ] we do n’t have our own security interests and]strategic ] agency. I do n’t think that narrative is good…we have our own interests and we are willing to discuss]possible agreements ]”, he told the author.

He cited the Philippines ‘ growing defense cooperation with allies and partners as “based on our own needs because we live in a very uncertain world,” underscoring the Philippines ‘ increasingly diversified and “multi-aligned” foreign policy philosophy.

” Definitely we are not relying on any]single ] partner. Of course, the United States is our]treaty ] ally but they are not our only partner … our relationship with Japan has been stronger. We have a much stronger ties with Australia, with Vietnam and even seeking to improve our relationships with New Zealand and, of training, India”.

Observe Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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Putin, Zelensky signal a new willingness to talk – Asia Times

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Both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, are suddenly expressing a desire to talk after weeks of strong refusals to discuss.

It’s difficult to establish whether either chief is honest, though Zelensky said he will give his schedule to US President Joe Biden, Ukraine’s biggest military boost, somewhere in November. Putin, whose troops invaded Ukraine first in 2014 and then again in 2022, has n’t articulated precisely what he has in mind.

At the present war commencement, the fighting leaders specified material peace terms that required the other to give up their war aims wholeheartedly. Ukraine demanded the total removal of the Soviet forces that seized eastern Ukraine in 2014 and the Crimean Peninsula. Putin, meanwhile, declared a purpose of incorporating Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

Zelensky’s move, announced last month, is more official. It was contained in a four-point design, which is a shortened version of his ten-point peace plan from 2022.

The” Peace Formula” for 2022 emphasized the need for the Kremlin to pledge not to enter again and the complete removal of all Russian forces. His most recent” Victory Plan” includes a pledge to “end the war in a political manner.”

In response to demands from Northern European allies to ask Russia to discussions, he said,” We understand that it is very hard to socially end this war without the Russian side.”

The current Ukrainian invasion of territory in and around the town of Kursk in much eastern Russia, which Zelensky suggested may encourage allies to provide more economic and military aid, was the “victory” scheme.

Zelensky stated that the primary goal of this strategy is to press Russia to end the war. He also stated that he would details the program with Biden sometime in the fall.

The Kremlin initially ignored Putin’s request for diplomacy and kept to Putin’s unique war goals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that” the enemy knows our ideas for the denuclearization and denazification of the regime-controlled provinces, as well as the removal of challenges to Russia’s security emanating from it, including our new land, are also known.”

However, in his small comments last year, he appeared to be warming up to discussions. ” If there is a need to deal, we will not refuse”, he said. ” We have not rejected them”.

So, is all this only pretext or major message-sending reflecting some sort of war fatigue?

Each side’s riches on the field have dramatically changed over the past almost two years. First, Russia launched a blitzkrieg-like floor rude that precise big Russian cities, including the money Kiev but which Ukrainian defenders repulsed.

Ukraine launched a counteroffensive the following year to travel the Russians out of the nation but was unable to reach further than a few hundred feet into Russian-defended place. Russians were obstructed by hectares of Russian-made minefields and suffered horrifying casualties from jet and artillery bombardments.

This time, Putin ordered a fresh rude, which has taken some place in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine but which has resulted in a minimal, hard-fought reset of Russian troops.

Putin has declared success anyway. ” We are not talking about advancing 200 or 300 meters”, Putin said last week. ” We have n’t had this kind of pace in the offensive in Donbas for a long time.”

For the moment, the main goal of the Russian campaign is to take the town of Pokrovsk, a communications hub held by the Ukrainians. More consistently brutal assaults have been carried out across the country using armed drone attacks, rocket launches, and artillery fire. Energy infrastructure and civilian targets, including homes and schools, have been destroyed by daily bombardments in Ukraine.

Finally, Ukrainian troops demonstrated their new offensive abilities by staging a surprise cross-border assault on Russia. The Russian city of Kursk was taken as a result of the August thrust, which included the conquest of hundreds of square miles of territory.

Zelensky said as he distributed medals to his soldiers,” Everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise.” Our soldiers are demonstrating this on the battlefield, where they have withstanded the occupiers ‘ overwhelming force and are also destroying it in the necessary way to protect Ukraine.

Additionally, Ukraine has a sizable supply of domestically produced drones that have sunk ships in the Black Sea and hit targets far outside of Russia.

So, who is actually winning and would have the advantages in negotiations?

On paper, nuclear power Russia seems to have the edge, even if its offensive moves are slow. Armed with heavy weapons, domestically produced drones, and numerous imported Iranian weapons, it has thrown around 600,000 soldiers into battle. North Korea has supplied rockets. Steady income from petroleum sales, especially those to India and China, has enabled it to be paid for.

Russian casualties number over 300, 000, according to US officials, and almost a third of them are reportedly dead. Despite sporadic complaints from relatives of the dead and the injured, Putin appears willing to pay a high human price. Whether those figures are higher or lower than reality,

However, according to an article in the foreign policy journal Responsible Statecraft, winning the war on terms that Putin had originally anticipated, such as the annexation and annexation of Ukraine, is unrealistic and bad for Russia. ” Instead, Russia’s incentive is to use its growing advantages as a lever for negotiating with the West”, the article contended.

Nonetheless, the article concluded that establishing “demilitarized buffer zones in Ukraine”, would be enough of an achievement.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is hampered by dependence for arms on sometimes wavering outsiders, especially in Europe, and difficulties in recruiting fresh soldiers at home.

The domestic mass production of ammunition is still slow. As things stand, Ukraine is highly dependent on foreign supplies”, said Huseyn Aliyev, a researcher at the University of Glasgow specializing in Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian casualties stand at about 80, 000 killed and 130, 000 wounded, official estimates that some believe are intentionally understated. In April, Zelensky lowered the draft age from 27 years old to 25 in hopes of boosting troop numbers.

“Ukraine may come to feel it ca n’t win”, suggested General Richard Barrons, former head of Britain’s Joint Force Command. ” And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer – just to defend the indefensible”?

Other analysts counter these gloomy assessments by pointing out that Ukrainians have shown remarkable resilience in the face of a much bigger and relentless foe. They blame allies, including the United States, for compounding Ukraine’s weaknesses by rationing arms and limiting their use.

” Western incrementalism&nbsp, in the provision of military ]arms ] …strengthens Putin’s ability to absorb risk”, writes the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank. The Kremlin will have to deal with its mounting issues if US support for Ukraine continues and grows.

ISW argued that Ukraine should also be permitted to launch rockets fired from Western-provided targets anywhere in Russia.

In any case, Ukraine is faced with a paradox because it needs to demonstrate significant military advancement to elicit more weapons from the West, increasing the likelihood of such success. The Rand Corporation, a second US-based think tank, wrote that” Showing skill in invading Russian territory cannot be repeated unless it receives more military assistance.”

Zelensky appears to be aware of the problem, and he is not just betting on Biden. In order to take the place of the lame duck Biden in the November US elections, he intends to address Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.

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Analysis: Malaysia’s botched web rerouting plan shows it must be more transparent, ‘better prepared’ on new internet policies

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Dr. Shafizan acknowledged that the action was in line with Malaysia’s wider strategy of exercising its “internet sovereignty,” which describes how some governments are attempting to challenge the “western aspirations” of a free and open internet.

The communications teacher argued that” these institutions largely support the ability to establish specific rules and regulations that shape the online in a way that is in line with their cultural and societal principles.”

She noted that Malaysia may have chosen DNS redirection as a “less evident” way of preventing access to some websites, so that visitors who attempted to access these websites may have encountered a launching error rather than a censorship notice.

It can be viewed as harsh from a liberal political view because it imposes what the general public can and cannot access, violating the fundamental freedoms of conversation and information, Dr. Shafizan said.

The government has the power to properly filter and block content, which allows them to influence public opinion by controlling the information that is made available to residents.

PRIVACY AND SECURITY&nbsp,

Mr. Numan, a spokesperson for Project Sinar, claimed that Indonesia uses a similar technique to prevent websites, particularly those that are associated with social discord or inappropriate content.

Indonesian ISPs intercept consumer requests and either redirect them to a wall warning page or just gain no results, he said, making the material impenetrable.

Although the professional approaches used by various nations may differ significantly, Mr. Numan said that they all aim to obstruct the free flow of information.

According to him,” These stones, whether through DNS hijacking or other methods, can cause widespread disruption to reputable online service, as seen in situations where major platforms and services like YouTube and GitHub have been blocked in Indonesia and India.”

Mr. Numan argued that DNS rerouting could have an impact on customer privacy because it allows ISPs and governments to track down and track users ‘ DNS questions, exposing their browsing habits and the sites they attempt to access.

” In contrast, security challenges arise from Domain tampering. Redirecting users to illegal or fraudulent websites can lead to malware being spread through malicious websites meant to steal or spread malware, he continued.

” This deterioration in DNS integrity you cause people to lose faith in the internet infrastructure they rely on,” said one expert.

VPN WON’T BE BANNED

One internet users told CNA that he was losing faith in how the state is handling security measures, calling the abandoned DNS plan “another little reduce policy” it was trying to put into practice quickly.

Mr. Khairi Zulfadhli, the head of electronic at a Malay search engine optimization firm, claimed he learned about the walk through social media after his customers who used Cloudflare servers experienced downtime.

” One thing that made me very upset is that they (MCMC) left it to ISPs to adopt the order without any guidelines, no customer relationship, no guide, no discussion at all. Then, they tried to blame ISPs when ( problems ) happened”, he said.

Following the plan U-turn, Mr. Khairi was presenting his observations from an MCMC wedding session on September 9, which the expert claimed was held to correct misconceptions and gather expert opinions on the DNS issue.

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China’s deepening footprint in the South Caucasus – Asia Times

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Azerbaijan is at its center in the South Caucasus, which serves as a vital power hall and cushion area between Russia and the Middle East.

At this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and China signed a Joint Declaration on establishing a proper relationship, which underlined China’s geo-economic method to the area.

The Joint Declaration was a lengthy, varied file. Financial articles focused on prospects for cooperation in important sectors, particularly natural strength, oil and gas production, transport infrastructure and digitization. The charter also emphasized Azerbaijan’s position in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s$ 1 trillion world infrastructure-building system.

In particular, both parties committed to enhancing connectivity through the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route ( TITR ).

Trans-Caspian International Trade Route. Map: Ships Europe

The declaration’s material coincides with Azerbaijan’s longstanding policy of multi-vector politics, through which it seeks to stabilize relationships with various international powers. Increased Foreign investment and economic assistance provide potential economic benefits as well as yet another “vector” in foreign policy to lessen Russian reliance on Russia and the West.

The focus on cooperation for proper global trade corridors and supply stores suggests that China has come to see Azerbaijan as a significant person in its wider Eurasian economic strategy. The agreement improves Azerbaijan’s reputation as a middle-class and improves its political standing.

Azerbaijan in China’s approach in the region

China has been pursuing the South Caucasus for some time. However, the Joint Declaration with Azerbaijan, which established a proper relationship, and Georgia’s choice of a Chinese collaboration to create the Anaklia port all come together to identify Beijing’s elevated profile in the political and geo-economic environment.

South Caucasus chart: Tillotomo Foundation

These actions come at a time when it seems as though European effect in the area is waning. The emphasis of Europe has been stifled by internal problems and the ongoing fight in Ukraine. However, the United States is preoccupied with local issues, prominently the present election cycle.

In this environment, Azerbaijan’s status as a vital link in global supply chains and local trade corridors becomes extremely important for China’s broader ambitions.

Beijing’s approach in the region is varied, with Azerbaijan at its base. Due to its role in the Belt and Road Initiative and its strategic position within the European supply chains, Azerbaijan is a crucial lover for China.

On the one hand, at the geo-economic levels, Beijing seeks to establish alternative trade routes, including through Azerbaijan, to lessen its dependence on ocean paths controlled by the US and its supporters. This goes along with China’s search for new businesses and tools.

The coach route from China to Europe. Map: Wikilpedia

On the other hand, China’s involvement in the South Caucasus is a component of its wider revision strategy to establish a Sinocentric system of economic and political associations, challenging the West’s dominance over the global system.

China’s strategy in the South Caucasus exemplifies its attempt to project its influence throughout Eurasia at large through financial diplomacy and network development.

China may eventually confront more scrutiny from places in and outside the region, as has happened somewhere in Eurasia. After the November elections, the US may start to play a stronger role in the region once its local social position settles. Some European countries, such as Italy, have now reassessed their strategy to Azerbaijan and Georgia.

The Anaklia deep-sea port initiative in Georgia, which is strategically located on the eastern border of the Black Sea, is another excellent illustration of China’s growing structural presence in the area.

The project, which had previously been contracted to a Georgian-American consortium comprising Georgia’s TBC Bank and the US-based Conti International, will now potentially fall under Chinese control.

The cancellation of the previous contract in 2020 was caused by political controversies and legal issues. A new tender was eventually offered, and this year, a Chinese consortium was the sole bidder. It is now ready to begin constructing the port.

The Anaklia port might eventually become a crucial component of the Middle Corridor if additional infrastructure is built and the Black Sea’s cargo transit capacity is significantly increased.

Regardless, its geo-economic implications highlight Georgia’s growing ties with China and China’s expanding footprint in the South Caucasus. These implication only serve to deepen the current inquiries about Georgia’s relations with the West that are the result of its anti-democratic domestic political evolution.

For Russia, the dominant power in the South Caucasus for the last two centuries, China’s expanding influence there presents both opportunities and challenges. Russia may be suspicious of China’s growing presence in Georgia and Azerbaijan, where Russia is accustomed to have a proprietary sphere of influence, despite the fact that Moscow and Beijing have established closer ties in recent years.

Given Russia’s current relative isolation abroad and its related domestic economic challenges, it may have only limited ability to counteract China’s growing influence in Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus.

China and other powers, including Russia, have a chance because of the relative absence of Western involvement in the South Caucasus. After removing the Russian so-called peace-keeping force from formerly occupied Karabakh, Moscow has rekindled its relations with Azerbaijan.

Tehran may achieve better relations with all of the countries in the South Caucasus, as suggested by the recent cosmetic change in Iran’s political leadership.

The West and the Armenian diaspora

Although Azerbaijan’s overall foreign policy has been balanced between the various global powers, recent myopic political stances from the US and the EU have influenced its decision to support China.

These included a number of resolutions recently passed by the European Parliament as well as the US Congress ‘ decision to impose a restriction on the president’s ability to waive Amendment 907 of the Freedom Support Act, which imposes restrictions on aid to Azerbaijan.

All these political maneuvers were spearheaded by the international Armenian diaspora and its lobbies in various capitals, leading to Azerbaijan’s isolation from Western diplomacy and its pivot toward China.

In consequence, the United States and Europe are at risk of losing some of their influence in this crucial region, as well as any potential liberalizing effects that might affect the development of Azerbaijan’s domestic political system.

Despite having a population that is more than one and a half times Armenia and Georgia combined and twice their combined gross domestic product ( GDP ), Azerbaijan is strategically the most significant country in the region.

China’s growing presence in Azerbaijan, through infrastructure investments and strategic partnerships, could complicate Western strategic calculations, particularly when it comes to ensuring European energy security.

Specifically, Chinese investments in Azerbaijan’s energy sector already offer Baku alternatives to Western financing, potentially reducing its reliance on Europe as an energy market.

Pipelines that will be a part of the Southern Gas Corridor project. Map: Wikipedia

By allowing Azerbaijan to pit its partners against one another, the increased flexibility that comes from this development would weaken Western bargaining power.

Chinese-backed projects may also affect the ability of the Southern Gas Corridor to meet the needs of Europe. This could change energy flows toward Asia at the same time. China has already become the second-largest buyer of Azerbaijan’s oil.

A stronger Chinese presence in Azerbaijan and Georgia could have long-term effects on Russia, the West, and the Greater Middle East as a whole.

Robert M Cutler was for many years a senior researcher at the Institute of European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, Carleton University, and is a past fellow of the Canadian International Council.

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Yagi: More than 80 dead in Vietnam after super typhoon sweeps across country

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A very storms that struck on Saturday continues to cause heavy rain, floods, and flooding in Vietnam, killing at least 82 individuals.

In some northern provinces, thousands of people were spotted stranded on houses, while others posted determined requests for assistance on Tuesday.

Typhoon Yagi- Vietnam’s most strong storm in 30 decades- has wreaked havoc across the north of the country, leaving 1.5 million people without electricity.

Dashcam footage captured the instant the Phong Chau gate in Phu Tho state collapsed, sending many vehicles into the ocean below.

Officials have warned that Yagi may cause more trouble as it moves westward, despite its current deterioration into a tropical despair.

Phan Thi Tuyet, 50, who lives close to the river, told the AFP information company that she had never experienced such high waters.

” I have lost all, all gone”, she said, clutching her two pups.

To protect our lives, I had to travel higher floor. No equipment could not be brought with us. Now, all is” under ocean.”

The surprise- which brought gusts of almost 150km/h (92mph )- has damaged bridge, torn buildings off structures, damaged factories and triggered widespread flooding and landslides, leaving 64 people also missing.

Officials have now issued flood and flood warnings for 401 communes in 18 northern regions.

In some areas of Thailand’s Nguyen and Yen Bai regions, one-story houses were practically completely submerged on Tuesday, with people frantically requesting assistance from the rooftops.

At least 752 people have been injured as a result of flooding and floods, according to authorities at the ministry of agriculture on Tuesday, in addition to the deceased and missing.

When hitting Vietnam, Yagi left 24 people dying across southwestern China and the Philippines.

Typhoons can increase wind speeds and increase rainfall, according to meteorologists, but the impact of climate change on specific storms is unclear.

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Too early for Japan to advise China on defeating deflation – Asia Times

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TOKYO – Pot. Kettle. Black. When Japan’s previous head of the central bank offered Beijing guidance on fighting recession, the legendary idiom naturally made sense in Person’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng’s head.

On Friday ( September 6), Haruhiko Kuroda, who headed the BOJ from 2013 to 2023, appeared at the Shanghai’s Bund Summit total of ideas for PBOC leaders. Kuroda warned them to act immediately and confidently to avert” Japanification” challenges. ” Central bankers should avoid prolonged recession even if it is minor, that may affect pay determination”, he said.

Three days prior to today’s announcement that coast consumer prices increased less than some economists had anticipated in August. The 0.6 % increase from a month earlier comes amid factory-gate depreciation, a trend that’s plagued the PBOC and Chinese business since 2022. In July, producer prices fell 1.8 % from a year earlier following a 0.8 % decline in June.

Kurida’s guidance comes from a policymaker who probably comprehends the curves and difficulties of recession better than anyone else. Irony abounds in this instance, given that Kuroda left BOJ offices in April 2023 without actually finishing the job.

Since therefore, it’s fallen to his son, Kazuo Ueda, to sort out where Japan finds itself 25 years on. On July 31, Ueda’s team hiked Japanese rates to 0.25 %, the highest since 2008, signaling that deflation had been defeated. However, a tantalizing event occurred in the weeks following: Tokyo’s officialdom pushed back, to say no so quickly.

Ueda was summoned to Parliament on August 23 to answer questions from concerned politicians. The BOJ’s tightening step 23 days earlier sent the yen skyrocketing, a shock that wiped out as much as$ 6.4 trillion from global stock markets. Yet another big surprise came at the same hearing, where Finance Minister Shunichi&nbsp, Suzuki argued his team does n’t think Japan is ready to declare victory.

” We believe we have reached a point where problems are no longer negative, but we cannot claim the possibility that the state could go up into deflation”, Suzuki stressed.

This suggests that the BOJ and the government of Japan are at a crossroads in the country at a time when the economy is n’t performing as expected. Latest statistics show that “in stage words, GDP is still below where it was in the second third of 2023”, says Stefan Angrick, senior analyst at Moody’s Analytics.

Angrick adds that the “headwinds facing the business are significant. Export are struggling and are unlikely to significantly increase before the year’s end. Household income are stretched. We’re looking for more proof that pay rise will continue, since this summer saw a significant increase in regular cash earnings, which was mostly driven by stronger bonus payments.

Despite the mingled information, Angrick concludes,” the Bank of Japan seems determined to strengthen economic policy. At best, more level hikes will be an added bring on growth. At worst, they may precipitate a broader slump”.

Which is precisely what concerns Suzuki and his Liberal Democratic Party. The question is then whether Japan will experience a repeat of the 2006-2008 period, when the BOJ last attempted to normalize rates just to instantly reverse course.

Back then, the Toshihiko&nbsp, Fukui-led BOJ managed to end quantitative easing and engineer two 25-basis-point tightening moves, getting short-term rates as high as 0.50 %.

As financial growth slowed, the democratic reaction was fast and furious. By 2008, Fukui’s son, Masaaki Shirakawa, was beginning the process of restoring QE and cutting costs up to zero. Could this policy-reversal active be repeated in Japan in 2024?

For then, Ueda is arguing it’s full speed ahead on price excursions. It’s not distinct, nevertheless, that future financial data may assistance that view. Especially at a time when Suzuki’s ministry of finance group appears to think deflation could lead to either side.

What is the architectural context in which Japan is situated? A fast-aging people like Japan’s is essentially negative. Folks in their 70s do n’t tend to consume like those in their 20s and 30s on new homes, cars, appliances, education, travel and entertainment.

Another: the “deflationary thinking” that continues to baffle Tokyo. For a couple of years now, Chinese households did n’t only grow used to stable-to-lower costs. They developed a dependence on the pattern. In high-tax, stagnant-wage&nbsp, Japan, sliding prices acted&nbsp, like a cunning tax cut of types. It really increased the power of households.

In China’s situation, fragile prices could enjoy some benefits for business profits.

The issue is now that Japan finally experiences inflation, but households are n’t content with it. Consumer prices are rising more quickly than regular wages, which results in a social culture shock.

In the decade in which Kuroda served as the BOJ’s head, Kuroda and his team aimed to start a virtuous cycle of salary increases that increased business profits and gave workers bigger and bigger paychecks. The opposite is happening. Due to higher commodity prices and a poor renminbi, the majority of Japan’s prices is being imported.

This, in turn, is undermining customer investing. Analysts at Fitch Solutions product BMI write that “elevated prices continues to challenge Japan’s financial field.”

It would be good to have a template to refer to as China fights its own deflation battle. Tokyo, of training, should be that event review. Perhaps 25 years after initially lowering costs to zero, it is unclear whether Japan or its own lost decades have been learned.

Kuroda is the only person who comprehends this more fully. He is more knowledgeable than any current central banker about the fact that inflation is n’t always a monetary phenomenon, contrary to what Milton Friedman and his fellow Nobel laureates have said.

Without bold structural reforms that alter incentives, increase competitiveness and level playing fields, monetary easing alone wo n’t reverse a major economy’s falling-price troubles. And at the time, China’s latest “inflation information confirms negative forces remain rooted”, says Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée.

Worse, he says, statistics on producer prices “was more bad than anticipated, reflecting worries about overcapacity in important areas, which has led to discounted stock costs”. Casanova points out that “upstream forces continue to have an impact on the entire sales landscape,” he continues.

To maintain prices, Pan’s group at PBOC may slash rates further. In July, for example, the PBOC surprised markets with a cut in interest on 7-day reverse purchase agreements to 1.7 % from 1.8 %. The PBOC stated at the time that the goal was to “increase financial aid for the actual market.”

However, the action also reflected Robin Xing, a Morgan Stanley economist ,’s “reactive nature of easing.” According to Bruce Pang, chief analyst at Jones Lang Lasalle, the decline in mainland costs is a result of a weakened real estate sector.

Due to the concern that a falling renminbi might lead to other issues, the PBOC is reluctant to cut prices once more. With this conflict, Pan’s establishment and bond traders are at odds with one another, pushing rates upward more quickly than the PBOC desires.

Xinquan Chen, a strategist for Goldman Sachs, claims that this is because the PBOC is preoccupied with” Chinese-style yield curve control.” According to Chen,” the attempts to set a floor for long-term Taiwanese government bond yields appear to be working for the moment, but poor private demand and inadequate attitude may lead to lower yields in the medium term.”

President Xi Jinping’s authorities also could be doing more. &nbsp,” The fiscal policy approach needs to become more proactive in order to avoid the negative anticipation from becoming entrenched, in my view”, says analyst Zhiwei Zhang, chairman of Pinpoint Asset Management.

As Japan has taught the world, while, a multi-pronged collapse of economic stimulus, fiscal pump-priming and supply-side updates are needed to maintain prices.

The second two valves have been replaced with too much of Japan’s first half century. Japan is firing on fewer cylinder than it should be in 2024 as a result of the glacial pace of efforts to modernize labour markets, cut red tape, catalyze a business growth, and motivate people.

All of which makes Kuroda’s holding court in Shanghai, pretending that these challenges are in Tokyo’s rear-view mirror, a bit amusing. Granted, Kuroda did so respectfully. However, BOJ members who are currently or former might want to direct their criticisms and suggestions to Tokyo first.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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