Equity (Page 9)

Recently, artificial intelligence ( AI ) technology has been at the forefront, drawing attention to businesses like Nvidia, which is now one of the world’s most valuable companies.

But where does this tech stand among those that have made the online world possible? Due improvements with the greatest potential were primarily based on electronic devices, which made it possible to develop more powerful computer and communication systems.

The transistor, which was created in 1946 and is the genesis of our modern electronic age, was the first step in the right direction. In various forms, the circuit, which replaced vacuum tubes products, is the solid-state system enabling all electrical systems.

Its scalability, reliability, and low switching power dissipation made it possible to build reliable computing systems that could n’t be achieved using previous vacuum tube technology.

In the 1960s, the following vital invention came: the integrated circuits, which combined several connected transistors on a silicon chip. The core of almost all modern digital systems is this invention, which has grown from a dozen circuits on a device to billions today.

The chips ‘ infrastructure is determined by the desired system functionality based on transistor connections.

Strong computing systems require high-speed connections, and the introduction of lasers and fibre optics solved this problem. The most widely used laser developed in the 1970s were silicon beams that enabled information contacts by high-data-rate grain optic-based data transfer.

High-frequency light photons from visual materials can be used to transmit digital data over thousands of kilometers. Now, fiber optic contacts, along with mobile systems, dominate online communication.

The development of the system that made widespread consumer and business contacts possible worldwide was completed with the introduction of the Internet in the 1990s.

Although computer software technology was developing, it was unable to keep up with the fast development of devices, which led to a rapid increase in data. As a result, the nation’s systems generated enormous amounts of data that were not important. To manage and usage data, better strategies were required.

Since the 1950s, scientific work has been ongoing to translate ideas about the special capabilities of the human mind to computer systems, despite limitations in existing technologies.

The human mind functions on the basis of a large number of coordinated cells that talk as needed to manage human activities.

Instead of using the horizontal running method, the idea that underpins AI&nbsp, systems was that computer data processing may resemble that of the human mind, or “neural running.”

It was believed that this control would enable much more effective access to and use of computer energy. But, practical results were delayed to come.

In consequence, the suggested AI systems relied on large parallel information processing. A large number of running transistors, powered by an enormous quantity of processing transistors, were all that was needed to create valuable systems.

With small practical application, years of research on these methods and techniques were conducted. Finally, &nbsp, with the integrated circuit performance improving along Moore’s Law, it became possible to build useful AI systems ( with Nvidia in the processing device leadership ) and really remarkable data processing results were demonstrated. Thus the prevailing people excitement.

But is all the pleasure warranted? In my opinion, AI deserves a level alongside the main prior modern technology advances. AI enables an massive improvement&nbsp, in the use and benefit of information. It does not discover new information, but it can detect trends in previously unobserved patterns in data.

AI may induce human creation by uncovering undiscovered connections but does not invent. Ultimately, it can communicate with people in real time, which would make it possible to perform tasks that are error-prone in modern techniques.

No, it does not bestow desktops with human intellect, but it enables people intelligence to perform at new levels of efficiency.

Henry Kressel is a technician, engineer, company executive and writer who has created numerous essential innovations, including founding functional semiconductor lasers. He is also a long-term private equity investment in technology businesses.

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This is a continuation of an earlier Asia Times post on tiny nuclear reactors.

The only small modular reactors ( SMRs ) that are currently in use are China and Russia ( HTR-PM high temperature gas cooled reactor ), and the only other nuclear power plants that are about to become operational are mostly traditional pressurized water reactor designs. However, the present scenario is not just a matter of similar old, same old.

The good news is that the design phase for many more Biomarkers is underway. Now, more than 80 professional SMR models are being developed around the world. Some of those patterns are being developed by well-known nuclear companies, frequently with government assistance.

The bad news is that start-up companies are putting forth another styles with an eye on the principal chance but much technical skills.

Many of these businesses appear to be promising to build their schemes in the first 2030s, something that is almost surely impossible to do. They are promising to do so as much expense as possible. The majority of businesses provide wildly optimistic structure and deployment timelines that are continually being updated.

The reactor designs on offer cover a wide range of different reactor technologies, starting with those that are smaller than the more well-known pressurized water reactor ( PWR ) designs before moving on to more complex designs like molten salt reactors, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, and fast neutron reactors. They target varied outputs and various uses, such as electricity, cross energy systems, heating, water desalinization and steam for commercial applications.

These systems are promoted as possible, flexible, cost-effective electricity solutions with lower investment costs that are perfect partners for renewables. Their advantages are variously listed as ease of siting, reduced waste generation, increased safety and rapid construction.

The International Atomic Energy Agency &nbsp, ( IAEA ), in a detailed report published in 2020, included details of 25 land-based water-cooled SMRs from 12 countries, six marine-based water-cooled SMRs from two countries ( four from Russia and one from China ), 11 &nbsp, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors ( HTGRs ) from eight countries, 11 fast neutron reactors ( FNRs ) from seven countries, 10 molten salt reactors ( MSRs ) being developed by six countries, and six microreactors ( MMRs ) from four countries.

Of the 69 reactors described, 36 were only in the pre-conceptual or conceptual design phase, while four were in the preliminary design stage.

The companies provided the information, and the optimistically suggested construction or deployment dates have changed as the years have gone on. For example, US X-energy’s Xe-100 envisaged the start of construction in 2025 but now says it aims to deploy its first advanced SMR by the early 2030s.

Similarly, in 2020 the timeline of ARC Clean Technology’s ARC-100 sodium-cooled fast reactor foresaw the first unit going into service in 2028. &nbsp, The ARC-100 was selected by New Brunswick Power for commercial demonstration on the company’s Point Lepreau site.

A deployment date of 2035 is now being suggested. However, Arc has just laid off staff, putting even that timeline in doubt. According to ARC, the organization is “re-aligning personnel and resources to strengthen our strategic partnerships and rationalize operations to best prepare for the next phase of our deployment.”

In the early 2020s, US-based Terrestrial Energy is expected to start building its first full-scale integral molten salt reactor ( IMSR ) in Canada, according to a report from the IAEA.

That did n’t happen. Currently, the company says it hopes to develop IMSR fuel in the 2030s to support a fleet of IMSR plants.

US TerraPower’s Natrium—a combination of molten salt and FNR technology that claims to be “one of the fastest and lowest-cost paths to advanced, zero-carbon energy” —originally set a deployment date of 2028. However, Terrapower, chaired by Bill Gates, has since indicated a two-year delay due to problems with fuel development. Deployment, even in 2030, seems highly unlikely, despite the spin. &nbsp,

Basically, Natrium is a sodium-cooled fast reactor. Currently, the only commercially operating sodium-cooled fast reactors are in Russia. Things started to change in the late 1970s as concerns about limited uranium resources waned and public opinion became more hostile in the wake of the 1979 Three Mile Island accident in the US and the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Russia.

By the early 1990s, the fast reactor programs in the US, the UK, and Germany had all been abandoned. France continued for a few more years, finally closing &nbsp, its SuperPhenix in 1998 and Phenix in 2009 and in 2019 also canceled its ASTRID sodium-cooled fast reactor demonstrator design project.

Although there are now renewed interest in private company initiatives in Europe and the US, both through collaborative projects and government funding, it is still in its early stages of development and probably decades away from being implemented.

Case study: the UK’s newcleo

The UK-based Newcleo is a prime example of a start-up company that promises swift technological advancement. Since its launch in 2021, it has been very active, signing a long list of agreements, acquisitions and collaborations but has produced very little technical information. Newcleo, who is currently working on a small lead-cooled fast reactor ( LFR ), claims the reactor’s design “has been optimized over the last 20 years,” but provides no further information.

In December 2023, newcleo said it had been selected as part of the” Innovative Nuclear Reactors” call for projects under the” France 2030″ investment plan, and aimed to commission the LFR-30 by 2030, along with a pilot unit for the manufacture and multi-recycling of mixed oxide ( mox ) fuel for fast reactors.

Following the construction of the LFR-30 and mox plant in France, newcleo plans to construct a 200 MWe first-of-a-kind commercial unit ( LFR-AS-200 ) in the UK by 2033.

Currently, LFR technology remains at the pre-conceptual stage except in &nbsp, Russia, which is constructing the world’s first lead-cooled small FNR ( Brest-OD-300 ) as part of a facility to demonstrate an on-site closed fuel cycle, including novel fuel fabrication.

This reactor, based on decades of complex research and development, and supported by the entire Russian nuclear industry, is due to begin operation in 2029. By contrast, newcleo’s technology remains on the drawing board and construction of its LFR-30 by 2030 and the LFR-AS-200 by 2033 would be little short of miraculous.

Nevertheless, newcleo has been very busy commercially. It completed a 300 million euro ($ 331 million ) equity raise in June 2022 after raising an initial capital raise of$ 118 million and acquiring Hydromine Nuclear Energy, and contracted France’s Orano to prepare feasibility studies for a mox production plant.

Newcleo and Italy’s Enel signed a cooperation agreement in March 2023 to work together on projects involving nuclear technology. In its first NPP, Newcleo’s agreement to secure an option for Enel as an investor was included in the pact.

Following a further equity raise of up to 1 billion euros, Newcleo and Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri and certification company RINA entered nuclear applications for shipping in July 2023.

A memorandum of understanding was signed with the UK’s National Nuclear Laboratory for collaboration on advanced nuclear R&amp, D. The following month, Newcleo agreed to purchase the shares of French nuclear pumps group Pompes Rütschi and Rütschi Fluid.

October 2023 saw newcleo sign a cooperation agreement with Italy’s Tosto Group, a manufacturer of equipment for the chemicals, oil and gas and energy sectors. Additionally, the UK-based Servizi Ricerche e Sviluppo and Fucina Italia, both of which are focused on the creation of nuclear systems using liquid lead technology, have been acquired by the Italian company.

In November, a five-year agreement was signed with the London School of Economics & Political Science to carry out cutting-edge research into the economics of energy policy. At the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris in December 2023, Newcleo and Assystem, Ingérop, and Onet Technologies announced three strategic partnerships to advance technology in France.

A strategic and industrial partnership with French start-up Naarea was signed in January 2024 to support the development of Generation IV FNRs. This came a few days after an agreement with Italy-based MAIRE subsidiaries, NextChem Tech and Tecnimont, to use newcleo’s reactors to decarbonize the chemical industry.

In March 2024 a strategic partnership was launched with Viaro Energy, a London-based independent upstream energy company. The partnership aims to encourage the oil and gas industry’s decarbonization through the use of advanced modular reactors in the future.

Following feasibility studies, the companies aim to jointly deploy newcleo’s 200MWe LFR “at chosen sites within Viaro’s portfolio”. Viaro also directly invested in Viaro by acquiring shares in its most recent capital raise.

In April 2024, a partnership agreement was signed with the French Alternative Energies &amp, Atomic Energy Commission ( CEA ) to develop Newcleo’s LFR.

The Nuclear Industry Association, the UK’s nuclear trade association, recently applied for a justification decision for Newcleo’s LFR-AS-200.

Before any new class or practice involving ionizing radiation can be introduced into the UK, the government must make a decision in this regulatory process. It serves as a prelude to upcoming regulatory procedures and does not constitute a permit for the completion of a particular project. &nbsp,

Nevertheless, Stefano Buono, newcleo’s CEO, said this was” an important milestone in our development program and a vital step forward in our delivery plan for the UK”. Newcleo has unmistakable big ideas. We continue to advance our UK plans at a steady rate, according to Bono, adding that we hope to have our first-ever commercial reactor operational by 2033.

When investment trumps tech development

Since 2020, when IAEA published its SMR book, a myriad of new companies similar to newcleo have appeared. Some of these are spin-offs of well-known research organizations, such as:

• Blue Capsule ( spun out of the French Alternative Energies &amp, Atomic Energy Commission ),
• Steady Energy ( spun out of Finland’s VTT Technical Research Centre ) and
• Thorizon ( as spelled out by the NRG research institute in the Netherlands ).

Some have collaborated with well-known energy companies and/or received funding from government organizations like the France 2030 National Investment Plan, Great British Nuclear, and US Department of Energy.

However, they have all had to concentrate a lot of their efforts on gaining this support and pursuing private investment to the detriment of developing their technologies. Very few projects have advanced beyond the design stage, despite the considerable effort put into creating designs to entice funding. Newcleo is a shining illustration of this phenomenon.

It is undoubtedly no coincidence that the only SMRs that are active are in China and Russia, where there is strong state support for technological advancement and little hope of a quick profit. It is necessary to take the long view in order to develop new, especially complex advanced technologies.

Russia began working on its floating NPP in 2009, and it has continued despite significant technical and economic challenges. Numerous renowned research institutes and design bureaus provided input for the project.

By contrast, the new start-up businesses in Europe and the US must operate in a business environment where even governments demand a return on their investments. Hardly surprising, then, that many lose focus.

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