Trump’s ball of confusion bedeviling global markets – Asia Times

Global traders are faced with a string each new month that they must play out in real time. As the Donald Trump 2.0 administration hits the ground running in 2025, punters will fight three.

They are: the direction of the US dollar, Xi Jinping’s ideas for the renminbi, and how business tensions may play out in the end.

Making matters worse, each relies in piece on three more imponderables: Trump’s propensity for&nbsp, plan chaos, how China might reply, and the ways in which Washington might react against Beijing’s retaliation— and vice versa.

” As we step into 2025, the global market stands at a perilous juncture, greatly shaped by an overall theme: uncertainty”, says Marcello Estevao, chief economist at the Institute of International&nbsp, Finance.

Estevao adds that “from political choices to plan implementations, the lack of quality emanates mostly from the new Trump presidency. This confusion extends far beyond the United States, permeating world markets, business relationships and regulatory systems”.

This year, Jerome Powell’s board successfully defied the leader, adding urgency to the first wildcard. Trump stated to the crowd in Davos earlier this month that he would “demand that interest rates drop soon.”

In the days before the Fed’s January 29 determination to remain touch, Trump let it be known that lower levels are a vital second-term goal. &nbsp, Team Powell&nbsp, ignored the jawboning, sparking an instant response. Trump even accused&nbsp, Powell’s team&nbsp, of letting diversity, equity and inclusion ( DEI ) considerations get in the way.

As Trump wrote on cultural media:” If the Fed had spent less time on DEI, female ideology,’ clean’ power and false climate change, inflation would never have been a problem”.

Trump complained that “because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the difficulty they created with inflation, I will do it by unleashing American power output, slashing rules, rebalancing global trade and reigniting American manufacturing”.

Investors know better than to reject Trump’s babblings. In his first word from 2017 to 2021, Trump went after his hand-picked Fed chair early and often. Trump encouraged Powell to reverse the Fed’s tightening pattern and reduce costs in 2019. It worked.

Since then, Trump has made a place of slamming the Fed at every opportunity. On the campaign route last October, &nbsp, Trump&nbsp, mocked Powell’s Fed. ” I think it ‘s&nbsp, the&nbsp, greatest job in government”, Trump&nbsp, told&nbsp, Bloomberg. ” You show up to&nbsp, the&nbsp, department once a month and you say,’ this state flip a coin ‘ and everybody talks about you like you’re a heaven”.

Trump&nbsp, even argues that leaders should have a strong claim in financial decisions. ” The Federal Reserve is a very&nbsp, interesting&nbsp, thing and it’s kind of gotten it wrong a lot”, Trump told an audience next year.

He added that,” I feel&nbsp, the&nbsp, leader should have at least stayed that, yeah. I feel that clearly. I think that, in my situation, I made a lot of money. I was extremely prosperous. And I believe I have a better sense of instinct than those who would frequently serve as the president of the Federal Reserve.

Commandeering&nbsp, Fed policy&nbsp, choices may be a way to weaken the money. Trump and his officials make it clear that the Fed’s liberation is in jeopardy. The” Project&nbsp, 2025″ scheme that Republican operatives cooked up for Trump 2.0 includes curbing the Fed’s autonomy.

Some economists believe that a part of the reason for lower rates is because Trump is more easily finance his governmental programs. The$ 1.7 trillion tax cut that Trump signed in his first term and additional cuts that his Republican party is considering are among them.

With the federal loan now topping$ 36 trillion, Trump’s management will need to keep costs as low as possible. However, Trump and the Fed may soon have a strained relationship, which could lead to dollar-neutrality.

The yuan string may be quite&nbsp, Trump-dependent, also. The Xi government is currently restraining itself from stifling the renminbi for trade advantage. Investors have a unique view of China’s path, betting on a strongly lower exchange rate.

In recent months, the difference between 10-year royal Chinese bill provides and similar US securities reached an unprecedented&nbsp, 300&nbsp, basis&nbsp, points. Despite Team Xi’s storm of signal efforts, that’s despite. It suggests owners think&nbsp, China’s worst move of deflation&nbsp, since the late 1990s amid the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis is here to stay.

It suggests, also, that investors think a Taiwanese devaluation was soon rock world markets.

The People’s Bank of China has been keeping a lid on the renminbi for a variety of factors. One goal is to maintain Beijing’s current efforts to devalue the financial system. PBOC Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, may fear that cutting costs does incentivize poor banking and saving decisions.

Another: Property developers could mistake as a result of a weaker yuan because they find it more difficult to pay off offshore debt. Global traders are now keeping an eye on China Vanke’s cash issues.

Putting&nbsp, renminbi internationalization&nbsp, in trouble is another issue. The Xi’s government has been working to improve the dollar’s use in industry and finance for almost a decade.

Beijing stepped up cooperation with the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa— and International South countries to tilt away from the dollar-centric world order.

Reverting to the old beggar-thy-neighbor guidelines may irritate foreign investors. And tarnished the dollar’s chances of securing reserve-currency position.

A weaker rmb could lead to the belief that Japan, South Korea, and other leading Asian nations have the right to ingrain them on trade prices. That could lead to a turbulent descent in money markets. The Trump White House, which is in danger of starting the biggest trade conflict in world past, do not ignore that.

The Trump issue feeds into string No 3: where trade hostilities might keep the&nbsp, world economy&nbsp, by the end of 2025.

This is unquestionably the least foreseeable policy outlook. Trump, after all, continues to change his mind about the direction of US tariffs. One day, they’re coming. The next day, Trump is stating that he hopes taxes on Chinese goods won’t be necessary.

” For the sake of business certainty and visibility, particularly for small businesses, figure out what you’re doing with tariffs as quickly as possible”, Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. ” Right now, it’s just a&nbsp, giant global cloud&nbsp, overhead that has businesses around the world on edge”.

The US economy, says Desmond Lachman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, “is not an economic island, and serious economic problems abroad could come back to harm our financial system, our export sector and adversely impact our companies ‘ earnings”.

According to US media reports, the billionaire brigade surrounding Trump’s second administration is lobbying Trump not to start a&nbsp, tariff arms race&nbsp, with Beijing. The impact of global growth, aside from being inflationary for the US, could devastate the bottom lines of businesses from Amazon to Apple to Tesla.

According to economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, “any of these suggested tariffs would lead to a rebound in consumer price inflation this year, taking it even higher above target and making it more difficult for the Fed to resume loosening monetary policy.”

II F’s Estevao adds that” the complex interplay of these factors has already begun to reshape expectations for growth, inflation, and investment. The early days of the Trump administration’s second term have been marked by a flurry of executive orders and&nbsp, policy signals&nbsp, that underscore its intent to recalibrate US trade and immigration policies. The administration has indicated plans to target key industries, including European automobiles and Asian electronics, despite not having any new tariffs yet in place.

So far, Trump is keeping markets guessing on China tariffs. Though Canada and Mexico could be hit with&nbsp, 25 % levies&nbsp, on February 1, China appears to be getting a reprieve. Question is, can it last? Many policymakers, investors, and corporate CEOs are hopeful that Trump will prioritize a significant US-China trade agreement over tariffs.

According to ING Bank’s chief economist for China, Lynn Song believes that Trump’s trade war threats are merely” a bargaining chip” in achieving his China policy objectives, which include limiting the flow of fentanyl, agreeing to a deal for a TikTok sale, etc.

Team Trump also may realize that today’s China is markedly less reliant on the US economy than in 2017, when Trump’s first term began, notes economist Louis Gave at Gavekal Dragonomics. China, Gave argues, “is probably more productive than any economy has ever been”.

China’s innovative game, meanwhile, is on display with the sudden emergence of DeepSeek&nbsp, as an artificial intelligence game changer. Nvidia’s shares alone lost$ 600 billion, the biggest deluge of red ink in corporate history.

Investors are pondering how to invest in the remainder of 2025 as a result of the general stock plunge. Vivek Arya, an analyst at Bank of America, says many clients “view the recent selloff as an enhanced buy opportunity” for Nvidia shares.

Others sense that this” Sputnik moment” in AI speaks to China’s huge investments in semiconductors, electric vehicles, renewable energy, robotics, biotechnology, aviation, high-speed rail and other sectors finally gaining traction in ways the Trump 2.0 gang might not realize.

However, asset classes across asset classes will be in control of how this trifecta of risks develops this year. And how much of the dollar, yuan, and Trumpian assaults on the global trading system change.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Glaring and widening gap in Asia justice – Asia Times

The Asia-Pacific area is a powerful gateway of economic growth and individual development. Network tower is rising, life expectancy is increasing, hunger is declining, health care and education, albeit with some limitations, are improving.

By contrast, quite remarkable progress is lacking in some areas of management, no least the rule of law and access to justice. In the Asia-Pacific, where millions of people are denied their legal rights, protracted prison without trial is common, and where the court systems frequently lack integrity, transparency, and transparency, the justice system remains a place.

Not everyone is treated equally in court or before a court. In some Asia-Pacific states, women face widespread prejudice, most vividly in Afghanistan. They do not have the same access to authorities as men do, and their judgments frequently disregard their statements and rights. They also do not have the same property rights and inheritance rights as men.

Also, excluded and minority neighborhoods – such as indigenous cultures, persons with disabilities, and remote and displaced populations find access to justice to be a difficult problem, especially in matters of civil justice. And some people in conflict-ridden nations like Myanmar are left without access to formal fairness systems.

Justice is more than regulations and courthouses, it is the basis of capital, respect and resilience. It is a crucial component of social cohesion and unity in areas. Justice is a common fine that must be provided to all, just like it is with healthcare and education.

When righteousness is denied, it is not only an individual who suffers—it is the very fabric of society that is affected. Injustice perpetuates cycles of poverty and isolation, destabilizes communities, and undermines public trust.

Unfairness compounded by corruption, financial crises, and poverty ignites hate, that drives people to rally in the roads, as witnessed just in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Building on fundamental principles, the justice gap in Asia’s then prosperous development story needs to be filled.

Justice systems may be visible and fair to everyone, going beyond traditional authorities. Proper legal systems should coexist more closely with indigenous and conventional laws that have for centuries been the core of community justice across Asia and the Pacific.

Justice for all requires greater appreciation of conventional justice systems that promote diversity and trust, as well as typical law. Inspiration and potential for propagation are provided by powerful examples.

Bangladesh’s Village Courts, for example, enable remote communities to effectively handle daily disputes and develop trust and fairness by providing attainable and reasonably priced justice in remote areas.

Other mechanisms for dispute resolutions you improve justice and, in movement contexts, ease tension. In the Kachin state of Myanmar and the Cox’s Bazar, where local negotiators and civil society organizations are negotiating housing, property, and property rights, as well as work problems, this has happened in the Rohingya tents.

Legitimate assistance and having access to data are a neglected tool for improving justice. During the Covid-19 pandemic, this view proved effective, in countries like Sri Lanka and Fiji, where technology facilitated increased access to legal information, assistance, and guidance, streamlined case management, and addressed the issue of pretrial detention.

Legal assistance and access to information must move away from being a component of a crisis response and toward mainstream justice, as can be seen from these examples.

Justice must also change in order to deal with pressing issues that have been ruled out of court for far too long. Environmental protection and climate change are two of the most obvious examples. In today’s world, justice for the planet is inseparable from justice for the people.

Farmers are losing their land as a result of rising seas, homes are destroyed, and livelihoods are ruined, and air pollution threatens the health of millions of people.

At a recent United Nations Conference on Inclusive Justice Pathways for People and Planet, Richa Shrestha, a young Indigenous climate activist from Nepal, posed a powerful question:” As a law student, I learned to defend freedom of speech and political assembly. But how do I defend the air we breathe”?

Environmental harm, conflict, climate-induced displacement, exclusion, and inequality are not unrelated issues, they are deeply intertwined, leaving millions vulnerable and deprived of basic human rights. Legal frameworks must, therefore, evolve to recognize and enhance environmental justice, address climate-related disputes, and the competence of tribunals linked to environmental cases.

States are currently being sued by citizens all over the world for failing to uphold their legal obligations to protect citizens from climate and environmental issues.

The European Court of Human Rights ruled in April of last year that Switzerland had violated the rights of its citizens by failing to address climate change, setting a precedent globally. Similarly, in 2021, Germany’s highest court delivered a historic ruling that deemed the government’s climate legislation insufficient for lacking detailed emission reduction targets beyond 2030.

In Asia and the Pacific, momentum for environmental justice is also growing. Since 2017, there have been more than double the number of climate change-related legal cases in the world, with about a third coming from Asia and the Pacific.

In December 2024, the International Court of Justice held hearings on governments ‘ legal obligations to protect the environment and combat climate change, following a historic 2023 UN resolution spearheaded by Vanuatu, Pacific students and 17 other countries, including Samoa, Vietnam, Micronesia and New Zealand.

The court’s decision is anticipated to be a turning point in climate justice, possibly putting international commitments into action, in 2025.

A legitimate right and a pressing need are justice systems that are fair, truly centered on the needs of the people they are meant to serve in Asia and the Pacific.

Christophe Bahuet is deputy regional director for&nbsp, Asia&nbsp, and the&nbsp, Pacific&nbsp, and director, &nbsp, UNDP&nbsp, Bangkok Regional Hub.

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DeepSeek: Chinese AI model overtakes ChatGPT to top app charts

DeepSeek, the top-rated free app on Apple’s App Store in the US, UK, and China, has overtaken ChatGPT and another AI competitors.

Since its January release, the app has soared in popularity, challenging the widely held notion that America is the invincible head of the Artificial industry.

It is powered by the open-source DeepSeek-V3 design, which its scientists say was developed for less than$ 6m- significantly less than the trillions spent by competitors.

However, others in the AI storage have disputed this assertion.

After DeepSeek-R1 was launched earlier this month the company boasted of “performance on par with” one of ChatGPT maker OpenAI’s latest models – when used for tasks such as maths, coding and natural language reasoning.

Silicon Valley venture capitalist and Donald Trump advisor Marc Andreessen described DeepSeek-R1 as “AI’s Sputnik moment”, in a reference to the first artificial Earth satellite that was launched by the Soviet Union in 1957.

Advanced bits enable AI types like DeepSeek and ChatGPT to be trained.

However, the US government has tightened its ban on selling sophisticated cards to China since 2021.

Chinese AI engineers have shared their labor with each other and experimented with new techniques to the systems in order to continue their work without constant supplies of imported developed chips.

As a result, AI types now require significantly less processing power than they did before. Additionally, it means that they cost significantly less than what was formerly believed possible, which has the ability to destroy the sector.

Shares in AI-related firms based in the US, such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta were lower on Monday morning.

According to some estimates, DeepSeek training will cost less than the typical US AI companies.

Vey-Sern Ling, a Singapore-based technology capital advisor, told the BBC:” It could possibly undermine the investment case for the entire Artificial supply chain, which is driven by substantial spending from a small number of hyperscalers.

Citi, a major bank on Wall Street, warned that while DeepSeek may challenge the strong positions of American companies, such as OpenAI, Chinese firms ‘ issues might hinder their growth.

” We estimate that in an undoubtedly more stringent environment, US ‘ access to more sophisticated chips is an benefit”, its analysts said in a statement.

Last week, a consortium of US tech firms and foreign investors announced The Stargate Project, a company which is putting $500bn into AI infrastructure in Texas.

The company was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng in Hangzhou, a city in southeastern China.

The 40-year-old, an information and electronic engineering graduate, also founded the hedge fund that backed DeepSeek.

He reportedly built up a store of Nvida A100 chips, now banned from export to China. Experts believe this collection – which some estimates put at 50,000 – led him to launch DeepSeek, by pairing these chips with cheaper, lower-end ones that are still available to import.

Mr. Liang recently attended a meeting between industry experts and the Chinese premier Li Qiang.

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Making sense of Musk in the White House – Asia Times

In the new Trump presidency, Elon Musk has gained a reputation as one of the most powerful and contentious powerbrokers. He campaigned alongside Donald Trump throughout the nation and contributed at least US$ 277 million of his own funds to his success.

What does the world’s richest people hope to receive in return from this substantial investment of time and money? Criticism has raised the question of whether Musk’s support for Trump is merely a simple business transaction, with Musk anticipating receiving political favors.

Or does it represent Musk’s personal fairly held social views, and probably personal political ambition?

From left to alt-right

It’s challenging to understand and track how Musk’s social beliefs have changed over time. He’s difficult to pin down, mostly by style.

Musk’s present X supply, for instance, is a bewildering mixture of far-right conspiracy theories about emigration, clips of liberal economist Milton Friedman notice about the dangers of prices, and advertisements for Tesla.

Previously, Musk claims to have been a left-libertarian. He says he voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Musk claims that as the Democratic party has shifted more to the left over time, giving him a more skewed political outlook than the Democratic party.

Essential to Musk’s political change, at least by his own accounts, is his alienation from his trans child, Vivian Jenna Wilson. After Vivian’s change, Musk claimed she was “dead, killed by the woke thinking virus”. She is very much intact.

He’s since frequently signaled his opposition to trans rights and gender-affirming attention, and diversity, equity and inclusion policies more widely.

However, if the mere presence of a transgender man in his home was enough to elicit a political hegemony, Musk was already on a far-right path.

It makes more sense to understand Musk’s changing politics as part of a much more recent phenomenon known as” the libertarian to alt-right pipeline” than to react to a change in the Democratic Party.

The political technology, explained

Left-wing and right-wing ideologies have previously been the norm.

Left libertarian help monetary policies of limited state, such as cutting taxes and social spending, and restructuring more widely. This is combined with liberal social procedures, such as wedding justice and drug legalization.

By comparison, right-libertarians support the same set of financial plans but hold liberal social landscapes, such as opposing abortion right and celebrating loyalty. The Libertarian Party in America has previously adopted a tense middle ground between the two wires.

The previous century, although, has seen the Libertarian Party, and libertarian more frequently, walk firmly to the right. In particular, some libertarians have played leading jobs in the alt-right activity.

The alt-right or “alternative correct” refers to the new resurgence of far-right social activities opposing diversity, gender equality and diversity, and supporting white patriotism.

The alt-right is a very website movement with its top activists renowned for “edgelording” and “internet trolling,” which is the posting of content that is questionable and provocative to purposefully stoke debate and garner attention.

Though some libertarians have resisted the move of the alt-right, many have been swept along the network, including notable leaders in the action.

Musk Nazi parades

Despite the chaotic posts and Nazi parades, this theoretical discussion can be useful in understanding what Musk’s principles are.

In financial terms, Musk remains a limited-government republican. He advocates lowering fees, lowering government spending, and repealing restrictions, particularly those that restrict his company’s ability to operate.

These objectives are the focus of his formal role as head of the” Department of Government Efficiency” ( also known as DOGE ) in the Trump administration. Musk has suggested that in cutting government spending, he will particularly target diversity, equity and inclusion ( DEI ) initiatives. This is the alt-right impact on screen.

Alt-right tastes are most noticeable, yet, in Musk’s net image. Musk has purposefully stoked discussion on X by promoting and engaging with light nationalists and racist conspiracy theories.

For instance, he has strongly spoken to far-right figures who support the racist” Great Replacement theory.” According to this theory, Jews are urging mass movement to the world’s north as part of a deliberate effort to eradicate the white race.

More late, Musk has endorsed the far-right in Germany. Additionally, he’s shared clips from well-known white supremacists that detail the prejudiced” Muslim grooming groups” crime theory in the United Kingdom.

Whether Musk really believes these absurd prejudiced conspiracy theories is, in many ways, useless.

Instead, Musk’s public comments are better understood as reflecting scientist Harry Frankfurt’s popular concept of “bullshit“. For Frankfurt, “bullshit” refers to statements made to impress or enrage, in which the speaker is merely uninterested in whether or not the statement is accurate.

Much of Musk’s online persona is part of a deliberate alt-right populist strategy to stoke controversy, upset” the left”, and then claim to be a persecuted victim when criticised.

Theory vs practice

Though Musk’s public statements might fit nicely into contemporary libertarianism, there are always contradictions when putting ideology into practice.

For example, despite Musk’s oft-stated preference for limited government, it’s well documented that his companies have received extensive subsidies and support from various governments.

Under a president who is primarily transactional, like Trump, Musk anticipates that this special treatment will continue.

The vexed issue of immigration also presents some contradictions.

Both Trump and Musk repeatedly criticized immigration to the US throughout the campaign. According to Musk, the far-right Great Replacement theory’s themes were reversed when Musk claimed that Democrats had purposefully “replace” the country’s existing electorate with” compliant illegals.”

Musk has argued that Trump should continue to have types of skilled immigration, such as H1-B visas, after the election. This angered more explicit white supremacists, such as Trump advisor Laura Loomer.

Musk’s motives in arguing for the visas are not humanitarian. Temporary workers can enter the country for up to six years with H1-B visas, which leave them entirely dependent on the sponsoring organization. It’s a situation some have called “indentured servitude“.

These visas have been extensively used in the technology sector, including in businesses controlled by both Trump and Musk.

An unsteady alliance

What else can we anticipate from Musk now that he has both political standing and influence?

Musk claimed that Musk’s plan to use DOGE to reduce the US budget by$ 2 trillion would represent a revolutionary change in government. It also seems highly unlikely.

Expect Musk to concentrate instead on provoking debate by reversing DEI initiatives and other politically sensitive initiatives, like those that promote women’s reproductive rights.

Musk will undoubtedly make use of his political influence to protect the interests of his businesses. Following Trump’s re-election, Tesla’s shares reached record highs, suggesting that Musk will be a significant financial beneficiary of the second Trump administration.

In the end, Musk will undoubtedly make the most of his new position to keep himself visible in the general public. This crucial point could cause Musk to conflict with Trump, who is an expert in shaping the media cycle.

Apparently, Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have already got into a fight, and they will no longer co-lead DOGE together.

It’s still to be seen how stable the partnership between Trump and Musk is, and whether the two billionaires ‘ egos and goals can still coexist.

If the alliance persists, it will play a significant role in shaping what many people refer to as the “new gilded age” of political corruption and rising inequality.

Henry Maher is lecturer in politics, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Move over CHIPS Act, Stargate is the future – Asia Times

The US$$ 500 billion Stargate AI system project, which was announced by US President Donald Trump, has sparked media coverage and stoked industry, deflecting attention from the less attractive details of TSMC’s initial chip factory’s opening, and suffocate the more contentious debate over the future of America’s high-tech restoration.

On January 21, the day after his inauguration, Donald Trump made an appearance with Oracle’s Larry Ellison, Softbank’s Masayoshi Son, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman to make an announcement that artificial intelligence will be the “largest AI system job by much in story… creating over 100, 000 National work about immediately,” as Trump put it. Given some of the responses it has generated, the film went “viral” – a suitable information.

In Abilene, Texas, 10 properties measuring half a million square foot are currently under construction, with additional 10 more on the drawing board, and additional ones will be constructed at locations that are being evaluated nationwide. These data locations may be full of machines equipped with Nvidia’s fresh Blackwell AI chips, which are made by Taiwan’s TSMC, the world’s top silicon manufacturer.

” I’m gonna support, a bit, through emergency pronouncements”, said Trump, “because we have an emergency, we have to get this thing built”.

” They have to make a lot of power, and we’ll make it possible for them to get that generation done pretty easily”, he added, “at their personal crops if they want”.

In other words, Trump intends to supersede power regulations that may put off the project, leading to a significant increase in power generation capacity driven by the purchase intentions of a select few big high-tech companies.

Oracle’s Ellison said,” Thank you, Mr President. We certainly couldn’t do this without you”. Altman and Son shared the sentiment. And they probably couldn’t, at least not as quickly and efficiently.

If Joe Biden or Kamala Harris had been attempting the project in the White House, it would likely have been hampered by attempts at social engineering and unionization of the workforce. For the same reason, Stargate is based in Texas, not California.

Masayoshi Son said,” We wouldn’t have decided, unless you won. Yesterday, we agreed. We signed. To achieve this, we would immediately begin deploying 100 billion dollars with the intention of making 500 billion dollars within the next four years, within your mandate.

As explained by OpenAI, the initial equity investments in Stargate will come from SoftBank, Oracle, OpenAI and MGX, the technology fund based in Abu Dhabi. The lead partners are SoftBank and OpenAI, with OpenAI acting as the company’s operational manager and SoftBank as its financial advisor. Softbank’s Son will be the project’s chairman.

Nvidia, Arm ( the British semiconductor design company owned primarily by Softbank ), Microsoft, Oracle and OpenAI are the project’s technology partners. Oracle, Nvidia and OpenAI will build and operate the computing system.

OpenAI has long-standing relationships with both Nvidia and Microsoft. In Japan, Softbank and Nvidia have partnered to set up a nationwide AI grid.

Following Trump to the podium, Ellison, Son and Altman talked about healthcare-related applications from AI-enabled cross-referencing of health records and procedures to cancer detection and treatment, including the development of mRNA cancer vaccines.

But there are other possibilities, including factory automation and national defense. The name Stargate, of course, is reminiscent of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite company.

The stock market approves of the concept. Oracle’s share price was up 7.2 % on Tuesday and another 4.6 % in after-hours trading. The share price of Softbank Group increased by more than 10 % on Wednesday and by another 5 % on Thursday in Japan ( across the International Date Line ). The share prices of Nvidia, TSMC, Microsoft and server maker Super Micro also rose.

Stargate is pitched as a made-in-America-for-America project, but the Nvidia AI processors at the core of the data centers will be made by Taiwan’s TSMC, at first entirely in Taiwan, then partly in the US.

At its new factory in Arizona, where TSMC is most likely to manufacture integrated circuits, on January 10, TSMC began producing integrated circuits for Apple. AMD and Nvidia are likely to be its new customers. For the first time in our country’s history, our country’s leaders are producing cutting-edge four-nanometer chips on American soil, making American workers on par with Taiwan in terms of yield and quality, according to incoming commerce chief Gina Raimondo.

TSMC Chairman and CEO C C Wei, speaking to investors on the company’s 2024 earnings call on January 16, confirmed this:

” We were able to pull ahead the production schedule of our first fab in Arizona, building on the successful result of our earlier engineering wafer production. Our first fab, using N4 process technology and yield comparable to those of our fabs in Taiwan, has already entered high-volume production in 4Q ’24. We anticipate a smooth beginning of the manufacturing process because we are confident that our factories in Arizona and Taiwan will offer the same level of manufacturing quality and dependability.

Wei added that “our plans for the second fab and third fab in Arizona are also on track.” Based on the needs of our customers, these fabs will use even more advanced technologies like our N3, N2, and A16.

In plain English, this means that TSMC will be making 4nm chips in Arizona starting this year and progress to 3nm, 2nm and 1.6nm ( 16-angstrom ), probably by the end of the decade. In terms of 3nm production, TSMC is already ahead of Samsung and Intel, who are both likely to be 1 nm and smaller. TSMC currently makes Nvidia’s Blackwell AI processors using its 4nm process.

All of these process technologies were and are being developed and produced in Taiwan, close to the company’s R&amp, D, and where the procedure is well-established and the capacity is much larger. This suggests that regardless of any agreement Trump has with China, he won’t want to disrupt Stargate’s main production.

A retired Silicon Valley executive and advisor to the US government on the subject of high-tech competitiveness said,” The game with the current administration is zero-sum,” in response to the three executives ‘ praise for Trump.

And that it is given that Trump has already replaced and exceeded$ 500 billion in government funding after cutting more than$ 300 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act and Department of Energy loan programs under his administration, which were then replaced by$ 300 billion from the private sector.

A West Coast venture capitalist who is not a fan of Trump wrote in an email that” It’s all part of the mad scramble for more computing power and energy to fuel it… Remember Trump’s first term. He enjoys planning big announcements, which credit him with making investments that were already planned or that never occur. Everyone tries to ingratiate themselves with Dear Leader, but it’s all part of that. Because that’s what you have to do in an autocratic state” .&nbsp,

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, wrote on X,” They don’t actually have the money. SoftBank has well under$ 10 billion secured. I have that on good authority”. However, if there is one thing Son excels at, it’s raising money. In 2017, Softbank launched the Vision Fund, a technology-focused venture capital fund with more than$ 100 billion in capital – the world’s largest such fund at the time.

For Musk, whose xAI competes with OpenAI and has taken it to court, Stargate is a powerful new competitor. And perhaps worse than that, Ellison, Son and Altman – high-tech moguls like himself – now also have Trump’s ear.

If the build-out of Stargate’s data centers proceeds according to plan, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are likely to lose their first-mover advantage and oligopolistic profit margins in AI-related cloud computing. Oracle, which offers cloud computing services in 25 countries around the world, has a significant opportunity in this regard.

Another critic, physician and biochemist Robert Malone, has published an essay entitled” AI, mRNA, Cancer Vaccines and” Stargate”: Reality check. Curb your enthusiasm, and beware of grifters”.

He writes:” I can’t believe that we are being spoon-fed this hype from the likes of Oracle’s Larry Ellison… Having this guy lecture us on mRNA vaccines for cancer is over the top. &nbsp, This is so amazingly ( and dangerously ) naive that I can hardly believe I am hearing it”.

Maybe so, but Ellison, Son and Altman were delivering a pitch for AI infrastructure, not explaining the technology roadmaps of companies that will use their data centers. They may be overly optimistic, but they are genuinely interested in healthcare and think AI can contribute significantly to the analysis of sizable amounts of medical-related data.

Malone also criticizes “banking some brand-new” cancer moonshot” television programs named after science fiction TV shows.” So, is Stargate a wise use of money or a reckless boondoggle? In reality,$ 500 billion is nearly ten times the$ 52.7 billion in grants and loans provided by the CHIPS Act. Only time will tell.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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From innovation to production of new US defense systems – Asia Times

At all ranges of implementation, the US is in constant flux with global competition for significant security technologies. The US Department of Defense will implement new initiatives to increase the competitive range and level of British defence techniques.

The success of these initiatives will be evaluated by the rapid, better development that can outsmart the competition. In this regard, advanced manufacturing processes that create technology systems are of special value.

The issue is frequently delivering exceptional techniques within budget, but there is rarely a shortage of innovative ideas. Working within the restrictive technological and financial constraints of these programs calls for the skilled blending of numerous resources.

And the end result may be powerful systems that can be used in a variety of settings.

It has, of course, been done earlier. The remarkably successful NASA Apollo program, for instance, which brought the first people to the moon, is a perfect example. In response to the Soviet Union’s pioneering satellite systems, President John Kennedy launched the system.

Success came from a sizable pool of skills. And there were no buttons. Numerous cooperative programs forged a bridge between innovative research and pioneering professional development and production, which helped lead to the success of Apollo.

These well-executed cooperative programs enabled the transfer of novel ideas from facilities to practical use. These were not only ordinary goods; they had to conform to the strictest consistency requirements for spacecraft carrying astronauts.

The program’s extraordinary accomplishment was the rapid transition from ideas to space-qualified products that couldn’t fail without causing life to be lost.

I was involved in the creation and development of the solid-state microwave that served as the radio for the pilots ‘ landing on the moon to talk to the spacecraft that was orbiting the moon, and where they had to return and port once they reached the planet’s surface.

The system in the radio may not fail, and to maintain its reliability, fresh test and manufacturing techniques were developed. The sky landing vision was a flawless success for the micro television. It was all fresh, and individuals rose to the challenge.

This type of work was carried out frequently by many members. In this instance, the initial development was at a RCA&nbsp, labs where I worked, but the conversation game’s prime contractor did the full stereo design and production.

You never know where new thoughts will come from, so the purpose of this account is to emphasize the importance of including undiscovered entrepreneurs in engineering programs.

What made this example stand out as extraordinary is that my invention was the result of a conversation I had by chance with a NASA engineer to find out whether I needed a new device to remove a flawed one.

In a short period of time, NASA became aware that a trustworthy radio could be constructed, and revenue for my project almost arrived immediately. The soft transfer to a top-notch radio product manufacturer was what eventually made the new radio possible. This near connection is important.

What resources are available right now that will enable massive new defence projects? The most accomplished citizens work together, second, to put it another way. DARPA ( Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency ), which is funded by the Department of Defense, provides funding for technological studies in important areas.

The initiatives supported by DARPA have had amazing effects when supported by various organizations, including the success of artificial intelligence and the Internet.

The DARPA programs ‘ results are simply system enablers for military projects, which companies with the assets can use to fund weapons and systems production follow.

Now, there is a major concern. The number of top US defence companies has decreased from 51 to just five since the early 1990s. This means fewer assets involved in security plans, fewer entrepreneurs and less opposition.

Additionally, there are fewer business labs working for the DOD. The big corporate lab, like those of AT&amp, T, RCA and Xerox, have disappeared. Companies that once had a high level of entrepreneurs with significant innovative contributions have seen a drastic decline in number.

This issue is likely to prevent the development of significant new initiatives that require the highest level of technology. The answer is that more businesses may participate in the DoD purchasing method, while organizations like DARPA must continue to work together. And the best US skill may join.

I anticipate that new initiatives may require new businesses that value the development of high-performance technology under DoD contracts and the fact that such initiatives’ spin-offs will have significant effects on the sales of goods. This has been demonstrated over time, and it is likely to continue.

Henry Kressel is a technician, engineer, publisher and entrepreneur. He was in charge of directing the development of numerous significant, novel electronic equipment. He was the director of RCA Laboratories ‘ electronic research division and has long held private equity investments in technology businesses.

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Trump’s executive orders all about power and theater – Asia Times

In a piece of real social theatre, Donald Trump began his next president by signing a host of professional requests before a euphoric crowd of 20,000 in Washington on Monday.

The directions immediately reversed expanses of Biden administration policy and basically began what Trump christened a “golden years of America ” in his inaugural address.

But there are limits to what Trump may reach through for purchases. And they face a deeper necessity for the new supervision over how to deal with possible Republican in-fighting and a frantic people frightened for change.

What did Trump get?

Executive purchases are commonly used by US president at the beginning of their terms to immediately start implementing their plan.

Important orders signed on Trump’s second time included:

Here’s a summary of the remainder.

Because they are legally bound, professional orders are a powerful tool. Democratic and Republican leaders everywhere have been accused of despotic goal over their usage.

However, executive orders remain constrained by the authorities, Congress and public view. Birthright citizen, in specific, is protected by the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, but Trump’s get will undoubtedly encounter legal challenge.

Perhaps most important, executive orders can be swept away by a leader. Trump did this in dramatic fashion by revoking 78 Biden-era commands, many of which dealt with national diversity, equity and inclusion activities.

The limits of executive orders have been tested in recent years and surely will be repeatedly by Trump.

But there is political worth in issuing orders to show action, even if they are inevitably ineffective, reduced in scope or reversed. That was the situation with the legal wrangling over Trump’s travel restrictions on citizens of Muslim-majority places in 2017 and Biden’s student loan debt forgiveness plan.

Trump presumably recognized this in the dance of his executive commands on Monday. For example, the order aiming to “restore freedom of speech and end federal censorship ” is heavy on political rhetoric, but may have little practical effect.

Is the honeymoon next?

Trump is relishing his highest preference assessments and the usual post-election getaway enjoyed by most leaders.

But this aid was easily vanish if his followers ’ high expectations are not met rapidly. In this context, the executive orders were the fastest way to indicate progress on vital interests to an anxious state.

Across much of the US, fears over prices and failing facilities remain high. Less than 20 % of the land is satisfied with the direction of the country.

For a country hungry for change, there was tremendous appeal in Trump’s election promises to promptly stop foreign wars, curb rising inflation and tackle illegal immigration. But for campaign promises have frequently been short on details from Trump so far.

Half of Americans expect the price of everyday things to occur down during his administration– including almost nine in ten of his followers. Three-quarters even expect him to carry out large arrests.

However, the public remains divided on other parts of the Trump plan or does n’t know them.

The rapid and serious nature of professional orders are, therefore, an appealing option for Trump. He may show he is taking steps to meet his election promises while buying himself time to figure out thornier problems.

However, he runs the risk of losing people assist if the orders do not generate substantial shift. For this, he may have major legislative actions from Congress.

Uncomfortable alliance with Congress

Republicans power both chambers of Congress, as well as the White House. But the previously narrow margin of Republican power in the House of Representatives and the persistent thorns of the Senate filibuster could harm Trump’s legislative plan.

Until three intended jobs are filled in the House, the Republicans may not be able to obtain a second diplomat in a party-line voting. House Speaker Mike Johnson is now encountering barriers in consolidating help behind an all-encompassing “MAGA bill”, which he hopes to offer to Congress later this year.

In 2017, when Trump had a similarly pleasant Congress with a far more pleasant ratio, Republicans still struggled to unite behind a parliamentary plan. Big tax breaks were passed, but modifications to Obamacare and other objectives failed amid celebration bickering.

This paved the way for sweeping Democrat increases in the 2018 midterm elections — a pattern that could be repeated in 2026 depending on Republicans ’ progress in the next two years.

Like Barack Obama before him, Trump does turn to professional requests to avoid Congress, especially if Democrats lose control of the House in 2026. However, his executive order to halt the TikTok restrictions bypasses a bipartisan law passed by Congress last year and just upheld by the traditional Supreme Court.

For moves can produce friction with legislators– even those in his own party.

As late as Sunday, Johnson insisted the US “will enforce the law ” against TikTok. And two Democratic lawmakers warned against offering TikTok any type of improvement, which they claimed may include “no constitutional basis. ”

Groups between Republicans are also apparent over the possibility of taxes and the future of Trump’s immigration scheme.

For today, these tensions may get put off amid the ongoing opening euphoria. But they will eventually reemerge and could also result in a returning to congressional gridlock and inaction. Such delays could find much patience among Americans troubled for quick solutions to insurmountable problems.

Samuel Garrett is exploration affiliate, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Empty Biden threats, ‘smokescreen’ policy enabled Gaza horrors – Asia Times

This article was first published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning analytical news website.

Reporting features

  • Costs of silence:  Experts claim that Biden’s inaction led to widespread violence for human rights violations, including preventing aid deliveries even after obvious US warnings.
  • Empty challenges: &nbsp, Since October 7, 2023, Biden has repeatedly issued challenges that Israel ignored. US authorities tried to maintain consequences — but they don’t.
  • Internal dissention: The State Department ignored its own researchers and acted decisively on leaks. Some individual rights authorities said they were prevented from pursuing proof of Israeli crimes.

A smaller group of senior US animal rights officials met with a top established at President Joe Biden’s State Department in early November to produce one last, unwavering appeal: We must keep our word.

Weeks before, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the management delivered their most obvious order however to Israel, demanding the Israel Defense Forces allow hundreds more trucksloads of food and medicine into Gaza every day— or more. British law and Biden’s personal laws prohibit hands sales to countries that restrict humanitarian assistance. Israel had 30 times to act.

In the quarter that followed, the IDF was accused of vehemently defying the US, its most important ally. According to charitable organizations, the Israeli military “tightened its hold,” continued to encircle urgently needed help trucks, and forced 100, 000 Palestinians from North Gaza, compounding what had already become a terrible problems” to its worst stage since the war began,” according to the organizations.

Some attendees at the November meet — officials who help direct the State Department’s efforts to promote racial collateral, religious freedom and various high-minded principles of democracy — said the United States ‘ global credibility had been seriously damaged by Biden’s unfailing support of Israel. If there was ever a time to hold Israel responsible, one adviser at the conference told Tom Sullivan, the State Department’s consultant and a senior policy adviser to Blinken, it was now.

However, the choice had already been made. Sullivan said the date would probably pass without motion and Biden had remain sending shipments of bombs uninterrupted, according to two people who were in the meeting.

Those in the room inflated. ” Don’t our law, policy and morals demand it”? an attendee said to me later, reflecting on the decision once again to capitulate. What justifies this approach, exactly? There is no explanation they can articulate”.

Soon after the 30-day deadline was up, Blinken declared that Israelis had started following his instructions in good faith, all because of the pressure the US had put up.

That choice was immediately called into question. On November 14, a UN committee said that Israel’s methods in Gaza, including its use of starvation as a weapon, were” consistent with genocide”. Amnesty International went further and discovered that a genocide was taking place. The International Criminal Court also issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defense minister for the war crime of deliberately starving civilians, among other allegations. The warrants and the US and Israeli governments have rejected the genocide determination.

The October red line was the last one Biden laid down, but it wasn’t the first. His administration issued multiple threats, warnings and admonishments to Israel about its conduct after October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel, killed some 1, 200 people and took more than 250 hostages.

Government officials are concerned that the Israelis feel isolated as a result of Biden’s repeated, pointless threats.

Trump, who has made a raft of pro-Israel nominations, made it clear he wanted the war in Gaza to end before he took office and threatened that” all hell will break out” if Hamas did not release its hostages by then.

Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire deal on Wednesday after months of negotiations. While it will become clear over the next days and months exactly what the contours of the agreement are, why it happened now and who deserves the most credit, it’s plausible that Trump’s imminent ascension to the White House was its own form of a red line. Early reports suggest the deal looks similar to what has been on the table for months, raising the possibility that if the Biden administration had followed through on its tough words, a deal could have been reached earlier, saving lives.

Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute with a focus on US-Israel relations and a former official with the Palestinian Authority who provided advice on prior peace negotiations, said” Netanyahu’s conclusion was that Biden doesn’t have enough oomph to make him pay a price.” ” Part of it is that Netanyahu learned there is no cost to saying’ No’ to the current president”.

The world’s most powerful countries have long used the so-called red lines as a prominent foreign policy tool. They are communicated publicly in pronouncements by senior officials and privately by emissaries. They amount to rules of the road for friends and adversaries — you can go this far but no further.

Current and former US officials said the failure to enforce those lines in recent years has had consequences. One frequently cited example arose in 2012 when President Barack Obama told the Syrian government that using chemical weapons against its own people would change his calculus about directly intervening. Obama backpedaled and ultimately chose not to invade when Bashar al-Assad, the then president of Syria, launched rockets with chemical gas that killed hundreds of civilians anyway, according to critics, which increased the civil war’s soaring as local extremists seized on by recruiting locals.

Authorities in and outside government said the acquiescence to Israel as it prosecuted a brutal war will likely be regarded as one the most consequential foreign policy decisions of the Biden presidency. They say it undermines America’s ability to influence events in the Middle East while “destroying the entire edifice of international law that was put into place after WWII”, as Omer Bartov, a renowned]Israeli-American scholar of genocide, put it. Former State Department assistant secretary for the Middle East bureau, Jeffrey Feltman, expressed his concern that the majority of the Muslim world now views the US as “ineffective at best or complicit at worst in the large-scale civilian destruction and death.”

Biden’s warnings over the past year have also been explicit. The president vowed to stop providing Israelis with offensive bombs if they launched a significant invasion into Rafah, a city in the south of the country, last spring. He also told Netanyahu the US was going to rethink support for the war unless he took new steps to protect civilians and aid workers after the IDF blew up a World Central Kitchen caravan. And Blinken signaled that he would blacklist a notorious IDF unit for the death of a Palestinian-American in the West Bank if the soldiers involved were not brought to justice.

Israel repeatedly crossed the Biden administration’s red lines, according to interviews with government officials and outside experts. Each time, the US yielded and continued to send Israel’s military deadly weapons of war, approving more than$ 17.9 billion in military assistance since late 2023, by some estimates. The State Department recently disclosed to Congress a proposed$ 8 billion deal to sell Israeli munitions and artillery shells.

” It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the red lines have all just been a smokescreen”, said Stephen Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard Kennedy School and a preeminent authority on US policy in the region. ” The Biden administration decided to be all in and merely pretended that it was trying to do something about it”.

Blinken disputed this in a recent interview with The New York Times, saying that Netanyahu has listened to him by softening Israel’s most aggressive tactics, including in Rafah. He also argued there was a cost to even questioning the IDF openly. Hasas has resisted agreeing to a ceasefire and the release of hostages, according to Blinken,” when there has been public daylight between the United States and Israel and the perception that pressure is growing on Israel.”

He acknowledged that not enough humanitarian assistance has been reaching civilians and said the Israelis initially resisted the idea of allowing any food and medicine into Gaza— which would be a war crime— but Netanyahu relented in response to US pressure behind the scenes. Blinken backtracked later in the interview and suggested that the blocking of aid was not Israeli policy. He told the Times,” There’s a very different question about what was the intention.”

For this story, ProPublica spoke with scores of current and former officials throughout the year and read through government memos, cables and emails, many of which have not been reported previously. The interviews and records reveal why Biden and his top advisers resisted changing his policy despite the release of fresh evidence of Israeli abuses.

Throughout the contentious year inside the State Department, senior leaders repeatedly disregarded their own experts. They cracked down on leaks by threatening criminal investigations and classifying material that was critical of Israel. Some of the top Middle Eastern diplomats at the organization privately complained that Biden’s National Security Council had hampered them. The council also distributed a list of banned phrases, including any version of” State of Palestine” that didn’t have the word “future” first. Two human rights officials claimed they were unable to look into allegations of abuses in Gaza and the West Bank.

The State Department did not make Blinken available for an interview, but the agency’s top spokesperson, Matthew Miller, said in a statement that Blinken welcomes internal dissent and has incorporated it into his policymaking. ” The Department continues to encourage individuals to make their opinions known through appropriate channels”, he added. Miller disputed Miller’s claim that the agency has classified information for a reason other than national security.

Over the past year, reports have documented physical and sexual abuse in Israeli prisons, using Palestinians as human shields and razing residential buildings and hospitals. UNICEF once reported that at one point in the conflict, more than 10 children on average needed amputations every day. Israeli soldiers have videotaped themselves burning food supplies and ransacking homes. One IDF group reportedly said,” Our job is to flatten Gaza”.

Israel’s supporters, including those on the National Security Council, acknowledge the horrifying human trafficking, but claim that American weapons have helped it advance western interests in the area and shield itself from other foes. Indeed, Netanyahu has significantly diminished Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing many of the groups ‘ leaders. Then, late last year, when rebel fighters removed Assad from Syria, Iran’s” axis of resistance” suffered the most severe blow.

US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew told the Times of Israel he worried that a generation of young Americans will harbor anti-Israel sentiments into the future. He said he wished that Israel had done a better job at communicating how carefully it undertook combat decisions and calling attention to its humanitarian successes to counter a narrative in the American press that he considers biased.

Lew said,” The media that is presenting a pro-Hamas perspective is out right away telling a story.” ” It tells a story that is, over time, shown not to be completely accurate.’ 35 children were killed. Well, it wasn’t 35 children. It was many fewer”.

He continued,” The children who were killed turned out to be the children of Hamas fighters.”

The repercussions for the United States and the region will play out for years. Polls show Arab Americans are becoming more hostile toward their own government in Muslim-majority nations like Indonesia, the third-largest democracy in the world. Russia, before its black eye in Syria, and China have both sought to capitalize by entering business and defense deals with Arab nations. By the summer, State Department analysts in the Middle East sent cables to Washington expressing concerns that the IDF’s conduct would only inflame tensions in the West Bank and galvanize young Palestinians to take up arms against Israel. According to intelligence officials, terrorist organizations are recruiting based on the region’s anti-American sentiment, which they claim is at its highest level in recent memory.

The Israeli government did not answer detailed questions, but a spokesperson for the embassy in Washington, D. C., broadly defended Israel’s relationship with the US,” two allies who have been working together to push back against extremist, destabilizing actors”. According to the spokesperson, Israel is a country of laws, and its actions over the past 15 months “benefit the interests of the free world and the United States, opening up an opportunity for a better future for the Middle East in the wake of the tragic war started by Hamas.”

Next week, Trump will inherit a demoralized State Department, part of the federal bureaucracy from which he has pledged to cull disloyal employees. Grappling with the near-daily images of carnage in Gaza, many across the US government have become disenchanted with the lofty ideas they thought they represented.

One senior diplomat said,” This is the human rights atrocity of our time.” ” I work for the department that’s responsible for this policy. I consented to this. … I don’t deserve sympathy for it”.

The southern city of Rafah was supposed to be a safe haven for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who the IDF had forced from their homes in the north at the start of the war. When Biden learned that Netanyahu intended to invade the city this spring, he reaffirmed that if the Israelis succeeded in doing so, the US would stop providing them with offensive weapons.

” It is a red line”, Biden had said, marking the first high-profile warning from the US

Netanyahu still launched an invasion in May. Israeli tanks rolled into the city and the IDF dropped bombs on Hamas targets, including a refugee camp, killing dozens of civilians. Biden responded by pausing a shipment of 2, 000-pound bombs but otherwise resumed military support.

In response to the Geneva Conventions, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt its assault on the city in late May. Behind the scenes, State Department lawyers scrambled to come up with a legal basis on which Israel could continue smaller attacks in Rafah. In a May 24 email, the lawyers claimed that” there is room to argue that more scaled back/targeted operations, combined with better humanitarian efforts, would not meet that threshold.” While it’s not unreasonable for government lawyers to defend a close ally, critics say the cable illustrates the extreme deference the US affords Israel.

” The State Department has a whole raft of highly paid, very good lawyers to explain,’ Actually this is not illegal,’ when in fact it is”, said Ari Tolany, an arms trade authority and director at the Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank. Rules for thee and not for me

The administration says that it restrained Israel’s attack in Rafah. Lew claimed in a recent interview that the operation ultimately left fewer civilian casualties than expected. ” It was done in a way that limited or really eliminated the friction between the United States and Israel”, he added,” but also led to a much better outcome”.

Several experts told me international law is effectively discretionary for some countries. Aaron Miller, a career State Department diplomat who worked for decades as an advisor on Arab-Israeli negotiations, said,” American policy ignores it when it’s inconvenient and adheres to it when it’s convenient.” ” The US does not leverage or bring sustainable, credible, serious pressure to bear on any of its allies and partners”, he added,” not just Israel”.

Miller and others point out that the barbaric Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, sparked bipartisan support for Israel and made it much simpler for Biden to avoid holding the Israelis accountable for their retaliation.

There are other likely reasons for Biden’s unwillingness to impose any realistic limitations on Israel’s use of American weaponry since Oct. 7. For one, his career-long affinity for Israel — its security, people and the idea of a friendly democracy in the Middle East — is shared by many of the most powerful people in the country. The only thing that would remain is our commitment to our aid, I don’t even call it aid, our cooperation with Israel, Nancy Pelosi said in 2018, weeks before taking up her position as House speaker. That rationale aligned with the Democrats ‘ political goals during an election when they were wary of taking risks and upsetting large portions of the electorate, including the immensely powerful Israel lobby.

Officials from the State Department’s Middle East and communications divisions created a list of proposed public statements shortly after the ICJ’s order to address the Rafah invasion to state their concern for city residents. But Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, nixed almost all of them. He told the officials in a May 24 email that those on the White House’s National Security Council “aren’t going to clear” any recognition of the ruling or criticism of Israel.

That signaled early on that the State Department was putting policy into the backseat. In its place, the NSC — largely led by Jake Sullivan, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein — assumed a larger role. State Department officials repeatedly told me they felt marginalized this past year despite the NSC having grown significantly in size and influence over the past few decades.

” The NSC has final say over our messaging”, one diplomat said. ” All any of us can do is what they’ll allow us to do”.

The NSC did not schedule an interview with its senior leaders or respond to inquiries from ProPublica. Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser and brother to the State Department’s counselor, said recently it was difficult, for much of the past year,” to get the Israeli government to align with a lot of what President Biden publicly has been saying” about Gaza.

According to Sullivan, there are too many civilian casualties there, and Israel is frequently under both public and private pressure to improve the flow of humanitarian aid. ” We believe Israel has a responsibility — as a democracy, as a country committed to the basic principle of the value of innocent life, and as a member of the international community that has obligations under international humanitarian law — that it do the utmost to protect and minimize harm to civilians”.

During another internal State Department meeting in March, top regional diplomats voiced their frustrations about messaging and appearances. According to the notes from the conversation, Hady Amr, one of the government’s highest-ranking authorities on Palestinian affairs, said he was reluctant to speak up to large crowds about the administration’s Israel policy and that he had taken issue with a lot of it. He warned colleagues that the sentiment in Muslim communities was turning. Amr told them that the war has been” catastrophically bad for the US” from a public diplomacy perspective ( Amr did not respond to requests for comment ).

Another attendee at the meeting said they had been effectively sidelined by the NSC. A third said it was a huge amount of effort to even get permission to use the word” condemn” when talking about Israeli settlers demolishing Palestinians ‘ homes in the West Bank.

Such sanitizing language started to be used frequently. Alex Smith, a former contractor with the US Agency for International Development, said that at one point the State Department distributed NSC’s list of phrases that he and others weren’t allowed to use on internal presentations. For instance, they were meant to say “non-Israeli residents of Jerusalem” instead of” Palestinian residents of Jerusalem.” Another official told Smith in an email,” I would recommend not discussing]international humanitarian law ] at all without extensive clearances”.

A USAID spokesperson said in an email that the agency couldn’t discuss personnel matters, but the list of terms was given to the agency by the State Department as early as 2022, before the war in Gaza. According to the spokesperson, the list includes the” suggested terms that are in line with US diplomatic protocol.”

Deference to Israel is not new. When Israel is accused of violating human rights, the US has looked the other way for decades.

One of the most conspicuous paper tigers in American foreign policy is the Leahy Law, experts say. Passed more than 25 years ago, the law’s authors intended to force foreign governments to hold their own accountable for violations like torture or extrajudicial killings— or their military assistance would be restricted. The law made it possible to precisely target specific units when they faced credible allegations, preventing the US from having to detach entire nations from US-funded weapons and training. It’s essentially a blacklist.

Almost immediately, according to records, Israel received special treatment. In March 1998, IDF soldiers fired on journalists covering demonstrations in the West Bank city of Hebron. Congress asked the State Department, then led by Madeleine Albright, to take action under the new law. More than two years later, State Department officials wrote a letter to Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., the law’s namesake, informing the US Embassy that the soldiers were disciplined after the incident, but was unable to provide further information. ” It is the Department’s conclusion that there are insufficient grounds on which to conclude that the units involved committed gross violations of human rights”.

Despite numerous allegations made to the State Department, the US government has never disqualified an Israeli military unit under the law despite the fact that the nation has taken action across the globe in South America, the Pacific Rim, and elsewhere.

In 2020, the agency even set up a special council, called the Israel Leahy Vetting Forum, to assess accusations against the country’s military and police units. The forum is composed of State Department officials with expertise in human rights, arms transfers and the Middle East who review public allegations of human rights abuses before making referrals to the Secretary of State. The forum became well known as just another layer of bureaucracy that slowed down the process and protected Israel, despite its ambitious objectives to finally hold Israeli units accountable.

Current and former diplomats told me that US leaders are fundamentally unwilling to follow through on the law and cut off units from American-funded weapons. Instead, the experts said, they have developed several processes that appear to be accountable while also undermining any potential outcomes.

” It’s like walking toward the horizon”, said Charles Blaha, a former director at the State Department who served on the Israel Leahy Vetting Forum. ” You can always walk toward it but you will never ever get there”.

He continued,” I really believed in the Israeli military justice system and that the State Department was acting in good faith.” ” But both of those things were wrong”.

Even the most famous and ostensibly egregious cases fall into a bureaucratic black hole, according to a review of the vetting forum’s emails and meeting minutes from 2021 through 2022.

After the IDF was accused of killing Palestinian American journalist Shireen Abu Akleh in May 2022, videos circulated on the internet of Israeli police units beating pallbearers at her funeral. ” It is indeed very difficult to watch”, a deputy assistant secretary wrote in an email to a member of the forum. Another member stated to coworkers,” I think this would be what is actionable for the funeral procession itself as we wait for more information on circumstances of death and whether this would result in Leahy ineligibility.”

Neither Akleh’s killing, nor the funeral beatings, led to Leahy determinations against Israel.

Legislators have for years pushed the US government to act on Akleh’s case. Tim Rieser, a senior foreign policy aide who helped draft the Leahy Law, recently held a meeting with State Department officials to discuss the case again. The officials in the meeting again punted. He claimed that there is nothing wrong with an Israeli soldier who killed an American journalist. ” They are walking out the door on Jan. 20th and they haven’t implemented the law”.

A 15-year-old West Bank boy claimed he was tortured and raped at the Israeli detention facility Al-Mascobiya, or Russian Compound, in a separate case that the forum considered. For years, the State Department had been told about widespread abuses in that facility and others like it.

Military Court Watch, a local nonprofit organization of attorneys, collected testimony from more than 1, 100 minors who had been detained between 2013 and 2023. The majority of them claimed to have been beaten, and the majority claimed to have been strip searched. Some teens tried to kill themselves in solitary confinement. Children who were so afraid that they urched on themselves during arrests were recalled by IDF soldiers.

At the Russian Compound, a 14-year-old said his interrogator shocked and beat him in the legs with sticks to elicit information about a car fire. A 15-year-old said he was handcuffed with another boy. An Israeli policeman then entered the room and beat the other boy to the hilt, he claimed. A 12-year-old girl said she was put into a small cell with cockroaches.

According to Gerard Horton, one of the group’s co-founders, Military Court Watch frequently shared its information with the State Department. But nothing ever came of it. ” They receive all our reports and we name the facilities”, he told me. It “enters politics” as it moves up the political cliff. Everyone knows what’s going on and obviously no action is taken”.

Even the State Department’s own public human rights reports acknowledge widespread allegations of abuse in Israeli prisons. Citing nonprofits, prisoner testimony and media reports, the agency wrote last year that “detainees held by Israel were subjected to physical and sexual violence, threats, intimidation, severely restricted access to food and water”.

In the summer of 2021, the State Department reached out to the Israeli government and asked about the 15-year-old who said he was raped at the Russian Compound. Defense for Children International — Palestine, a nonprofit that had been initially designated a terrorist organization, was raided by the Israeli government the following day.

US human rights officials were therefore told not to speak to DCIP. ” A large part of the frustration was that we were unable to access Palestinian civil society because most NGOs” — nongovernmental organizations — “were considered terrorist organizations”, said Mike Casey, a former US diplomat in Jerusalem who resigned last year. ” All these groups were essentially the premier human rights organizations, and we were not able to meet with them”.

The State Department’s spokesperson, Mark Miller, stated in his statement that the organization has continued to cooperate with organizations in Israel and the West Bank while not “blanketly interfering” with organizations that document human rights abuses.

After the raid on DCIP, a member of the forum emailed his superior at the State Department and said the US should push to get an explanation for the raid from the Israelis and “re-raise our original request for info on the underlying allegation”.

But almost two years passed without any arrests, and participants in the forum struggled to obtain basic information about the case. Then, in the early months of the Israel war on Hamas, another State Department official reached out to DCIP and tried to reengage, according to a recording of the conversation.

” As you can imagine, it’s been a bit touchy here”, the official said on the call, explaining the months without correspondence. My superiors can dictate to me who I can talk to, according to the Israeli government.

The IDF eventually told the State Department it did not find evidence of a sexual assault but reprimanded the guard for kicking a chair during the teenager’s interrogation. The US has not yet shut down the Russian Compound on Leahy grounds.

In late April, there was surprising news: Blinken was reportedly set to take action against Netzah Yehuda, a notorious ultraorthodox IDF battalion, under the Leahy law.

The Leahy forum had recommended several cases to him. But he persisted for months on the recommendations. One of them was the case of Omar Assad.

On a chilly January 2022 night, Netzah Yehuda soldiers crossed over Assad, an elderly Palestinian American who was returning from a game of cards in the West Bank. They bound, blindfolded and gagged him and led him into a construction site, according to local investigators. He was found dead shortly after.

A dossier of evidence on the case, including testimony from family and witnesses, as well as a medical examiner’s report, was assembled by DAWN, an advocacy group founded by the murdered Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The report found Assad had traumatic injuries to the head and other injuries that caused a stress-induced heart attack. The group presented the document to the Leahy forum at the State Department.

The dossier also included information about other incidents. For years, Netzah Yehuda has been accused of violent crimes in the West Bank, including killing unarmed Palestinians. Additionally, they have been found guilty of abusing and torturing detainees while they are incarcerated.

By late 2023, after the October 7 attacks, the experts on the forum decided that Assad’s case met all the conditions of the Leahy law: a human rights violation had occurred and the soldiers responsible had not been adequately punished. The battalion should no longer receive any American-funded training or weapons until the perpetrators are brought to justice, according to the forum’s advice.

ProPublica published an article in the spring of 2024 about Blinken sitting on the recommendations. But when he signaled his intention to take action shortly after, the Israelis responded with fury. The Israeli Defense Forces “must not be subject to sanctions”! Netanyahu posted on X. The intention to impose sanctions on an IDF unit is both a moral low and the height of absurdity.

The pressure campaign, which also reportedly came from Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. and Lew, the ambassador, appears to have worked. Blinken punched on an official decision for months. Then, in August, the State Department announced that Netzah Yehuda would not be cut off from military aid after all because the US had received new information that the IDF had effectively “remediated” the case. There is no evidence that anyone was charged with a crime, despite two of the soldiers involved being removed from active duty and making them ineligible to serve in the reserve.

Miller, the spokesperson, said the IDF also took steps to avoid similar incidents in the future, like enhanced screening and a two-week educational seminar for Netzah Yehuda recruits.

” In seven and a half years as director of the State Department office that implements the Leahy law worldwide”, Blaha wrote shortly after the announcement,” I have never seen a single case in which mere administrative measures constituted sufficient remediation”.

The Israeli government stated in a statement to ProPublica that the Israeli government had not examined specific cases, but that it had instead stated that the US administration had thoroughly examined each one, and that Israel had taken appropriate remedial measures.

Last summer, CNN documented how commanders in the battalion have been promoted to senior positions in the IDF, where they train ground troops and run operations in Gaza. According to a weapons expert, the weapons Netzah Yehuda soldiers have been reportedly pictured holding were likely made in the US.

Later in the year, Younis Tirawi, a Palestinian journalist who runs a popular account on X, posted videos showing IDF soldiers who recorded themselves rummaging through children’s clothing inside a home and demolishing a mosque’s minaret. Tirawi said the soldiers were in Netzah Yehuda. ( ProPublica was unable to independently verify the soldiers ‘ units. )

Hebrew text added to one of the videos said,” We won’t leave a trace of them”.

Human Rights Watch reported on November 14 and claimed that Israel’s forced displacement of Palestinians is widespread, systematic, and intentional. More than a year after the war started. It accused the Israelis of a crime against humanity, writing,” Israel’s actions appear to also meet the definition of ethnic cleansing”. ( A former Israeli defense minister has also made that allegation. )

Later that day, reporters inquired about the report’s conclusions with State Department spokesman Vedant Patel during a press briefing.

Patel said the US government disagrees and has not seen evidence of forced displacement in Gaza.

He continued,” That certainly would be a red line.”

Mariam Elba contributed research. Sign up for ProPublica’s The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

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