Bangladesh protests: After Sheikh Hasina fled, students dream of change

BBC JulkernayeemBBC

Students are taking to the streets in Dhaka to control visitors and keep things moving as police launch a strike following the uprising that overthrew prime minister Sheikh Hasina.

On the typically noisy and crowded streets of the Bangladeshi capital, the police, who are typically highly visible, are nowhere to be found.

After weeks of turmoil that have resulted in hundreds of fatalities, it seems as though just students and some armed forces are keeping the law and order. An interim federal is promised, but has yet to get business.

Following the deadly crackdown that sparked such a stir, police then worry about their health. It failed to stop anti-government demonstrations that had started last month over legal services work limits.

Noorjahan Mily

Two days after Ms. Hasina escaped to India, things are calmer, but there are still reports of occasional violence and looting.

Some Bangladeshis, particularly the young, expect the country is at a turning level.

” I want freedom of expression. I want a corruption-free state. I want people to have the proper to protest”, Noorjahan Mily, 21, an Open University undergraduate, told the BBC.

” I am uncertain about where the land is heading, because the state has changed. However, I will only be joyful when their needs are satisfied, regardless of whether the prejudice will continue.

Now that electricity has been seized from the hands of the nation’s long-standing king, the nation is now attempting to accept the impact of what has just transpired.

More than 400 people were killed in the new turmoil, most of them residents shot by security troops, but also a number of officers. The battle that led to the nation’s independence in 1971 is the bloodiest instance of this kind.

Reuters Members of the army clear an entrance of the Ganabhaban, the Bangladeshi prime minister's residence, a day after the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, August 6, 2024.Reuters

A security guard at the airport informed me that the government had used excessive force, and that the position was very poor.

” Several children – as young as six, seven and eight – were killed”, he said.

Outside the aircraft, kids wearing orange hi-vis jackets were directing customers.

” There’s no police here, only students”, the driver said. ” There is no state, kids are doing 100 % security”.

He agreed with the kids, saying they had done a good thing.

A group of kids were putting out foam cone to control the flow of vehicles as we passed.

” I’m here to help with traffic and my brothers ‘ protection.” From the very outset, I participated in the limit movements that turned into a huge motion”, Julkernayeem Rahat, a company management student at University of Asia Pacific, told the BBC.

EPA A Bangladeshi student tries to control the traffic as traffic policemen did not turn out on their duty, in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 07 August 2024. In an address to the nation, Chief of Army Staff General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced on 05 August that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has resigned after weeks of unrest and an interim government will be formed to run the country. Bangladeshi President's press secretary announced on 07 August that Muhammad Yunus was chosen to be Bangladesh's interim leader after the resignation of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina. Dhaka following Bangladeshi prime minister's resignation, Bangladesh - 07 Aug 2024EPA

” We are glad we’ve removed the autocratic government. We have gained our liberty and our sovereignty”.

He was convinced that the person named as interim president, Nobel Laureate Muhammed Yunus, will be able to type a government after a few months” with the help of students, lawyers, public people”.

” Bangladesh’s future is in the hands of the student leaders. God willing, things will be good”, said the 22-year-old.

Mahamudul Hassan, 21, is studying on the same course.

” I want democracy so that people of all walks of life can enjoy equal opportunities, equal rights”. He envisions” a leader who can bring those things to pass.”

Mr Yunus was appointed to the post late on Tuesday by Bangladesh’s president, meeting a key demand of student protesters, who said they would not accept an army-led government. He may be sworn in on Thursday after recovering from surgery in France.

He stated to reporters on Wednesday at Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, where he was scheduled to take a flight to Dhaka, that he was looking forward to returning home and seeing what is happening and how we can organize ourselves to escape the trouble we’re in.

He has urged people to abstain from all forms of violence in response to reports of revenge attacks and looting on Sheikh Hasina’s supporters, warning that if they did not, they ran the risk of everything being destroyed.

The army chief assured the people that Mr. Yunus would be able to lead us through a beautiful democratic process in an address on Wednesday, and that we would gain from it.

Although how things turn out will be determined, the students appear to be doing a good job in terms of traffic management.

The BBC reported that things were running much better than they did when we traveled to January to watch the contentious elections that the main opposition boycotted, which resulted in Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League winning a fourth term in power.

When a group of men pulled large metal rods for a construction project, it almost seemed like business as usual.

” The traffic system is now better,” he declared. The students are successfully managing. It’s better than when the police were here”, said Mohammed Shwapan, who has been a Dhaka driver for 24 years. ” Today is busier than yesterday”.

He favors the appointment of an interim leader.

” As Mr Yunus is well known internationally, he can mitigate any potential economic collapse.

How will Bangladesh be able to handle payments, I asks,” I’m concerned about the international debt.” That’s why I think he can do a good job.”

The challenges ahead are enormous, and not just economic. Sheikh Hasina’s 15 years in power are still undergoing healing, many wounds.

Her administration is credited with bringing about many Bangladeshis ‘ standard of living to better health. But she was also accused of serious human rights abuses, including numerous extra-judicial killings and forced disappearances.

Many people have accounts of the experiences their families had.

On the plane to Dhaka, I managed to close my eyes for a few minutes. On the back pocket of the seat in front, I discovered a handwritten note on an airsick bag.

Someone claimed that Sheikh Hasina and his brother were the ones who kidnapped their father and killed him. For the safety of his wife and children, he had spent the last eight years living in self-imposed exile.

Now he is coming back to what he calls” a free country”, to visit his father’s grave, the note said.

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Muhammad Yunus: The Nobel winner tasked with leading Bangladesh

Getty Images Muhammad YunusGetty Images

After former prime minister Sheik Hasina resigned and fled the country after months of unrest, Muhammad Yunus, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, was chosen to lead Bangladesh’s time state.

A well-known critique of Ms Hasina, Mr Yunus called the day of Ms Hasina’s exit Bangladesh’s” next independence day”.

So what do we hear about the 84-year-old Nobel laureate?

Banker to the bad

Mr. Yunus was the only child born in Chittagong, a Muslim merchant family, in the southern area of Bangladesh. He left Bangladesh at age 25 to pursue a Foreign fellowship and traveled there for the next 25 years, the same year that Pakistan won its independence from Pakistan in a harsh, bloody conflict.

After winning the economics department at Chittagong University, Mr. Yunus immediately took up his passion for preventing the mid-’70s hunger that had ravaged Bangladesh.

In a 2005 presentation at the Commonwealth Institute in London, he said,” I became interested in the hunger matter not as a policymaker or scientist.” Because hunger was a constant source of my motivation, I became involved.

I wanted to help those around me right away, but I may not turn my head aside from it. ”

Mr. Yunus was a forerunner of the idea of “microcredit,” where people who are too poor to borrow from a traditional banks are given incredibly little loans, frequently enabling them to work independently.

Grameen Bank, the self-declared “pioneer entrepreneurship organization in the world,” was founded in 1983 by Mr. Yunus, who has since grown to more than nine million customers.

In a 2002 discussion with the BBC, he described entrepreneurship as a “need of the people”.

You must have those financial services coming to them because it is absolutely unfair, whatever name you give… to dispute half the population of the world economic services, ” he said.

Even gypsies had been able to borrow money through Mr. Yunus’s system because it was so successful.

According to the site for the Nobel Prize, Mr. Yunus and Grameen Bank were both honored with the Peace Prize in 2006.

However, some experts have criticized the concept of micro-financial institutions, claiming that they charge exorbitant interest rates and engage in aggressive debt collection practices.

Charges and slander strategies

However, even Ms. Hasina, the head he is currently expected to succeed him, has withstanded a barrage and disagreement in Bangladesh.

After announcing plans to launch his own” Citizen Power” party in 2007, he attracted the former prime minister’s indignation.

In 2011, Ms. Hasina infamously accused Mr. Yunus of having “sucking body from the poor ” and removed him from Grameen Bank. After signing a joint statement criticizing Uganda’s trial of queer people, he faced a state-backed smear campaign in 2013 that accused him of being anti-Islamic and pro-gay.

Additionally, Mr. Yunus has been accused of embezzling money from one of his company’s employees ‘ benefits finance and of receiving money without the government’s approval.

He was given a six-month prison sentence in January of this year for labor law breaches, which he denied, and he and 13 others were charged with larceny in June. He has since been released on bail, but he is currently facing allegations of graft and labor breaches in more than 100 circumstances.

Mr Yunus has denied all charges, claiming that strikes against him are politically motivated.

However, some of Mr. Yunus ‘ supporters claim that his intense dealings with Ms. Hasina have had a negative impact on his appeal.

A red tile with white text, the same format Mr. Mahmud has used for dozens of statements relating to the protests and their aftermath, was posted on Facebook on Tuesday by Asif Mahmud, a key figure in the Students Against Discrimination ( SAD ) movement.

This one had only five words: “ In Dr Yunus, we believe. ”

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Supplementary budget bill sails through Senate

Food vendors register for the digital money handout scheme in Phra Nakhon district, Bangkok, on Aug 1. (Photo: Apichart Jinakul)
Food distributors register for the online cash handout scheme in Phra Nakhon area, Bangkok, on Aug 1. ( Photo: Apichart Jinakul )

The secondary bill passed all three observations on Tuesday in the Upper House, with the goal of increasing the president’s digital budget handout plan by 122 billion baht.

The voting saw 139 lawmakers in behalf, 38 against, and 18 nays.

Numerous senators questioned whether the government’s claim that the modern handout system would work in the debate leading up to Tuesday’s vote on the bill was true.

Norasate Prachyakorn, a senator from Bangkok, expressed concern that the government’s plan to support the handout scheme, which requires almost 500 billion baht in funding, will fail to achieve its goal of a 1.8 % increase in gross domestic product ( GDP ) by 2020.

Related sentiments were expressed by Senators Bunchan Nuansai and Premsak Piayura, who claimed the government’s flyer was nothing more than a plot to win the next general election.

Before becoming a senator, Daeng Kongma, who worked as a meat merchant in Amnat Charoen’s new market before becoming a senator, claimed the 10, 000-baht handout do encourage spending and may induce the local economy. Some people find it more difficult to use digital currency, she said.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin defended the 122-billion-baht auxiliary bill, saying the government should wait until the fiscal year 2025 to receive the necessary funding.

Of the more 122 billion ringgit, about 10 billion may come from taxes and additional revenue the government expects to receive, while the rest will come from borrowing, he said.

The state is in serious need of a funds to finance its efforts to stimulate economic growth, the PM said, given Thailand’s slow economic growth, higher household and corporate debt, and a highly volatile world economy.

He declared that the state’s fiscal and monetary discipline regulations would be strictly enforced.

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Man took advantage of mum’s dementia to withdraw S,000 from his parents’ joint account, gets jail

SINGAPORE: After his father rejected his requests for money, a jobless gambler began accompanying his mother grocery shopping, taking advantage of her dementia to get her to withdraw a total of about S$ 42, 000 ( US$ 31, 660 ).

The cash, which was in his parents ‘ combined account, was meant for the old woman’s medical costs for her situation.

Chow Zhida Gary, 37, was sentenced to 13 months ‘ jail on Tuesday ( Aug 6 ) for a crime the prosecutor called” cruel”.

The Singaporean admitted to three fraud counts.

Another three charges were taken into consideration, including pushing his old father and threatening a police officer, saying in Mandarin:” You want to enjoy large, come, I have a nasty or poor life, you want to play with me come, I have two children”.

According to the jury, Chow’s kids were both 80s taxpayers.

They shared a joint bank account, from which either may withdraw cash.

At the time of the crimes, Chow was unemployed and heavily in debt from playing.

He frequently eluded payment requests from his parents, but they never came back.

Knowing that his family suffered from memory, Chow usually accompanied her to get groceries.

He and his family escorted money on at least eight times between May 2020 and June 2020.

He did n’t tell his father about it because he was aware that she was incapable of explaining why she was assisting him in getting the money.

He consistently instructed his mother to take small steps to prevent sending his father an update about significant payments.

In full, S$ 38, 350 was withdrawn from his parents ‘ bank accounts. Chow deposited the remaining funds into his own account while keeping some of the money.

In late July 2020, Chow’s parents realised that there was only about S$ 49 left, yet though he remembered that being more than S$ 36, 000 outside.

He made a police statement.

Chow afterwards took his mother to a store where he demanded that she pay off another S$ 4, 000.

His father’s banks informed him that the joint account did not have the required amount needed to keep the account open in January 2021.

The old man requested additional police information to help pay for his wife’s health expenses.

On top of stealing from his own relatives, Chow even stole jewellery for about S$ 5, 000 from his 76-year-old uncle, pawning them off.

Chow lied and claimed that his mother had asked him to assist him with money withdrawal requests to offer to other family members or friends when he was being interrogated by the authorities.

When confronted by the numerous debris he had made into his own account, he admitted to using his mother’s mental illness to acquire funds for himself.

He has n’t returned any money to his parents or aunt to date.

The attorney requested 16 months in jail, noting that all of the stolen objects or funds were worth about S$ 5, 000.

He said what sets this circumstance apart from others was the” severe mistreatment of faith” against Chow’s mom, who was a vulnerable target.

He claimed the old woman needed the money for her health care, but Chow allegedly cheated on it, utilizing her dementia to the point where there was “literally nothing to steal.”

The attorney argued that the brutality shown to such a devoted and resilient victim serves as what distinguishes this case and justifies a thick sentence.

He claimed that Chow’s guilty plea, along with no compensation or assistance with the authorities, was nothing that could dampen his feelings.

Chow, who was disadvantaged, said nothing in reduction. He asked simply to postpone his word to Aug 12, citing his father’s day.

He was granted this demand.

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A tale of two bubbles – Asia Times

Up until last week, investors believed that it stocks could only go up and the Chinese yen could only go along, and bubbles next until they feel like basics. By Monday’s business beginning, investors cowered for shelter as the two balloons popped in harmony.

Both the Biden administration in Washington and the Tokyo Kishida management engaged in the same untenable strategy, ballooning the government’s balance plate to raise asset prices.

The central banks held half of the remarkable fly of Chinese government securities by July 31 when the Bank of Japan announced that it would “taper” its payments of government securities and raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25 % from zero.

Japan’s debt-buying spree pushed up prices objectives, weakened the yen and buoyed Japan’s stock market during the past three years.

A rise in inflation and foreign earnings led to a shift in true wages, causing corporations to lose their federal income from households.

Graphic: Asia Times

The japanese exchange price, expected inflation ( as shown by the supply distinction between inflation-indexed and regular promotion government bonds ), and stock prices all moved in accordance with the above table. The August 5 period saw a decline in Japan’s big stock indexes, which recovered at the August 6 entry.

However, in the United States, the Biden administration tried to shovel wealth into customers ‘ pockets by increasing transport payments, as I explained in an August 2 study.

Washington’s choice of weapon was fiscal rather than monetary: Transfer payments ( federal checks to individuals ) rose nearly 20 % above the long-term trend.

According to Lawrence Summers, who was president Barack Obama’s Treasury Secretary, the actual inflation rate, which included higher interest rates on consumer loans, reached 18 % in 2023 and remained at 8 % in 2024, more than the official figure.

In May, American consumers began to reduce their financial purchases, and by July, employment growth had stopped.

In Japan’s event, a general rebellion by voters, who gave Prime Minister Kishida an approval rating of only 15.5 %, forced the hands of the Bank of Japan.

The prices that had been causing their living conditions long ago made Japanese voters uneasy. Consumers in the United States used credit cards to close the gap between average weekly earnings of 8 % and inflation, which had increased by only 3.3 % in July from the same month in 2023.

By June, US customers had stopped putting money on the table and cutting costs, and the inflationary balloon that was stifling US progress was beginning to devalue. Friday’s employment report, which showed the highest homeless level in three years, was a wake-up visit.

Graphic: Asia Times

Due to economic weakness, the massive estimates of Big Tech companies, whose massive opportunities in artificial intelligence had no apparent connection to future income, were questioned.

Graphic: Asia Times

We wrote in Asia Times ‘ &nbsp, Global Risk-Reward Monitor on July 31:” Since 2017, foreign holdings of US Treasuries have risen to$ 8 trillion from$ 6 trillion, while foreign holdings of US equities jumped to$ 15 trillion from$ 6 trillion. The dollar’s primary draw is America’s command in artificial knowledge and the microprocessor development that supports it. The money will also be vulnerable if technical shares lose their luster.

Graphic: Asia Times

The trailing P/E percentage of the S&amp, P Information Technology field was almost the same as the general S&amp, P 500 P/E throughout the ages 2008-2022. It’s then half again as great. Is that determined?

According to a widely-publicized estimate released by Sequoia’s David Cahn on June 20, revenue from large language models ( LLMs) must reach$ 600 billion annually to cover the significant investment in software, chips, and data centers currently devoted to AI.

OpenAI, meanwhile, is earning$ 3.4 billion a year, and according to The Information, losing$ 5 billion a year. A spiritual leap of faith is necessary to fit the prohibitive CapEx and LLM provider revenues.

The US property market downturn was largely caused by technology. Investors are concerned that the AI balloon will collapse, leading to a decade of missing returns for digital stock investors, similar to the dot-com balloon of the 1990s.

Observe David P. Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

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Nikkei’s Black Monday 2.0 triggers contagion talk – Asia Times

Buyers are looking for relationships, past occasions that offer some perspective on what may lie ahead for forex markets, as the Japanese yen surges.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is leading a worldwide property sell-off, leading to a frenetic research. The Bank of Japan’s July 31 price climb was followed by a softer-than-expected US work record. On Monday, the Nikkei plunged 4, 451 factors, more than Black Monday in 1987.

Probably, no great consequence exists owing to risks surrounding Japan thanks to the “yen-carry trade”. Although the US dollar is by far the most popular reserve currency, trade became as crowded as it ever was as a result of expensively borrowing in the yen and putting those funds into higher-yielding assets abroad.

This explains why, when the renminbi rises, things turn around for everything, from Chinese corporate debt to Indian property to American bonds to Brazilian options to Argentine bonds to Wall Street stocks to commodities. When the world’s largest creditor nation zags, issues tend to zigzag quickly.

” The hype is all about the disease consequence of this extreme keep assault, underscored by fears of a hard getting in the US and a severe meltdown in Tokyo’s markets, which now appear to be self-perpetuating”, says Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management.

According to Kinsale Buying analysts,” the yen have industry has been used to finance bull markets in almost every advantage over the years,” and if it is” starting to change, it has negative implications for stocks and other risk assets.”

Seldom is that truer than presently as Black Monday 2.0 knocks Asia, sending the Chinese yuan higher, too. &nbsp,

As the yen’s rebound against the dollar increased by about 13 % from the previous low on July, and stocks began to decline, the yen’s market tensions boiled over on Monday. The most danced decline in Japanese government bonds in more than 20 years is expected.

” Some investors who were borrowing japanese at low interest rates, converted them to US dollars and used this to get US companies”, notes Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior industry analyst at Capital.com. However, with higher interest rates in Japan, they are now facing forex losses as well.

The Japanese background music of the global financial system has been playing for 25 years, transforming into the monetary liquidity version of the world’s financial system. That is now a sizable risk that traders are n’t all that knowledgeable about managing in real-time.

Part of the problem is complacency. Over the last two decades, investors have survived myriad moments of high yen-carry trade tension. Generally, though, the related hijinks in asset markets never quite matched fears about giant reckonings.

In this way, perhaps the carry trade is best understood as a shark from” Jaws.” The recurring theme of Steven Spielberg’s 1975 film is that the shark will always reappear when it’s least expected to — and with exponentially growing ferociousness.

Not because the threat is gone, just because the yen’s rally in support of the BOJ’s rate increase has n’t sunk a lot of large hedge funds. Contrary to what BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda predicted in the coming months, more rate increases will be made.

At the same time, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has been interviewing aggressively below the surface. These yen purchases, coupled with prospects for more BOJ tightening, could send the yen back to levels not seen in decades.

No one can say how unstable that might be. Since 1999, the BOJ has held rates at or near zero. Since 2001, it has been playing with quantitative easing. The result of all this free money is that almost every sector of Japan’s economy is now dependent, decade after decade.

Take Japanese government bonds ( JGBs ), which are still the biggest financial asset held by, well, everyone. If JGB yields rise toward 2 % or 3 %, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, endowments, the postal system and the growing ranks of retirees would sustain painful losses.

The BOJ is n’t moving forward with what Ueda did last week due to this mutually assured destruction dynamic. It’s impossible to predict where significant risks might arise now that the BOJ has entered these shark-infested financial waters.

Granted, there are valid reasons why the BOJ feels the need to tap the brakes. It is aware that Japan’s animal spirits were more killed by weak yen policies after more than 20 years.

Tokyo’s economic game was made more urgent by ultralow rates. Corporate executives were under increased pressure to innovate, reorganize, and swing for the fences as a result of the yen’s decline. Additionally, rising energy and food prices cause inflation in Japan, which hurts domestic purchasing power.

Ueda has also started the long-diverse normalization process. It is unpredictable about how foreign exchange markets are affected. and risking asset markets everywhere. Perhaps grave risk, if Team Ueda overplays its hand in tightening.

” The pivot towards a more hawkish policy stance by BOJ is adding to the general pressure on risk assets globally”, says Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée. ” This shift comes as Japan moves away from its decades-long ultra-loose monetary policy, contributing to increased market volatility and uncertainty”.

More volatility is anticipated, according to Casanova, and the yen grew following the tightening move. But, he adds,” the domestic economy remains sluggish, while US demand is showing signs of softening. The weakening yen tailwind is likely to stop as anticipation for a Federal Reserve cut in September builds. Investors will need to see upside surprises in revenues and earnings to drive further increases as valuations are now at the upper end of their range, which is roughly 17.5 times earnings.

Udith Sikand, analyst at Gavekal Research, says “yen-funded carry trades causing a’ snowball effect’ for other asset classes” .He adds that such” self-reinforcing declines are usually only broken when macro fundamentals decisively shift, or policymakers step in to correct a problem”.

Because of its role as a source of funding for carry trades, Japan’s debt market has long been an anchor for global investors, Sikand explains. This is because the Bank of Japan has consistently tried to keep short rates at zero while putting forth comprehensive efforts to reduce longer-term government bond yields. Carry trades work so long as the funding currency depreciates, or at least remains stable. The death knell of these trades is an appreciation of the funding currency.

It follows that the yen’s surge “has triggered margin calls for yen-funded speculators”, Sikand says. It’s difficult to determine the overall size of these long-short positions, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the decline in high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso, along with the sell-off in US tech stocks, is a result.

Concerns about US employment growth, with a dash of Warren Buffett, ratchet up the selloff.

According to Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, the odds of a US recession have increased from 15 % to 25 %. Generally, he notes,” we continue to see recession risk as limited” because of a dearth of serious imbalances. Even so, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

Some think US worries are overdone. George Lagarias, chief economist at Mazars, argues that falling stocks are” not due to an impending recession. Stocks are naturally correcting, and bonds are rising due to worse-than-expected macroeconomic data”.

A further correction, according to Lagarias, would” then thin out the market and allow investors to re-deploy cash at more reasonable valuations” if the Fed responded quickly enough to prevent a risk assert correction from actually causing a recession.

Yet “one very important difference in 2024 is]the ] extreme degree to which risk assets have front-run Fed cuts”, says Bank of America Corp economist Michael Hartnett.

Meanwhile, news that Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sell nearly half of its massive stake in Apple Inc. The Omaha-based conglomerate offloaded a little more than 49 % of its stake, a transaction that spooked US markets.

In Japan’s case, the trouble is that there’s no blueprint for what Ueda is trying to pull off. The BOJ tried it back in 2006 and 2007. The central bank was able to raise rates twice to 0.5 % at the time. Japan slid toward recession soon afterward, angering the political establishment.

As the stock market declines and growth contracts, Ueda would almost certainly face his own torrent of negative press. Can he survive the storm, or not? It’s anyone’s guess. However, all other world markets can do is to apprehensively anticipate that the BOJ will correct the rate hikes ‘ magnitude, timing, and sequence.

Tokyo will continue to” stay on its toes and closely watch market developments,” according to Yoshimasa Hayashi, a spokesman for the Japanese government.

The government will continue its efforts to completely deflationate and transition to a growth-driven economy, he added,” we’re aware there are various evacuations about the stocks plunge this time around, and about the status of the Japanese economy.”

Is it still unclear whether the investors ‘ long-feared “doom effect” results from a surge in the yen? That may not come to pass, meaning fears about the yen-carry trade blowing up are overdone. It’s just as likely, though, the shark will reappear in short order and spook traders around the globe.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Reshuffle talk if PM keeps job

Akanat is supported by UTN for supervisory positions.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin (photo: Government House)
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin ( photo: Government House )

If Srettha Thavisin, the prime minister, survives a legitimate action pending a constitutional court ruling the following year, he will be prepared to take a cabinet reshuffle.

He made the remark after Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, the leader of the coalition United Thai Nation ( UTN) Party, proposed the shake-up to allow its secretary-general Akanat Promphan to fill a ministerial post which remains vacant under the party’s quota.

This month, there are a number of issues with the justice program… If a coalition party proposes]a cabinet reshuffle], I am ready to consider it, but I wo n’t do it any time soon because there is a case pending a Constitutional Court ruling. We have to honor the jury earliest”, Mr Srettha said.

In the most recent cabinet reshuffle, the Constitutional Court will decide whether Mr. Srettha will continue as prime minister in spite of his determination to assign ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as the PM’s Office Minister.

40 past senators, who had been found guilty of contempt of court for attempting to reward Supreme Court officers in 2008 while representing former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a contentious area case, filed a complaint in May to ignore the prime minister.

According to a resource in the state, Mr. Pirapan, who likewise serves as the Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister, wrote to Mr. Srettha on Saturday to request that he think about reshuffling the case.

A government post under the group’s allotment remains vacant after Krisada Chinavicharana, a previous UTN part, resigned as deputy finance minister in May.

According to the cause, Mr. Pirapan stated in the letter that the group would select Mr. Akanat for any case position created as a result of the changes.

Mr. Pirapan claimed that because the location is still open and Mr. Akanat was well qualified to take over the position, Mr. Akanat, a UTN list MP, appeared to be extremely likely to be the party choice for it.

According to Mr. Pirapan, Mr. Akanat, a UTN record MP, performed well in the past election and has also fulfilled his role as an MP in parliament effectively.

A spokeswoman for UTN’s Ratchaburi, Akkaradet Wongpitakroj, claimed that Mr. Akanat is qualified to serve in the case and that a position under the party’s quota is still open.

” Mr. Akanat’s recognition has been recognized by party members and professionals. He made significant contributions to the preceding election campaign, and he excelled in congress.

After Mr. Pichai signed a document dividing up tasks within the department, Mr. Krisada resigned to Pichai Chunhavajira, the newly appointed finance minister and a deputy prime minister, according to another cause.

Because he has been given the authority to handle just one state agency, the Public Debt Management Office, was this perceived as reducing Mr. Krisada’s supervisory role.

Mr. Krisada stated in his resignation letter that his primary motivations for leaving as deputy finance minister were that he and Mr. Pichai had a unique labor theory and that Mr. Pichai had not treated him with admiration when they collaborated.

However, Wisut Chainarun, a Pheu Thai MP and general government whip, on Monday dismissed speculation that the criticism Democrat Party may be invited to join the coalition government.

There is no need to resign from the partnership because the state has more than enough support among its members.

” With another coalition party joining, issues regarding the limit of cabinet posts did arise”, he said.

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China needs to pick a side, and it just might pick the West – Asia Times

For the Kremlin, its “partner of no parameters”, China, is n’t doing enough to support Russia’s war against Ukraine. But, Russia has signed a peace agreement with North Korea, hoping to force China into backing Moscow’s battle work more.

However, the West sees China as far to good to Russia. The West’s best observation of the mood came on a conference in Washington, DC on July 10, 2024.

China is a “decisive innovator” of Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to NATO leaders who even called on China to” stop all materials and social support of Russia’s war work.”

To the West, China’s help, though short of real weapons source, is more than enough to power Russia’s war device. This in turn threatens Europe’s stability.

But NATO’s communication and Russia’s inherent script to China seemed to indicate one thing: Beijing’s fence-sitting days are numbered, and it needs to choose a part. However for Russia, China may be forced to find the West.

China has begun to show evidence of its pivot toward the West. In late 2023, there was riddled rumors that China’s tiger diplomacy was about to break up due to the West’s deteriorating relationships.

But in mid-2024, Beijing sent more panda to Spain and Vienna, as well as the US software centre of California. In an effort to strengthen relationships with the West, President Xi Jinping even made position visits to the US, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand.

Beijing’s Russian headaches

Russia and Ukraine are aware of the disastrous effects the conflict has had. Estimates indicate that Putin’s fight in Ukraine may cost Russia US$ 1.3 trillion and at least 315, 000 in troop deaths. But, win or lose, the post-war harm to Russia may be tremendous.

This is terrible news for China. The West will have the freedom to use its tools to deal with the” Chinese risk” because it will have a diminished ally as well.

This issue is n’t false. After all, most Americans regard China as their greatest foe, and they occasionally refer to it as a part of an” axis of evil” along with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

The Chinese government must therefore prevent Russia losing the conflict in Ukraine from becoming the “target of all arrows” ( ), as the famous Chinese saying goes. The revitalization of tiger politics and the organization’s state visits serve as tools for stabilizing relations with the west and as insurance.

However, NATO’s condemnation of China in July 2024, which echoes a statement made by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in late April 2024, suggests that these delicate power efforts are inadequate to satisfy the West.

China needs to hit Ukraine’s government to negotiate peace with Russia. With this, China can focused its efforts on becoming the world’s leader in AI and recovering its ailing economy, while Russia retains its regional strength.

Financial efficiency

For decades, China has been reeling from a real estate issue, a volatile stock market, a large 288 % debt-to-GDP percentage, as well as great youth unemployment.

And lately, as a result of rising demand, Chinese government bond prices recently soared, suggesting that investors are looking for safer investment options.

The Taiwanese government is also dealing with other issues, but they also have one. It has historically used financial performance to validate its rule. Beijing needs to revive its struggling business to keep its hold on power, given the current economic climate.

But, there is one major flaw with Beijing’s economic growth approach: it centers around exports, which rely heavily on American need. China exported more goods to various regions of the world, but nearly 30 % of those exported to the US and the EU in 2023.

As it stands, holes are surfacing in Beijing’s trade programs. In May 2024, the US raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles ( EV ) to 100 %. The European Union increased the tariff on all Chinese electric vehicles imported into Europe from 17.4 % to 37.6 %, topping the already 10 % duty.

However, depending on how it deals with Russia, stuff may get worse for the Chinese market. A moment after NATO’s statement, US President Joe Biden announced that China’s ongoing support of Russia will endure severe economic consequences for the Eastern power.

He made a reference to what China may face if its aid for Russia is continued, saying that” some of our German friends are going to be curtailing their investment in China.”

China hopes that a Russia-friendly peace arrangement will come after the war’s conclusion, for its own sake. Without this, China’s commitment to self-reliance will place its unmatched relationship with the Kremlin to the test.

After all, as the phrase commonly attributed to the 19th-century British prime minister Lord Palmerston goes,” There are no permanent foes, and no permanent companions, merely permanent interests”.

Chee Meng Tan is Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Kim Jong Un wants Trump back, elite defector tells BBC

Donald Trump returning to the White House would be “a once-in-a-thousand year opportunity” for North Korea, according to a man in a unique position to know.

Ri Il Kyu is the highest-profile defector to escape North Korea since 2016, and has been face-to-face with Kim Jong Un on seven separate occasions.

The former diplomat, who was working in Cuba when he fled with his family to South Korea last November, admits to “shivering with nerves” the first time he met Kim Jong Un.

But during each meeting, he found the leader to be “smiling and in a good mood”.

“He praised people often and laughed. He seems like an ordinary person,” Mr Ri says. But he is in no doubt Mr Kim would do anything to guarantee his survival, including kill all 25 million of his people: “He could have been a wonderful person and father, but turning him into a god has made him a monstrous being.”

In an hours-long interview with the BBC, Mr Ri provides a rare understanding of what the world’s most secretive and repressive states is hoping to achieve.

He said that North Korea still views Mr Trump as someone it can negotiate with over its nuclear weapons programme, despite talks between him and Kim Jong Un breaking down in 2019.

Mr Trump has previously hailed the relationship with Kim as a key achievement of his presidency. He famously said the two “fell in love” exchanging letters. Just last month, he told a rally Mr Kim would like to see him back in office: “I think he misses me, if you want to know the truth.”

North Korea is hoping it can use this close personal relationship to its advantage, said Mr Ri, contradicting an official statement from Pyongyang last month that it “did not care” who became president.

The nuclear state will never get rid of its weapons, Mr Ri said, and would likely seek a deal to freeze its nuclear programme in return for the US lifting sanctions

But he said Pyongyang would not negotiate in good faith. Agreeing to freeze its nuclear programme “would be a ploy, 100% deception”, he said, adding that this was therefore a “dangerous approach” that would “only lead to the strengthening of North Korea”.

A ‘life or death gamble’

Eight months after his defection, Ri Il Kyu is now living with his family in the South Korean capital Seoul. Accompanied by a police bodyguard and two intelligence agents, he explains his decision to abandon his government.

After years of being ground down by the corruption, bribery, and lack of freedom he faced, Mr Ri says he was finally tipped over the edge when his request to travel to Mexico to get an operation on a slipped disc in his neck was denied. “I lived the life of the top 1% in North Korea, but that is still worse than a middle class family in the South.”

As a diplomat in Cuba, Mr Ri made just $500 (£294) a month, and so would sell Cuban cigars illegally in China to make enough to support his family.

When he first told his wife about his desire to defect she was so disturbed she ended up in hospital with heart problems. After that he kept his plans secret, only sharing them with her and his child six hours before their plane was due to depart.

He describes it as a “life or death gamble”. Regular North Koreans who are caught defecting would typically be tortured for a few months, then released, he says. “But for elites like us there are only two outcomes – life in a political prison camp, or being executed by a firing squad.”

“The fear and terror were overwhelming. I could accept my own death, but I could not bear the thought of my family being dragged to a gulag,” he says. Although Mr Ri had never believed in God, as he waited nervously at the airport gate in the middle of the night, he began to pray.

The last known high-profile defection to the South was that of Tae Yong-ho in 2016. A former deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, he was recently named the new leader of South Korea’s presidential advisory council on unification.

Getty Images ussian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un toast during a reception at the Mongnangwan Reception House in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024.Getty Images

Turning to North Korea’s recent closening ties with Russia, Mr Ri says the Ukraine war had been a stroke of luck for Pyongyang. The US and South Korea estimate the North has sold Moscow millions of rounds of ammunition to support its invasion, in return for food, fuel and possibly even military technology.

Mr Ri says the main benefit of this deal for Pyongyang was the ability to continue developing its nuclear weapons.

With the deal, Russia had created a “loophole” in the stringent international sanctions on North Korea, he says, which had allowed it, “to freely develop its nuclear weapons and missiles and strengthen its defence, while bypassing the need to appeal to the US for sanctions relief”.

But Mr Ri says that Kim Jong Un understands that this relationship is temporary, and that after the war Russia is likely to sever relations. For this reason, Mr Kim has not given up on the US, Mr Ri says.

“North Korea understands that the only path to its survival, the only way to eliminate the threat of invasion and develop its economy, is to normalise relations with the United States.”

While Russia might have given North Korea a temporary respite from its economic pain, Mr Ri says the complete closure of North Korea’s borders during the pandemic had “severely devastated the country’s economy and people’s lives”.

When the borders reopened in 2023 and diplomats were preparing to return, Mr Ri says families back home had asked them to “bring anything and everything you have, even your used toothbrushes, because there is nothing left in North Korea”.

The North Korean leader demands total loyalty from his citizens and the mere whiff of dissent can result in imprisonment. But Mr Ri says years of hardship had eroded people’s loyalty, as no-one now expected to receive anything from their “Supreme Leader” Kim Jong Un.

“There is no genuine loyalty to the regime or to Kim Jong Un anymore, it is a forced loyalty, where one must be loyal or face death,” he says.

The “most evil act”

Recent change has largely been driven by an influx of South Korean films, dramas and music, which have been smuggled into the North, and are illegal to watch and listen to.

“People don’t watch South Korean content because they have capitalist beliefs, they are simply trying to pass the time in their monotonous and bleak lives,” Mr Ri says, but then they begin to ask, “why do those in the South live the life of a first-world country while we are impoverished”?

But Mr Ri says that although South Korean content was changing North Korea, it would not bring about its collapse, because of the systems of control in place. “Kim Jong Un is very aware that loyalty is waning, that people are evolving, and that’s why he is intensifying his reign of terror,” he says.

The government has introduced laws to harshly punish those who consume and distribute South Korean content. The BBC spoke to one defector last year who said he had witnessed someone be executed after sharing South Korean music and TV shows.

North Korea’s decision, at the end of last year, to abandon a decades-old policy of eventually reunifying with the South, was a further attempt to isolate people from the South, Mr Ri says.

This, he described as Kim Jong Un’s “most evil act”, because all North Koreans dream of reunification. He says that while North Korea’s past leaders had “stolen people’s freedom, money and human rights, Kim Jong Un has robbed what was left of them: hope”.

Outside North Korea, much attention is paid to Kim Jong Un’s health, with some believing that his premature death could trigger the collapse of the regime. Earlier this week, South Korea’s intelligence agency estimated that Mr Kim weighed 140kg, putting him at risk of cardiovascular disease.

But Mr Ri believes the system of surveillance and control is now too well established for Kim’s death to threaten the dictatorship. “Another evil leader will merely take his place,” he says.

BBC / Hosu Lee  North Korean diplomat Ri Il Kyu BBC / Hosu Lee

It has been widely speculated that Mr Kim is grooming his young daughter, thought to be called Ju Ae, to be his successor, but Mr Ri dismisses the notion.

Ju Ae, he says, lacked the legitimacy and popularity to become the leader of North Korea, especially as the sacred Paektu bloodline, which the Kims use to justify their rule, is only believed to run through the men of the family.

At first people were fascinated by Ju Ae, Mr Ri says but not anymore. They questioned why she was attending missile tests rather than going to school, and wearing luxury, designer clothes instead of her school uniform, like other children.

Rather than waiting for Mr Kim to become ill or die, Mr Ri says the international community had to come together, including North Korea’s allies China and Russia, to “persistently persuade it to change”.

“This is the only thing that will bring about the end of the North Korean dictatorship,” he adds.

Mr Ri is hoping that his defection inspires his peers, not to defect themselves, but to push for small changes from the inside. He does not have lofty ambitions, that North Koreans will be able to vote or travel, merely that they can choose what jobs to work, have enough food to eat, and be able to share their opinions freely among friends.

Though for now, his priority is helping his family settle into their new life in South Korea, and for his child to assimilate into society.

At the end of our interview, he posed a scenario. “Imagine I offer you a venture, and tell you, if we succeed we win big, but if we fail it means death.

“You wouldn’t agree, would you? Well that is the choice I forced upon my family, and they silently agreed and followed me,” he says.

“This is now a debt I must repay for the rest of my life.”

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