Maldives leader Muizzu to seek India bailout despite strained ties

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Mohammed Muizzu, the president of Maldivia, has stated to the BBC that he is convinced that India will lend its assistance to the island country as it struggles with its economy.

Muizzu, who begins a five-day visit to India on Sunday, is expected to seek a bailout worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

The Maldives is staring at a debt default as its foreign exchange reserves have dropped to$ 440m ( £334m ), just enough for one-and-a-half months of imports.

India, one of our biggest development partners, is fully aware of our financial situation, and it will always be available to ease our problem, look for better alternatives and solutions to the issues we face, Muizzu told the BBC in an internet interview prior to his visit.

Experts point out that Muizzu’s reconciliatory tone towards Delhi is a far cry from the rhetoric he adopted during his election campaign a year ago. That campaign had centred on an “India out” policy, demanding that Delhi must withdraw its troops from the island nation.

Muizzu stated in a statement to the BBC that he was assured that any differences could be resolved through open discussion and mutual understanding. He did not directly address his anti-India strategy.

An American relief package may bolster the government’s foreign currency reserves.

Last month, global firm Moody’s downgraded the Maldives ‘ credit score, saying that “default dangers have risen substantially”.

However, Muizzu told the BBC that Male is not in danger of defaulting on its sovereign debt, and that the nation would not sign up for an International Monetary Fund ( IMF) program to address the crisis.

” We have our own home-grown agenda”, he said.

However, Moody has said that” (foreign ) reserves remain significantly below the government’s external debt service of around$ 600m in 2025 and over$ 1bn in 2026″.

Where Muizzu may find the funds to solve the reserves problems is unclear, and that is where his Delhi visit is viewed as important. Male has already received$ 1.4 billion in financial support from India for various infrastructure and development projects.

Relations between Male and Delhi have strained since Muizzu took office in November 2023.

Soon after taking over, he chose to travel to Turkey and China – his visit to the latter in January was seen especially as a high-profile snub to India as previous Maldivian leaders first visited Delhi after being elected. Around the same time, a controversy erupted in India after three Maldivian officials made derogatory comments about Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Muizzu also gave an ultimatum to India to withdraw about 80 troops based in the country. Delhi said they were stationed there to maintain and operate two rescue and reconnaissance helicopters and a Dornier aircraft it had donated years ago.

In the end, both nations came to an agreement to replace soldiers with American human professional staff to run the aircraft.

Additionally, Muizzu’s administration announced that it would not maintain a geological survey agreement signed by the earlier government with India to chart the seabed in Maldivian territorial waters.

However, the Maldivian leader defended his choice.

Our evolving home objectives and strategic goals are the basis for the decisions made. The will of the people, that elected me 10 times ago”, Muizzu said.

” I think that both India and the Islands have better understanding of one another’s needs and problems,” he added.

Some of Muizzu’s judgments were seen as a way to lower Delhi’s control and forge closer relations with India’s foe China.

In February, Muizzu’s administration allowed the port call of a Chinese research ship, Xiang Yang Hong 3, in the Maldives, much to Delhi’s displeasure. Some saw it as a mission to collect data which could – at a later date – be used by the Chinese military for submarine operations.

But Muizzu rejects the pro-China label.

The moment I took office, I made it clear that our foreign policy is a” Island First” policy. He asserts that the rules of mutual respect and trust, non-interference, and the pursuit of peace and prosperity guide our interactions with other countries.

” We believe that through empty communication and collaboration, we can address any concerns, contributing to a peaceful and prosperous Indian Ocean place”, he says.

Despite Muizzu’s attempts to move Male closer to Beijing, analysts say financial assistance from China has n’t been forthcoming,

As a result, the government’s incredible turnaround towards India today is based on harsh realities.

Muizzu’s Delhi attend “is a realisation of how dependant the Island is on India, a dominance that no other country will get easy to fill”, says Azim Zahir, a Malay analyst.

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Poll: One-third of Thai handout recipients not sure they’ll back govt

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PUBLISHED: 6 Oct 2024 at 11: 55

Eligible cash recipients under the state-sponsored cash handout scheme flock to withdraw their money from the Government Savings Bank in Mae Chan district, Chiang Rai on Oct 1. (Photo supplied)
On October 1, residents of the Mae Chan area, Chiang Rai, gather to withdraw their money from the government savings institution. ( Photo supplied )

According to a poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration, Nida Poll, really over one-third of Thais are also unsure whether to support the government after receiving 10,000 baht through its flagship trigger program.

The poll was conducted global on Oct 1-3, with 1, 312 responders aged 18 and over of several levels of education and employment.

After receiving the 10, 000-baht flyer from their families under the electronic budget scheme, the responses to the question of whether they would give social support to&nbsp, the Pheu Thai-led government, different as follows:

34.35 percent of respondents said they had never yet made a decision and were uncertain.

30.3 % claimed that the government’s handout program could serve as a small part of their support.

20.38 % said they currently supported the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, with or without its flyer plan.

13. 13 % of respondents said they would never support the current government despite their actions.

1.83 % did not know or were not interested

When questioned what the respondents intended to use the 10,000-baht money handout for, the responses were as follows:

86.79 % daily expenses ( including utility bills and petrol )

16.49 % saving for future expenses

14.35 % repaying debt

13.59 % health-related expenses ( e. g., buying medicines, seeing a doctor )

8.24 % buying merchandise for reselling

7.48 % education expenses

1.37 % purchasing electrical appliances

1.07 % buying underground/ state lottery tickets

0.99 % buying mobile phones / IT devices

0.69 % entertainment purposes ( e. g., partying, buying alcohol or cigarettes ) &nbsp,

0.31 % travel

0.15 % buying gold / jewellery

0.99 % did n’t answer

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Poll: One-third of Thai handout recipients have not decided to back govt

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PUBLISHED: 6 Oct 2024 at 11: 55

Eligible cash recipients under the state-sponsored cash handout scheme flock to withdraw their money from the Government Savings Bank in Mae Chan district, Chiang Rai on Oct 1. (Photo supplied)
On October 1, residents of the Mae Chan city, Chiang Rai, gather to remove their money from the Government Savings Bank. ( Photo supplied )

According to a poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration, Nida Poll, really over one-third of Thais are also unsure whether to support the government once they have received 10,000 baht under its flagship signal system.

The poll was conducted global on Oct 1-3, with 1, 312 responders aged 18 and over of several levels of education and employment.

After receiving the 10, 000-baht flyer from their families under the electronic budget scheme, the responses to the question of whether they would give social support to&nbsp, the Pheu Thai-led government, various as follows:

34.35 percent of respondents said they had never yet made a decision and were uncertain.

30.3 % claimed that the government’s handout program could serve as a small part of their support.

20.38 % said they currently supported the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration, with or without its flyer plan.

13. 13 % of respondents said they would never support the current government despite their actions.

1.83 % did not know or were not interested

The responses were as follows when asked what the respondents intended to use the 10,000-baht money flyer for:

86.79 % daily expenses ( including utility bills and petrol )

16.49 % saving for future expenses

14.35 % repaying debt

13.59 % health-related expenses ( e. g., buying medicines, seeing a doctor )

8.24 % buying merchandise for reselling

7.48 % education expenses

1.37 % purchasing electrical appliances

1.07 % getting underground/ state lottery tickets

0.99 % buying mobile phones / IT devices

0.69 % entertainment purposes ( e. g., partying, buying alcohol or cigarettes ) &nbsp,

0.31 % travel

0.15 % buying gold / jewellery

0.99 % did n’t answer

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Sri Lanka approves controversial foreign debt deal

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The government and its diplomatic lenders reached a deal to restructure their official credit, which was worth US$ 6 billion, in June. Private collectors who own more than half of the world’s royal ties and other foreign commercial mortgages to the South Asian nation agreed to a 27 % loanContinue Reading

US needs a solution to China’s problem – Asia Times

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Whoever wins will have the breeze at their backs, according to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who both have pledged to lead a developing revival.

Thanks in large part to grants provided by the Chips and Science Act, the Prices Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, many new companies are already under development in the United States. With continued emphasis from Washington, the country could observe ground broken on still more innovative companies.

Do n’t, however, undervalue the threat China poses to the revival of American industry. China has a lot of professional overcapacity, and the state there is investing in even more. That will increase the cost of a wide range of manufactured products, making it harder for new companies to succeed outside of China.

China denies it has overcapacity. The Chinese claim that foreigners who employ that phrase are attempting to prevent China’s rise by suggesting there should be limitations on how much it can generate and export.

But China now dominates world developing. It produces 35 % of the country’s factory output. That’s almost six times the US’s 12 % share of the top two producers, the US, and more than the combined stock of the next nine largest manufacturing nations.

Economist Richard Baldwin calls China” the world’s ultimate producing power”.

According to international economists, China’s obsession with production has caused its economy to be extremely imbalanced and heavily dependent on investment at the expense of consumption. They say this underlies the government’s slowing growth, rising poverty and real-estate debt problems.

China’s officials reject that research. They are planning to export items that the domestic market ca n’t handle while doubling down on their manufacturing investments. They are attempting to rule the high-tech sectors of the future by pushing for upward growth.

” China’s increased investments will not be a little storm, but rather a US$ 450 billion wave over the next three years”, says Harry Moser, chairman of the Reshoring Initiative, a non-profit dedicated to bringing production jobs up to the US.

The Chinese president’s support for its makers was in a group of its own, even before the most recent double-down, according to the Wall Street Journal. In 2019, China spent 1.7 % of its GDP on business policy. The US spent 0.4 %.

And China’s 1.7 % does n’t take into account a variety of indirect subsidies – cheap loans from state-owned banks, tax breaks of various kinds, cheap steel from state-owned steel companies and cheap energy from state-owned utilities. One estimate cited by the Journal puts China’s actual industrial-policy spending close to 5 % of national income.

And China’s spending is n’t just deep, it’s broad. ” Ninety-nine percent of publicly listed companies report some kind of subsidy”, the Journal information.

As much about authority as economy are involved in the doubling over. China wants to reduce its reliance on different nations. They should rely on China more, it wants.

Other countries, especially the US, do n’t want to be more reliant on China. They fear more poverty and suburbanization, but that’s not their just stress.

Washington has been reminded that a solid business foundation is essential to national security by the Russian war of Ukraine and Israel’s conflict with Hamas. In a turmoil, Cocavid taught the US that it’s foolish to concentrate on other nations for essential supplies.

Government politicians in the US, Europe, and other countries are having a hard time coming up with solutions to the China issue. With varying degrees of success, the last two US governments have tried tariffs and incentives in various ways.

Trump is promising yet higher taxes and is threatening businesses that are moving their manufacturing abroad, including John Deere. Harris claims that she will grant tax credits to motivate opportunities in brand-new factories. It’s unclear how significant these efforts may be.

Anyhow, these are techniques. As I’ve argued earlier, what the nation needs is a plan. A bipartisan committee of experts will be set up to examine the issue and suggest solutions.

More than remain with the ready-fire-aim technique both parties have been taking, we need first to agree on solutions to some important questions.

How many production is required to avoid relying on China? Without the assistance of the government, how many new production can be created? Which companies deserve help? Which of the many probable techniques can you provide that support the best?

Another crucial issue for this fee may be whether to collaborate with other nations to reduce China’s dependence or to go it only. In my next article, I’ll address that query.

A base has been laid for this fee: Both parties agree there’s a problem. It’s for trying to see if they can agree on options. China Shock 2’s potential risks are such significant that a coordinated effort from all parties is required. This grant bipartisanship a possibility.

Previous lifelong Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, previously published on&nbsp, October 2 by the latter news business and then republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2024 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on&nbsp, X @urbanize

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Thai Airways aims for stock market return by next year

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PUBLISHED: 4 Oct 2024 at 04: 00

Thai Airways International ( THAI ) expects to exit rehabilitation and be relisted on the Stock Exchange of Thailand ( SET ) by the second quarter of next year, according to Piyasvasti Amranand, chairman of the airline’s debt rehabilitation administrator.

The growth follows the firm’s record-high gains of 28.1 billion ringgit last year and a steady increase in profits in the first quarter of this year, which Mr Piyasvasti said was due to a successful three-year treatment.

He claimed that the owners ‘ financial statements showed a purple 40.42 billion baht as of June 30 of this year.

Through a fresh funds reform plan, which is a component of the treatment, the airline intends to write off the remaining debts in the investor financial statement.

He said that the program includes a debt-to-equity transfer programme and rights offerings, or the offering of more shares to existing shareholders, which will make THAI for the precise relisting.

Despite this money reform, the Ministry of Commerce may still retain its main investor position, he said, adding the restructuring is expected to finish this year before the airline’s new board of directors is appointed.

He claimed that the airline would file a complaint with the Central Bankruptcy Court to leave the court-ordered recovery and would be relisted on the SET, perhaps by the second quarter of next year.

Chai Eamsiri, THAI’s CEO, said the airline’s capacity and power have been maximised once again, considering various measures, including available chair miles ( ASK), aircraft usage, and house issue. Request measures customer carrying capability.

Last year, the aircraft served about 13.8 million people, a 9 million increase from the previous month, while its gross income was recorded at 165.49 billion ringgit in 2023, which was 105.21 billion ringgit more than that of 2022, he said.

Following these developments, THAI has developed a new company credo,” Fly for The New Pride”, which signifies the airline’s fresh ambitious goal to do even better while sustaining company growth, he said.

With the aid of professional business reform, Mr. Chai stated,” We are moving forward to sustainable growth.” This will hopefully help to win back the trust of all Thai citizens in their country’s flag carrier once more.

THAI logged 12.63 billion baht or a 15.2 % profit growth in this year’s second quarter.

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Chinese stocks cool down as investors check reality – Asia Times

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After a week-long rally, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks returned on Thursday after economists were unable to accept the financial stimulus that the People’s Bank of China ( PBoC ) unveiled last week could put an end to China’s property crisis. &nbsp,

The Hang Seng Index, a benchmark of Hong Kong companies, fell 1.5 % to close at 22, 113 on Thursday. In the six trading days following the PBoC’s announcement of a number of monetary easing measures on September 24, the index increased by 4, 196 points, or 23 %. &nbsp,

Chinese property securities, which had gone over by 70-90 % over the past few years, even went on a rollercoaster ride in the past year.

Longfor Group decreased 9.5 % to HK$ 16.98 ( US$ 2.19 ) on Thursday after surging by 114 % in the previous six trading days. After increasing by 273 % from September 23 to October 2, Country Garden dropped 12.1 % on Thursday. &nbsp,

Shares of Agile Group were down 15.9 % to HK$ 1.64 on Thursday after a 353 % surge. China Vanke softened 1.2 % to HK$ 11.86 after a 163 % increase. &nbsp,

Since September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 21 % to close at 3,335. Due to National Day breaks, the A-share marketplaces were closed the rest of the year. &nbsp,

According to an ordinary prediction made by 25 Foreign economists who were approached by Nikkei, China’s gross domestic product is then projected to increase by 4.5 to 5.5 % for the entire year of 2024. This is down from the previous survey that was conducted in July. &nbsp,

Of the 25 economics, 17 lowered their perspectives while nine maintained their prediction. According to Nikkei, the third quarter’s GDP growth rate for China was 4.6 %, compared to 4.9 % for the same period last year.

On September 24, the PBoC made its strategies to lower borrowing costs and increase financing to businesses. &nbsp,

In order to provide borrowers with an additional 1 trillion yuan ( US$ 143 billion ) of loans, it initially reduced Chinese banks ‘ reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. Additionally, it decreased the reverse mortgage rate for 14 days by 10 base items, reaching 1.85 %.

A number of fiscal measures were introduced by the central government to encourage the desire part of the business. Additionally, it urged local institutions to rest their house laws to stop falling house prices. &nbsp,

According to academics at PGIM, previously known as Prudential Investment Management, the lowering of second home purchase restrictions “demonstrates some willingness to expand hands of residential real estate expense.” &nbsp,

” The intention is unlikely to revive real property to the point where it causes a private wealth consequence,” they claim. Instead, it’s likely to work to remove excess stock from the industry to prevent further decline in real estate prices. &nbsp,

The government’s financial easing and recently announced fiscal measures, including those involving child benefit support, some child benefit assistance, and pension reform initiatives, are expected to aid China in meeting its 5 % growth target over the coming year, according to PGIM economics. &nbsp,

They say that prior to last week’s announcements, China was growing at about 3 % annually, which is solidly below authorities ‘ stated annual growth target of 5 %. &nbsp,

” Despite&nbsp, the&nbsp, current&nbsp, surge&nbsp, in&nbsp, market&nbsp, enthusiasm, &nbsp, the&nbsp, lasting&nbsp, effects&nbsp, may have more coverage helps and take time to present,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief scholar in Asia Pacific region, Natixis CIB Research, says in a study review. The true test will be whether the financial underpinnings will change.

” China’s economy is now dealing with major issues&nbsp, such&nbsp, as&nbsp, persistently&nbsp, low&nbsp, prices, poor real&nbsp, estate&nbsp, costs, &nbsp, and&nbsp, declining record need,” she says”. Just after we&nbsp, see actual improvements in these areas may market confidence be completely restored.”

Limitations of stimuli

Some experts speculated that the PBoC’s price reductions may cause asset bubbles and lower margins for Chinese banks.

According to Duncan Innes-Ker, senior director of Fitch Wire at Fitch Ratings,” We expect bank net interest margins ( NIMs) to remain pressure-stricken in the second half of this year and the entire year of 2025.” Although rate reductions will improve asset quality, we also anticipate a moderate increase in the number of affected loans rated banks will have as a result of the slowdown in growth in 2025.

Besides, he says Fitch’s calculations show that outstanding bonds issued by local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) increased by 3.1 % year-on-year in June 2024.

” We expect LGFV debts to continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate than the 8.8 % boost in 2024, “he adds. &nbsp,

A Beijing-based author claims in an article that the PBoC’s most recent price cut is a significant step to try to improve the Chinese market but it needs more time to evaluate whether or not it will work. Policy makers does take significant steps to stop an economic sluggishness while putting an emphasis on economic reform to achieve steady long-term growth.

He recommends that the government be aware that rate increases could lead to asset bubbles and raise systemic economic risks without actually causing a rise in corporate investment. &nbsp,

Read: China releases pleasant flood of market-friendly signal

Following Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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Sri Lanka’s Dissanayake faces daunting debt dance – Asia Times

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In Sri Lanka, September 21 marked some milestones. Since Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation as the nation’s past elected president in 2022, thousands of people have registered to cast ballots in the first national elections since the country’s largest voter turnout.

A next round of counting had to be conducted after none of the candidates had secured the necessary 50 % of the vote, making it the first time in Sri Lanka’s story.

A matter of the second-choice vote revealed the biggest surprise in years. In Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sri Lankans, for the first time, elected a candidate who&nbsp, does no belong&nbsp, to the two major parties that have dominated the government’s politics since independence in 1948.

Dissanayake leads the National People’s Power alliance ( NPP ), which includes his Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna ( JVP ) – a party known for its left-wing policies.

Shortly after being sworn in as president, Dissanayake appointed an interim government of three officials. They included educational, female and human rights activist Harini Amarasuriya, who was selected as the second female prime minister in Sri Lanka’s story.

After that, he announced that a legislative election had been held on November 14 and that his Psc alliance’s 225-member parliament, which had only three votes in it, may be disbanded. There is no point continuing with a congress that is incompatible with what the folks want, Dissanayake has previously said.

Dissanayake has a challenging work ahead of him. In 2022, Sri Lanka repaid its debt and halted payments on US$ 78 billion in foreign and home loans, causing the worst economic crises in the country’s story.

And, while no more on the brink of collapse, the market is still in a vulnerable position. So how will Dissanayake revitalize Sri Lanka’s struggling business and, perhaps more importantly, will he be allowed to?

A key challenge for Dissanayake is negotiating the terms of the International Monetary Fund’s ( IMF)$ 2.9 billion bailout loan, which was based on an analysis that presented an overly optimistic outlook for economic growth.

In 2023, appointed operating president Ranil Wickremesinghe and his administration negotiated this product in the midst of a lot of controversy, and it came with incredibly hostile terms for the nation.

These included strict austerity measures, higher prices for necessary goods and services, and restructuring of local debt. This latter determine results in the loss of half of the benefit of working people’s retirement funds over the next 16 years.

Sri Lanka’s ability to meet a number of governmental goals was likewise a condition for the debt reduction. In order to meet these goals, the IMF program will reduce its public debt to 95 % of GDP by 2032, and spend 4 % of GDP each year on servicing its external debt once it is finished. 30 % of all government revenues are going to support debt, which is a major drain on the nation’s sparse resources.

The IMF deal has given the lenders ‘ interests more weight than it has placed on working-class Sri Lankans.

Public criticism has grown as a result of the pain caused by the cost-cutting and poverty. In March, for instance, thousands of workers at hospitals, schools and trains across Sri Lanka went on strike to protest against the government’s poverty travel.

What future?

In one of Wickremesinghe’s last speeches, it was revealed that a draft agreement had been reached with international lenders, who are owed$ 12.5 billion, to rebuild some of the nation’s additional debts. The agreement includes the issuance of new bonds that would monitor the nation’s financial recovery.

Some experts worry that these securities, which would have higher GDP payouts and would serve as no more than a sugar for the government’s creditors, may result in Sri Lanka becoming in debts by the end of the decade.

Dissanayake had first refrain from hurriedly agreeing to this deal with bondholders. But how can he maintain rise without relying on fresh debt? And, important, how can this progress become more equally distributed?

The NPP made it clear that the IMF would be a significant factor in the reform of Sri Lanka’s outside debt during the presidential campaign. Additionally, Dissanayake will need to collaborate strongly with the IMF to re-enter the terms of the financial support it offers. However, if conversations continue, there may be delays in receiving the following amount of money.

It is crucial to take novel conditions into account. Enhancement of social safety nets and incentives for more money to be spent on public services should be included in this new model. Alternatives will need to be found over the long run that include some of the debts that are owed, as well as governmental goals that are feasible, as well as reduce the risk of additional defaults.

Sri Lankans are clamoring for a change in the status quo. The IMF may need to pay attention if Sri Lankans support Dissanayake and the NPP in the upcoming common elections. The winds of change might had suddenly arrived.

Thiruni Kelegama lectures at the University of Oxford’s Oxford School of Global and Area Research on contemporary South Asian issues. At the University of Gothenburg, Kanchana N. Ruwanpura is a professor of growth landscape.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Commentary: Japan’s new prime minister has barely the concept of a plan

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Ishiba’s position on China is even harder to map out. He’s by turns hawkish and pragmatic, and seeks active diplomacy with Beijing that would benefit both sides – rhetoric that has changed little in almost a decade, the last time Ishiba held a significant position in the party – despite the geopolitical changes.

His self-styled identification with Tanzan Ishibashi, a journalist who became prime minister in the 1950s and who had promoted a pre-war “Small Japan-ism” that called to mind the Little Englanders of the 19th century who protested the British Empire’s expansion, might be the most telling:  A vision of Japan as an aloof country with strong borders but little ambition.

His economic policy is similarly slippery. He talks of boosting the lot of the less fortunate, and revitalising regions outside Tokyo. His political inspiration, the former prime minister Kakuei Tanaka, had similar promises – but also a plan to do so through great infrastructure projects such as the Shinkansen bullet train network.

FEW NEW IDEAS

If Ishiba has similar dreams, he’s not telling anyone. On Friday, he had few new ideas to help boost growth that is expected to be flat this year, and mostly called for continuing Kishida’s goal of raising wages.

In past remarks, as well as in his opposition to Abenomics, he has seemed to favour austerity. He has expressed support for Bank of Japan rate hikes, has said there’s room to raise both corporate and capital gains taxes, and has emphasised the importance of reducing Japan’s debt.

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