Thaksin: ‘No deal’ to bring me home

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Ex-PM draws 1, 400 at company conference in primary post-pardon presence as a star

PUBLISHED: 22 Aug 2024 at 22: 28

UPDATED: 22 Aug 2024 at 22: 43

Band of Billionaires: Thaksin Shinawatra sits next to Sarath Ratanavadi, CEO of Gulf Energy Development, and Dhanin Chearavanont, former chairman of Charoen Pokphand Group, ahead of the “Vision for Thailand” forum at which the ex-premier was the headline attraction, on Thursday evening in Bangkok. (Photo: Reuters)
Band of Billionaires: Thaksin Shinawatra sits following to Sarath Ratanavadi, CEO of Gulf Energy Development, and Dhanin Chearavanont, former president of Charoen Pokphand Group, ahead of the” Vision for Thailand” conference at which the ex-premier was the title attraction, on Thursday night in Bangkok. ( Photo: Reuters )

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra claimed on Thursday that no political arrangement was reached with his liberal foes to permit his return from 15 years of exile next month.

The parents of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the party’s father, Paetongtarn’s father, said during an on-stage exam at a community co-hosted by a local media team,” There is no offer, no one dares do a deal with me.”

On the day he returned to Thailand in August, he was given an eight-year prison sentence that was afterwards reduced to a month by a royal pardon. He previously spent a night in jail, spending most of his time at the officers General Hospital before receiving pardon in February. A few days ahead of schedule, a royal forgive last year made him a free man.

Thaksin added that the Pheu Thai government was worthy of halting the country’s economic crisis and that the country’s weariness would not get worse.

He also indicated that the group’s premier 450-billion-baht digital budget handout plan is needed to improve the sluggish market.

Our nation has grown quietly for a long time, he said, so we need to boost the economy.

“]The handout ] will be an immediate economic boost in September”.

There is a lot of speculation about whether the flyer could be drastically reduced and aimed solely at the really poor. Pheu Thai insists that it will continue in some form, maybe even as money in place of digital money.

” Little steps of isolationism”

In a wide-ranging speech, Thaksin even said Thailand should do more to protect the business from an influx of low-cost Foreign products, applying” little ways of protectionism”, he said.

” We do n’t dislike Chinese products but we have to find equality in competition”, he said.

When it came to interest charges, he said, the state and the Bank of Thailand should be able to speak, without affecting the university’s freedom.

In any case, he said, the nation must immediately address its high rates of private and public debts and put its focus on implementing measures to increase its growth rate in line with those of its neighbors in Southeast Asia.

The two-time leading said in a speech titled” Vision for Thailand” that” Thailand and its citizens are trapped in debt and that a debt restructuring program to protect the households and businesses should be pursued. &nbsp,

In Bangkok, Thaksin addressed a gathering of more than 1,400 bankers, company executives, and politicians, pointing out that the finance minister and other ministries may take the lead in reducing the serious debt problem.

The occasion marked Thaksin’s spectacular return to Thailand after he fled fraud claims in 2008, which was also celebrated at the occasion. &nbsp,

While Thaksin is unlikely to believe any formal or social position in the new government, he is expected to possess significant impact on Paetongtarn government’s plans.

Paetongtarn, who is still in the process of finalising her cabinet, faces the challenge of reviving an economy stifled by a near-record household debt, sluggish exports and the high cost of living.

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Thai central bank holds its key rate at 2.50%

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Bangkok: Following a court’s dismissal of the prime minister, the central bank of Thailand’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday ( Aug 21 ), as was widely anticipated. The Bank of Thailand’s ( BOT ) monetary policy committee voted 6-1 toContinue Reading

Commentary: Indonesia’s new capital of Nusantara shouldn’t be rushed

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PRABOWO’S Passions

Jokowi has handed him a finances that’s in good condition. The deficit&nbsp, for 2025 is projected to be 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, safely within the 3 per cent legal limit, the government announced on Friday ( Aug 16 ). &nbsp,

During his ten years in office, the retiring head is regarded as having implemented a sound fiscal policy. Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who is well-known by foreign shareholders, has assisted Jokowi in this endeavor.

The central company’s immediate purchase of bonds from the government, a crowdfunding of bill, was the one truly dangerous shift at the height of the crisis. That was a practice much shunned in polite economic&nbsp, lines. In a more regular atmosphere, such a stage may not be so quickly forgiven.

Prabowo, a former top basic, has bristled at wasting constraints and has pledged a big increase to&nbsp, economic development. He wants an annual increase in GDP of 8 per share, the figure has been closer&nbsp, to 5 per cent over the past century.

It’s unclear whether he truly believes this is possible or if it’s just an appearance of his passion. &nbsp, Every occasion Prabowo expresses anger at Indonesia’s narrow path, assistants clean up the mess by expressing loyalty to the rules and tamping down&nbsp, business stress. His choice of finance secretary may be crucial. &nbsp,

The president-elect has promised to end Nusantara, the initial period of which was scheduled for execution this year. By 2045, Jokowi projects there will be close to 2 million residents and workers that. How serious is this determination?

” I’ve told him Nusantara advancement will take 10, 15, 20 times”, Jokowi told reporters last month. ” He said’ that’s never hard enough for me- I want four, five, six times.’ It’s off to him”. Taken at face value, this puts pressure on Prabowo’s personal mission, including a$ 29 billion vow of free lunches for children. &nbsp,

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US-China financial stress hotline a well-timed connection – Asia Times

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It could hardly be much timed for the US and China to announce how to handle upcoming “financial stress occasions” in the country’s two biggest economies and above.

This dialogue platform is the most renowned product from last week’s conference of the Financial Working Group&nbsp, created next season following US Treasury Secretary&nbsp, Janet Yellen’s 2023 China visit.

The idea, according to the People’s Bank of China, is to help “professional, logical, candid and creative” diplomatic discussions on money markets, cross-border bills and monetary policy styles.

The exchange of “lists of economic stability connections” will be beneficial as the chances of the world economy and financial markets becoming unstable grow by the day.

At the moment, the US market is on quite a move. Consider Barclays planner Erick Martinez among those who are “back to the US soft-landing scenario” after perusing the most recent data. Martinez factors to the recent rise in currencies, which boosted fears of the US recession previously.

But there’s still enough scope for unpleasant surprises. Another investor is concerned that Jerome Powell’s group is now acting very weak in the face of persistently high inflation, just like the US Federal Reserve has been.

For any businessman betting” King Dollar” may continue to defy weight, another is eyeing the US federal loan topping US$ 35 trillion with extraordinary dread.

That’s especially so as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the BRICS, lead a demand among Gulf area and International South nations to tear the dollar’s dominance and make significant progress.

Never mind the US vote on November 5, which is almost certain to go down in secrecy if Donald Trump loses. The uprising he sparked at the US Capitol caused America’s credit score to fall along with it when the former US president lost in 2020.

In August 2023, when Fitch Ratings revoked Washington’s Professional position, it said fragmentation, partly reflected in the January 6, 2021 rebellion, was vital to the decision. The insurrection was a “reflection of the deterioration in governance,” as Fitch analyst Richard Francis put it, putting US finances at risk.

Many political observers and market observers think that Trump’s chances of admitting defeat to Democratic Party standard bearer Kamala Harris in November are essentially nonexistent. Might that prompt Moody’s Investors Service to yank away America’s last AAA credit rating?

A Trump victory might be a good thing for the newly established US-China “financial stability contacts list.” If the ex-leader sticks to his campaign trail rhetoric, which threatened to impose 60 % taxes on Chinese goods and broader import taxes, then Trump 2.0 would likely try to start a great trade war once more.

Risks emanating from China, meanwhile, are high and rising. Home prices that are falling continue to lower property investment and lower consumer spending.

In the first seven months of 2024, China’s fixed-asset investment growth slowed more than expected, rising just 3.6 % to 28.7 trillion yuan ($ 4 trillion ).

According to Lynn Song, ING Bank’s chief economist for Greater China, “unsurprisingly remained weak.” He continues,” we think that there is still a strong case for further easing later this year.”

According to Lynn, “weak credit, low inflation, and soft growth should provide abundant reasons for easing, and there should be little holding the PBOC back from further cuts” if yuan depreciation pressures decline after US rate cuts begin.

Indeed, the PBOC has been lowering rates. On July 22, for example, the PBOC cut the one-year loan prime rate benchmark to 3.35 % from 3.45 %. It was the first cut in this category since August 2023.

To economist Zhang Zhiwei, president of Pinpoint Asset Management, it was a” step in the right direction”. But, Zhang says, “monetary policy is not the most important policy tool. The impact of fiscal policy on the second half of the year is crucial.

For President Xi Jinping’s team, the fiscal piece of the puzzle remains a work in progress. The typical strategy of increasing infrastructure spending wo n’t, according to Societe Generale’s economists, produce the required multiplier effect this time around. Nor will increasing export orders be done, especially as the West constructs protective walls against them.

” The Chinese economy, given its size, cannot run on manufacturing and exports alone”, Societe Generale wrote. If domestic demand is still the target, policymakers must increase support for it in order to meet the 5 % growth target.

It’s clear the “economy’s momentum slowed”, notes economist Ding Shuang at Standard Chartered Plc. Policymakers would also be concerned about the goal of achieving 5 % growth this year because of this.

Neralla Rama Ravi Teja, a GlobalData analyst, stated that” an increase in household consumption will give a push to the consumer footfall at these outlets. In addition, with the property sector and exports struggling, the country’s economic stability is dependent on increasing consumer spending and restoring consumers ‘ confidence”.

Teja continues,” China will have to reduce its dependence on manufacturing and shift its focus to the services sector.” In the near future, the government is likely to take additional measures to increase its domestic consumption.

Rory Green, the chief China economist at TS Lombard, notes that” we continue to see consumption decelerating” as confidence, income and negative wealth effects caused by weak property and stocks undermine growth.

As investors become more wary of the outlook’s economic outlook, China may be in the middle of its first year of outflows from equities this year. At the same time, China’s overcapacity troubles are causing new strains in different sectors.

Earlier this month, Hengchi, an electric vehicle ( EV ) maker owned by China Evergrande Group, went bankrupt. Being severely short of money and having to deal with obligations to creditors and, in some cases, local governments are not alone.

To be sure, the causes of China’s overcapacity woes are n’t straightforward, notes economist Yang Yao at the National School of Development at Peking University. There is a strong argument that China is benefiting from efforts to boost productivity in order to strengthen its pricing position.

” The extent of China’s overcapacity problem has become increasingly evident in recent years”, Yao argues. ” While the Chinese economy accounts for 17 % of global GDP, it&nbsp, produces 35 % &nbsp, of the world’s manufacturing output. Exports have historically helped to balance this imbalance, but in the face of declining global demand and escalating geopolitical tensions, Chinese exporters are increasingly being forced to compete on price.

How can China address its overcapacity issue? The” seemingly obvious solution”, Yao says, “is to increase domestic demand. However, this requires changing the population’s saving behavior, which would take time. Moreover, given its aversion to taking on debt, it is doubtful that the government will boost its spending”.

In the meantime, “regrettably, increased geopolitical tensions have knocked many countries, including the US and China, off the optimal path”, Yao says. It is incumbent on both nations to lead and collaborate to restore the world economy in light of the potential global repercussions of Sino-American decoupling.

The good news is that Beijing and Washington are now able to exchange lists of financial stability contacts to deal with any upcoming financial stress events, hopefully in real time.

According to the PBOC, that will “help financial management departments of both sides maintain timely and smooth communication channels and lessen uncertainty when financial stress events and financial institutions’ operational risks occur”

The bad news is that as the world financial system enters a uniquely chaotic period, these channels of communication are sure to be roost early and frequently. Perhaps 24/7.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Tightening of HDB loan limits will have limited impact on property market in the long run, say analysts

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Property analysts CNA spoke to on Tuesday ( Aug 20 ) and said the tightening of the Housing and Development Board ( HDB) loan limits may slow down demand in the short term but it will have a small impact on prices in the long run.

Late on Monday, HDB and the Ministry of National Development ( MND ) announced that the loan-to-value ( LTV ) cap for HDB loans will be lowered from 80 % to 75 %, thereby lowering the maximum amount that home buyers can borrow from HDB. &nbsp,

Since December 2021, when the LTV for HDB loans was lowered from 90 % to 85 %, this set of property cooling measures is the fourth. It was &nbsp, further reduce to 80 per cent&nbsp, in September 2022.

Mr Lee Sze Teck, top producer of data analysis at Huttons, said&nbsp, the sale need may decrease briefly in the near term as purchasers take inventory of the new measures.

But, over time, he said demand will return and costs will continue to rise.

Mr Lee added that an estimated 7, 000 cottages may reach their maximum job time ( MOP) next yr- lower than this year’s estimated 12, 000 cottages. As such, &nbsp, he said HDB resale prices may continue to rise next year.

There is also a “possibility” that there may be more gains in the prices of two-room and three-room resale flats, according to Mr Lee. &nbsp,

He claimed that most buyers for four-bedroom and larger flats do not see an increase in grants and use bank loans for their purchases, so the most recent cooling measures are of” no difference to them.”

However, prices are likely to increase as a result of the lower supply of 4- and 5-bedroom apartments that are currently available on the open market after passing the MOP ( minimal occupation period ).

Mr. Nicholas Mak, the chief research officer at property technology portal Mogul, shared his thoughts. Sg, who agreed that the measures will have a constrained effect on the market. &nbsp,

” It will probably slow down the rising prices of HDB flats but… this measure cannot be used alone, it has to be used in conjunction with… a steady, strong supply of Build-to-Order ( BTO ) flats because this measure only addresses the demand side of the equation, it does not address supply side”, said Mr Mak. &nbsp,

He added that those who are currently in financial predicaments will be affected by the tightening of loan limits.

” This group will try to max out their loan-to-value ratio, their total debt servicing ratio… to buy the HDB flat”, he said.

FINANCIAL PRUDENCY

In a television interview with CNA presenter Elizabeth Neo, Professor&nbsp, Sing Tien Foo, &nbsp, provost’s chair professor in the real estate department at the National University of&nbsp, Singapore’s business school, said the reduction in loan-to-value limit can help to boost financial prudency of buyers especially in the HDB resale market. &nbsp,

He noted that in the first two quarters of this year, HDB resale property prices increased by about 4 % &nbsp.

” A lot of these are driven by the mature HDB market transactions, especially the more expensive transactions in the first half of the year” ,&nbsp, said Prof Sing. &nbsp,

I believe that this action is intended to actually slow down or stabilize the resale market rather than to dampen property prices, particularly in the resale market.

He questioned whether additional steps could be taken to reduce the private property sector, despite the high prices that are still present. &nbsp,

” I believe it’s crucial to actually keep an eye on the situation without actually making too early an intervention. At the moment, I think this can actually bring uncertainty to the market”.

RAISING OF GRANTS COUNTERINTUITIVE?

The enhanced&nbsp, Central Provident Fund ( CPF ) Housing Grant, which will see eligible&nbsp, first-timer families get up to&nbsp, S$ 120, 000, up from the current&nbsp, S$ 80, 000 limit, will benefit lower-income groups the most, said property analysts. &nbsp,

With no restrictions on the location or type of flat, the amounts are distributed according to household income.

Depending on the monthly household income, the increase will range from S$ 5, 000 to S$ 40, 000 for families and from S$ 2, 500 to S$ 20, 000 for singles, with higher increases for lower-income households who require more support.

” The cooling measures (tightening of HDB loan limits ) is a broad-based measure, regardless of income level, but at least the grants will help to cushion this for the lower income bracket. The lower their income, the bigger the cushion”, said Mr Mak.

Ms&nbsp, Christine Sun, chief researcher&nbsp, and strategist at OrangeTee Group, noted the measures seem to be” carefully calibrated”.

Despite the lower LTV, those who require financial assistance, such as those in the lower income groups and first-time buyers who are eligible, will still be able to afford an HDB flat because they will be receiving more assistance, she said, in the form of the enhanced CPF Housing Grant. &nbsp,

” This is a good move as the measures will likely be more targeted”, Ms Sun added.

Mr Lee said this might also, conversely, encourage some buyers to spend more on their house. &nbsp,

” When you increase the grant, there’s a possibility that people can take this amount… and pay more or the seller may ask for more money”, he said. &nbsp,

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Thai growth quickens in Q2 on higher consumption, tourism

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BANGKOK: Thailand’s economic growth strengthened in the second quarter due to higher consumption, tourism and exports, official data showed on Monday ( Aug 19 ), and the government narrowed its full-year growth forecast range. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew 2.3 per cent in the April-June quarter from a year earlier,Continue Reading

Govt urged to fund debt help scheme

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Money to purchase seized property

PUBLISHED: 17 Aug 2024 at 06: 20

The Land Bank Administration Institute needs more cash, according to the Supha Wongsena Foundation for Debtors ‘ Rights Reform, to help people pay off their debts.

The Department of Special Investigation ( DSI) held a seminar on reducing household debt last Thursday at the DSI Academy in the Nong Chok district.

Arjin Joonglook, the foundation’s evil president, said her company is working on a job to help debt avoid having their possessions seized. She used an instance from Phatthalung as an illustration.

One person allegedly owed money to the Government Savings Bank, but Ms. Arjin contacted the basis for assistance. The Land Bank of the Land Bank Administration Institute product was obtained by the foundation for the debtor.

The creditor submitted his loan application, and in three to six months, he was given a loan to buy back his home. Additionally, the institution provided him with career education so he could make more money.

” I want the government to give the Land Bank a bigger finances,” said Ms. Arjin, so that it can assist more borrowers in resolving their economic issues asap.

The administration’s plan to “end women’s hardship”, which next prime minister Srettha Thavisin announced on May 17 of last year, includes plans to address issues regarding various types of loan, including home loan, debts owed to farmers, and debts owed to the Student Loan Fund, said Justice Minister Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, who attended the conference.

According to Pol Col Tawee, the government has at least partially met the aim, citing the Interior Ministry’s success in settling casual debts.

But, he said 90 % of all debts are elegant ones, adding three million cases related to such debts, worth tens of thousands of baht, have been filed with the Legal Execution Department, with lenders in 700, 000 cases having had their property seized.

The minister claimed that the government’s top priority is to assist citizens in paying off their official debts. A 470 million baht budget was approved by the House’s subcommittee on land, buildings, and state enterprises at a meeting last Friday. The budget was approved without being reduced by the subcommittee.

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Secondhand smoke “kills 9,400 per year”

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PUBLISHED: 17 Aug 2024 at 04: 00

According to a new report, more than 9, 000 people die annually in Thailand from secondhand smoke, which is a price higher than that in the United States.

According to a source, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council ( NESDC ) recently gave the cabinet a report on the nation’s social situation for the first quarter of 2024.

Important issues included workers problems, home loan, safety, consumer protection, and health, especially the consumption of alcohol and cigarettes. According to the review, there were 259 and 672 people who were afflicted with clinical monitoring conditions in the first third of this year, an increase of 80 % from the previous year.

The rise was primarily attributable to ongoing outbreaks from the previous year, which included dengue fever, which increased by 106.8 % and influenza, which increased by 195.2 %.

Additionally, the report found a 7.7 % increase in alcohol consumption, most likely as a result of New Year’s Eve celebrations, while a 1 % decrease in cigarette usage. The report addressed concerns about vintage smoke’s effects, though.

It cited data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which revealed that 9, 433 Thai people pass away from secondhand smoking each year, more than the 7, 300 cases that have been documented in the United States. The report recommended that government agencies launch campaigns against smoking in public spaces, maintain laws, and establish designated smoking regions to lessen exposure to secondhand smoke.

Dr Suwanna Ruangkanchanaset, deputy director-general of the Tobacco Control Research and Knowledge Management Center ( TRC ), said some parents still believe that e-cigarettes are harmless and legal.

The TRC has urged the government to take action on the issue and aims to teach parents about the risk of e-cigarettes, according to Dr. Suwanna.

Dr Adisak Plitponkarnpim, from the Royal College of Paediatricians of Thailand and chairman of Mahidol University’s National Institute for Child and Family Department, warned that smoke, a key component of e-cigarette smoke drink, may cause blood vessels to constrict, leading to pneumonitis and various health problems.

Because children’s brains are in the development stage, he said, the results are even worse in them. The very addictive chemical may affect mental function, memory, attention and feelings.

Vaping also raises the possibility that young people will switch from traditional smoking as they get older, which could lead to the use of illegal drugs.

He even warned against the same health risks as soot from conventional cigarettes by citing an American Heart Association research.

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Handout scheme”s fate hangs in balance after Srettha”s exit

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The highly praised digital wallet system is now under uncertainty as a result of Settha Thavisin’s departure as prime minister, with the decision Pheu Thai Party and the cupboard eliciting conflicting opinions regarding its future.

Those who have signed up for the 10,000-baht handbook have also voiced concerns about the misuse and theft of their personal data.

The expulsion of the entire case was a result of Mr. Srettha’s dismissal on Wednesday, leaving ministers in a caregiver capacity.

The new government now has the power to decide the future of the modern pocket policy, with Pheu Thai urging its chief Paetongtarn Shinawatra or former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri to take Mr. Srettha’s place.

Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat stated yesterday that the new cabinet must approve any changes to the modern handout system.

He was responding to reports that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is widely regarded as the de facto leader of Pheu Thai, had informed coalition party officials that the ruling party’s online handout plan may be abandoned.

Soon after Mr. Srettha was sacked as prime minister by the Constitutional Court for appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban to the government, the party officials were informed of the shift during an immediate conference with Thaksin at his Bangkok home. According to reports, the meeting was called to discuss Pheu Thai’s choice of Mr. Chaikasem to achieve Mr. Srettha.

” We must wait until the new government’s plan speech is released.” Only then will we be sure whether the modern handout plan will change, Mr. Julapun said. He acknowledged that Mr. Srettha’s departure may thwart the completion of the program and other important projects. Phuket will have to decide whether to continue with the flyer program, he said.

However in parliament yesterday, Democrat Party MP for Phatthalung, Romtham Kham-urak, said monday that members of the public who have signed up for the handout are worried about the security of their personal information if the system, which was set to launch in November, is discontinued. He urged acting prime minister Phumtham Wechayachai to make sure the information does n’t end up in the wrong hands.

When Pichai Chunhavajira, the interim finance minister, was questioned about the future of the modern budget plan, he responded that the choice was not his.

Pakorn Nilprapan, secretary-general of the Council of State, the president’s legal shoulder, said that as a matter of process, the system may be paused in the midst of Mr Srettha’s departure.

But, Sorawong Thienthong, Pheu Thai’s secretary-general, maintained that the online cash handbook will continue, stating that the party has an unwavering commitment to carry out its flagship policy.

He claimed that none of the alliance lovers of Pheu Thai disagreed with the position.

In the meantime, several persons who were interviewed by the Bangkok Post said they had lost trust in the budget plan and were uncertain whether it would continue under a new prime minister.

Lert Abphakwan, a native of Nakhon Ratchasima, said he did not believe the plan would ever become a reality and that there was no chance it would ever materialize.

The handbook plan should go away, according to motorbike taxi driver Arnon Inpanpanao, but most people would prefer cash over digital money.

” I feel bad for those who bought new phones just to sign up for the modern budget scheme,” he said.

Some residents of Buri Ram expressed concern about the program’s potential and the possibility that their individual data may end up in the wrong hands. Local merchants Ben, 59, and Ya, 61, both of whom claimed they hoped the program may reduce their house bill, are included.

In Khon Kaen’s Muang area, Samrerng Rodthong, 46, said the program will vanish along with Mr Srettha.

In Si Sa Ket, Thatchanok Pimthong, 52, of Wang Hin area, said the scheme was dubious from the start, as it looked to gain significant businesses over little vendors like her. ” Policies may come across as attractive, but they are useless if they are not practical”, she said.

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