Shanghai lifts home-buying curbs to boost property sector

Shanghai has relaxed the requirements for purchasing real estate in the area as regional institutions around China try to redress a tense real estate crisis that is dragging the business. In an effort to combat rising prices and widespread speculating, some cities implemented restrictions and strict funds requirements on homeContinue Reading

A pivotal moment for Japan’s national defense – Asia Times

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with sort agreement. Read the&nbsp, original&nbsp, and became a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, around.

I’ve been writing a lot about&nbsp, the threat of a major war in Asia, but I have n’t written much about Japan’s role in that equation. However, such a war would be at its very beginning. A Chinese seizure of Taiwan had &nbsp, set Japan’s surveillance in grave danger. How’s a translated offer from a Chinese Army officer &nbsp, training guide:

Japan’s maritime communications lines of communication will absolutely be within the striking ranges of China’s fighters and bombers once Taiwan is reunified. Blockades can lead to a decrease in sea shipments and even lead to a famine in the Chinese islands. &nbsp,

And China’s adviser to Japan&nbsp, just said&nbsp, that “once the nation of Japan is tied to the tank plotting to cut China, the Chinese people may be brought into the fireplace”.

Given the extreme immediate danger, Japan’s security policy going forth seems really important. I suggested that the land may &nbsp, build nuclear arms, but there are probably plenty of other items the country’s officials can do with regard to their regular military functions.

One man with plenty of ideas is&nbsp, Jonathan Grady, a foundation director at the consultancy&nbsp, Canary Group, who has done&nbsp, proper analyses&nbsp, of&nbsp, the Quad’s role&nbsp, in Eastern stability and who often writes about&nbsp, Chinese defense policy.

He explains some of the political and economic obstacles that Japan will face in order to maintain its defense-building and maintain its own safety in this tourist article.

Japan Has Decide Quickly About Major Defense Upgrades.

Japan stands at a pivotal time, facing serious decisions about its security plan. Japan is increasing its defense budget by 60 % in an effort to increase its ability to control Indo-Pacific security, which is a significant increase.

This increase in spending is intended to promote regional harmony and help Tokyo deter China. However, the leaders ‘ indecisibility, a complex political landscape, and severe financial constraints threaten to derail the historic development.

The decision result is significant because the stakes are high and deterrence planning is being developed across capitals while competing against political survival. The lack of political will and precise funding mechanisms encourage sincere action in Japan as it approaches its election year to determine the scope and funding of its defense goals.

These choices will determine whether Japan makes the necessary defenses or accepts significant concessions.

Strengthening Japan’s defense posture

The historic post-World War II construction aims to strengthen Tokyo’s deterrence against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, a region crucial to international security. Additionally, it is a component of a wider international strategy to keep the status quo at peace despite China’s competing territorial claims.

The urgency of these plans is highlighted by Japan’s unique island geography and the vulnerability of American bases on its soil. Notably, Japan has the&nbsp, world’s second- largest fleet&nbsp, of advanced F- 35 fighter aircraft and is buying&nbsp, hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles, enabling Tokyo counterstrike capabilities against enemy bases, and bolstering its defense and the security of American bases and troops.

Four F- 22 Raptors from the 199th Fighter Squadron fly alongside a U. S. Air Force KC- 135 Stratotanker from the 909th Air Refueling Squadron during fifth- generation fighter training near Mount Fuji, Japan, April 1, 2021. The Raptors are currently operating out of Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, in support of U. S. Indo- Pacific Command’s dynamic force employment concept. Photo: US Air Force / Senior Airman Rebeckah Medeiros

However, there is a high-stakes conflict over whether Japan’s political will and financial resources will support more money. Tokyo might not be able to defend itself as it had hoped.

Even if Japan managed to secure the majority of its wish-list items, Tokyo’s potential limited ammunition reserves from a budget tightening might hinder some of its newly discovered defense capabilities.

Due to their proximity to potential conflict, &nbsp, American bases in Japan are targets. These bases and soldiers are deserving of Japan’s lack of previously planned capabilities.

Due to the pressures on the defense budget and the implications for security, the Japanese government must address its defense expenditure quandary soon.

Funding challenges and political indecision

While Japan’s defense ambitions are clear, the path to achieving them is fraught with financial and political challenges. Japan’s buildup efforts are undermined by its inaction in funding its soaring defense budget.

The lack of clarity regarding funding has made the construction vulnerable despite a difficult political environment. The Japanese government is in a more unfavorable political position as time goes on, despite several delays in funding plans.

As part of Japan’s new&nbsp, National Security Strategy, the Japanese government last year set aside a 43 trillion yen ( approximately US$ 300 billion at the time ) defense budget for five years, a 60 % increase from previous defense spending.

The expanded defense budget aims to improve Tokyo’s ability to repel China and North Korea and strengthen its counterstrike arsenal.

Arleigh Burke- class guided- missile destroyer USS Barry launches Tomahawk cruise missile, Source: US Navy

The Japanese public is aware of the benefits of the defense policy, but not in terms of funding it. Over the past two years, this has resulted in a constant indecision about how to fully fund the spending increases.

The budget included one trillion yen ( approximately$ 7.3 billion at the time ) in tax hikes intended to help fund the increases, to be implemented at&nbsp,” an appropriate time in or after 2024″ .&nbsp,

This ambiguous language was intended as a compromise to reduce unpopular tax increases while reducing defense spending. Unfortunately, the Japanese government delayed the hikes several times, now&nbsp, punting tax hikes to 2026.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party government asserts&nbsp, it will respect the planned defense increases, &nbsp, if the tax hikes are implemented by 2026. Further ambiguity raises questions about whether defense priorities will be fully or partially funded, which undermines the credibility of the Japanese government.

The government had a flurry of election-related ideas for almost a year, compounding its indifference. During the past summer, speculation peaked that the government would call an election to lock in electoral gains, as it was enjoying&nbsp, a spike in polls surpassing 50 % in approval&nbsp, following foreign policy victories.

Unfortunately, the government did not call an election after months of consideration. The Kishida government&nbsp, approval polls then precipitously dropped, even before an unprecedented corruption scandal was publicly known.

The Japanese government missed its best chance to organize an election when it was at a winning position, which led to a significant loss of opportunity to secure the government’s coveted defense funding. The Kishida government missed its best chance before the corruption scandal, as the&nbsp and Nikkei Asia graph demonstrate.

Source: &nbsp, Nikkei Asia

The indecision does not come as a surprise. In an analysis earlier this past year in Nikkei Asia, I indicated that&nbsp, the Japanese government needed to move fast&nbsp, on passing its tax hikes. If it did n’t pass the tax increases quickly enough, it ran the risk of reversing its course on the schedule.

A coalition that included some of the current government’s inner circle members would oppose the unpopular tax increases, I added. I said that these people would act indifferently out of political will.

Since that time, Prime Minister Kishida announced&nbsp, abrupt cabinet changes, unsuccessfully shifting public opinion. Some of these members of the inner circle were viewed as not being enough devoted to the Prime Minister.

Significant political constraints compound the Japanese government’s indecision. The Japanese government severely wounded itself with a recent unprecedented political scandal, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s faction, the largest faction in the Japanese government, was &nbsp, running a secret slush fund.

The scheme implicated senior lawmakers, leading to resignations from the Prime Minister’s cabinet. The unpopular tax increases have been postponed and the prime minister’s agenda has suffered a major blow as a result of the unprecedented scandal, which has a unsettling backdrop and caused him to struggle for political survival.

Government polling has historically been poor. A recent poll found approval for the Prime Minister’s cabinet dropped to&nbsp, 16.6 %, the worst polling in over 10 years&nbsp, since the Prime Minister’s Liberal Democratic Party came to power in 2012.

Another poll found a&nbsp, disapproval rate of 74 % &nbsp, for the Prime Minister’s cabinet, among the worst polling&nbsp, in over 75 years&nbsp, since recording began in 1947. A Nikkei poll found a&nbsp, record high 69 % disapproval&nbsp, of the Prime Minister’s cabinet since he came to office.

Unsurprisingly, unpopular tax increases have been pushed aside in a time of historically unpopular polling, even if they were intended for crucial national defense spending. However, there was indifference over how to finance the spending increases long before the polls dropped, causing harm to Japan’s defense plans.

Its leaders also had a significant chance to lock in their gains because of their indifference. Japan will have to figure out a way to cover the increases in defense spending. To address these funding challenges, the government has explored strategies related to asset sales, including a&nbsp, sale of government shares&nbsp, in NTT, a major Japanese telco.

If Japan cannot fund its own defense buildup, the government’s prolonged indecision will damage planned defense capabilities and potentially its own credibility.

Economic hurdles in defense spending

Financial constraints further complicate Japan’s defense ambitions. Its ability to purchase sophisticated defense systems, which could compromise strategic initiatives, is directly affected by its recent currency devaluation and its significant debt levels.

Raising debt to finance spending, a common practice in the past, now raises concerns due to Japan’s already substantial debt. There are concerns that Japan’s high, significant debt levels are currently too high, which could harm the country’s economy. Japan already carries substantial debt, prompting warnings from some economists.

A prominent Japanese economist, responding to proposals for debt to fund the defense buildup, described a debt proposal as&nbsp, “unsustainable” .&nbsp, According to the NYU Stern Volatility Lab, when normalized for GDP Japan has faraway the&nbsp, largest amount of financial systemic risk&nbsp, from its debt among developed financial markets.

In the event of a financial crisis, Japan’s systemic risk amounts to over 17 % of its GDP. As illustrated below, Japan leads systemic risk among developed financial markets, highlighting economic vulnerabilities.

Source: &nbsp, NYU Stern V- Lab

Japanese banks are at risk of a capital shortfall that would be very detrimental in the event of a financial crisis. If the Japanese yield curve were to increase, the financial sector, which owns a sizable portion of the country’s sovereign debt, would suffer collateral damage as a result.

Japan is also a graying nation with&nbsp, over half its budget&nbsp, dedicated to social spending and debt servicing. Additional debt raises can further weigh against the government’s budget and create a more&nbsp, challenging financial situation&nbsp, for the Japanese government.

Compounding financial challenges, the recent drop in Japanese currency has reduced Japan’s buying power for defense acquisitions. The then-$ 300 Billion five- year budget set in December 2022 questionably&nbsp, assumed a 108 yen to dollar exchange rate.

However, the rate at the time was approximately 130 yen to the dollar, at the time, the lower 108 rate had not been seen in over a year since 2021. The exchange rate subsequently surged to over 150 yen to the dollar, further&nbsp, diminishing Japan’s buying power&nbsp, for major defense acquisitions.

Japan has already reduced some of its military aircraft purchases, but it’s not yet clear whether further reductions will occur. The depreciating currency also reduces the purchasing power of the unpopular tax increases intended to pay for defense.

Japan will need more money to make up for its depreciated currency and weak purchasing power in order to continue making the planned purchases. Japan’s increasingly difficult financial situation only makes the debate over funding its defense buildup a more delicate and difficult issue.

Japan’s role in Indo- Pacific security

Despite these challenges, Japan has been able to play a crucial role and see notable progress in regional security.

Japan’s role is a component of a more sophisticated and sophisticated effort to coordinate military action with allies and partners in the area to bolster Chinese aggression and promote a peaceful Indo-Pacific region. One of the least understood, most complicated, and consequential trends in defense diplomacy is this overlapping effort.

Among its substantial efforts, Japan helps facilitate overlapping defense cooperation. Within the last year, Tokyo has signed significant reciprocal access agreements with&nbsp, the United Kingdom&nbsp, and&nbsp, Australia. These agreements, in addition to an existing agreement with the US, give each nation’s armed forces the ability to train and conduct operations on Japanese soil.

A reciprocal agreement is also being negotiated with&nbsp, France, further expanding Japan’s coordinator role for foreign militaries. Another deal in progress with US allies the Philippines would allow Japanese troops to conduct operations in the highly strategic South China Sea.

These agreements significantly improve regional deterrence and stability and signal a unified stance against aggression. The coordination meshwork enables a greater degree of coordination with a larger number of armed forces that are close to China’s waters by allowing different partner militaries to train and operate on Japanese soil at the same time.

While signaling deterrence, peacefully managing the relationship with China for Japan is still highly important. Prime Minister Kishida’s last meeting with Xi Jinping reaffirmed the two nations ‘&nbsp,” strategic relationship” .&nbsp, Overlapping defense diplomacy is helping to enhance deterrence and promote a peaceful regional status quo.

With maritime cooperation, this meshwork extends beyond Japanese soil. In a past project I originated for CNBC, I anticipated&nbsp, the extent of maritime coordination&nbsp, between Japan and other countries while managing a continuing relationship with China. Because of the dynamic nature of China’s interaction, the larger implication is significant and poorly understood by experts.

The closer coordination of defense efforts promotes regional peace through a shared mission, integrated defense strategies, and increased costs associated with potential conflict. By bolstering coalition defense might, Japan’s defense buildup contributes to these objectives. To overcome the difficulties that come with its buildup, Japan must overcome the challenges to fully capitalize on its international leadership.

Japan’s critical decision point

The decisions made at this time will determine Japan’s future capabilities and influence in the Indo-Pacific because it is at a crucial point in its defense strategy. These decisions have significant implications for Japan’s role in regional security in addition to having an impact on its security.

The stakes are high as the clock is ticking and financial uncertainty looms. The Japanese government is confronted by a tumultuous political environment at home, severe financial constraints, and a lagging leadership force. Leaders juggling domestic and international politics must strike a balance between these issues as the election year approaches.

Tokyo must take action to secure the necessary funding in response to security concerns nationwide and regional. It is crucial to understand that leaders typically act in their own interests in this high-stakes defense dilemma. In the midst of an unprecedented government corruption scandal, this self-interest has already resulted in a lack of decisive leadership regarding defense funding.

To address Japan’s defense challenges effectively, leaders ‘ motivations must align with national defense. In a crucial election year, whether this alignment occurs or whether it results in significant compromises, Japan will have a guiding star as it seeks to achieve its defense goals.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with sort agreement. Read the&nbsp, original&nbsp, and became a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, around.

Continue Reading

Monk caper; bullet in bed; undertaker”s woe; polite robber

Monk caper; bullet in bed; undertaker's woe; polite robber
Phra Thongkham

An Uthai Thani person is calling on his estranged wife to evaluate after she reportedly ran off with an accidental priest.

Sanan ( no surname provided ), 61, pleaded tearfully via the media for his wife, Nanthawan ( no surname provided ), 53, to return to their marital home in Nong Chang district, which she left on May 9.

Sanan said he is willing to forgive her mistakes with the priest, Phra Thongkham. He also wants her support caring for their 30 cats and dogs, not to mention paying off their combined 500,000 ringgit loan.

The partners were together more than 30 times when Nanthawan took a liking to the priest from near Wat Nong Krathum.

Phra Thongkham, 58, formerly from Surin, was booted out of the church about the same time as Sanan’s woman disappeared after the priest caught them up, confirming her husband’s concerns that they had drawn very close.

The abbot, Phra Athikanrawai Mahawiriyo, chasedPhra Thongkhamout of the temple on May 8 after witnessing him and Nanthawan behaving inappropriately.

” What are you doing? ” the priest, who had secreted himself behind the church house where he knew the pair liked to satisfy, bellowed at the couple when he saw them standing so close to each other they could have been hugging.

Like evil school children, they immediately pushed each additional away.

Sanan shouts while calling his family.

Nanthawan was a regular visitor to the church under an agreement with the priest where her father had pick up left meal to help defray the cost of feeding the large number of cats and dogs they raised at home. Nanthawan would do the food at the church in return.

The priest used to handle the design himself, but after Phra Thongkham, whose rooms were near, and Nanthawan exchanged figures, he left the job of overseeing things to the priest, who was with the church for five years before he strayed.

” I had heard about them carrying on for some time. If locals found out, the temple would suffer, so I tossed out the monk when he refused to swear that he had done nothing wrong,” Phra Athikanrawai said, while cheerfully showing reporters the spot where he saw the couple standing. Monastic rules forbid contact between monks and women.

Sanan said he had been suspicious about his wife’s contact with the monk for the past year or so. ” She would often get home from the temple as late as 10pm even though the temple is just 2km away,” he said.

The monk’s name would show up on her phone when he called. When she left on the morning of May 9, she dropped off their saleng vehicle with a relative at a local market and he has n’t seen her since.

” The night before she left, I took my wife into my arms and told her that I loved her. I asked if she loved the monk. She denied it, as she said he already had a wife,” he added.

Talking to reporters on May 21, he said his wife had called their daughter a few days before to say she wanted to be with the former monk.

However, his wife’s elder sister, who denied Nanthawan had strayed, told him his wife had found a job on a building site in another province and would return.

” When I called her back she said my wife in fact would not be coming back as she was upset I had gone to the media,” he said.

” You told them the story that she had run off with the monk, harming her reputation,” the sister complained. The saga continues.

Pichet holds a gun as he confronts his girlfriend outside her room.

‘ Friends’ cross the line

A teen in Samut Prakan shot an older acquaintance after catching him getting too close to his girlfriend.

Bang Phli police found the body of Pongsakorn Chuenmee, 22, on the bed of a rented place which he shared with a bunch of youngsters, including the killer’s girlfriend.

They found four shells from a. 38 nearby and the room festooned with drug taking gear, including syringes. Pongsakorn was shot four times including once in the eye and the neck.

The killer, Pichet, or Arm ( no surname given ), 18, took a motorcycle taxi to the police station to hand himself in following the shooting.

He said he burst into the room to find Pongsakorn and his girlfriend in each other’s arms. They were sleeping there along with four or five others.

He and Pongsakorn argued while the others, including his girlfriend, waited outside. When the sound of gunfire rang out, they ran for cover.

Arm, who shot the victim twice initially, followed his girlfriend outside and the pair argued.

Still unhappy, he went back inside and shot the victim another two times before leaving out the back and hailing the motorcycle taxi.

Arm said he and the victim would run into each other often. When he met his girlfriend, he introduced them, and before long suspected they were up to no good.

” I opened the door once and saw both in each other’s arms. Before the latest incident, I took a look at her phone and found a chat there which removed any doubt,” he told police.

He shot the victim with a gun which a trades student friend had left in the room with him.

His girlfriend, unnamed in news reports, said Arm misunderstood. She and the others including the victim lived together and were simply close friends, she said.

However, he was jealous and could not accept their friendship. Police charged him with premeditated murder.

Two brothers arrested for killing the undertaker.

Undertaker meets grim fate

Two brothers in Udon Thani were nabbed after stabbing to death the local undertaker for charging too much for a relative’s funeral.

Police in Kut Chap district found the body of Urai Khampeng, 65, undertaker at the village temple, lying in front of a grocery store.

He was killed in a fight, captured on CCTV, with brothers Yutthapong Chaiwan, 32, and Adisak Chaiwan, 30. They took off on a motorcycle, leaving their weapons behind.

Police found a fruit knife, sugar cane knife, and Sparta knife at the scene, though the Sparta knife may have belonged to the undertaker, who earlier used it to stab Mr Yutthapong in the hand when the row first erupted.

The brothers, who were drunk and had taken ya ba pills the night before the attack, accused the undertaker of over-charging for their grandfather’s funeral.

Police following up the attack found Mr Yutthapong in front of his house on a hammock, listening to music.

A machete and an axe were by his side.

Wary officers deployed a hook, forked stick and shield to nab him. However, he was in no fit state to resist.

” He said he did n’t know they had killed the victim,” one officer said later. The victim and his two attackers were relatives but it made no difference.

Officers searched for his brother Adisak for an hour, without success, so asked his relatives to bring him in.

Both suspects, who tested positive for drugs, were still groggy and hallucinating.

” They said they took three ya ba pills the day before, and drank lao khao ( a fiery Thai spirit ).

So fortified, they decided to go and seek vengeance for the stabbing,” police said. The brothers were charged with premeditated murder and taking drugs.

Nopparat gives a wai before robbing the gold shop.

A ‘wai’ for your gold

A gold shop robber in Samut Sakhon distinguished himself with his good manners when robbing a store, but nonetheless brought two guns.

Nopparat” Mo” Rompho, 22 robbed the Hang Thong Yaowarat Krungthep goldstore at Big C Mahachai 2 in Muang district on May 17. He took five necklaces each worth three baht weight in gold.

The young man fled on a motorcycle but police tracked him down three days later to a hideaway in Muang district.

CCTV images show the man was unusually polite. Walking in on the day of the robbery, wearing a crash helmet and the green livery of a delivery man to help disguise his identity, Mr Nopparat gave staff a wai and said,” Please give me permission to rob you. “

That was an unusual opening line, and must have taken staff by surprise. One woman behind the counter, in fact, appears to be smiling.

It was to be followed by:” Please grab your necklaces, and put them in the bag if you do n’t want to get shot. ” Mr Nopparat lifted his shift to reveal two guns on his waist. ” And please do it quickly, too,” he added.

Mr Nopparat said he stole the gold to ask for a girl’s hand in marriage. He knew he would need money for a dowry and hoped the robbery would help pay for it.

He wore a rider’s uniform as he used to work as a rider, though had since quit. As for the guns, they belonged to his Dad.

Asked why he asked staff for permission to rob the place, he said his good manners came naturally because his parents taught him to be polite. ” They taught me well, but did n’t finish the job as I ended up a robber,” he said.

Police charged him. It was unclear how much of the gold they were able to recover.

Continue Reading

Decommissioning the trusty F-4, Koreans pay tribute – Asia Times

The F-4 ( also known as Phantom II ) fighters, which have dedicated themselves unwaveringly to protecting the skies of the Republic of Korea for 55 years, are about to have their fuel flow stopped, putting an end to the jets ‘ fierce deterrent mission on the Korean Peninsula.

After the Korean War, it’s worthwhile to examine why the ROK and the ROK-US alliance rely on the F-4 to fend off the threat from the northern Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ( DPRK) and how the plane met their expectations. South Koreans owe this plane a sizable debt of safety.

The F- 4 was designed to match a variety of administrative needs. The F- 4 was one of the few fighter planes used by the US Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. It was built by McDonnell Douglas ( much since merged with Boeing ).

Also, the F- 4 was a device of military politics for the United States. It was supplied to important US friends, including the ROK, the UK, Australia, Israel, and Japan, as well as to Iran, Egypt, and Turkey. Of the 12 countries that operated the Phantom, just Turkey, Greece and Iran continue to do so.

The 1968 determination to get

The ROK’s air power, in contrast to the DPRK, was significantly lower after the Korean War ended. South Korea just had a dozen F- 86 Battle and F- 5As in its air force prior to purchasing the F-4. The North had more than half as many soldiers, better MiGs, with nicely- concealed operating bases. The DPRKcould build up to 150 plane within 5- to- 15 days.

The process of acquiring the F- 4 was hardly straightforward. Chang Ji- ryang, the ROK Air Force Chief of Staff, suggested the acquisition of the F-4 in the” Five- Time Heat Force Enhancement Plan” in 1966 to stable weather supremacy over the DPRK. The partnership between Prime Minister Chung Il- kung and US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara the following month led to a review of F- 4 products.

Convincing the US to create this innovative weapons, a move extraordinary in Northeast Asia at the time, was challenging. The ROK, which had next- and third-generation fighters like the F-105, bought the most recent third-generation fighter, which raised questions for the US about the impact on regional proper balance.

With the capture of the USS Pueblo and the Blue House attack by the DPRK soldiers, a strategic shift took place in first 1968, which heightened hostilities on the island. President Park Chung-hee requested substantial military aid from the US. He pressed on the US to fulfill his expectations, including removing North Korean soldiers from Vietnam. Later, the US promised to provide the F- 4. At the ROK-US conference in Honolulu on April 18, 1968, an agreement was reached to provide 34 F- 4 fighters by the end of the year following the visit of Special Envoy Cyrus Vance.

The age of F- 4 Phantom II

At that time, to successfully run South Korea’s “only” corporate asset, the F- 4, the ROK Air Force set a goal to finish F- 4operational readiness by the later 1970s. They sent 112 workers, including pilots, maintenance, and weapons experts, to the United States to prepare for separate function. On August 29, 1969, the 151st Fighter Squadron ( F- 4 Phantom II Squadron ) was established as they flew the aircraft directly across the Pacific to Daegu Air Base.

Following the fall of South Vietnam in 1974 and the reduction of US forces in Korea under the Nixon Doctrine, a national defense fund- raising campaign was launched, and a substantial sum of$ 33.6 million ( 16.3 billion won ) was raised in a short period. Five additional F- 4 Phantoms, which were named the” Pilseung Squad,” were purchased by the ROK government for$ 3.4 million ( 6.5 billion won ) in 1975.

Eighty more F- 4Ds were acquired. Starting in 1976, The ROK began introducing F- 4E fighters. All told, the ROK Air Force set up a total of 92 F- 4D units, 27 RF- 4C reconnaissance units and 103 F- 4E units.

The core of air superiority on the peninsula

The Phantom’s ability to defeat the DPRK’s main adversary, the MiG-21, was crucial. The Phantom, which defeated the MiG-21, was known as the” MiG Killer” due to its favorable kill ratio during the Vietnam War. Due to several factors, its presence limited North Korean air tactics and gave the US and ROK a lead over the peninsula:

    All- weather air operations: The Phantom performed all air- to- air missions such as DCA ( defensive dounter air ), ESCORT and air- to- ground missions such as AI (air interdiction ) and CAS ( close air support ). It had a back seat for a weapons systems officer, giving it more room for maneuvering during mission planning than previous fighters. It later evolved into a versatile all-weather aircraft with high-performance radar and navigation systems, and carried out air-to-air and air-to-ground missions until the KF-16 was fully operational in 1994.

  • Powerful armament: In an era when the magnitude of firepower was considered crucial for strategic attacks, the Phantom’s 15, 000- pound ( 6.8- ton ) payload capacity was overwhelming. Prior to the development of the long-range air-to-ground guided missile SLAM ER with the F-15K, the Phantom’s Popeye missile was the only weapon capable of bombing Pyongyang. The Popeye had more destructive power than the 230kg SLAM-ER missile, and it had a warhead that could penetrate 2 meters of concrete.
  • Strategic retaliationcapability: When the scramble siren sounded, the Phantom could be armed with a Popeye missile and accurately hit targets 112km away with a margin of error within a meter within 30 minutes. The Phantom became a crucial strategic asset for decades-long direct retaliation against provocations from North Korea. The ROK even organized a “ready to- kill” unit with F-4E fighters to retaliate against North Korea following the 1983 terrorist attack in Myanmar Aung San, underscoring the Phantom’s strategic value and operational readiness.
  • The Phantom, a platform and a significant illustration of how the ROK- US alliance overcame the difficulties of autonomy and security, was not just a platform but also a significant example of how the ROK- US alliance overcame these difficulties. It enabled the ROK military, which had no military power after the Korean War, to gain independent capabilities. It represented the US alliance’s early trust and continued improvement. By conducting air operations jointly in the Korean theater, the ROK and US forces improved operational interoperability, contributing to strategic deterrence and defense through the strong bond of the ROK-US alliance.

The “immortal Phantom”

On June 7, the Phantom will make its final flight, concluding over five decades of service. The lessons learned from operating the Phantom serve as reminders of the value of strategic considerations when making military acquisitions. The Phantom’s legacy and symbolism will endure, continuing to safeguard the ROK as an immortal guardian.

Jinki Lee, PhD, is an officer for US Policy Planning at the US Ministry of National Defense and a fighter pilot for the ROK Air Force. Hanbyeol Sohn, PhD, is an associate professor at the Korea National Defense University (KNDU).

The F-4 ( also known as Phantom II ) fighters, which have dedicated themselves unwaveringly to protecting the skies of the Republic of Korea for 55 years, are about to have their fuel flow stopped, putting an end to the jets ‘ fierce deterrent mission on the Korean Peninsula.

After the Korean War, it’s worthwhile to examine why the ROK and the ROK-US alliance rely on the F-4 to fend off the threat from the northern Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ( DPRK) and how the plane met their expectations. South Koreans owe this plane a sizable debt of safety.

The F- 4 was designed to match a variety of administrative needs. The F- 4 was one of the few fighter planes used by the US Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps. It was built by McDonnell Douglas ( much since merged with Boeing ).

Also, the F- 4 was a device of military politics for the United States. It was supplied to important US friends, including the ROK, the UK, Australia, Israel, and Japan, as well as to Iran, Egypt, and Turkey. Of the 12 countries that operated the Phantom, just Turkey, Greece and Iran continue to do so.

The 1968 determination to get

The ROK’s air force, in contrast to the DPRK, was significantly lower after the Korean War ended. South Korea only had a few F- 86 Sabres and F- 5As in its air force prior to purchasing the F-4. The North had more than twice as many fighters, superior MiGs, with well- concealed operational bases. The DPRK could deploy up to 150 aircraft within 5- to- 15 minutes.

The process of acquiring the F- 4 was hardly straightforward. Chang Ji- ryang, the ROK Air Force Chief of Staff, suggested the acquisition of the F-4 in the” Five- Time Heat Force Enhancement Plan” in 1966 to stable weather supremacy over the DPRK. The partnership between Prime Minister Chung Il- kung and US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara the following month led to a review of F- 4 products.

Convincing the US to create this innovative weapons, a move extraordinary in Northeast Asia at the time, was challenging. The ROK, which had next- and third-generation fighters like the F-105, bought the most recent third-generation fighter, which raised questions for the US about the impact on regional proper balance.

With the capture of the USS Pueblo and the Blue House attack by the DPRK soldiers, a strategic shift took place in first 1968, which heightened hostilities on the island. President Park Chung-hee requested substantial military aid from the US. He pressed on the US to fulfill his expectations, including removing North Korean soldiers from Vietnam. Later, the US promised to provide the F- 4. At the ROK-US conference in Honolulu on April 18, 1968, an agreement was reached to provide 34 F- 4 fighters by the end of the year following the visit of Special Envoy Cyrus Vance.

The age of F- 4 Phantom II

At that time, to successfully run South Korea’s “only” corporate asset, the F- 4, the ROK Air Force set a goal to finish F- 4operational readiness by the later 1970s. They sent 112 workers, including pilots, maintenance, and weapons experts, to the United States to prepare for separate function. On August 29, 1969, the 151st Fighter Squadron ( F- 4 Phantom II Squadron ) was established as they flew the aircraft directly across the Pacific to Daegu Air Base.

Following the fall of South Vietnam in 1974 and the reduction of US forces in Korea under the Nixon Doctrine, a national defense fund- raising campaign was launched, and a substantial sum of$ 33.6 million ( 16.3 billion won ) was raised in a short period. Five additional F- 4 Phantoms, which were named the” Pilseung Squad,” were purchased by the ROK government for$ 3.4 million ( 6.5 billion won ) in 1975.

Eighty more F- 4Ds were acquired. Starting in 1976, The ROK began introducing F- 4E fighters. All told, the ROK Air Force set up a total of 92 F- 4D units, 27 RF- 4C reconnaissance units and 103 F- 4E units.

The core of air superiority on the peninsula

The Phantom’s ability to defeat the DPRK’s main adversary, the MiG-21, was crucial. The Phantom, which defeated the MiG-21, was known as the” MiG Killer” due to its favorable kill ratio during the Vietnam War. Due to several factors, its presence limited North Korean air tactics and gave the US and ROK a lead over the peninsula:

    All- weather air operations: The Phantom performed all air- to- air missions such as DCA ( defensive dounter air ), ESCORT and air- to- ground missions such as AI (air interdiction ) and CAS ( close air support ). It had a back seat for a weapons systems officer, giving it more room for maneuvering during mission planning than previous fighters. It later evolved into a versatile all-weather aircraft with high-performance radar and navigation systems, and carried out air-to-air and air-to-ground missions until the KF-16 was fully operational in 1994.

  • Powerful armament: In an era when the magnitude of firepower was considered crucial for strategic attacks, the Phantom’s 15, 000- pound ( 6.8- ton ) payload capacity was overwhelming. Prior to the development of the long-range air-to-ground guided missile SLAM ER with the F-15K, the Phantom’s Popeye missile was the only weapon capable of bombing Pyongyang. The Popeye had more destructive power than the 230kg SLAM-ER missile, and it had a warhead that could penetrate 2 meters of concrete.
  • Strategic retaliationcapability: When the scramble siren sounded, the Phantom could be armed with a Popeye missile and accurately hit targets 112km away with a margin of error within a meter within 30 minutes. The Phantom became a crucial strategic asset for decades-long direct retaliation against provocations from North Korea. The ROK even organized a “ready to- kill” unit with F-4E fighters to retaliate against North Korea following the 1983 terrorist attack in Myanmar Aung San, underscoring the Phantom’s strategic value and operational readiness.
  • The Phantom, a platform and a significant illustration of how the ROK- US alliance overcame the difficulties of autonomy and security, was not just a platform but also a significant example of how the ROK- US alliance overcame these difficulties. It enabled the ROK military, which had no military power after the Korean War, to gain independent capabilities. It represented the US alliance’s early trust and continued improvement. By conducting air operations jointly in the Korean theater, the ROK and US forces improved operational interoperability, contributing to strategic deterrence and defense through the strong bond of the ROK-US alliance.

The “immortal Phantom”

On June 7, decommissioning day, the Phantom will make its final flight, concluding over five decades of service. The lessons learned from operating the Phantom serve as reminders of the value of strategic considerations when making military acquisitions. The Phantom’s legacy and symbolism will endure, continuing to safeguard the ROK as an immortal guardian.

Jinki Lee, PhD, is an officer for US Policy Planning at the US Ministry of National Defense and a fighter pilot for the ROK Air Force. Hanbyeol Sohn, PhD, is an associate professor at the Korea National Defense University (KNDU).

Continue Reading

Political backlash or lack of cash? Delicate balance confronting Malaysia PM Anwar in cutting diesel subsidies

MANAGEMENTAL Goes

Social observers have suggested that the government had considered using caution when implementing the subsidy cuts because it might lose help from the general public.

Shahril Hamdan, the former information head of the United Malays National Organization ( UMNO ), claimed Mr. Anwar’s cautious speech sounded like a budget speech.

He said in an interview with his Keluar Sekejap podcast on Wednesday ( May 22 ),” I’m not sure if there was anything really new besides some details about targeted subsidies.”

His co-host, former health minister Khairy Jamaluddin, claimed that Mr. Anwar had attempted to create a narrative that the reform of the subsidies system would take place immediately. &nbsp,

He said,” It was to soften the ground and get people ready that this was going to happen,” adding that it was a fair address. &nbsp, &nbsp,

But, Mr. Anwar did not specify when the diesel subsidy rationalization may be implemented, but he claimed that the government would grant oil subsidies to businesses that use a few professional diesel vehicles to prevent a significant price increase.
  
Buses and cars are two examples of the 10 different types of public transportation vehicles and the 23 different types of goods travel cars under the Subsidized Diesel Control System. &nbsp,

Additionally, Mr. Anwar added that cash donations would be distributed to entitled personal diesel vehicle owners. &nbsp,

He added that some people may question the cohesion government’s decision to start a “brave” target for diesel subsidies.

Now, gasoline is sold at a price of RM2.15 per gallon. RON 95 diesel, one of the most common petrol sorts in Malaysia, however is sold for RM2.05 per gallon. &nbsp,

Energy costs in Malaysia are among the lowest in the world. &nbsp,

Anwar added that cover subsidies in Malaysia were required to end, citing their status as one of the highest in the world. &nbsp,

” What for? The ultra-rich benefit more from cover grants because they consume or spend more money on goods and services. 3.5 million immigrants also benefit from … subsidies”, he had said in the same statement. &nbsp,

According to Mr. Anwar, those who really needed the support would receive the profits from providing cover subsidies. &nbsp, &nbsp,

In the past, there have been cover subsidies for grain, cooking petrol, and power. &nbsp,

However, the government has recently made an effort to reduce incentives, with the state ending subsidies and cost controls for poultry and those who use more than 600kWh of power since last year.

In his address, Mr. Anwar also touched on fraud and the country’s fragile governmental situation, with the need to boost both tax profits and reduce incentives. &nbsp, &nbsp,

According to Mr. Anwar, the government’s debt amounted to RM1.2 trillion, or 64.3 % of GDP, and, if other liabilities were taken into account, it would amount to RM1.5 trillion, or more than 80 % of it.

” This… loan is a waste of the person’s income because a lot of it is used to pay attention. This year, every one ringgit we collect in tax, 16 cents is used to pay interest: we have n’t even spoken about the principal”, he said during his May 22 address.

Opposition leader Hamzah Zainudin claimed that Anwar’s speech, which cut fuel subsidies, may have caused inflation in the country as people would be burdened by the skyrocketing cost of living, had caused uneasiness among the electorate.

He claimed that the discussion was about when the fuel payment rationalization may take effect and what was the president’s strategy for distributing aid to people.

” The people want to know when gasoline prices will increase,” the statement read. How do they submit an assist application? This was not clearly stated. He stated in a speech on May 22 that the state is still implementing the concept of announcing first and thinking afterwards.

The launch date springs on what functions are in place to ensure a easy execution, say experts. &nbsp,

Datuk Armizan Mohd Ali, the minister of local business and cost of living, stated on May 23 that discussions were ongoing regarding how the fuel program may be implemented, and especially how aid may be distributed to targeted groups.

We wo n’t set a date as long as the Cabinet is unhappy with the system, especially with regard to how target groups will be given the aid. An announcement will be made on the start time once the state has finalized this aspect, he was quoted as saying by The Star.

Continue Reading

Asia starting to feel like 1997-98 all over again – Asia Times

TOKYO – Last month, previous US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers drew smiles when he said the Federal Reserve’s following actions might be to strengthen, no comfortable, interest rates. Some relationship traders are now laughing.

The likelihood that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s staff will immediately start raising borrowing costs is still undetermined. However, almost universally accepted in Asia was the prediction that the US central banks had ease between five and seven days this month.

Given that US prices is stubbornly high, these bets are going wrong. It rose at a 3.4 % rate in April year on year. Though far below the 9.1 % peak in mid- 2022, inflation is still too far away from the Fed’s 2 % target for comfort.

David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, stated this week that he doubts the Fed’s plans to cut interest costs in 2024. ” I still do n’t see the data that’s compelling to see we’re going to cut rates here”, he said at a Boston College event.

At the same time, Solomon noted, consistently high inflation is squeezing American homes. He cited recent revenue shortfalls at businesses like McDonald’s Corp. and AutoZone Inc. to support the claim that high costs are hurting usage.

According to Solomon,” If you’re talking to CEOs who are running businesses that actually deal with what I’ll visit the middle of the American market, those businesses have been starting to see change in consumer activities.” ” Inflation is not just minimum. It’s combined, and so everything is more pricey. You’re starting to see the customer, the average American, feel this”.

The Fed, though, wo n’t see these dynamics as a reason to slash borrowing costs significantly, at least not this year. As oil prices rise amid growing unrest in the Middle East, stagnation poses a serious hazard. The risk rises if the US Congress does n’t act boldly to increase productivity and competitiveness.

As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon tells the Wall Street Journal, America “looks more like the 1970s than we’ve seen previously. Things appeared quite red in 1972. They were no red in 1973”.

All this is quickly changing the math for Asiatic politicians.

Nomura Holdings economics write in a word that” we believe that the table to cut costs and the risk of a prolonged easing period have increased in Asia.” Eastern central banks will want to sustain some relative interest-rate difference in the wake of the repeal of the Fed price cuts and the strengthening US dollar landscape, because otherwise they run the risk of weaker currencies and higher imported inflation.

Nobel prize Paul Krugman is as perplexed as someone to predict the future of US provides. ” On interest charges, I am&nbsp, avidly confused”, Krugman tells Bloomberg. Someone who claims to know for certain what the answer to that is deceiving themselves.

The same holds true for the dollar’s path, which Asia predicted would decline in 2024. As Powell extends the “higher for more” time for provides, money continues to move toward the US. This dynamic is robing Asian&nbsp economies of the money needed to support friendship and share markets.

Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Al Drago

As owners “focus on the equivalent level of interest costs,” HSBC experts write,” Lower-yielding Asian economies are bearing the brunt of the repricing of]US financial plan.”

Last month, Indonesia’s central bank announced a surprise 25 schedule- place rate hike to help a sliding rupiah, raising the standard rate to 6.25 %.

According to Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo,” This interest rate increase is meant to protect the stability of the rupee from the effects of worsening global risks.”

Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit recently hit&nbsp, 26- years lows, returning to levels not seen since Asia’s 1997- 98 financial crisis. Policymakers in Manila and Bangkok are considering how to lower rates, fearing that the Philippine peso and Thai baht could fall, increasing the risk of capital flight.

Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong in Seoul, another country that has been severely affected by the previous Asian financial crisis, warns against excessive won moves and is prepared to “deploy stabilizing measures.”

As more and more traders accept the notion that the Fed is maintaining interest rates steady, the US dollar may continue to rise.

” Policy divergence would likely keep the dollar stronger for longer,” says Kamakshya Trivedi, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, if the Fed continues to hold steady but more jurisdictions choose to go with domestic easing than to wait on the US central bank.

Trivedi notes that central banks in the UK, the Euro area, and Canada are likely to reduce rates starting in May. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, signaled that a cut is likely as consumer-price pressures subside.

That’s likely to extend gains in the dollar, which has risen markedly in all of the 10 biggest industrialized nations. So far this year, it’s already up 11 % against the Japanese yen and 2 % against the euro.

Krugman is in great company as he considers the direction the Fed rates will take. Fed officials also appear to be everywhere when it comes to whether rate cuts might occur this year.

For instance, Fed Governor Christopher Waller claims that a rate cut could be made for the time being until the end of 2024 if US data softens over the next three to five months.

According to Waller,” the economy now seems to be progressing more slowly than the Committee anticipated.” I need to see several more months of reliable inflation data before I can confidently support an easing in the stance of monetary policy, even if the labor market is not significantly weakening.

Waller is optimistic that the trend toward 2 % inflation is back on track based on recent consumer price trends. The Fed, he adds, can “probably” rule out hiking rates. However, Waller acknowledges that some senior Fed officials are more willing to repress the economy if necessary.

Asia will undoubtedly stay on the edge as a result. Policymakers have watched Fed policy decisions closely to limit the extent of currency volatility, Trivedi notes, “where macro and potential policy divergence has been more obvious.”

Yet the Fed’s decision to hold rates higher than Asia initially anticipated on January 1 is a significant blow to a region that is at the forefront of Fed policy decisions far and away.

Case in point: People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng, who’s been hinting at rate cuts in recent months. Despite a deepening property crisis, despite a gross domestic product increase of 5.3 % in the first three months of 2024, household confidence and retail sales are still weak.

However, Beijing’s economic conditions may influence the PBOC’s ability to cut rates more than what Fed officials do in Washington. An extension of the “higher for longer” yield era will make it harder to cut rates without the dollar losing significantly as Pan’s team appears to understand better than some peers.

The PBOC is reluctant to let the yuan weaken significantly, which is why there are many reasons.

China does n’t want the yuan to significantly depreciate. Image: Twitter

One, it might increase the risk of default for property development companies as a result of it making it harder for property development companies to keep up with offshore bond payments. To increase global confidence in the yuan, it could waste progress made under Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s watch. Three, it could make China an even bigger US election flashpoint in the lead- up to November 5 elections, if that’s possible.

In the interim, Xi is intensifying state-led efforts to increase the number of unsold homes in order to stabilize the property sector.

” The new property measures are unlikely to deal with&nbsp, the full overhang of unsold homes given the PBOC’s&nbsp, new facility’s initial size”, says economist Mansoor Mohi- uddin at Bank of Singapore. ” But the aid is likely to be&nbsp, scaled up if it proves successful”.

According to analysts at UBS Global Wealth Management,” securing adequate funding remains a crucial question, and it is unclear if this will be sufficient to restore consumer confidence and entice buyers back into the market.”

The PBOC may be under pressure to add massive waves of fresh liquidity as Xi’s government fine-tunes its property rescue plan. However, governments like China are also obligated to make more aggressive efforts to rewire growth engines.

The Asia region is still too focused on exports and the dollar for comfort. Even though formal currency pegs are no longer applicable, export-dependent Asia still relies on the dollar’s exchange rate. Here, foreign exchange trends from Seoul to Jakarta smack of déjà vu for many global investors.

A top cause of Asia’s 1997- 98 crisis was a runaway dollar pulling in huge waves of capital from all directions. This dynamic is wreaking new havoc as the world’s largest economy defies recession forecasts year after year in 2024.

The Fed’s reluctance to ease, meanwhile, is increasing the gap in interest rate differentials, causing new strains on Asian central banks. It is making local debt markets more difficult to control thanks to emerging market monetary authorities.

Among the biggest wildcards: how a US national debt approaching$ 35 trillion collides with toxic electoral politics in Washington.

The extreme political polarization that is putting Washington’s credit rating in jeopardizes some of this risk. Last August, when Fitch Ratings yanked away America’s AAA credit score, it cited the polarization behind the January 6, 2021 insurrection among the reasons.

Similar to how President Joe Biden’s Democrats and Republicans who are Donald Trump’s supporters play games with the US debt ceiling. Such bickering might worry Asia less if not for the fact Washington’s debt is&nbsp, twice the size&nbsp, of China’s annual GDP and more than eight times Japan’s.

Another concern is Washington’s sharp mercantilist pivot since 2017. Then, President Trump imposed severe tariffs on global steel and aluminum as well as Chinese goods. When Biden arrived, he left Trump’s trade war in place— and added new layers of China- targeted curbs.

Now, as Trump threatens 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods, Biden is trying to out- Trump” The Donald” with a 100 % tax on China- made electric&nbsp, vehicles. Xi’s government is threatening retaliation with this trade-tax arms race, which includes tariffs as high as 25 % on imported cars.

Might this tariff one- upmanship further dent faith in US Treasury securities, of which Beijing holds$ 768 billion? Or cause more harm to the US economy than China’s?

Both candidates for president want to impose higher tariffs on China’s goods. Image: X Screengrab

” These&nbsp, policies are more likely to hurt than help the lower- and middle- income Americans they purport to benefit”, says economist Kimberly Clausing at the Peterson Institute.

Adds Ryan Sweet, an economist at Oxford Economics:” Most economists view tariffs as a bad idea because they prevent a country from reaping the benefits of specialization, disrupt the movement of goods and services, and lead to a misallocation of resources. Tariffs are frequently implemented, and consumers and producers frequently pay higher prices.

That might result in a lower US demand for Asian goods. Asia also worries about a blunder committed by the Fed. The Fed’s misreading of the intense tensions in credit markets in 2007 only exacerbated the carnage, despite not being the catalyst for the Lehman Brothers crisis. It was too late for Fed rate cuts to contain the financial chaos by the time debt markets were soaring.

Many economists questioned whether more medium-sized lenders might be facing Silicon Valley Bank-like reckonings in recent months as the Fed slowed-walked rate cuts.

Similar concerns are growing about a more severe crisis in commercial real estate, which is a post-pandemic crisis. Joel Pruis, senior director at Cornerstone Advisors, calls it a “perfect storm” of high interest rates amid an “over- concentration” of lending in commercial office space.

Any resulting market chaos will put Asia’s open, trade- reliant economies in harm’s way. And in ways few in the region ever saw coming, never mind the Summers ‘ and Krugman’s of the world.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

Analysts: China’s property stock surge unsustainable – Asia Times

The long-awaited rally of Chinese property shares this month has sparked cheers from stock investors, but analysts warn that the upsurge wo n’t be sustained over the medium term. &nbsp,

Reason: The People’s Bank of China ( PBoC )’s ( PBoC ) proposed home purchase scheme is too small and wo n’t be able to reverse the market’s declining trend.

Analysts predict that property developers ‘ profitability wo n’t improve over the next six months, and that their shares will once again be under pressure. They claim to be bullish on other stocks because the Chinese economy’s weak domestic consumption continues to be the biggest issue.

Asia Times interviewed Arthur Budaghyan, key emerging markets and China planner of BCA Research, a Canada- based funding research organization, to find his take.

” Four to six months from today, Chinese home companies will probably be lower than yesterday’s level”, Budaghyan said. ” Over the medium term, elements will prevail, but in the short term, stock areas can be unreasonably driven by some false beliefs,” the statement goes.

He claimed that the Chinese government has been working to stimulate the economy and property markets for two and a half decades, but the work has failed. For example, he said, the government decided in late 2022 to provide 1.88 trillion yuan ( US$ 259 billion ) funding to property developers to complete unfinished apartments but the move failed to boost property prices and sales.

He claimed that the funding for local governments ‘ purchases of unsold houses from the industry is very little in comparison to property developers ‘ total profits in 2023.

Exceptional housing stock&nbsp,

In a bid to lower property inventory in the market, the PBoC announced on May 17 that it would establish a global program to launch a low-cost 300 billion yuan funding program.

The central bank will provide loans to national banks to protect 60 % of the scheme’s borrowing, which means that the banks will have to provide SOEs with another 200 billion yuan, increasing the total to 500 billion renminbi.

However, the number is just equivalent to 4.3 % of China’s home selling number, which was about 11.66 trillion yuan in 2023.

Does the new cash bring the housing market back to its former glory days? Almost certainly not”, Harry Murphy Cruise, an analyst at Moody’s Analytics, says in a study word. Given the size of empty stock, the 300 billion yuan money is a drop in the ocean.

According to estimates, the value of China’s remarkable housing stock has increased by more than 7.5 trillion renminbi since 2018. He claimed that only 4 % of that is funded by the new package.

He continued, saying that Chinese officials appear to have only attempted to decrease the property firm’s decline and bide until it finds a floor naturally rather than attempt to return to its former glory days.

This month, the stocks of many Chinese property developers have already more than doubled. On Wednesday, Shimao Group rose 5 % while China Vanke increased 4 %. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Low fertility level

Beijing, according to experts, wants to regulate the housing markets while avoiding rising house prices, which would lessen the desire of young couples to have children. &nbsp,

In January, the NBS said China’s populace amounted to 1.409 billion at the end of last year, down 2.08 million people from a month earlier.

That was the second time in a column for China to recorded recession in people, after the number dropped by 850, 000 in 2022 from 2021. &nbsp,

” China’s fertility rate is one of the lowest in the world, also lower than that of Japan and Italy”, Budaghyan told Asia Times. ” Young folks say properties are very expensive. The statistical situation will get worse if the government increases home charges right away.

He claimed that the Chinese government wants to lower home costs so that couples can afford to purchase a more luxurious room and have one or two kids. &nbsp,

” The Taiwanese government has a much longer time perception and wants to target on&nbsp, populations, rather of boosting home prices. That’s why it has not been very violent in rousing rates”, he said.

Some home experts believe that it’s possible to quickly raise property prices by removing home purchase restrictions in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, but it’s unlikely that the main government will do it.

Debate settlement

Former Hong Kong banker and academic Victor Ng Ming-tak claims on his YouTube channel that the government’s incentives wo n’t help increase the profitability of property developers. &nbsp,

He makes the observation that the PBoC’s residence purchase program appears to be a financial settlement plan intended to settle disputes between consumers and property developers. &nbsp,

” Three years ago, millions of people had threatened to stop paying their mortgages because apartment building designers lacked quality rooms. He claims Beijing agreed to give home developers loans to complete their projects. However, these homebuyers now object to receiving their homes because their price has fallen by 30 %.

He claims that these consumers can now be tenants of the properties under the house purchase program, avoiding a 30 % decrease in home value, while local governments will collect their revenues to pay off bank loans. &nbsp,

” For a deal does not help house developers to create income”, he says. Why are their stock then rising so quickly? He advises property investors to get ready to make the benefits in the current bear market at some point. &nbsp,

” We expect China’s latest assistance measures to help relieve some small- term pressures in the housing market, helping to clean the sector’s deleveraging and minimize structural risks”, Kelly Chen, a vice president and senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, says in a research note. A” significant and sustained progress in contracted sales for new properties” is unlikely to be sparked by looser loan regulations.

She claims that some local governments ‘ contingent liabilities will increase as a result of the home purchase program’s potential rise in debt for state-owned local governments as a result of its potential to raise debt to buy from property developers ‘ empty stock.

No plane money

In March, Budaghyan published a research report titled” No Game Changer” after the Chinese government announced a 5 % GDP growth target for 2024 during the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Without some significant impulses, he said, China will face a lot of difficulties in achieving its 5 % growth goal. &nbsp,

He claimed for the Asia Times that he still believes that due to a decrease in property sales earnings, the Chinese administration’s spendings in 2024 will fall short of the budgeted amount. &nbsp,

He claimed that it’s simple to use helicopter money to boost the economy, but he did n’t believe the Chinese government had that mindset. ” If things get really bad, it will do it”.

He added that Beijing also wants to avoid quantitative easing, which would put pressure on the Chinese currency. &nbsp,

Read: China unveils property stimuli amid falling sales

Follow Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

Continue Reading

PM warns of recession risk, seeks new ideas

Rettha calls for new regular meetings to come up with ideas for reviving the sluggish economy.

PM warns of recession risk, seeks new ideas
Srettha Thavisin, the prime minister, makes an official visit to Japan that may end on Friday at Haneda Airport in Tokyo on Wednesday. ( Photo: Thai Khu Fah Facebook )

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin stated on Wednesday that the market is at risk of a recession given the slow GDP growth, higher home debts, and burgeoning bad debts.

Mr. Srettha, who is currently traveling in Japan, announced he would lead an urgent meeting of the economy’s officials and other related bodies on Monday to come up with fresh ideas to revitalize the business.

He said the particular sessions will be held weekly for the near future, stressing the need to generate fresh ideas.

The National Economic and Social Development Council ( NESDC ) announced the move after the first three months of its report of economic growth of only 1.5 % year over year.

The state planning agency now anticipates a year-long increase in gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth of between 2 % and 3 %, which is slightly below its previous projection of 2.2 % to 3.2 %. Last year’s growth was 1.9 %.

The NESDC said the upgrade is a result of higher amounts of physical danger, particularly trade protectionionism, growing political conflicts, and increased volatility in the world economy.

Thailand’s growth in the first quarter was slower than that of six other Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( Asean ) members. The Philippines and Vietnam led the pack, at 5.7 % each, followed by Indonesia ( 5.1 % ), Malaysia ( 4.2 % ) and Singapore ( 2.7 % ), according to NESDC figures.

” GDP grew by just 1.5 %. Without the support and tourism industries as pads, we would now be at risk of a crisis”, said Mr Srettha. ” There is also credit card debt, bad debt and house debt]that needs to be addressed ]”.

When asked if the government was thinking about taking any quick-term measures to boost the economy, he replied,” That’s why the meeting of financial officials will be held. However, the meeting wo n’t present any unexpected project at this time.

” From now on, for meetings may be held every year. I want to hear ideas from anyone, including those working in foreign trade, agriculture, and law.

The discussions had been held regularly on Mondays, according to government official Chai Wacharonke.

According to the official, the president’s 500 billion-baht digital budget handout is one of the crucial steps to quickening the economy.

On Tuesday, the government approved a plan to increase the resources for the 2024 fiscal year, for 3.48 trillion ringgit, to help fund the plan.

Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira stated that the extra amount would be decided this month, but it should not reach the 122 billion ringgit that the Budget Bureau had previously indicated, which may raise the funds for 2024 to 3. 6 trillion baht.

Continue Reading

Lawyer Arm faces rape charges

Lawyer Arm faces rape charges
On Monday, authorities in Songkhla territory made the arrest. ( Police photo )

Phongsathon Suwannaraksa, a well-known attorney known for helping victims of physical abuse, has been detained for reportedly raping and blackmailing one of his own customers.

The 26-year-old assault victim is said to have experienced melancholy as a result of the alleged rape and attempted suicide by jumping off the board of HTMS Chakri Naruebet in Chon Buri on November 22, 2013, in an attempt to kill herself. She was soon rescued.

Mr Phongsathon, 34, better known as Lawyer Arm, was arrested by the Metropolitan Police Bureau ( MPB) police in Songkhla, his hometown, on Monday. He was charged with rape using power, which he denied, and insisted it was lawful sex. &nbsp,

” It was completely lawful. I will certainly get this case]countersuit]. If I lose, I will stop being a solicitor”, said the presume upon his arrest on Monday

He added that he has filed lawsuits against the person for trying to extort money from him and falsely reporting to the police against him.

The attorney has also submitted a petition to the National Anti-Corruption Commission against police officers at Don Muang police place who are looking into the murder case against him.

After surviving the suicide attempt from last year, the woman claimed to have been depressed and that she had told the MPB researchers that the prosecutor had threatened her.

She claimed to have met him in 2022 when she needed legal assistance in a lawsuit against a colleague who had refused to pay a 100, 000-baht loan. The attorney at the time ran for re-election on the Kla Party’s seat in Songkhla, but he lost.

The girl claims that the attorney raped her and invited her to what he claimed was a party organized by Kla in Bangkok. She claimed that after the tragedy, he began blackmailing her.

In the Bangkok district known as Don Muang, she afterwards made the decision to charge him with rape. The police authorities were subsequently sued by him, who later brought countersuits against her.

Continue Reading