Johor police station attack: Suspect’s neighbours say no inkling of his family’s suspected JI links

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Prof. Ramakrishna claimed that Indonesian security forces had long ago eradicated the more violent groups that had developed in the sailing school.

However, he said,” It seems feasible that a younger generation of violent parts from this area could be gradually reviving.” He noted that police were already monitoring them as a result of the inquiries of more than 20 well-known JI people in Johor.

However, security consultant Chasseur Group, founder of security firm Chasseur Group, Munira Mustaffa, cautioned against interpreting a single event as a representation of JI activities in the area.

” Now, JI’s primary atom in Indonesia remains weakened due to a lack of leadership and is generally decentralised”, she told CNA.

” This event is very possible to have been an isolated event. Until we understand his problems, desires for launching the assault, and priorities, we may say with certainty that there is a larger plot”.

Ms. Munira stressed that the criminal’s papa has so far been the only one who has forged a link to JI.

” The authorities are arresting persons with suspected references. It remains to be seen whether they actually are people, she continued.

” Until we know with certainty that this is the case, I am optimistic about any claims of an effective JI body in Johor.”

In the same vein, RSIS’s Prof. Ramakrishna emphasized that further investigations are required to determine how much a potential resurgence of aggressive militancy has spread among the “affiliated with the ancient Luqmanul Hakiem pesantren.”

” RUDIMENTARY” ATTACK

According to Prof. Ramakrishna, the manner in which the incident took place appeared to be “very rudimentary,” involving what appeared to be a hapless artist who wanted to steal a gun from the authorities.

According to Assistant Professor Ahmad El-Muhammady, an associate fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism ( ICCT), the suspect may have been inspired by previous terrorist attacks that have occurred in Indonesia.

For example, in December 2022, a gentleman blew himself up at a police station in Bandung, killing an officer and wounding 10 people. The attacker was associated with Jamaah Ansharut Daulah ( JAD), a member of the Islamic State terror group.

Asst. Prof. Ahmad said that the suspect may be brought on by external factors like the Gaza conflict and the perception of injustice in relation to Israeli issues.

” A former member of JI used to tell me: You can kill the organisation, but you ca n’t kill the ideology. Some individuals still maintain the ideology’s consistency, and it may be spreading it covertly, he said.

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Bangladesh: Where a US ambo can still captivate a nation – Asia Times

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I recently came across reports about the possible appointment of a fresh US ambassador to Bangladesh while scrolling through Twitter on a new morning. Peter Haas may also go down as the most influential US minister in Bangladesh’s new history, but David Meale appeared to be on the verge of taking over.

Actually for a brief moment, the idea of a foreign minister exerting major impact in a democratic country of 180 million might look strange. But Bangladesh’s history of political instability has created opportunities for additional actors to act, exercise their authority and form the country’s course in many ways.

I had a casual conversation with a reputed senior journalist who I viewed as a mentor, and this unpleasant reality first came to mind. Over tea and biscuits, he dropped a facts weapon:” Faisal”, he said, “remember, in Bangladesh, just three people truly hold influence: the Prime Minister, the Indian High Commissioner and the US Ambassador”.

Years later, as my monitoring expanded from focusing on business and equipment to focusing on the wider social scenery, I realized his words were deep wisdom. They were unquestionably accurate.

Consider the time leading up to Bangladesh’s January 2024 federal election. For more than a year, the US Ambassador’s every shift was monitored and scrutinized below by a captivated state. Has accurred to prominence in news stories, yet for seemingly unimportant things like a home excursion to neighboring India.

Ambassador Haas was elevated to a prophecy position on chat shows and YouTube programs run by expelled Bangladeshis and well-known experts. Individuals hoped he would intervene and stop Bangladesh from becoming an totalitarian state.

Under the Biden administration, the expectation was that he would somehow re-establish voting right and a functioning democratic system, enabling Bangladesh to experience real politics, something the US supports internationally.

Haas a family brand

Well, that assumption on Haas was n’t simply false. Following the US’s sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) and seven of its major former leaders only three months prior, he arrived in Bangladesh in March 2022.

A Bangladeshi military unit called RAB was accused of serious human rights violations, including judicial killings and disappearances involving political opponents of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has for the past ten and a half decades been in power in the South Asian country with an extraordinary iron grip.

Ambassador Haas had a huge success in Bangladesh since his appearance, giving prior consideration to meetings with human rights organizations and significant political parties. His numerous press appearances have been covered extensively in relation to the importance of completely, fair, and all-royal elections.

Some economists believed that his statements reflected a change in US plan. They saw it as a departure from examining Bangladesh only through the lens of India, as had been assumed for a while.

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party ( BNP ) gained new life as a result of the perceived support of the US. The group held significant rallies all over the country despite being plagued by various politically motivated legal cases brought against its users.

Regular Bangladeshis anticipated a better outcome in the future vote after going through two contested elections with restricted voting rights.

When the US made a fresh card plan for Bangladesh in late March of last year, the anticipation increased. According to that plan, the US would impede its visa applications for those found to be obstructing the election process. The news had a major influence on Bangladeshi world.

This is because Bangladeshis who are looking for education or employment opportunities have long sought out the US as their best place. It’s also broadly understood in Bangladesh that the US has considerable control over the government’s connections with other world powers, including the European Union, UK, Canada and Australia.

A restriction on US visa may also make it harder to obtain permits from these nations.

All kinds of rumors and rumors were fueled by the US card policy’s large nature. Popular due to a restricted local media environment, Bangladeshi protesters in exile published unfounded names of politicians allegedly targeted in untrue lists.

People are ruminating about potential US intervention in the long-running Awami League government in daily conversations and online.

With the new visa regulations, US Ambassador Haas has become a key figure in discussions about what the opposition parties have called “restoring democracy” in Bangladesh.

Seen as an embodiment of a potential US intervention, his popularity skyrocketed. Golam Maola Rony, the leader of the BNP, humorously described this situation as “god in the sky and Haas on earth” to protect them from oppression on a TV talk show.

The general public opinion of the US and Haas had grown to such a high level that when Israel began launching a disproportionate offensive against Palestinians in retaliation for Hamas ‘ attack, criticism of the US remained almost nonexistent, even among Islamic political parties.

This was unprecedented, as Bangladeshis were seen demonstrating against the US government in previous instances where anything happened in Palestine, knowing that Israel would be left in the middle of the Middle East without the US’s support.

Reality bites back

In mid- November, Bangladesh’s Election Commission declared the January 7 poll schedule. The BNP’s request that the election be held under a neutral caretaker government, a system that the country’s High Court had abolished, was not received.

In response, the party was adamant about avoiding the election based on its previous polls, where it won only seven out of 300 seats in a contest that was widely regarded as highly rigged. No free and fair poll could be conducted under a partisan government, it was certain.

As the BNP and its allies ‘ street protests grew more frequent throughout the nation, there was a period of unrest. Increased police response and legal proceedings followed these protests.

Coinciding with this political tension, the vital readymade garment ( RMG) sector, responsible for over 80 % of the country’s export earnings, was shaken by demonstrations demanding a minimum wage increase. Tragically, some workers lost their lives during these protests.

Adding to the anxieties, the US announced a new policy, the” Memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labour Standards Globally”. With this directive, the US was able to impose sanctions, trade restrictions, and visa restrictions on nations that violate labor rights. Many Bangladeshis saw this as a potential threat of broad economic sanctions aimed at the RMG sector.

During that tense period, US Ambassador Haas’s actions became a constant source of national attention. Every action taken by the US ambassador and embassy was subject to thorough analysis, which led to speculation and conflict of interest.

By spreading false information, social media and even major news outlets exacerbated the situation. The investigation soared to the point where some national newspapers turned the story into a speculative one about Ambassador Haas’s family’s trip to India before Christmas.

The outcome of the January 7 election was a foregone conclusion right away because the main opposition party had boycotted, but all political parties and regular people had high expectations for the US’s reactions.

Within a day of the results, the US publicly criticized the fairness of the election while being concerned about opposition members ‘ arrests. It also emphasized the US’s” commitment to continued partnership with Bangladesh.”

According to the US, this partnership aims to “promote a free and open Indo-Pacific region, support human rights and civil society in Bangladesh, and strengthen people-to-people and economic ties.”

Begrudging acceptance

The absence of a US or other international intervention was seen by Awami League politicians as a disapproving of the results of the election by the West. The opposition eventually grasped the same reality: there would n’t be a US- led push to remove the Awami League government.

Finally, most analysts and activists were forced to accept the new political environment in the old setting after months of online activism and commentary. Some political pundits and analysts, however, are still dissecting the US’s moves and trying to make a sense out of its Bangladesh policy.

Should it adopt a more lenient stance or adopt a tougher strategy to encourage democratic reforms? Will it completely abandon its values-based approach in favor of a purely interest-driven strategy, or will it make an effort to strike a balance between the two principles?

The common people’s intense interest in the US, its foreign policy toward Bangladesh, and more recently, the American ambassador have all waned. Ambassador Haas quickly became a focal point for hundreds of millions of Bangladeshis for a while, likely without realizing it.

Many people thought of him as the embodiment of the supposed values-based relationship between the US and Bangladesh. That will most likely have ended with his coming departure and the lack of US-motivated change.

Faisal Mahmud is a Dhaka- based journalist.

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Sasakawa keeping China-Japan military lines open – Asia Times

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This week, Chinese military officers are visiting their Japanese counterparts, raising hopes for more stable diplomatic relations or at least greater experience with how to deal with any unforeseen crises. What it probably wo n’t do, however, is make any fundamental change in their East Asia stand- off.

On May 14, a committee of 20 People’s Liberation Army ( Army ) senior officials arrived in Japan for six weeks of markets with Japan Self- Defence Forces rivals. It is the first PLA visit to Japan in four decades, thanks to the Sasakawa Peace Foundation.

The trip will stop at the Ministry of Defense in Tokyo, Komaki Air Base close to Nagoya, and Maizuru Naval Base in the Japan Sea, west of Kyoto. The more significant US bases at Yokosuka, on Okinawa and elsewhere in Japan are not on the PLA’s tour plan.

Chinese officers last traveled to China in July 2023, but Beijing’s subsequent set reciprocal visit to Japan was postponed because it was upset that Japan had decided to release waste from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean.

Water is stored at Fukkushima in three different ways. At the back of this photo, two different types of above-ground water tank can be seen, and the workers are employed in an underground store lake. Photo: Wikipedia

The Japan-China Field Officer Exchange Program was established in 2001 by the privately held Sasakawa Peace Foundation, a non-profit firm with a headquarters in Tokyo.

Reverse visits were originally intended to be conducted every year, but the two parties ‘ tumultuous feud over command of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands and subsequent controversy surrounding the Covid crisis ended everything.

However, 26 visits involving some 400 officials have taken place so far under the plan, with PLA representatives even paying calling on Japan’s Ground Self- Defense Force (army ), Chinese companies and actually farming villages.

In May 2023, amid tensions over the situation in the South China Sea and Taiwan, the foundation’s honorary chairman, Sasakawa Yohei, told The Diplomat that” At times like this, it is effective for the private sector to create a window for mutual understanding. It’s very important to hobnob together and have informal conversations. Even in the world, this military exchange is unique.

China’s Communist Party- run Global Times, known for its nationalistic stances, also favors the officer exchange program.

The China Institute of International Studies research fellow Xiang Haoyu, who believes that the resumption of bilateral military exchanges is a positive development that contributes to the rebuilding of trust, was quoted in an article published on May 14.

” China- Japan relations have started to bottom out and the beginnings of a gradual rebound,” according to the report from last year. While negative factors affecting bilateral relations, especially Japan’s dumping of nuclear- contaminated wastewater and some Japanese politicians ‘ hyping of]the ] Taiwan question, still exist, both sides have maintained some exchanges and gradually restored relations”, said Xiang. &nbsp,

That may be an optimistic or even opportunistic take on the actual situation, but it does offer some insight into China’s official position on the matter. The PLA officers ‘ visit received a scant amount of coverage in the Japanese press.

The Nippon Foundation and the Japanese motorboat racing organization were the foundations of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation in 1986. &nbsp,

The Nippon Foundation’s history dates back to 1951, when Sasakawa Ryoichi persuaded the Japanese Diet to pass the Motorboat Racing Law, which authorized gambling at motorboat races to raise money for projects like the rebuilding of Japan’s maritime industry.

Sasakawa Ryoichi, a well-known right-winger, was a major player who forged a name for himself in rice speculating, mining, and other endeavors. In the 1930s, he used his wealth to finance a private air squadron. In 1939, he and his squadron flew to Rome to meet Mussolini, whom he called a “perfect fascist”. He gave his aircraft and related equipment to the Japanese military in 1941.

Sasakawa became an independent candidate for free speech in the Diet in 1942. He spent much of the war years in Manchuria and China, where he is rumored to have started highly profitable smuggling operations many years ago. He gets nowhere with that idea.

Sasakawa allegedly pushed the American occupation authorities into detaining him after the war for “instigating aggression, nationalism, and hostility against the United States.” He was the author of a book defending their actions after three years spent with the leaders of wartime Japan, seven of whom were hanged.

He then turned to anti- communist political activity and philanthropy. He and Syngman Rhee, the Reverend Sun Myung Moon, the unification church’s founder, and Chiang Kai-shek, who were in good terms.

The Japan Shipbuilding Industry Foundation was established in 1962, and it was granted the legal authority to administer grants made from motorboat racing proceeds. Naturally, Roy Sasakawa assumed the role of chairman.

The Nippon Foundation was given its new name in 2011 after working with the UN on maritime law, contributing more than US$ 70 million to the WHO’s fight against leprosy, and funding other philanthropic initiatives.

Sasakawa Ryoichi passed away in 1995 at the age of 96. One of his three sons is Sasakawa Yohei. In 2011, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation was transformed into a public interest incorporated foundation, which is one type of Japanese non- profit organization.

In June 2023, Sasakawa Yohei ( C ) holds a press conference. Image: Facebook Screengrab

In addition to these four regionally focused funds, the Sasakawa Pacific Island Nations Fund, the Sasakawa Pan Asia Fund, the Sasakawa Middle East Islam Fund, and the Sasakawa Japan- China Friendship Fund, it contributes to international exchange and cooperation.

Through the joint disaster prevention, rural health activities, and the military field officer exchange program described above, the Japan- China Friendship Fund aims to promote peace and mutual development between Japan and China.

Sasakawa Ryoichi created the Sasakawa Japan- China Friendship Fund as a means of “promoting permanent peace and mutual understanding between China and Japan.” At present, it serves as a back channel to China at a time of escalating tensions.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Controversy erupts over India’s electoral bonds, opposition calls it ‘world’s biggest scam’

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Since its founding, CPIM has been one of the biggest reviewers of political bonds and has made it known that the party may not accept donations made through the system.

Additionally, it is one of the petition in the Supreme Court case that brought a case involving the constitutionality of democratic bonds.

Critics claim that the BJP has now gotten the rewards because political parties have now squandered the majority of the donations.

NO UNDUE ADVANTAGE IN POLLS: BJP

But, the BJP said that despite getting a lion’s share of the money, it does not give the group an unfair advantage in the current vote.

The Lok Sabha ( House of the People ) is the party with the most members of parliament. But the amount received by the BJP is less than 40 per cent”, said one of the group’s officials Nalin Kohli.

It is a tiny sum in comparison to political parties that have received significantly more money but have a much smaller social existence than our MPs, according to the amount or proportional to our MPs.

Given that ruling parties typically have influence, spectators claimed that the BJP’s gain of more funds is certainly unforeseen.

” I’m not surprised that ( BJP) got the majority of the share. In fact, I’m surprised they did n’t corner 90 per cent of funds. Ruling parties wherever have an benefit”, said SY Quraishi, a previous election director of India. &nbsp,

QUESTIONS ABOUT WHAT RETURNS DONORS GET

Not just the fact that Mr. Modi’s gathering benefits overwhelmingly from poll donations worries critics.

These discoveries have heightened concerns about a social party-to-corporate installation in a federal election.

At least 30 commercial sponsors donated to political events, according to studies, after federal authorities began looking into revenue and money laundering against them.

Another report revealed that 33 businesses donated securities worth more than their gains, with three-quarters of those gifts going to the BJP.

Many people are questioning the compensation companies have received as a result of the discovery.

” The people who donate are no saints. There is no free meal. They give because they have vested passions, and they expect a reward, according to Mr. Quraishi. &nbsp,

According to one American media outlet, businesses that make significant donations to the BJP were given significant state contracts.

” It is a means to extract cash from businesses. It provides businesses with a means of offering deals for cash. It is perhaps the country’s biggest bribery scam”, said Congress head Rahul Gandhi. &nbsp,

In a new interview, Mr. Modi defended the electoral bonds, saying that the system was a good way to combat “black money,” which refers to money obtained through illegal methods.

Nothing has been put in place to exchange political bonds as a source of political funding so much.

According to projections from the Center for Media Studies in New Delhi, which tracks social spending, parties likely spent a total of US$ 14.4 billion to entice voters this election.

Political observers claim that the political bonds scheme’s funding has generally been used to finance that expenditure in order to earn what is shaping up to be one of India’s most expensive polls always.

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US opens door for China advances in the Pacific – Asia Times

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China and the US are competing for wet real estate, underwater resources and military edge among the South Pacific’s secluded island nations, a powerhouse contest to gain influence over their economies, airstrips, seaports and security forces.

China is commonly perceived as expanding its Belt and Road system across the Pacific’s wet” Blue Continent” to finally reach North, Central, and South America plus Antarctica, all the while empowering Beijing’s military, businesses, global policies and politics.

China won a victory on May 2 when the strategically important Solomon Islands elected pro-Beijing Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, 55, a former foreign minister in the country’s once-friendly state of incoming prime minister Manasseh Sogavare.

Because the two nations had signed a diplomatic Solomon Islands Security Agreement in 2022, the US, Australia, New Zealand, and their allies were now concerned.

The China-Salomon Islands agreement, according to critics, might enable Beijing to establish a military base on the islands, which are 2, 000 kilometers east of Australia. According to China and the Solomon Islands, the agreement would certainly lead to the establishment of a Chinese military center on the country’s 900 smaller islands or its six main islands.

In the event of an armed conflict between the big forces, Manele, the next foreign secretary, told Parliament in 2022,” We are no stupid to ask for a military base, as we ourselves could be the goal of a military attack in the future.”

He said,” Having a stable Solomon Islands is also about ensuring stable and prosperous Pacific region.”

China trained the Solomon Islands ‘ police, provided water cannon vehicles and boosted their anti- riot tactics after unrest, some of it anti- Chinese, disrupted the islands.

Protests, riots, arson and looting erupted in 2021 after the Solomon Islands switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China in 2019 when Manele was foreign minister. Australia, under its joint security pact with the Solomon Islands, sent police to the islands ‘ capital Honiara to quash the civil unrest.

On November 26, 2021, as rioting broke out in Honiara’s Chinatown and thousands of people refused to comply with a government lockdown order, flames rose from buildings. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP via Getty Images / Charley Piringi

Manele was expected to maintain Solomon Islands ‘ friendly relations with China, which dramatically improved under the leadership of incoming prime minister Sogavare, who chose Manele as a candidate for prime minister. The Solomon Islands will be “friends to all, and enemies to none”, Manele said.

China’s recent construction of an airfield on Guadalcanal, the largest of the Solomon Islands, evoked chilling reminders of America’s World War II Battle of Guadalcanal to seize it from Japan.

Guadalcanal Island was the first major US military offensive to stop Japan from using the Solomons to bomb ships passing between the US and Australia in 1942.

Under intense enemy fire, US forces scurried west across the Pacific to defeat Japan after capturing control of the Solomon Islands and other island nations.

Today, many of the Solomon Islands ‘ 720, 000 citizens say they favor Manele not for his international stance, but in hopes his Ownership, Unity and Responsibility ( OUR) Party will upgrade the islands ‘ poor health care, transportation infrastructure, electricity supply, schools, employment opportunities, housing and other daily needs.

The Solomon Islands is one of the world’s poorest nations. To enable Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications company, to build mobile telecommunications towers on its islands, China granted the Solomon Islands a$ 66 million loan.

The Solomon Islands and Australia also provided funding for Huawei’s 2018 contract for underwater telecommunication cables to and from the islands.

In a meeting billed as a” Ministerial Dialogue on Police Capacity Building and Cooperation Between China and Pacific Island Countries in Beijing,” the Solomon Islands, Tonga, Kiribati, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and the Cook Islands sent delegates to hear China’s plan to strengthen law enforcement and security cooperation in 2023.

In a joint 2023 statement, the Solomon Islands reportedly agreed to Beijing’s positions on Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Tibet.

” China has been on the front foot across the Pacific for many years, doing trade and security deals with island countries, while the US is only now stepping up with new embassies opening in Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Tonga”, said Ben Bohane, a Vanuatu- based Pacific political analyst and photojournalist.

From the perspective of islands, the competition has given them for the first time as various powers try to court them, including Arab nations like Israel, Japan, and even India, according to Bohane in an interview.

Meanwhile, on the island nation of Kiribati, a” Chinese police delegation team works with the Kiribati Police Service to assist a community policing program, and martial arts kung fu, and an IT ( information technology ) department, assisting our crime database”, Kiribati’s acting Police Commissioner Eeri Aritiera told Reuters in February.

About a dozen uniformed Chinese police officers landed for a six-month rotation in 2023 and have since been updated.

When asked about Kiribati and China, the US State Department told government-run Voice of America (VOA ) in February,” We do not believe importing security forces from [ China ] will help any country.” After excluding Taiwan, Kiribati established relations with China in 2019 and is located two hundred kilometers south of Hawaii.

China is considering how to finance the reconstruction of Kanton Island, a coral atoll in Kiribati, which had been a major stopover for military and commercial aircraft during World War II.

Kanton will now be a tourist destination that Chinese tourists visiting other islands would enjoy visiting, according to China and Kiribati. If financed and built by China, the airstrip on Kanton would be for passenger flights, including within Kiribati’s chain of islands, but not for military use, Kiribati said.

Kiribati also receives financial assistance from the US, Canada, Japan, the European Union and others.

” Australia is supporting the Kiribati Police Service with major upgrades to its policing infrastructure, including a new barracks and headquarters and radio network”, Australia’s Foreign Affairs Department told Reuters in February.

The International Dateline intersects the Equator, and Kiribati’s islands are splattered across the map in four different areas.

Some islands are east of the dateline, while others are west of it, and some islands are north of the Equator, while others are below it.

One of the largest exclusive economic areas on earth is Kiribati, which asserts more than 3.5 million square kilometers of territorial rights in the Pacific Ocean.

” Pacific countries have long felt their infrastructure needs have not been met, so it is difficult for them to tell island nations not to accept assistance from China if traditional partners like Australia, New Zealand, and the US do n’t provide the wharves, roads, and airports,” Bohane said.

Under The Compacts of Free Association ( COFA ), Washington exerts some control over three island countries: Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau.

Palau’s Rock Islands. Palau, a tiny island nation in the Pacific, established one of the largest marine sanctuaries in the world, claiming to be interested in protecting the ocean for future generations. And the country’s Covid- free. Photo: The Pew Charitable Trusts

The Pentagon has the power to land troops and weapons on COFA’s territories under the agreement, which was signed in 2023, and to prevent other nations from doing so. Many COFA citizens who enlisted in the US armed forces as a quick way to become Americans after serving in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other countries are familiar with the US military.

After feeling economically exploited and destabilized by China’s overwhelming wealth, Palau President Surangel Whipps reportedly requested from the Pentagon to construct ports, bases, and airfields on its islands.

Under COFA, the US agreed to pay$ 7 billion over the next 20 years in assistance to Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau. In February however,” the funding was dropped from the security supplemental in the US Senate, under pressure from conservatives who wanted to lower costs”, VOA reported.

” With no amendment process permitted, the funds could not be added back in”.

A mangled COFA could wreck the islands ‘ confidence in US backing, critics said. It “opens the door for China to make similar overtures to the COFA nations”, Hawaii’s Senator Mazie Hirono warned.

The US West coast is protected from China’s eastern shores by a Three Island Chain, a theory that was developed in the US during the US-Korea War to protect against China and the Soviet Union.

Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and other islands in the increasingly militarized and contested South China and East China seas are included in the First Island Chain.

Further southward, the Second Island Chain connects Guam with the Mariana Islands, Palau, Yap, and islands farther south.

The Third Island Chain runs south from the Aleutian Islands, through the center of the Pacific and the Hawaiian Islands, to American Samoa, Fiji and New Zealand.

Since 1978, Richard S. Ehrlich, an American foreign correspondent reporting from Asia and the recipient of Columbia University’s Foreign Correspondents ‘ Award, has been based in Bangkok. Excerpts from his two new nonfiction books,” Rituals. Killers. Wars. &amp, Sex. — Tibet, India, Nepal, Laos, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka &amp, New York” and” Apocalyptic Tribes, Smugglers &amp, Freaks” are available here.

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Squad ditches Quad to keep US heat on China – Asia Times

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In early April 2024, the fleets of four nations —Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and the United States — held a seafaring training in the South China Sea.

Australia ‘s&nbsp, Warramunga, Japan ‘s&nbsp, Akebono, the Philippines ‘&nbsp, Antonio Luna, and America’s Mobile worked together in these waters to strengthen their joint abilities and – as they said in a joint&nbsp, statement – to “uphold the right to freedom of navigation and overflight and respect for maritime rights under international law”.

For Exercise Balikatan 2024, boats from the Philippines and the US operated alongside American and European naval forces a few weeks later, between April 22 and May 8.

For this Balikatan (” make- to- back” ), over 16, 000 forces participated in an area of the South China Sea that is outside the territorial waters of the Philippines. The Coast Guard of the Philippines participated in Exercise Balikatan along with the warships of these countries.

This is important because it is the ships of the Coast Guard that most often&nbsp, encounter&nbsp, Taiwanese ships in these global waters, portion of which are disputed between China and the Philippines.

Although China is not named in the standard documents accompanying these exercises, they are undoubtedly intended to be a part of the growing military action the US is engaged in along China’s maritime border. &nbsp,

The Philippine Navy&nbsp, BRP Lake Caliraya, was simultaneously attacked and sunk during the Balikatan practice by the military arteries from the Philippines and the United States. The Philippine National Oil Company gave the ship, which was made in China, to the military in 2014 as a donation.

The notion that it was the only ship in the Philippines ‘ army that was made in China did not go&nbsp, unnoticed&nbsp, within China. Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla- Taborlupa, a director of the military forces of the Philippines, &nbsp, said&nbsp, that this was “purely coincidental”.

The four major countries ‘ defence ministers met in Honolulu, Hawaii to explain the political repercussions of these martial exercises off China’s beach during Balikatan.

Australia’s Richard Marles, Japan’s Kihara Minoru, the Philippines ‘ Gilberto Teodoro, and the United States ‘ Lloyd Austin met for their next meeting to discuss their engagement in the region that they call the Indo- Pacific.

The officials ‘ public relations team began using the name” Squad” to send to these four nations just before the start of this appointment. Although they did not officially announce the establishment of a new alliance in East Asia, this fresh moniker merely serves as a de facto denotation of its life.

From Quad to Squad

In 2007, the leaders of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States met in Manila ( Philippines ) to establish the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue ( or Quad ) while their militaries conducted Exercise Malabar in the Philippines Sea.

The Quad did not initially involve the Philippines, whose president at the time—Gloria Arroyo—was trying to&nbsp, improve&nbsp, ties between her country and China.

The Quad did not develop because Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was angry with Washington’s growing antagonism towards Beijing. The Quad revived in 2017, when more in&nbsp, Manila, with a more honest plan to operate against China’s Belt and Road interests in the region, which subsequently- US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson&nbsp, called&nbsp, “predatory economics”.

The US has been frustrated with India’s pain with the kind of pressure battle the US has been launching against China and Russia over the past two decades. India refused to stop buying discounted Russian energy, which was a pragmatic decision during an election period ( although India’s purchase of Russian energy has &nbsp, declined&nbsp, over time ).

When asked if India may consider being a NATO part, India’s Foreign Minister S Jaishankar&nbsp, said&nbsp, that India does not promote the “NATO mentality”.

The US government was irritated by India’s reluctance to engage in the full-fledged New Cold War with China, which led to the decision to leave the Triple and form the Club with the more resolute and determined Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

It is important to observe, however, that in April India&nbsp, delivered&nbsp, a batch of hypersonic BrahMos cruise missiles to the Philippines, sold for US$ 375 million and produced by a joint venture between wings manufacturers in India and Russia.

The fine print of the package does not hide the possibility that these weapons might be used in the fresh pressure campaign against China.

Pivot threats

Since its “pivot to Asia”, the US has sought to inspire China. The US trade war that began in 2018 generally fizzled out due to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its attempt to build the superior production lines to avoid US trade regulations ( for example, when the US tried to prevent China from importing silicon chips, the Chinese&nbsp, developed&nbsp, their own production capability ).

The US’s campaign to pressure Taiwan into being at the forefront of its efforts has also failed. The inauguration of Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching- te on May 20 brings to the helm a man who is&nbsp, not interested&nbsp, in pushing for Taiwan’s independence, only 6 % of Taiwan’s population&nbsp, favors&nbsp, unification with China or independence, with the rest of the population satisfied with the status quo.

The US moved its gunsights to the Philippines because it was unable to create the necessary controversies about Taiwan. Although the Philippines and China disagree on the status of several islands in the waters between them, these disagreements do not suffice to compel either nation to go to war.

In April 2024, former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte&nbsp, recalled&nbsp, that when he was president ( 2016- 2022 ),” there was no quarrel. We can return to normalcy. I hope that the ruckus can be stopped because Americans are the ones who are urging the Philippine government to go out and find a conflict and, perhaps, start a war there.

In March, President Marcos&nbsp, said&nbsp, that he is” not poking the bear” and does not want to “provoke” China. However, the Squad’s formation two months later indicates that the Philippines has now taken Taiwan as the country’s frontline for US provocations against China.

China’s vice chair of its Central Military Commission, Zhang Youxia, &nbsp, warned&nbsp, against “gunboat muscles”. ” Reality has shown”, he said,” that those who make deliberate provocations, stoke tensions, or support one side against another for selfish gains will ultimately only hurt themselves”.

This article was produced by&nbsp, Globetrotter and is republished with kind permission.

Vijay Prashad is an Indian historian, editor, journalist and chief correspondent at Globetrotter. He is also an editor of&nbsp, LeftWord Books &nbsp, and the director of&nbsp, Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research.

He has written more than 20 books, including&nbsp, The Darker Nations&nbsp, and&nbsp, The Poorer Nations. His latest books are &nbsp, Struggle Makes Us Human: Learning from Movements for Socialism&nbsp, and ( with Noam Chomsky ) &nbsp, The Withdrawal: Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Fragility of U. S. Power.

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China tech shares hint at economic green shoots – Asia Times

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Strong tech company results are obscuring China’s gross domestic product ( GDP ) data, which some analysts believe will indicate better days for Xi Jinping’s largely underperforming economy.

China’s standard data readouts these weeks can make for disturbing reading. Deflationary pressures are making headlines, but there are n’t any indications of a clear and sustained acceleration.

Case in point: news on Friday ( May 17 ) that China’s consumer spending lost steam in April, rising just 2.3 % year on year versus 3.1 % in March.

Industrial output accelerated, while, expanding 6.7 % over the same time. The discrepancy demonstrates how the Chinese market is still reliant on global demand and the uneven nature of growth.

According to Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank,” the history of this week’s statistics is that of prevailing prudence by households and the private sector, as financial sales and fixed property purchase came in weaker than expected.”

Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, and another Chinese tech behemoths are, however, presenting a pleasant counternarrative of financial green stems that suggest Beijing’s signal initiatives are gaining some sway.

Alibaba, the e-commerce giant, reported its biggest annual growth increase in the first quarter, with net income rising 10 %. Gaming giant Tencent, meanwhile, reported a 62 % surge in net profit.

Example abound among other island computer systems, suggesting Beijing’s efforts to achieve this year’s 5 % GDP growth target are fairly working.

They even mention Team Xi’s renewed assurance that the country’s government is finally committed to resolving the housing crisis that is the source of the country’s sagging consumer prices and uncertain economic prospects.

According to UBS’s planner Meng Lei, current property sales and fresh starts have yet to reach bottom, while total earnings have remained pressured despite subdued demand in the first quarter.

China’s home shortage will remain to stymie growth in 2024. Image: Twitter Screengrab

However, Meng predicted that as house exercise stabilizes and inflation recovers, earnings will increase as inflation and household income rise.

Venu Krishna, a planner at Barclays, continues,” The club for the party to offer has been set very high, but the Big Tech basics still look good below and we think there’s room to run over the next pair of rooms.” Post-quarter income from the largest companies in the S&amp, P 500, and now the big tech adjustments have increased even more.

This year, Xi’s group unveiled plans to address real land troubles some economists compare to Japan’s 1990s awful- product debacle. According to reports, Beijing is reportedly coercing local governments and state-owned corporations to purchase thousands of properties that have not been sold.

Strong efforts to clear China’s extensive undisclosed housing stock may significantly increase consumer and business confidence.

Reversing the turmoil narrative had likewise stifle Xi and Premier Li Qiang’s ability to boost capital markets, rebalance growth engines toward new products and services, and create more potent social safety nets. The former effort is essential for influencing customers to invest more and keep less.

In a fresh document, JPMorgan asserts that” we believe this could be a game change in the sense that home sales may at least maintain rather than worsen.”

Franklin Templeton also cited positive indicators that the real estate nightmare is coming to an end in a note to clients. The signs that” Chinese authorities have been easing home purchase restrictions – these restrict buyers to purchases in their home province and/or limit the purchase of a second property” and that” they have been lowering mortgage interest rate floor limits” encourage this.

As Beijing addresses economic headwinds more forcefully, count Michael Burry among the China tech optimists. The investor made famous by the book&nbsp,” The Big Short” &nbsp, upped his bets on Alibaba and JD.com in the first quarter of this year.

According to recent filings, JD is the top holding by Burry’s Scion Asset Management, with its stake in the e- commerce giant increasing by 80 % in the first quarter, representing an additional 50, 000 shares.

Burry, who saw the 2008 US subprime crisis coming better than peers, has seen a zigzag in China tech investments recently.

Burry’s most recent bets demonstrate the cautious yet discernible return by global investors as China’s stock market shifts from a US$ 7 trillion rout from a 2021 peak to January 2024.

Among Burry’s new holdings is in search engine giant Baidu, sometimes likened to China’s Google. Those on which he’s scaling back include Amazon, Google parent Alphabet and Warner Bros Discovery.

Of course, the decisions of one investor do n’t make or break global investment trends. It’s interesting that a well-known value investor known for his grave warnings and cataclysmic predictions is bullish on a sector that many Western peers have left for dead in recent years.

According to Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares, a provider of exchange-traded funds in China,” we believe many Asia-focused investors who have been overweight India and Japan are becoming concerned about India’s high valuations and Japan’s continued currency weakness.”

According to Ahern,” China’s equity market could benefit from investors shifting profits from high-value markets to low-value markets.”

People pass by the Tencent headquarters in Shenzhen, in the Guangdong province of southern China. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Noel Celis

It also highlights the dangers of Xi and Li failing to take bold financial decisions at the moment. Since 2015, a well-established cycle of boom-bust cycles has plagued Chinese markets. In the summer of that year, Shanghai shares plunged 30 % in just a few weeks.

Many top fund managers have found that success in bolstering capital markets, increasing transparency, and reducing the dominance of state-owned enterprises has been too inconsistent since then. Xi’s headline- grabbing clampdown on tech platforms, including Alibaba and Tencent, beginning in late 2020 and arguably still ongoing, also torpedoed confidence in the sector’s future profitability.

And so John Woods, chief investment officer for Asia at Lombard Odier, speaks for many when he worries China’s equity rally is at odds with fundamentals.

” The equity rally may be driven by a combination of fear of missing out, hopes of a Chinese economic recovery, Beijing’s pro- growth policy stance, foreign investor rotation from US and Japan stocks, as well as attractive valuations, particularly in technology- related names”.

Furthermore, Woods notes,” the stability and consistency of Hong Kong’s dollar peg to the US dollar also offers foreign investors some confidence. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities would like to sustain the rally with policy proposals. The most recent proposal would exempt individual mainland investors from a 20 % tax on Hong Kong-listed dividends.

Yet the rally” seems to be expectation- based and liquidity- driven”, Woods says. ” Whether it can continue largely depends on China’s corporate revenue outlook”.

And the broader economy’s ability to turn the corner. The good news is that the first-quarter earnings for China’s major tech companies are encouraging signs of green growth.

According to Allianz Global Investors, “tighter control of costs has fed through into improved bottom-line profitability. While top- line growth has generally been as muted as expected.” A notable increase in dividend payouts has been witnessed in addition to the improved earnings picture. The dividend hikes have, to an extent, been spurred by a recent regulatory push, but from a fundamental perspective, there certainly appears to be room to increase dividends”.

The bad news is that Xi’s reform team has a lot to prove in light of the market’s frequently wild gyrations since 2015.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, for example, counsel caution about the upside for mainland shares. ” We see near- term technical overbought signals, which could deter further buying by global quant funds”, they write. Consumption and the housing market” could continue to be under pressure” due to” continuing pressure on deflation and corporate earnings.”

The same goes for financial reforms. Along with China’s ever-present regulatory risks and concerns about growth, tech shares are subject to headwinds as a result of worries about the property crisis and the yuan asset exodus.

This latter dynamic is being complicated by the US Federal Reserve’s reluctance to ease interest rates, extending the “higher for longer” era for yields.

The success of Huawei Technologies&nbsp and other companies in avoiding US sanctions designed to stifle the sector has contributed to the bull case surrounding China technology.

How China Inc. has been catalyzed by US presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden to innovate and advance up the value-added scale is one of the potential unintended consequences of attempts to undermine the semiconductor industry.

US sanctions were characterized as “double-edged sword,” according to Bernstein analyst Qingyuan Lin. It “may stifle China’s progress in cutting-edge regions, and they also compel it to expand its supply chain, pursue self-sufficientness, and prosper in sectors that benefit from increased domestic substitution.”

However, Xi’s success in promoting private sector innovation over outdated state-owned enterprises depends on whether Chinese tech shares gain a wider audience. In theory, Beijing must do so more quickly and credibly to establish equal playing fields, strengthen capital markets, promote transparency, and strengthen corporate governance.

And, of course, to end a property crisis that has China in global headlines for all the wrong reasons. Beijing is now asking SOEs to purchase unsold property, which would introduce non-commercial distortions in a market already fraught with them. This is significant because it is already rife with them. &nbsp,

In February, Premier Li called for “pragmatic and forceful” steps aimed at “boosting confidence”. He urged policymakers to” concentrate on addressing real-world problems that concern both consumers and businesses.”

President Xi Jinping and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. Photo: Xinhua, China .com.cn

Li’s comments came around the time Beijing statisticians were confirming the lowest annual&nbsp, foreign direct investment&nbsp, since 1993— just$ 33 billion in 2023. The figure, which records monetary flows involving foreign- owned entities in China, was 82 % lower than the 2022 tally.

Xi’s efforts to rebuild confidence have been hampered by MSCI’s earlier this year decision to remove dozens of Chinese companies from multiple indexes. The action highlighted the need for reform as investors look for less risky places to invest, including Japan, which is nearby.

The trick is to take the lessons learned in 2015 and subsequent years.

At the time, Xi’s Communist Party loosened rules on leverage, reduced reserve requirements, delayed all initial public offerings, suspended trading in thousands of listed companies and allowed mainlanders&nbsp, to use apartments as collateral to buy shares. Then, Xi’s government rolled out advertising campaigns to buy stocks out of&nbsp, patriotism.

Given the severity of the property crisis and deflationary pressures of the present, it seems as though merely providing stimulus will be less effective this time.

Another issue is the US’s continued efforts to slow China’s growth as a tech superpower. Biden unveiled a new round of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles earlier this week, totaling 100 % of Trump’s.

Biden also slapped new taxes on mainland solar cells, batteries, construction cranes and medical equipment as well as steel and aluminum.

Team Xi has already stated that it will “take resolute measures to defend its rights and interests.” That could, in turn, see Biden up the sanctions ante ahead of the November 5 election, putting China’s tech industry on edge.

The next wave of restrictions, it seems likely, will attempt to stymie China’s ambitions in the field of artificial intelligence. Already, the specter of heavy- handed regulation – and Xi’s party putting its own priorities ahead of tech development – are clouding China’s AI future. &nbsp,

Even before Biden’s latest tariffs, analysts at Barclays were doubtful about China’s ambitious goal of reaching 70 % self- sufficiency in semiconductors by 2025. The endeavor is still “at the start of a very long journey”, Barclays says.

China is indeed moving quickly toward a faster transition of its economy, moving away from property to technology and services. Tech profits are telling the story, and they are piqued by optimism in some circles that the economy is moving on a more dynamic, value-added path.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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