Asia

Manila is at the middle of a political wind where shifting alliances and great-power rationality could make or break its regional interests due to the Philippines ‘ high-stakes bargain of offering to reduce US medium-range missiles in trade for China’s restraint in contested waterways.

In response to last month’s reports from various media sources, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had suggested a quid pro quo arrangement with China to get rid of the US Typhon missile system if China stopped its anger in the South China Sea.

Marcos Jr, responding to Chinese requirements for the projectile system’s removal, highlighted China’s weapon features, emphasizing that China’s army far surpasses the Philippines ‘.

He claimed that he would give the Mod missiles to the US if China stopped its territorial claims, harassment of Asian fishermen, and sea battles, including ramming, water cannoning, and laser-targeting Philippine vessels.

Prior to mutual training, the Philippines will receive training with the US Typhon weapon system. A new squad from the Philippine Army Artillery Regiment will be trained in the program during the course of the training.

In 2024, the US conducted joint martial exercises, but the Typhon program has remained in the Philippines as a result of rising tensions with China. The technique, which was recently relocated to an unknown location, includes Tomahawk and Standard Missile-6 weapons that can strike pieces of island China.

China has criticized its appearance and accused the Philippines of promoting local unrest and waging an arms race. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro dismissed China’s complaints, calling them meddling in regional affairs.

The Philippines must balance asserting its sovereignty with maintaining its alliance with the US, with Marcos Jr’s striking position. It’s uncertain whether China will take a constructive approach to Marcos ‘ present.

The Philippines is at the centre of a two-level political game, one that involves territorial disputes with China and the other that is affected by internal social rivalries, due to the endless deployment of the US Typhon missile system.

China views the rollout as a weakening walk in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, while the US views it as part of its missile walls isolation approach against China.

However, the Marcos-Duterte conflict threatens to destroy the Philippines ‘ pro-US tilt. China reportedly supports the Trump political clan, which was supported by Vice President Sara Duterte and former president Rodrigo Duterte, to weaken Marcos Jr.’s administration, potentially jeopardizing upcoming US military exercises there.

For solid statements may only serve to mask fears of US abandonment under the following Trump administration, despite Marcos Jr’s latest strong rhetoric against China.

Given that the Philippines perhaps lose US$ 500 million in military help, Asian defence officials and experts in international policy are eagerly awaiting the Trump administration’s place on China. Their positions range from a more assertive protection, a wait-and-see strategy, and diversifying collaborations to a negative view of the US selling the Philippines to China.

The Trump government’s attempt to delay US international support for 90 days, pending a review to decide whether such initiatives make the US safer, stronger, and rich, presents a significant challenge for continued US aid to the Philippines.

The Philippines ‘ poor economic performance raises questions about whether it can finance expensive military equipment like multi-role fighters ( MRF ) or submarines, which have been on its wish list for decades, or even fulfill its ambitious plans to purchase the US Typhon missile system.

The Philippines ‘ justification for declaring its intentions to purchase Typhon may be to increase its strategic value to Trump-affiliated players in the US defense-industrial base, keeping the Philippines on the US’ radar. However, the US typically restricts the sale of the multimillion-dollar-per-unit Tomahawk and Standard Missile-6 to higher-tier allies such as the UK, Japan and Australia.

It is also doubtful that the Philippines ‘ alternative defense partners, such as Japan and Australia, have the diplomatic, economic and military clout, much less the willingness, to confront China over the Philippines ‘ South China Sea claims.

While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has assured the Philippines of its “ironclad” support of the US-Philippines 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT), the statement sounds more like boilerplate to calm Philippine fears while maintaining the US’s non-committal attitude about publicly supporting the latter’s South China Sea position.

In a commentary for the Cato Institute in December 2021, Doug Bradlow asserts that the Philippines is irrelevant when it comes to the US’s defense and that its attempts to evade US security guarantees are of little use to US strategic interests.

In contrast to Bradlow’s assertions, Raymond Powell in the South China Morning Post (SCMP ) argues for continued US military support for the Philippines, which is a treaty ally and a key component of US efforts to contain China in the First Island Chain.

Bradlow points out that while US military access to Philippine bases is always beneficial, no Philippine president would permit the use of the nation’s territory for US military operations against China, aside from in the event of an improbable attack on the Philippine archipelago.

According to Bradlow, the Philippines would become a permanent adversary of China’s geographical proximity. He also mentions the Philippines ‘ political unreliability and its military prowess as reasons to support US forces.

Donald Trump’s softer words toward China in his first term may suggest that he has become more pragmatic and focused on upholding US supremacy while avoiding a conflict with the rival superpower.

Andrew Byers and J Tyler make reference to the Trump administration’s transactional and pragmatic stance in a December 2024 article in the peer-reviewed journal Survival that the US might start to” cooperation spiral” with China by reducing its military and weapons presence in the Philippines and allowing the China Coast Guard (CCG) to reduce operations near disputed Philippine territory in the South China Sea.

Andreas Kluth mentions in an opinion piece for Bloomberg that Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Trump all have an imperialistic streak driven by “might make right” logic rather than conflicting ideologies.

According to Kluth, if the US, China, and Russia disagree on how to divide the world into spheres of influence, as they did at the 1945 Yalta Conference, it will undoubtedly lead to war and end smaller nations like the Philippines that are caught in the middle.

In a world like this, the US might decide to sell out the Philippines once it realizes that expanding its sphere of influence to China’s doorstep is not worth a major conflict, especially not over the Philippines, which, despite sharing some democratic values, is arguably of little strategic value to US interests.

Should that happen, the Philippines could revert to its Duterte administration-era appeasement stance toward China at the expense of its territorial integrity, writes Jenny Balboa for East Asia Forum.

According to Balboa, such a scenario could sever Marcos Jr.’s political fortunes and dynasty. She mentions that Marcos Jr.’s goal is to persuade Trump that both Trump and the Philippines would benefit from supporting the Philippines and standing up for China.

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Japan, 2009. It is a sunday in August. A person is spotted lying in the back seats of a rental car in a parking lot in Saitama, a provincial capital, about 30 kilometers north of Tokyo. Yoshiyuki Oide is his brand. It turns out that he’s not having a rapid sleep – he’s dying.

His suicide is primarily thought to be a murder, and the produce is carbon monoxide poisoning. But the officers are no convinced, but they knock on the door of the female Oide had been dating, 35-year-old Kanae Kijima. The research into what had come to be known in the internet as the” Konkatsu killer” situation has just begun. The name derives from konkatsu, meaning relationship looking.

Data from the investigation led to the discovery that Kijima may have killed three people she met on dating websites. Initial reports of suicide were false, but all three murders were later determined to be fabricated. Kijima, who has always maintained her innocence, was found criminal in 2012 on the basis of what was commonly accepted to be anecdotal evidence, mostly due to the court’s agreement. She was sentenced to death. The decision was upheld in successive panders, and she is now on death row awaiting murder.

Kijima’s circumstance was equivalent to that of Chisako Kakehi, who died in prison on December 26, 2024, while under sentence of death. After a court determined that she had entrapped and swindled money from three men ( including her husband ), she had been found guilty of murder and fraud, and she had been sentenced to the death penalty. She had also been found guilty of murder and fraud.

But there was also a unique feature to Kijima’s case. Numerous media outlets have been paying attention to the defendant’s appearance since the beginning rather than the terrible nature of the crime. How could a girl described as “ugly and overweight” maintain to draw these people, according to versions on the same problem in common boards, newspapers, and magazines?

There was a rumor that her success was due to her “homely” traits, which are thought to be the myth of plump women as being cheery, nurturing, and excellent cooks. It was suggested that men may choose for a woman’s comfort and kindness over a fashionable woman’s “air of superiority”.

Someone who has been given the death penalty in Japan typically vanishes from the public attention. However, Kijima kept a site where she detailed her lifestyle and relationships, and continued to blog entries that during and after the trial, perhaps through her attorneys. She continues to write about a variety of topics, including the types of cookies that are available in the confinement facility and the conditions on the death row. She also offers nutritional advice and reflections on the lay judge experiment in Chinese legal procedure.

Kijima pushed up, but the media eagerly mined her posts to dispel myths about gender roles and look. She has used her thoughts to highlight these biases in her analysis of the legal evidence in her sharp criticism of the emphasis on her looks and sex.

Telling the story

For her book Butter, author Asako Yuzuki used Kijima’s event as inspiration to create a hypothetical tale. A journalist who is covering the case of a lady murderer is sucked into her swirling fascination with butter and generous food, exposing sexism and fat-phobia in Asian society.

Kijima, who has published both a narrative and a debut novel, wrote on her blog to express her profound dissatisfaction with the publication of the book, writing,” What Yuzuki and the editor are doing is nothing short of fraud. They are complicit in murder if they violate external communication rights, not only thieves. I truly believe this book is crass because they continue to use my title without permission.

But, when I interviewed her, artist Yuzuki insisted that, more than the details of the crime, she was interested in the relevance of Kijima’s circumstance, in how the Chinese media frequently sensationalize tales.

Chinese media frequently reflect the viewpoint of strong men. … This discovery was pivotal for me. Prior to that, I hadn’t really considered elections or discrimination in the internet or had much questioned it. However, it hit a muscle when it came to something I adore – eating.

Stereotypes and societal objectives

In her guide, Yuzuki queries some deep-seated Chinese stereotypes – especially around people and eating. She says that the concept of “marriage looking” is also popular in Japan, and women who love cooking are generally labelled as “domestic” or “obedient”.

But, in her practice, people excited about eating is far from obedient. Cooking is potent, in contrast, and a person experienced in the kitchen could just as quickly hurt someone as she could hydrate them. ” There’s a fine line between caring and risky precision”, she told me.

Social media have grown to be a powerful tool for protesters and poets like Yuzuki to interact with others and increase their voice. She has joined other writers in advocating for marginalised groups, including physical immigrants, highlighting the intersectionality of problems such as gender, class, and criminal justice.

Through the writings of writers including Yuzuki and through the Kijima event, the Kijima event offers a strong representation on the impact of political expectations regarding sex and demeanor. Through the facts, Kijima’s blog posts from prison, and through the work of writers including Yuzuki, the Kijima case is a rich source of inspiration. Beyond the question of guilt or innocence, it demonstrates how female criminals are criticized for their deeds as well as for breaking the rules of femininity.

This dual scrutiny coincides with historical biases in Japan, where women who challenge societal norms are frequently portrayed as dangerous outliers. Kijima’s portrayal as an unconventional femme fatale evokes the 19th-century trope of “poison women” – dofuku. This portrays women as obliterating forces that ruin the lives of those who live there.

The death penalty was only used once in 2022 and not at all in 2023, so it appears to be a method of exemplary justice. Many Japanese people believed she had murdered many people while disobeying conventional expectations for femininity.

The case has reinforced the idea that her crimes extended beyond the courtroom to the realm of societal betrayal.

Martina Baradel is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oxford on the Marie Curie.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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