With the amazing record of Aleppo by opposition troops, the forgotten Syrian civil war has once more erupted. A complicated set of circumstances set the scene for rebels to launch an offensive, causing uncertainty in Syria and igniting wonder in President Bashar al-Assad.
In a fresh earth with the Covid crisis, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the Gaza issue, the Syrian civil war has been largely forgotten. It is now strongly revolving around the world.
Status quo prior to the Aleppo harm
Let’s consider what was happening in Syria before the new rebellion.
Russia and Iran had backed the Assad government, and its forces were in strong command of Syria’s largest towns, Aleppo ( the commercial hub and Syria’s second-largest area, with a population of 2 million ), Damascus, Homs and Latakia, among others.
After the fall of Islamic State ( IS ) in 2019, IS remnants and just about all jihadist groups and rebels, together with their families, gathered in the northwestern city of Idlib. This doubled its inhabitants to 2.7 million, making it Syria’s largest area.
Significantly, Idlib stock a huge border with Turkey. Turkey has a military presence in northern Syria, and it has ruled a sizable area during three military functions in the years of 2017 and 2018.
The Kurdish People’s Protection Products ( YPG), which has US assistance, are generally in charge of northern Syria, as well as the Kurdish and Arab majority populations south of the Euphrates River. This area includes many of Syria’s fuel and wheat production.
A 2020 peace agreement that Russia and Turkey brokered strengthened the status quo. A surprise attack by a partnership of insurgents and criticism makes has now slowed this down.
Why did the rebels harm Aleppo?
A partnership of several rebels and anti-Assad opposition groups with an Idlib focus form the forces that took part in the Aleppo rude. The biggest block is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), which splintered from Al-Qaeda in 2016.
The Syrian National Army ( SNA ), a rebel organization that Turkey supports, is a second significant group. Within the Units and SNA alliances, there are a lot of smaller armed groups.
A mediator is necessary to unite for different groups into a alliance. Turkey appears to have fulfilled this position. Turkey had the opportunity to provide the go-ahead to the Aleppo offensive by taking advantage of the caretaker position of US politicians following the elections.
Former President Joe Biden is rarely in a position to focus on Syria and is politically fragile. President-elect Donald Trump’s past Syria policy suggests he did not much worry who controls Aleppo.
Another contributing factor is Russia’s concern with the expensive war in Ukraine. For about three years, Russia has struggled to win the war, seeing an increase in deaths and costs. Russia is a significant Assad government provider of weapons. However, almost all of the Russian military staff and, most importantly, their weapons were concentrated on the Ukraine before.
Russia’s diversion, and weakening support for the Assad state, partially explains the possibility seized by the Units and SNA alliances.
Iran is yet another significant admirer of the Assad administration. Since October 7th, Israel and the US have been putting strain on it by backing Hamas and another anti-Israel political groups like Kuwait and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has accused Iran of providing Hezbollah with arms.
Added to this, Iran has had a series of social losses. Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s chairman, died in a plane crash in May 2024. Ismail Haniyeh, the president of Hamas political parties, was killed in Tehran in July 2024. Most recently there have been rumors that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is critically ill.
Iran’s interest may have been diverted from Syria due to these elements, which could have weakened its help for the Assad government.
Hamas ‘ wonder assault on Israel on October 7 appears to be the true driving force behind the Aleppo unpleasant. That attack demonstrated how a well-planned, coordinated wonder operation was defeat a much more powerful force militarily.
Opposition parties in Syria good used October 7 as a unit and banded together to achieve the same goal: the capture of Aleppo. They struck when it was least expected as a result of the important people in the Arab fight being distracted.
What may happen then?
After their magnificent achievement in capturing Aleppo, the anti-Assad makes ‘ morale is high. They will strengthen their keep in Aleppo. Rebels may even go back and attack Hama, the next big area south of Idlib.
Turkey may continue to provide social support and resources to the rebels. Turkey aims to expand its influence in northeastern Syria through Sunni Muslim vassals, which is Turkey’s mainstay. Its main purpose is to reduce and, if possible, decrease areas controlled by Kurdish YPG. A crucial stage in this endeavor is the capture of Aleppo from the Assad government.
Kurds may prefer to deal with Units than the Assad state, even though they are unhappy with Turkey’s growing role in the Syrian civil war. Kurdish militias have already announced that they are leaving Aleppo and won’t fight insurgents there.
Assad continues to receive essential, albeit weakened, help from Russia and Iran. Domestically, Assad enjoys backing from important districts, including the Shiite-Alawite people and secular-minded Syria who oppose the creation of a totalitarian state. These organizations give Assad a crucial source of support, which strengthens his administration’s resilience in the face of criticism advances.
Assad is anticipated to enhance his efforts to retake Aleppo. He may use the conflict as an opportunity to strengthen his position in the areas also under his control and consolidate his hold on other important regions even if he unfortunately loses the city.
The Syrian civil war remains unsettled as the land bones into three areas: Turkey-backed Sunni forces in the northeast, US-supported Kurdish troops in the east, and the Shiite-backed Assad state controlling the west and south.
Each party, driven by international and local passions, continues to establish its keep, deepening the divide and complicating hopes for peace.
Mehmet Ozalp is Charles Sturt University’s executive part of people and cultural religion, director of the Center for Islamic Studies and Civilization, and associate professor of Islamic research.
This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.