Cambodia’s ruling party has clinched yet another landslide victory in an “unfree and unfair” general election, pocketing all but five of the 125 parliamentary seats up for grabs, according to the latest unofficial results.
Victory for the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), which has been in power since 1979, was assured after it disqualified its only viable rival from competing in the ballot in May.
The real question was how many people would turn up to vote at Sunday’s election and how many would heed the calls of banned and exiled opposition leaders to boycott the election or spoil their ballots.
After polls closed on Sunday evening, the National Election Commission (NEC) put voter turnout at 84%, slightly higher than the last general election in 2018.
“This allows us to conclude that our people have participated in the democratic movement in Cambodia,” Prime Minister Hun Sen said in a voice message on social media on Sunday evening, according to local media.
“They want to maintain the existing and continuous harmony and prosperity, and want to get away from the extremist group who always causes destruction,” he added, referring to exiled opposition leaders.
On Sunday evening, a ruling-party spokesman suggested there may be 300,000 spoiled ballots, which appears to be a low-ball figure.
There were almost 600,000 spoiled ballots at the 2018 general election, or nearly a tenth of the vote, far more than the share of the electorate who voted for the second-placed party.
The royalist Funcinpec party, which received a mere 1.2% of the vote in a commune election last year, is believed to have won closer to a tenth of the popular vote on Sunday, picking up five seats in parliament, according to unofficial results.
Hun Sen, who turns 71 next month, has ruled Cambodia since 1985, making him the longest-serving head of government in the world.
In recent years, the self-styled strongman has consolidated a “personalist” rule over Cambodia, now a de facto one-party state.
Since the beginning of the year, the government has closed down independent newspapers, harassed an already beleaguered civil society, and imposed intimidating loyalty tests across all areas of society.
An estimated 6,000 opposition supporters have defected to the ruling party, either because of threats or financial gain, this year alone, according to pro-government media.
At times, Hun Sen’s actions appeared “paranoid,” analysts said.
The opposition Candlelight Party, which won around a quarter of votes at last year’s local elections, was rocked by lawsuits from the ruling party, forcing many of its leaders to leave the country or resign. In May, the NEC announced the party’s disqualification from this month’s election over a paperwork technicality.
Foreign reaction
“The United States is troubled that the July 23 Cambodian national elections were neither free nor fair,” the US State Department said in a statement on Monday morning.
“As the ruling Cambodian People’s Party forms a new government,” it added, “authorities have an opportunity to improve the country’s international standing, including by restoring genuine multi-party democracy, ending politically motivated trials, reversing convictions of government critics, and allowing independent media outlets to reopen and function without interference.”
The ruling CPP controlled all 125 seats in parliament after polls in 2018.
Ahead of that ballot, the country’s only viable opposition party, the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), was forcibly dissolved on spurious charges of plotting a US-backed coup. Its leader Kem Sokha was arrested for treason and was sentenced to 27 years of house arrest in March.
The CNRP’s parliamentarians lost their seats and most fled abroad, joining the party’s co-founder Sam Rainsy in exile.
Last weekend’s election was held up by the ruling CPP as a de facto plebiscite on Hun Sen’s plans to hand over the premiership to his eldest son, former military chief Hun Manet, who played a prominent role in the party’s campaigns.
On the eve of the election, Hun Sen seemingly confirmed suspicions that his dynastic succession will take place next month when the new cabinet is formed, which is set to see a far-reaching generational shift as the party’s aging grandees make way for youthful faces, many being their own children or relatives.
“In three or four weeks, Hun Manet can become the prime minister. It depends on whether Hun Manet will be able to do it or not,” Hun Sen said in an interview with China’s Phoenix TV that aired last Thursday.
The following day, the US- and British-educated Hun Manet, 45, led the ruling party’s final-day campaign rally in Phnom Penh, from which his father was absent.
Ahead of Sunday’s election, exiled CNRP leaders called on Cambodians to spoil their ballots as a way of showing their desire for a meaningful opposition choice. They say it will be difficult to trust the official result.
“Vote counting is taking place behind closed doors. This will allow the NEC to put out any figures it pleases, but no one is going to believe them,” Sam Rainsy told Asia Times on Sunday evening.
The US, European states, Japan and Australia refused to send official election monitors. Kamnotra, a news outlet, reported that 10 political parties that took part in the election had not registered an agent to observe voting and ballot counting.
The ruling party rushed a new law through parliament last month that now makes it a crime to incite others to spoil their ballots, while also disqualifying anyone from running for office in the future who hasn’t voted in at least the previous two elections.
Most of the intrigue on election day centered on a Telegram account set up by an opposition activist in which dozens of voters purportedly posted photographs of their spoiled ballots. Hun Sen demanded they publicly apologize or they would face prosecution.
The succession
Even after stepping down from the premiership potentially next month, Hun Sen is still expected to dominate politics. He will remain president of the ruling party, a post that means he can dictate party policies and appointments.
Some commentators suspect that he may create a special cabinet position for himself or seek to become president of the National Assembly or Senate, the latter of which would mean he is acting head of state when King Norodom Sihamoni is out of the country.
Few expect real change from Phnom Penh any time soon. There is little sign that the government will open up more political space for opposition parties, especially while it undergoes a once-in-a-generation leadership succession.
The swollen bureaucracy will need to be cut down to size, which could frustrate some people who had expected lucrative promotions. The ruling party will thus remain vigilant against signs of dissent.
Hun Manet, who attended the elite United States Military Academy at West Point, New York, and later studied at New York University and the University of Bristol in the UK, speaks English fluently and often comes across as more genteel than his father.
Rather than Hun Sen’s paternalist image, Manet confects a more brotherly stance, often posing with young fans.
At Sunday’s election, he ran for a parliamentary seat in the capital Phnom Penh, usually an opposition stronghold.
In 2018, Manet was made deputy commander-in-chief of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces and commander of the army.
He was also put in charge of the ruling party’s youth wing and runs the Samdech Techo Voluntary Youth Doctor Association, a party-aligned charity that played a key role in Cambodia’s successful vaccination drive during the Covid-19 pandemic.
He was made a four-star general this year before resigning from the military so he could run for parliament.
Yet despite his expensive education in the West and his quick-fire promotion through the military, Manet often parrots his father’s political worldview.
Before the ballot opened, Manet claimed that the masses “have committed to voting for the Cambodian People’s Party to ensure a bright and prosperous future of the nation for the next generation,” he told a large crowd.
On the campaign, he said that only the CPP can maintain peace and stability and warned that “extremists,” meaning the now-banned CNRP, were trying to “destroy this election.”
Asia Times reached out to the CPP and Manet for comment.
Hun Sen has said that the next Council of Ministers, the cabinet, will be announced by the end of August.
Leaked lists of nominees that have circulated for months purport to show that there will be a far-reaching handover of power, as Asia Times documented last week.
Almost all of the ruling party’s grandees, many in their 70s, will step down and be replaced by a younger generation of officials, mostly their own children. At least half of the rumored next cabinet will be composed of relatives of the current party elite, according to the leaked lists.
It is expected that Tea Seiha, the current governor of Siem Reap province, will inherit the Defense Ministry from his father Tea Banh. A son of Interior Minister Sar Kheng will take over his position.
The children or in-laws of other CPP elites, including the late Sok An and party co-founder Chea Sim, are tipped for ministerial roles. Hun Many, another of Hun Sen’s children, is also expected to join the cabinet.
That generational succession process will ensure stability within the party, analysts say. It means that the country’s main political families will keep their own patronage and corruption networks, thus maintaining their share of the spoils of power, even while the Hun family consolidates its personalist rule over the country.
However, it remains to be seen what degree of independence Manet will have as prime minister. Prior to being elected to parliament at Sunday’s ballot, he had never previously held an elected office. Neither has he served in a governmental role.
Hun Sen is expected to dictate policy from behind the scenes, as will many of the retiring party grandees.
It is believed that the trusted Finance Minister Aun Pornmoniroth, 57, will remain in his post, having consolidated power over other economic ministries in recent years.
In March, the government laid out an economic masterplan that is expected to last until 2050, which an inchoate Manet administration will be expected to stick to.
One area where Manet might have wiggle room is foreign policy. Some analysts reckon he could attempt to mend relations with the West that have deteriorated considerably since 2017.
Washington has accused Phnom Penh of making a secret deal that will allow Chinese troops access to the Ream Naval Base, in southwestern Cambodia, which is now being redeveloped with financing from Beijing.
The United States and European Union have imposed sanctions on Cambodia, although some reckon that they are now keen to be on better terms with Phnom Penh and will potentially limit their criticism of the state of Cambodia’s politics.
“Hun Manet will give them a chance to re-engage,” said Virak Ou, founder and president of the Future Forum think-tank.
It is believed that Sok Chenda Sophea, currently head of the Council for the Development of Cambodia, a government body charged with overseeing foreign investments, will become the new foreign minister next month.
He is expected to refocus the Foreign Ministry’s agenda toward boosting inward investment and trade diversification, away from the geopolitics of a US-China “New Cold War” that the ministry appeared to be focused on previously.
However, a major foreign-policy realignment is unlikely. China remains Cambodia’s largest trading partner and investor, and the country’s economic recovery, especially in tourism and a now-failing property sector, depends on continued patronage from Beijing.
“Hun Sen being in the background also means continuity given that he maintains, with other powerful families, like the Tea family, [and] close ties with China,” said Sophal Ear, associate professor at Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management.
Follow David Hutt on Twitter at @davidhuttjourno.