Sri Lanka: Chased out by protesters, a political dynasty plots its comeback

Exuberant young men splashing around in a pool with one theatrically soaping himself as a crowd cheered. Sri Lankans dancing in an opulent hallway as the iconic papare bands played festive tunes with trumpets and drums.

On July 13th, 2022, after crowds overran the political palace, these images spread all over the world, causing then-leader Gotabaya Rajapaksa to escape the nation.

It was a triumphant time for them.

Hundreds of thousands of people from all over Sri Lanka had defied a national curfew, calling on Rajapaksa to step over and marching happily to the national house.

Yet though his elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa had now left as prime minister to try to alleviate public outcry, he had repeatedly resisted requests to withdraw.

Decades of protests- called the “aragalaya” ( fight ) in Sinhala- had culminated in the activities of July 2022, leading to Mr Rajapaksa’s degrading, hurried exit.

Just a few weeks before, for events would have been inconceivable.

For decades, the Rajapaksa family – led by Mahinda- held a vice-like hold over Sri Lankan elections.

In his first term, Mahinda Rajapaksa presided over the bloody end to Sri Lanka’s civil war against Tamil Tiger rebels. That victory helped him establish himself as a national “saviour” among the island’s majority Sinhalese – his most ardent supporters compared him to an emperor.

As he grew more effective, but did his family. He appointed his younger brother, Gotabaya, as defence minister- a place he wielded viciously, critics say. Basil and Chamal, the other brothers, both acquitted the positions of finance minister and political speech, both.

The home appealed to a majority-Sinhalese republican center. But, for centuries, they survived allegations of corruption, financial despotism, widespread human rights abuses and reduction of opposition.

That changed in 2022, when a slew of procedures set off the government’s worst-ever financial problems.

Seventeen years after Mahinda first became president, Sri Lankan crowds celebrated the Rajapaksas’ fall, certain the family was finished.

But was it?

Reduce to two years later, and Mahinda Rajapaksa’s child, Namal, has thrown his hat into the band for the presidential election to be held on 21 September.

” It is bad enough that the people who were driven out after the aragalaya]mass protests ] are contesting these polls”, Lakshan Sandaruwan, a university student who took part in the demonstrations, told BBC Sinhala. What’s even worse is that some people may actually voting for a member of that family.

Rajapaksa is back on the scene alongside Namal.

Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the unhappy protesters who were chased out of the land, did not stay for very long.

He returned only 50 days after his ignominious departure, primary to Singapore and therefore Thailand. On his return, he was given the protections of a previous leader: a comfortable home and protection, all of it paid for by the government.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, an opposition politician, was appointed as president for the remaining two decades of Rajapaksa’s career. The family-led Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna Party ( SLPP ), which has a two-thirds majority in parliament, threw their support behind him.

Before his unexpected elevation, Wickremesinghe, a six-time former prime minister, was the only MP from his United National Party after their abysmal showing in the 2020 parliamentary elections.

He has focused on rebuilding the business. However, he has been accused of shielding the Rajapaksa family from prosecution by allowing them to recover while allowing them to reorganize. His claims have been refuted.

The army was called in to clean the crowds at Galle Face in Colombo, which had been the epicenter of the protests, shortly after Wickremesinghe became president.

Dozens of soldiers swooped on the site, dismantling tents and other belongings of demonstrators. In the following months, those who had stormed the presidential palace and were seen walking out with “souvenirs” – such as bed sheets or the odd keepsake to remember a historic day – have been jailed.

” Ranil protected the Rajapaksa family from the wrath of the people, ensuring the stability of the SLPP-led parliament, government and the state, and not doing anything to stop problem, and actually suppressing the development of any research against the Rajapaksa family people”, said political professor Jayadeva Uyangoda.

He also shielded them from global force by demanding that they answer questions about serious human rights violations and claims relating to war.

Many Sri Lankans are suffering more hardships as a result of reforms intended to reinvigorate a sluggish economy, which has irritated some.

Although there are no scarcity or power cuts, rates have sky-rocketed. The government has also scrapped incentives on necessities such as energy, and reduce security spending.

Income, however, have gone up as Wickremesinghe has sharply increased tax charges and widened the internet to shore up public income.

Some economists believe that the terrible measures are required to restructure Sri Lanka’s global debt and adhere to the bailout terms agreed with the International Monetary Fund in order to restore its macroeconomic stability.

The country’s foreign reserves have risen to around$ 6bn from a mere$ 20m at the height of the crisis, and inflation is around 0.5 %.

But the real-world effects on millions of regular Sri Lankans has been devastating.

A study from policy research organisation Lirne Asia, which surveyed 10,000 households, estimated that as many as three million people fell below the poverty line in 2023, pushing the number of poor from four million to seven million.

These individuals are putting their kids to school because they are starving and need more money.

The Rajapaksas have denied any wrongdoing, but the government’s Supreme Court ruled in 2023 that Gotabaya and Mahinda were directly to blame for the economic incompetence that caused the problems between 2019 and 2022.

According to Nimesha Hansini, a student at a Colombo university, the Rajapaksas were “directly responsible for the financial crisis due to the economic thefts carried out under the pretense of development projects during their tenure.”

” But nothing has changed for them – just their political strength has decreased”, she added.

” I do n’t have much to say about them”, says Rashmi, a farmer in the traditional Rajapaksa stronghold of Hambantota. We are suffering as a result of their actions. We voted for them before, but that will never arise again”.

Namal Rajapaksa wants to change these people’s minds; he wants to bring the foundation up.

His strategy has been focused on his father Mahinda’s reputation, who is still revered by some Sri Lankans as a warrior.

Despite global pressure, some countries have called for him to be charged with war crimes. The UN estimates that 100, 000 people, including 40, 000 Tamil civilians, were killed by Sri Lankan military forces in the last stages of the fight, but Mahinda Rajapaksa has never been found guilty of any crime and refutes these claims.

Mahinda’s campaign rallies are adorned with his pictures, and his social media posts feature pictures of him alongside his parents when he was younger.

He also tried to draw attention to how similar they are to one another, growing out his moustache and sporting Mahinda’s signature dark shawl.

Some of his promotion posts strike a note of rebellion:” We do not concern challenges, in reality, we welcome them. That’s everything I learned from my parents”.

Another blog refers to him as “patriotic, valiant and forward-thinking”.

” It seems to me that Namal Rajapaksa thinks, no wrong, that representing the reputation of his parents will help him to defend his father’s voting center and profit from it”, Prof Uyangoda said.

” One way to repair the SLPP’s shattered political bases is through this.”

Many voters do n’t seem to be buying it, and polls do n’t suggest Namal is a legitimate contender for the top position.

The most vile comment was made on a promotion post on Namal’s Instagram bill,” The latest heirs of the Rajapaksa family taking a shot at the presidency” Quite the home business is n’t it”?

Responses on the ground were more vociferous. ” I did not vote for Namal Rajapaksa. The years of hardship we have lived are a plague on that home”, HM Sepalika, a farmer who’s been resettled in Vavuniya in the northeast, told BBC Sinhala.

The people of this nation banded together to start this conflict because they did n’t want the Rajapaksas. However, they continue to aspire to the presidency because they are trying to retake office and ask voters to support them, according to Nishanthi Harapitiya, a store associate in Hambantota.

People say they don’t get Namal significantly.

” Why should he ask for our ballot? He is a baby with no knowledge. Who may support him in the election? Unless one vote for him out of sympathy for his parents, he may be elected leader”, said Mohammed Haladeen, a seller from Kathankudy in northeast Sri Lanka.

Interest is now mostly focused on three individuals: opposition head Sajith Premadasa, the communist National People’s Party group’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Wickremesinghe, who is running as an independent candidate.

However, Namal Rajapaksa might have played a longer sport.

New elections have demonstrated that people or supporters of once-unpopular strongmen can actually generate significant political comebacks, like Prabowo Subianto of Indonesia or Bongbong Marcos of the Philippines.

” He wants to remain socially related, protect the SLPP’s voter base, and be politically active till 2029″, Prof Uyangoda said.

Lakshan Sandaruwan, the college student who took part in the marches, agrees.

Namal is running for president this period, according to him,” to prepare the necessary qualifications for 2029.”

” But if the individuals do not act sensibly, the people themselves will make a Rajapaksa leader again”.