According to critics, the ruling Pheu Thai Party gained energy primarily from promises to reshape the country’s economy, which have not yet worked.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin might have to abandon the fund minister place he currently holds, which could result in a wider change of the case.
The party’s defunct predecessors, Thai Rak Thai ( TRT ) and the People Power Party ( PPP ) prioritised the economy, which paid dividends in raking in substantial political support and consolidating their strongholds across many constituencies.
Pheu Thai rose from their remains after the two parties ‘ legal battles ended in court order to end electoral fraud, and the fresh party now has the mandate of putting monetary policies first.
The three parties all capitalized on their achievements formulas, which, in the opinion of critics, focus on policies that aim to set the market on steroids.
Political parties must expand their reach in order for political parties to become successful. Small and medium-term projects with a strong chance of producing concrete results within the administration’s time frame were recommended in the quick-win statement.
The TRT’s premier financial purchase, according to the critics, was the one- million- baht town fund which allocated one million baht to all of the nearly 75, 000 villages global. Following its destruction, the TRT was resurrected into the PPP, which had largely inherited the nationalist welfare-oriented mission from its predecessor and kept political dominance.
With Pheu Thai, the grain- pledging plan worth several hundred billion ringgit became the party’s financial centrepiece.
The Yingluck Shinawatra state soon took it up following Pheu Thai’s landslide victory in the 2011 vote. Farmers were supposed to have the option of signing a commitment and then offering an unrestricted source of their wheat to the authorities for a higher price than they would receive by selling them at market rates. The scheme’s ultimate goal was to raise corn costs to protect producers from dishonest intermediaries.
The grain- promising project, however, met with a tragic ending in August 2017 when the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions found 15 people guilty of participation in false government- to- government ( G2G ) rice deals.
Previous commerce secretary Boonsong Teriyapirom was sentenced to 42 years in prison, while his lieutenant, Poom Sarapol, was handed a 36- time prison term.
Yingluck was given a five-year indefinite sentence for dereliction of duty in connection with the rice-pledging program, which caused at least 500 billion ringgit in deficits, some of it as a result of corruption.
The group has created but another monetary stimulus behemoth, this time with the modern wallet handout scheme, which promises to discharge the nation’s finances by at least half a trillion baht now that Pheu Thai is back in power after a nine-year hiatus in which two Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations were in power.
According to a source, the Srettha government is aware that this time’s stakes are too high for them to allow it to go wrong. The success of the handout program, even if it must first have the scheme off the drawing board, affects the scheme’s chances of returning to its former glory days and reclaiming large swaths of voter support.
However, a lot of planning and analysis, which ensures that the legal minefield is avoided, is necessary for this to occur. Due to frequent reshuffles over who the scheme’s beneficiaries should be and delays in the launch date, there has been a general consensus about how significant the work of Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat is.
Mr Srettha, meanwhile, is so tied up with his overseas trips that he hardly has time to check on progress of priority policies.
According to the source, it might be time for Mr. Srettha to let go of the finance portfolio he has held since becoming the premier and allow a financial wizard to take over.
Likely contenders to become the country’s chief financial official have been floated, including Kittirat Na Ranong, a finance minister during the Yingluck administration. However, speculation over Mr Kittirat was quickly dismissed after talk of Pichai Chunhavajira, an adviser to the prime minister, landing the post began making the rounds.
According to the source, experts should be in charge of economic issues, and Mr. Pichai appears to fit the bill.
It was reported that the appointment of a new minister will ease the premier’s workload. However, Mr. Srettha has repeatedly denied that a cabinet overhaul is on the horizon, claiming that ministers need more time to demonstrate their worth.
Mr. Pichai, a veteran of capital markets, might be able to serve as finance minister because it is believed he would be able to act as mediator between the Srettha administration and the central bank, with whom the premier has had disagreements regarding how to revive the economy.
Sethaput Suthiwartnareuput, the governor of the Bank of Thailand, has ignored Mr. Srettha’s request to cut interest rates as a quick fix for accelerating economic growth in a deflationary environment.
Some observers believe that changes will occur sooner rather than later, with parliament currently in recess, despite Mr. Srettha ruling out a cabinet shake-up in the near future.
Gains support for conservative forces
Former red shirt leader Jakrapob Penkair retreated to Thailand on March 28 after 15 years of self-imposed exile, shortly after he announced on Facebook that he would return to” serve the country.”
Jakrapob: Criminal charges to fight
His welcome home was somewhat muted in comparison to Thaksin Shinawatra’s, who made his return on August 22 last year.
He was quickly escorted by police to the Crime Suppression Division ( CSD ) upon his arrival at Suvarnabhumi airport to face criminal charges. The 56-year-old political activist was wanted on suspicion of conspiring to conceal weapons and ammunition without permission and for unlawful assembly, according to an arrest warrant.
Mr. Jakrapob, who was released on a 400, 000-baht bail, gave a brief media interview in which he expressed confidence in the legal system and reiterated his desire to work for the nation.
Now that Pheu Thai has formed an alliance with those in the so-called conservative camp and is thought to have assumed the leadership role, Mr. Jakrapob’s return has sparked a curiosity among political observers.
Mr. Jakrapob is anticipated to play a significant role in the ruling party despite having criminal charges to fight. He is regarded as one of the key figures behind the red-shirt movement because of his exceptional communication skills.
Working behind the scenes, he can mentor and coach young Pheu Thai politicians, ensuring its lawmakers are on a par with their counterparts, particularly those from the main opposition Move Forward Party ( MFP), according to observers.
Before getting into politics, Mr. Jakrapob established himself by hosting a talk show.
He was appointed PM’s Office minister during the 2008 Samak Sundaravej administration and served as a government spokesman between the Thaksin government between 2003 and 2005.
He resigned as a minister that same year after being accused of being a lese major in a speech at the Thai Foreign Correspondents Club in August 2007.
In 2009, he fled Thailand and entered self-imposed exile. The lese majeste charge was dropped in September 2011, but following the 2014 coup d’etat, he remained overseas.
Following Mr Jakrapob’s return, specula-
Several activists with close ties to the ruling party who also fled the country will soon return to Thailand after going through “attitude adjustment” are rife among observers.
Pheu Thai will spearhead a campaign against the MFP, which the ruling party and pro-etablishment parties perceive as a shared threat. This adjustment is thought to be a shift in direction toward the conservative camp.
The ruling party will face a difficult task, according to Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute.
The main opposition party’s approval rating has risen to 48.45 % from 44.05 % in December last year, while Pheu Thai’s rating dropped to 22.10 %, compared with 24.05 % in December.
The upcoming election for 200 senators to replace the 250-member chamber created by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order will be the first significant political contest. The five-year terms of the junta-appointed senators will expire on May 10, but they will continue until the new senators take office.
Due to the new Senate’s authority to approve appointments of members of independent organizations, but they will no longer be able to co-elect a prime minister, the battle for Senate control is anticipated to be fierce.
With two National Anti-Corruption Commission members retiring later this year and three more retiring next year, it is widely believed that influential figures are attempting to influence the outcome.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the Senate also has the power to approve charter amendments, making the stakes higher for the MFP and its allies. Due to a lack of support in the Upper House, they have struggled over the past few years in their efforts to rewrite the charter.
According to the analyst, who rates the MFP’s popularity as a sign that the new Senate will likely have members who support the main opposition party’s ideology and values.
Therefore, it is possible that caretaker senators ‘ support for the outcome of the Senate election will drag on until they can support new appointments in public, independent organizations.
Mr. Thanaporn cited the Senate’s decision to appoint Wisanu Waranyu as the new president of the Supreme Administrative Court as an attempt to obstruct those with alleged MFP connections.