On April 23, US and South Korean representatives met in Hawaii to discuss how little Seoul may contribute to the cost of running US military installations there.  , Under a ,” specific measures deal” that is renewed every couple years, Seoul helps compensate for the property and power used by US bases, the salaries of Asian civilians who work on the bases and construction of new facilities.
The discussions are beginning a little too soon because of concern that Donald Trump might win a second term in the November election, but the current agreement wo n’t expire until 2025. Before Trump can become president, both the US and the Republic of Korea ( ROK ) governments want to ratify a new agreement.
Negotiations before the recent agreement weretraumatic.  , They broke down in 2019 over the Trump Administration ‘s , demand , that the ROK’s annual payment increase from about$ 1 billion to$ 5 billion per year.  , That number may have pushed Seoul to supersede the alliance.
The topic was left unanswered when the Trump Administration took office.  , Under the incoming Biden Administration, the US and ROK agreed that Seoul’s payment would increase by a much smaller 13.9 %, which was still the largest increase in almost two decades.
South Koreans quite as Kim Hyun- hee, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy,  , foresee ,” the likelihood of another issue emerging within the Korea- US empire” if Trump is d- elected.
Kim Won- so, past under- secretary- standard of the United Nation,  , says,  ,” We need a Plan B” if Trump returns to energy.  ,
Or, as Asan Institute scientist Yang Uk , puts it, South Korea needs” to have the Trump risk”.
A Trump II Administration does “demand an increase in security costs sharing or the removal of US forces” , , warns , Lee Ki- doon of the Korea Institute for National Unification.
” What happens if the US president says he’s going to take US troops from Korea” ? , wonders , Chun In- bum, a retired ROK Army general.
South Koreans are appropriate to fear.  , Trump has famously , criticized , the US alliance as a powerful free- horse, demonstrating a lack of understanding of the proper benefits America enjoys from its alliances.  , But it’s worse than that.  ,
Second, Trump has expressed love for components of Kim Jong- turkey’s agenda.  , He has  , called , combined US- Korean military exercises “very confrontational” and , noted , that Kim “feels threatened” by them, echoing one of Pyongyang’s advertising points.
According to , multiple , sources, while he was president Trump seriously considered withdrawing US troops from South Korea.  , He has  , said , publicly” I want to get our soldiers out. I want to bring our soldiers back home” . , Trump has also reportedly , indicated , he plans to end the US- ROK alliance if he gets a second term.
Second, Trump seems to prioritize the appearance of a win over substantive improvement of America’s strategic circumstances.  , Trump prematurely , claimed , in 2018 that, because of his meeting with Kim,” there is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea”.
That year Trump , said , that “everyone” thought he deserved a Nobel Prize for his North Korea policy. Trump , boasted , in 2019 that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had nominated him for the honor.  , ( Abe used flattery as a , tactic , to manage Trump, who had criticized Japan as another free- riding US ally. )
According to a , Politico , story , in December 2023 based on interviews with people “briefed on his thinking”, a re- elected Trump would seek a quick deal with North Korea so he could claim success and turn his attention elsewhere.
One possibility would be a “freeze,” in which Pyongyang would maintain its current nuclear arsenal but stop producing new weapons.  , In return, the US would drop economic sanctions and provide additional financial aid.
Some analysts have argued in favor of such a deal, but it would have some serious drawbacks, including the near-impossibility of concluding that North Korea was adhering to the terms of it and the likely result of South Korea and Japan’s desire to deploy their own nuclear weapons.
The Trump experience has unquestionably eroded America’s reputation for reliability as a security partner, according to South Koreans and other US friends.  , Trump has shown that an anti- alliance candidate can get elected president.
If not for the fact that Trump is once more the Republican Party’s candidate for president and has a very good chance of winning another term, even after Joe Biden’s presidency has restored a more conventional US policy toward the Koreas.
A Republican Party faction has been born in the wake of a populist wave in US politics that values ideological purity and favors obstructionism over the traditional method of reaching agreement with the opposing party to address urgent legislative issues.  , One of the results is a recrudescence of America’s latent isolationism.
On April 20, 34 Republican members of the House of Representatives voted against the$ 8 billion Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act despite the Republican Party’s hawkish attitude toward China. Their main objection was that Congress should use the money to resolve issues at home rather than abroad.  , That attitude could easily spread to US- Korea relations.
Trump-proofing is also a part of the US Congress. Members of the US government approved the withdrawal from NATO in December by enacting a section forbidding the US president from doing so without the consent of two-thirds of the Senate or a separate bill from Congress approving the withdrawal.
A similar strategy to safeguard US alliances with the ROK and Japan might be a good idea.
Pyongyang might be doing something different to prepare for Trump II.  , South Korean analysts  , believe , the Democratic Pe0ple’s Republic of Korea might try to influence the US election in Trump’s favor through missile test launches, which remind US voters that the Biden Administration has not solved the security problem created by a hostile and well- armed North Korea.  , DPRK cyber operations might might flood US social media with pro- Trump messaging.
Thomas Schafer, former German Ambassador to North Korea,  , opines , that Pyongyang will” continue to ratchet up tensions with South Korea” with the intent of setting up Trump to negotiate a deal that would achieve “peace” for the price of withdrawing US troops or weakening the US- ROK alliance.
South Korea has endured decades of worry about its risky neighborhood, as well as fear of being abandoned by its allies, a superpower power. Korea struggled to keep its distinct civilization afloat in the pre-modern era against pressures and intrusions from China and Japan.
The Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 was the result of a battle between Korea and influence. South Koreans faced a triple challenge following World War II: preventing the Kim regime’s attempts to impose oppression on their own people, fostering a prosperous economy, and promoting a more just and democratic political system.
The ROK achieved admirable success in economic development and democratization.  , Sadly, however, South Korea’s massive supremacy over the DPRK in economic, technological, diplomatic and cultural power have not ensured the ROK’s security. The Kim regime still poses a threat to the South with conventional weapons and the ability to envelop Seoul with conventional weapons.
Trump is not the first US leader to mention the possibility of reneging on the ROK. US President Jimmy Carter had discussed this topic during the presidential election campaign when he gave the order to prepare for the withdrawal of US ground troops from Korea in 1977.
Carter’s plan was viewed as a betrayal by ROK President Park Chung Hee, who was particularly egregious because South Korea had dispatched troops to support the US military campaign in South Vietnam.
Stiff bureaucratic opposition prevented the implementation of Carter’s plan, but Koreans took notice.
US Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld declared in 2003 that he intended to retake control of the country because it was no longer required to thwart a North Korean attack.
Although a full withdrawal did not happen, 3, 600 US troops based in Korea redeployed to Iraq in 2004, never to be replaced.  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,
The ROK is once more faced with the possibility of stifling US support, just as Korea’s notoriously savage neighborhood is becoming more and scarier.  ,
The DPRK has recently increased its intimidating to the ROK in three ways. First, the North Korean military continues to use various methods for supplying its allies with nuclear weapons.
Second, Pyongyang alarmingly reversed its official policy this year, reclassifying South Koreans as foreigners, and designating the ROK as North Korea’s main enemy.
Third, Pyongyang’s tangible security cooperation with Russia has increased. As part of their compensation for North Korea’s supply of weapons, Putin’s technicians appear to be assisting the DPRK in upgrading its missiles.
China is increasingly insistent on controlling territory on its periphery and exercising its veto over the foreign policies of its neighbors in addition to North Korea’s persistent hostility. That could potentially expose South Koreans to US and/or Japanese attempts to avert Chinese dominance or regional war.  ,  ,
The US delegation will likely ask for another increase during this year’s negotiations for a new special measures agreement, and Seoul will likely agree to pay more. Seoul needs to lessen its vulnerability to criticism in case Trump resigns from office in case it is still in a precarious external environment despite prospering economically.
 , Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East- West Center in Honolulu.