SEOUL – South Korea’s social conflict, sparked by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s momentary declaration of martial law and his following impeachment by congress, has shaken the government’s standing away of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
That raises the possibility that Seoul’s ability to negotiate with the coming American chief, who previously demanded more money for US soldiers stationed there, may be hampered at a critical moment for diplomatic ties and the balance of power on the Korean Peninsula.  ,
According to Lee Chung-min, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,” the current political crisis simply dilates South Korea’s ability to build more resilient international laws and alleviate exceptional national security risks.”
In what some consider to be an emerging political pump, South Korea faces significant challenges as a result of Trump’s threatened business war with China, North Korea, and Russia, as well as the rising regional security threat.
Trump’s” America First” plan and new persuasive stoke toward potential US expansionism have once again highlighted the nationalist leader’s preference for interest-based guidelines over conventional alliances.
Some experts and observers believe that Trump will scrap a political strategy that forces allies to spend more money on defense, allowing the US to reduce its military expenditures abroad, despite his unwavering statements regarding his intentions for South Korea in the second term.
In October, the US and South Korea agreed on a new five-year cost-sharing plan to maintain 28, 500 American troops in South Korea, stationed to deter nuclear-armed North Korea, that raised defense costs by 8.3 % to 1.52 won ( US$ 1.13 billion ) by 2026. Seoul agreed to raise its contribution by 13.9 %, its largest annual increase in nearly 20 years, before Biden.
Trump made the suggestion on the campaign road that he would force South Korea to spend a lot more. ” If I were there now, ]South Korea ] would be paying us$ 10 billion a year, and you know what? Trump said in a statement to the Economic Club of Chicago on October 15, 2024,” They’d be happy to do it.” ” It’s a money machine. South Korea”.
During his first term ( 2016-2020 ), Trump accused South Korea of “free-riding” on US military might during his previous presidency and demanded Seoul pay$ 5 billion annually for the US deployment.
South Korea is now concerned that it might also stoke the Trump deal war’s fire. Trump’s implementation of a threatened 10-20 % blanket tariff and rollback of Biden-era subsidies would be detrimental to South Korea’s trade-geared economy, which sent$ 127.8 billion worth of exports to the US in 2024.
South Korea’s now-robust trade surplus with the US could fall by as much as$ 15.2 billion if Trump imposes a low-end 10 % blanket tariff, according to the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a think tank.
However, if Trump, a vocal defender of Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act, repeals these payment plans, South Korean companies like Samsung, Hyundai Motor Group, LG Energy Solution and SK Hynix does suffer major losses in the US market.
LG Energy Solution logged a second-quarter operating profit of$ 195.3 billion in 2024, according to regulatory filings. However, without the$ 447.8 billion US tax cut, this profit would reverse to a$ 252.5 billion net loss.
” Currently, it is uncertain if Trump will provide the subsidies. That is because Trump does not always honor previous commitments”, said Lee Jae-mook, a political science professor at the Seoul-based Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. ” Trump does not always play by the rules”, Lee added.
Lee also raised concerns that Trump might choose to avoid South Korea when negotiating with Pyongyang due to Seoul’s current political vacuum.
” To Trump, what is important is not South Korea’s interests or the interests of his allies, but rather, it is the interest of the US, including diminishing North Korea’s nuclear threat”, Lee said.
When the US and North Korea negotiate, South Korea has a lot of room to leverage its interests, especially if there is an area where Seoul’s interests align with those of Washington. However, the lack of proper leadership here means that there could be a risk of ‘ Korea passing,'” Lee added.
During Trump’s first presidency, then-South Korea President Moon Jae-in facilitated Trump’s meetings with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. South Korea was granted an inter-Korean military deal that lasted until 2024 thanks to those overtures.
Meanwhile, the National Intelligence Service of South Korea announced on January 13 that it has a rumor that Trump will meet with Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea.
It also projected the possibility of a” small deal” which could include “nuclear freeze and disarmament”. However, South Korea’s role in brokering such a deal would likely be slim, according to Hankuk University’s Lee.
” Frankly, the Constitutional Court could uphold President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment, but it could also reinstate Yoon. From Trump’s perspective, it is unclear who his counterpart in Seoul is”, Lee said. ” As of now, we are the bigger uncertainty than Trump”.
South Korea’s acting-President Choi Sang-mok said he would curb such uncertainties during a January 13 cabinet meeting.
” After the new US administration is launched ,]South Korea ] will mobilize all methods to communicate and coordinate with]the ] US ‘ new government”, said Choi, who assumed the national leadership role on December 27, 2024, after his predecessor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, was also impeached after just 13 days in office.
” We will focus on alleviating the current uncertainties and managing the country’s economic stability”, Choi added.
Choi’s ability to bring stability is uncertain, especially given the politicized allegations that he is preventing Yoon’s arrest after he failed to appear at his first impeachment hearing on January 14 at the Constitutional Court.
As acting president of an interim government, Choi’s decision-making authority is limited, adding to the sense of political paralysis in Seoul.
” It is challenging for Choi to assert himself in terms of politics or security,” Lee said. The best he can do is carry on the status quo, he says.
In light of the political unrest, different strategies have been suggested to prepare for Trump’s presidency. Heo Yoon, an expert on international trade, suggested that Seoul collaborate with regional conglomerates to informally approach Trump.
Heo, who spoke with the local Herald Business newspaper about the influence some Korean big businesses have on the US economy, prefers a” top-down summit diplomacy,” which South Korea currently lacks, said Trump.
Others have suggested that the legislature should play a more active part in diplomacy. Former deputy foreign affairs minister Choi Jong-gun called on South Korea to send a special envoy to explain our diplomatic policies in the name of the National Assembly Speaker.
Whether Yoon or the opposition prevails in the current chaos, Lee, the professor, said it is crucial to send a signal to the US that there will be no change in the US-South Korean alliance. He thinks the legislative chamber should be the source of this information.
” We must demonstrate that it is irrelevant whether the court upholds Yoon’s impeachment.” ]South Korea’s ] internal stance on the economic and security relationship with the US will not change”, said Lee.
For instance, leaders of the ruling and opposition parties could issue a joint statement urging both sides to say that the US-Korea alliance is strong and that we can speak out loud about North Korea’s security threats.” We must actively proclaim that our conflict is only a domestic issue.”