On May 8, 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrived in Budapest, Hungary, for a two-day condition visit at the offer of Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok and Prime Minister to celebrate 75 years of Sino-Hungarian connections.  ,
To enable shed light on ties between Hungary and China, I sat down and spoke with , Dr. Levente Horváth, the founding Director of the , Eurasia Center , of the John von Neumann University in Hungary. Horvath is competent in Mandarin Chinese and is an expert on the subject. The Eurasia Center‘s study focuses on political, economic, and cultural developments and styles across Eurasia. Horváth oversees the Center’s varied research activities, transfer programs, and workshops ,which are designed to lead to a better knowledge of tips and factors that lead to economic development and greater European communication and integration.  ,
His new book – Chinese Geopolitical Thinking: The Belt and Road Initiative from a Chinese Perspective – presents a nuanced ( and unorthodox ) interpretation of the ideas that motivate China’s foreign policy, including its much-bruited Belt and Road. In that myth-busting level, he challenges American stories about China.
The meeting was in two sections, beginning in Budapest following , Xi’s discussions with Orbán. We spoke once as we continued the conversation as I attempted to understand Orbán’s intentions in pursuing an end to the war between Ukraine and Russia in the face of Brussels’s unfavorable response to his travels because that portion of the interview took place prior to Orbán’s new higher rankings “peace operations” to Kiev, Moscow, Beijing, and Washington. Here is the pieced-together discussion:
Q: Orbán claims to be looking for a political alternative to the Ukraine-Russian conflict, and it has been reported on numerous occasions. He is on a” Peace Mission”. May you shed light on his intentions? What sustains him despite Brussels ‘ severe criticism?  ,
Horváth:  , Let me first become clear, I do not respond for Orbán. In my opinion, many factors explain Orbán’s program. I list those variables without placing them in order of importance. Orbán, who is a competent politician and diplomat, is motivated by the following criteria:  ,
- Orbán does not see that Brussels is interested in peace and he reminds everyone that NATO started as an alliance for peace, but” today, instead of peace ,]NATO’s ] agenda is the pursuit of war, instead of a defensive, it is an offensive]alliance ]”. He had so intervene. The most pressing and crucial issue of now is Europe’s harmony.
- Europe does n’t feel safe, and Orbán wants to do something about that. He wants to stop the anguish and destruction in Ukraine and prevent the conflict from spreading to Europe.  ,
- Orbán sees that the effects of this battle have severely beat Hungary’s economic growth and profitability. In other words, the conflict has led to financial hardships for some and also led to a certain form of deindustrialization. The best way to prevent the deindustrialization of Europe’s economies and maintain stability is through harmony.  ,
- Orbán believes that without speech and politics, peace is not feasible. When no one in Europe appears to be interested in maintaining harmony, Orbán may step up and take the lead.
- Orbán believes that Putin is no insane but more logical. Orbán a few days ago said that Putin”is a more than 100 % moral people. When he negotiates, when he starts to reveal his place, when he makes ideas, saying yes or not, he is super-rational”, Orbán believes, as reported by Switzerland’s Die Weltwoche.
For these reasons, I believe, Orbán, as president of the Council of the European Union, has undertaken this harmony vision – as he calls it. If tranquility is the goal, officials need to know what Ukraine, Russia, China, Türkiye and NATO are thinking. That is the first stage for a political arrangement.
Tragically, some in Brussels and Washington, calculating from their statements and actions, are dead set against Orbán’s harmony goal. For Europe as a whole, this is foolish and dangerous.  ,
Orbán continues to push ahead. Notwithstanding all the criticism from Brussels, Orbán and President Erdogan of Türkiye only met in Washington during NATO’s conference. Orbán is undeterred. Whether Orbán and President Biden will satisfy is questionable. I had, on the other hand, imagine that Orbán will match with former President Trump while in Washington. Orbán wo n’t care because he is more concerned with peace than what Washington, London, and Brussels think, despite the fact that Brussels ‘ foreign policy establishment will be irritated.  ,
Piedra:  , Orbán and Xi met in Budapest in early May this time. One important outcome of their sessions was that they elevated their bi-lateral connections to an “all-weather complete proper relationship” – those are Orbán’s terms. Please elaborate.
Horváth:  , In a word, the healthy state of Hungarian-Chinese relations today is the fruit of years of hard diplomatic work, which has withstood the test of time. We have embarked on a” Golden Voyage”, as President Xi recently said. You see, back in 2010, Hungary announced its” Opening to the East” policy. The goal was to broaden and expand the scope of our international relations. Because the Hungarian government recognized that the world economy was rapidly changing at the start of the next 14 years, Hungary has worked to strengthen its ties to Asian nations. In response to these economic and political shifts, Budapest’s foreign policy not only focused on China, but also began to actively engage with other Asian nations.  ,
Regarding China, I must mention that Hungary and the People’s Republic of China celebrated their 75th anniversary this year. Both sides stressed that relations between the two nations have never been stronger during the visit of Chinese President Xi in May. Hungary has entered China’s inner circle of strategic partners, which I think is encouraging, by increasing the level of strategic cooperation. I think the consequences of this partnership will be clear: All five pillars of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative – policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration and people-to-people exchanges – will continue to expand and deepen Hungarian-Chinese relations, notwithstanding a very complex global geo-political setting.  ,
At a joint news conference in Budapest, Orbán lauded the” continuous, uninterrupted friendship” between Hungary and China over the past decades.  ,
Piedra:  , But how did Hungary get to where it is today in its relations with China?  ,
Horváth: Hungarian and Chinese leaders both acknowledge that mutual respect and the principle of non-ingérence in one another’s domestic politics are prerequisites for successful relations. Additionally, they must be unburdened by or free of ideological disagreements. This approach to bilateral engagement is a significant cornerstone of Hungarian foreign policy, which helps explain how excellent Sino-Hungarian relations are in general.  ,
Moreover, based on our experience, we do not see the Belt and Road Initiative as a threat to our strategic autonomy as a sovereign nation. We do n’t care too much what Brussels thinks, even though we understand that Hungary is criticized by some EU bureaucrats for wanting to develop close relations with China. They are free to say anything.
If you had n’t noticed, Hungary’s meetings with President Xi in Budapest were extremely cordial and , not , designed” to make up for lost time”, so to speak, which perhaps has been the case with some other countries in the EU. Why? Because Brussels’s relations with China have been strained, they only have themselves to blame.  , Hungary does not hurl insults at China.  ,
Piedra:  , Despite their insults and confrontational language, EU countries continue to deal with China.  ,  ,
Horváth  , Countries in the EU ca n’t get away from the fact that China is the second largest economy in the world and, by some projections, its GDP will surpass that of the US within the next decade. As a result, some European nations ‘ leaders recognize China’s significance on the global stage, even though it is sometimes difficult for them to deny it. In order to strengthen economic ties and cooperation, they are still in Beijing. In this sense, reality trumps ideology. Despite the rhetoric, EU countries are unable to completely delink from China.  ,
So once again, despite all the hype or scare tactics from Brussels, Western countries maintain economic relations with Beijing. Our relations, I must say, are very good. This is because Hungary is pursuing a positive and constructive engagement policy. Additionally, we are a free and independent country that wo n’t let Brussels put pressure on us.  ,
Piedra:  , Can you explain why Brussels, London and Washington are not happy with enhanced Sino-Hungarian cooperations?  ,
Horváth  , To be sure, you must ask them. But, yes, the evidence would suggest that Brussels, London, and Washington are not happy with Sino-Hungarian cooperation. This is demonstrated by their frequent lectures and political criticism of China ( and Hungary ), which show how subordinate their economic ties to ideology are. Brussels should, in my opinion, focus on economic connectivity and integration rather than try to de-risk their economies from China’s economy. To pursue policies that aim to limit China’s influence in Europe, in my opinion, will not serve the interests of Europe. On this matter, in contrast, Orbán has been very smart and farsighted.  ,
Western nations are concerned about losing their historic position as the world’s preeminent power at the same time. But the times are changing. The traditional Western powers are no longer able to impose policies on other countries, as it seems, as the Western dominated unipolar world order is shifting towards multipolarity. To maintain good relations with other nations, the Western powers will need to work together and find common ground with other world leaders.  ,
Hungary, unlike most other European countries, does not support decoupling from China, as I said earlier. That upsets Brussels. Hungary instead tries to reap the full economic rewards of its cooperation with China and other Asian nations. We are pragmatic, which occasionally means that we wo n’t rebel against the ruling bureaucrats in Brussels or respond to them on their orders.
Therefore, I believe it is possible to say that Brussels, London, and Washington are unhappy with more Sino-Hungarian cooperation because our strong relations with China flies in their political and ideological direction, which blinds them to the benefits of constructive diplomatic and economic relations.  ,
Piedra:  , You have stated in your book , Chinese Geopolitical Thinking that” the Atlantic Era is coming to an end, the era of Eurasia has begun, in which China is playing an increasingly important role”. That is a powerful claim. Do you believe Western Sinologists and Atlanticists will reevaluate their opinions on how to handle relations with Beijing if your assessment is accurate?
Horváth  , By the beginning of the 21st century, China – and Asia more broadly speaking – had regained its dominant role in the world economy. This year, Asia will account for roughly 60 % of the world’s economic growth, according to the IMF. The world economy has moved 8,300 km eastwards from Europe to Asia in the last 40 years, putting the center of gravity in the process. Asia is once more today the pinnacle of the global economy.  ,
China is increasingly influential in international politics, with the United States and the EU as its allies, and it is seen as a steadily more attractive ally for nations in the Global South. This view is reflected in the rise of the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.  ,
In this context, Western Sinologists need to become aware of China’s developments and become more aware of its impact on international relations. What do I mean? China’s strategic thinking cannot be adequately described or understood in Western traditional geopolitics.  ,
Moreover, the Western-dominated unipolar world order – a legacy of WWII and a colonial way of thinking – is changing into a multipolar world order where there will be several new important countries from Asia, such as Indonesia and India, and other continents, Brazil, and South Africa.
And yes, I believe Western leaders should alter their stances toward Asian nations, which are no longer their home, given how increasingly they demonstrate political and economic independence and strategic autonomy in a new multipolar world order. It is safe to say that the” Atlantic Era” ]defining ] the single dominant center of power since the 15th , century is coming to a close. And this is difficult for Atlanticists to accept, which contributes to the rise in conflict in the world today. Hungary, for its part, will only work toward peace. In this regard, Hungary is eager to encourage peace between Russia and Ukraine and wants to cooperate with China to this end.
Piedra:  , In a related sense, you have said that a “new world order” is taking shape, and that China will play a significant role in its formation. What do you mean by “new world order”? Given your understanding, how do you see this “new world order” unfolding over the next few years?  ,
Horváth  , The decades after the Cold War saw the emergence of an American-led, unipolar world order. Our perception of the status quo is changing as a result of China’s recent resurgence as a global power. ]With ] the return of China , on the world stage, I think it is safe to say that international platforms that are not Western, such as the BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, are gaining strength across the globe. To ignore this fact would be foolish.
Piedra:  , Let me stop you. But does n’t China wants to be a hegemon?
Horváth:  , It is important to understand that, contrary to much of the thinking among Western elites, China is not seeking to replace the United States as the global hegemon. China does not seek to be a hegemon. According to the evidence, China operates in accordance with the guidelines set forth by the UN and does not want to interfere with other nations ‘ internal affairs.  ,
China believes that the Western elites, acting as hegemonic rulers, can alter the laws of international relations whenever it sees fit. Chinese President Xi has repeatedly emphasized that the world is large enough for both the US and Chinese economies to grow together. He desires a multipolar world order that benefits everyone.  ,
In contrast, Washington, with its Western ways of looking at things, sees China as a challenger and even as an existential threat. The US’s foreign policy, in fact, is based on zero-sum considerations – a  , principle where there are only winners and losers. Westerners believe that China wants to expand at the expense of the United States. This is not true, based on my understanding.  ,
Piedra:  , Most Western think tanks would not agree with you.  ,
Horváth  , China maintains a win-win philosophy in foreign policy, whereby cooperation and building mutually beneficial alliances are paramount for success. The global community does not suffer the same way as it does expanding its geopolitical influence around the world. Working with China, the nations of the Global South also want to strengthen their position in the changing world order that has previously been dominated by the Global North. This transformation appears to be inevitable, especially given the demographic picture: the West needs to realize that the 800 million people in the Western “world” pale in comparison with the 7.2 billion in the non-Western world.
Piedra: China is mysterious to most Westerners, including to many academics, who see the world through the simplistic lens of “good” vs “evil” in the conduct of foreign affairs. You have made the case that Chinese geopolitical thinking is more nuanced. In other words, present-day China is more the product of 5, 000 years of Chinese history and pedagogy than it is of messianic Marxism-Leninism, an ideology that is unprecedented in Chinese history, dates only to 1949 and is now running on fumes. Can you give a detailed explanation of how the West might interact with Beijing and how you interpret Chinese foreign policy?  ,
Horváth  , Beijing’s reform and opening-up policy of 1978 laid the foundations for China’s rise. Since the 1980s, the pace of China’s development in the areas of infrastructure ( railways, roads, river and seaports and air transport ) has been unprecedented, even unimaginable for Western countries. China has been working to reclaim what it believes is its proper position in the world economy since 1978.  ,
A few points of Chinese thought should be brought up. Ancient Chinese strategists argued in their writings that a nation must prepare for war, be well-versed in the fight, and appear weak in the process. China has prepared itself economically and is studying its potential adversaries, but this does not imply that it wants to go to war. China has thoroughly researched the West to understand its dominant practices and practices in terms of foreign policy. Interestingly, unlike the West, China has remained modest in its ambitions and does not seeking to take the lead on the world stage.  ,
Piedra:  , Here again, few in the West will agree with you.
Horváth , The West judges Chinese thinking through the lens of its own historical, social, and political developments. The West’s analytical approach is a mistake, in my view, because China has developed in a completely different context over the past 5, 000 years – it does not see development, I must again stress, as a product of geo-political dominance or hegemony, which is mostly a Western way of thinking. Western expression cannot be used in a standardized or overused manner to describe Chinese thought, especially in international relations.  ,
Piedra: Taking over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union, do you expect  , that Orbán will be able to improve China-EU relations, especially in the area of trade and investments? Or do you believe that Orbán’s efforts to restore common sense to international relations will be thwarted by the leadership class in Brussels, London, and Washington?  ,
Horváth  , To begin with, I’d like , to quote Orbán , in order to get a sense of Orbán’s thinking:” Progressive liberals will stop at nothing to defend their positions of power. Our adversaries plot how to get rid of us by sitting in the seats of power and at the head of institutions, rather than serving the common good. In this circumstance, we must prevail in 2024. And we will”.
Hungary ]has held ] the presidency of the Council of the EU, despite the European Parliament’s earlier efforts – lobbying against and even bad mouthing us – to postpone the Hungarian presidency. Brussels is constantly looking for ways to tie Hungary’s hands. To achieve its objectives, Brussels, for example, has sought to manipulate the rule of law (technical and procedural ) to take away Hungary’s voting rights in the Council. Moreover, Brussel’s demands to abolish consensus decision-making are also at the heart of Hungary’s refusal to veto joint decisions.  ,
Orbán, who is also the president of the European Union, wants to act as a mediator and peacemaker in disputes over the conflict in Eastern Europe and China, as well as pursuing compromises and advancing the integration of Europe and East Asia, particularly with China.  ,
Financial advisor and expert in international development Javier M. Piedra. He served as USAID’s deputy assistant administrator for South and Central Asia during the Trump administration.