SINGAPORE: Singapore downgraded its 2023 trade forecasts on Thursday (May 25) due to “worse-than-expected” performance in the first quarter of the year.
Besides the first quarter showing, the forecast was also weighed down by the manufacturing downcycle and lower expected oil prices, said Enterprise Singapore (ESG) in its review.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for the year have been downgraded to -10.0 per cent to -8.0 per cent, and the total merchandise trade forecast has also been adjusted to -8.0 per cent to -6.0 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, NODX contracted by 16.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, extending the 14.0 per cent decline in the previous quarter, ESG data showed. The decline was contributed by both electronic and non-electronic exports.
Electronic NODX contracted by 25.2 per cent, following the 15.9 per cent decrease in the previous quarter, ESG said. Integrated circuits, disk media products and parts of personal computers contributed the most to the decline, falling by 31.4 per cent, 41.1 per cent and 33.4 per cent respectively.
Non-electronic NODX meanwhile fell by 13.6 per cent following the 13.4 per cent decrease in the previous quarter.
The biggest declines were in non-monetary gold, petrochemicals and structures of ships & boats, which fell by 34.8 per cent, 24.6 per cent and 52.4 per cent respectively.
NODX to the top markets, except Japan, declined in the first quarter of the year. The biggest contributors to the NODX decline were China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
Singapore’s economy grew 0.4 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2023, higher than the advance estimates of 0.1 per cent, but still marks a sharp slowdown from the 2.1 per cent growth in the previous quarter.