Conflicts have eased somewhat in the South China Sea as Manila and Beijing appear to have come to an , agreement , on the charitable delivery of supplies to the Philippines ‘ besieged island, the rotting and rapidly deteriorating remnants of a WWII-era ship that was  , consciously grounded , on Minute Thomas Shoal.
To be sure, this new advancement in the long-running sea debate is encouraging. But another issue may however be just around the edge as both parties are already , arguing , about what precisely has been agreed.
In June, Taiwanese Coast Guard personnel , assaulted , and took command of a little Spanish vessel that was approaching Next Thomas Shoal.  , Some critics also called for the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty to be , invoked.  ,
Washington is undoubtedly reluctant to display any sign of weakness now that the Ukraine situation is fragile, the Taiwan Strait is in turmoil, and the US election season is in full swing.
The US Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense made , continuous visits , to Manila lately, bringing with them a US$ 500 million aid package and a plan for improved knowledge sharing.
In and around the Philippines in 2024, there was undoubtedly less US military engagement. For example, the US Marine Corps recently , flew missions , from Luzon with its new F-35B, and the US Army first , deployed , ( albeit temporarily ) its first Mid-Range Capability ( MRC ) missile to the Philippines as well just a couple of months earlier.
Given these tendencies, it’s worthwhile to ask whether risking an armed conflict with China in the South China Sea actually serves the US’s pursuits. Many in Washington evince grave concern over” Chinese expansion” and” Beijing’s aggression”, yet such attitudes do not actually conform to the facts of the case.
In the South China Sea, it is true that China has built up coast foundations, moving a lot of sand and concrete along with it and causing a lot of ruffle both inside and outside the area.
However, it is often noted that China has intentionally chosen not to fully utilize that fresh position “on the chessboard” by placing combat-ready air wings at the broad new bases.  ,
Also, the choice of resorting often to , water cannon , by the Taiwanese Coast Guard is not accidental. Another indication of caution is that Beijing’s goals are being pursued without using lethal force.
More importantly, one can see that China has n’t used force in large-scale form for more than four decades nor does it actually block or impede international trade in these vital water lanes, which is a remarkable record for a rising great strength.
So, what exactly is China’s activity in the South China Sea? Obviously, Beijing seeks to safeguard its own hunting and cutting prerogatives. The reasonably new bases for the Chinese Navy’s nuclear missile submarines and the proper imperatives to protect China’s trading routes are both more significant.
However, China’s main goal has been neglected by almost all investigating on the South China Sea problem, regretfully.
The Philippines is very close to the delicate Taiwan Strait when seen from a map. Washington would have a significantly better position in the event of a conflict between China and America over Taiwan by basing the new US in its former colony.
However, Manila politics can be quite topsy-turvy, and Americans are little aware of this fact because the country’s Constitution forbids foreign colonization. The base position is not at all secure given the complex history of Washington and Manila.
The US has therefore made improvements to facilities on six different sites, including Luzon, the island closest to Taiwan, to bolster its “new” foothold in the archipelago.
Given that China has a proven track record in the area and that there are significant nuclear risks, trying to defend Taiwan poses real problems.  ,
However, Beijing is now trying to show its disapproval of Manila’s decision to grant Washington new bases just south of Taiwan, which is an extremely dangerous issue at the heart of the current US-China military conflict.
It is not coincidental that the Philippines ‘ position at Second Thomas Shoal became a “hot potato” at the same time that the US began to take greater responsibility for enhancing its base on the northern flank of the Philippine archipelago.
Make no mistake, the US should act to defend the Philippines if that proves necessary. A seasoned alliance treaty relationship that is representative of a long-standing cultural-historical relationship.
Washington should, on the other hand, not take lightly the possibility of waging a nuclear war with another country. The US should vehemently oppose any suggestion of fighting with China over a disputable shoal or some enraged fishermen, according to common sense.
The South China Sea is increasingly known as” China’s Caribbean,” but American strategists need to understand this for the moment. As is well known, the US brooks no external great power intervention in the Caribbean, as proscribed in the , Monroe Doctrine.
Washington has always done what it needs to do in this sensitive area for US national security, even if that meant , regular military interventions , to the point of , carving up , the country of Colombia in order to build the strategically vital Panama Canal.
Beijing has been much less aggressive than Uncle Sam during his rambunctious adolescence in this regard.
Director of Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities is Lyle Goldstein.  ,