When the Hamas strike on October 7, 2023, occurred, Saudi Arabia and Israel appeared to be on the verge of a historic agreement to restore their diplomatic relations.
Since therefore, thousands of people have perished in Israel and Gaza. Additionally, worries about the conflict spreading throughout the area serve as the backdrop for frantic politics in the area, which includes US President Joe Biden’s visit to Israel on October 18.
The” de-risking” of the area, a crucial component of Saudi Arabia’s foreign and domestic agenda, is also in danger of being undermined. A resurgence of local unrest is the last thing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman needs as he works to implement” Vision 2030 ,” an optimistic economic, social, and cultural software that aims to make the country a popular tourist and investment destination.
Undoubtedly, the rise in crime in the Middle East poses a problem to the new shift toward de-escalation of tensions across much of the wider region.
The Abraham Accords, which established political ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, were among those that were signed in 2020. However, it goes even further, resulting in the filing of a package in March 2023 to mend rivalries across the Gulf and recover Saudi-Iranian relationships.
Through initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, which was unveiled at the G20 meeting in India in September 2023, these political breakthroughs created a place for increased local participation.
Officials from all over the area hoped that economic growth would combine the area and shift attention away from the failure to make progress in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue.
Gulf states are in danger of losing their delicate balancing act of supporting the Palestinian reason in front of their predominately Muslim communities while also making efforts to Israel and the US due to violence in Gaza and Israel.
For instance, Qatar has huge hosted Hamas’ political leadership while maintaining cordial relations with the US. It will probably now come under intense US and Jewish pressure to remove Hamas from power.
In 2020, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco both normalized ties with Israel. However, there has always been, at best, ambivalent public support for the Abraham Accords in the area, and it may then start to wane.
Dubai, the largest town in the United Arab Emirates, is preparing to host COP28, an international convention on climate change, beginning on November 30. The UAE won’t need a new geographical conflict to overshadow or endanger the event.
Saudi Arabia, however, is the place where the line is most precarious. This is due to the village’s spiritual status in the Islamic world, which includes guarding the two holiest sites of the faith, Mecca and Medina, as well as the ambitious raft of economic reforms it has implemented as part of Vision 2030.
Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, the current prince of Saudi Arabia, has been a fervent supporter of Palestine his entire life. The campaign for Arab statehood has long been well-known in the Arab world.
However, the king lord, his son and heir, has grown more interested in speaking with Israel. This has culminated in discussions to” normalize” relations between the two nations, which may mark a turning point in Israel’s approval in the Arab and Muslim worlds.
Crown Prince Mohammed told Fox News that” every morning, we get closer” to a bargain since late as September 20. In fact, a number of leaking to US media in the days and weeks leading up to the Hamas strike suggested that the Biden administration was driving the formation of an agreement.
People performances and covert politics
However, the Hamas assault and Israel’s retaliation have shattered this momentum. On October 13, Royal sources informed the media that normalization talks had been suspended but never given up.
For communication is consistent with Royal efforts to strike a balance between domestic and foreign interests. The” Arab groups” and” Israeli occupation forces” were both urged to de-escalate in an original Saudi Foreign Ministry statement on October 7.
However, Saudi authorities were more willing to take sides during the first Friday worship at the Grand Mosque in Mecca following the attacks, with the state-appointed divine pleading for support for” our sons in Palestine.”
Behind the outward displays of support for Palestinians, there is proof that Saudi Arabia is attempting to lead diplomatic efforts to stop the conflict between Israel and Hamas from escalating into a larger blaze that could involve Lebanon, Iran, and other countries.
Crown Prince Mohammed and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had their first dialogue since the two nations’ relations were reestablished on October 12. They talked about the current events in Israel and Gaza.
In Riyadh, three days later, the crown prince welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken amid reports in the media about the need for de-escalation and differences between Arabian and US jobs on the issue.
Such political actions are consistent with the queen king’s desire to” de-risk” the area. He is eager to see that nothing jeopardizes a number of” giga-projects” that have come to be known as Vision 2030, such as Neom, the futuristic new city on the Red Sea coast.
Saudi Arabia worries that a protracted or local conflict will discourage foreign funding in Vision 2030.
The success of the project was viewed as dependent on foreign funding. However, after dozens of top Arabian business figures were detained by the Saudi government at the Ritz-Carlton hotel in 2017 on suspicion of corruption, levels of foreign investment fell precipitously. The idea that their business associates may abruptly vanish or be upset alarmed traders.
Saudi Arabia must therefore bear a larger portion of Vision 2030’s prices themselves. This explains why Saudi officials worked with their Russian counterparts during OPEC meetings to maintain an oil price that would bring in enough money to support the projects.
Crown Prince Mohammed is determined to lessen regional tensions, including with Iran, because Vision 2030 is so closely linked to his promise to convert Saudi Arabia that he cannot afford for it to crash.
Saudi officials even recently launched a bid to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup and revised their plans to bring in 100 million customers annually by 2030, up to 150 million.
The Saudis want to expand the kingdom’s market away from an excessive reliance on oil, making it a destination for both capital and people. This is the driving force behind these initiatives. Another Center Eastern local conflict, particularly one that involved Iran, would jeopardize these goals.
playing the” standardization” cards
So where does the” normalization” of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel begin?
It fits Crown Prince Mohammed’s meticulous balancing act to put the operation on hold for the time being. Full-speed travel would have put the area at risk of attack from various Arab and Middle Eastern says, undermining the” de-risking” process.
Additionally, it might give Saudi Arabia more utilize because Israel and the US may be careful to prevent the recent violence from completely derailing the process.
Given the outpouring of anger in the Muslim world over developments in Gaza, I contend that pausing the process now makes military sense for Saudi Arabia. It also gives the Royal leadership the chance to steer the next stage of what is still a very delicate endeavor.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is a Middle East Fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute.
Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. read the article in its entirety.