US President-elect , Donald Trump begrudgingly met with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky , and French President Emanuel Macron in Paris to explore the way forward in Ukraine.
Zelensky is already jittery about any agreements he might have made, even though Trump claims to have persuaded him to continue with the agreements with Russia. A peace and dialogue are neither Macron’s desires, sometimes.
The Trump strategy for Ukraine is simple but full of munitions. Trump, to put it simply, proposes a ceasefire and negotiations and anticipates that Ukraine will formally lose some of its place to Russia. So far as can be determined, Trump has not yet talked to Putin.
When a territorial agreement is reached, there will be some kind of cushion area and some soldiers from France, Germany, and the UK serving as soldiers ( which Russia about certainly won’t agree to ). In some fashion, Ukraine will withdraw itself from any concern for NATO membership, possibly for a period of time ( anywhere from five to 20 times ).
What will be said by the Russians? As long as Russian troops are stationed on Belarusian territory, the Russians are unlikely to agree to a ceasefire. Putin, hence, will demand their expulsion from Kursk.
Due to Trump, the US/Ukrainian location is that Kursk is a negotiation device, and it seems that Ukrainians want to sell Kursk for Russian-held Ukrainian territory.
The Russians have now reclaimed about 50 % to 60 % of the Kursk territory that the AFU ( Armed Force of Ukraine ) initially seized. However, Ukraine has continued to undertake significant resources to the area, which means that it will take time to finally dislodge the AFU.
In this context, AFU deaths in Kursk, according to the Russians, are approaching 40, 000, with large losses of tools and weapons. There are no credible reports, but Russian casualties may become higher as well.
Putin’s options are either ( 1 ) to continue the Kursk counter-offensive, possibly increasing the number of troops and firepower, or ( 2 ) to accept that taking back all of Kursk is too costly in manpower and material, leading to a ceasefire in place.
Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, can be expected to follow solution one, but with a secret timetable that could take one or two months to complete the counter-offensive.
It is important to point out that there has been conflict between the Russian military, which hasn’t always had the same level of political enthusiasm as Russia’s, or who has not been as capable as privately advertised.
Socially speaking, Putin is not in good condition. He is tying up his outposts in Syria, but it could blow up anytime. No one can predict the exact design or goals of the new Syrian state.
Putin’s regional failure ( throwing most of his eggs into the Iranian-Hezbollah-Syrian basket ) has weakened Russian prestige. Another bad choices, such as the North Koreans or Chinese, even are fraught with small and long-term difficulties, some of which can be managed but not all.
What will happen if Kim Jong Un’s government crumbles or China experiences a tense financial problems? Putin has some possibilities, but a significant change in Russia’s national surveillance strategy may be required to proceed from here. Trump may see an opening ok, right?
Turkey, which has much more on its head than killing Kurds, poses a major problem for Putin. It wants to become a significant person in the former Russian footing ground, which was formerly known as the Turkic Central Asian country.
The” stans”, as they are called, are under pressure from NATO, from China and from Turkey, and Russia’s relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is, shall we say, problematic.
How this plays up is anyone’s guess, but obviously, Turkey will need a bigger position and lead place in exploiting the country’s natural resources, including uranium, gold, copper, and natural gas, among many others.
Trump’s plan’s main focus is on ending the Ukraine war. It says little about many of Russia’s reported objectives, although Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went through these in his , interview with Tucker Carlson, particularly protecting Russian speakers, denazification, security of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, a natural Ukrainian government, no NATO bases or troops.
All of this implies significant modifications to Ukraine’s Constitution and the withdrawing of several laws passed by the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s legislature, as well as canceling different National decrees.
Putin might want a ceasefire and negotiations on territorial issues and the status of forces to be concluded before these laws and decrees are signed. It’s still unclear whether he will or not.
There is talk of sending Zelensky into exile ( London is mentioned ) and holding elections in Ukraine in NATO circles. To accomplish this, political exiles from Ukraine would need to be able to go back to Ukraine and form organizations, and those who are imprisoned or under house arrest also need political freedom.
The Ukrainian secret services and their military enlistrers are the stumbling blocks. They are the ones ( both the” civilian” and military secret services ) that have been keeping the current Ukrainian government in power.
Without putting an end to these powerful, quasi-military police operations that systematically eavesdrop on Ukrainian citizens and orchestrate bombings and assassinations at home as well as in and outside of Russia, it is difficult to imagine how free elections could be held in Ukraine. Without a solution to the security services issue, it is difficult to imagine how any elections in Ukraine could go wrong.
The Ukrainian GRU, officially the Main Directorate of Intelligence, is , tightly tied to the CIA , in the US and , MI-6 , in the UK, and other intelligence services in the NATO countries ( i. e., BND or Bundesnachrichtendienst in Germany, DGSE or Directorate General for External Security in France, and the Security Service or Agencja Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego in Poland. )
Any attempt to overthrow or weaken the Ukrainians ‘ sister services will be met with resistance.
Another significant issue is the actions and role of the nationalist militias in the Ukrainian army, including Azov and a number of others. Included here is the Special Operations Forces ( SSO ) of Ukraine, which consists of 4, 000 Spetsnaz specialists.
Will these units follow orders from Kyiv or will they obey them? The truth is that the Ukrainian army’s professional and volunteer components could act as spoilers and trigger attempts to overthrow the country’s government.
The Biden administration, which has been funneling billions in weapons to Ukraine at the eleventh hour, thereby delaying negotiations, and conducting provocative NATO exercises that pose a direct threat to Russia, is only making matters worse for Trump.
The most recent example is the deployment of nuclear bombers, AWACS, and other aircraft ( some of which are from the allies, including Sweden ) that are close to Kaliningrad and conducting exercises in the Gulf of Finland and the Kola peninsula.
Additionally, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s statements, which are combative, claim that they are proud to have sand in the direction of the upcoming administration that wants to slow or stop sales of weapons to Ukraine and not make the situation worse by flooding Ukraine with weapons.
Oddly enough, Putin will find it more difficult to make concessions to Trump as a result of the recent blows to Russian prestige in the Middle East. Can Trump persuade Putin to cooperate?
He will require some potent sweeteners to entice Russia, but we cannot specify what they are. Meanwhile, the obstacles, including Biden, are sandbagging Trump and making real progress hard, even impossible.
UPDATE:  , Zelensky says discussions with US President-elect Trump , are premature, as Trump does not have the authority to address such matters.
Because he is not currently in the White House, it is difficult to talk to President Trump about this. By the way, I am going to call President Biden in the near future to raise the issue of Ukraine’s NATO invitation”, Zelensky , said.
The Ukrainian president also , expressed openness , to French President Macron’s proposal to deploy international military forces in Ukraine, potentially bridging the gap before NATO membership.
Reports indicate that the UK and France are  , considering , peacekeeper deployments after a possible ceasefire, an idea that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock , did not rule out.
Stephen Bryen is a correspondent for Asia Times and previously held the positions of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff and deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.  , This , article was first published , on his , Substack newsletter , Weapons and Strategy and is republished with permission.