It’s unclear whether this advantage will last until election day on January 13 but the ruling Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ) in Taiwan is leading in the polls for the upcoming presidential election by 3 to 5 percentage points.
The final surveys conducted by media and research organizations before the poll were released on Tuesday. In order to prevent new effects from influencing voters ‘ decisions, they will be prohibited from disclosing any additional polls over the course of the following 11 days in accordance with election laws.  ,
According to a survey by the United Daily News, DPP candidate Lai Ching-te and his deputy Hsiao Bi-khim have an overall rating of 32 %, while Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih and its deputy Jaw Shau- island receive an average of 27 %. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party and his lieutenant Cynthia Wu each have about 21 %.  ,
According to an ETtoday poll, Lai’s team has a 38.9 % popularity rating, compared to Hou and Ko teams ‘ 35.8 % and 22.4 %, respectively. A similar style was also observed in a number of different surveys.
According to a survey by the Japanese media company My-formosa.com, Lai’s team may receive 5.6 to 5.76 million votes, or 40.6 to 41.8 % of all votes. According to the report, Hou’s team may receive 5.06–5.21 million seats, or 36.7–38.5 % of all votes; in contrast, the Ko-team may garner 2.84–2.99 million vote totals or 20.6–21.7 % of total votes.
Yau Ching-yuan, a Taiwan-based Hong Kong critic, said on his YouTube channel on Tuesday that any minor events occurring over the next 11 days could significantly affect the outcome of the national vote in Taiwan because the DPP only leads the KMT by 3 to 5 percentage points.  ,
Yau claims that if certain events occur unexpectedly, Hou may defeat Lai. He uses a shooting occurrence as an illustration to show how Chen Shuibian, the president at the time, was able to win the election and extend his term by four times in 2004.
Yau claims that as Ko has won the support of some young voters, the DPP is likewise encountering more and more difficulties from the TPP. He claims that because the DPP has n’t improved working-class voters ‘ lot in life over the past eight years, many of them switched to supporting Ko. In addition to  ,
younger citizens
As Ko has pledged to address high home prices and governance problems, some fresh DPP followers who still despise the KMT may acquire voting for the TPP this period, according to The Financial Times on December 24.  ,
According to the report, 16.2 % of Taiwan’s voters are young people between the ages of 20 and 29.
One of the interviewees, a 23-year-old voting with the last name Chou, claimed that the present administration’s decision to increase conscription for men from four months to one year beginning in 2024 had been poorly explained.
Others expressed their disappointment at the DPP’s poor handling of a variety of issues, including Covid vaccines and use vouchers.  ,
On November 26, 2022, the DPP suffered a loss in local elections, which sparked the similar worries. Just five of the 22 districts and independent towns up for grabs were won by the ruling party, down from the seven it controlled.
According to some critics, the Chinese government has made an effort to maintain a low profile this time in order to avoid inciting Chinese anti-China sentiment, which had previously contributed to the DPP’s rise in popularity.
Song Tao, director of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, stated on Tuesday that Japanese people if” remain on the right side of history” and restore cross-strait relations to the “right track.”
He also urged Chinese to support “peaceful reconciliation” with China, claiming that both factors of the Taiwan Strait wanted it.
His concept came after Chinese President Xi Jinping declared Taiwan’s reunification with China expected in his speech on New Year Eve.  ,
Yuan Congressional
Apart from the presidential election, the Yuan Congressional elections will also take place on January 13.
Taiwan Public Opinion Forum chairman Michael You said last month that it may not be very difficult for the DPP to win the presidential election but it will be hard for the party to control more than half of the seats in the Yuan Congressional.
DPP spokesperson Chang Chih-hao said on December 29 that if the Kuomintang and TPP form an alliance in the Yuan Congressional, Kaohsiung’s former mayor Han Kuo-yu may become the next President of the parliamentary body. Chang said it will be a disaster for Taiwan if Han, a pro-Beijing politician, can control the island’s legislature.
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