Donald Trump has already refuted his claim that he will resolve the Ukraine issue within the first 24 hours of business.
Trump’s counselors have then acknowledged that the conflict in Ukraine can’t be easily negotiated, just as he once said he would fix the US medical problems quickly and then backtracked to saying “nobody knew that heath care was thus complicated.” Trump’s” skill of the offer” does not really work in the real world of conflict solution.
Trump’s original intention was to provide further military support to Ukraine to deter further Russian aggression. This may encourage it to bring up the topic of the board.
Stopping aid to Ukraine might be a different tactic to help it deal. Trump would demand that Ukraine surrender its territory and establish an 800-mile demilitarized buffer zone ( to be guarded by NATO or European troops ) once “peace talks” started.
Trump is friendly to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that joining NATO poses a menace to Russian protection. Therefore, Ukraine would have to give up on aspired to actually join the local security bloc.
Russia, in turn, may get big restrictions pleasure, while a portion of the proceeds from , tariffs , on Russian energy imports would become allocated to , Ukraine.
Trump’s peace plan was engineered by Russia-Ukraine special envoy Keith Kellogg ( a highly decorated three-star general ), who recently canceled an upcoming trip to Kyiv. Trump has already indicated that he wants to speak with Putin in order to “get the war over with.”
The biggest challenge is that Putin does not really want to make a deal, despite the plan’s numerous obstacles. Yes, in October, Russia was losing 1, 500 troops a day and the country was, and still is, struggling to recruit men.
With the onslaught of severe sanctions and being forced to spend tens of billions of dollars on defense rather than other government services, the Russian economy has had to deal with a lot.
All of this is irrelevant because Putin is so obsessed with Ukraine and her eventual victory. Russia might even be in a recession, as has been predicted in 2025, but that would still not be enough to force it to accept any compromise.
Putin categorically opposes Ukraine becoming a sovereign state. He either wants to control or destroy it. A weaker or nonexistent Ukraine would be a major blow to the United States ‘ position as a strongman in Russia, as well as a positive one for Putin’s legacy.
Unsurprisingly, Russia has already rejected the US’s unofficial suggestions, despite the fact that it has not yet seen an official statement on the subject. Putin favors serving as president during the war, and many Russians are willing to accept this new normal when they are under attack by oppression and inspired by patriotism.
Russia’s lack of compromise
Russia doesn’t think it needs to compromise. Putin is aware that he is much more determined than the West to defend Ukraine.
There are undoubtedly indications of fatigue in Europe for continuing to support Ukraine. In a YouGov poll of seven European countries ( France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the UK, Sweden and Denmark ), continuing support for Ukraine until Russia withdrew was found to be as low as 31 % on average, compared with around 40 % for encouraging a negotiated end to fighting, even if Ukraine lost territory.
In addition, lawmakers and the general public are exhausted in the US. Therefore, Congress, which is currently largely governed by the Republican party, may object to the provision of additional weapons to Ukraine.
In 2023, Republican opposition to Ukraine’s support already caused enormous delays. And while Republicans in Congress have been waning in favor of keeping the aid levels in Ukraine despite the Biden administration’s recent announcement of a new tranche of US$ 500 million, which is a portion of a total of$ 175 billion since the 2022 invasion.
This largely reflects the sentiments of the American public. In a Gallup poll conducted in December 2024, 48 % of people support US aiding Ukraine in regaining control of the land lost to Russia, marking the first time this percentage has fallen below the majority.
Support for Ukraine is also incredibly polar, with 74 % of Republicans and 30 % of Democrats wanting to end the conflict right away. Additionally, 67 % of Republicans think the US is doing too much.
Ultimately, it is likely there will be no peace deal any time soon because Trump does not really care about Ukraine, and doesn’t understand foreign policy. Adam Kinzinger, a former Republican congressman, recently claimed that Trump pursued foreign policy in the manner of a” three-year-old.”
Trump cares more about impressing Putin ( or being seen as a deal-maker ) than supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty. His vice-president, J. D. Vance, has been more direct about it, stating in 2022:” I gotta be honest with you, I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another”. This view could have a devastating effect on willingness, and commitment, to negotiate.
According to analysis by US historian Robert Kagan, without US aid, Ukraine will lose the war within the next 12-to-18 months. Yet, for every square mile Russia gains, it loses 40 men – a heavy price to pay ( Ukraine’s total area is 233, 100 square miles ).
The initial proclamations that Trump would resolve the Ukraine crisis in 24 hours were campaign bluster that showed little awareness of the conflict’s intrusibility and the difficulties of establishing a new administration.
A few weeks ago, Trump stated that part of his plan “is a surprise“. The surprise factor extends beyond the general public. Perhaps Trump has no idea what his next steps will be when it comes to putting an end to this conflict. And that could play perfectly into Putin’s hands.
Natasha Lindstaedt is professor in the department of government, University of Essex
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.