A staff of diplomats from Indonesia has been in Washington for much of April and into May to examine trading relations with the world’s largest economy, which is expected to be in the Top 5 in a generation.
The Southeast Asian nation was one of the hardest hit by President Donald Trump’s proposed 32 % charge on its exports to the US, which included the broad-based taxes that were announced on April 2, 2025. Trump then reversed, allowing any additional taxes to go beyond the new 10 % required for a 90-day wait.
Indonesia, whose second-largest export industry is the United States, has so far indicated that it will negotiate with the United States more than retaliate with sanctions like some other nations that Trump has targeted, such as China and Canada.
Indonesia might actually make concessions by relaxing protectionist measures intended to boost domestic companies. People who have known me for a while may say I’m the most patriotic, but we must be realistic, said President Prabowo Subianto.
Trump’s tax plan is a significant first test for Subianto, a right-wing political whose view was shaped by years of military service. He views Indonesia and its place in the world as a whole through the lens of skeptic power politics, aiming to ensure that Indonesia has the necessary hard military might and strong financial standing.
Subianto hopes that by pushing both, Indonesia is not simply swayed by international control and can prevent local unrest as a result of any economic malaise.
His decision to rule the country of 280 million people is motivated by his desire to maintain friendly relations with both China and the United States by working closely with them for both economic and protection.
Great neighbors, multilateral development
Indonesia’s foreign policy has been tied to the” Bebas dan Aktif,” or” Free and Active,” doctrine since it formally gained its independence from the Netherlands almost 80 years ago.
The policy was developed by the nation’s first president, Sukarno, at the start of the Cold War to keep the nation formally nonaligned from any significant power union. While Jakarta continued to be an established independent in international policy while getting much closer to the West and the US during the later long-term authoritarian president of Suharto.
Subianto served in the military under the leadership of Suharto, who at one place was even his father-in-law. Subianto has pledged to implement a “zero foes, one thousand friends” as Indonesia’s head. That strategy comes from two fundamental points.
Second, he tries to secure financial contracts that will help him deliver on his promise of 8 % economic development. Next, he wants to improve security cooperation and defense procurement to develop Indonesia’s military position.
Toward globalism
Subianto has attempted to reframe some of the ideas that have long governed Jakarta’s foreign policy plan as a part of his eyesight.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has been Indonesia’s collective security buffer for decades, acting as a crucial component of its” Mandala” or” concentric circles” approach to foreign policy.
But, Indonesia’s absence from the ASEAN casual interviews on Myanmar in December 2024 shows that the current leadership has so far shown an unwillingness to use the local system as a tool for projecting strength.
That is just one of several signs that Subianto is trying to change Indonesia’s function from a local actor to a prominent global player.
With the country joining the BRICS group of nations in January 2025, the first time a Southeast Asian nation has been admitted, a critical step in that more confrontational approach was made.
Indonesia has begun discussions with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership as additional steps toward multilateral cooperation.
Subianto’s view, which states,” If you’re not at the desk, you’re likely to end up on the menu,” is at the heart of much of this impulse toward international wedding.
critical relationships
However, the crucial connections are still held by the US and China despite Subianto’s wider international ambitions.
Subianto made his first international diplomatic trip to China during the first few days of his administration. As a result, there were contracts between China and Indonesia value up to US$ 10 billion, with a focus on clean technology and technology.
The visit can be seen as part of a broader shift toward Beijing, which was particularly notable given that Jakarta appeared to move closer to China’s position on conflicting geographical says in the South China Sea.
Presently a profitable export market for Indonesian goods is China’s large population. China has outperformed the US and Japan as Indonesia’s main trade market since 2016 and is now its biggest exporter.
In light of Trump’s taxes, that trend is likely to increase as Jakarta works to reduce the cost of American business. Even though Jakarta has indicated independence regarding the wider US-Chinese conflict, Jakarta and Beijing came to an agreement in mid-April to improve bilateral security participation in the South China Sea.
The US also occupies a significant area in Subianto’s head. Subianto, a young man, received training in cybersecurity and special forces at US military installations.
He was afterwards ordered to leave the US for travel from 2000 to 2020 because of the numerous human rights violations he had committed while working for Indonesia’s special forces device, Kopassus, which resulted in his being forcefully expelled from the Indonesian army in 1998.
Subianto was appointed as Indonesia’s security minister by then-President Joko Widodo, but the ban was voided after that administration’s first Trump administration. He was then invited to Washington in 2020.
In November of this year, Subianto’s next official presidential residence was in Washington. Subianto and President Joe Biden spoke about diplomatic relations between Indonesia and the US, regional security issues, and various global issues while on the road. Additionally, Subianto contacted President-elect Trump for a simple phone call to congratulate him on winning the election.
Given the stakes of the joint trading relationship, it is likely that Trump will have a significant relationship right now.
After China, the US is Indonesia’s second-largest buying partner. In 2024, Indonesia exported$ 28.3 billion to the US while importing$ 20.2 billion. This amount of trade was estimated to be worth about$ 38.3 billion.
An Indonesian trade delegation has been negotiating with Trump administration officials in an effort to avoid tariffs of 32 %, indicating its desire to purchase more American products, negotiate trade agreements, and even lower native content demands for Indonesian-made products to allow for more American-made parts.
promoting expediency
Of course, Indonesia and the US continue to differ, not just in terms of their current deal dispute but also in other areas, including the Israel-Hamas conflict. The largest Muslim-majority nation in the world has long supported Israeli rights and had a strong grip on Israeli plan.
Subianto also appears to be open to rationality, with reviews that the Indonesian government is reportedly promoting normalization of ties with Israel in an effort to alleviate adherence to the OECD.
In a similar vein, one can anticipate that Subianto will prioritize Indonesia’s security and defense participation with Trump while avoiding any potential conflicts that may arise.
Indonesia is pursuing a international policy under Subianto that emphasizes the value of maintaining strong and active diplomatic ties with the US. It is also strengthening its partnership with China at the same time. And aside from both, it is asserting its individual independence by strengthening its standing in numerous multilateral organizations.
How Subianto handles all of these relationships is likely to determine the course of his administration.
Gilang Kembara is a research fellow at Nanyang Technological University.
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