Quantitative and Qualitative Polarization Trends
David Woo and David Goldman take stock of polarization trends across economic, market, and political arenas, including a decline in the share of Chinese foreign reserves held in US Treasury securities, and various dimensions of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza.
Military conflict risks: Spillover of Israel-Hamas war
David Woo analyses the results of the RIWI-Unbound Military Conflict survey, which found that some 40% of Israelis and Iranians expect military conflict between their two countries to intensify in the coming weeks, a slight decline from the previous week.
Investment themes in a polarizing world
Scott Foster and David Woo examine a range of investment options linked to themes linked to negative polarization risks for the Eurozone, reserve diversification away from Treasuries by the likes of China and the Saudis, the tech race in electric vehicles and semiconductors, and more.
Germany under siege and ready for government change
Uwe Parpart examines the declining support for Germany’s ruling coalition parties and growing support for the opposition parties, particularly due to their stance on migration, and suggests that a government change in Germany is becoming increasingly likely.
Ukraine’s Zelensky faces diminishing Western support
James Davis discusses growing concerns within the Zelensky government in Ukraine regarding diminishing Western, especially US, support. The Ukrainian leader believes that to maintain global attention on Ukraine, he must continue offensive operations despite personnel shortages.