Tensions are high in the fiercely contested South China Sea, which the approaching US leader could intensify or ease in the event that he decides to go after Donald Trump’s subsequent inauguration.
Once more, the Philippines and China are at odds with one another over the long-distanced Scarborough Shoal, with their sea forces dangerously close to a near-clash in the contested waters.
Chinese coastguard ships fired water cannons and side-swiped a ship from the Philippines ‘ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources ( BFAR ), which is tasked with surveying and securing Philippine fisheries resources in the country’s exclusive economic zone ( EEZ ).  ,
The near-clashes also involved a dangerous encounter between a Chinese navy vessel and Philippine coastguard counterparts, which, according to Philippine official sources, faced, “blocking, shadowing and dangerous maneuvers” from the People’s Liberation Army-Navy ( PLAN ) vessel.
China’s Coast Guard maintained that its actions were “professional, uniform, reasonable and lawful” and immediately shifted the responsible by maintaining” the duty lies entirely with the Spanish side”.
According to the Chinese beach guard,” China imposed controls on Spanish ships that attempted to enter the territorial waters of China’s Huangyan Dao [Scarborough Shoal ]”.  ,
The most recent tragedy was quickly downplayed by notable Chinese authorities. According to the Global Times state spokesperson, Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Chinese National Institute for Maritime Law and Policy,” The Philippines is trying to fuel the South China Sea issue by continually creating trouble so as to generate fresh discourse materials for the mental war of building the” China threat “rhetoric.”
China’s maritime forces simply conducted routine operations and “necessary control measures” to defend the Asian nation’s maritime claims based on the so-called “nine-dash line,” a sprawling map that an international court at The Hague rejected as “illegal” in 2016 under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS).
China rejected the 2016 judicial tribunal decision, which lacked an enforcement system.
” We consider that a steep increase on the part of the People’s Republic of China”, Jonathan Malaya, a Philippine National Security Council director, told the media, underscoring the growing feeling of concern in the Philippines.
The Philippines even cautioned that it reserves the right to take more drastic measures in response. Vice Admiral Jose Ma Ambrosio Ezpeleta of the Spanish Navy, for his part, has suggested that the country could use its own “gray area” strategy to combat China while doubling down on conventional military prowess with allies.
The Philippines ‘ important supporters were quick to show support and, consequently, condemn China’s latest actions.
Another alarming record of harmful actions by Chinese warships against Asian vessels close to Scarborough Shoal. Such steps raise conflicts and the risk of misunderstanding. ]Britain ] urges adherence to International Law and underlines the primacy of UNCLO S”, the UK Ambassador to Manila, Laure Beaufils, said on her X account.
Japan ‘s , adviser to Manila, Endo Kazuya, criticized China’s “use of ocean gun and obstructed tactics undermine the health of ship and crew” and reiterated that” Japan upholds the rule of law and opposes any steps which increase conflicts”.
” Risky behavior against PCG and BFAR boats undermine Indo-Pacific stability and security. ]Germany ] recalls UNCLOS and the 2016 arbitrary award and calling for the value to international law”, German Ambassador Andreas Pfaffernoschke, who has overseen a major rise in bilateral security ties in the past year, wrote on his X accounts.  ,
However, US Ambassador MaryKay Carlson criticized China’s “unlawful usage of water guns and dangerous manoeuvres” that” stricken a Spanish sea operation on December 4 and put lives at risk. She reiterated that the US will support a rules-based get in the area alongside its convention allies.
The Philippines ‘ most recent joint naval exercises with Japan and the US in the South China Sea coincided with these new conflicts. The training brought up the Spanish Navy send BRP Andres Bonifacio and a C-90 little aircraft, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft and Japan’s Murasame-class battleship JS Samidare.
According to the AFP and US Indo-Pacific Command, their most recent training are “in accordance with international law and with due consideration for the protection of transportation and the rights and interests of different says.”  , The allies emphasized the need to “uphold the right to , freedom of navigation , and overflight]and ] other lawful purposes of the sea and international airspace”.
It’s no obvious what is simply driving China’s latest activities. However, some experts believe that the Asian power is trying to create favorable conditions and a certain level of dominance before confronting the incoming Trump 2.0 administration, which may decide to use a more aggressive or transactional strategy based on the forces ‘ balance.
As Kyiv and Moscow work to design the terms of any upcoming “peace deal” under Trump, a similar, but more perilous scramble has already been occurring in Ukraine.
China even seems troubled with Manila’s foreign policy way in recent years under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, most notably his administration’s decision to network, if not attain, the US state-of-the-art Typhon weapon system, already positioned in a northern Philippine province facing Taiwan.
In a recent editorial, the state-backed China Daily accused the Philippines of provocation, saying,” The mid-range missile launch system, which is capable , of firing both Tomahawk cruise missiles and the SM-6 surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, is aggressive in intent as it puts not only , southern Chinese military bases within range, but also the Taiwan Strait, and a large part of the South China Sea”.
For the Philippines, on the other hand, the status quo is increasingly unsustainable. It is currently considering the use of naval assets for routine patrol missions, a powerful move that could stoke new tensions and entice China’s much larger navy to use forcefully.
Vice Admiral Ezpeleta has also discussed the potential use of unconventional tactics to better defend Philippine claims.
” We have to support the actions of our white ships, such as our coastguard. Another]method ] is we have to enhance our maritime domain awareness”, the navy chief said at a recent Senate hearing.
” I would also like to point out that one of the ways to leverage is to make friends with our allies or our like-minded navies. We have a lot of efforts, especially in our modernization, let’s say for deterrence purposes”.
The Philippine naval chief declined to provide more information about the country’s upcoming actions. The Philippines might consider using physical force without weapons to avenge harassment by Chinese marine forces, similar to India, which has been engaged in numerous clashes with Chinese forces in disputed territories in the Himalayas.
It might also think about deploying more auxiliary forces as well as receiving more assistance from civil society organizations in the disputed areas.
Additionally, a greater reliance on drones, large transport ships, and fast patrol boats is likely to be considered in order to support Philippine resupply missions that China has previously harassed in disputed waters. It is also known that the option would be to welcome direct joint patrols and an expanded over-the-horizon American military presence.
Ultimately, however, the Philippines will likely rely on support from its major allies, most notably the US. In fact, Manila is anticipated to press the incoming Trump 2.0 administration for more assurances of the mutual defense treaty in the event of a crisis as well as the transfer of high-tech weapons systems like the Typhon.
Philippine authorities are determined to hold the line until Trump is in charge to stop China from occupying the territory Manila claims as part of its EEZ.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian