MANILA – In the latest sign of escalating tensions in the disputed South China Sea, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has suspended a “hotline” with its Chinese counterpart. The move comes amid China’s de facto blockage of a Philippine marine detachment at the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, the latest flash point between the two rival claimants.
“We’re no longer using the PCG-CCG (Chinese Coast Guard) hotline…It no longer exists…It hasn’t provided so much benefits for us. We didn’t gain anything from this,” declared Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson of the PCG.
“I would say that for all maritime incidents [with China] that happened in the past six years even in the past [Duterte] administration, this hotline was attempted to be used. Unfortunately, it never really gave us a positive chance to talk” he added in a mixture of Filipino and English.
The bilateral coast guard hotline was established under a memorandum of understanding signed during former President Rodrigo Duterte’s much-vaunted visit to Beijing in 2016.
Despite welcoming a “new golden age” of bilateral ties with China, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration has flipped the script on Duterte’s accommodative stance by taking an increasingly defiant position on the sea disputes amid warming defense ties with the United States and its allies.
Encouraged by Marcos’ tough stance, Philippine officials and experts are now contemplating even more radical moves to fortify the Southeast Asian nation’s South China Sea claims.
In particular, Marcos Jr is coming under growing pressure to greenlight the full refurbishment of the grounded World War II-era vessel BRP Sierra Madre in the contested Second Thomas Shoal, where a detachment of Philippine marines has been asserting de facto control since 1999.
There are growing calls on allies, especially the US, to either escort resupply missions that China has harassed, if not directly help construction activities in the area.
Meanwhile, some Philippine officials have gone so far as to suggest that Marcos Jr offer its key bases in the area, particularly on Thitu Island, as a potential site for American troops under an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
Meet halfway
At the heart of rising tensions in recent days is the Chinese Coast Guard’s use of water cannons to disrupt Philippine resupply missions on the Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal.
“The [Department of Foreign Affairs] also expressed our disappointment that the Department was unable to reach its counterpart through the maritime communication mechanism for several hours while the incident was occurring,” Philippine Foreign Affairs spokesperson Teresita Daza said.
During a recent forum in Manila organized by Beijing-friendly elements in the Philippines, the Chinese Embassy’s deputy chief of mission Zhou Zhiyong called on the Marcos administration to “meet [China] half-way” and honor an alleged past promise to withdraw the grounded vessel from the shoal.
The Chinese official claimed that his country “has repeatedly expressed its willingness to resolve differences with the Philippines through bilateral dialogues. We hope that the Philippines side will abide by the existing consensus and cherish the hard-won situation in our bilateral relations. Meet the Chinese side halfway and find an effective way of managing the situation on the sea through diplomatic consultations.”
“The Philippine side… made explicit commitments to do so. The representations were put on record and well documented…It’s been 24 years and the Philippines side has yet to honor its commitment,” Zhou claimed without providing any evidence of such a bilateral agreement.
“The Chinese side, however, has always exerted the utmost restraint, with a view to maintaining the relations with the Philippines and safeguarding regional peace and stability,” he added, flanked by Beijing-friendly journalists in a high-profile forum in Manila.
But China’s claims were roundly dismissed by Philippine officials. Last week, Marcos Jr categorically denied that the Philippine government had ever made such promises to China, reiterating his opposition to any compromise on the disputed feature, which falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
China and its impresarios have claimed that the former Joseph Estrada administration (1998-2001) offered to withdraw the vessel not long after grounding it to assert the Philippines’ claim in the area. Just a few years earlier, China forcibly seized the nearby Mischief Reef, sparking panic and fury in Manila.
Estrada’s two sons in the Philippine Senate, however, emphatically denied the existence of any such agreement.
“During my phone conversation today with former senator and former defense secretary Orly Mercado, who held the position of defense secretary during my father’s tenure, he confirmed that there was no agreement or promise whatsoever made to the Chinese government,” Senator Joseph “Jingoy” Estrada Jr said when asked about his father’s policy.
The senator, who heads the national defense committee in the upper chamber, dismissed Beijing’s claims as “hearsay” in the absence of any clear evidence.
“This is only hearsay. The Chinese government had made press releases that was made verbally – this will not stand even in court because these are all hearsay. Name names, because we’re also at a loss on who really made the promise,” he added in a mixture of Filipino and English.
Raising the stakes
With the rusty, dilapidated vessel expected to give way in the near future, there is growing pressure on the Marcos Jr administration to make more assertive moves in tandem with allies.
“We can have joint patrols with the US at the same time [as the next resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal]. We can calibrate it,” former senior associate justice Antonio Carpio said in a forum.
“They sent their Navy together with the survey ship and the drilling ship, and, at the same time, the US and Australia conducted naval drills in the same area – that’s for Malaysia. For Indonesia, the US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan happened to pass by,” he said, referring to joint US-Australian patrols when Malaysia began challenging China’s unilateral oil exploration activities in contested sea areas.
Earlier, Carpio also suggested that Manila take the ongoing disputes to the United Nations General Assembly in order to rally global pressure on China.
Dindo Manhit, a leading Filipino policy analyst, echoed a similar line, arguing that the Philippines should “maximize joint patrols and be shepherded by allies and friends during the resupply. Not to cause war but simply to exercise our own rights based on international law. Our military facility is within our exclusive economic zone.”
Others, however, have gone further by suggesting the Marcos Jr administration place its occupied islands in the South China Sea under America’s security umbrella.
Earlier this year, Cagayan de Oro City Representative Rufus Rodriguez publicly called for the inclusion of the Thitu Island, the second-biggest naturally-formed land feature in the Spratlys under full Philippine control since the 1970s, on the list of EDCA sites where US troops have rotational access rights.
“It is in our national interest to pursue and expand our defense partnership with the US to deter further aggression from China in the West Philippine Sea and possible Chinese seizure of islets that belong to us under international law,” he said in a statement.
“The expanded EDCA should be further broadened. More sites along our western seaboard, where Chinese aggression and harassment of our fishermen have been taking place, should be covered,” he added.
Although the Marcos Jr administration will likely shun such radical proposals since even the US might have second thoughts about directly assisting Philippine control over contested features, many in Manila are hoping that stronger military ties with allies would enhance the country’s deterrence vis-à-vis China.
With or without that US commitment, a moment of reckoning appears to be approaching in the disputed waters.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on Twitter at @Richeydarian