Paving the way for ex-PM Yingluck’s return

Social observers appear to be agreeing that Yingluck Shinawatra‘s returning to his country has been planned.

The problem has recently attracted new attention from the public as a result of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s most recent remarks regarding the potential profit of his sister in April of next year.

Thaksin participated in the plan for regional elections in Udon Thani province, and Nikkei Asia on Monday released an interview he gave.

According to Thaksin, who was quoted as saying,” He did not see any obstacles to her return,” possibly just before or during the Songkran festival in April, depending on the circumstances.”

Yingluck, 57, has been a runaway since August 2017 when she failed to appear before the Supreme Court’s Criminal Case Division for Holders of Political Positions to read its decision on a cost of dereliction of duty in a rice-pledging program that caused at least 500 billion ringgit in costs.

A warrant for her imprisonment in the rice-pledging case is still in place, and she was later given a five-year jail sentence.

Following the Supreme Court’s failure to uphold the wrongdoing and collaboration event involving her administration’s 2-trillion-baht infrastructure projects, discussions about her potential return started to gain momentum in March of this year. The National Anti-Corruption Commission ( NACC ) decided not to appeal the ruling.

The Supreme Court cleared her of all charges in December of last year in connection with the transport of a secretary-general to the National Security Council in 2011.

However, the NACC’s investigations into circumstances stemming from her career have been terminated, intensifying debate she is closer to returning home.

The single remaining problem is Yingluck’s five-year prison term. The Bangkok Post spoke with experts about the” Thaksin’s model” and amnesty bill that Yingluck might follow as alternatives to the legal penalty.

The route home

Thanaporn Sriyakul, chairman of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said a Yingluck returning in April following month is not so far-fetched.

According to him, the criminal former prime minister is free to pursue the same course of action as Thaksin, who requested a royal pardon and was given a pardon after six months in jail.

According to him, Yingluck will benefit from the Department of Corrections ‘ ( DoC ) regulations governing the detention of prisoners outside of prison, noting that the location may even be disclosed prior to her arrival.

According to Mr. Thanaporn, the DoC has rules in place to reduce the length of Yingluck’s prison word, which could mean a shorter time for him or her.

By that point, I do n’t believe an amnesty law will be in effect. Her return likely resembles that of [ Thaksin’s ] “big boss.” He claimed that the DoC has policies in place to protect against criticism from criticism as well.

The scientific claimed that more than 100 others will gain from the DoC’s rules for detaining prisoners inside of prison, and their families will be more than happy to agree to the arrangement.

” If Yingluck meets the criteria, it’s the end of the debate. Critics will stay annoying but that’s also understandable”, he said.

He claimed that the justice minister, who is in charge of the DoC, may be required to respond to all inquiries made by the government.

Additionally, Mr. Thanaporn noted that it is still to be seen how the decision Pheu Thai Party may capitalize on Yingluck’s current circumstances to increase its popularity.

When Thaksin inquired about the possibility of Pheu Thai winning 200 MP seats in the upcoming elections, he said the Udon Thani Provincial Administrative Organization ( PAO ) chairman’s election outcome would be crucial.

The election, which takes place on Sunday, is a two-horse race between Pheu Thai and the main opposition People’s Party ( PP ). Both parties mobilized their powerful candidates to canvass the territory.

Anything less would indicate that the Pheu Thai Party is losing its hold on this northern state, which is considered the” money” of the red-shirt movement in the Northeast, according to Mr. Thanaporn, who said the group may secure a landslide victory.

If Pheu Thai loses, the group will have a difficult time back because it must also contend with the Bhumjaithai Party, he added. 80 % of the parliament’s members are Pheu Thai, he added.

No asylum expected

Because the bills have n’t made much progress, Pheu Thai list-MP Wisut Chainaroon said an amnesty law is unlikely to become law by April.

According to him, Pheu Thai will likely make its own type of an asylum bill, and the issue must first be presented to the party’s proper committee in order to decide its position and direction.

The group will evaluate the four asylum proposals and determine the best course of action when they are submitted for the House evaluation, he said.

While the group has yet to get an placement on the amnesty, having it include der majeste offences is off the table, while social cases will be carefully considered, Mr Wisut insisted.

Besides domestic discussions, Pheu Thai will have to hold conversations with coalition partners, and the government may rely on one person, Mr Wisut said.

When the next parliament program begins, PM’s Office Minister Chousak Sirinil announced that the group will submit an amnesty bill to congress along with other editions from different factions on December 12.

Four other asylum expenses have been suggested by different parties, according to Mr. Chousak, who is also Pheu Thai’s constitutional professional and head of the House committee studying an amnesty bill.

Because MPs are back at work in their particular provinces during the legislature break, according to Mr. Wisut, who is also the chief authorities whip.

He refrained from assuming that Yingluck’s transfer would enhance the party and bolster it against the PP.

” We’re happy if she comes back after several years ]in self-imposed exile]. But we have no aspirations about what she’ll complete”, said Mr Wisut.

A matter of how

Pol Maj Gen Supisal Pakdinaruenart, assistant chief of the PP, said Yingluck’s profit is plausible given the responses from different figures, including Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong.

According to Pol Col Tawee, Yingluck would need to pursue legal techniques, which included going through court procedures and adhering to the Corrections Department’s regulations.

But, Pol Maj Gen Supisal said it is still to be seen how the rules may help her avoid jail time.

He claimed that the justice system had long since collapsed and that the government’s conservative and elite leaders have used every means to maintain their personal interests.

Pol Maj Gen Supisal said Yingluck’s victory may also increase Pheu Thai’s standing among supporters in Chiang Mai’s northern province, but it does n’t pose a threat to his party.

” We may notice them forming a coalition to fight the PP,” he said. But Pheu Thai has another sturdy competitors too, like Bhumjaithai in the Northeast”, Pol Maj Gen Supisal said.

When Thaksin claimed that Pheu Thai aims to get 200 votes in the upcoming general election, the PP deputy president inquired about the possibility of forming a Pheu Thai-PP partnership.

If the Pheu Thai Party grabs as many as 200 seats, it will have to take the additional seats from the Bhumjaithai Party, not the PP, he noted.