Pahalgam attack: Will India suspending Indus Waters Treaty affect Pakistan?

May India be able to quit the Indus River and two of its streams from entering Pakistan?

Following Tuesday’s horrifying strike in Indian-administered Kashmir, India suspended a significant agreement governing the water sharing of six rivers in the Indus valley between the two nations. That is the question that is on some people’s minds.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty ( IWT ) was regarded as an example of trans-boundary water management because it survived two wars between the nuclear rivals.

India has taken a number of actions against Pakistan, including one that accuses it of supporting cross-border violence, which Islamabad vehemently refutes. Additionally, it has responded by imposing mutual sanctions on Delhi, and it has stated that preventing water flow” will be regarded as an Act of War.”

The Indus basin’s three eastern river, the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej, were given to India by the convention, while Pakistan received 80 % of the three northern people, the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

In the past, there have been heated arguments, with Pakistan responding to some of India’s electricity and water infrastructure projects because they would lower river flows and violate the treaty. ( About 80 % of Pakistan’s agriculture and roughly a third of its hydropower are dependent on the water in the Indus basin. )

In response to factors like climate change, India has been pushing to revise and change the treaty. It is citing changing needs, ranging from water and having water to hydropower.

Pakistan and India have engaged in legitimate fights as a result of the World Bank’s mediation of the agreement.

However, this is the first time either side has announced a expulsion, and somewhat, India, the inland nation, gives it a distinct advantage in terms of geography.

What does expulsion, however, actually mean? Could India restrict or hold back Pakistan’s supply of water from the Indus basin, thereby denying it its lifeline? And is it actually capable of doing so?

According to experts, it’s virtually impossible for India to stop the northern rivers from releasing tens of billions of square meters of water during high-flow times. It lacks both the considerable canals and the huge storage infrastructure required to divert these quantities.

According to Himanshu Thakkar, a local water resources analyst with the South Asia Network on Dams, Streams, and People,” the system in India is primarily run-of-the-river hydropower plants that don’t require extensive storage.”

Without reserving a lot of water, these hydropower plants use the power of running water to roll windmills and produce electricity.

American experts claim that the treaty’s limited infrastructure has prevented India from using yet its 20 % of the Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus waters. This is a major justification for creating storage structures, which Pakistan opposes citing agreement provisions.

Without Pakistan’s knowledge, experts claim that India is now update its existing infrastructure or construct new ones to divert water.

” Unlike in the history, India may now not be required to reveal its task documents with Pakistan,” said Mr. Thakkar.

However, obstacles like challenging terrain and protests in India itself over some of its jobs have prevented the construction of water equipment in the Indus basin from moving quickly enough.

American officials from the government of water resources had promised to speed up the construction of many dams and waters safe-keeping projects in the Indus valley following a violent attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in 2016.

Sources claim that development has been slow despite there being no established information on the status of these projects.

Some experts believe that Pakistan may experience the effects during the dry winter, when water supply is already at its lowest, if India begins controlling the flow with its existing and potential system.

In the Dawn paper, Hassan F. Khan, associate professor of industrial environmental legislation and environmental studies at Tufts University, wrote that” a more pressing problem is what happens during the dry period- when the flows across the lake are lower, storage matters more, and timing becomes more crucial.”

” That is where the absence of treaty constraints could start to become more perceptive.”

India is required to share hydrological data with Pakistan in accordance with the treaty, which is essential for flood forecasting and planning for irrigation, hydropower, and drinking water.

Former Indian IWT commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena informed the Press Trust of India news agency that Pakistan can no longer share flood data with the nation.

The monsoon season, which starts in June and continues until September, causes severe flooding in the area. However, Pakistani authorities claim that India was already sharing a sizable amount of hydrological data.

India’s former Indus Waters Treaty additional commissioner Shiraz Memon told BBC Urdu that “only about 40 % of the data was shared by India before it made the most recent announcement.”

If the upstream country can “weaponize” water against the downstream country, another problem that arises frequently when there is water-related tension in the area.

This is frequently referred to as a “water bomb,” in which the upstream nation can temporarily hold back water before suddenly releasing it without any prior notice, causing significant downstream damage.

India: Could it do that?

According to experts, India would first run the risk of flooding its own territory because its dams are far from the Pakistani border. However, it may now be able to remove silt from its reservoirs without giving a damn about it, potentially causing damage downstream in Pakistan.

High silt levels are carried by Himalayan rivers like the Indus, which quickly build up in dams and barrages. Significant downstream harm can be caused by sudden flushing of this silt.

The Brahmaputra basin’s downstream of China and Tibet are two other important Brahmaputra basins, respectively, where the Indus originates.

After India warned that “blood and water cannot flow together” following a militant attack in northeast India, which India blamed on Pakistan, China blocked a Yarlung Tsangpo tributary, which would become the Brahmaputra.

China, which has Pakistan as an ally, claimed to have done it because it was necessary for a hydropower project they were building close to the border. However, it was believed that Beijing was intervening to aid Islamabad at the right time.

China approved the construction of what will be the largest dam in the world along Yarlung Tsangpo after it constructed several hydropower plants in Tibet.

Beijing claims that the river’s flow has little to no impact on the environment, but India fears that it might exert significant control over its flow.