It appears that there is growing global support for a two-state answer to the Israeli-Palestinian issue now that Norway and Ireland have announced that they have recognized Palestine as an impartial state and Spain is expected to follow suit by the end of May.
The idea has long been supported by the United States, its friends, the majority of Arab countries, and the UN. Hamas changed its charter in 2017 to allow Israel to exist on the basis of its borders established following the six-day conflict in 1967. It apparently indicated a determination to subdue if a Palestinian state were to be established recently. However, Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister’s current Israeli government, is unwaveringly opposed to a two-state option.
Had things be different under different command? To respond to this, we must first determine whether a program like this could be accepted by Israeli and Palestinian citizens. What polling tells us is worthwhile examining around.
Lawmakers must far also frequently resort to blaming the electorate for their inadvertent actions. This is especially real of failed conciliation. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR ) has tracked the support for the two-state solution from 2016’s polls at 51 % and 53 % for Palestinians and Israeli Jews to a low of 33 % and 34 %, respectively, in 2022.
However, unfortunately, pollsters in both Israel and Palestine, who produce excellent function to the highest professional standards, have had little or no chance to gauge public opinion in favor of a prosperous serenity process. They evaluate the situation as it is in the context of loss. Rather, they need to evaluate what might be and how attitudes might change as a result of a proactive political leadership determined to bring about peace. With such command the statistics change drastically.
Most recently, on the Palestinian side the Institute for Social and Economic Progress asked the two- state solution question in March 2024 in the context of” serious negotiations” and got a 72.5 % positive response. In contrast, the results from PCPSR, released a few months earlier in December 2023, showed only 34 % of Palestinians ‘ support for the two-state solution when presented without the context of serious negotiations. Plainly” major conversations” are the key.
On the Israeli side, a ballot run for the Geneva Initiative in January 2024 got a result of 51.3 % support for the two- position option. In particular, this was framed as a “return of the victims partnership to build in the future a non-military Arab position in the West Bank and Gaza and complete standardization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.” This was only two percentage points below the PCPSR’s high level of assistance, which was 53 % in 2016.
Security has always been major concern for Israelis, and when that is taken into account, success in negotiations can be guaranteed. According to the Institute for Social and Economic Progress ‘ March 2024 surveys, considerably demilitarizing a future Palestine is never a deal-breaker for Palestinians.
According to a PCPSR poll conducted for the Palestine Peace Initiative in March 2024, 50.4 % of respondents agreed with the two-state solution if they also received protection and an unbroken position.
The second step in the implementation of the two-state answer appears to be to mix all the components necessary to make it successful.
Also, the scale used is crucial. In actual conversations, it is crucial to know where the “red outlines” are and what the people may be persuaded to embrace under a supportive political leadership.
In Northern Ireland, where public opinion polls were used to detail every element of a peace agreement, the people were asked what was: “essential” ( a red line ), what was “desirable” or “acceptable”, what was” tolerable” ( not wanted but with political leadership could be made into a “yes” ) and what was “unacceptable” under any circumstances ( another red line ).
When we used this range to determine support for a two- position solution in 2009, just 21 % of Israelis and 24 % of Palestinians considered it “unacceptable”. In polls I conducted in January 1998 that found it to be “unacceptable” for 52 % of Protestants and 27 % of Catholics, this compares very favorably with comparable results for views of power sharing in Northern Ireland. Despite this, with democratic management from the UK, Ireland, the US and EU working up, peace was made.
With the complete support of the global community, it is obvious that the same can be done for Israel and Palestine.
Positive polling
Just to be sure, Mina Zemach, the researcher I work with in Israel, ran the TSS issue from 2009 once more in May 2024. For the first time, the studies are published below. The effect among Israeli interviewees was 43 % “unacceptable”. It was not as great as the 2009 outcome– but also better than the effect for Northern Ireland, where harmony was achieved.
The two-state answer must become thoroughly tested, along with all the beneficial tools for both domestic and international use, in order to maximize the chances of achieving peace. And when we are aware of that special solution, follow it. Put a twist on history to put an end to this utterly unending conflict.
Colin John Irwin is a study fellow of the Department of Politics, University of Liverpool.
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