After a US-brokered peace ended the quickly escalating hostilities between India and Pakistan on May 10, they both came out of the precipice of catastrophe. However, tensions are also higher.
On May 12, Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, stated that India may “retaliate on its own words” to any problems if it only “paused” its martial actions against Pakistan.
On April 22, the most recent instance of these nuclear power ‘ long-running fight was sparked. 26 tourists were killed in the picturesque beach city of Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir when members of a class known as The Resistance Front, which India claims is a proximate to the Lashkar-e-Taiba extremist group, were killed there. India alleges Pakistan’s engagement, which it denies.
The fact that India and Pakistan were able to reach a peace as the escalations slowed is a source of optimism. It demonstrates how inside estimates and international stress can help the two parties revert from the brink. The ceasefire, but, represents a extremely fragile peace. Can it be kept up?
According to latest experience, there are potential for continued settlements between the two claims. India and Pakistan’s army signed a peace in February 2021 to put an end to four weeks of cross-border fighting. An initial ceasefire agreement from 2003 was reiterated in the new contract.
Only two transgressions were recorded across the border that for the rest of the time, separating India- and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, before one was discovered in 2022. This compared to 4, 645 such situations in 2020.
The drop in funding gave the impression that Kashmir’s armed rebellion, which both India and Pakistan assert in total, was in decline. Security resources in India estimated that there were only 77 effective militants operating on the American side of the border in March 2025, only one fortnight before the fatal Pahalgam attack.
The domestic and international force on Pakistan contributed to the decrease in crime. Pakistan was added to the “grey list” of the 2018 “grey list” by the Financial Action Task Force, an organization that monitors nations ‘ efforts to combat terrorist financing and recommends economic sanctions against non-compliant state.
Pakistan was forced to take a number of plan steps to combat terrorism financing as a result of this list. In 2022, Pakistan was removed from the list because its counterterrorism strategy had significantly improved.
However, because the Kashmir issue is at the core of Pakistan’s national personality, it has frequently been used as a political plan to shore up local support. This approach has also been used in recent years as Pakistan’s potent military has been dealt with multiple economic and political problems.
For instance, the acceptance of Pakistan’s military significantly decreased after Imran Khan’s arrest in 2023. Asim Munir, the Army’s captain, has been prompted by this to apply tensions with India to divert attention.
Munir has referred to Kashmir as “our throat vein” and pledged not to “leave our Kashmiri sons in their traditional struggle.”
After India’s May 2024 public elections were held happily in Kashmir, a rare event since the secessionist rebellion started in 1987, there were more and more insurgent tries to cross the border into India.
These transnational operations are supposedly carried out by Pakistan’s so-called Border Action Teams, which are made up of Muslim special causes and militants from separatist groups. Pakistan has previously acknowledged the existence of these organizations.
By April 1st, incident-related tit-for-tat shooting across the line of control had now outnumberned the entire incidents in 2023 and 2024.
Fragile tranquility
The most recent ceasefire was reached as a result of conflicts that had risen above previous degrees. Military sorties were carried out from military installations in north-western India and heavy within Muslim place.
Other people in Islamabad’s steps were also widely believed to be attempts to indicate the country’s nuclear abilities. The National Command Authority, the body in charge of regulating and using Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, made the decision to join.
It’s possible that the alert may not have been true. Especially concerning is the potential commitment to use nuclear weapons, given that, unlike India, Pakistan does not have a “no-first-use” atomic weapons plan.
As a potential political and economic force, India has a strong interest in preserving the peace. New Delhi wants to present itself as pragmatic and responsible, capable of a continuous spot on the UN Security Council.
Nonetheless, some of the actions taken by India following the Pahalgam strike may convince the insurrection in Kashmir to gain more support. This increases the chance of coming escalation between India and Pakistan.
India has ended the Indus Water Treaty, which regulates the flow of water from the Indus River. Pakistan, which is located river of India, is greatly dependent on the river for both water and public usage.
Involvement from global powers like the US might once more help stop hostility from getting out of hand in the future. But, interesting discussions are doubtful.
The US has offered to operate as a mediator as the country engages in intensive negotiations with New Delhi over lowering tariffs on American imports. Pakistan has greeted this with enthusiasm. However, India maintains that it would like diplomatic discussions to a third party when it comes to Kashmir.
It is now obvious how quickly things can escalate between India and Pakistan, despite the Trump administration first indicating a hands-off strategy to relationships between them, calling it “none of our business.”
Even if a full solution seems unlikely, the US and other interested parties, including China, will likely continue to try to regulate and control the fight, whether directly or indirectly.
M. Sudhir Selvaraj is an associate professor of peace studies and global development at the University of Bradford, and Alex Waterman is the lecturer.
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