As Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr enters his third year in office, the country’s infamous “war on drugs” shows no sign of ending.
The extrajudicial killings have continued despite several promises from the president and his administration, including a 2022 election promise that he would take a more holistic approach to the drug war.
At the time, Marcos Jr promised a “different way”, with a focus on prevention, rehabilitation and education through the Buhay Ingatan program. The aim was to save, not take, lives.
In April, the new Philippine police chief, Major General Rommel Francisco Marbil, promised a similar approach, telling media “there is no need for a drug war” and that police should “always follow the rule of law” when it comes to tackling illicit drugs.
This raised hopes that Marcos Jr was finally looking to end drug war-related killings. Such an approach would have marked a sharp break with former president Rodrigo Duterte, who unleashed a wave of violence that killed thousands of Filipinos between 2016 and 2022.
At the time, Duterte called for the “slaughter” of drug sellers and users and offered to pay the legal fees of any police officer accused of extrajudicial killings. Human rights groups claim the death toll is much higher than official estimates, which they claim may be as high as 30,000 people. Many Filipinos saw the election of Marcos Jr as a fresh start.
But a report from the University of the Philippines Dahas Project has revealed Filipinos continue to be killed in anti-drug operations. Between July 2023 and June 2024, Dahas reports 359 people were killed, more than the 342 recorded killings the year before.
The government has promised to go after big fish, but most victims have been small-time dealers or users, or people with prior drug convictions. Troublingly, 21 people killed had no connection to the drug trade at all, while only 42 people killed were defined as big-time dealers or involved in drug syndicates.
There is also a transparency problem. The administration does not systematically report deaths from anti-drug operations or drug-related extrajudicial killings. This has led to accusations that drug-related deaths are being significantly underreported.
Marcos Jr has also flatly refused to cooperate with an ongoing investigation into drug killings by the International Criminal Court. In January, the president told media that he would not “lift a finger” to help the ICC investigate the drug war. In April, he publicly refused to hand over Duterte if the court sought to arrest the former president.
But Marcos Jr and his officials remain steadfast the strategy has changed – and that it is working.
The administration has pointed to record seizures of illicit drugs, including the “biggest drug haul in Philippines history” in Batanga in April worth 13.3 billion pesos (US$227 million) and the arrest of 49,700 drug users and dealers, including 3,248 “high-value targets.”
There has also been a dramatic uptick in rehabilitation, with the administration claiming more than 300,000 Filipinos have undergone drug rehabilitation programs since July 2022.
The administration has also said that 67% of districts have been declared “drug-cleared” and 14% “drug-free” while 17% are “yet to be cleared.”
But while Marcos Jr has undeniably tried to take a more holistic approach to the Philippines’ drug problem, the numbers do not lie.
An estimated 701 people have been killed on Marcos Jr’s watch since he won office and the number of people killed in 2023 and 2024 are more than the 302 killed in Duterte’s last year in office. Drug-related killings are going up, not down.
Dahas also reports that while killings by state agents have decreased by 23%, killings from vigilante groups or unidentified persons have increased. This suggests the administration has lost control of the drug war, with it increasingly being waged by criminal groups.
This dispels the president’s claim his strategy has been “bloodless” and raises serious questions about Marcos Jr’s ability to end the drug war.
But there are steps the president can take to show he is serious about tackling drugs and saving lives.
The first is to stop extrajudicial killings by holding perpetrators to account. While a Philippine court recently convicted four police officers for the drug-related killing of a father and son in 2016, only eight officers have been convicted since the drug war started, and few vigilantes are ever identified or held to account.
The solution is to signal to law enforcement and vigilante and criminal groups that anyone guilty of extrajudicial killings will face justice, including long prison terms. This will go a long way to ending a culture of impunity within the police force and tackle the lawlessness that has pervaded the drug war.
Marcos Jr also needs to show Filipinos he is serious about atoning for past crimes so the country can move forward. This can be achieved by fully cooperating with the ICC and its investigation into killings under Duterte.
While the former president withdrew the Philippines from the ICC in 2018, the court still has jurisdiction for crimes committed beforehand. Marcos Jr needs to respect the court’s authority and allow it to investigate and prosecute those involved in killings from 2016 onwards, including former and current government officials.
The investigation also presents Marcos Jr with a political opportunity. Duterte is an outspoken critic and cracks have appeared between Macros Jr and Duterte’s daughter Sara, who is vice president and a presidential hopeful for 2028.
Cooperating with the ICC can achieve two goals, looking tough on extrajudicial killings and holding those responsible to account while de facto discrediting the Duterte clan in the eyes of Filipinos. It is a potential win-win scenario for the president.
Marcos Jr has had 2 years to fulfill his promise to end his predecessor’s drug war. But despite attempts at a more holistic approach, the data shows that Filipinos continue to be killed on the streets of Manilla, Cebu and Davao City.
A course correction is required, one that is not just tough on drugs but also tough on a culture of impunity and lawlessness. Unless Marcos Jr takes a harder line on the problem, nothing will change and Filipinos will continue to die on his watch, despite his promises to stop the killings.