Political member and Vice President Kamala Harris says she did not speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Ukraine’s battle, which is NATO’s conflict, is going badly. NATO’s prospect is in question.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was just forced to cancel a forthcoming “peace summit ” ( officially postponed to a future time ) because no one wanted to come, has made it clear he will not negotiate with Moscow under any situation.
Zelensky understands that any agreement he might render to Russia may be dangerous for him. As his military is beginning to dissolve, Zelensky is relying on the Azov Brigade, an elite system that some say is trying to wipe clear a neo-Nazi intellectual stain from its predecessor unit’s story. Because Zelensky is unlikely to move, various “peace formulas ” being floated in Europe won’t change anything or influence the outcome.
The standard Euro-idea is to try and freeze the conflict, recognize that Russia will continue to occupy parts of Ukraine for now and take Ukraine into NATO – or, if that is n’t possible, provide some other sort of security guarantees for the future.
Under this method, Ukraine could recover its defense, gets its business back on track, and confront the Russians some years in the future when the leads are healthier.
The Russians don’t had to accept the latest thought that, owing to Zelensky, it is dead on appearance. Of course that won’t prevent Europe and some in Washington from pushing the proposal anyway, while shoveling more arms to Ukraine, hoping the Ukrainians may hold out until well after the US elections.
If Ukraine go chest up before the end of October, it would be panic for the Democrats in the US and also may likely crumble the German government, perhaps even the weak French regime. Most professionals don’t think that will happen. But most specialists usually are bad.
However, for their part the Russians won’t take a peace in place since it offers them everything. The Russians clearly want Ukraine to be demilitarized and neutral, and they probably won’t accept NATO-led security guarantees ( although Russian public statements are ambiguous ). Officially Russia wants Luhansk, Donbas, Zaphorize, and the Crimea recognized ( all have been annexed to Russia ), and it demands protection of Russian-speakers in Ukraine.
There is little or no possibility that Russia’s needs will be met, both by the recent Russian state or by most NATO states. For that reason, the Zelensky difficult line, so long as it lasts, guarantees that Russia’s actual goal will be to remove Ukraine’s government immediately with one suitable to Russia and willing to agree to Moscow ’s says.
If the Russians you pull it off, then NATO will have to decamp, something it may do anyways if the empire is to keep any credibility. However, despite a lot of bravado, the chance to revive NATO as a military alliance does not seem appealing.
There are tremendous causes why NATO is floundering, despite images. The biggest reason of all is that NATO has been expanding without paying attention to its need to be a reliable defense empire.
Ukraine is part of that expansion, and under US and EU force, the growth is spreading to the South Caucasus, as far as Armenia.
A greater NATO is an ally without reasonable territories, as is extremely clear. That is why Ukraine is getting chewed up, despite Northern arsenals having been emptied in the work to save it. The Russians won’t abuse the South Caucasus including Armenia when the day comes
It is unfortunate that NATO has talked itself into this disaster. NATO now is about growth, no defense. When it comes to defence, NATO is wholly reliant on the United States and the determination to take the US Army, Air Force and Navy to support NATO expansion.
NATO enlargement as a plan requires substantial military commitments by America’s supporters. That won’t arise. It is fair to ask: What does the US get by supporting an interventionist NATO policy? There is growing discomfort in the United States about the hundreds of billions wasted on Ukraine, with no settlement nowadays possible. At some point that plan will result in a big walk-back from the NATO ally, and from any responsibility to protect Europe when it really does little to protect itself.