Hassan Nasrallah’s execution on September 28 in an Israeli attack hits Iran, which has lost its most important alliance in the Middle East, head of a decisive blow.
Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, the fight between Israel and Hezbollah has reached its most sour levels in recent days. Hezbollah launched a new front against Israel the day after Hamas ‘ terrible terror attack on October 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians killed in their homes close to the Gaza border or at the local Nova music festival.
Hezbollah, which has been labeled a terrorist organization by the US and UK institutions, quickly showed its support and cooperation with Hamas and instantly launched rockets at both civil and military targets in northeastern Israel.
The Israeli authorities evacuated around 100, 000 residents who lived close to the Lebanese border out of fear that Hezbollah might launch a similar incursion into Galilee and cause a massacre of the Jewish human population. These individuals have now been forced to leave their homes for a time.
Until recently, the fighting between the celebrations was characterized by relatively small power. Israeli civilian and military targets have been bombarded by Hezbollah with hundreds of missiles and robots.
Since October 2023, lots of Israelis have been killed, primarily in the northeast of the nation. Hezbollah goals in Lebanon, including jet depots and other military system, have been targeted by the Army with airstrikes and ordnance fire.
However, some people believed that the markets were not at a level that Israel and Hezbollah could start a full-scale conflict.
12 children were killed on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights in July as a result of a Hezbollah jet harm. In reply, three days later, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s most top commander, the mind of its corporate system, Fuad Shukr, in an attack in Beirut.
Since then, the crime has gradually gotten worse. The IDF launched a , proactive strike , against Hezbollah weapon rockets that were poised to strike targets inside Israel on August 25 as Hezbollah was preparing to launch a big rocket attack on the northeast and center of the country. The Zionist security government announced in mid-September that its conflict objectives included the return of displaced people from the nation’s north.
Days after, in a very complex procedure, dozens of Hezbollah pagers exploded, killing lots and wounding hundreds of Hezbollah extremists. The following morning, Hezbollah’s community of walkie-talkies was targeted in the same way.
Israel has never taken any responsibility for either of these occurrences, but it is unconfirmed that they severely damaged Hezbollah’s authority.
Two weeks after that, on September 20, Shukr’s son, Ibrahim Akil, was killed in an Israeli attack in the Dahieh district of Beirut, along with dozens of top commanders of Hezbollah’s wealthy Radwan power.
Operation Northern Arrows
However, all of these actions were just the start of Operation Northern Arrows, which started on September 23. 1,600 Hezbollah targets, including hundreds of jet and missile launchers, were among the human population of Lebanon when the Israeli air force attacked.
Hezbollah has responded by firing missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems. It is estimated that Hezbollah had an army of 150, 000 missiles, including platform and long-range weapons. Many of these have then been completely destroyed by Israeli strikes.
Hezbollah also has precision-guided weapons and drones, but new Jewish attacks have eliminated many of Hezbollah’s chain of command and significantly disrupted its operating equilibrium. The military chain of command of Hezbollah has almost been completely destroyed as a result of the execution of many of its top leaders and then Nasrallah himself.
Tehran has not yet indicated that it will use force to support Hezbollah. The benefit of serving as one of the region’s most significant proxy may be questioned by this.
In this framework, some in Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a and Gaza are absolutely asking themselves then what is the benefit of being Iran’s messengers, if the latter leaves them only to encounter Israel.
Ceasefire doubtful?
In order to prevent this from turning into a wider geographical issue, the main hope for Hezbollah and Lebanon itself, into whose economic and political institutions Hezbollah has become so strongly rooted, is that the global community will order a stalemate on both edges.
The US and France have pushed for a 21-day stalemate. However, it appears that Israel is determined to keep the defense campaign against Hezbollah, just like it did its occupation of Hamas in Gaza.
The world is currently anticipating Israel’s troop deployment to Lebanon. Now, hundreds of people in the south of the nation have emigrated from the northwest. However, it is not at all sure that Israel wants to return to Syrian land despite a declaration from the IDF’s chief of staff, Maj Gen Herzi Halevi, that the Army is preparing to launch a surface activity in Lebanon.
In May 2000, the IDF pulled up from southern Lebanon to the international border after 18 years of occupation, and in 2006, it did the exact in , compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
A successful ground war may be delayed for the time being given the success of its battle of airstrikes in eradicating Hezbollah’s military risk.
The US and other states, including the UK, have urged Israel to put a hold on any war intentions and agree to a peace. It presents the Biden administration, which is intensely conscious of the need to maintain both Jewish and Arab citizens onside, with a difficult decision.
However, it is difficult to imagine that Biden will put pressure on Jerusalem to prevent its fight against Iranian substitute violence, particularly during an election campaign and given the special relationship between the two countries.
Ori Wertman is exploration fellow, Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, University of South Wales
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