India’s decision Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, had hoped for a landslide victory in the government’s six- year general election – the largest screen of democracy, by way, in a year of voting around the world. However, the group, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, appeared to be aiming for only a small political lot as the results were still being released on June 4, 2024.
The BJP did have 272 seats to form a federal on its own, and it will require the assistance of its coalition partners, the National Democratic Alliance, to do so.
The Indiana University spoke with Sumit Ganguly to learn more about the poll results and what they mean for American politics.
The BJP had talked about an enormous success, but it seems it will not find a lot. How do you describe these benefits?
Part of the answer lies in the Modi administration’s failure to understand that while economical benefits had been large, their distribution has been inconsistent. Both in rural and urban areas, inequality and frequent poverty are rising in India. The poverty rate for those between the ages of 20 and 24 is at a high of 44.49 %. And while that is the entire federal figure, the data does not indicate that it may be much worse in some areas.
Another reason is that Modi’s use of historical Hindu-Muslim tensions appears to have ended naturally. You can overcome the spiritual drum, and Modi did with language that included calling Muslims “infiltrators,” but then the day-to-day issues of employment, housing, and other such essentials take over, and this is what people care about most.
BJP made a misunderstanding, in my research. It failed to realize that in a land where only 11.3 % of children get enough protein, Hindu pride may be eaten – unfortunately, it’s the price of onions and other necessities that problem.
Let’s talk about Uttar Pradesh, the northern Indian state with 80 parliamentary seats. Modi and his allies are likely to lose the state, which is a crucial part of any national election. What happened?
Another instance of the same blunder is being made by the BJP across the country. Yogi Adityanath, the state’s chief minister, saw himself as a vehement Hindu nationalist leader and likely a Modi’s replacement.
But he, too, failed to take into account how his policies were playing out in the poorer segments of the state’s population, who are mainly Muslims and those at the bottom of India’s caste hierarchy.
He pursued significant infrastructure projects, including new airports and highways, which may have appealed to the middle class but not to the poor.
Additionally, years of presiding over a state government that has used police power to suppress dissent, ]often by ] the poor and marginalized, have taken their toll on Adityanath’s support.
What justifies the BJP’s entry into Kerala, a state where it is on track to make history by winning a seat in the BJP’s first parliamentary election?
For a more accurate analysis, the gains in the south will require more information on voting patterns.
Historically, the BJP has not been able to make inroads into the southern states for a number of reasons. These include linguistic subnationalism as a result of Hindi’s hostility.
The south’s practice, which includes festivals and other regional customs, is another issue. The BJP’s vision of Hinduism is based on the “great tradition” of northern India, which believes in the trinity of Brahma, Vishnu and Shiva as the creator, the sustainer and the destroyer gods.
The southern states, which also drive economic growth, ultimately subfinance the poorer states of the north. As a consequence, there is resentment against the BJP, which has long had its political base in northern India.
In order to challenge the BJP in the election, 26 opposition parties created a coalition called INDIA – the Indian National Developmental and Inclusive Alliance. Were they given a fair chance?
No, the playing field was far from level. The ruling BJP has largely co-opted the mass media to advance its goals. All national newspapers, aside from one or two regional newspapers, scrupulously steer clear of any criticism of the BJP, and major television channels frequently serve as advocates for the government’s policies.
A number of intelligence agencies are alleged to have engaged in blatantly partisan opposition party activities. Political leaders have been imprisoned on suspicion of indolence. For instance, New Delhi’s highly popular chief minister Arvind Kejriwal was arrested shortly after the election results were announced and charged with allegedly omitting liquor licenses.
Modi is expected to win a third term as prime minister despite the electoral losses. Given that the BJP got just two seats in the 1984 elections, what factors led to the party’s meteoric rise?
Unlike the Indian National Congress, the main opposition party, the BJP has established a strong organizational base throughout the nation. In addition, the Congress party has not done much to revitalize its political foundations, which had weakened in the 1970s when then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi declared a state of emergency and a first non-Congress government was elected.
Through slogans that portray Muslims as the main minority in India as the source of myriad societal issues, the BJP has also made an appeal to the majority Hindu population’s sentiments. Hate crimes against Muslims and other minorities have risen all over India in recent years.
In addition, the BJP benefited from economic reforms, including the privatization of the state-owned, loss-making Air India, which the previous Congress government had initiated in the 1990s.
In December 1992, Hindu nationalists destroyed the 16th- century Babri Mosque. How crucial was that to BJP’s rise to power? What should we expect from the BJP’s loss of control of Ayodhya?
The destruction of the Babri Mosque undoubtedly sparked a significant turnout in the Hindu electorate, which in turn increased support for the BJP. In a coalition government that included 182 out of 543 seats in the Indian Parliament in 1999, just seven years after the event, the BJP won the election. Two national elections later, in 2004, Modi assumed office as the prime minister with a clear- cut majority of 282 seats.
In January 2024, just a few months before the election, Modi inaugurated a newly constructed temple in Ayodhya, the site of the Babri Mosque. It was a carefully planned and organized event with an eye on votes.
However, BJP lost its seat in Ayodhya. People outside of Ayodhya might have enjoyed the fanfare surrounding the new temple, but city residents in the city did continue to have to deal with waste mismanagement and other issues.
What’s next for Modi? What do the outcomes reveal about Indian democracy, exactly?
It’s undoubtedly possible that Modi will form the coalition government with coalition partners. I believe that Modi, as an astute politician, will most likely learn from this setback and adapt his tactics to new realities.
The outcomes might also serve as a useful correction because the Indian voter has once more demonstrated that they may be willing to accept some things but reject others.
In the past, Indian voters have demonstrated that they tend to punish leaders who have an autocratic tendency when they see democracy threatened. This was evident when Indira Gandhi, the late prime minister, lost the 1977 elections to a crushing defeat. The country’s constitution, which forbids any civil liberties, was lifted by Gandhi’s declaration of a state of emergency. Back then, it was India’s poor who voted her out of power.
This time around, we might need to wait for more election data on how specific caste and income groups voted.
At Indiana University, Sumit Ganguly, a distinguished political science professor, is the Tagore chair in Indian cultures and civilizations.
This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.