The military government has been facing resistance from military rebel groups that have managed to force troops from some strongholds since the 2021 revolution in Myanmar.
The rebel rude last week in Myawaddy, a significant border city directly opposite Tak’s Mae Sot area, prompted many people to flee to Thailand and raised fears about a charitable and stability problems.
Srettha Thavisin, the prime minister, has instructed the Foreign Affairs Ministry and the military forces to give a clear communication to all parties involved that the conflict has not spread to Thailand.
Foreign Affairs Minister Parnpree Bahiddha-Nukara, who is visiting Mae Sot on Friday to assess the situation, has even taken steps to deal with the anticipated influx of refugees.
The Bangkok Post spoke with foreign affairs and safety experts about the situation and the government’s strategy for the conflict in lighting of the rising crime.
Junta battles to get control
Dulyapak Preecharush, an associate professor of East Asian Research at Thammasat University, predicted that Myanmar’s defense will work hard to keep control of settlements and roads that are crucial for both economic and military reasons.
Because control of the town of Myawaddy is the gateway to the eastern border, it has a power to affect the way of life for the residents of Yangon. If any group opposes the town, the military government will retake control of it.
We can assume that battlegrounds will center around strategic towns and border towns. The ethnic groups will gain from working with the People’s Defence Forces ( PDF), which are fighting the coup, he said.
The military coup in February 2021 started the violence against a civilian-elected government. A loose alliance of ethnic rebel groups and a civilian militia movement that has taken large swathes of territory are both at risk of being contained by the junta.
The academic responded to questions about the prospect of negotiations by stating that the lack of progress in some areas, such as the northern border, suggests that some sort of negotiations are taking place.
China has a significant role in facilitating a dialogue between the military and the opposition, he claimed, but fighting continues elsewhere.
He claimed that the state of the situation in Myanmar has not reached the point where all parties involved will come to terms with a ceasefire nationwide and where a consensus on the political situation could lead to the establishment of lasting peace and stability.
On possible intervention by outside powers seeking to exploit the situation for their own interests, Mr Dulyapak said there are indeed such risks, due to Myanmar’s vulnerability, vast resources and strategic location.
After the 2021 coup, China sought to control Myanmar, and it’s unclear how India and the United States will respond to maintain a balance of power, he said, noting that the US’s current focus is on the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Russia conflicts.
As Myanmar’s neighbour, Thailand should assume dual roles in mitigating the conflict, said Mr Dulyapak.
First, it is to render humanitarian aid to those who have been harmed by the fighting. If the conflict is protracted, Thailand could consider seeking assistance from Asean countries to help address the situation, in line with Asean’s Five- Point Consensus (5PC ) to solve internal issues in Myanmar.
Another function is to encourage dialogue and aid in Myanmar’s return to peace by upholding a neutral stance.
The government should think about suggesting that certain strategic areas be kept from being violent in order to prevent violence affecting residents of the Thai-Myanmar border.
He claimed that while the Thai armed forces have increased security, additional steps must be taken, such as bringing in security and economics experts to address the situation.
Dulyapak: Battle is for Myawaddy trade town
Negotiations urged
Expert in international relations and security affairs, Panitan Wattanayagorn, claimed that the border situation between Thailand and Myanmar suggests that ethnic armed groups are resuming their operations in some areas.
He claimed that the Myanmar government’s and ethnic groups ‘ recent ceasefire was the result of shared interests, but that the situation’s evolution suggests things are changing.
” In fact, this kind of situation is n’t new. However, he said,” The government’s forces are weakening this time, while the opposing groups are stronger, especially given their support of the PDF and the Karen National Union PC.”
He claimed that the regime is deteriorating as a result of three things: the growing opposition following the coup of 2021, the difficulties in providing troops with the necessary supplies and support, and the frail economy brought on by the Covid-19 epidemic and sanctions.
China has taken steps to protect its interests in Myanmar, according to Mr. Panitan, while the US is involved in various ways.
According to him, both nations are believed to be keeping an eye on the situation to protect their interests.
The Myanmar conflict may lead to discussions that could lead to the formation of independent states within the nation. However, it is unlikely to escalate to the point of fragmentation that was seen in some parts of the Balkans, “he said.
He cited Thailand’s response to the Myanmar conflict as having yet to develop a solid strategy and a team capable of handling issues relating to the Myanmar situation.
To give assurances that Thailand can lead efforts to resolve the conflict in Myanmar, he said, the defense minister, interior minister, and the secretary-general of the National Security Council must be included in the team.
We must “provide to all sides that we can rely on us to lead negotiations.” The aim is to work toward a ceasefire and seek assistance from Asean and the United Nations to address refugee issues, he said.
Mr. Panitan also criticized the government for claiming that it was ready to accept 100 000 refugees. Instead, the government ought to have taken a nuanced stance that necessitates a concerted international response.
With the assistance of all actors, we should have said we can take care of a million refugees but they will stay in Myanmar, not Thailand. We’ll act as a coordinator, “he said.
Panitan: Junta’s forces are weakening
Six- point proposal
Piti Srisangnam, an academic at Chulalongkorn University’s Asean Studies Centre, submitted a six-point proposal to the government that stressed the value of humanitarian aid and mediation.
In order to coordinate efforts, the government house and a forward command center are set up at the first two things.
The Foreign Affairs Ministry must work with the parties in Myanmar, Asean and international organizations, the Defense Ministry to bolster humanitarian operations, the Interior Ministry to collaborate with the public and private sectors in the nation, and the NSC to assess risks and formulate strategies to mitigate impacts.
A crisis or strategic communication team is required to be established to keep the public informed of the situation and stop any miscommunications.
It must stress the country’s stance on protecting its interest and sovereignty, transparency in providing assistance to all groups and non- interference in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
To organize a meeting of Asean leaders in order to reach a peaceful resolution, the Foreign Affairs Ministry should work closely with Laos, the Asean Secretariat, and the Asean troika.
A border trip should also be planned, as should the National Unity Government ( NUG) and the State Administration Council ( SAC ).
Piti: Suggests a six- point proposal