The US Pentagon is stepping up its local security politics in a strong defense of China’s rising local threats and ambitions as tensions rise in the South China Sea and the danger of a war over Taiwan escalate.
Last year, US Secretary of Defense , Lloyd Austin , held counterparts from Japan, Australia and the Philippines for what is being personally referred to as a budding fresh” Squad” security agreement in the Indo- Pacific region.
The participants” communicate a vision for peace, security, and punishment in the Indo-Pacific” and “have chartered an ambitious program to improve that vision up.” According to Austin, at a press conference held on the heels of the US Indo-Pacific Command ( INDOPACOM) summit in Hawaii.
Austin claimed that the new rectangle is quickly forming into a group for long-term security.
The” Squad” meeting took place just weeks after the four countries held their first joint patrols in the contentious South China Sea and the historic US-President Joe Biden, president of Japan, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a historic conference in the country’s fiery South.
With an emphasis on China’s expanding footprints across the Western Pacific, the four Squad nations are expected to strengthen connectivity, do more joint patrols and drills, and increase participation in intelligence and maritime protection.
The new quadrilateral grouping is being quickly institutionalized due to Marcos Jr’s difficult transition to the West and his increasingly assertive stance on Philippine claims to China in the South China Sea.
A dying Quad
In contrast to the better- known” Quad”, a security partnership comprising India, Australia, the US and Japan, the” Squad” has greater internal coherence and a clear shared strategic vision for the region. India maintains close ties with its traditional security partner, Russia, and has openly defied sanctions imposed by the West against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.  ,  ,
The Philippines is a US ally in the area of mutual defense, unlike India, and it is expected to finalize a similar Visiting Forces Agreement with Japan to the extent that it has done with Australia and the US. The Marcos Jr. administration has increased the number of Philippine bases, including those close to Taiwan, that the US has rotational military access to.  ,
The new” Squad” will likely bolster the Philippines ‘ ongoing maritime disputes with China, which have recently increased as a result of Chinese “gray zone” attacks on Philippine ships. That in turn has raised concerns about a potential armed conflict that could result in Japan and Australia becoming more popular.
China’s Communist Party- run Global Times mouthpiece has openly warned that the new” Squad” security grouping is “exacerbating regional risks”, underscoring Beijing’s growing irritation with Manila’s role as a new linchpin in America’s “integrated deterrence” strategy of counterbalancing China’s regional rise and ambitions.
India’s refusal to support the West’s harsh stance on Russia is putting strain on the old Quad. India’s refusal to support Russia’s actions at the UN or to abide by Western sanctions, including those imposed on its vital energy industry, shows this.
In fact, the Narendra Modi administration has steadfastly supported Russia as a significant strategic partner.
India has continued to purchase advanced Russian weapons systems, much to the consternation of the West, while significantly expanding its imports of cheap Russian oil. Meanwhile, India has pushed back hard on what it sees as Western “hypocrisy” and neo- colonialism.
S. Jaishankar, the country’s foreign minister, criticized the current leaders for using their production capabilities and for using institutional or historical influence to systematically sabotage a lot of those capabilities during a conference on the Global South countries.
The reality is that there are still many times the right things in the world today, he continued, putting India as a leader among the emerging powers and the global South, which China is also cultivating through a stronger trade and investment relationship.
India has also refused to join any coalition or major exercises to restrain Beijing’s maritime ambitions despite its contentious border disputes with China. In fact, the South Asian power appears more interested in pursuing strategic cooperation with rival superpowers in order to maximize its own potential as a “major power.”
Emboldened in Manila
This contrasts starkly with the Philippines, which consistently votes in favor of Western democracies in important UN decisions, including those regarding Russia and Myanmar.
Through increased naval and coast guard deployments and legal proceedings, Manila has also actively pushed back against China in the South China Sea. Additionally, it has increasingly active defense cooperation with both Australia and Japan, making it a US-US ally under the defense treaty.
Without a significant change in Philippine foreign policy under Marcos Jr., the four-way Squad’s formation “would n’t have been possible.”
Manila consciously avoided any anti-China coalition or organization that promoted stable ties with all major powers throughout the previous Rodrigo Duterte administration. Marcos Jr.’s initial hedging strategy also signaled a similar commitment to the Duterte era’s “friends to all, enemy to none” mantra.
The president of the Philippines switched gears by quickly boosting security cooperation with traditional allies led by the US after a largely fruitless state visit to Beijing last year that failed to lead to any breakthroughs on still-unsolved bilateral issues, including those involving the South China Sea.
Most recently, Marcos Jr. signed a new comprehensive strategic partnership pact with Australia and expanded the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement ( EDCA ) to give the Pentagon access to additional bases in the northern Philippines.
Following numerous collisions between Philippine and Chinese maritime forces in the South China Sea, which have recently caused injuries to Filipino service members and damaged vessels, the urgency for a new “quad” grouping has grown.
The new” Squad”, inter alia, will reportedly regularize joint patrols in the South China Sea, expand maritime security coordination and intelligence- sharing in the Western Pacific, and help to accelerate the Philippines ‘ military modernization.
Even so, it’s unclear from the beginning how the” Squad” can more effectively deter China’s “gray zone” strategy, which includes its frequent use of water cannons and swarming tactics against Philippine maritime forces in disputed sea areas like the Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.
There is a chance that the” Squadron” will encourage both China and the Philippines to adopt more assertive and uncompromising positions, escalating their differences further.
In response to the recent” Squadron Meeting,” Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert, stated that” the US is clearly trying to rally its allies – Japan and Australia – to support the Philippines, encourage the Philippines to engage in more military provocations in the South China Sea, exacerbate the complexity of the regional situation, and then find excuses to bolster the military presence of the US, Japan, and Australia in the South China Sea.
The Chinese expert warned that “interference of foreign countries and forces in]the ] South China Sea issues will only make the situation worse in the region, and flaunting their military might will affect normal regional cooperation and may also lead to conflicts.”
China clearly sees the new quadrilateral grouping as a component of America’s containment strategy, while the Philippines sees it as a legitimate effort to defend its sovereign rights and uphold a rules-based order in the maritime region. For the foreseeable future, there will likely be continued brinkmanship and escalation in the South China Sea.
Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian