A nine-judge panel’s decision today led to the dissolution of the opposition Move Forward celebration, a lurch back for Thai politics, for campaigning against a significant royal insult law.
The group’s top executives will be barred from politics for ten years by the unanimous decision, but it will reportedly be possible for its parliamentarians to re-establish under the umbrella of a fresh, good Thinkakhao Chaovilai Party. Sirikanya Tansakul, a Move Forward MP but never executive, is expected to lead the second incarnation of the group.
The most popular and probably explosive verdict downgrades the most popular party in the general election of last year, which won 151 of 500 seats primarily on the promise to implement broad, comprehensive, and very anticipated, dynastic, military, and monopoly business reform.
Most critically, perhaps, it won 32 of 33 seats in Bangkok, the traditional center of the village’s political and economic power, and heart-of-the-nation ground zero for several color-coded opposition actions that over the years have pressed and at times successfully toppled perceived authoritarian or corrupt institutions.
The traditional Senate, which was appointed to the time, rejected Move Forward’s attempt to form a government because it demanded that possible coalition partners sign an MOU to change the der majeste law, known as Article 112, the top government agenda item.
Party leader and candidate for prime minister Pita Limjaroenrat was allegedly ordered to the house on a delayed weekend night and barred from moving forward with 112 reform, but the royal advice allegedly failed to be taken into account the following Monday. According to the options, it’s unclear whether that alleged sequence of events was considered a factor in today’s choice.  ,  ,
The 112 laws, which shields the king, queen, successor and monarch from any small or condemnation, allows for 15-year jail penalties for guilty decisions. Walk Forward says no fewer than 272 Thais, including 20 under the age of 18, have been charged with lese-majeste since 2020.
After 15 times in self-exile, the second-ranking Peua Thai and Move Forward combined to form a government with military-aligned and another conservative-leaning functions. This lobby agreement led to the election of coup-torn group supporter Thaksin Shinawatra and the release of party sponsor Thaksin Shinawatra, who had been imprisoned for 15 years.
The group was simply required to stop its activities and pronouncements around the rules when the judgement from January 31 was reaffirmed in today’s decision. Based on that earlier ruling, the Election Commission requested the group’s dissolution.  ,  ,
The bomb decision is consistent with court-ordered dissolutions of four past political parties, often on the grounds of bribery, which had dared to challenge the village’s liberal elite with power-wielding bases in the bureaucracy, defense and palace.  ,  ,
In addition to being influential from behind the scenes while spearheading a progressive grassroots movement, the 2020 court ruling to dissolve Move Forward’s parent company Future Forward and ban its top executives, including original party co-founders Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, who both continue to hold the office.
Crucially, this ruling is the first to specifically forbid a political party from challenging the monarchy, which unprecedentedly brings the monarchy into political turmoil. Prior to the ruling, King Vajiralongkorn called for unity in a speech last week honoring the country’s founders and did not comment on the situation.  ,
Leaders of Move Forward sent a number of questions regarding how the organization might respond if it was banned. In an open letter released last week, Party leaders warned against avoiding encouraging demonstrations because they believed street chaos would endanger lives and provide a pretext for a military coup.
Move Forward supporters gathered at the party’s headquarters rather than the Constitutional Court, presumably to prevent it from assuming that the party was pressuring the court before important court decisions against party supporter Thaksin Shinawatra.  ,
In his open letter, Pita claimed that Thailand’s transitions would require peaceful transitions led by credible elections and that the party was in a “long-term contest” with conservative interests.
He claimed that even if the party disbanded, it would still hold provincial elections in 2025, the Bangkok governor’s election in 2026, and national elections in 2027.
That does n’t mean, however, Move Forward’s legions of now disenfranchised supporters wo n’t seek to voice their discontent on Bangkok’s streets – with or without the party’s overt backing.
Prior to the event, Future Forward supporters had planned “flash mobs,” in which case supporters were only given social media tips about protest sites to stay a step ahead of idiopathic police and security forces.
That was when progressive protestors had a clear target in the military-aligned, ultra-royalist Prayut Chan-ocha government, which first came to power in a 2014 democracy-suspending coup and later in a 2019 election that barred criticizing the military on the campaign trail.
Importantly, Srettha Thavisin, the prime minister of Peua Thailand, previously stated before the court’s decision to not interfere with the Move Forward case. That’s likely true, though Peua Thai stands to gain politically with the dissolution of its upstart, more-youthful ally cum rival.
That raises the question of where potential orange-garbed pro-Move Forward protests, whether organically mounted or tacitly orchestrated, might gather and vent. Political protests against royal palaces or symbols have undoubtedly never occurred in the kingdom, but there has never been a time when top vote-getters have been banned for royal reasons.  ,