China’s growing J-20 cunning warrior ships, bolstered by new cutting-edge systems and home engines, is gaining fast on the US as it grapples with rising costs, development delays and domestic debates over the future of air dominance.
This month, defense resource Janes reported that China’s People’s Liberation Army-Air Force ( PLAAF ) has rapidly expanded its fleet of Chengdu J-20″ Mighty Dragon” fifth-generation fighters, with 12 air brigades equipped as of May 2024.
According to Janes, based on recent satellite imagery, this number has significantly increased from only 40 in the first year to over 70 in the first year alone.
It says that the J-20, designed to competitor America’s F-35, plays a key role in China’s plan to work power beyond its southern threats, particularly in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and Western Pacific.
The implementation of the aircraft across vital theater commands, according to the report, highlights China’s commitment to enhancing its fifth-generation air power.
Also, Janes says the PLAAF is also replacing older J-11s and Su-27s with J-20s, supported by progress in domestic website systems like the WS-15 that have reduced China’s rely on Russian-made engines.
Nonetheless, the report points out that cost aspects, with each J-20 priced at US$ 110 million, may reduce output. It mentions that China’s growing defence resources, projected at$ 232 billion in 2024, supports more fighter purchasing.
Janes says this development may push the US and local powers, including Japan and South Korea, to expand their fifth- and sixth-generation warrior programs, intensifying military investing in the Asia-Pacific area.
China’s rapid expansion of its J-20 fleet, which outsmarts the US in advanced stealth fighter numbers, is causing the US to struggle with rising costs and delays in updating its close F-35 program, which could affect China’s position in the Pacific.
The US halted F-22 fifth-generation warrior output in 2011, capping its ships at 187. Meanwhile, the US Government Accountability Office ( GAO ) noted in May 2024 that the program’s costs had soared to over$ 2 trillion, with modernization efforts adding$ 16.5 billion.
The document mentions that the F-35’s development, including radar and website upgrades, has been delayed due to program security issues and unknown electricity and heating requirements despite reaching full-rate production.
While the report says that while about 630 F-35s are currently in service, with plans to acquire approximately 1, 800 more, projected sustainment costs have risen from$ 1.1 trillion in 2018 to$ 1.58 trillion in 2023, partly due to efforts to extend the aircraft’s service life to 2088.
Although the report mentions efforts to reduce costs, such as improving parts ‘ reliability and maintainability, which have saved an estimated$ 84 billion, repair times remain slow, reducing the jets ‘ availability for missions.
In addition, the report says the US Air Force and US Navy have reduced their planned annual flying times by 19 % and 45 %, respectively, to meet affordability targets.
The balance of air power in the Pacific may have already been shifted to China’s favor as a result of these difficulties. The US combat air force is 12 squadrons short of all other aircraft types, according to Asia Times in September 2022.
Those shortages are  , most acutely felt in the Pacific, where the US has only 11 of 13 required fighter squadrons in the region.
US pilots ‘ skill levels may also be affected by reduced flying hours. A fighter pilot needs 200 hours of flight time annually and three or four practice flights each week to maintain proficiency. A pilot’s abilities may decline with just one or two sorties per week.
Powered by cutting-edge domestic engines and advanced avionics, China’s J-20 program is rapidly closing the technological gap with its US counterparts, transforming it into a formidable force in modern aerial warfare.
In a May 2021 article for ISIC Japan, Roger Cliff says that the J-20 boasts advanced stealth features, including a small radar cross-section achieved through external shaping, radar-absorbent materials and internal weapon carriage.
Cliff says the J-20 is equipped with a wide-band, active electronically scanned array ( AESA ) radar, similar to the F-22’s APG-77, and advanced datalinks for secure networking.
China’s aerospace industry has long relied on quality jet engines, but Asia Times reported in July 2023 that China’s J-20 stealth fighter could have overcome that handicap by using domestically produced WS-15 jet engines, potentially closing capability gaps with US jets.
China’s WS-15 engines, rivaling the US-made F-22’s Pratt &, Whitney F119 engines, reportedly have a thrust rating in the 150-kilonewton range. This upgrade departs from the less powerful Russian Saturn 117S and Chinese WS-10C engines, which limited the J-20’s speed and combat effectiveness.
Cliff mentions that China’s aerospace industry also focuses on developing high-temperature-resistant materials, integrally bladed rotors and full authority digital engine control ( FADEC ) systems to enhance engine performance.
He says thrust vector control technology, demonstrated in the J-10B, is being integrated to improve maneuverability. Additionally, he points out that China’s development of advanced air-to-air missiles, such as the PL-15 and PL-21, further enhances the J-20’s combat capabilities, targeting high-value aircraft to gain air superiority.
By enhancing China’s military autonomy, reducing supply chain vulnerabilities, and improving performance and independence from foreign technology, these advancements improve the J-20’s operational effectiveness.
While China’s J-20 fleet grows, the US faces tough choices: double down on sixth-generation fighters to outmatch China or pivot to cost-effective solutions to maintain its edge in the Pacific.
According to Asia Times, the US Air Force’s NGAD ( Next Generation Air Dominance ) sixth-generation fighter program is confronted by significant obstacles due to tight budgets, challenging technology, and shifting air dominance theories.
NGAD aims to replace the aging F-22, which was originally intended to serve as the centerpiece of upcoming US air superiority. However, due to rising costs, which are estimated to cost$ 300 million per aircraft, and the increasing preference for unmanned systems and emerging technologies over traditional crewed fighters, the project has experienced delays and uncertainty.
US Air Force leaders have resisted fully committing to the program despite Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman remaining competitors in the NGAD competition.
The US Air Force is also grappling with the pricey modernization of its F-22 fleet, which will require a$ 22 billion investment over the next ten years, compounding these issues.
Meanwhile, the broader air superiority debate now centers on whether the US should invest in costly sixth-generation fighters or shift focus toward more adaptable, cost-effective solutions like light fighter aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles and space-based systems.