The Middle East conflict has considerably gotten worse as we approach the anniversary of the September 7 assault on Israel. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza with the rocket launch that the Iranian regime has really made on Israel.
In recent days, Israel has struck lots of priorities in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and the Beirut neighbourhoods in addition to the killing of major Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, as well. Additionally, it has limited the scope of the conflict to contain a ground invasion into Lebanon.
Despite US work continuing, the possibility of some sort of peace in Gaza and the surrounding area seems ever more out of reach.
A spokesman for the US State Department said after the Iranian missile attacks that” we are not going to give up on reaching a peace in Gaza because we think it is the best way to release the victims.” But he afterward added, referring to Hamas,” You need both parties to participate, and right now, we have a refusal to engage by one of those events”.
Before the November 5 election, President Joe Biden’s team had been hoping that there would be no social success there, which is becoming more and more probable.
Some claim that this is due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire to win the election and force the US to confront Iran.
Stalemate blocked
In July, the US appeared to be moving toward a stalemate. However, Ismail Haniyeh, the assassination of Hamas political leader, was carried out in Tehran ( which Israel has not acknowledged ).
Some claim that this was a deliberate attempt to incite Iran into the issue and a direct blow to the chances of a peace. Yahya Sinwar, the more tolerant Haniyeh, took Yahya Sinwar, the more radical Hamas chief, for the interim.
The US was suddenly hopeful of a peace deal in September, but Netanyahu torpedoed the offer with last-minute needs. In addition, the demands were made for military men to be barred from entering northeastern Gaza during a later ceasefire and for Israel to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a constricting strap along Gaza’s border with Egypt.
Reports suggested that Netanyahu had used delay tactics and consciously undermining conversations over the summertime. What, then, serves as the social justification for preventing harmony?
Netanyahu is betting on Trump winning the election and having a US lover who is more difficult to manipulate than Biden. Netanyahu has bragged about influencing Trump to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, a groundbreaking agreement that the Obama administration created in 2015 to impose sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear programme. Some people thought it was a step toward achieving global peace.
Trump’s controversial move to relocate the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim even as their capital, was also a victory for Netanyahu and the Jewish straight.
Egyptian American election styles
Despite Trump’s absolute support for Israel, several Arab Americans are more likely to vote for Trump ( or at least voting against Kamala Harris ) in November.
Israeli American citizens have usually typically chosen the Democratic ticket, with approximately 70 % of Jewish people identifying as Democrats. This is important as there are sizeable Jewish communities in swing states such as Pennsylvania ( with 433, 000 ), Florida ( with 672, 000 ), and Georgia ( with 141, 000 ).
Recent polls indicate that 72 % of Jewish voters support Harris in the election against Trump. And despite the claim that 75 % of American Jews value Israel, it came in just ninth place among 11 issues regarding how important their vote is to be.
The same ca n’t be said for the Arab-American communities, who have been devastated by the conflict in Gaza ( and now Lebanon ) and are angered by Biden’s response to Israel. Israel has just received another US$ 20 billion in fighter jet and other weapons while the US has used political pressure to demand a peace. Since the start of the Gaza war, this is one of the biggest army deals ever.
60 % of Arab Americans polled chose Gaza, and 57 % said the conflict in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why, according to a survey conducted in May, nearly 80 % of Arab British voters dislike Biden. Only 55 % have an unfavourable view of Trump.
Arab Americans are uneasy about supporting a government that failed to stop the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, despite the fact that they do n’t necessarily approve of Trump. They may either not voting or ballot for a third-party member.
And Netanyahu is betting on how the vote will turn out in Trump’s favor. Arab Americans constitute a critical voting bloc in swing states, such as Pennsylvania ( 126, 000 Arab Americans ) and Michigan ( 392, 000 Arab Americans ).
It’s likely that the Jewish American vote from 2020 to 2024 wo n’t change, but Arab Americans supported Biden nationally with 64 % support in 2020, and in the key state of Michigan provided Biden with almost 70 % support. In a position where Biden won with just 154, 000 vote, this might change the outcome.
In a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Michigan in August, only 12 % of Muslim American voters in that state support Harris, which is disapproportionate of many Arab American citizens. These citizens are demanding a peace.
But we wo n’t see a ceasefire anytime soon. Netanyahu was battling for his social future before the Israeli strikes on October 7. Netanyahu, who is still facing charges of fraud, corruption, and breach of trust, has consistently discredited political institutions and was repressing the press to step down.
After the assaults in Lebanon, Netanyahu is now rebounding in the elections in Israel. Netanyahu is feeling less pressure from the inside to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, and it is becoming more assured that its aggression may succeed.
In our view, the more aggressive Netanyahu’s government is ( both in Lebanon and in Gaza ), the greater the likelihood that Trump will be elected. This is exactly how Netanyahu’s plan of action works because it will allow him to appear beyond Lebanon and focus on Iran, his main concern.
Natasha Lindstaedt is teacher, Department of Government, University of Essex and Faten Ghosn is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex and Non-Resident Fellow at Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Arizona, University of Essex
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